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freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
G4 is in a great position right now:

"The majority of people in our surveys have reported that their personal financial situation has stayed the same or gotten better. In the midwest, mid atlantic, upper west, they don't share the same opinion that is being put out on the evening news"

Management says it is making a "cash call" on every single flight and only running it if it is profitable.

Core Midwest origin markets are showing signs of a quick recovery. Also, there is steady growth in the qualified searches on the website since mid-April & searches are beginning to convert to bookings, particularly on the FL west coast beaches.

This is all really good news, G4 can heavily capitalize on PIE, PGD, SRQ, & VPS, a toolbox few other carriers can utilize given most carriers focus their Florida operations in Orlando & South Florida.


G4 ran a SBN-LAS flight today the first one in over 2 months. Maybe that is a good sign.
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Mon May 18, 2020 10:13 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
In the future. When traffic grows enough. I also listed to the whole conference call and cane away with the opinion they were buying "motors" (engines) where that was cheaper than overhauls:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/events-and-p ... ast-events

They will buy used A320s, but not until the cash burn is manageable.

Now, earlier than we know traffic has recovered, Allegiant will buy. With all the differed and returned aircraft, the supply will spike. It will take the sales by other airlines in desperation to get to the opportunistic pricing (my words) Allegiant will wait for.

Liaten to the conference call. They will first scrap 10 to 15 while parking 25 (includes scrapped planes). So no buying for a few months.

They already plan to be back up to prior fleet size in 2021.

Lightsaber


Allegiant will probably part out some of the ex-Cebu Pacific A319's and a few of the oldest ex-Iberia A320's. When Allegiant took the ex-Cebu A319's they had been "flown hard & put away wet", but they were the best deal they could find in a seller's market. The ex-Iberia A320's had been retired from mainline, then flown a few years with their Express division, then retired again. Most of them are past, or pushing the 20-year age mark.

I wonder if they'll try to pick up more high-density A319s from EasyJet. I know the economics of operating A320s makes more sense, but if the price is right, the opportunity is there and I doubt Airbus will make any more of them.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Tue May 19, 2020 12:58 am

IAmGaroott wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
In the future. When traffic grows enough. I also listed to the whole conference call and cane away with the opinion they were buying "motors" (engines) where that was cheaper than overhauls:

http://ir.allegiantair.com/events-and-p ... ast-events

They will buy used A320s, but not until the cash burn is manageable.

Now, earlier than we know traffic has recovered, Allegiant will buy. With all the differed and returned aircraft, the supply will spike. It will take the sales by other airlines in desperation to get to the opportunistic pricing (my words) Allegiant will wait for.

Liaten to the conference call. They will first scrap 10 to 15 while parking 25 (includes scrapped planes). So no buying for a few months.

They already plan to be back up to prior fleet size in 2021.

Lightsaber


Allegiant will probably part out some of the ex-Cebu Pacific A319's and a few of the oldest ex-Iberia A320's. When Allegiant took the ex-Cebu A319's they had been "flown hard & put away wet", but they were the best deal they could find in a seller's market. The ex-Iberia A320's had been retired from mainline, then flown a few years with their Express division, then retired again. Most of them are past, or pushing the 20-year age mark.

I wonder if they'll try to pick up more high-density A319s from EasyJet. I know the economics of operating A320s makes more sense, but if the price is right, the opportunity is there and I doubt Airbus will make any more of them.

I personally think an A319 purchased will be for parts, mostly engines. The used price of A320CEO will be too attractive in 2021.

A319s were already going at scrap rates. My earlier post shows those rates have dropped. G4 will ne brutal.

Lightsaber
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cbphoto
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Allegiant will probably part out some of the ex-Cebu Pacific A319's and a few of the oldest ex-Iberia A320's. When Allegiant took the ex-Cebu A319's they had been "flown hard & put away wet", but they were the best deal they could find in a seller's market. The ex-Iberia A320's had been retired from mainline, then flown a few years with their Express division, then retired again. Most of them are past, or pushing the 20-year age mark.

I wonder if they'll try to pick up more high-density A319s from EasyJet. I know the economics of operating A320s makes more sense, but if the price is right, the opportunity is there and I doubt Airbus will make any more of them.

I personally think an A319 purchased will be for parts, mostly engines. The used price of A320CEO will be too attractive in 2021.

A319s were already going at scrap rates. My earlier post shows those rates have dropped. G4 will ne brutal.

Lightsaber


I think G4 is done with the A319, so Lightsaber is correct in saying that the only 319s that go to Allegiant will likely be for parts. That being said, I know Allegiant is only targeting newer built A320s, one that can be converted to the 186 seat configuration. Part of the reason they are scrapping some the older A320s is because those cannon be converted to the 186 seat configuration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allegiant becoming an all 320 airline in the near future.
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FWAERJ
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 3:06 pm

freakyrat wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
G4 is in a great position right now:

"The majority of people in our surveys have reported that their personal financial situation has stayed the same or gotten better. In the midwest, mid atlantic, upper west, they don't share the same opinion that is being put out on the evening news"

Management says it is making a "cash call" on every single flight and only running it if it is profitable.

Core Midwest origin markets are showing signs of a quick recovery. Also, there is steady growth in the qualified searches on the website since mid-April & searches are beginning to convert to bookings, particularly on the FL west coast beaches.

This is all really good news, G4 can heavily capitalize on PIE, PGD, SRQ, & VPS, a toolbox few other carriers can utilize given most carriers focus their Florida operations in Orlando & South Florida.


G4 ran a SBN-LAS flight today the first one in over 2 months. Maybe that is a good sign.


FWA-LAS resumes in 2 1/2 weeks, too, as Nevada plans to reopen casinos around the same time.

And Disney should be announcing soon how they will reopen Walt Disney World. Rumor is that it will be similar to how Disney reopened Shanghai Disneyland: all app-based advance ticketing (no more gate purchasing), reserve all rides in a day with FastPass+, maximum 30% capacity, and temperature checks at the park gate. The whole theme park industry will be watching Mickey, especially to see if Disney can reopen safely in a state where COVID-19 did a double-dip. But for G4, it’s a reason to expect a boost on SFB flights.

The G4 model is perfect for people that are sick of cabin fever from the past few months - cheap air/hotel vacations to places they want to go. They’ll recover faster than others for this reason.
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freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 1:19 pm

During these uncertain times for air traffic at South Bend while SBN's number 1 carrier Delta has reduced flying to just one DTW flight per day, United to 2 ORD flights per day, the new kid on the block American has kept their 2 daily flights to DFW and occasionally reduced to 1 daily flight to CLT which bodes well for them when flying does return.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 2:56 am

G4 ran another set of Vegas flights from SBN. They seem to also be ramping up flights to SFB.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:30 pm

G4 has taken off since Mid-May, back to 68% of previous levels

Image
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:08 pm

cbphoto wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
I wonder if they'll try to pick up more high-density A319s from EasyJet. I know the economics of operating A320s makes more sense, but if the price is right, the opportunity is there and I doubt Airbus will make any more of them.

I personally think an A319 purchased will be for parts, mostly engines. The used price of A320CEO will be too attractive in 2021.

A319s were already going at scrap rates. My earlier post shows those rates have dropped. G4 will ne brutal.

Lightsaber


I think G4 is done with the A319, so Lightsaber is correct in saying that the only 319s that go to Allegiant will likely be for parts. That being said, I know Allegiant is only targeting newer built A320s, one that can be converted to the 186 seat configuration. Part of the reason they are scrapping some the older A320s is because those cannon be converted to the 186 seat configuration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allegiant becoming an all 320 airline in the near future.

I see them only buying the newer avionics as Allegiant fully embraced predictive maintenance and is benefitting from their software deal with Airbus.

Allegiant doesn't do any think fast or rash. While the cost benefit of flying the A319 per flight vs. the A320 has dropped, it isn't zero. So for planes that are far from pricey maintenance with newer avionics, I see a future. The reason the cost difference dropped is the A319 engines used to go 20,000 cycles between overhauls vs. 16,000 for the A320 and 12,000 for the A321 (I'm going from memory). After Pips, the A321 beats 16,000 cycles and the A320 matches the A319. (Yes, I realize engines undergo partial rebuilds, but the ~$1.6 million per engine for an A320 is spread over 20k instead of 16k cycles. Sharklets and engine PiPs reduced (but did mot eliminate) the fuel burn difference.


I just do not see Grand Junction CO to LAS or many other city pairs ready for the A320, yet. Even 2x/week. Eventually G4 will probably be all 186 seat A320, but that will be a very slow process.

I could see them only buying aircraft with the predictive maintenance and 186 seat capacity. However, "new" is relative. I would quantify it as 5 to 12 year old aircraft as Allegiant still needs a good value. I sincerely doubt the youngest A320CEO will be discounted enough to interest them as values have dropped 15%, not into a seething pit.

But it seems likely Allegiant could be more picky for years to come. In fact, I speculate that A320NEO production is so much more than market demand for the next 3 years that the A320CEO resale price will fall distressingly quick for the next 2.5 to 3 years. So today's 2018 build is too pricey, but not if bought in 2023...

Lightsaber
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:28 pm

More good news, furloughs are off the table for G4, per company communication
Currently at 85% of regular schedule, with some days being higher yoy
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joeblow10
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
cbphoto wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I personally think an A319 purchased will be for parts, mostly engines. The used price of A320CEO will be too attractive in 2021.

A319s were already going at scrap rates. My earlier post shows those rates have dropped. G4 will ne brutal.

Lightsaber


I think G4 is done with the A319, so Lightsaber is correct in saying that the only 319s that go to Allegiant will likely be for parts. That being said, I know Allegiant is only targeting newer built A320s, one that can be converted to the 186 seat configuration. Part of the reason they are scrapping some the older A320s is because those cannon be converted to the 186 seat configuration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allegiant becoming an all 320 airline in the near future.

I see them only buying the newer avionics as Allegiant fully embraced predictive maintenance and is benefitting from their software deal with Airbus.

Allegiant doesn't do any think fast or rash. While the cost benefit of flying the A319 per flight vs. the A320 has dropped, it isn't zero. So for planes that are far from pricey maintenance with newer avionics, I see a future. The reason the cost difference dropped is the A319 engines used to go 20,000 cycles between overhauls vs. 16,000 for the A320 and 12,000 for the A321 (I'm going from memory). After Pips, the A321 beats 16,000 cycles and the A320 matches the A319. (Yes, I realize engines undergo partial rebuilds, but the ~$1.6 million per engine for an A320 is spread over 20k instead of 16k cycles. Sharklets and engine PiPs reduced (but did mot eliminate) the fuel burn difference.


I just do not see Grand Junction CO to LAS or many other city pairs ready for the A320, yet. Even 2x/week. Eventually G4 will probably be all 186 seat A320, but that will be a very slow process.

I could see them only buying aircraft with the predictive maintenance and 186 seat capacity. However, "new" is relative. I would quantify it as 5 to 12 year old aircraft as Allegiant still needs a good value. I sincerely doubt the youngest A320CEO will be discounted enough to interest them as values have dropped 15%, not into a seething pit.

But it seems likely Allegiant could be more picky for years to come. In fact, I speculate that A320NEO production is so much more than market demand for the next 3 years that the A320CEO resale price will fall distressingly quick for the next 2.5 to 3 years. So today's 2018 build is too pricey, but not if bought in 2023...

Lightsaber


But what truly is the cost increase of flying a 320 instead of a 319? 30 more seats to sell, so maybe they don’t get sold, but is the CASM any higher? Isn’t it even lower on a 320?

If the cost isn’t materially higher, makes sense to just transition to all 320s.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:19 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
More good news, furloughs are off the table for G4, per company communication
Currently at 85% of regular schedule, with some days being higher yoy


Interesting.

Is that 85% of the schedule that had been planned for this period, or 85% of last year?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:34 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
More good news, furloughs are off the table for G4, per company communication
Currently at 85% of regular schedule, with some days being higher yoy


Interesting.

Is that 85% of the schedule that had been planned for this period, or 85% of last year?


Last year I believe
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cbphoto
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Re: Allegiant Looking To Purchase More Used A320's

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
cbphoto wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I personally think an A319 purchased will be for parts, mostly engines. The used price of A320CEO will be too attractive in 2021.

A319s were already going at scrap rates. My earlier post shows those rates have dropped. G4 will ne brutal.

Lightsaber


I think G4 is done with the A319, so Lightsaber is correct in saying that the only 319s that go to Allegiant will likely be for parts. That being said, I know Allegiant is only targeting newer built A320s, one that can be converted to the 186 seat configuration. Part of the reason they are scrapping some the older A320s is because those cannon be converted to the 186 seat configuration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allegiant becoming an all 320 airline in the near future.

I see them only buying the newer avionics as Allegiant fully embraced predictive maintenance and is benefitting from their software deal with Airbus.

Allegiant doesn't do any think fast or rash. While the cost benefit of flying the A319 per flight vs. the A320 has dropped, it isn't zero. So for planes that are far from pricey maintenance with newer avionics, I see a future. The reason the cost difference dropped is the A319 engines used to go 20,000 cycles between overhauls vs. 16,000 for the A320 and 12,000 for the A321 (I'm going from memory). After Pips, the A321 beats 16,000 cycles and the A320 matches the A319. (Yes, I realize engines undergo partial rebuilds, but the ~$1.6 million per engine for an A320 is spread over 20k instead of 16k cycles. Sharklets and engine PiPs reduced (but did mot eliminate) the fuel burn difference.


I just do not see Grand Junction CO to LAS or many other city pairs ready for the A320, yet. Even 2x/week. Eventually G4 will probably be all 186 seat A320, but that will be a very slow process.

I could see them only buying aircraft with the predictive maintenance and 186 seat capacity. However, "new" is relative. I would quantify it as 5 to 12 year old aircraft as Allegiant still needs a good value. I sincerely doubt the youngest A320CEO will be discounted enough to interest them as values have dropped 15%, not into a seething pit.

But it seems likely Allegiant could be more picky for years to come. In fact, I speculate that A320NEO production is so much more than market demand for the next 3 years that the A320CEO resale price will fall distressingly quick for the next 2.5 to 3 years. So today's 2018 build is too pricey, but not if bought in 2023...

Lightsaber


I know for a fact that Pre Covid 19, the A319s were firmly on the chopping block to be retired. While things might have changed some, I believe they will still be drawn down rather quickly. The 319s offer a number of logistical challenges in the day to day operations of the airline. Often times the only operational spare in base is an A319, and if a 320 goes tech, especially a 186 seat 320, that’s a lots of passengers that need to be rebooked, and often times that’s days later with Allegiant’s flight schedule. In order to smooth out the daily operations and IROPS, I think Allegiant sees the benefit to being an all 186 seat, A320 operator. I can see them flying 3/4 full flights to the places that might not warrant them, rather then keeping a small sub fleet of 319s
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:21 pm

Allegiant update from today:
Keep in mind that Allegiant has been quicker at adding back capacity than anyone else. Apparently up to 85% pre-COVID capacity recently.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alleg ... 2020-06-09

Anyhow, items of updates
- cut capacity by 53% for May
- Carried 71% fewer passengers. So 47% capacity and 29% passengers. LF 62% of what it was before approximately.
- $2 million gross booking per day (this is pretty huge considering G4 size)
- This is $1.25 million more than estimates from earnings call when they did the cash burn estimates.
- Cash burn is only down $350k per day for the quarter since variable costs increased
- Still expecting to burn $1 million/day in Q3 based on $2 million daily revenue.

Keep in mind, their Q4 revenue was around $5 million a day. So they are saying if they do let's say around 85% of pre-COVID flying with 40% of pre-COVID revenue, they are still expecting to run about 33% negative margins. Keep in mind, G4 had the best margin of any airline.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Allegiant update from today:
Keep in mind that Allegiant has been quicker at adding back capacity than anyone else. Apparently up to 85% pre-COVID capacity recently.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alleg ... 2020-06-09

Anyhow, items of updates
- cut capacity by 53% for May
- Carried 71% fewer passengers. So 47% capacity and 29% passengers. LF 62% of what it was before approximately.
- $2 million gross booking per day (this is pretty huge considering G4 size)
- This is $1.25 million more than estimates from earnings call when they did the cash burn estimates.
- Cash burn is only down $350k per day for the quarter since variable costs increased
- Still expecting to burn $1 million/day in Q3 based on $2 million daily revenue.

Keep in mind, their Q4 revenue was around $5 million a day. So they are saying if they do let's say around 85% of pre-COVID flying with 40% of pre-COVID revenue, they are still expecting to run about 33% negative margins. Keep in mind, G4 had the best margin of any airline.


Is G4 keeping middle seats open unless from a single household?

The bookings are impressive.

Mostly I quoted as the reduced load factor indicates spacing which leads into the following discussion:





cbphoto wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
cbphoto wrote:

I think G4 is done with the A319, so Lightsaber is correct in saying that the only 319s that go to Allegiant will likely be for parts. That being said, I know Allegiant is only targeting newer built A320s, one that can be converted to the 186 seat configuration. Part of the reason they are scrapping some the older A320s is because those cannon be converted to the 186 seat configuration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allegiant becoming an all 320 airline in the near future.

I see them only buying the newer avionics as Allegiant fully embraced predictive maintenance and is benefitting from their software deal with Airbus.

Allegiant doesn't do any think fast or rash. While the cost benefit of flying the A319 per flight vs. the A320 has dropped, it isn't zero. So for planes that are far from pricey maintenance with newer avionics, I see a future. The reason the cost difference dropped is the A319 engines used to go 20,000 cycles between overhauls vs. 16,000 for the A320 and 12,000 for the A321 (I'm going from memory). After Pips, the A321 beats 16,000 cycles and the A320 matches the A319. (Yes, I realize engines undergo partial rebuilds, but the ~$1.6 million per engine for an A320 is spread over 20k instead of 16k cycles. Sharklets and engine PiPs reduced (but did mot eliminate) the fuel burn difference.


I just do not see Grand Junction CO to LAS or many other city pairs ready for the A320, yet. Even 2x/week. Eventually G4 will probably be all 186 seat A320, but that will be a very slow process.

I could see them only buying aircraft with the predictive maintenance and 186 seat capacity. However, "new" is relative. I would quantify it as 5 to 12 year old aircraft as Allegiant still needs a good value. I sincerely doubt the youngest A320CEO will be discounted enough to interest them as values have dropped 15%, not into a seething pit.

But it seems likely Allegiant could be more picky for years to come. In fact, I speculate that A320NEO production is so much more than market demand for the next 3 years that the A320CEO resale price will fall distressingly quick for the next 2.5 to 3 years. So today's 2018 build is too pricey, but not if bought in 2023...

Lightsaber


I know for a fact that Pre Covid 19, the A319s were firmly on the chopping block to be retired. While things might have changed some, I believe they will still be drawn down rather quickly. The 319s offer a number of logistical challenges in the day to day operations of the airline. Often times the only operational spare in base is an A319, and if a 320 goes tech, especially a 186 seat 320, that’s a lots of passengers that need to be rebooked, and often times that’s days later with Allegiant’s flight schedule. In order to smooth out the daily operations and IROPS, I think Allegiant sees the benefit to being an all 186 seat, A320 operator. I can see them flying 3/4 full flights to the places that might not warrant them, rather then keeping a small sub fleet of 319s

The idea of standardizing on a 186 seat fleet is long term wise. As I read the above quoted post, I realized, excluding selling 3 seats to one household, customers want space. So that makes 'filing' a 186 aircraft easy when you can only fill 124 seats + families filling a row.

If the A319s have green time and that time isn't more valuable as engines (and other parts) for 186 seat A320s, the probably will fly until the next HMV. A319s are only worth scrap and scrap value is declining rapidly.

As I posted before, A319s bought will be now for engines and other parts (but mostly engines)

I agree with only newer (186 seat) A320CEO purchases now.

This rapid return is facinating. Allegiant has an odd strategy, less than daily, leisure focused. As people go out, they are well positioned.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
I wonder when G4 will purchase more aircraft? Pricing isn't the best yet and I believe G4 must cash flow +ve prior to buying.

This spike makes me glad I pre-reserved rental cars in July and August.
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freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
G4 has taken off since Mid-May, back to 68% of previous levels

Image



Allegiant is back at preCovid flights at SBN.
 
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:10 am

I wonder if G4 has kicked the tires on A321's? That would be an interesting aircraft to add to it's fleet down the road.
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:12 pm

http://ir.allegiantair.com/static-files ... 26dd129677

"Our economic justification for flying flights was based on the flight contributing positively to our cash balances, namely covering the direct expenses of fuel and airport costs"

"In the coming months we expect to continue to lead the industry in percentage of schedule offered and flown. We also expect to lead the industry in improving daily cash burn."

"During the second quarter, we forecasted our cash burn would be approximately $2 million per day including debt service if gross bookings remained at $750k per day. May’s total was less than a $500,000 per day deficit including debt service of $11.5 million, a substantial beat. If one looks just at operations cash flow, sales for the month less direct operating expenses, payroll and accounts payable payments, we had a positive cash flow of just over $2 million for May. Given these results, we are cautiously optimistic about the pace of the recovery and our ability to move back to a ‘normal’ operation."
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/static-files/4863c7ea-44ab-4be7-be18-6b26dd129677

"Our economic justification for flying flights was based on the flight contributing positively to our cash balances, namely covering the direct expenses of fuel and airport costs"

"In the coming months we expect to continue to lead the industry in percentage of schedule offered and flown. We also expect to lead the industry in improving daily cash burn."

"During the second quarter, we forecasted our cash burn would be approximately $2 million per day including debt service if gross bookings remained at $750k per day. May’s total was less than a $500,000 per day deficit including debt service of $11.5 million, a substantial beat. If one looks just at operations cash flow, sales for the month less direct operating expenses, payroll and accounts payable payments, we had a positive cash flow of just over $2 million for May. Given these results, we are cautiously optimistic about the pace of the recovery and our ability to move back to a ‘normal’ operation."

I realize that is a very caviated and conditional statement, however even a tiny cash flow positive is great (albeit with a loss after say depreciation or yet unspent maintenance reserves).

Allegiant's strategy requires really understanding these costs. Because of how much they depend on ancillary sales, I believe they have more insight than most airlines into route performance.

I follow this coronavirus almost obsessively. While there are rising waves in Allegiant markets, I am seeing signs of... poorly behaving metropolitan areas having reach pseudo herd immunity (disease still spreading, but at a long term manageable rate, but only for badly hit regions).

Despite, or perhaps because if, my previous posting on the risks, I think we have a path forward. However, be careful. I predict peak us Covid19 in August...

Lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:29 pm

F9Animal wrote:
I wonder if G4 has kicked the tires on A321's? That would be an interesting aircraft to add to it's fleet down the road.

I think the A321 would definitely be a good aircraft for G4. Along those lines I know one of the main reasons that Hawaii didn’t work the first time was because of the 757’s they were using was not economically viable. Now that G4 is using the A320 family, I wonder if that could change things and open the door for Hawaii again. The cities they linked Hawaii up with the first time were odd as well which I think contributed to other issues. I think adding Hawaii service to and from LAX, BLI, FAT, AZA, PVU, BOI, LAS, and RDM would be perfect.

I know Breeze founder David Neeleman mentioned that they are looking at Hawaii and specifically mentioned as an example PVU-OGG as one of the hundreds of potential routes they could add in their network. G4 should get ahead of the game when it comes to linking up secondary airports and markets with Hawaii. They are the perfect airline to do it. I think it would be smart and a great opportunity for G4 to add Hawaii service once everything calms down, maybe within the next couple years.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:48 pm

A320 N295NV is en route from VQQ to BQN for further induction work.
 
flyboy7974
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:02 am

Pre Covid, I always thought RNO could be a perfect market / model for Allegiant.

Less than daily frequency, 2X-3X a week from midsize markets around the country, all within range of the Airbus, hotel packages with Reno or Tahoe add ons.
 
deltadudejg
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:23 am

Here at PIE, while I have the numbers but not on hand we’re at about 65-75% back to where we were Pre-Covid. Interestingly enough too, G4 transitioned more 186 seat A320s (mostly Sharklet) aircraft to the base. The plan was to have somewhere around 10 for summer prior to COVID. Still holding around 12 based aircraft, 2 A319s, 1 or 2 177 seat A320s and the rest sharklet A320. Apologize if the seat numbers are slight off.
Aviation Enthusiast working in Airport Operations
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:29 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
I wonder if G4 has kicked the tires on A321's? That would be an interesting aircraft to add to it's fleet down the road.

I think the A321 would definitely be a good aircraft for G4. Along those lines I know one of the main reasons that Hawaii didn’t work the first time was because of the 757’s they were using was not economically viable. Now that G4 is using the A320 family, I wonder if that could change things and open the door for Hawaii again. The cities they linked Hawaii up with the first time were odd as well which I think contributed to other issues. I think adding Hawaii service to and from LAX, BLI, FAT, AZA, PVU, BOI, LAS, and RDM would be perfect.

I know Breeze founder David Neeleman mentioned that they are looking at Hawaii and specifically mentioned as an example PVU-OGG as one of the hundreds of potential routes they could add in their network. G4 should get ahead of the game when it comes to linking up secondary airports and markets with Hawaii. They are the perfect airline to do it. I think it would be smart and a great opportunity for G4 to add Hawaii service once everything calms down, maybe within the next couple years.

An airline needs the A321NEO for transit to/from Hawaii. In particular at G4 densities.

Breeze is going to utilize the longer range (than A321CEO) A220-300. PVU-OGG is at the extreme range of a 2-class A223 and outside of as 2-class A321CEO (much less a G4 configuration).

I predict that G4 buys newer A320CEOs, the ones ready for 186 seats. I'm waiting for the updated Aircraft lease and values thread, but a circa 2009 A320 is 14% cheaper to buy, 25% cheaper to lease.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/10/hotr- ... more-33677

The 5 year old A320CEO also seems to have lost 14% of value while the A321CEO only lost 9%.

As much as G4 profits off ancillary revenue, I do not think the A321s are a fit, yet.

With all the returned leases coming, the time to buy isn't here. It will be soon.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:39 am

G4 has taken delivery of A320 N284NV, former Cebu Pacific RP-C3237, on 7/16/20 at LCQ.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:01 pm

A320 N238NV is en route from BQN to PIE to enter active service.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:52 pm

jgcotter wrote:
G4 has taken delivery of A320 N284NV, former Cebu Pacific RP-C3237, on 7/16/20 at LCQ.

How many aircraft does Allegiant have under contract to accept?

I believe they will be one of the first buyers, but after the returned Aircraft are marketed for a bit. As the quarterly report noted, it has gone from a sellers market to a biyers market.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:49 pm

Right now I’m showing 6 x A320; 278NV, 284NV, 292NV, 293NV, 294NV and 295NV under contract for acceptance this year.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:39 am

jgcotter,
Thank you. That means G4 cannot be in the market for a bit due to prior commitments.

I have no doubt they wish they could renegotiate those prior orders.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:47 am

Midwestindy wrote:
More good news, furloughs are off the table for G4, per company communication
Currently at 85% of regular schedule, with some days being higher yoy


Flying the full schedule out of SBN. Seasonal SRQ returns Nov 20th.
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:12 pm

Does anyone have an update on the announced aircraft retirements? Is it safe to say the aircraft still in storage will not return?
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:15 pm

It appears that Allegiant updated their September schedule today. Many frequency reductions I have noticed. For example, AVL-FLL down to 4 times weekly service which is a far cry from the up to 3 times daily service the route had a year ago. Several routes being temporarily suspended. For anyone that is not aware, Allegiant had extended their schedule to mid November pre covid. So like many other airlines, they have been updating it a month at a time for the current covid demand.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:02 pm

My flight in September Knoxville to Sarasota was cancelled today. So I looked at their website and September is cleared but back in October, or October hasn’t been touched yet?
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E7/95 (PA28,152)
 
kiowa
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:10 pm

There are some very interesting routes there. I still will not fly out of Midway but it’s nice to see there’s options now instead of being forced to fly on Southwest.
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:46 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
My flight in September Knoxville to Sarasota was cancelled today. So I looked at their website and September is cleared but back in October, or October hasn’t been touched yet?

October has not been touched yet. Are you going to drive to PIE to fly up here? We were thinking of flying down as a family to SRQ in September on G4 but obviously we will have to scratch that now.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:01 am

TYSflyer wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
My flight in September Knoxville to Sarasota was cancelled today. So I looked at their website and September is cleared but back in October, or October hasn’t been touched yet?

October has not been touched yet. Are you going to drive to PIE to fly up here? We were thinking of flying down as a family to SRQ in September on G4 but obviously we will have to scratch that now.



A small group of us is driving to Gatlinburg, plan is for me to fly back and they will drive back few days later. I just booked a Delta flight with part of my voucher, nice thing now they have a text option to book your ticket, only took few minutes. But now I’ll have another voucher now with Allegiant haha
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E7/95 (PA28,152)
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:05 am

So how much is Allegiant cutting at SRQ I see CLE is cut too.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E7/95 (PA28,152)
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:25 am

https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releas ... al-results

Wow.....

"June bookings were a significant contributor to this reduction, with several days in June exceeding prior year booking levels. In fact, June bookings resulted in cash breakeven for the month of June."

"During the second quarter, Allegiant passengers accounted for more than five percent of all TSA screenings conducted."

"2Q20 daily cash burn averaged $900 thousand per day
Gross bookings averaged more than $2.5 million per day during the quarter
3Q20 daily cash burn is expected to be slightly above $1 million assuming gross bookings average roughly $2 million per day"
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:32 am

Midwestindy wrote:
https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-second-quarter-2020-financial-results

Wow.....

"June bookings were a significant contributor to this reduction, with several days in June exceeding prior year booking levels. In fact, June bookings resulted in cash breakeven for the month of June."

"During the second quarter, Allegiant passengers accounted for more than five percent of all TSA screenings conducted."

"2Q20 daily cash burn averaged $900 thousand per day
Gross bookings averaged more than $2.5 million per day during the quarter
3Q20 daily cash burn is expected to be slightly above $1 million assuming gross bookings average roughly $2 million per day"



Flying to Florida is where it's at and adding Destin was effing brilliant for places like XNA. And... this is without folks flying down for cruises.
 
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:32 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-second-quarter-2020-financial-results

Wow.....

"June bookings were a significant contributor to this reduction, with several days in June exceeding prior year booking levels. In fact, June bookings resulted in cash breakeven for the month of June."

"During the second quarter, Allegiant passengers accounted for more than five percent of all TSA screenings conducted."

"2Q20 daily cash burn averaged $900 thousand per day
Gross bookings averaged more than $2.5 million per day during the quarter
3Q20 daily cash burn is expected to be slightly above $1 million assuming gross bookings average roughly $2 million per day"



Flying to Florida is where it's at and adding Destin was effing brilliant for places like XNA. And... this is without folks flying down for cruises.

Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://ir.allegiantair.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allegiant-travel-company-second-quarter-2020-financial-results

Wow.....

"June bookings were a significant contributor to this reduction, with several days in June exceeding prior year booking levels. In fact, June bookings resulted in cash breakeven for the month of June."

"During the second quarter, Allegiant passengers accounted for more than five percent of all TSA screenings conducted."

"2Q20 daily cash burn averaged $900 thousand per day
Gross bookings averaged more than $2.5 million per day during the quarter
3Q20 daily cash burn is expected to be slightly above $1 million assuming gross bookings average roughly $2 million per day"



Flying to Florida is where it's at and adding Destin was effing brilliant for places like XNA. And... this is without folks flying down for cruises.

Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber


Not a day goes by where there's not someone I know posting pics of them on a beach in Florida. Florida also just recorded the smallest daily positive case number since June. We damn near chose to fly into Billings for Yellowstone but chose to drive but not because of Covid, but her wanting to stay at Leid Lodge on the way.
 
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber


Do you have an idea as to how much cruise passenger business G4 was doing pre-pandemic? I always thought that with their less-than-daily schedules they didn't necessarily attract many cruise passengers. I could be wrong.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:12 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Not a day goes by where there's not someone I know posting pics of them on a beach in Florida. Florida also just recorded the smallest daily positive case number since June. We damn near chose to fly into Billings for Yellowstone but chose to drive but not because of Covid, but her wanting to stay at Leid Lodge on the way.


Let’s not forget that testing in south Florida, the epicenter of Florida’s cases, was shut off Friday-Sunday for Hurricane Isaias. Likely had something to do with the smaller number of positive cases, unfortunately.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:35 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:


Flying to Florida is where it's at and adding Destin was effing brilliant for places like XNA. And... this is without folks flying down for cruises.

Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber


Not a day goes by where there's not someone I know posting pics of them on a beach in Florida. Florida also just recorded the smallest daily positive case number since June. We damn near chose to fly into Billings for Yellowstone but chose to drive but not because of Covid, but her wanting to stay at Leid Lodge on the way.


In the Miami / Ft. Lauderdale area, it’s taking 2-3 weeks to get COVID test results.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:24 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber


Not a day goes by where there's not someone I know posting pics of them on a beach in Florida. Florida also just recorded the smallest daily positive case number since June. We damn near chose to fly into Billings for Yellowstone but chose to drive but not because of Covid, but her wanting to stay at Leid Lodge on the way.


In the Miami / Ft. Lauderdale area, it’s taking 2-3 weeks to get COVID test results.


There’s a walk up testing site across the street from me in Miami Beach, I went last week and had my results in 4 days.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:31 am

Flflyer83 wrote:

In the Miami / Ft. Lauderdale area, it’s taking 2-3 weeks to get COVID test results.


Yeah, that is definitely true. Results have been lagging which is definitely not helping the spread when you don't find out until you've already been contagious for over a week.
I will say I got tested last week in Dade County and I had positive results the next morning. Granted that was an antibody test, and not a swab test. It was still much quicker than I anticipated.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:35 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, for Allegiant and others, the cruise industry will have to markedly shrink.

But I have no doubt Allegiant will recover.

Lightsaber


Do you have an idea as to how much cruise passenger business G4 was doing pre-pandemic? I always thought that with their less-than-daily schedules they didn't necessarily attract many cruise passengers. I could be wrong.

I was under the impression they scheduled their less than daily service as demand, which would be enhanced by a cruise.

I don't know how many passengers. In reality, I'm using a cruise ship as a placeholder for so many closed activities.

But I found offers on Allegiant travel for flights and a cruise.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
jplatts
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:57 pm

There are still some more nonstop routes that could be added by G4 out of FLL to destinations such as ABQ, DSM, GSO, OKC, OMA, ROC, SAV, and TUL that currently lack nonstop LCC service to the MIA/FLL market once demand for domestic leisure traffic returns.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:05 am

Does Allegiant offer ski/winter vacation packages to places such as MTJ, PVU, RNO, DEN, or GJT?

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