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SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 pm

I know that contour has a bunch of dotted lines on the map. Anyone see them beginning any of the other routes?
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southwest1675
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:53 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
I know that contour has a bunch of dotted lines on the map. Anyone see them beginning any of the other routes?


IND airport per FB said it was just emphasizing potential growth considered Contour now considers IND a focus city.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:54 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
I know that contour has a bunch of dotted lines on the map. Anyone see them beginning any of the other routes?


IND airport per FB said it was just emphasizing potential growth considered Contour now considers IND a focus city.


The press release also said that they will base 2 aircraft here to start out with.
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SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:00 am

southwest1675 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
I know that contour has a bunch of dotted lines on the map. Anyone see them beginning any of the other routes?


IND airport per FB said it was just emphasizing potential growth considered Contour now considers IND a focus city.


One of the largest amazon distribution centers and largest warehouse in the world will be opening in Syracuse soon. Wonder if they will consider opening that as a route.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:06 am

I'm curious how Contour turns a profit given the fares they charge and the limited number of seats they can sell. Just because they've been around for a long time doesn't mean THIS model works. I mean Midwest Express was around for a long time until they became unsustainable.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:20 am

Indy wrote:
I'm curious how Contour turns a profit given the fares they charge and the limited number of seats they can sell. Just because they've been around for a long time doesn't mean THIS model works. I mean Midwest Express was around for a long time until they became unsustainable.


Contour has not been around a long time ... just since 2016

The fares they are listing are introductory right now, but I was thinking the same thing you are ... are they making money ?
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:37 am

stlgph wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
THIS is the major announcement all you IND fanboys have been hyping up?! LOL! When will you ever learn to take all the nonsense spouted by your officials with a grain of salt?


Oh sweetie.....it's amazing the mental batting average around here



Hahaha . . . Sorry, but I busted out laughing !
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:58 am

How much fuel does an E135 burn flying from IND to BNA including idle and taxi times? How much does that fuel cost? How much do we estimate they are paying for the pilots on this route? How much for flight attendant(s), ground crew, etc? That wouldn't even include any overhead, jet leases, etc.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
IndyHoosier
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:37 am

Indy wrote:
I'm curious how Contour turns a profit given the fares they charge and the limited number of seats they can sell. Just because they've been around for a long time doesn't mean THIS model works. I mean Midwest Express was around for a long time until they became unsustainable.


Looking at their wikipedia page, it appears many of their routes are subsidized EAS routes.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:50 am

Indy wrote:
How much fuel does an E135 burn flying from IND to BNA including idle and taxi times? How much does that fuel cost? How much do we estimate they are paying for the pilots on this route? How much for flight attendant(s), ground crew, etc? That wouldn't even include any overhead, jet leases, etc.


I've seen in their DOT filings that their Cost per block hour is usually around $3,500/hour.


*Also, not sure if their schedule is finalized. If I am reading this currently they will only be RON one aircraft in IND, even though IND is supposed to be a two aircraft base.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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knope2001
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:54 am

Indy is a perfect sweet spot for Contour. Here's why.

Contour largely flies regional jets for subsidized Alternate Essential Air Service routes under government contract. Alternate EAS is a special program designed to offer more flexibility for communities covered under the EAS Essential Air Service program, and Countour has the contract for a handful of cities around the country. They fly regional jets which normally seat 37 (or even 50) but only put 30 seats onboard to operate under within the limits of less-stringent / less expensive rules that a conventional airline must follow.

In the west they have the contract for Crescent City CA and Page AZ. The thing with flying regional jets to small subsidized markets like these is that generally they get at most 2-3 flights per day, leaving a decent amount of aircraft slack during the day. They've used slack in those regional jets serving CEC and PGA to add nonsubsidized flying and ultimately added another aircraft or two. The beauty of this is that a lot of the fixed cost are covered by the EAS subsidy so the added non-subsidized flying is at lower cost.

Among the handful of other AEAS subsidized routes Contour has contract for are Tupelo (TUP)-Nashville and Fort Leonard Wood (TBN) - St Louis. Contour is able to operate this new flights with only one additional aircraft. A substantial amount of the flying is coming from slack from the aircraft currently serving each of those city pairs.

1. TUP - BNA - IND - STL - TBN - STL - TBN

2. TBN - STL -IND - PIT - IND - STL - IND

3. IND - BNA - TUP - BNA - TUP - BNA - IND - BNA - TUP

Had Tupelo's and Fort Leonard Wood's subsidized flights been to Dallas (for example) this wouldn't work. It's a fortunate circumstance which aligns with two missing Indy markets and a community with revenue guarantee money.
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:01 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
How much fuel does an E135 burn flying from IND to BNA including idle and taxi times? How much does that fuel cost? How much do we estimate they are paying for the pilots on this route? How much for flight attendant(s), ground crew, etc? That wouldn't even include any overhead, jet leases, etc.


I've seen in their DOT filings that their Cost per block hour is usually around $3,500/hour.


30 SEATS x 99 FARES TO PIT .= 2970 at 100% load factor minus any fees they may owe the facilities and or any govt agencies,

Right out of the gate ... they will be losing money
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:44 am

crjflyboy wrote:
30 SEATS x 99 FARES TO PIT .= 2970 at 100% load factor minus any fees they may owe the facilities and or any govt agencies,

Right out of the gate ... they will be losing money


Uhh, I'm quite certain they won't be filling the entire plane with $99 fares. This is Contour filling a couple seats and getting some good publicity out of the launch. I'd be shocked if the $99 fare buckets had 5 or more seats available per flight. The close-in bookers (i.e., most of the passengers for flights like these) will be paying a good deal more than that. This is all basic revenue management stuff that every airline does.
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jetstream3399
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:27 am

Bravo Knope2001. Finally, someone who gets it.

And $99 is an introductory fare only available for the next two weeks. If you look at the fare filings, regular fares are between $119 and $279 each way. The fares are pretty similar to STL to MCI which is also a relatively short drive yet Southwest still carries a decent amount of local traffic.
 
kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:06 am

crjflyboy wrote:

30 SEATS x 99 FARES TO PIT .= 2970 at 100% load factor minus any fees they may owe the facilities and or any govt agencies,

Right out of the gate ... they will be losing money


That's not how seats are sold. On each given flight there may be as few as 2 seats available at the $99 fare. The last few seats on each flight are going to be sold for quite high amounts. For instance you can sometimes see the last few, last minute seats on similar distance flights going for 4 times as much. As an example the one way fare IND-DTW for today is $448 on Delta. The important number is the average fare, not the lowest promotional fare or the highest last minute fare.

As a side note, for today there are connecting flights available IND-PIT for over $1000 in economy.
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:35 pm

NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:03 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


Well for starters, AA doesn't have a hub in STL anymore, so no competition on the route....
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:14 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


1.5 million in free money
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:59 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


STL didn't work because NW was charging obscene fares for a CRJ-200 ride. Who wants to pay $600-800 round trip to STL?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:40 pm

stlgph wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


1.5 million in free money


That's not how a minimum revenue guarantee works....

Indy wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


STL didn't work because NW was charging obscene fares for a CRJ-200 ride. Who wants to pay $600-800 round trip to STL?


In my opinion, the main issue was that AA already operated the route 3x a day and had a hub in STL it could funnel traffic through, this creates a few problems:

1. The market size was waaaaay too small, (30-40 PDEW) for NW to compete with AA on.
2. AA could undercut NW heavily on prices since they had passengers flying IND-STL-XYZ, and not just local O&D.
3. NW was reliant on the local market since they had limited feed on the IND end, and as mentioned in #1, the local market had no chance of absorbing those extra seats.
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crjflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


1.5 million in free money


That's not how a minimum revenue guarantee works....

Indy wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


STL didn't work because NW was charging obscene fares for a CRJ-200 ride. Who wants to pay $600-800 round trip to STL?


In my opinion, the main issue was that AA already operated the route 3x a day and had a hub in STL it could funnel traffic through, this creates a few problems:

1. The market size was waaaaay too small, (30-40 PDEW) for NW to compete with AA on.
2. AA could undercut NW heavily on prices since they had passengers flying IND-STL-XYZ, and not just local O&D.
3. NW was reliant on the local market since they had limited feed on the IND end, and as mentioned in #1, the local market had no chance of absorbing those extra seats.


30 - 40 pax a day to STL ? This resembles ONEJET between BUF - ALB

How many O & D ?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:00 pm

Looks like IND finished between 9.5-9.6M pax, although no official number yet

Image
Image
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:07 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
stlgph wrote:

1.5 million in free money


That's not how a minimum revenue guarantee works....

Indy wrote:

STL didn't work because NW was charging obscene fares for a CRJ-200 ride. Who wants to pay $600-800 round trip to STL?


In my opinion, the main issue was that AA already operated the route 3x a day and had a hub in STL it could funnel traffic through, this creates a few problems:

1. The market size was waaaaay too small, (30-40 PDEW) for NW to compete with AA on.
2. AA could undercut NW heavily on prices since they had passengers flying IND-STL-XYZ, and not just local O&D.
3. NW was reliant on the local market since they had limited feed on the IND end, and as mentioned in #1, the local market had no chance of absorbing those extra seats.


30 - 40 pax a day to STL ? This resembles ONEJET between BUF - ALB

How many O & D ?


"Indy had nonstop service to Saint Louis when TWA had its hub there, and with Southwest after TWA was folded into American Airlines. Chaifetz (CEO of Contour) says Southwest was carrying 100 passengers a day when it eliminated the route, so Contour, with 60 available seats on two daily flights, should easily be able to fill its planes."

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... stinations
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adam47150
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:10 pm

Wow! Why the heck isn't DL on IND-PDX with at least 1xE75 daily?
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:16 pm

Yet, don't forget the fun part. In the end, Southwest axed their service.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:19 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

That's not how a minimum revenue guarantee works....



In my opinion, the main issue was that AA already operated the route 3x a day and had a hub in STL it could funnel traffic through, this creates a few problems:

1. The market size was waaaaay too small, (30-40 PDEW) for NW to compete with AA on.
2. AA could undercut NW heavily on prices since they had passengers flying IND-STL-XYZ, and not just local O&D.
3. NW was reliant on the local market since they had limited feed on the IND end, and as mentioned in #1, the local market had no chance of absorbing those extra seats.


30 - 40 pax a day to STL ? This resembles ONEJET between BUF - ALB

How many O & D ?


"Indy had nonstop service to Saint Louis when TWA had its hub there, and with Southwest after TWA was folded into American Airlines. Chaifetz (CEO of Contour) says Southwest was carrying 100 passengers a day when it eliminated the route, so Contour, with 60 available seats on two daily flights, should easily be able to fill its planes."

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... stinations


Again - what is the O& D traffic, you continue to compare the TWA/AA hub days and the SWA hub in STL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:35 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:

30 - 40 pax a day to STL ? This resembles ONEJET between BUF - ALB

How many O & D ?


"Indy had nonstop service to Saint Louis when TWA had its hub there, and with Southwest after TWA was folded into American Airlines. Chaifetz (CEO of Contour) says Southwest was carrying 100 passengers a day when it eliminated the route, so Contour, with 60 available seats on two daily flights, should easily be able to fill its planes."

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... stinations


Again - what is the O& D traffic, you continue to compare the TWA/AA hub days and the SWA hub in STL


I continue to compare to the TWA/AA hub days because that is what you asked about, did you forget?

crjflyboy wrote:
NW operated flights from IND to STL in 2005 on RJ'S

Load factors were abysmal and this was with a full blow frequent flyer program and recognized name.

http://www.itravelmag.com/travel-articles/608/

What has changed ?


There is no way to measure current market size since nearly the entire market is driving, only 8 PDEW flew in Q3 2019 at an avg fare of nearly $300+ each way.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:46 pm

adam47150 wrote:
Wow! Why the heck isn't DL on IND-PDX with at least 1xE75 daily?


Oops, should have pointed out that the infographic is both ways combined. Even with that considered, IND-PDX was still at 113 PDEW at an average of over $300 each way. So definitely a market that could sustain seasonal service from an airline.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:51 pm

SJC intrigues me because I wonder how many people would fly a nonstop that now fly to SFO or OAK when offered.

I still think Alaska should have moved the SFO flight to SJC.

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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:16 am

The bottom line with NW running IND-STL is that nobody was going pay what NW was charging for a route that could be driven. All of the other factors are irrelevant. You aren't going to put butts in the seats charging and obscene fare for a trip that could easily be made driving down I-70. People will be much more likely to pay a Contour fare for a significantly improved experience over NW's extraordinarily high fares for a very poor CRJ-200 experience. As long as Contour is profitable, the route should stick around.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:01 pm

https://www.contourairlines.com/en-us/e ... route-map/

Looks like there's going to be some connecting options according to this. Don't see them loaded in the schedules yet tho.
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jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:50 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
adam47150 wrote:
Wow! Why the heck isn't DL on IND-PDX with at least 1xE75 daily?


Oops, should have pointed out that the infographic is both ways combined. Even with that considered, IND-PDX was still at 113 PDEW at an average of over $300 each way. So definitely a market that could sustain seasonal service from an airline.


AS adding IND-PDX nonstop service is a possibility with AS already serving PDX nonstop from ORD and MSP in the Midwest. AS also currently operates some nonstop routes out of PDX that do not currently have any nonstop competition.

IND-PDX would also probably require mainline aircraft with PDX being located 1,877 miles west of IND.

AS is also more likely to add IND-PDX than DL is since most of DL's nonstop routes out of PDX are to its hubs, even though DL currently operates p2p nonstop international flights to AMS and TYO from PDX.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:10 am

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
adam47150 wrote:
Wow! Why the heck isn't DL on IND-PDX with at least 1xE75 daily?


Oops, should have pointed out that the infographic is both ways combined. Even with that considered, IND-PDX was still at 113 PDEW at an average of over $300 each way. So definitely a market that could sustain seasonal service from an airline.


AS adding IND-PDX nonstop service is a possibility with AS already serving PDX nonstop from ORD and MSP in the Midwest. AS also currently operates some nonstop routes out of PDX that do not currently have any nonstop competition.

IND-PDX would also probably require mainline aircraft with PDX being located 1,877 miles west of IND.

AS is also more likely to add IND-PDX than DL is since most of DL's nonstop routes out of PDX are to its hubs, even though DL currently operates p2p nonstop international flights to AMS and TYO from PDX.


I think SY is more likely to add IND-PDX over AS/DL.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:40 pm

IIB this week, top int'l targets for flights are LON, MEX, and Japan
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:04 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
IIB this week, top int'l targets for flights are LON, MEX, and Japan


For MEX to work, will it need to be mainline for cargo? Do you say LON because it could be LHR or LGW? I figured for business travel, it would be LHR. Is the IND cargo facility big enough to handle the additional cargo that would be going to these three locations?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:02 pm

stlgph wrote:
Indianapolis to St. Louis: Flights leave Indianapolis at 9:55 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. on weekdays, 4:45 p.m. on weekends. Return flights are 8:15 a.m. and 6:05 p.m. on weekdays, 10:30 a.m. on weekends.

Indianapolis to Nashville: Flights leave Indianapolis at 8:45 a.m. and 7:25 p.m. on weekdays, 11:45 a.m. on Saturdays, 7:25 p.m. on Sundays. Return flights are 7:25 a.m. and 4:55 p.m. on weekdays, and 4:55 p.m. on weekends.

Indianapolis to Pittsburgh: Flights leave Indianapolis at 12:15 p.m. on weekdays, 1:15 p.m. on weekends. Return flights are 2 p.m. daily.


Pittsburgh is probably the most viable city out of the three -- and has the worst schedule.

If this persuades WN to defend it's hubs and add IND to STL & BNA then Contour will probably disappear.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:50 pm

Checking out the new AA May schedule:

Up 4 daily flights YOY, 14% increase in daily seats, significantly closing the gap with DL:
IND-CLT: +1 mainline & switching to a mainline mix of A321/A320/A319, compared to last May's A319 only
IND-PHL: +1 mainline yoy
IND-MIA: Increases to 4x daily on Saturdays
IND-NYC: All E175, rolled forward from previous months
IND-DFW: +1 frequency, previously known
IND-LAX: +1 frequency, previously known

Indy 500, peak days are at 47 or 48 departures:
Schedule is different by day, so summarizing:
IND-PHL peaks at 7 a day
IND-MIA gains a B738
IND-CLT peaks at 9 a day, with a max of 5 mainline
IND-ORD gains a B738
IND-LGA gains a frequency

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IIB this week, top int'l targets for flights are LON, MEX, and Japan


For MEX to work, will it need to be mainline for cargo? Do you say LON because it could be LHR or LGW? I figured for business travel, it would be LHR. Is the IND cargo facility big enough to handle the additional cargo that would be going to these three locations?


Cargo building is being expanded, I don't think cargo will be a factor for IND-MEX though.

pmanni1 wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Indianapolis to St. Louis: Flights leave Indianapolis at 9:55 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. on weekdays, 4:45 p.m. on weekends. Return flights are 8:15 a.m. and 6:05 p.m. on weekdays, 10:30 a.m. on weekends.

Indianapolis to Nashville: Flights leave Indianapolis at 8:45 a.m. and 7:25 p.m. on weekdays, 11:45 a.m. on Saturdays, 7:25 p.m. on Sundays. Return flights are 7:25 a.m. and 4:55 p.m. on weekdays, and 4:55 p.m. on weekends.

Indianapolis to Pittsburgh: Flights leave Indianapolis at 12:15 p.m. on weekdays, 1:15 p.m. on weekends. Return flights are 2 p.m. daily.


Pittsburgh is probably the most viable city out of the three -- and has the worst schedule.

If this persuades WN to defend it's hubs and add IND to STL & BNA then Contour will probably disappear.


Any WN add would be the kiss of death for Contour
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:20 am

https://www.insideindianabusiness.com/c ... dy-airport

Here's the link to the Mario interview on Inside Indiana Business.
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Wingtips56
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:08 am

Seriously? Contour enters a market with 30-seat E-135s, and suddenly WN can fill multiple 737s? Then why wasn't WN already flying it?
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:29 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
Seriously? Contour enters a market with 30-seat E-135s, and suddenly WN can fill multiple 737s? Then why wasn't WN already flying it?


I miss where anyone suggests that WN will enter those markets with multiple 737s. There is simply a "what if" scenario suggesting the possibility that WN may decide to defend their hubs by adding service to chase out a competitor. It is an anticompetitive tactic, but it can work to ensure nobody creeps in on your turf. They could take a loss in the short term in order to ensure that Contour isn't a long term competitor. I don't think they will do this since they are already having to deal with not having enough aircraft.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:20 pm

kindeham wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
Seriously? Contour enters a market with 30-seat E-135s, and suddenly WN can fill multiple 737s? Then why wasn't WN already flying it?


I miss where anyone suggests that WN will enter those markets with multiple 737s. There is simply a "what if" scenario suggesting the possibility that WN may decide to defend their hubs by adding service to chase out a competitor. It is an anticompetitive tactic, but it can work to ensure nobody creeps in on your turf. They could take a loss in the short term in order to ensure that Contour isn't a long term competitor. I don't think they will do this since they are already having to deal with not having enough aircraft.


"Not quite sure where WN would be defending its 'hubs' by adding service it does not currently fly. Contour is targeting business travelers who want to fly to STL or BNA...no beyond flying. WN only "competes" on those routes via connecting service at MDW (for STL) and ATL/BWI for BNA. DL/AA/UA also fly connecting service I presume. WN could decide to fly IND-BNA and IND-STL....but that likely would cause IND-MCI to become one stop and IND-ATL might go away/be reduced."
 
ATAIndy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:05 pm

I don't think WN and Contour are competing for the same people here. Contour is trying to pick up some of the people who are currently driving to STL and BNA. Because of the short drive times, I doubt there are many people connecting IND/XXX/STL or BNA.
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:41 pm

Question, as I read other threads.... a lot of folks on the other thread are talking about VS and their JV with DL... and what other new destinations they could add. Obviously London is a target from IND if they want another Europe flight. Not saying they could support both CDG and a LON flight... but here is my question. Why wouldn’t DL want VS to pick up IND? Strong FF base here, and wouldn’t it keep AA/BA out? Or is it simply IND is truly low hanging fruit?
 
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flymco753
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:54 pm

fedex1 wrote:
Question, as I read other threads.... a lot of folks on the other thread are talking about VS and their JV with DL... and what other new destinations they could add. Obviously London is a target from IND if they want another Europe flight. Not saying they could support both CDG and a LON flight... but here is my question. Why wouldn’t DL want VS to pick up IND? Strong FF base here, and wouldn’t it keep AA/BA out? Or is it simply IND is truly low hanging fruit?
DL is looking to put VS where they compete with BA. If DL is going to London from IND it would be on DL metal.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:09 pm

fedex1 wrote:
Question, as I read other threads.... a lot of folks on the other thread are talking about VS and their JV with DL... and what other new destinations they could add. Obviously London is a target from IND if they want another Europe flight. Not saying they could support both CDG and a LON flight... but here is my question. Why wouldn’t DL want VS to pick up IND? Strong FF base here, and wouldn’t it keep AA/BA out? Or is it simply IND is truly low hanging fruit?


When IND gets London at some point it will be on BA, AA (unlikely), or DL. Not VS.
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:39 pm

Why would AA let BA do the flying? Unlike DL they do the lifting instead of AF? Just curious.
 
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stl07
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:42 pm

fedex1 wrote:
Why would AA let BA do the flying? Unlike DL they do the lifting instead of AF? Just curious.

Because AA follows the cornerstone stratagy. No non hub non hub routes. An extreamly stupid strategy that has cost them many profitable routes they cut out. Finally, AA is starting to break that with short domstic routes, but it will be a while before they do that with international.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:43 pm

fedex1 wrote:
Why would AA let BA do the flying? Unlike DL they do the lifting instead of AF? Just curious.


BA does the majority of the medium sized markets to LHR flying. AA only does RDU.

BA does BNA, AUS, PIT, MSY, soon to be PDX, etc. It's a bigger priority/target for BA than AA. AA isn't all that interested in doing flights like that.

In the DL/AF case DL does all the routes with their metal (AF is not interested in doing those types of routes to CDG)

In the BA/AA case BA does all those routes with their metal (AA is not interested in doing those types of routes to LHR with the exception of RDU)
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:47 pm

It must be making BA $$ or they wouldn’t do it correct? So they would rather BA come in and take routes instead of AA picking them up in their backyard per say?
I see ( from this thread ) MidWestIndy is showing AA is beefing up IND? Or is that me understanding his posts wrong? If that is so; what made them wait until Delta came in and beefed up their network in IND? Southwest seems like they are giving up ( yes I get the MAX issues) that’s hurting bad.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:50 pm

fedex1 wrote:
It must be making BA $$ or they wouldn’t do it correct? So they would rather BA come in and take routes instead of AA picking them up in their backyard per say?
I see ( from this thread ) MidWestIndy is showing AA is beefing up IND? Or is that me understanding his posts wrong? If that is so; what made them wait until Delta came in and beefed up their network in IND? Southwest seems like they are giving up ( yes I get the MAX issues) that’s hurting bad.


I believe AA is upping some capacity on their existing routes out of here if I read MidwestIndy's posts correctly. I'll let MidwestIndy comment on that himself.

BA is clearly making money on those routes. That is one of the main reasons why BA ordered the 787 aircraft so that routes like these would be economically possible. Without the 787 aircraft some of those routes would not work for them. AA is just uninterested in those types of routes with the exception of RDU.
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