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Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:08 pm
by flyfresno
ericm2031 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
According to this week's OAG report, no more planned cuts for FAT aside from already announced ORD on UA and a couple flights between PHX/LAX on AA, with DFW maintaining. Both AS/DL stand pat too.


Look at first week of April for cuts for UA. They only loaded in 1 week so far, so it is not reflecting on the report. 3 DEN/2 LAX/2 SFO looks to be the new schedule


Gotcha...I checked the second and third week of April, so that would explain why I didn't see it.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 am
by whatusaid
AS cuts posted for early April: Sea 3>2; Pdx 2>1; San 3>1. I’ve heard San loads have been single digits. They hung in for weeks at 8 flights a day.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:59 pm
by FATFlyer
whatusaid wrote:
AS cuts posted for early April: Sea 3>2; Pdx 2>1; San 3>1. I’ve heard San loads have been single digits. They hung in for weeks at 8 flights a day.

I'm seeing some day of week variations, are you?

For example, FAT-SEA is only 1X on Wed April 1.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:51 am
by whatusaid
Seems as if AS is date specific. AM looks to be down to 2X a week.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:17 pm
by whatusaid
Looks as if AA is down to 1X DFW, 1X PHX, 1XLAX. WIth the cuts in the system for next week, it would appear Y4 has the most seats out of FAT now. GDL, MLM, and BJX are all flying. Anyone know about the loads at Y4?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:14 pm
by ericm2031
Updated UA schedule with the additional 10% cut brings them down to 3x DEN, 2x LAX, 1x SFO

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:17 am
by FATFlyer
whatusaid wrote:
Looks as if AA is down to 1X DFW, 1X PHX, 1XLAX. WIth the cuts in the system for next week, it would appear Y4 has the most seats out of FAT now. GDL, MLM, and BJX are all flying. Anyone know about the loads at Y4?

As of a week ago (Friday March 20), the airport director was claiming Mexico flights were still at about 75% LF even though domestic was way, way down.

But I have heard nothing about the last 7 days for Mexico flights.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:24 am
by FATFlyer
Volaris has suspended all Fresno flights for the month of April. They currently show flights resuming on May 1 but we will see what actually happens.

It is actually part of suspending 14 US cities. Volaris flights remain from 7 US cities including SJC, OAK, and LAX.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/article241734596.html

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:43 am
by ericm2031
New UA schedule will be 1x SFO, 1x LAX, 2x DEN

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:45 pm
by WN732
Not sure if this will even happen, but UA looks to be bringing the E175 in from Denver on a few flights. A much-needed upgrade from the CR2. ( I was looking in June)

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:46 pm
by flyfresno
FATFlyer wrote:
Volaris has suspended all Fresno flights for the month of April. They currently show flights resuming on May 1 but we will see what actually happens.

It is actually part of suspending 14 US cities. Volaris flights remain from 7 US cities including SJC, OAK, and LAX.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/article241734596.html


Isn't FAT the 2nd or 3rd highest O&D destination to GDL in the US? I'm surprised that Y4 would pull everything if that's the case...

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:31 pm
by FATFlyer
flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Volaris has suspended all Fresno flights for the month of April. They currently show flights resuming on May 1 but we will see what actually happens.

It is actually part of suspending 14 US cities. Volaris flights remain from 7 US cities including SJC, OAK, and LAX.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/article241734596.html


Isn't FAT the 2nd or 3rd highest O&D destination to GDL in the US? I'm surprised that Y4 would pull everything if that's the case...


It was an interesting list to me. They kept both SJC and OAK which are close together, but cancelled flights from all 3 Texas stations.

I don't know how they selected cities since FAT is one of the larger US-GDL routes. But there did not seem to be thought given to trying to maintain some regional coverage in other parts of the US (even via a multihour drive).

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 2:48 am
by flyfresno
From the OAG thread:

FAT will get 2X per day to LAX on Alaska (OO E-175s) starting in September. This will bring AS to 11 per days on peak days, including one mainline, rivaling UA for the second spot by total seats per day from FAT.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 3:16 am
by whatusaid
flyfresno wrote:
From the OAG thread:

FAT will get 2X per day to LAX on Alaska (OO E-175s) starting in September. This will bring AS to 11 per days on peak days, including one mainline, rivaling UA for the second spot by total seats per day from FAT.


I thought AA has the most seats, if all of mainline comes back. Everyone notice that DFW goes 319 in June? I thought AA’s traffic was rising?

Back to AS and LAX, did not see this coming. What, nine a day by OO to LA this fall at the minimum if all come back? Should we hold our breath that UA might upgrade their 4X from CRJs?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 3:47 am
by flyfresno
whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
From the OAG thread:

FAT will get 2X per day to LAX on Alaska (OO E-175s) starting in September. This will bring AS to 11 per days on peak days, including one mainline, rivaling UA for the second spot by total seats per day from FAT.


I thought AA has the most seats, if all of mainline comes back. Everyone notice that DFW goes 319 in June? I thought AA’s traffic was rising?

Back to AS and LAX, did not see this coming. What, nine a day by OO to LA this fall at the minimum if all come back? Should we hold our breath that UA might upgrade their 4X from CRJs?



Yes, AA is definitely #1, which is why I said they are rivaling UA for the #2 spot...

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 4:02 am
by WN732
whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
From the OAG thread:

FAT will get 2X per day to LAX on Alaska (OO E-175s) starting in September. This will bring AS to 11 per days on peak days, including one mainline, rivaling UA for the second spot by total seats per day from FAT.


I thought AA has the most seats, if all of mainline comes back. Everyone notice that DFW goes 319 in June? I thought AA’s traffic was rising?

Back to AS and LAX, did not see this coming. What, nine a day by OO to LA this fall at the minimum if all come back? Should we hold our breath that UA might upgrade their 4X from CRJs?


To be fair, that's the smallest gauge mainline that AA has. It would probably be a 220 if they had them. I'll bet that eventually it'll go back to a 738 after things calm down with COVID. Is PHX still running mainline?

God I wish UA would throw an E175 at FAT. It would make them so much more competitive.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 1:38 pm
by flyfresno
WN732 wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
From the OAG thread:

FAT will get 2X per day to LAX on Alaska (OO E-175s) starting in September. This will bring AS to 11 per days on peak days, including one mainline, rivaling UA for the second spot by total seats per day from FAT.


I thought AA has the most seats, if all of mainline comes back. Everyone notice that DFW goes 319 in June? I thought AA’s traffic was rising?

Back to AS and LAX, did not see this coming. What, nine a day by OO to LA this fall at the minimum if all come back? Should we hold our breath that UA might upgrade their 4X from CRJs?


To be fair, that's the smallest gauge mainline that AA has. It would probably be a 220 if they had them. I'll bet that eventually it'll go back to a 738 after things calm down with COVID. Is PHX still running mainline?

God I wish UA would throw an E175 at FAT. It would make them so much more competitive.


AA is still showing 4X 737s to DFW in September. We will see if it holds? As for UA, FAT isn't the only place they are running CR2s on routes that competitors have multi class aircraft (including mainline) on. SMF-LAX comes to mind right away...

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:28 pm
by flyfresno
Looking in July, Mexico service is showing a rebound (although not quite the boost that's apparently occurring at SMF). Currently Y4 is showing 10 flights per week to GDL, 3 flights per week to MLM, and 3 flights per week to BJX. AM is showing daily, 7 flights per week to GDL. It really looks like the customs facilities can't come fast enough. Anybody know whether COVID is placing any delays on construction?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:59 pm
by ericm2031
flyfresno wrote:
WN732 wrote:
whatusaid wrote:

I thought AA has the most seats, if all of mainline comes back. Everyone notice that DFW goes 319 in June? I thought AA’s traffic was rising?

Back to AS and LAX, did not see this coming. What, nine a day by OO to LA this fall at the minimum if all come back? Should we hold our breath that UA might upgrade their 4X from CRJs?


To be fair, that's the smallest gauge mainline that AA has. It would probably be a 220 if they had them. I'll bet that eventually it'll go back to a 738 after things calm down with COVID. Is PHX still running mainline?

God I wish UA would throw an E175 at FAT. It would make them so much more competitive.


AA is still showing 4X 737s to DFW in September. We will see if it holds? As for UA, FAT isn't the only place they are running CR2s on routes that competitors have multi class aircraft (including mainline) on. SMF-LAX comes to mind right away...


AA hasn’t even published their July schedule, so September is still going to show a pre-COVID schedule

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:54 pm
by FATFlyer
AS adding the 2X FAT-LAX starting in September is a nice move.

WhatUSaid, I remember a conversation we had years ago about QX possibly starting flights to LAX to feed AS flights there. I guess it just took a while for AS to pull that trigger.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:09 pm
by SANFan
FATFlyer wrote:
AS adding the 2X FAT-LAX starting in September is a nice move.

WhatUSaid, I remember a conversation we had years ago about QX possibly starting flights to LAX to feed AS flights there. I guess it just took a while for AS to pull that trigger.

I can't help but wonder what effect this add by AS will have on the FAT-SAN service currently op'd by the carrier? We were scheduled to see the route increase to 4 daily flights this summer before everything collapsed. Certainly some of the FAT-SAN traffic was connecting so will that all be redirected to LA now, with service to SAN losing out? I can't see all flights to SAN being eliminated but I'm guessing the choice of departures to SAN will be decreasing by the end of this year...

bb

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:39 pm
by ibthebigd
Be nice if Southwest swooped in right now and added once daily LAS PHX and DEN.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:43 am
by flyfresno
SANFan wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
AS adding the 2X FAT-LAX starting in September is a nice move.

WhatUSaid, I remember a conversation we had years ago about QX possibly starting flights to LAX to feed AS flights there. I guess it just took a while for AS to pull that trigger.

I can't help but wonder what effect this add by AS will have on the FAT-SAN service currently op'd by the carrier? We were scheduled to see the route increase to 4 daily flights this summer before everything collapsed. Certainly some of the FAT-SAN traffic was connecting so will that all be redirected to LA now, with service to SAN losing out? I can't see all flights to SAN being eliminated but I'm guessing the choice of departures to SAN will be decreasing by the end of this year...

bb


There actually haven't been very many connections from SAN that have worked both ways. If I were to guess, I would have to say SAN is 90% O&D.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:38 pm
by whatusaid
In last night's schedule load, UA added back 1X LAX - 7am departure. Nothing else that I can find. Tonight's AA load might be more interesting, given the press reports of a far more agressive add throughout their network.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:52 pm
by flyfresno
ibthebigd wrote:
Be nice if Southwest swooped in right now and added once daily LAS PHX and DEN.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Maybe not *right now*, but I think LAS can support much more than once daily. Three reasons for that: 1) AY does really well by itself even though many Fresnans have swore them off, O&D numbers on that route were significantly higher back when three airlines flew it (if you extrapolate based on FAT's overall growth, there's enough for WN to do 2-3 per day in addition to AY), and LAS has a TON of connections.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:59 pm
by FATFlyer
SANFan wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
AS adding the 2X FAT-LAX starting in September is a nice move.

WhatUSaid, I remember a conversation we had years ago about QX possibly starting flights to LAX to feed AS flights there. I guess it just took a while for AS to pull that trigger.

I can't help but wonder what effect this add by AS will have on the FAT-SAN service currently op'd by the carrier? We were scheduled to see the route increase to 4 daily flights this summer before everything collapsed. Certainly some of the FAT-SAN traffic was connecting so will that all be redirected to LA now, with service to SAN losing out? I can't see all flights to SAN being eliminated but I'm guessing the choice of departures to SAN will be decreasing by the end of this year...

bb


I believe FAT-SAN is mainly O&D with some connections.

But it appears to me that FAT-LAX offers a new, different set of connecting cities, with less O&D like SAN. For example, there are many AS international routes southbound out of LAX that are not available at SAN.

I think the impact if any on FAT-SAN will be minimal. More likely it is an opportunity for AS to grow its market share out of FAT.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:16 am
by whatusaid
July adds from the various airlines websites tonight: AS goes 4X SEA; PDX comes back at 1X; AA is at 3X DFW (all 738’s); PHX goes 2X; UA adds LAX 1X. AS holds the #2 spot when it comes to seats. DL previously published 3X SLC. AS isn’t adding anything on SAN - intrastate must be weak? I’ve a flight this week to SAN and seatmap suggests three of us thus far. Skywest still has a big Delta presence parked at the hanger and on the cargo ramp. Anything else going on at FAT?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:44 pm
by flyfresno
whatusaid wrote:
July adds from the various airlines websites tonight: AS goes 4X SEA; PDX comes back at 1X; AA is at 3X DFW (all 738’s); PHX goes 2X; UA adds LAX 1X. AS holds the #2 spot when it comes to seats. DL previously published 3X SLC. AS isn’t adding anything on SAN - intrastate must be weak? I’ve a flight this week to SAN and seatmap suggests three of us thus far. Skywest still has a big Delta presence parked at the hanger and on the cargo ramp. Anything else going on at FAT?


Interesting that AS is dropping SAN-SMF completely, after once having mainline on the route. SBP also gets the axe. I'm guessing that will help free up airframes for the new routes announced last week, including FAT-LAX. SEA is all E175, but at 4X per day, is a similar number of seats to the 2X E175 and 1X 319 that was originally planned. All in all, appears AS is being fairly aggressive in their return, and FAT benefits.

Good to see DFW goes back to the 737. Still no redeyes out of FAT besides Mexico, but I'm guessing that's more about how the banks are set up at DFW. AA seems to be "banking" (pun intended) heavily on DFW over LAX and PHX right now...I saw somewhere that it's busier than both ORD and ATL this month. PHX gets the same 2 frequencies almost all west coast cities do, and LAX looks like mostly O&D for AA for now; it might be the last to come back to a full schedule.

How will UA respond? They have announced a lot of staff cuts, so it might be a while before they significantly pick service back up. Will we see an E175 to ORD, or will all three of the other hubs come back (on CR2s) to normal levels before ORD returns?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:17 pm
by FATFlyer
whatusaid wrote:
July adds from the various airlines websites tonight: AS goes 4X SEA; PDX comes back at 1X; AA is at 3X DFW (all 738’s); PHX goes 2X; UA adds LAX 1X. AS holds the #2 spot when it comes to seats. DL previously published 3X SLC. AS isn’t adding anything on SAN - intrastate must be weak? I’ve a flight this week to SAN and seatmap suggests three of us thus far. Skywest still has a big Delta presence parked at the hanger and on the cargo ramp. Anything else going on at FAT?


Anecdotally, I am hearing a little more talk than pre-virus from people about driving to SAN or LAS the next few months rather than flying. I don't know if the reason is financial or still fearful of being in an aircraft due to the virus. The shorter O&D routes may stay weak a little longer.

Vida en Valle ran a nice Volaris' flight return article on Friday. They got the dates wrong in the opening paragraph but other than that a nice plug.
https://www.vidaenelvalle.com/news/state/california/fresno/article243219941.html

City budget hearings are starting, the Mayor proposed a continuing budget resolution. The airport is on the agenda for Monday June 15. I'll be interested to read their presentation when it is publicly posted.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:28 pm
by ericm2031
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
July adds from the various airlines websites tonight: AS goes 4X SEA; PDX comes back at 1X; AA is at 3X DFW (all 738’s); PHX goes 2X; UA adds LAX 1X. AS holds the #2 spot when it comes to seats. DL previously published 3X SLC. AS isn’t adding anything on SAN - intrastate must be weak? I’ve a flight this week to SAN and seatmap suggests three of us thus far. Skywest still has a big Delta presence parked at the hanger and on the cargo ramp. Anything else going on at FAT?


Interesting that AS is dropping SAN-SMF completely, after once having mainline on the route. SBP also gets the axe. I'm guessing that will help free up airframes for the new routes announced last week, including FAT-LAX. SEA is all E175, but at 4X per day, is a similar number of seats to the 2X E175 and 1X 319 that was originally planned. All in all, appears AS is being fairly aggressive in their return, and FAT benefits.

Good to see DFW goes back to the 737. Still no redeyes out of FAT besides Mexico, but I'm guessing that's more about how the banks are set up at DFW. AA seems to be "banking" (pun intended) heavily on DFW over LAX and PHX right now...I saw somewhere that it's busier than both ORD and ATL this month. PHX gets the same 2 frequencies almost all west coast cities do, and LAX looks like mostly O&D for AA for now; it might be the last to come back to a full schedule.

How will UA respond? They have announced a lot of staff cuts, so it might be a while before they significantly pick service back up. Will we see an E175 to ORD, or will all three of the other hubs come back (on CR2s) to normal levels before ORD returns?


SBP-SAN is just suspended, you can find it on the schedule farther out. SMF was completely cut though

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:30 pm
by FATFlyer

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:57 am
by whatusaid
The BEE didn't do their research, given the failure to mention the resumption of PDX next month or that SEA is going to 4X. I do wonder about the future of SAN, if it will remain 4X come fall. I flew to SAN this morning and we had maybe 30 or so on the flight, which is not bad given the restrictions on pax loads. But, maybe 3 SAN RT's would right-size the market? Still waiting on SNA.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:35 pm
by smflyer
FATFlyer wrote:


Smart move for AS considering LAX has multiple connection opportunities on both AS and AA flights. They are competing against UA which will most likely not recover its LAX operations to pre-COVID levels. AS should have the upper hand on this route given the equipment and network out of LAX.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:55 pm
by flyfresno
I'm not sure if this was already in the schedules or is new, but AA is showing two flights to PHX on A319s starting in April (the terminator plus an afternoon flight). The OAG guide also shows an increase to five per day to DFW, but I am not finding that 5th flight anywhere online. Has anyone found any info about it?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:52 pm
by FATFlyer
The 5th DFW shows in April 2021. But I think it may be an error, otherwise it is a strange schedule.

Looking at April there are departures from FAT at 6:00am, 11:40am, 11:41am, 2:30pm and 11:59pm. The two midday leaving 1 minute apart are probably supposed to be only 1 flight.

Likewise, the DFW departures are at 9:05am, 9:24am, 12:30pm, 5:10pm and 10:35pm. The first two also seem too closely scheduled and are probably an error.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:41 am
by whatusaid
AA did the same on PHX a few months back with six flights, including two that were minutes apart. I never have faith in their schedules this far out. I did note they’ve pulled the 319’s off PHX in Sept, but they never started to begin with due to COVID.

AS pulled the 4th to SEA before it started next month. It’s tough to book SEA at the last minute these days unless you’re paying for 1st. They need more capacity if they’re only selling half the 175.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:42 am
by flyfresno
Rumors floating around the forums that AA won't be returning to FAT-LAX after all of this.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:53 am
by whatusaid
flyfresno wrote:
Rumors floating around the forums that AA won't be returning to FAT-LAX after all of this.


Altogether possible. AS adding LAX makes sense if AA is gone. Still, anything that far out is a guess.

Speaking of guessing -

One route to look at is FAT-ORD, pre-Covid - numbers were not good in Jan and Feb. Might be that’s more of a seasonal route?

I’d expect we’ve a long climb to what we once knew.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:13 pm
by flyfresno
whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Rumors floating around the forums that AA won't be returning to FAT-LAX after all of this.


Altogether possible. AS adding LAX makes sense if AA is gone. Still, anything that far out is a guess.

Speaking of guessing -

One route to look at is FAT-ORD, pre-Covid - numbers were not good in Jan and Feb. Might be that’s more of a seasonal route?

I’d expect we’ve a long climb to what we once knew.


I would guess that ORD will be seasonal after we see some positive stability, and might even go back to the E175 Apr-Sep and again Thanksgiving to New Years. But I also think we will see a return to nearly year-round service eventually (maybe in 3-4 years?).

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:58 pm
by whatusaid
AS is adding back a second to SAN with the September schedule load. From what I see, we're now 2X LAX, 2X SAN, 1X PDX, 3X SEA and all 175's. Mainline pulled from the September schedule, but then, the start never happened this summer as planned.

BFL is reporting a 3rd to PHX from AA - I didn't see that in their update this weekend. Might be that a major AA update is due next week? I'd expect that's overall upgrade to PHX?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:35 pm
by whatusaid
The UA schedule load last night shows LAX is gone in September. Is AA due to load tonight?

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:11 pm
by flyfresno
whatusaid wrote:
The UA schedule load last night shows LAX is gone in September. Is AA due to load tonight?


Surprising and not surprising. I thought the OAG thread had it down to one single flight a few days per week. I feel like UA has been trying to come back in LAX, but there's not really many places you can get to from LAX on either UA or Star in general that you can't from SFO/DEN/ORD. Still, crazy to think that FAT might be down to just two flights per day to LAX, and on Alaska. LAX has been one of the airport's busiest routes during the past few years. I've noticed that AS has LAX priced at around $50 or less in the near term, but those might just be COVID prices, as the fares jump next year. IMO, there would definitely be people who would fly just to LAX if prices were similar to SMF-LAX fares, but I'm not sure whether airlines have any interest in that.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:17 pm
by Tan Flyr
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
The UA schedule load last night shows LAX is gone in September. Is AA due to load tonight?


Surprising and not surprising. I thought the OAG thread had it down to one single flight a few days per week. I feel like UA has been trying to come back in LAX, but there's not really many places you can get to from LAX on either UA or Star in general that you can't from SFO/DEN/ORD. Still, crazy to think that FAT might be down to just two flights per day to LAX, and on Alaska. LAX has been one of the airport's busiest routes during the past few years. I've noticed that AS has LAX priced at around $50 or less in the near term, but those might just be COVID prices, as the fares jump next year. IMO, there would definitely be people who would fly just to LAX if prices were similar to SMF-LAX fares, but I'm not sure whether airlines have any interest in that.


A few nights ago my son, who lives in So Cal, and I were discussing this..he recalled reading somewhere where the AA flights are penciled in to come back at a later date.(late 20 or early 21??) Sort of post COVID, and maybe at 2-3 to compliment the Alaska service. There should be enough demand again in 6-9 months to support at least 4 flights a day between FAT and LAX in 9 months.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:23 am
by whatusaid
Tan Flyr wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
The UA schedule load last night shows LAX is gone in September. Is AA due to load tonight?


Surprising and not surprising. I thought the OAG thread had it down to one single flight a few days per week. I feel like UA has been trying to come back in LAX, but there's not really many places you can get to from LAX on either UA or Star in general that you can't from SFO/DEN/ORD. Still, crazy to think that FAT might be down to just two flights per day to LAX, and on Alaska. LAX has been one of the airport's busiest routes during the past few years. I've noticed that AS has LAX priced at around $50 or less in the near term, but those might just be COVID prices, as the fares jump next year. IMO, there would definitely be people who would fly just to LAX if prices were similar to SMF-LAX fares, but I'm not sure whether airlines have any interest in that.


A few nights ago my son, who lives in So Cal, and I were discussing this..he recalled reading somewhere where the AA flights are penciled in to come back at a later date.(late 20 or early 21??) Sort of post COVID, and maybe at 2-3 to compliment the Alaska service. There should be enough demand again in 6-9 months to support at least 4 flights a day between FAT and LAX in 9 months.


AS does so well at FAT, I could see AS running at least 4X to LAX once the dust settles on COVID. AA is obviously restructuring LAX and I doubt we'll see AA back on FAT-LAX. That AA is keeping 4X to DFW in September (always a slow month), incuding a well-timed 8:30 am add, is a good move and long overdue.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:35 pm
by flyfresno
whatusaid wrote:
Tan Flyr wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

Surprising and not surprising. I thought the OAG thread had it down to one single flight a few days per week. I feel like UA has been trying to come back in LAX, but there's not really many places you can get to from LAX on either UA or Star in general that you can't from SFO/DEN/ORD. Still, crazy to think that FAT might be down to just two flights per day to LAX, and on Alaska. LAX has been one of the airport's busiest routes during the past few years. I've noticed that AS has LAX priced at around $50 or less in the near term, but those might just be COVID prices, as the fares jump next year. IMO, there would definitely be people who would fly just to LAX if prices were similar to SMF-LAX fares, but I'm not sure whether airlines have any interest in that.


A few nights ago my son, who lives in So Cal, and I were discussing this..he recalled reading somewhere where the AA flights are penciled in to come back at a later date.(late 20 or early 21??) Sort of post COVID, and maybe at 2-3 to compliment the Alaska service. There should be enough demand again in 6-9 months to support at least 4 flights a day between FAT and LAX in 9 months.


AS does so well at FAT, I could see AS running at least 4X to LAX once the dust settles on COVID. AA is obviously restructuring LAX and I doubt we'll see AA back on FAT-LAX. That AA is keeping 4X to DFW in September (always a slow month), incuding a well-timed 8:30 am add, is a good move and long overdue.


It probably wouldn't happen until the industry starts heading back up, but could we see ORD or CLT after this? Other than upguaging PHX to all mainline (something they may or may not ever do because of OO's mx base in Fresno) - it's showing two mainline per day starting in May, they don't have a lot left to add from FAT to DFW/PHX. With so much traffic from their East Coast destinations being routed into CLT, and ORD being somewhat of an afterthought for them domestically, I wonder if FAT's first "East Coast" state will be North Carolina. I think many of us assumed it would be Georgia or New York, but with all the changes lately, NC is moving up on the odds list...

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:55 pm
by SANFan
AS had scheduled 4 daily FAT-SAN flights for this summer before COVID (source: my SAN turn sked created 1/13/20 to be in effect 8/17/20.) Prior to that, this summer's sked was pegged at triple-daily FAT-SAN. My feeling is that FAT-SAN was nearing the point of 4x daily, year-round r/t from AAG!

I continue to hope that the entry of AS into the FAT-LAX market does not have a noticeable effect on the SAN market, a route belonging exclusively to AAG that has been served continuously since June 2012 with more than 1 daily r/t. There are some connection opportunities over LA that don't exist via SAN but of course I don't think any of us knows exactly what percentage of AS's business is local traffic v. connections between FAT and SAN, or LAX for that matter.

That all being said, I'm happy to see AAG expanding at FAT! When all this COVID dust finally settles, who knows what AAG might be doing at Fresno?

bb

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:46 pm
by FATFlyer
Approval of the FAT parking garage contract is on the City Council agenda for Thursday Aug 20. The 4 story project will increase parking by over 600 spaces
https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F

The city staff report to the council indicates the airport is currently projecting a return to FY2018 passenger levels to occur by May 2021. Staff report direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?M=R&N=Master&GID=392&ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F&Extra=WithText&Title=Legislation+Details+(With+Text)

According to the project schedule in the contract on page 19, demolition and site work (assuming Council approval) will begin next week. Foundation work is scheduled to begin in October. Completion is scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021.

Pages 12 through 14 of the contract include architectural elevations of the final garage design.

Contract direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=8716808&GUID=AA91B274-B05F-484A-9D83-890376C6A3F4

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:11 pm
by flyfresno
FATFlyer wrote:
Approval of the FAT parking garage contract is on the City Council agenda for Thursday Aug 20. The 4 story project will increase parking by over 600 spaces
https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F

The city staff report to the council indicates the airport is currently projecting a return to FY2018 passenger levels to occur by May 2021. Staff report direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?M=R&N=Master&GID=392&ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F&Extra=WithText&Title=Legislation+Details+(With+Text)

According to the project schedule in the contract on page 19, demolition and site work (assuming Council approval) will begin next week. Foundation work is scheduled to begin in October. Completion is scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021.

Pages 12 through 14 of the contract include architectural elevations of the final garage design.

Contract direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=8716808&GUID=AA91B274-B05F-484A-9D83-890376C6A3F4


Thanks for the update. I feel like the design of this garage has changed so many times! I'm also surprised there isn't even a covered walkway to it, although maybe that's just not in the renderings. Even better would be an elevated walkway a la SMF terminal A.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:51 pm
by FATFlyer
flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Approval of the FAT parking garage contract is on the City Council agenda for Thursday Aug 20. The 4 story project will increase parking by over 600 spaces
https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F

The city staff report to the council indicates the airport is currently projecting a return to FY2018 passenger levels to occur by May 2021. Staff report direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?M=R&N=Master&GID=392&ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F&Extra=WithText&Title=Legislation+Details+(With+Text)

According to the project schedule in the contract on page 19, demolition and site work (assuming Council approval) will begin next week. Foundation work is scheduled to begin in October. Completion is scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021.

Pages 12 through 14 of the contract include architectural elevations of the final garage design.

Contract direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=8716808&GUID=AA91B274-B05F-484A-9D83-890376C6A3F4


Thanks for the update. I feel like the design of this garage has changed so many times! I'm also surprised there isn't even a covered walkway to it, although maybe that's just not in the renderings. Even better would be an elevated walkway a la SMF terminal A.


Either an elevated or underground walkway between the terminal and garage would have been a nice addition. Either would help separate traffic and pedestrians. Maybe as part of the Phase 2 garage in the future.

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2020

Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:35 pm
by whatusaid
FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Approval of the FAT parking garage contract is on the City Council agenda for Thursday Aug 20. The 4 story project will increase parking by over 600 spaces
https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F

The city staff report to the council indicates the airport is currently projecting a return to FY2018 passenger levels to occur by May 2021. Staff report direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/ViewReport.ashx?M=R&N=Master&GID=392&ID=4612466&GUID=C7B948EB-177F-4D8C-9028-06999074714F&Extra=WithText&Title=Legislation+Details+(With+Text)

According to the project schedule in the contract on page 19, demolition and site work (assuming Council approval) will begin next week. Foundation work is scheduled to begin in October. Completion is scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2021.

Pages 12 through 14 of the contract include architectural elevations of the final garage design.

Contract direct link:
https://fresno.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=8716808&GUID=AA91B274-B05F-484A-9D83-890376C6A3F4


Thanks for the update. I feel like the design of this garage has changed so many times! I'm also surprised there isn't even a covered walkway to it, although maybe that's just not in the renderings. Even better would be an elevated walkway a la SMF terminal A.


Either an elevated or underground walkway between the terminal and garage would have been a nice addition. Either would help separate traffic and pedestrians. Maybe as part of the Phase 2 garage in the future.


Demolition next week? Did that lone Fiat that has been sitting for weeks now get moved? LOL. While the cost per space is high, parking has been an issue for the last year around holidays. All things considered, now is the time to start construction when the traffic is rebounding. If we were not in the midst of COVID, this project would have been a major disruption. That the airport projects back to 2018 levels by next year doesn't appear to be overly optimistic. Might be that we see different traffic patterns with less feed to LAX and SFO and more heading East, but it's counts and not flights that will fill the new gargage.