We have known for years that there would be a fairly large number of fairly young 77Ws coming off lease in the next few years, but the prospects were good (pre COVID) that they would find new operators. They are not as efficient as the 787s and A350s now coming off the assembly lines, but are still efficient, oil prices are low, and they can be had for much less money. But everything is now changed. And large planes are particularly not in demand. So will we see some 12 to 15 year old 77Ws head to the scrappers? Or will the owners hold out until the market recovers?
In January, I would have bet any maintained with good paper 77W would find a new home.
The 777-300ERSF will soak up some of the surplus, but with QR, EK, and EY expected to replace their older 77L/77W, I think the available supply will exceed demand for too long. Sadly, we will see a good quantity of widebodies scrapped, including 77Ws.
I pasted this in the aircraft Lease/Values thread:https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/30/hotr-values-plunge/
The oldest 77Ws lost a third of their value due to Covid19. I expect the slide to continue. Suddenly there is a business case for scrappers to buy 77Ws.
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.