Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
727LOVER
Posts: 8622
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:54 am

So what exactly is a base?

Are the orange dot cities bases...or just where they have vacation packages?

https://www.allegiantair.com/route-map
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
flybaby
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 5:20 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:36 am

727LOVER wrote:
So what exactly is a base?

Are the orange dot cities bases...or just where they have vacation packages?

https://www.allegiantair.com/route-map


Yeah, it’s basically vacation packages. SAN and JAX for example are orange but aren’t bases.

A base means an aircraft is parked at the airport overnight and crews are from the local area. Unlike most airlines, in nearly all circumstances Allegiant equipment and crew return to their base at the end of a day of flying. They only rarely have crew and equipment rest overnight at a remote location.
 
User avatar
tjwgrr
Posts: 2499
Joined: Fri Mar 24, 2000 4:09 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:29 pm

flybaby wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
So what exactly is a base?

Are the orange dot cities bases...or just where they have vacation packages?

https://www.allegiantair.com/route-map


Yeah, it’s basically vacation packages. SAN and JAX for example are orange but aren’t bases.

A base means an aircraft is parked at the airport overnight and crews are from the local area. Unlike most airlines, in nearly all circumstances Allegiant equipment and crew return to their base at the end of a day of flying. They only rarely have crew and equipment rest overnight at a remote location.


Here in GRR we are a base for four G4 aircraft. In addition to flight crews being based locally, there are also MX personnel.

The GRR ramp is quite crowded with RON mainline and regional aircraft. 24 last night.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 189
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:27 pm

HVN next in line. "1. Executive Director’s Report. Allegiant Airlines has expressed enthusiastic interest in operating out of Tweed. The airline participated in a call with the
governor’s administration and are willing to begin service prior to the runway being lengthened."
http://flytweed.com/files/Board_Minutes ... y_2020.pdf
 
jgcotter
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:29 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:40 pm

A320 N293NV is en route from GYR to IWA/AZA to enter active service. 57 x A320 active now at Allegiant.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N293NV
 
jgcotter
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:29 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:27 pm

jgcotter wrote:
A320 N293NV is en route from GYR to IWA/AZA to enter active service. 57 x A320 active now at Allegiant.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N293NV

Filed for IWA/AZA and diverted back to GYR.
 
lat41
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:23 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:01 pm

airlineworker wrote:
HVN next in line. "1. Executive Director’s Report. Allegiant Airlines has expressed enthusiastic interest in operating out of Tweed. The airline participated in a call with the
governor’s administration and are willing to begin service prior to the runway being lengthened."
http://flytweed.com/files/Board_Minutes ... y_2020.pdf

ILS right now only on the RWY 2 end. They can drop into PVD for bad weather in a pinch.
 
jgcotter
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:29 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:17 am

A320 N239NV is en route from LCQ to BQN for further induction work.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N239NV
 
jgcotter
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:29 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm

Alaska is starting to return their A320s at the end of their leases. One is sitting in Marana with its engines and Alaska logo removed. One has ferried overseas.
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9629042
Their stated intent is to return all their A319s and A320s as their leases expire. The A320s may finally be at a price point Allegiant can work with to acquire. I think American has eyes on the A319s.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:55 pm

Allegiant now expected to cut 30-35% of their scheduled flights for April/May

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... nal-impact
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
jgcotter
Posts: 894
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:29 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:12 pm

A320 N238NV is en route from VQQ to BQN for further induction work.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N238NV
 
IAmGaroott
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:37 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 1:59 am

I heard today that higher cycle aircraft will start leaving the Allegiant fleet soon. N231NV was named specifically. Has anyone else heard these rumors?
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 8:12 am

IAmGaroott wrote:
I heard today that higher cycle aircraft will start leaving the Allegiant fleet soon. N231NV was named specifically. Has anyone else heard these rumors?


It’s been widely rumored around the mill that a handful of the oldest A320s and some A319s would be parked for good. 231 is one of the older ones in the fleet, so it would make sense it would be going to the scrapper.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
Flaps
Posts: 1651
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2000 1:11 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:19 pm

cbphoto wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
I heard today that higher cycle aircraft will start leaving the Allegiant fleet soon. N231NV was named specifically. Has anyone else heard these rumors?


It’s been widely rumored around the mill that a handful of the oldest A320s and some A319s would be parked for good. 231 is one of the older ones in the fleet, so it would make sense it would be going to the scrapper.


If 310NV would end up in that group I would be a happy man.
 
IAmGaroott
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:37 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:20 pm

Flaps wrote:
cbphoto wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
I heard today that higher cycle aircraft will start leaving the Allegiant fleet soon. N231NV was named specifically. Has anyone else heard these rumors?


It’s been widely rumored around the mill that a handful of the oldest A320s and some A319s would be parked for good. 231 is one of the older ones in the fleet, so it would make sense it would be going to the scrapper.


If 310NV would end up in that group I would be a happy man.

I used to work 310 at PIE all the time. I recall it getting a windshield replacement, but I can't remember its condition off the top of my head.

I'd add 222 and 228 to the list as well.
 
Flaps
Posts: 1651
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2000 1:11 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 8:10 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
Flaps wrote:
cbphoto wrote:

It’s been widely rumored around the mill that a handful of the oldest A320s and some A319s would be parked for good. 231 is one of the older ones in the fleet, so it would make sense it would be going to the scrapper.


If 310NV would end up in that group I would be a happy man.

I used to work 310 at PIE all the time. I recall it getting a windshield replacement, but I can't remember its condition off the top of my head.

I'd add 222 and 228 to the list as well.


310 flies nicely but its loaded with gremlins. She'll be fine for a month then its two months of one problem after another, mostly electrical. Lots of false warnings. 301 is another one that I wouldn't miss although I haven't had that one for quite awhile..
 
guy739
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:48 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 1:10 am

225NV, or as she is known around the system as “Christine” and her sister bird 226NV should be the first to get scrapped.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2011
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:50 am

N228NV is the Visit Florida jet. I remember she was a frequent visitor to SBN. She had to be repaired up there once and as soon as she got back to Florida she flew on another flight. I think she was also the one that had hydraulic issues. Seems to be a hangar queen according to some of you.
 
IAmGaroott
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:37 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 1:54 pm

freakyrat wrote:
N228NV is the Visit Florida jet. I remember she was a frequent visitor to SBN. She had to be repaired up there once and as soon as she got back to Florida she flew on another flight. I think she was also the one that had hydraulic issues. Seems to be a hangar queen according to some of you.

Even though 228 is special to me being the first ac I ever pushed, it has always been a pain to work with. The expansion joints in the bins are all uneven making loading and unloading a very difficult, it needs an air start all the time, hydraulic issues as you mentioned, and I can recall a flight where it was leaving PIE full, but had ONLY ONE working lav. It was a 2hr flight.
 
nws2002
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:04 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 4:47 pm

The Saudi aircraft were terrible at first, but they eventually worked themselves out.

218NV was always my personal nemesis, "make a wish it leaves" we always said. Even on my last day working there I had a 4 hour mx delay because of that one.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2011
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 5:31 pm

nws2002 wrote:
The Saudi aircraft were terrible at first, but they eventually worked themselves out.

218NV was always my personal nemesis, "make a wish it leaves" we always said. Even on my last day working there I had a 4 hour mx delay because of that one.


That airplane has been in South Bend many times to grant wishes to kids.
 
IAmGaroott
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:37 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 8:19 pm

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... al-results

Looks like it's official. Up to 25 aircraft leaving the fleet.
 
B747forever
Posts: 13848
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 9:14 pm

Has G4 finalized their June/July/August schedule yet? How reliable is the current schedule that is for sale?
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20004
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 9:40 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-first-quarter-2020-financial-results

Looks like it's official. Up to 25 aircraft leaving the fleet.

Where did you see aircraft leaving the fleet? I saw they expected to finance incoming aircraft.

I'm not saying aircraft will not leave the fleet, I just couldn't find the official news in the PR.

I think G4 has some of the most informative presentations, so I look forward to them being online.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 10:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-first-quarter-2020-financial-results

Looks like it's official. Up to 25 aircraft leaving the fleet.

Where did you see aircraft leaving the fleet? I saw they expected to finance incoming aircraft.

I'm not saying aircraft will not leave the fleet, I just couldn't find the official news in the PR.

I think G4 has some of the most informative presentations, so I look forward to them being online.

Lightsaber


It was officially announced in the earnings call. 25 to be parked, some to be retired, to beef up the spares inventory and defer heavy mx on others. Though new (used) airplanes will continue to enter the fleet and they plan to be at their current fleet total by this time next year. They are also trying to simplify the fleet when it comes to passenger configurations, meaning they probably want more airplanes that are 186 seat compatible.

Airline made money last quarter, 12% profit margin, which is phenomenal considering everything. Non airline stuff did cause a loss for the quarter. Overall, good numbers on Allegiant’s spreadsheet.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
Flaps
Posts: 1651
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2000 1:11 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 11:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-first-quarter-2020-financial-results

Looks like it's official. Up to 25 aircraft leaving the fleet.

Where did you see aircraft leaving the fleet? I saw they expected to finance incoming aircraft.

I'm not saying aircraft will not leave the fleet, I just couldn't find the official news in the PR.

I think G4 has some of the most informative presentations, so I look forward to them being online.

Lightsaber


Fifth paragraph below the tables:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... al-results

"Near term is painful and will continue to be painful. But I believe our model, given the current economic impact, is best-suited to withstand the brutal impact from this pandemic. In the near term, we will most likely shrink our fleet by as many as 25 aircraft. These aircraft, particularly the motors, will 'seed' our near and long-term ability to materially reduce planned engine overhauls, beginning in 2020 and for years thereafter. Going forward, the market will favor buyers, not sellers as has been the case the past few years. We will be able to use our expertise, as we did with the MD80s, to purchase aircraft and associated parts at what we believe will be substantial discounts to recent prices. We will 'manage' planned overhauls via our balance sheet versus expensive overhaul shop visits. Another substantial advantage is that we do not have meaningful aircraft purchase commitments in 2021 and beyond. The combination of our retirements and the greatly reduced cost of used aircraft and their motors is a key part of both our near-term liquidity benefit and long-term - 2021 and beyond - reduced capital requirements for our growth. Finally, I am reminded of a saying I used with our MD80s, namely 'we were a non-capital-intensive business in a capital-intensive industry.'
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 11:59 pm

G4 is in a great position right now:

"The majority of people in our surveys have reported that their personal financial situation has stayed the same or gotten better. In the midwest, mid atlantic, upper west, they don't share the same opinion that is being put out on the evening news"

Management says it is making a "cash call" on every single flight and only running it if it is profitable.

Core Midwest origin markets are showing signs of a quick recovery. Also, there is steady growth in the qualified searches on the website since mid-April & searches are beginning to convert to bookings, particularly on the FL west coast beaches.

This is all really good news, G4 can heavily capitalize on PIE, PGD, SRQ, & VPS, a toolbox few other carriers can utilize given most carriers focus their Florida operations in Orlando & South Florida.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 69
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 12:40 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Management says it is making a "cash call" on every single flight and only running it if it is profitable.


So they are selling flights but only running them if it’s going to be profitable and otherwise canceling them? Is that even legal, to sell something you have no intention of completing if it ends up not being profitable?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 12:49 am

Allegiant and their model will work well in this climate. They will expand and shrink as needed to make more money. Not great to work for this kind of employer but they will be the first to return to profitability.
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 12:51 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Management says it is making a "cash call" on every single flight and only running it if it is profitable.


So they are selling flights but only running them if it’s going to be profitable and otherwise canceling them? Is that even legal, to sell something you have no intention of completing if it ends up not being profitable?


I think you are looking at it the wrong way. They are selling with every intention of running the flight. If at 7 days out, the flight is not to their load factor, They either cancel and issue refunds/vouchers or add it as a through flight and pair it with another city.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20004
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 3:25 am

They now have the call up:

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/n2vei9n6

Flaps wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-first-quarter-2020-financial-results

Looks like it's official. Up to 25 aircraft leaving the fleet.

Where did you see aircraft leaving the fleet? I saw they expected to finance incoming aircraft.

I'm not saying aircraft will not leave the fleet, I just couldn't find the official news in the PR.

I think G4 has some of the most informative presentations, so I look forward to them being online.

Lightsaber


Fifth paragraph below the tables:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... al-results

"Near term is painful and will continue to be painful. But I believe our model, given the current economic impact, is best-suited to withstand the brutal impact from this pandemic. In the near term, we will most likely shrink our fleet by as many as 25 aircraft. These aircraft, particularly the motors, will 'seed' our near and long-term ability to materially reduce planned engine overhauls, beginning in 2020 and for years thereafter. Going forward, the market will favor buyers, not sellers as has been the case the past few years. We will be able to use our expertise, as we did with the MD80s, to purchase aircraft and associated parts at what we believe will be substantial discounts to recent prices. We will 'manage' planned overhauls via our balance sheet versus expensive overhaul shop visits. Another substantial advantage is that we do not have meaningful aircraft purchase commitments in 2021 and beyond. The combination of our retirements and the greatly reduced cost of used aircraft and their motors is a key part of both our near-term liquidity benefit and long-term - 2021 and beyond - reduced capital requirements for our growth. Finally, I am reminded of a saying I used with our MD80s, namely 'we were a non-capital-intensive business in a capital-intensive industry.'

Thank you, I must have glazed over.

However, per verbal in the call, 10 to 15 to be retired to avoid maintenance. I assume use these until the next expensive maintenance is due. 25 parked (including scrapped).

The call noted an expectation of A320s and A319s (my opinion, emphasis on those for "motors") becoming available. I'm betting green engines are the target for buying. CFM has a reputation of expensive overhauls.

Fleet in 2021 roughly the size it is today (due to purchase contracts). So not shrinking a year from now (but shrinking in 2020).

No more capital into Sunseeker for at least 18 months.... That means a 2023 opening, at best.

Looking at a near term recovery based on health and economic health.

Surgical identification of demand, demand growing since mid-April.

Need theme parks and stadiums to open up for the next step function increase in travel.

I interpret this as the engines (I know G4 says motors, I think engines) will be used from parted and parked aircraft, probably delaying entry back into service unless a bunch of used aircraft are bought. But buying on finance purchases of aircraft and engines (motors). Cutting maintenance spend over $60 million.

I think Allegiant will do well. I expect to hear in 2021:
1. A profit.
2. Heavy buying of used aircraft. I bet some speculative buying of A319s for engines. Opportunistic buying of A320s once aircraft pricing corrects.

I really want to see the A320CEO values and lease pricing, but until there are significant transactions, it is speculation. But in my opinion, 30% of the aircraft out there are now surplus.

Lightsaber

PS no mention of cruise traffic. I thought G4 served that market too.
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1825
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:12 am

Good news that Maury is dissolving himself of maintenance on the next batch of Airbus heavy checks. His track record with maintenance and safety is sullied, to say the least.

lightsaber wrote:
They now have the call up:

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/n2vei9n6

Flaps wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Where did you see aircraft leaving the fleet? I saw they expected to finance incoming aircraft.

I'm not saying aircraft will not leave the fleet, I just couldn't find the official news in the PR.

I think G4 has some of the most informative presentations, so I look forward to them being online.

Lightsaber


Fifth paragraph below the tables:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... al-results

"Near term is painful and will continue to be painful. But I believe our model, given the current economic impact, is best-suited to withstand the brutal impact from this pandemic. In the near term, we will most likely shrink our fleet by as many as 25 aircraft. These aircraft, particularly the motors, will 'seed' our near and long-term ability to materially reduce planned engine overhauls, beginning in 2020 and for years thereafter. Going forward, the market will favor buyers, not sellers as has been the case the past few years. We will be able to use our expertise, as we did with the MD80s, to purchase aircraft and associated parts at what we believe will be substantial discounts to recent prices. We will 'manage' planned overhauls via our balance sheet versus expensive overhaul shop visits. Another substantial advantage is that we do not have meaningful aircraft purchase commitments in 2021 and beyond. The combination of our retirements and the greatly reduced cost of used aircraft and their motors is a key part of both our near-term liquidity benefit and long-term - 2021 and beyond - reduced capital requirements for our growth. Finally, I am reminded of a saying I used with our MD80s, namely 'we were a non-capital-intensive business in a capital-intensive industry.'

Thank you, I must have glazed over.

However, per verbal in the call, 10 to 15 to be retired to avoid maintenance. I assume use these until the next expensive maintenance is due. 25 parked (including scrapped).

The call noted an expectation of A320s and A319s (my opinion, emphasis on those for "motors") becoming available. I'm betting green engines are the target for buying. CFM has a reputation of expensive overhauls.

Fleet in 2021 roughly the size it is today (due to purchase contracts). So not shrinking a year from now (but shrinking in 2020).

No more capital into Sunseeker for at least 18 months.... That means a 2023 opening, at best.

Looking at a near term recovery based on health and economic health.

Surgical identification of demand, demand growing since mid-April.

Need theme parks and stadiums to open up for the next step function increase in travel.

I interpret this as the engines (I know G4 says motors, I think engines) will be used from parted and parked aircraft, probably delaying entry back into service unless a bunch of used aircraft are bought. But buying on finance purchases of aircraft and engines (motors). Cutting maintenance spend over $60 million.

I think Allegiant will do well. I expect to hear in 2021:
1. A profit.
2. Heavy buying of used aircraft. I bet some speculative buying of A319s for engines. Opportunistic buying of A320s once aircraft pricing corrects.

I really want to see the A320CEO values and lease pricing, but until there are significant transactions, it is speculation. But in my opinion, 30% of the aircraft out there are now surplus.

Lightsaber

PS no mention of cruise traffic. I thought G4 served that market too.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 854
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:42 am

Significant info here. Thanks. Could see the 7 day out business strategy really irking some customers though, especially with the potential of irregular ops with a reduced fleet size.

At least it is a plan for survival maybe.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 3:24 pm

Any news about the pending MDW service? Aside from the MDW Ticket counter signs all Chicago advertising has vanished?

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 3:48 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Any news about the pending MDW service? Aside from the MDW Ticket counter signs all Chicago advertising has vanished?

Flyguy


Pretty sure it has been postponed indefinitely, as well as BOS and HOU.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 220
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 4:02 pm

I think Allegiant does okay out of this. They are very good at random route/day scheduling and can figure out how to balance and fill up planes. Once Vegas and Disney reopens I expect slow but somewhat normal Ops. They’re in a better spot that most US carriers.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3194
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 4:12 pm

cbphoto wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Any news about the pending MDW service? Aside from the MDW Ticket counter signs all Chicago advertising has vanished?

Flyguy


Pretty sure it has been postponed indefinitely, as well as BOS and HOU.


BOS service for the summer has been cancelled, meaning no GRR service at all. AVL/TYS/VPS are still bookable for the fall, but whether or not that happens remains to be seen.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
airboeingbus
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:38 pm

Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 2:24 pm

Interesting article, Allegiant is using the current pandemic to purchase more A320's.

Chief executive of allegiant travel said: "In my belief, we will begin to see numbers of older A320s and A319-100s and their motors available as part of our opportunities in the not too distant future and prices will begin to react accordingly"

Also adding: "Furthermore, we will be one of the few players I believe in the market with the wherewithal to purchase these assets"

LINK: https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 0s-engines
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2838
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 2:27 pm

Alaska just got rid of a few...
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 2:41 pm

I can see G4 making some moves..... IMO, they are in the best position of any US carrier with their low costs and their plethora of bases in reopened Florida. They have already seen searches & web traffic outpace the same periods last year. Their cash burn was already extremely low (1-2M per day), but the CARES Act funding essentially covers all cash burn, and likely then some for the forseeable future.

Given this, they'll likely be the first carrier to grow after the pandemic.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 220
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 2:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I can see G4 making some moves..... IMO, they are in the best position of any US carrier with their low costs and their plethora of bases in reopened Florida. They have already seen searches & web traffic outpace the same periods last year. Their cash burn was already extremely low (1-2M per day), but the CARES Act funding essentially covers all cash burn, and likely then some for the forseeable future.

Given this, they'll likely be the first carrier to grow after the pandemic.

Totally agree. They are experts at what appear to be random routes and dates for scheduling, but make it work. They’ll easily figure out where the people want to go and tap into it. They’re very well positioned.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20004
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 2:54 pm

In the future. When traffic grows enough. I also listed to the whole conference call and cane away with the opinion they were buying "motors" (engines) where that was cheaper than overhauls:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/events-and-p ... ast-events

They will buy used A320s, but not until the cash burn is manageable.

Now, earlier than we know traffic has recovered, Allegiant will buy. With all the differed and returned aircraft, the supply will spike. It will take the sales by other airlines in desperation to get to the opportunistic pricing (my words) Allegiant will wait for.

Liaten to the conference call. They will first scrap 10 to 15 while parking 25 (includes scrapped planes). So no buying for a few months.

They already plan to be back up to prior fleet size in 2021.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 774
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri May 15, 2020 7:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
In the future. When traffic grows enough. I also listed to the whole conference call and cane away with the opinion they were buying "motors" (engines) where that was cheaper than overhauls:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/events-and-p ... ast-events

They will buy used A320s, but not until the cash burn is manageable.

Now, earlier than we know traffic has recovered, Allegiant will buy. With all the differed and returned aircraft, the supply will spike. It will take the sales by other airlines in desperation to get to the opportunistic pricing (my words) Allegiant will wait for.

Liaten to the conference call. They will first scrap 10 to 15 while parking 25 (includes scrapped planes). So no buying for a few months.

They already plan to be back up to prior fleet size in 2021.

Lightsaber


Allegiant will probably part out some of the ex-Cebu Pacific A319's and a few of the oldest ex-Iberia A320's. When Allegiant took the ex-Cebu A319's they had been "flown hard & put away wet", but they were the best deal they could find in a seller's market. The ex-Iberia A320's had been retired from mainline, then flown a few years with their Express division, then retired again. Most of them are past, or pushing the 20-year age mark.
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4424
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 1:22 am

n7371f wrote:
Good news that Maury is dissolving himself of maintenance on the next batch of Airbus heavy checks. His track record with maintenance and safety is sullied, to say the least.

lightsaber wrote:
They now have the call up:

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/n2vei9n6

Flaps wrote:

Fifth paragraph below the tables:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... al-results

"Near term is painful and will continue to be painful. But I believe our model, given the current economic impact, is best-suited to withstand the brutal impact from this pandemic. In the near term, we will most likely shrink our fleet by as many as 25 aircraft. These aircraft, particularly the motors, will 'seed' our near and long-term ability to materially reduce planned engine overhauls, beginning in 2020 and for years thereafter. Going forward, the market will favor buyers, not sellers as has been the case the past few years. We will be able to use our expertise, as we did with the MD80s, to purchase aircraft and associated parts at what we believe will be substantial discounts to recent prices. We will 'manage' planned overhauls via our balance sheet versus expensive overhaul shop visits. Another substantial advantage is that we do not have meaningful aircraft purchase commitments in 2021 and beyond. The combination of our retirements and the greatly reduced cost of used aircraft and their motors is a key part of both our near-term liquidity benefit and long-term - 2021 and beyond - reduced capital requirements for our growth. Finally, I am reminded of a saying I used with our MD80s, namely 'we were a non-capital-intensive business in a capital-intensive industry.'

Thank you, I must have glazed over.

However, per verbal in the call, 10 to 15 to be retired to avoid maintenance. I assume use these until the next expensive maintenance is due. 25 parked (including scrapped).

The call noted an expectation of A320s and A319s (my opinion, emphasis on those for "motors") becoming available. I'm betting green engines are the target for buying. CFM has a reputation of expensive overhauls.

Fleet in 2021 roughly the size it is today (due to purchase contracts). So not shrinking a year from now (but shrinking in 2020).

No more capital into Sunseeker for at least 18 months.... That means a 2023 opening, at best.

Looking at a near term recovery based on health and economic health.

Surgical identification of demand, demand growing since mid-April.

Need theme parks and stadiums to open up for the next step function increase in travel.

I interpret this as the engines (I know G4 says motors, I think engines) will be used from parted and parked aircraft, probably delaying entry back into service unless a bunch of used aircraft are bought. But buying on finance purchases of aircraft and engines (motors). Cutting maintenance spend over $60 million.

I think Allegiant will do well. I expect to hear in 2021:
1. A profit.
2. Heavy buying of used aircraft. I bet some speculative buying of A319s for engines. Opportunistic buying of A320s once aircraft pricing corrects.

I really want to see the A320CEO values and lease pricing, but until there are significant transactions, it is speculation. But in my opinion, 30% of the aircraft out there are now surplus.

Lightsaber

PS no mention of cruise traffic. I thought G4 served that market too.


You literally read my mind. Deferring heavy checks. Wow. I have no words.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1258
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 3:16 am

F9Animal wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Good news that Maury is dissolving himself of maintenance on the next batch of Airbus heavy checks. His track record with maintenance and safety is sullied, to say the least.

lightsaber wrote:
They now have the call up:

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/n2vei9n6


Thank you, I must have glazed over.

However, per verbal in the call, 10 to 15 to be retired to avoid maintenance. I assume use these until the next expensive maintenance is due. 25 parked (including scrapped).

The call noted an expectation of A320s and A319s (my opinion, emphasis on those for "motors") becoming available. I'm betting green engines are the target for buying. CFM has a reputation of expensive overhauls.

Fleet in 2021 roughly the size it is today (due to purchase contracts). So not shrinking a year from now (but shrinking in 2020).

No more capital into Sunseeker for at least 18 months.... That means a 2023 opening, at best.

Looking at a near term recovery based on health and economic health.

Surgical identification of demand, demand growing since mid-April.

Need theme parks and stadiums to open up for the next step function increase in travel.

I interpret this as the engines (I know G4 says motors, I think engines) will be used from parted and parked aircraft, probably delaying entry back into service unless a bunch of used aircraft are bought. But buying on finance purchases of aircraft and engines (motors). Cutting maintenance spend over $60 million.

I think Allegiant will do well. I expect to hear in 2021:
1. A profit.
2. Heavy buying of used aircraft. I bet some speculative buying of A319s for engines. Opportunistic buying of A320s once aircraft pricing corrects.

I really want to see the A320CEO values and lease pricing, but until there are significant transactions, it is speculation. But in my opinion, 30% of the aircraft out there are now surplus.

Lightsaber

PS no mention of cruise traffic. I thought G4 served that market too.


You literally read my mind. Deferring heavy checks. Wow. I have no words.


No words for what? Why pay all the money for a heavy check when the plane is not needed in the fleet currently? Obviously when they bring the plane back to revenue service, it will have a heavy check prior to its first passenger flight back. Delta is literally doing the same thing with some of its fleet. Drama much?
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20004
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 12:34 am

cbphoto wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Good news that Maury is dissolving himself of maintenance on the next batch of Airbus heavy checks. His track record with maintenance and safety is sullied, to say the least.



You literally read my mind. Deferring heavy checks. Wow. I have no words.


No words for what? Why pay all the money for a heavy check when the plane is not needed in the fleet currently? Obviously when they bring the plane back to revenue service, it will have a heavy check prior to its first passenger flight back. Delta is literally doing the same thing with some of its fleet. Drama much?

Any airline not differing heavy checks at this time, when such a large part of the fleet should be parked, is throwing money away. Contracts are being re-negotiated. Use the green time and park. When the number of aircraft available are approaching what is needed for service, spares, and projected growth, then put aircraft through maintenance. Probably at first C-checks and later heavy maintenance visits (or the heavier C checks). Right now is all about cash flow management.

Delta is doing it, but honoring a few contracts and sending a few aircraft into maintenance. But they are not buying parts. If Delta doesn't already own the part, I'm not sure what they are doing (either take it from another aircraft or send the aircraft out of the maintenance check with parts that will soon need replacement).
Allegiant did a more 'bid as you go" maintenance system. That allows them to turn off their spending more.

I compare Delta and Allegiant as they seem to be the most numbers run of the US airlines. They are the two I'm watching to see how this recovery goes.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2217
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 3:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
cbphoto wrote:
F9Animal wrote:

You literally read my mind. Deferring heavy checks. Wow. I have no words.


No words for what? Why pay all the money for a heavy check when the plane is not needed in the fleet currently? Obviously when they bring the plane back to revenue service, it will have a heavy check prior to its first passenger flight back. Delta is literally doing the same thing with some of its fleet. Drama much?

Any airline not differing heavy checks at this time, when such a large part of the fleet should be parked, is throwing money away. Contracts are being re-negotiated. Use the green time and park. When the number of aircraft available are approaching what is needed for service, spares, and projected growth, then put aircraft through maintenance. Probably at first C-checks and later heavy maintenance visits (or the heavier C checks). Right now is all about cash flow management.

Delta is doing it, but honoring a few contracts and sending a few aircraft into maintenance. But they are not buying parts. If Delta doesn't already own the part, I'm not sure what they are doing (either take it from another aircraft or send the aircraft out of the maintenance check with parts that will soon need replacement).
Allegiant did a more 'bid as you go" maintenance system. That allows them to turn off their spending more.

I compare Delta and Allegiant as they seem to be the most numbers run of the US airlines. They are the two I'm watching to see how this recovery goes.

Lightsaber


Allegiant will turn down a lot of offers initially, its like when Condo's are in a glut, the bottom feeders wait until the sellers are Desperate, no really Desperate. A lessor that gets back 50 ceo planes when an airline has gone BK will be highly motivated, in particular if they feel values are still falling. Summer will be a great time to buy great pickups or SUV's.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2157
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 3:42 pm

I noticed they have been combining some
Flights lately which seems to be a good way to keep them going. From
My market I’ve seen Cedar Rapids-Mesa route has been combined with MLI. IWA -MLI-CID-IWA. The mesa flight last night was combined with Traverse City. I’ve also seen an SFB flight combined with SBN
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20004
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 12:50 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
cbphoto wrote:

No words for what? Why pay all the money for a heavy check when the plane is not needed in the fleet currently? Obviously when they bring the plane back to revenue service, it will have a heavy check prior to its first passenger flight back. Delta is literally doing the same thing with some of its fleet. Drama much?

Any airline not differing heavy checks at this time, when such a large part of the fleet should be parked, is throwing money away. Contracts are being re-negotiated. Use the green time and park. When the number of aircraft available are approaching what is needed for service, spares, and projected growth, then put aircraft through maintenance. Probably at first C-checks and later heavy maintenance visits (or the heavier C checks). Right now is all about cash flow management.

Delta is doing it, but honoring a few contracts and sending a few aircraft into maintenance. But they are not buying parts. If Delta doesn't already own the part, I'm not sure what they are doing (either take it from another aircraft or send the aircraft out of the maintenance check with parts that will soon need replacement).
Allegiant did a more 'bid as you go" maintenance system. That allows them to turn off their spending more.

I compare Delta and Allegiant as they seem to be the most numbers run of the US airlines. They are the two I'm watching to see how this recovery goes.

Lightsaber


Allegiant will turn down a lot of offers initially, its like when Condo's are in a glut, the bottom feeders wait until the sellers are Desperate, no really Desperate. A lessor that gets back 50 ceo planes when an airline has gone BK will be highly motivated, in particular if they feel values are still falling. Summer will be a great time to buy great pickups or SUV's.

I agree with your analogy. It won't be time to buy, do maintenance checks, or otherwise spend until the 2nd round of desperation. Nor buy a car. I'd like a new vehicle, buying a 2020 in 2021 seems wise. The same with aircraft. Only after it is obvious the buyers market will last will prices fully adjust.

Lightsaber

Late edit: LAXintl posted in the excellent aircraft values thread how A319CEO values have dropped 10% to 25%.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991 (I quoted in latest post.)

As A319s were selling at scrap for 12+ year old examples or more for newer, this implies the scrap value dropped about 10% and the opperating value even more.

A320s dropped 5% to 19%, which implies the opperating value dropped by that amount.

Sellers aren't desperate yet. So Allegiant should go ahead with scrapping A319s and A320s to minimize cash burn now. There will be opportunities later.
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 1:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Given this, they'll likely be the first carrier to grow after the pandemic.


G4 has seen a huge jump in flights & reactivated a number of aircraft in the past week, flights were down 58% which is up significantly from -74% the week prior & -81% 2 weeks prior:

Only 17% of Allegiant's fleet was not operating last week.
Image
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos