User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 1768
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:15 pm

Welcome to the Fresno Aviation Thread 2020. Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1413219
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:29 pm

Should we start out with predictions for 2020 like many other airport threads do?

I’ll go first:
-AS’s additional service will be a success and FAT will get a second mainline flight, either to SAN or SEA.
-Volaris will add another weekly frequency to either BJX or MLM (beyond the 3rd BJX already announced), but not add any more destinations until the new concourse opens.
- AA and UA won’t add any new destinations, but will add capacity to the tune of about 10% each.
- F9 and G4 will basically stand pat with the already announced additions.
- SkyTeam will stay mostly flat to GDL and SLC.
- No new routes will start in 2020, but an announcement for either HNL or MSP will happen in 2020 for 2021.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:53 am

Strictly guesses since the industry can be so volatile.

  • A new route announcement in the next 6 to 8 weeks with a late May/early June start
  • An additional new route/service announcement happening in Nov/Dec for a 2021 start
  • Announcement of construction of another jetway gate in the existing concourse (either gate 7 or maybe more likely gate 15B)
  • O&D passenger counts increasing by 10% to 12% vs 2019
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:35 am

More thoughts...

1). F9 will drop the announced 4th weekly to DEN, staying at 3. They’ll go seasonal by fall.

2). AS will add SNA when a slot opens up.

3). AM will add a daytime to GDL so to offer something to differentiate their product from Volaris, who goes double daily to GDL.

4). AA will flip the midday DFW to a 321, ending the two midday 738’s that are on the schedule for April.

5). WN rumors will remain rumors.

6). The Master Plan will be tossed out and the airport will scramble to add gates so that WN can become a reality in 2021.

Frankly, I hope to be wrong to some degree, but from what I see and hear, some may very well happen.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:33 pm

whatusaid wrote:
1). F9 will drop the announced 4th weekly to DEN, staying at 3. They’ll go seasonal by fall.


Not looking good?
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:45 pm

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
1). F9 will drop the announced 4th weekly to DEN, staying at 3. They’ll go seasonal by fall.


Not looking good?


LF took a big drop in Aug and September. Right now, summer schedules show 4X using 320’s. No more 321’s. Luster is off? Knowing F9 schedules are good for the moment, hard to say what the future holds.
 
QXatFAT
Posts: 2336
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:51 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:30 pm

1. DL to add capacity over frequency to SLC
2. WN does not move into FAT in 2020 (agreed)
3. DL adds MSP (this is a hope and a dream)
4. AA makes PHX route A320 instead of A319
5. UA announces CRJ2's to be their official metal for FAT for the next decade :)

Happy New Year, all! And happy flying!
Don't Tread On Me!
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:13 pm

QXatFAT wrote:
5. UA announces CRJ2's to be their official metal for FAT for the next decade :)


I hear they are working with Bombardier to try to find a way to make it work on FAT-ORD! :lol:
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:19 pm

whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
1). F9 will drop the announced 4th weekly to DEN, staying at 3. They’ll go seasonal by fall.


Not looking good?


LF took a big drop in Aug and September. Right now, summer schedules show 4X using 320’s. No more 321’s. Luster is off? Knowing F9 schedules are good for the moment, hard to say what the future holds.


3X A321 = 690 weekly seats
4X A320 = 720 weekly seats

Seems like a good way to up the frequency but only add a small amount of seats. Lots of airlines do things like this when they add frequency.

What were the approximate load drops?
 
QXatFAT
Posts: 2336
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:51 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:46 pm

flyfresno wrote:
QXatFAT wrote:
5. UA announces CRJ2's to be their official metal for FAT for the next decade :)


I hear they are working with Bombardier to try to find a way to make it work on FAT-ORD! :lol:


Haha! I am sure they would try!

Speaking of UA, I do remember that they had a 737 between FAT and SFO for awhile maybe a year or two ago? Was there a reason behind that ie. needed to use the aircraft instead of parking it, or was it to try something out?

In the last thread before locked, it was mentioned by FATFlyer the ag connection between MSP and FAT. Being that I work for Land O'Lakes, we desperately want this route. Currently LOL owns 5 companies based in the Central Valley that are part of their network all doing something different (5 different company names servicing different sectors). Because LOL has agreements with DL and AA, if service was to start with SY, this would throw a big kink in their plans they have for us employees to fly.
Don't Tread On Me!
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:24 am

QXatFAT wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
QXatFAT wrote:
5. UA announces CRJ2's to be their official metal for FAT for the next decade :)


I hear they are working with Bombardier to try to find a way to make it work on FAT-ORD! :lol:


Haha! I am sure they would try!

Speaking of UA, I do remember that they had a 737 between FAT and SFO for awhile maybe a year or two ago? Was there a reason behind that ie. needed to use the aircraft instead of parking it, or was it to try something out?

In the last thread before locked, it was mentioned by FATFlyer the ag connection between MSP and FAT. Being that I work for Land O'Lakes, we desperately want this route. Currently LOL owns 5 companies based in the Central Valley that are part of their network all doing something different (5 different company names servicing different sectors). Because LOL has agreements with DL and AA, if service was to start with SY, this would throw a big kink in their plans they have for us employees to fly.


The 737 to SFO was part of an experiment UA tried where they sent mainline "terminators" from SFO to markets that were normally express only (sort of the same way DL has terminators from MSP to places like FAR and FSD). Off the top of my head, they had SFO to FAT, SMF, and SBA. None of those routes lasted though.

We'll see what happens with MSP. I would imagine that, the more companies like yours there are that ask for it, the more likely it will be to finally happen.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:38 am

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

Not looking good?


LF took a big drop in Aug and September. Right now, summer schedules show 4X using 320’s. No more 321’s. Luster is off? Knowing F9 schedules are good for the moment, hard to say what the future holds.


3X A321 = 690 weekly seats
4X A320 = 720 weekly seats

Seems like a good way to up the frequency but only add a small amount of seats. Lots of airlines do things like this when they add frequency.

What were the approximate load drops?


in Sept 2018, F9 recorded an 84% LF with mostly 321s. This year came in at 69% and that's with more far more 320's. August wasn't strong either. October is generally a decent month at FAT, but if October was a bomb, I'd be concerned. That's why I'm predicting a cut. F9 doesn't wait around on schedule adjustments, they just cut and run. Guess we'll find out soon. Frankly, that they can fill even a 320 with such few connections is pretty amazing.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:54 am

flyfresno wrote:
The 737 to SFO was part of an experiment UA tried where they sent mainline "terminators" from SFO to markets that were normally express only (sort of the same way DL has terminators from MSP to places like FAR and FSD). Off the top of my head, they had SFO to FAT, SMF, and SBA. None of those routes lasted though.

We'll see what happens with MSP. I would imagine that, the more companies like yours there are that ask for it, the more likely it will be to finally happen.

The airport's service incentive program was probably part of the reason also. Replacing regional jets with aircraft over 107 seats qualified for landing fee waivers. I don't know if any incentive was paid to UA for the mainline flight.

Local companies should not only ask for service such as MSP, they should remind the airlines of Fresno's incentive program to help try a new route.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:08 am

whatusaid wrote:
in Sept 2018, F9 recorded an 84% LF with mostly 321s. This year came in at 69% and that's with more far more 320's. August wasn't strong either. October is generally a decent month at FAT, but if October was a bomb, I'd be concerned. That's why I'm predicting a cut. F9 doesn't wait around on schedule adjustments, they just cut and run. Guess we'll find out soon. Frankly, that they can fill even a 320 with such few connections is pretty amazing.


Frontier and Volaris sell connections thru FAT as part of their agreement.

I wonder if there are very many DEN-FAT-MLM passengers.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
QXatFAT
Posts: 2336
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:51 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:00 am

FATFlyer wrote:
Local companies should not only ask for service such as MSP, they should remind the airlines of Fresno's incentive program to help try a new route.


Our EVP that oversees the department that has travel being a part of it, has already negotiated their kick backs from DL and AA in 2020. I am sure it does not hurt to drop them a line in e-mail or schedule a meeting with them (our EVP) when I am back in MSP in February.

What are the other top 2 of 3 O&D without non-stop from FAT today?
Don't Tread On Me!
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:52 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
in Sept 2018, F9 recorded an 84% LF with mostly 321s. This year came in at 69% and that's with more far more 320's. August wasn't strong either. October is generally a decent month at FAT, but if October was a bomb, I'd be concerned. That's why I'm predicting a cut. F9 doesn't wait around on schedule adjustments, they just cut and run. Guess we'll find out soon. Frankly, that they can fill even a 320 with such few connections is pretty amazing.


Frontier and Volaris sell connections thru FAT as part of their agreement.

I wonder if there are very many DEN-FAT-MLM passengers.


MLM does work on Mondays, and GDL works a lot of the time, although only going southbound (pretty much all the Mexico connections only work going southbound through FAT, although I'm sure some people are probably willing to spend a night in a hotel or the airport based on some of the fares I am seeing). It would be interesting to see how many pax on F9's DEN-FAT are connecting to Mexico, on average.

Also, not sure if it was ever mentioned in the last thread, but here is a complete summary of the Mexico service this summer (which I suppose could still change):
FAT-BJX: 3X per week, operating WeSaSu.
FAT-GDL: Y4 is 8X per week in the early summer, operating daily plus Th; then 11X per week in peak summer, operating daily plus MoThFrSu (@3:40AM!). AM 5X per week in peak summer (ex TuSu).
FAT-MLM: 3X per week, operating MoTuFr.
It will be interesting to see how things go on nights (mornings?) with 4 fights to Mexico...the airport will be busy all night, as the last Mexico departure will be at 3:40, and the first domestic will be at 5:30, so it's unlikely security will even close.

If you are interested in going to BJX in particular (Guanajuato is a BEAUTIFUL town), there are fares as low as $65 OW on Y4 in the spring and summer.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5241
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:46 pm

I had hoped that when AS added a 2nd daily SAN-OGG flight to begin in May, they might've worked FAT into the mix, providing direct FAT-Maui service as a test of the market. So far, it hasn't happened but if the second SAN-OGG flight sticks around after the peak summer season, maybe FAT will be worked into the schedule. (Of course if AS pulls the 2nd flight from SAN, maybe they'll use that etops 738 for a NONSTOP FAT-Hawaii!...)

That being said, I would love to see mainline service appear in the SAN-FAT market even if it's not associated with HI. Now that AS is planning 4 daily r/t in the market (!), maybe a 'Bus or a Boeing isn't that far off!

I'm always happy to see air service at FAT growing and improving! Good luck to you all for a great 2020!

bb
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:36 pm

I think there is still a lot of Hawaii route adjustments to happen in 2020/2021 for all airlines. The second AS SAN-OGG starting in May will faceoff against WN adding SAN-OGG/HNL in April. Lots of questions about what might happen - will it stimulate the SAN-Hawaii market; will one airline blink; etc.

If AS cannot fill the 2nd SAN-OGG then either FAT-SAN-OGG or a FAT-Hawaii nonstop (even only a few days a week) are both possible moves for AS.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:58 pm

QXatFAT wrote:
Our EVP that oversees the department that has travel being a part of it, has already negotiated their kick backs from DL and AA in 2020. I am sure it does not hurt to drop them a line in e-mail or schedule a meeting with them (our EVP) when I am back in MSP in February.

What are the other top 2 of 3 O&D without non-stop from FAT today?


Different studies I've seen have the top unserved markets in different order.

But most seem to put the top 5 unserved domestic O&D markets (in no particular order) as:
Minneapolis
New York
Atlanta
Orlando
Hawaii

FAT's service incentive program when approved a couple of years ago considered MSP, ATL; IAH/HOU; SNA; and LGB as "New Priority Destinations". That means service started to one of those destinations receives a higher incentive than given for other new destinations. The airport does have discretion to change the priority airports so I don't know if the priorities have changed.
http://flyfresno.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/06-30-2016_AirSvcIncentive_Dom-Intl_final-abf.pdf
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:09 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
QXatFAT wrote:
Our EVP that oversees the department that has travel being a part of it, has already negotiated their kick backs from DL and AA in 2020. I am sure it does not hurt to drop them a line in e-mail or schedule a meeting with them (our EVP) when I am back in MSP in February.

What are the other top 2 of 3 O&D without non-stop from FAT today?


Different studies I've seen have the top unserved markets in different order.

But most seem to put the top 5 unserved domestic O&D markets (in no particular order) as:
Minneapolis
New York
Atlanta
Orlando
Hawaii

FAT's service incentive program when approved a couple of years ago considered MSP, ATL; IAH/HOU; SNA; and LGB as "New Priority Destinations". That means service started to one of those destinations receives a higher incentive than given for other new destinations. The airport does have discretion to change the priority airports so I don't know if the priorities have changed.
http://flyfresno.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/06-30-2016_AirSvcIncentive_Dom-Intl_final-abf.pdf


I thought DC was high too...higher than NYC or Atlanta combining all three airports, but I could be wrong.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:11 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
I think there is still a lot of Hawaii route adjustments to happen in 2020/2021 for all airlines. The second AS SAN-OGG starting in May will faceoff against WN adding SAN-OGG/HNL in April. Lots of questions about what might happen - will it stimulate the SAN-Hawaii market; will one airline blink; etc.

If AS cannot fill the 2nd SAN-OGG then either FAT-SAN-OGG or a FAT-Hawaii nonstop (even only a few days a week) are both possible moves for AS.


It would certainly be interesting to see OGG before HNL; I would imagine HNL has higher O&D, but I really don’t know.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:51 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I thought DC was high too...higher than NYC or Atlanta combining all three airports, but I could be wrong.

I have seen several different studies. I think DC has higher in the master plan analysis but not in others.

It is just like I saw a study from a 5 years ago that put FAT-DEL as a larger international market than FAT-GDL or FAT-SJD. That one also had FAT-MNL as a larger international market than FAT-YVR or FAT-CUN.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:58 pm

flyfresno wrote:
It would certainly be interesting to see OGG before HNL; I would imagine HNL has higher O&D, but I really don’t know.


There is very little difference between the 2 Hawaii markets from Fresno.

Using tourism data from Hawaii which captures the information on the cards arriving passengers complete (meaning it captures the hometown rather than airport used), Oahu only receives about 750 or 800 more annual visitors from the Fresno MSA than Maui.

From the Modesto and Sacramento areas, Maui is the larger destination.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5241
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:30 pm

flyfresno wrote:
It would certainly be interesting to see OGG before HNL; I would imagine HNL has higher O&D, but I really don’t know.

The only reason I brought up the OGG-SAN-FAT opportunity is because there will be 2 SAN-Maui flights this summer whereas SAN-HNL will remain a single r/t.

AS has offered double-daily OGG flights from SAN in the past but has never done so with HNL; they may want/need most all of the seats to HNL to be available for SAN while with 2 daily 738s between SAN and Maui, there could be some extra capacity to also serve Fresno travelers.

That being said, starting this summer both routes will have 3 cx flying them from SAN so we will see a good amount of capacity.

bb
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:10 pm

SANFan wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
It would certainly be interesting to see OGG before HNL; I would imagine HNL has higher O&D, but I really don’t know.

The only reason I brought up the OGG-SAN-FAT opportunity is because there will be 2 SAN-Maui flights this summer whereas SAN-HNL will remain a single r/t.

AS has offered double-daily OGG flights from SAN in the past but has never done so with HNL; they may want/need most all of the seats to HNL to be available for SAN while with 2 daily 738s between SAN and Maui, there could be some extra capacity to also serve Fresno travelers.

That being said, starting this summer both routes will have 3 cx flying them from SAN so we will see a good amount of capacity.

bb


I wonder if AS could alternate FAT with SAN to HNL. Add an extra flight 4X per week from SAN, use the other three for FAT. Could easily be a “W” 4-day trip for the crew (SAN-HNL-FAT-HNL-SAN). I think demand will follow the flights. Some people have timeshares in OGG (and other islands), but I’m guessing some would swap to Oahu if that was the non-stop.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:48 am

flyfresno wrote:
SANFan wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
It would certainly be interesting to see OGG before HNL; I would imagine HNL has higher O&D, but I really don’t know.

The only reason I brought up the OGG-SAN-FAT opportunity is because there will be 2 SAN-Maui flights this summer whereas SAN-HNL will remain a single r/t.

AS has offered double-daily OGG flights from SAN in the past but has never done so with HNL; they may want/need most all of the seats to HNL to be available for SAN while with 2 daily 738s between SAN and Maui, there could be some extra capacity to also serve Fresno travelers.

That being said, starting this summer both routes will have 3 cx flying them from SAN so we will see a good amount of capacity.

bb


I wonder if AS could alternate FAT with SAN to HNL. Add an extra flight 4X per week from SAN, use the other three for FAT. Could easily be a “W” 4-day trip for the crew (SAN-HNL-FAT-HNL-SAN). I think demand will follow the flights. Some people have timeshares in OGG (and other islands), but I’m guessing some would swap to Oahu if that was the non-stop.


Having flown AS today from SJC to HNL to spend some time at our timeshare, I wish AS would simply give FAT a decent connection through SAN. That I had to drive to SJC and will fly home through SEA is a total pain. I wonder if FAT Mgt have pitched Hawaii to AS? Can’t fault AS for the fare or on-board service, but the schedule right now isn’t going to “wow” those who are driving away, and I believe both HNL and OGG represent markets where Fresno would rather drive away than fly Fresno.
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:53 pm

Well you chose to return via SEA and chose to drive to SJC. You could have just flown UA from FAT thru LA or SF and avoid both. So why whine?
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:36 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
Well you chose to return via SEA and chose to drive to SJC. You could have just flown UA from FAT thru LA or SF and avoid both. So why whine?


Obviously fares vary widely, but FAT-HNL looks to be around $50, and sometimes more than $100 cheaper each way on AS than UA for a variety of future dates. Also, AS has superior service to UA. Traveling through SFO from FAT is just asking for a 2-3 hour flow delay and a missed connection on many days.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:59 pm

flyfresno wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Well you chose to return via SEA and chose to drive to SJC. You could have just flown UA from FAT thru LA or SF and avoid both. So why whine?


Obviously fares vary widely, but FAT-HNL looks to be around $50, and sometimes more than $100 cheaper each way on AS than UA for a variety of future dates. Also, AS has superior service to UA. Traveling through SFO from FAT is just asking for a 2-3 hour flow delay and a missed connection on many days.


AS was 15k miles each way, complimentary upgrade to 1st going for both of us. AS treats their MVP Gold members very well. AS is doing well in Fresno, but could be doing better. UA’s CRJ forever mentality doesn’t work.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:11 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Having flown AS today from SJC to HNL to spend some time at our timeshare, I wish AS would simply give FAT a decent connection through SAN. That I had to drive to SJC and will fly home through SEA is a total pain. I wonder if FAT Mgt have pitched Hawaii to AS? Can’t fault AS for the fare or on-board service, but the schedule right now isn’t going to “wow” those who are driving away, and I believe both HNL and OGG represent markets where Fresno would rather drive away than fly Fresno.

Posting from Hawaii? I'm jeaous. LOL

My wife and I almost always fly out of FAT but it is only 1 or 2 people flying. I don't know your trip this time, but I know many families who feel the drive for a Hawaii flight has enough dollar savings to make it worth it.

flyfresno wrote:
Traveling through SFO from FAT is just asking for a 2-3 hour flow delay and a missed connection on many days.

For those who do not know, Fresno is one of the closest airports to either and often feels the brunt of problems and flow delays.

For example looking at FAT-SFO flights in November, UA5723 was on-time only 53% and over 30 minutes late 36% of flights; UA5876 was over 30 minutes late on 31% of flights.

Not just FAT-SFO but also FAT-LAX will get flow delays.

A few years ago I booked UA thru LAX but included a multi-hour connection just in case instead of a shorter connection. Flow delays still almost caused me to miss the connection, as I stepped off the FAT-LAX UA was announcing my name on the concourse-wide PA saying they were getting ready to close the departing flight door at a gate the opposite end of the concourse. Good thing I go to the gym.
Last edited by FATFlyer on Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:13 pm

whatusaid wrote:
UA’s CRJ forever mentality doesn’t work.


I wonder to what extent SkyWest’s MX (and crew) base has to do with the CR2s. FAT had CR2 terminators from LAX and to LAX/SFO for years when almost every other flight to almost ever other small/medium airport from those hubs were on EM2s, presumably because of MX. The upguage was nice then, but could FAT now be seeing the downside of that?
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:26 pm

I'm wondering how much of the CRJ maintenance is shifting to SBP. I don't expect all of it moving but I do suspect some is moving away from FAT. But that would open space in Fresno for E175 maintenance.

6 months ago Skywest announced it was opening a new maintenance base in San Luis Obispo. OO leased a hangar from ACI Jet with space for 5 regional jets at a time. OO operates nearly as many CR2/CR7 UA flights from SBP as it does from FAT.

Besides OO employees being hired there, ACI Jet just became a Bombardier Authorized Service Facility for Challenger and Global jets.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:53 am

FATFlyer wrote:
I'm wondering how much of the CRJ maintenance is shifting to SBP. I don't expect all of it moving but I do suspect some is moving away from FAT. But that would open space in Fresno for E175 maintenance.

6 months ago Skywest announced it was opening a new maintenance base in San Luis Obispo. OO leased a hangar from ACI Jet with space for 5 regional jets at a time. OO operates nearly as many CR2/CR7 UA flights from SBP as it does from FAT.

Besides OO employees being hired there, ACI Jet just became a Bombardier Authorized Service Facility for Challenger and Global jets.


Do you know if that’s the old American Eagle mx facility?
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:10 am

flyfresno wrote:
[Do you know if that’s the old American Eagle mx facility?


Possibly. I'm not sure what the arrangement is and have not been at SBP in the last 6 months to check.

ACI Jet has been using the old Wings West hangar. But ACI was also building a new hangar at SBP. My guess is ACI moved into the new building and leased the old Wings West complex to OO. But I guess it is also possible that ACI stayed put and leased the new building to OO.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
QXatFAT
Posts: 2336
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:51 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:42 pm

Okay, here is a crazy thought...

What would you think the viability would be for FAT to get jetBlue into the airport? Service on A320's between FAT-LGB daily and 3x's week FAT-JFK? Thinking of the connections that could be had a long the east coast and Caribbean flying?

Okay...I will lay off the coffee the rest of the day.
Don't Tread On Me!
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:03 am

QXatFAT wrote:
Okay, here is a crazy thought...

What would you think the viability would be for FAT to get jetBlue into the airport? Service on A320's between FAT-LGB daily and 3x's week FAT-JFK? Thinking of the connections that could be had a long the east coast and Caribbean flying?

Okay...I will lay off the coffee the rest of the day.


They have tried a few smaller airports, some with success, some without (ABQ, TUS, RNO), and they DO make a big deal of serving “Ten California Airports” (seasonally). That said, I don’t think LGB is a huge market from FAT, and even with connections, JFK seems unlikely out of peak summer. If they were to make anything work, it would probably be JFK-LAS-FAT-LAS-JFK, but they have no reason to gamble on that.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:33 am

FAT started a 3 month remodel of the gate 5/7 hold room. It will be given a similar look to gate 6/8.

UA will temporarily relocate its CRJ flights to the old gate 1/3 area. It will be cramped for a few weeks.

Picture in the announcement at the link is of the current gate 6/8 hold room.
http://www.facebook.com/FresnoYosemiteInternational/photos/a.1403349433234044/2551845121717797/
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:56 am

FATFlyer wrote:
FAT started a 3 month remodel of the gate 5/7 hold room. It will be given a similar look to gate 6/8.

UA will temporarily relocate its CRJ flights to the old gate 1/3 area. It will be cramped for a few weeks.

Picture in the announcement at the link is of the current gate 6/8 hold room.
http://www.facebook.com/FresnoYosemiteInternational/photos/a.1403349433234044/2551845121717797/


A larger hold room investment Instead of badly needed jet bridges upstairs? Appears as if we are taking steps to ensure that those UA CRJ’s don’t go anywhere soon. FAT manages by looking in the rear view mirror and not to the future.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:31 pm

whatusaid wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
FAT started a 3 month remodel of the gate 5/7 hold room. It will be given a similar look to gate 6/8.

UA will temporarily relocate its CRJ flights to the old gate 1/3 area. It will be cramped for a few weeks.

Picture in the announcement at the link is of the current gate 6/8 hold room.
http://www.facebook.com/FresnoYosemiteInternational/photos/a.1403349433234044/2551845121717797/


A larger hold room investment Instead of badly needed jet bridges upstairs? Appears as if we are taking steps to ensure that those UA CRJ’s don’t go anywhere soon. FAT manages by looking in the rear view mirror and not to the future.


Couldn't have put it better myself...
 
User avatar
KLMatSJC
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2010 1:16 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:34 am

FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Do you know if that’s the old American Eagle mx facility?


Possibly. I'm not sure what the arrangement is and have not been at SBP in the last 6 months to check.

ACI Jet has been using the old Wings West hangar. But ACI was also building a new hangar at SBP. My guess is ACI moved into the new building and leased the old Wings West complex to OO.

This is exactly what's happened.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B77E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

Long Live the Tulip, Cactus, and Redwood
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:44 am

Another round of DOT enplanement numbers.

October domestic enplanements:
2019 - 75,368...........2018 - 65,886
YoY increase for Oct of about 14.4%

Jan - Oct domestic enplanements:
2019 - 686,589.........2018 - 613,788
YoY increase for Jan - Oct of about 11.9%

July international enplanements
2019 - 13,726..........2018 - 10,985
YoY increase for July of about 24.9%

Jan - July international enplanements
2019 - 78,048.........2018 - 65,352
YoY increase for Jan - July of about 19.4%

Thru July 2019, the total number of international passengers is only about 400 passengers fewer than CVG. FAT is showing faster growth and should have surpassed CVG in 2019 total international enplanements in August.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:21 am

FATFlyer wrote:
Another round of DOT enplanement numbers.

October domestic enplanements:
2019 - 75,368...........2018 - 65,886
YoY increase for Oct of about 14.4%

Jan - Oct domestic enplanements:
2019 - 686,589.........2018 - 613,788
YoY increase for Jan - Oct of about 11.9%

July international enplanements
2019 - 13,726..........2018 - 10,985
YoY increase for July of about 24.9%

Jan - July international enplanements
2019 - 78,048.........2018 - 65,352
YoY increase for Jan - July of about 19.4%

Thru July 2019, the total number of international passengers is only about 400 passengers fewer than CVG. FAT is showing faster growth and should have surpassed CVG in 2019 total international enplanements in August.


DOT October numbers show UA's 320 to DEN in October recorded an 89.8% LF. I wonder how mainline would do in summer? Guess we won't know with five RJ's shuttling back and forth. FL's DEN numbers on the smaller 320s came in at 86%, with the 321 at 65%. F9 remains on the soft side?

Any predictions on the 2019 traffic, both domestic and international? Reviewing Mexico SCT November enplanements of 12,177, BJX averaged 133 pax per flight, GDL 171, and MLM 156. SCT is reporting 115,087 departing pax through November. I'd expect huge numbers for December on the international side.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:07 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Any predictions on the 2019 traffic, both domestic and international? Reviewing Mexico SCT November enplanements of 12,177, BJX averaged 133 pax per flight, GDL 171, and MLM 156. SCT is reporting 115,087 departing pax through November. I'd expect huge numbers for December on the international side.


2019 projection?

Using DOT numbers and assuming 0% YoY growth for the remaining months of 2019 (in other words using the actual DOT numbers for domestic in Nov/Dec 2018 and for international Aug to Dec 2018) FAT would project at 936,421 enplanements, about 1,870,000 total passengers.

But 0% growth for the remaining months of course did not happen, those SCT numbers alone are much higher than 2018.

Playing with a few growth scenarios, I'll guess a total O&D in the range of 1.92 million to 2.02 million.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:34 pm

This is the DOT international enplanement rankings as of July 2019.

Fresno outgrew CVG and is now less than 400 international boardings behind CVG. FAT likely passed CVG in the rankings in August given the difference in international growth rates.

Pretty amazing considering FAT's international traffic is nearly all VFR. Imagine if FAT had 1 or 2 international resort/vacation destinations. For example, in 2015 an airport study estimated that the Fresno catchment area produced 28,000 SJD roundtrips each year. A 1X or 2X per week FAT-SJD anyone?

Jan to July 2019 international enplanement rankings:
40) Fort Myers 127,065
41) St. Louis 105,607
42) Sacramento 97,639
43) Nashville 91,327
44) Cincinnati 78,444
45) Fresno 78,049
46) Santa Ana 67,399
47) Newburgh/Poughkeepsie 65,922
48) Kona 65,428
49) Cleveland 58,736
50) Pittsburgh 51,718
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1199
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:36 pm

whatusaid wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
FAT started a 3 month remodel of the gate 5/7 hold room. It will be given a similar look to gate 6/8.

UA will temporarily relocate its CRJ flights to the old gate 1/3 area. It will be cramped for a few weeks.

Picture in the announcement at the link is of the current gate 6/8 hold room.
http://www.facebook.com/FresnoYosemiteInternational/photos/a.1403349433234044/2551845121717797/


A larger hold room investment Instead of badly needed jet bridges upstairs? Appears as if we are taking steps to ensure that those UA CRJ’s don’t go anywhere soon. FAT manages by looking in the rear view mirror and not to the future.


The airport has nothing to do with what types of equipment airlines fly and the hold rooms will need to be refurbished regardless.

With that being said, jetbridges can dock to CRJs, so I'm not sure why those wouldn't be installed.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:16 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
The airport has nothing to do with what types of equipment airlines fly and the hold rooms will need to be refurbished regardless.

With that being said, jetbridges can dock to CRJs, so I'm not sure why those wouldn't be installed.


I'll just say that knowing WhatUSaid in real life and given the things he has done involving the industry, he is quite aware of who decides equipment.

He was probably referencing his previous comment about how well mainline UA did in October (a slower month) but then is switching back to CRJs during summer peak season.

The new budget included $1,422,900 for this current gate remodel. Last year's project for the identical gate across the hall which was remodeled and also received a new jetway cost about $2.2 million.

This gate not receiving the full treatment by adding a jetway seems shortsighted given the impacts of ramp and concourse expansion construction starting next year.

The airport is already busy freeing up boarding jetways at night due to towing international mainline aircraft from the FIS deplaning positions and I have occasionally seen aircraft using what are basically RON parking positions. Adding another jetway while doing this remodel just seems like it would be more useful.

If UAX wants to continue using CRJs then they should be assigned the smallest hold room, gate 1/3 not the gate being remodeled now. FAT is a CUTE airport so anywhere works for them.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyfresno
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:44 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
If UAX wants to continue using CRJs then they should be assigned the smallest hold room, gate 1/3 not the gate being remodeled now. FAT is a CUTE airport so anywhere works for them.


1. Considering that UA will be using CRJs to fly DCA-EWR (new multi-class CRJs, but still CRJs), I can't see FAT being a priority for larger equipment when not necessary for range. It's likely that scope plays a part here, and FAT might have seen more consistent larger equipment by now (CR7s and E75s) if not for scope restrictions limiting how many 70ish seaters that UAX can have.
2. Yes, please move all the CRJs to the smaller gates. In fact, just move them over to the cargo ramp and have a small tent for everyone to stand under to wait...that wouldn't be much worse that the current situation.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:06 pm

LOL After I have picked on DL for years about only operating CR2s into Fresno, I'm just being consistent now with UA. (and I had FF status with UA back in the EMB110 days).

With the exception of FAT-ORD on mainline, this summer UA shows an all CR2 schedule. 13 CR2 flights. Not even a CR7. Should be interesting to see if any passengers make Willie Brown type comments about small aircraft.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
whatusaid
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:40 pm

flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
If UAX wants to continue using CRJs then they should be assigned the smallest hold room, gate 1/3 not the gate being remodeled now. FAT is a CUTE airport so anywhere works for them.


1. Considering that UA will be using CRJs to fly DCA-EWR (new multi-class CRJs, but still CRJs), I can't see FAT being a priority for larger equipment when not necessary for range. It's likely that scope plays a part here, and FAT might have seen more consistent larger equipment by now (CR7s and E75s) if not for scope restrictions limiting how many 70ish seaters that UAX can have.
2. Yes, please move all the CRJs to the smaller gates. In fact, just move them over to the cargo ramp and have a small tent for everyone to stand under to wait...that wouldn't be much worse that the current situation.


Your tent comment is so spot on. Maybe in the next Master Plan revision.

FYI, we are getting one CRJ 700 RON for a month - in from DEN and out to LAX. Let’s dont get our hopes up, ok?
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4948
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:48 am

whatusaid wrote:
Your tent comment is so spot on. Maybe in the next Master Plan revision.


The current FIS is just a modular building and is slated to be removed after the concourse expansion is complete. Just move it to a new location and call it the regional terminal. Anything 50 seats or less operates from there.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos