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goosebayguy
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B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:42 pm

We are fast approaching a year of grounding of the B737 MAX. Boeing have produced the aircaft and the book price is about $100m for a brand new MAX. However aircraft depreciate over time just like cars. WOuld it lead to Boeing getting a lower sale price for a year old jet? If so how much would it be?
 
TropicalSky
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:55 pm

Very interesting question....would love hearing answers from folks in the know
 
cedarjet
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:13 pm

They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
VSMUT
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:43 pm

Aircraft degrade when they don't fly. An unflown but 1 year old aircraft will be full of problems that will need to be worked out. That will affect the value.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:48 pm

The production, undelivered ones weren’t issued a CoA or Export CoA, so technically they’re not airplanes. Once the CoA is attached, all the normal time limits start running. I’d guess these planes were well pickled and jet long-term storage standards.

GF
 
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OA940
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:49 pm

cedarjet wrote:
They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.


That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.
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HomeSlice
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:56 pm

That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.[/quote]

Something that is a big concern is relatively overlooked? You make it seem that Boeing and airlines have no clue how to store an aircraft.
 
workhorse
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:20 pm

Well, right now, the value of any (even brand new) MAX is equal to the value of its parts that can be re-used on a NG. :biggrin:
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:24 pm

OA940 wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.


That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.


Really? You think you just had an eye opening thought about aircraft storage?
 
Exeiowa
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:40 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
OA940 wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.


That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.


Really? You think you just had an eye opening thought about aircraft storage?


It's not a discussion we have had here yet that I remember, but I am sure someone has had to worry about it (this time or another) who has some interesting insight and then collectively we all learn more.
 
chrisfrommalawi
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:44 pm

What happens with the airlines that leased the aircraft? Are they still making the payments to the lesser on a grounded aircraft? Who takes care of the aircraft? (storage fees, etc)
 
goosebayguy
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:18 pm

The problem as I see it is that an aircraft basically has a 20 year life cycle. If it costs $100m brand new then that works out at $5m per year? Lose a year and surely the pruchase price is reduced? Engine hours are only advanced when in the air but the aircraft degrades over time with expansions heat cooling etc?
 
smartplane
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:31 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
OA940 wrote:

That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.


Really? You think you just had an eye opening thought about aircraft storage?


It's not a discussion we have had here yet that I remember, but I am sure someone has had to worry about it (this time or another) who has some interesting insight and then collectively we all learn more.

The storage anti must have changed markedly after 6 months, when presumably someone had to re-visit the storage precautions on aircraft produced earlier, and ditto on the aircraft already with customers.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:55 pm

Boeing will have to spend the cash to get the stored frames ready for delivery.

Most likely they'll still be zero hour (or close) frames when delivered.

Aircraft depreciate mostly through hours and cycles, not how long ago they left the production line.

You can still buy a zero hour, DC-3 (BT-67) today which left the factory floor 80 years ago. And it costs the same as a brand new aircraft from the competition.
 
BravoOne
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:38 am

cedarjet wrote:
They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.



My......where did you come up with that procedure? Maybe I just missed something, if so could you expand a little?
 
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Erebus
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:05 am

JetBuddy wrote:
You can still buy a zero hour, DC-3 (BT-67) today which left the factory floor 80 years ago. And it costs the same as a brand new aircraft from the competition.


Not entirely sure what you meant by the latter part referring to the competition, but the price the market today would pay for a zero hour DC-3 is dependent on the cash flows it is expected to generate for the buyer (unless someone is looking to buy purely as a collectors' item). This is not going to be the same as what it was 80 years ago when it left the factory for various reasons.
 
VSMUT
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:29 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
OA940 wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
They’re not really supposed to be left for a year. Even 30 days of parking requires a check. I mean you set the outside altitude for ground level a few hundred feet lower than it really is on the cabin pressurisation panel during descent to keep the fuselage pressurised while you’re taxiing to the gate, to help the fuselage stay rigid. That’s how sensitive these birds are. Regardless of fixing the infernal MCAS, these birds are going to have problems. Guaranteed.


That's probably a big concern that's been relatively overlooked. If an airline doesn't maintain them properly it could end pretty badly. I'm genuinely curious to see how Boeing and the customers handle this issue.


Really? You think you just had an eye opening thought about aircraft storage?


It isn't an eye opening thought. It is a simple fact. Aircraft that aren't used slowly wear out. There is no way around it. It happens to all the aircraft at the big storage yards too.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:33 am

Erebus wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
You can still buy a zero hour, DC-3 (BT-67) today which left the factory floor 80 years ago. And it costs the same as a brand new aircraft from the competition.


Not entirely sure what you meant by the latter part referring to the competition, but the price the market today would pay for a zero hour DC-3 is dependent on the cash flows it is expected to generate for the buyer (unless someone is looking to buy purely as a collectors' item). This is not going to be the same as what it was 80 years ago when it left the factory for various reasons.


That's not what I meant. I'm saying the BT-67 is sold as a new, zero hour aircraft - even though it left the production line 80 years ago. It sells at around the same price as new, similar performance aircraft are sold at. Like the latest DHC-6-400 Twin Otter or Cessna 408 SkyCourier.

The point I'm making is that the age of the original airframe doesn't matter that much with regards to the value. Hours and cycles are what matter.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:51 am

So... values please.
Anyone?
 
Pontius
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:24 am

ojjunior wrote:
So... values please.
Anyone?


None have changed hands for months. Any number would be conjecture. What is the value of krypton?
 
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Erebus
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:50 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Erebus wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
You can still buy a zero hour, DC-3 (BT-67) today which left the factory floor 80 years ago. And it costs the same as a brand new aircraft from the competition.


Not entirely sure what you meant by the latter part referring to the competition, but the price the market today would pay for a zero hour DC-3 is dependent on the cash flows it is expected to generate for the buyer (unless someone is looking to buy purely as a collectors' item). This is not going to be the same as what it was 80 years ago when it left the factory for various reasons.


That's not what I meant. I'm saying the BT-67 is sold as a new, zero hour aircraft - even though it left the production line 80 years ago. It sells at around the same price as new, similar performance aircraft are sold at. Like the latest DHC-6-400 Twin Otter or Cessna 408 SkyCourier.


Got it.

JetBuddy wrote:
The point I'm making is that the age of the original airframe doesn't matter that much with regards to the value. Hours and cycles are what matter.


More specifically, remaining useful life. We've seen low hour/cycle A318s for example being scrapped because they had no useful purpose other than for spare parts.
 
81819
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:14 am

Ultimately 737MAX aircraft will be valued on hours/cycles and the next due maintenance check.

I suspect once the MAX’s are back in the air their valuations will be based upon demand for the aircraft and not time spent in the desert. Considering the 737MAX is a new program, the early bird aircraft will probably have a longer in service life than the previous generation 737NG’s of the same vintage.

I think Boeing and (most of) their customers know how to maintain a plane.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:41 am

Additionally, not all MAXes are stored in the same conditions.
While some are basking in the sunny and very dry desert climate, others have been rotting away in hot and humid sub-tropical conditions for almost a year.
I'm guessing those will be a bit more of a pain to get airworthy again.
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keesje
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:42 am

I don't think it is realistic to estimate value and demand based on 2018 list value, cycles and hours, like nothing happened over last year. Airlines are into contigency plans, plan B's. Reshuffling network (weakest flights first), putting older aircraft through heavy checks, resfreshing cabins, buying used engines, doing SB's etc. I can assure you many don't want the MAX like they wanted it a year ago. Cancellations are kept quiet. Because no one is interested in a Boeing spiralling down.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
VSMUT
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:55 am

keesje wrote:
Cancellations are kept quiet. Because no one is interested in a Boeing spiralling down.


Or more likely, they have contractual obligations to keep cancellations confidential for now.
 
DLPMMM
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:41 am

Pontius wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
So... values please.
Anyone?


None have changed hands for months. Any number would be conjecture. What is the value of krypton?


The current price of Krypton (depending on purity) is between USD$100 and $200 per cubic meter.

You can purchase on Alibaba or from Praxair, depending on your location and needs.

I don’t know what that has to do with the value of the 737 MAX planes though.
 
StTim
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:52 am

VSMUT wrote:
keesje wrote:
Cancellations are kept quiet. Because no one is interested in a Boeing spiralling down.


Or more likely, they have contractual obligations to keep cancellations confidential for now.


That is what has surprised me - how few cancellations there have been.

I know switching to the A320 is a huge and costly change of strategy - and one that cannot be implemented quickly. But there must have been a lot of heart searching at airline fleet planning departments.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:10 pm

There is depreciation for sitting around too.
It's metal and metal corrodes. A lot less when sat in a dry desert, but still.
Landing gears also count calendar years rather than cycles/hours.
Avionics and EWIS and anything made of rubber or plastic, sealants, sealing o-rings and other type of seals, etc,... and such will also detediorate with time, being exposed to dry air makes matters worse in this case.
Seat belts.
Paint (erosion plus sun exposure)
Oils deteriorate with time.
Fuel tanks, funghi development and such.
Water lines (legionella).
Windows (as covered by plastics above).
Batteries of all kinds.
 
beaconinbound
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:14 pm

Pricing is always a result of individual and collective psychology in the light of supply and demand.

Many CFOs may see storage effects (or expected storage effects) as a chance to discuss pricing. Many may also want to leverage Boeings perceived weakness as an invitation to discuss pricing. They feel superior and play hardball; even more so as others cancel their orders alltogether. "Look we are loyal - but that comes at a price"...

On the other hand: The world needs the capacity presented by these birds - and Boeing knows that. They feel strong here. "If you want to make money with these birds, you´ll have to pay the full price - less some compensation as discussed in other threads.

How that all turns out is very uncertain at the moment. These situations are normally dominated by the "fence sitters": The quiet ones who fly into the direction of where the whole flock flies - at the last moment. Its not about what airlines think the result would be, but rather what they think, that the others think. Kind of second order decision making - like in the stock marktes.

Have a great year 2020 - and happy landings always.
Last edited by beaconinbound on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
VSMUT
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:15 pm

StTim wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
keesje wrote:
Cancellations are kept quiet. Because no one is interested in a Boeing spiralling down.


Or more likely, they have contractual obligations to keep cancellations confidential for now.


That is what has surprised me - how few cancellations there have been.


That's because they are keeping tight lips about it. There will be practically no announcements about cancellations until something more definitive happens.
Just like no sane airline will sign an order for the MAX as long as it is grounded, Boeing is not going to announce any cancellations.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:20 pm

If you visit Davis Monthan you will see that any windows are covered with foil to stop ultra violet light degrading internal fittings. Boeing has not done this which was probably fine when the delay was a month or three but a year? Perhaps Boeing will be changing their storage procedures when the 12 month mark is hit? Airlines that have received MAX's must be spending fortunes storing the aircraft. Daily charges at some airports are very high. The desert is about £10 a day but how much for other places?
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:46 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Boeing is not going to announce any cancellations.


I'm finding it difficult to believe, given all the SEC regulations and quarterly reporting, that Boeing could keep cancellations "secret" even if they and the customer didn't want it announced. Indeed, Boeing currently shows -119 "Contractual Changes" for 737 through end November without detailing who they're for.
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art
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:03 pm

StTim wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
keesje wrote:
Cancellations are kept quiet. Because no one is interested in a Boeing spiralling down.


Or more likely, they have contractual obligations to keep cancellations confidential for now.


That is what has surprised me - how few cancellations there have been.

I know switching to the A320 is a huge and costly change of strategy - and one that cannot be implemented quickly. But there must have been a lot of heart searching at airline fleet planning departments.


Airbus and Boeing have NB backlogs of many years. While both companies may keep some slots open for quick deliveries for new orders, neither could satisfy a demand for 1.000 a year so few airlines could switch from one OEM to the other quickly. Just as well for Boeing.
 
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zeke
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:32 pm

goosebayguy wrote:
We are fast approaching a year of grounding of the B737 MAX. Boeing have produced the aircaft and the book price is about $100m for a brand new MAX. However aircraft depreciate over time just like cars. WOuld it lead to Boeing getting a lower sale price for a year old jet? If so how much would it be?


I guess the closest you are going to get to an answer appeared in the news a few days ago when Boeing and Turkish airline came to an agreement for a reported 225 million for their 12 aircraft.

The deal was reported to be “$225 million including $150 million in compensation and $75 million covering things such as spare parts and training.”
(Source https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/12 ... x-thy.html )

If the 150 million was for the 12 aircraft that would report ant around 12 million a frame, or what I suspect to be around 25% of their purchase price.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
oschkosch
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:13 pm

zeke wrote:
goosebayguy wrote:
We are fast approaching a year of grounding of the B737 MAX. Boeing have produced the aircaft and the book price is about $100m for a brand new MAX. However aircraft depreciate over time just like cars. WOuld it lead to Boeing getting a lower sale price for a year old jet? If so how much would it be?


I guess the closest you are going to get to an answer appeared in the news a few days ago when Boeing and Turkish airline came to an agreement for a reported 225 million for their 12 aircraft.

The deal was reported to be “$225 million including $150 million in compensation and $75 million covering things such as spare parts and training.”
(Source https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/12 ... x-thy.html )

If the 150 million was for the 12 aircraft that would report ant around 12 million a frame, or what I suspect to be around 25% of their purchase price.
TK has 12 that were delivered plus another 12 that never left the Boeing parking lot, so 24 in total.

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nighthawk
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:25 pm

Slightly off topic, but what is happening in terms of the aircraft engines? I believe most of the production aircraft are stored without engines - are the engine manufacturers still producing them and storing them themselves, or are Boeing also storing the engines somewhere?
 
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Polot
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:42 pm

nighthawk wrote:
Slightly off topic, but what is happening in terms of the aircraft engines? I believe most of the production aircraft are stored without engines - are the engine manufacturers still producing them and storing them themselves, or are Boeing also storing the engines somewhere?

I believe most are stored with engines.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:51 pm

nighthawk wrote:
Slightly off topic, but what is happening in terms of the aircraft engines? I believe most of the production aircraft are stored without engines - are the engine manufacturers still producing them and storing them themselves, or are Boeing also storing the engines somewhere?


Most of the frames I have seen on pictures have engines. All frames flown out and stored should have engines. If there would have been an action of removing engines, somebody would have noticed and mentioned it.
 
jetmechanicdave
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Re: B737 MAX valuations

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:24 pm

There are plenty of Max discussion threads. This one will be locked.
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