Well, good evening everyone, blian nua shona dhaoibh go leir (happy new year everyone!) ... hope 2020 brings you everything you wish for - aeronautically related or not!

It's been a good year for Irish aviation - and let's not forget, as we move into the roaring twenties, a good decade as well. Ten years ago, we were still pretty mired in recession and Irish aviation seems to have come out of it strongly, with record growth and most important of all, an excellent safety record. With the growth we've seen, ten years without a fatal accident, or even a serious incident, is a pretty good record to look back on; long may it continue!

I won't even begin to guess what 2030 might look like, though I suspect that environmental issues may well dent the growth of aviation over the coming years, unless we can develop new means of propulsion that are more environmentally friendly. I hope that the opening of the new runway at DUB will see several more long haul destinations offered, particularly to Asia (does anyone see CX coming back this summer?) and that DUB will invest in the infrastructure to accommodate that growth. Likewise, I hope SNN, ORK and other Irish airports continue to see growth and develop new markets.

To you all, whether regular contributors or not, I wish you a very happy, prosperous and healthy new year and as the saying goes, Go mbeirimid anseo ag an am seo aris (May we be here at the same time again).

Happy flying!

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1435987&start=150#unread

BrianDromey wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

I was looking at ORK network and i am surprised that there are no connections to Belfast and Derry..I have friends living in Cork who wanted to travel to Belfast and it took them over 6h to get there by bus/train..How come S.Ireland remains unconnected to the Northern part?That also seems to be the case for SNN..I am also surprised that these two cities have turboprop flights and no jet ones by EI to the big UK destinations outside LON..i.e MAN,EDI,GLA,BHX..Stunned also that NCL is left out of the equation

AerArann, Bmibaby and Jet2 all operated ORK-Belfast at various points, but these services were terminated around 2011, shortly after the start of Aer Lingus Regional. Around 2006 AerArann operated Cork-Galway too. I agree that the rail connections aren't great between Cork and Belfast, but there just isn't very much demand between the two cities, they have little in common in terms of cultural or economic links.Newcastle has been a long-established service at Cork, again operated by Bmibaby, Jet2 and Aer Lingus Regional over the years, at low-frequency. Its has only recently been discontinued.

Although there is good trade and cultural links between Cork and many large UK citifies the A320 is simply too large to offer an attractive service twice daily. In truth the arts are probably a little small, but EI wont mind the inflated yields. The only jet service from Cork outside London is the FR service to LPL, which they cant even sustain a daily flight in the summer. Fares are often ~20EUR mark outside peak periods.

Wasn't it JetMagic who brought this route at good frequency with Embraer and then Aer Arann got in once JetMagic folded. I don't think Jet2 actually ever flew the route after taking it from sale before launch. I never remember bmibaby doing Cork Belfast??

Flybe did BHD-GWY around 2008/9 for a time, which was a great link, but didn't last long...

kaitak wrote:

I hope that the opening of the new runway at DUB will see several more long haul destinations offered, particularly to Asia (does anyone see CX coming back this summer?) and that DUB will invest in the infrastructure to accommodate that growth. Likewise, I hope SNN, ORK and other Irish airports continue to see growth and develop new markets.

CX only have 3 seasonal destinations with Dublin being the only European one. I’d say eventually they will reinstate the year round operation as the route performed well last year. It would be nice to see an increase in frequency although I suppose we should be great full for the route at all!

Happy New Year to all!

Recent review of Aer Lingus' A321LR between Dublin and Philadelphia;

https://thepointsguy.com/reviews/aer-li ... tid=More-3

Reasonably detailed and plenty of great photos to enjoy.

Immigration crackdown sees rise in foreign nationals turned back at Dublin Airport
Fewer Albanians, Georgians apply for asylum as impact of Garda operation felt
The drop in the number of Albanians and Georgians applying for international protection in October is part of a concerted drive to discourage people from those countries claiming asylum in the Republic.
More people from these countries are now being stopped and turned back at Dublin Airport and, as a result, the first decreases in the number of Albanians and Georgians applying for international protection in the Republic has been recorded.
Airlines have also been made aware by gardaí that they will be forced to find room on return flights for any foreign nationals they bring to Ireland who are found not to have the correct travel documents when they arrive in Dublin.

www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/i ... -1.4127464

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Massive Dublin Airport to Toronto, Canada Summer flight sale launched for New Year

If you're looking to head across the pond this year, a massive sale has just been launched between Dublin and Canada.

Canadian airline Air Transat has revealed the special sale return fares for the summer season (May – October 2020) from Dublin to Toronto from €318.

www.dublinlive.ie/lifestyle/travel/mass ... a-17496363

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Dublin Airport must pay compensation to deaf passenger who missed flight
Workplace Relations Commission: Airport ‘chaotic’ on day flight missed due to Storm Ali
The daa, formerly Dublin Airport Authority, has been ordered to pay €1,000 in compensation for discriminating against a deaf man who missed a flight at Dublin airport during Storm Ali.

Micheál Kelliher told the Workplace Relations Commission (WRC) he was waiting at the airport to board a flight to Toulouse on September 19th last year.

www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/ ... -1.4127489

While I would like to see CX return to Dublin, the continuing difficulties at their home base cannot help a route resumption.

Safe travel in 2020.

IrishLessor wrote:

Wasn't it JetMagic who brought this route at good frequency with Embraer and then Aer Arann got in once JetMagic folded. I don't think Jet2 actually ever flew the route after taking it from sale before launch. I never remember bmibaby doing Cork Belfast??

Flybe did BHD-GWY around 2008/9 for a time, which was a great link, but didn't last long...

That sounds right actually. I’d forgotten about jet magic, who were the first to really try European routes from Cork, which infuriated Aer Lingus and lead to a 737 being based at Cork, at the time there was an A321 for Heathrow.

bmi baby must have had a Corkonian in the route planning department. They flew all sorts of routes from Cork, Cardiff, Birmingham, Gatwick, Edinburgh (might have been GLA), EMA, CWL and Belfast! They seemed to fly from every UK base to Cork over the years. I flew with them a lot to MAN, mainly on the 737-500s which were long in the tooth by the end, but part of me loved seeing which “TOY” would show up - they always had an interesting history.

I agree Brian, and I remember EI and bmibaby competing on ORK MAN, lets just say plenty of empty seats on the 320!

kaitak wrote:

It's been a good year for Irish aviation - and let's not forget, as we move into the roaring twenties, a good decade as well. Ten years ago, we were still pretty mired in recession and Irish aviation seems to have come out of it strongly, with record growth and most important of all, an excellent safety record. With the growth we've seen, ten years without a fatal accident, or even a serious incident, is a pretty good record to look back on; long may it continue!

Not necessarily, we mustn't forget the tragic loss of Manx2 flight NM7100 at ORK in 2011 (6 fatalities). Aside from that though, thankfully it was a good decade from a commercial aviation safety perspective.

Happy New Year to all.

AmricanShamrok wrote:

kaitak wrote:

It's been a good year for Irish aviation - and let's not forget, as we move into the roaring twenties, a good decade as well. Ten years ago, we were still pretty mired in recession and Irish aviation seems to have come out of it strongly, with record growth and most important of all, an excellent safety record. With the growth we've seen, ten years without a fatal accident, or even a serious incident, is a pretty good record to look back on; long may it continue!

Not necessarily, we mustn't forget the tragic loss of Manx2 flight NM7100 at ORK in 2011 (6 fatalities). Aside from that though, thankfully it was a good decade from a commercial aviation safety perspective.

Happy New Year to all.

Sorry! I thought that was in the previous decade; yes, very important to remember. Let's hope the good record continues this decade anyway.

Hopefully we'll see some movement as well on EI's short haul fleet!

Hypothetical question - how many long haul routes do you think EI would launch before they launched one outside US/Canada? I reckon the next 10-12 long haul routes would all be there.

Next question - where would the first non Us/Canada route be. I reckon JNB.

I don't see it happening. EI has (as Ireland itself has) a natural axis , between Europe/UK and US/Canada. SA is well covered by BA and Asia/ME by countless other airlines. The history of aviation is littered with airlines that either didn't have a properly worked out strategy or got distracted - corporate mission creep.

EI's future depends on this not happening & focus on what is continually showing to be a good strategy. There's a lot more in N America for EI to develop before it even thinks of looking elsewhere .

kaitak wrote:

I don't see it happening. EI has (as Ireland itself has) a natural axis , between Europe/UK and US/Canada. SA is well covered by BA and Asia/ME by countless other airlines. The history of aviation is littered with airlines that either didn't have a properly worked out strategy or got distracted - corporate mission creep.

EI's future depends on this not happening & focus on what is continually showing to be a good strategy. There's a lot more in N America for EI to develop before it even thinks of looking elsewhere .

So you think EI will launch only US/Canada routes in future?

I think so; they tried DXB, which wasnt a great success - for a variety of reasons; they were thinking of launching CPT a few years back, but now, they have such massive potential and they have the feed to support t/a growth (which they wouldn't have if they were looking east or south). There is so much potential to grow DUB as a t/a hub that it really doesn't make good business sense to do anything else.

If you look at it from an asset use point of view, let's just take the new A330s which are to join EI next summer. As a company owned by IAG, you have to account for use of that $200m new asset. What are you going to tell IAG: (a) we have the feed to make this particular route, which we started with a 757, but can now sustain a 330; we've proven it can work and that's demonstrated by the fact that future numbers and the feed we're getting from the UK and Europe now justifies a 330, OR ... (b) CPT/JNB/DEL/DXB (pick one) look interesting; we have no feed, competition is intense and yields will be lousy, but let's give it a lash and see what happens.

Which do you want to say to your principal shareholder?!

The only thing which could change the outlook would be flows from the US to Asia, South Africa and potentially Asia. Especially if CX continue Dublin and EI were to rejoin oneworld. That’s not huge traffic, or especially great yield, but might supplement O&D on routes to India.

kaitak wrote:

I think so; they tried DXB, which wasnt a great success - for a variety of reasons; they were thinking of launching CPT a few years back, but now, they have such massive potential and they have the feed to support t/a growth (which they wouldn't have if they were looking east or south). There is so much potential to grow DUB as a t/a hub that it really doesn't make good business sense to do anything else.

If you look at it from an asset use point of view, let's just take the new A330s which are to join EI next summer. As a company owned by IAG, you have to account for use of that $200m new asset. What are you going to tell IAG: (a) we have the feed to make this particular route, which we started with a 757, but can now sustain a 330; we've proven it can work and that's demonstrated by the fact that future numbers and the feed we're getting from the UK and Europe now justifies a 330, OR ... (b) CPT/JNB/DEL/DXB (pick one) look interesting; we have no feed, competition is intense and yields will be lousy, but let's give it a lash and see what happens.

Which do you want to say to your principal shareholder?!

My own opinion is that EI could look at allocating an aircraft / a rotation to a seasonal route. Nov-March to CPT and April -Oct to LAS. Both highly seasonal and yes leisure destinations but the current ex DUB fares to each for the relevant seasons are in excess of €2200 in J, more so for CPT which is more than they’re making on an ORD run for example

As someone from Ireland living in SA, there is definitely room for a Winter CPT imo. Demand into CPT has grown a lot the past few years and there is a solid flow of Saffers packing up home and business and shipping off to Ireland right now. Travel times via the Middle East are much longer and BA/LH/KL etc. are not cheap from my experience! ET used to be a great one stop option when they did LAX, and always had a lots of transfers to CPT. I guess you could argue if the traffic was so good, they would make DUB-ADD direct, but nevertheless EI could make a go of it. There would also be decent UK traffic (ex. MAN/BHX etc.) which EI could connect via DUB. Even a small bit of feed from the US is possible! CPT has never been more popular!

kaitak wrote:

I don't see it happening. EI has (as Ireland itself has) a natural axis , between Europe/UK and US/Canada. SA is well covered by BA and Asia/ME by countless other airlines. The history of aviation is littered with airlines that either didn't have a properly worked out strategy or got distracted - corporate mission creep.

EI's future depends on this not happening & focus on what is continually showing to be a good strategy. There's a lot more in N America for EI to develop before it even thinks of looking elsewhere .

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. British Midland being a prime example, stick to your core and proven market, develop and improve it where you can. Don't expand over and above what you know too quickly because that could be the ultimate downfall.

BDKLEZ wrote:

kaitak wrote:

I don't see it happening. EI has (as Ireland itself has) a natural axis , between Europe/UK and US/Canada. SA is well covered by BA and Asia/ME by countless other airlines. The history of aviation is littered with airlines that either didn't have a properly worked out strategy or got distracted - corporate mission creep.

EI's future depends on this not happening & focus on what is continually showing to be a good strategy. There's a lot more in N America for EI to develop before it even thinks of looking elsewhere .

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. British Midland being a prime example, stick to your core and proven market, develop and improve it where you can. Don't expand over and above what you know too quickly because that could be the ultimate downfall.

Pretty much . EI have concentrated on TATL for a reason because it works. Best leave CPT to carriers that can make it work. Unless there are figures that suggest there is huge demand for USA/Canada-DUBHUB- CPT. Ex DUB would not fill a A330.

Iberia cancelled their MAD-JNB in September last year because they couldn’t make it work, and that’s with significant potential for feed on both ends with BA/Comair in SA and their own European network not to mention their geographical advantage being one of the southern-most European hubs.

EI haven’t a hope for SA, whether CPT or elsewhere, the stage length is too long. They’d end up needing two A330s for it as they’d likely have to leave one on the ground for a long time to maximise connections. As a company that prides themselves on maximising asset usage that won’t be happening any time soon.

While I don't think that EI will imminently launch a route outside North America, it is something they should be keeping an eye on. A new US route will often be an easier sell due to the O&D traffic compared to Asia, India or Africa. There is no doubt that DXB was a disaster, but the airline that launched that route couldn't make BWI/IAD, LAX or SFO work either. In terms of on-board product and capability of working with IAG Sales, Loyalty and Cargo the airline is a different organisation.
If EI ever were to operate to CPT or JNB, especially, the A350 would be a much better choice in terms of performance and until the new runway has been built there is no realistic prospect of Asian destinations, the interest from Asian airlines is encouraging though, IMO.

Qatar are increasing DOH to double daily between July and October 2020

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 8827461632

EI121 wrote:

Qatar are increasing DOH to double daily between July and October 2020

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 8827461632

Next move would be a larger plane.

Funny how QR continue to increase services to DUB while EY continue to decrease them.

EIEIDW wrote:

EI121 wrote:

Qatar are increasing DOH to double daily between July and October 2020

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 8827461632

Next move would be a larger plane.

Funny how QR continue to increase services to DUB while EY continue to decrease them.

Fair play to EY though despite cutting loads of staff , lounges and frequencies they have held on the route against cut throat competition from QR / EK.

OA260 wrote:

EIEIDW wrote:

EI121 wrote:

Qatar are increasing DOH to double daily between July and October 2020

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 8827461632

Next move would be a larger plane.

Funny how QR continue to increase services to DUB while EY continue to decrease them.

Fair play to EY though despite cutting loads of staff , lounges and frequencies they have held on the route against cut throat competition from QR / EK.

They’ve retreated significantly since EK & QR arrived, it wasn’t too long ago they had the market to themselves. You would think years of building up a customer base and brand loyalty would have accounted for more than being pushed out of the way and overtaken in a relatively short space of time. CX pulling out is the only good news that’s come out of Dublin for EY in a long time.

Would be good to see AI add DEL this year, certainly room for a 3-4 weekly service.

bhxalex wrote:

Would be good to see AI add DEL this year, certainly room for a 3-4 weekly service.

If they last that long.

OA260 wrote:

bhxalex wrote:

Would be good to see AI add DEL this year, certainly room for a 3-4 weekly service.

If they last that long.

Are there any real rumours of it happening?

If Long Haul expansion for EI is US/Canada and the growth has been steady in years to date I wonder do they plan to grow the SH frequencies/routes too.

They will need to either squeeze out P2P passengers to make room for more connecting pax or increase their feed. The SH question remains interesting for them. I wonder were they ignoring SH waiting for the Ryanair interline agreement? Perhaps with the Stobart deal up for renewal (2021?) it will lead to a new strategy. I think their current strategy is fine but will it feed increased US flights.

EIEIDW wrote:

OA260 wrote:

bhxalex wrote:

Would be good to see AI add DEL this year, certainly room for a 3-4 weekly service.

If they last that long.

Are there any real rumours of it happening?

Time will tell.

—


Passengers down by 60,000 at Aldergrove in November amid Ryanair winter cutbacks

CUTS by Ryanair to its operation at Belfast International Airport contributed to a 60,000 (13 per cent) drop in passenger numbers during November, new official data suggests.

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), which monitors monthly passenger traffic through UK airports, recorded 396,600 passengers at Aldergrove during the month. It compares with the 456,313 from November 2018.

www.irishnews.com/business/2020/01/03/n ... s-1804472/

—


Ryanair's O'Leary prepared for more 737 Max delays

Ryanair is prepared for further delays to the delivery of its Boeing 737 Max airliners, its chief executive Michael O'Leary told a German magazine.

In the interview with Wirtschaftswoche, Mr O'Leary added that he would only discuss compensation after the aircraft had been delivered.

www.rte.ie/amp/1104099/

EI's SNN-JFK route starts its 9-week downtime on Monday, so I'm presuming another 757 will be returned to the lessor then, leaving just one left operational in the fleet. Will all 757s be gone by the start of the summer schedule in March?

AmricanShamrok wrote:

EI's SNN-JFK route starts its 9-week downtime on Monday, so I'm presuming another 757 will be returned to the lessor then, leaving just one left operational in the fleet. Will all 757s be gone by the start of the summer schedule in March?

EI-LBT leaving in the coming days.

EI-CJX staying on till May.

At least that was the plan at the start of the winter schedule.

With the 757 gone from SNN, will their A320/A321LR flights be crewed by DUB and ORK pilots or will they set up a base at SNN now all based aircraft have a common type rating?

A big thanks to OA260 for the news clippings over the past 12 months.

BestWestern wrote:

A big thanks to OA260 for the news clippings over the past 12 months.

Completely agree, while some of the things I see on my own, there is always a bunch that I wouldn't have seen without OA260 posting these. Really enjoy them, so a big thank you from me as well!

BestWestern wrote:

A big thanks to OA260 for the news clippings over the past 12 months.

ClassicLover wrote:

BestWestern wrote:

A big thanks to OA260 for the news clippings over the past 12 months.

Completely agree, while some of the things I see on my own, there is always a bunch that I wouldn't have seen without OA260 posting these. Really enjoy them, so a big thank you from me as well!

Thanks for the comments much appreciated. Glad you enjoy them. We enjoy a good amount of articles in the Irish media with regards to Aviation so there is always something to share. I always try to find items from all over the country from all Irish/N.Irish airports. Of course everyone has their contributions on various aspects whether it be personal experiences ,rumors, technical info and future projects which is what makes this thread so successful. Also a thank you to Kaitak who has worked hard on the threads for many years.

2020 is looking to be a great year and it is sometimes easy to forget just how far things have come with routes and airlines we never could have imagined being here 10 years ago.

EINA320 wrote:

With the 757 gone from SNN, will their A320/A321LR flights be crewed by DUB and ORK pilots or will they set up a base at SNN now all based aircraft have a common type rating?

No real point in setting up a Shannon base for pilots unless you were to increase the number of aircraft.

DUB pilots and many of the ASL pilots on B757s were from EI and moved temporarily after reaching an agreement so will move back.

AmricanShamrok wrote:

EI's SNN-JFK route starts its 9-week downtime on Monday, so I'm presuming another 757 will be returned to the lessor then, leaving just one left operational in the fleet. Will all 757s be gone by the start of the summer schedule in March?

9 week downtime? It resumes 13th of February with an A321LR

806,000 passengers for Knock Airport in 2019, up 4.5%
2020:
Lauda to PMI begins April 2nd
Ryanair to GRO resumes July 4th (reduced season for 2020 only operates for 8 weeks)


Ryanair TFS and ACE ended on January 2nd
Flybe to EDI reduced from 4x/wk to 2x/wk for S20 (bar July and August where it will remain at 4x/wk)
Albastar/TUI to PMI not operating for 2020.

SNN99 wrote:

AmricanShamrok wrote:

EI's SNN-JFK route starts its 9-week downtime on Monday, so I'm presuming another 757 will be returned to the lessor then, leaving just one left operational in the fleet. Will all 757s be gone by the start of the summer schedule in March?

9 week downtime? It resumes 13th of February with an A321LR

So it is. Before I posted the other evening, the EI booking site was only showing SNN-JFK as one-stop options via BOS until 11th March but it's bookable now again from 13th February. Weird. Good to see an decrease in the downtime on last year though.

AmricanShamrok wrote:

SNN99 wrote:

AmricanShamrok wrote:

EI's SNN-JFK route starts its 9-week downtime on Monday, so I'm presuming another 757 will be returned to the lessor then, leaving just one left operational in the fleet. Will all 757s be gone by the start of the summer schedule in March?

9 week downtime? It resumes 13th of February with an A321LR

So it is. Before I posted the other evening, the EI booking site was only showing SNN-JFK as one-stop options via BOS until 11th March but it's bookable now again from 13th February. Weird. Good to see an decrease in the downtime on last year though.

LRD is due in February so probably why. Safe to say both routes will probably run year round next year as no downtime will be required for maintenance

SNN99 wrote:

AmricanShamrok wrote:

SNN99 wrote:

9 week downtime? It resumes 13th of February with an A321LR

So it is. Before I posted the other evening, the EI booking site was only showing SNN-JFK as one-stop options via BOS until 11th March but it's bookable now again from 13th February. Weird. Good to see an decrease in the downtime on last year though.

LRD is due in February so probably why. Safe to say both routes will probably run year round next year as no downtime will be required for maintenance

I believe EI hasn't run both BOS and JFK concurrently through the full winter schedule since 2009/10. Hopefully the increased capacity works well for them and we get a restoration of the ORD route.

Anyone got an idea on how PVG bookings are?

CityJet and Air Nostrum prepare for merger takeoff

Long-mooted deal between Dublin carrier and its Spanish suitor may finally take flight

It must be among the longest courtships in Irish corporate history. At the Farnborough air show in July 2018, Pat Byrne’s CityJet announced its intention to join forces with Spanish airline Air Nostrum “with the aim to bring about closer co-operation between the two airlines under the umbrella of a new holding company”.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cityjet-and- ... -v8zdbf9tz

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Shannon Airport’s Reliance On London Revealed In Latest CSO Stats

Almost 380,000 passengers passed through Shannon Airport in the third quarter of 2019.

Figures from the CSO show that’s an increase of around 9,000 on the same period in 2018, but the data also reveals that Shannon is still heavily reliant on London as a major hub.

www.clare.fm/news/shannon-airport/shann ... cso-stats/

EI-LBT B752 has just landed at SNN after positioning from Dublin. Its last revenue service with Aer Lingus was last night's EI128 YYZ-DUB. The remaining 757, EI-CJX, will now be assigned to DUB to operate a mix of MSP and ORD services.

Do we know if the 3x retired Aer Lingus 757s going to be kept by ASL? Their Belgian subsidiary has a fleet of 757 converted freighters. Glad the RR powered one with be around until May, hope to get a ride on it by then.

Light aircraft damaged upon landing at Cork Airport

A light aircraft has suffered damage to its nosewheel on landing at Cork Airport this lunchtime.

All emergency services were put on standby in the last half an hour amid concerns about the operation of the aircraft's wheels as it approached the runway.

https://amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingn ... 73840.html

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Irish lessor Avolon owned or managed 525 aircraft at the end of 2019
Aircraft leasing company paid investors dividend of $285m in final quarter of 2019

Dublin-based aviation lessor Avolon delivered, delivered, sold or moved 170 aircraft in 2019, an average of more than three transactions a week, the Irish company said on Monday.

www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-a ... 4?mode=amp

This is just a question....Do you think we will ever see BA operate BHD-LCY?

Alex

richcandy wrote:

This is just a question....Do you think we will ever see BA operate BHD-LCY?

Alex

Not unless Flybe drop their current 6 daily rotations.

BHD provides BA with connecting traffic into LHR, they may not be interested in O&D into LCY.

AmricanShamrok wrote:

I believe EI hasn't run both BOS and JFK concurrently through the full winter schedule since 2009/10. Hopefully the increased capacity works well for them and we get a restoration of the ORD route.

Well the A321LR is supposed to be 25% cheaper to operate than the B757 so it certainly should be more viable.