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PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:24 am

First of all, lets not get into yet again another DL hub #[email protected] contest. Its absolutely silly in the current environment.
No hub is profitable in the current, low-tide demand environment.

However, lets put a few things into context:
- SLC has the highest percentage of seats YOY, but yet like every other hub that doesn't exclude seats not for sale due to middle seat blocking
- SLC is the least exposed to the lack of international capacity and demand of the 4 core hubs. It has far less international capacity in years prior than ATL, DTW, MSP which is significantly lagging domestic and/or highly impact by travel restrictions
- The mountain west is outpacing demand recovery versus the Northeast & Midwest
- SLC has a strong demand component generated from leisure travel which has been (relatively) strong to the mountain west and national parks, and with skiing this winter
- DL has suspended a lot of "long-and-thin" hub overflying, so routes from ATL / DTW / MSP into secondary markets that overflew SLC have been reduced, the network has been more regionalized thus keeping connectivity in the west to SLC
- Competitive reasons to maintain capacity in more competitive western markets
- SLC is far less exposed to business travel that is currently only at about of 10-15% of last year, in particular the historical bread-and-butter professional services, consultancies, tech firms, and other service providers that filled a lot of seats out of ATL & NYC (and a lesser extent DTW & MSP)

Let's keep things in perspective, DL made the decision to proceed in the matter they are with SLC construction balancing a number of factors.
Its a trade-off to be potentially constrained a bit in Summer 2021 and Summer 2022 however they have many options to work around.
- At some point, likely by next summer DL will probably open up some portion of middle seats, that will add more seats. Some of this capacity operating now is more or less to compensate for reduced capacity on a per-flight basis with seat blocking
- Restoration of more hub overflying from ATL / DTW / MSP
- Routing more connecting traffic from the midwest and east coast into some of the mountain/western markets over MSP (e.g., YVR, FCA, BZN, JAC)
- Hardstand / busing operation for RJs
- New modern facilities also tend to be able to have increased gate turns/utililzation than other facilities with more optimal layouts and infrastructure
 
winginit
Posts: 3049
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:02 am

klm617 wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:


What evidence is there that SLC is it's best performing hub ?


Delta is flying 92 percent of SLC seats this October compared with last October, the highest percentage of any US hub (not just Delta hubs.) Also Airport Director Bill Wyatt stated SLC is Delta's fastest recovering hub at the grand opening of the new terminal.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/20 ... lake-city/



That doesn't mean it's the best performing. Delta was dumping loads of recourses into Boston before covid and it was Delta's fasted growing hub but that doesn't mean it was printing money. I think until Delta publicly shares it's profit margin at it's hubs you can't make that claim with 100% accuracy. SEA is also up there when it comes to operating at precovid level.


Delta has stated publicly that SLC is their highest margin hub.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 948
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:02 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
It's really too bad that Delta's best performing hub is going to be severely gate constrained for the next three years. I get why SLC is tearing down the old airport now and it will be awesome when the new one is finished but it sucks Delta won't be able really grow there until the mid-2020s. Unless they want to run a massive bus/hard stand operation with both RJs and mainline.


It is better to shift into high gear and be ready for when demand really returns around 2023/2024. Doing it in stages was going to be a disaster.

I do wonder when things recover if DL will fund the 15 gate build out of Concourse B that is labeled future expansion. There is certainly a case for it, DL will need to get bigger in SLC once things recover.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:08 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
It's really too bad that Delta's best performing hub is going to be severely gate constrained for the next three years. I get why SLC is tearing down the old airport now and it will be awesome when the new one is finished but it sucks Delta won't be able really grow there until the mid-2020s. Unless they want to run a massive bus/hard stand operation with both RJs and mainline.


DL's best performing hub? You're basing your conclusion on a fallacy. SLC has experienced a similar drop in O/D as the rest of the nation -- not exactly surprising; you can't travel for business when 90% of white collar workers are staying home, you can't travel for leisure when virtually every form of entertainment (dining out, sporting events, theme parks), etc. is closed, etc. The reason SLC has experienced less cuts -- as a YOY % -- in service as the other trunk hubs is quite simple: DL's zealous to maintain market share, SLC is its best option to serve secondary western markets, and SLC lacked the exposure to highly impacted markets (like NYC, Orlando, etc.) that the other hubs had. It's probable SLC will see little capacity growth in 2021, as the industry recovers and DL adds back flights from its other hubs to the Northeast, Florida and - of course - secondary western markets.

winginit wrote:
Delta has stated publicly that SLC is their highest margin hub.
Yeah, and according to some other users participating in this very same thread, DL has publicly stated MSP is its highest margin hub. So which is it? And why isn't there a public record of public statements that DL's made?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:13 am

DL continues to be zealous in its quest for market share. Even after UA, AA and even WN recently imploded their November schedules, turning the Sunday after Thanksgiving into a regular COVID-era Sunday, DL continues to plan a capacity surge that day, with tons of flight additions and tons of upgauging. There's still tons of flights being upgauged to widebodies that da (but shamefully DL took the one-off 764 off LAS-LAX).
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2481
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:28 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
DL continues to be zealous in its quest for market share. Even after UA, AA and even WN recently imploded their November schedules, turning the Sunday after Thanksgiving into a regular COVID-era Sunday, DL continues to plan a capacity surge that day, with tons of flight additions and tons of upgauging. There's still tons of flights being upgauged to widebodies that da (but shamefully DL took the one-off 764 off LAS-LAX).


I think that’s an unsupportable accusation that DL is “zealously” chasing market share. DL, like all the airlines, are trying to minimize how much they bleed. Now isn’t the time for all of the market share grabs.

Further, unlike UA and AA, DL is blocking middle seats. That means the same DL plane carries 1/3 less. So all that upguaging and additions will, in large part, reflect the need to be on a similar basis to its peers.

Finally, which airline has announced up to 400 aircraft retirements? 200 this year alone? It’s not UA, AA, or WN. It’s DL.

I’m not sure why have a chip on your shoulder about DL.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:47 am

jbs2886 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
DL continues to be zealous in its quest for market share. Even after UA, AA and even WN recently imploded their November schedules, turning the Sunday after Thanksgiving into a regular COVID-era Sunday, DL continues to plan a capacity surge that day, with tons of flight additions and tons of upgauging. There's still tons of flights being upgauged to widebodies that da (but shamefully DL took the one-off 764 off LAS-LAX).


I think that’s an unsupportable accusation that DL is “zealously” chasing market share. DL, like all the airlines, are trying to minimize how much they bleed. Now isn’t the time for all of the market share grabs.

Further, unlike UA and AA, DL is blocking middle seats. That means the same DL plane carries 1/3 less. So all that upguaging and additions will, in large part, reflect the need to be on a similar basis to its peers.

Finally, which airline has announced up to 400 aircraft retirements? 200 this year alone? It’s not UA, AA, or WN. It’s DL.

I’m not sure why have a chip on your shoulder about DL.


I have no chip on my shoulder about DL. It's pretty clear the airline's chasing market share; DL's operating significantly more capacity than its peers this fall, even factoring in the blocked middle seats -- which is a fallacy on your given that LF continue to be below 66% (and heck, WN is "blocking" the middle seats as well and still imploded its November schedule). DL could easily cut capacity and shrink its losses... but it's a business decision -- e.g. a decade ago, UA cut way too much domestic capacity and never recovered, losing out on tens of billions in positive cash flow.

And the "400 aircraft retirements" is wildly deceptive, given that by the time the last of those aircraft is removed from service, the lion's share of capacity will have been replaced.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2481
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:55 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
DL continues to be zealous in its quest for market share. Even after UA, AA and even WN recently imploded their November schedules, turning the Sunday after Thanksgiving into a regular COVID-era Sunday, DL continues to plan a capacity surge that day, with tons of flight additions and tons of upgauging. There's still tons of flights being upgauged to widebodies that da (but shamefully DL took the one-off 764 off LAS-LAX).


I think that’s an unsupportable accusation that DL is “zealously” chasing market share. DL, like all the airlines, are trying to minimize how much they bleed. Now isn’t the time for all of the market share grabs.

Further, unlike UA and AA, DL is blocking middle seats. That means the same DL plane carries 1/3 less. So all that upguaging and additions will, in large part, reflect the need to be on a similar basis to its peers.

Finally, which airline has announced up to 400 aircraft retirements? 200 this year alone? It’s not UA, AA, or WN. It’s DL.

I’m not sure why have a chip on your shoulder about DL.


I have no chip on my shoulder about DL. It's pretty clear the airline's chasing market share; DL's operating significantly more capacity than its peers this fall, even factoring in the blocked middle seats -- which is a fallacy on your given that LF continue to be below 66% (and heck, WN is "blocking" the middle seats as well and still imploded its November schedule). DL could easily cut capacity and shrink its losses... but it's a business decision -- e.g. a decade ago, UA cut way too much domestic capacity and never recovered, losing out on tens of billions in positive cash flow.

And the "400 aircraft retirements" is wildly deceptive, given that by the time the last of those aircraft is removed from service, the lion's share of capacity will have been replaced.


Even if DL is operating significantly more, you have no basis to explain how that’s just a market share grab. DL has a lot of fixed costs and if the marginal cost of operating additional flights is less than the additional revenue, it’s a net win. You haven’t cited any evidence in support of your argument and it’s purely speculation.

Also, as I said, 200 of those aircraft retirements are 2020 alone. That number is still far greater than UA and AA.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:24 am

jbs2886 wrote:
[Even if DL is operating significantly more, you have no basis to explain how that’s just a market share grab. DL has a lot of fixed costs and if the marginal cost of operating additional flights is less than the additional revenue, it’s a net win. You haven’t cited any evidence in support of your argument and it’s purely speculation.


It's a foolish point to argue. If it weren't about market share, DL would be operating a heavily limited schedule. Even adjusting for special items, DL lost more money than it took in -- they're not even close to covering their contribution costs. DL's lost tons of money in NYC, LAX and ATL, but still operates tons of money losing flights because of market share. And like I said, the number of flights departing "full" is small and immaterial... DL's leaving middle seats open because on most flights, nobody's going to sit there anyway (and obviously DL is hopeful that the additional traffic the marketing ploy attracts will offset the revenue losses on flights they could've filled the seats).

Also, as I said, 200 of those aircraft retirements are 2020 alone. That number is still far greater than UA and AA.


That's really deceitful. Nearly half those aircraft were planned retirements, with replacements on property. And again, by the time the last of the 400 aircraft you mentioned earlier (of course, 125 are CRJ) are retired in 2025, the lion's share of capacity will have been replaced.
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:36 pm

Delta Air Lines in recent schedule update filed expanded Airbus A330-300 service to Cancun for Northern winter season. As of 18OCT20, the A330-300 is scheduled to operate Detroit – Cancun route once a day, from 07DEC20 to 10JAN21. During peak season (Christmas/New Year), the airline operates 3 daily flights.

DL578 DTW1005 – 1400CUN 333 D
DL1911 CUN1520 – 1910DTW 333 D
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
DeltaMD95
Posts: 555
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:07 am

Looks like the 717 has returned to DTW specific ops, including DTW-PHL and CLT, per FR24. Would be nice to see DTW-ORD return in the future, which is currently a CR9.
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8495
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:56 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
[Even if DL is operating significantly more, you have no basis to explain how that’s just a market share grab. DL has a lot of fixed costs and if the marginal cost of operating additional flights is less than the additional revenue, it’s a net win. You haven’t cited any evidence in support of your argument and it’s purely speculation.


It's a foolish point to argue. If it weren't about market share, DL would be operating a heavily limited schedule. Even adjusting for special items, DL lost more money than it took in -- they're not even close to covering their contribution costs. DL's lost tons of money in NYC, LAX and ATL, but still operates tons of money losing flights because of market share. And like I said, the number of flights departing "full" is small and immaterial... DL's leaving middle seats open because on most flights, nobody's going to sit there anyway (and obviously DL is hopeful that the additional traffic the marketing ploy attracts will offset the revenue losses on flights they could've filled the seats).

Also, as I said, 200 of those aircraft retirements are 2020 alone. That number is still far greater than UA and AA.


That's really deceitful. Nearly half those aircraft were planned retirements, with replacements on property. And again, by the time the last of the 400 aircraft you mentioned earlier (of course, 125 are CRJ) are retired in 2025, the lion's share of capacity will have been replaced.


One can ignore the 47 MD-88s and the 26 MD-90s (see the 3Q20 10-K) and it's still more retirements than AA, UA or WN.

DL hasn't announced the schedule for backfilling capacity (but I'm going to guess it's a lot less than 100% thru 2023, as otherwise they wouldn't have spent $3.1 Billion to get 17,000 people to retire). DL hasn't announced a revised aircraft delivery schedule comparable to the outline it has presented in annual reports. Look for it in the next annual report, probably out mid-February.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:01 pm

Some changes to long-haul loaded this past weekend:

W20-21:
- BOS-LHR cancelled until Apr 1 2021
- JFK-MAD cancelled until Mar 1 2021
- JFK-FCO cut 4x to 3x weekly
- JFK-TLV cut to daily from 2x daily

S21:
- reinstated ATL-VCE and MSP-KEF
- adding back BOS-FCO (was supposed to start for S20)
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2481
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
One can ignore the 47 MD-88s and the 26 MD-90s (see the 3Q20 10-K) and it's still more retirements than AA, UA or WN.

DL hasn't announced the schedule for backfilling capacity (but I'm going to guess it's a lot less than 100% thru 2023, as otherwise they wouldn't have spent $3.1 Billion to get 17,000 people to retire). DL hasn't announced a revised aircraft delivery schedule comparable to the outline it has presented in annual reports. Look for it in the next annual report, probably out mid-February.


I gave up trying to have a discussion with him. He was dead set on DL was chasing market share and refused to look at any facts. DL's retirements are substantial, but I think DL is taking the approach to just retire aircraft that it can rather than doing long-term parking of aircraft and not simplifying the fleet.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:09 pm

klm617 wrote:
Delta Air Lines in recent schedule update filed expanded Airbus A330-300 service to Cancun for Northern winter season. As of 18OCT20, the A330-300 is scheduled to operate Detroit – Cancun route once a day, from 07DEC20 to 10JAN21. During peak season (Christmas/New Year), the airline operates 3 daily flights.

DL578 DTW1005 – 1400CUN 333 D
DL1911 CUN1520 – 1910DTW 333 D
Don't forget the 767-400 to MCO!
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 567
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:19 am

I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
NateGreat
Posts: 501
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:32 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?

By comparison, how many daily flights do AA and UA have for summer 2021?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:43 am

NateGreat wrote:
By comparison, how many daily flights do AA and UA have for summer 2021?


American's planning a full LHR schedule in summer 2021 with two more daily flights compared to summer 2019:

- DFW 4x daily
- ORD 4x daily
- JFK 4x daily
- LAX 2x daily
- PHL 2x daily
- CLT 2x daily
- MIA 1x daily
- RDU 1x daily
- PHX 1x daily
- BOS 1x daily (new for 2021)
- SEA 1x daily (new for 2021)

23 daily flights.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:49 am

Anyone operating a complete schedule in Summer 2021 is complete BS....just sayin'
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8495
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:51 pm

The schedule for summer 2021 isn't fixed. Schedules for this December aren't even fixed! You will keep seeing TATL adds and deletions in enilria's reports.
 
777Mech
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:10 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?


I very much doubt DL would lose the slots during these times, especially if there is still soft demand for all of the airlines through next year.
I thought I read somewhere about slot waivers due to COVID, but I think it was for an airport somewhere in the states
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:12 pm

777Mech wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?


I very much doubt DL would lose the slots during these times, especially if there is still soft demand for all of the airlines through next year.
I thought I read somewhere about slot waivers due to COVID, but I think it was for an airport somewhere in the states


If they want to be bold they could try to bring back some former routes. EWR/PHL-LHR come to mind.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:52 pm

Any loss of slots at LHR would obviously require the slot restrictions to be reimposed. And while that would put DL (and AA & UA) in a tough spot, the real loser would be BA.

Simply put, BA benefits the most with the current slot waivers, and stands the most to lose if the restrictions are reimposed and passenger demand is not there. It also would likely trigger the airlines to relaunch a bunch of excess unnecessary flights and the pollution that comes with it. Simply put, I can’t see the decision to reimpose slot restrictions when demand is down to be politically palatable for either reason, let alone both.

The point is, the slot waivers are likely to remain until demand comes back. And unfortunately at this point, I think we are looking at summer 2022 before the slot restrictions kick back in... which would obviously make DL’s reduced LHR for 2021 a moot point.
 
LAXffDUB
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:05 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:12 pm

Does anybody know if today's last 777 flight (#8777) is getting a special commemoration at either JFK or LAX? Perhaps a water salute or passengers receiving a keepsake?
 
Delta350
Posts: 218
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:37 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:13 pm

LAXffDUB wrote:
Does anybody know if today's last 777 flight (#8777) is getting a special commemoration at either JFK or LAX? Perhaps a water salute or passengers receiving a keepsake?

Most likely a water salute at LAX
Plane Spotter from the Magic City and Hartsfield-Jackson...(ATL)
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:40 am

kavok wrote:
Any loss of slots at LHR would obviously require the slot restrictions to be reimposed. And while that would put DL (and AA & UA) in a tough spot, the real loser would be BA.

Simply put, BA benefits the most with the current slot waivers, and stands the most to lose if the restrictions are reimposed and passenger demand is not there. It also would likely trigger the airlines to relaunch a bunch of excess unnecessary flights and the pollution that comes with it. Simply put, I can’t see the decision to reimpose slot restrictions when demand is down to be politically palatable for either reason, let alone both.

The point is, the slot waivers are likely to remain until demand comes back. And unfortunately at this point, I think we are looking at summer 2022 before the slot restrictions kick back in... which would obviously make DL’s reduced LHR for 2021 a moot point.

If slot usage requirements were reinstated, BA would just move everything over from LGW and then add a bunch of short haul flights and possibly even ghost flights to LGW, STN, etc. It would hurt non British/European carriers more as they would have to fly a lot of empty long haul flights to maintain their slots as opposed to the short haul slot squatting BA and other Euro carriers could do.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2481
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:16 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?


IIRC some of the slots are owned by AF/KLM, do you can probably expect temporary use on short-haul to CDG and/or AMS if the current waiver is not in place.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:43 am

jbs2886 wrote:
I gave up trying to have a discussion with him. He was dead set on DL was chasing market share and refused to look at any facts. DL's retirements are substantial, but I think DL is taking the approach to just retire aircraft that it can rather than doing long-term parking of aircraft and not simplifying the fleet.


I pointed out that DL was planning significantly more capacity than its peers for the remainder of the year (please note that since my post was published, DL has updated its schedules to retract some of the capacity). You asserted that it's more comparable when you consider DL is blocking middle seats; I pointed out that this is a logical fallacy given DL's load factors; only an immaterial number of flights are departing "full" (at current capacity levels). You asserted that DL is operating so much capacity because its able to cover its per-flight costs and eat into its fixed costs. This is hardly true; while we don't have full data sets, we can use available data to conclude that DL isn't generating enough revenue to come close to covering its fuel & labor costs on most routes. You then asserted that DL is retiring more aircraft than its peers. I pointed out that, again, this is deceitful -- AA & UA have plenty of idle capacity. Yes, DL has been more active in formal announcements, but we'll probably get those from AA & UA as the months go on. Not to mention, DL will likely have replaced much of the outgoing capacity by mid-decade.

Bottom line: DL is flying plenty of money-losing flights. There's no other logical explanation beyond the fact that it's using its cash position (and weak position at AA, UA) to gain market share. If things start to recover next year, as DL projects, the rewards are high. As time goes on though, it's increasingly looking as if 2021 will be another dud.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8495
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:30 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Bottom line: DL is flying plenty of money-losing flights. There's no other logical explanation beyond the fact that it's using its cash position (and weak position at AA, UA) to gain market share.


AA and WN crashed yields 3Q, not DL (or UA). Who's chasing market share?

If one wants to talk about money-losing flights one needs to understand the concept of contribution margin - prices that cover marginal cost plus some (perhaps small) piece of fixed overheads. Thru 9/30/20 (meaning the entirety of 3Q20 financial reporting), labor was fundamentally a fixed cost - layoffs were prohibited for recipients of CARES Act PSP funds. So variable costs were really fuel, some maintenance, any fixed-fee/fixed schedule RJ ops, contracted services on a per-flight basis, and some landing fees/passenger charges. One can look at passenger revenues of $1,938 million, fuel costs of $486 million, and be fairly confident that DL had a positive contribution margin. That's not to argue that every flight/every day generated positive CM.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 648
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:02 am

Just found this trip report from someone who was on the final Delta flight from JFK-LAX.

https://youtu.be/yGo4SIwe5Wc

Looks like there wasn’t much fanfare at the gate at JFK. No balloons or anything, LAX did have some balloons and a little bit more show.

On board the flight there was some ice cream and a trading card, but other than that nothing was given to passengers. Some announcements as well.

Is that normal for a retirement flight, Or is there usually more?
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
n7371f
Posts: 1851
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:23 am

I'm told neither.

Delta350 wrote:
LAXffDUB wrote:
Does anybody know if today's last 777 flight (#8777) is getting a special commemoration at either JFK or LAX? Perhaps a water salute or passengers receiving a keepsake?

Most likely a water salute at LAX
 
777Mech
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:35 am

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Just found this trip report from someone who was on the final Delta flight from JFK-LAX.

https://youtu.be/yGo4SIwe5Wc

Looks like there wasn’t much fanfare at the gate at JFK. No balloons or anything, LAX did have some balloons and a little bit more show.

On board the flight there was some ice cream and a trading card, but other than that nothing was given to passengers. Some announcements as well.

Is that normal for a retirement flight, Or is there usually more?


There is COVID going on.

I wouldn't want my company blowing money on a needless celebration of sorts. Fly it to VCV and keep it moving.
 
Delta350
Posts: 218
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:40 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Just found this trip report from someone who was on the final Delta flight from JFK-LAX.

https://youtu.be/yGo4SIwe5Wc

Looks like there wasn’t much fanfare at the gate at JFK. No balloons or anything, LAX did have some balloons and a little bit more show.

On board the flight there was some ice cream and a trading card, but other than that nothing was given to passengers. Some announcements as well.

Is that normal for a retirement flight, Or is there usually more?

There is usually more. For the last MD-88 and MD-90 they balloons at both airports for the MD88, water solute, they gave out special cookies and other little things and passengers signed there name or wrote a message on the overhead/ windows of the planes.
Plane Spotter from the Magic City and Hartsfield-Jackson...(ATL)
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:45 pm

I have noticed that DL is much smaller at BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here is the breakdown of current DL nonstop routes out of BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU:
BOS - AMS, ATL, CVG, CLE, DTW, FLL, LAS, LHR, LAX, MSP, BNA, JFK, LGA, MCO, CDG, PIT, RDU, RIC, SLC, SEA, TPA (40 daily departures)
CVG - ATL, DTW, RSW, LAS, LAX, MSP, LGA, EWR, MCO, SLC, TPA (24 daily departures)
LGA - ATL, BOS, CLT, ORD, CVG, CLE, CMH, DFW, DTW, FLL, RSW, IAH, IND, MCI, MIA, MSP, BNA, MCO, PIT, RDU, RIC, STL, TPA, DCA, PBI (59 daily departures)
JFK - ACC, AMS, AUA, ATL, AUS, BOS, BUF, CUN, CHS, ORD, DSS, DEN, DTW, FLL, JAX, LAS, LHR, LAX, MAD, MEX, MIA, MXP, MSP, MBJ, MSY, MCO, CDG, PHX, PDX, RDU, ROC, FCO, STT, SLC, SAN, SFO, SJU, STI, SDQ, SAV, SEA, SYR, TPA, TLV, IAD, DCA (86 daily departures)
RDU - ATL, BOS, DTW, FLL, LAX, MSP, JFK, LGA, MCO, SLC, SEA, TPA (28 daily departures)

I have also noticed that DL is now down to only hubs, Florida, EWR, and LAS out of CVG, whereas DL still had nonstop service to other non-hub destinations out of CVG prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and CVG was still a hub for DL 10 years ago.

I have also noticed that most of the currently operating DL domestic nonstop routes out of BOS and JFK are either to hubs or destinations where DL competes against B6.

I do expect DL to be much smaller at BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU post-COVID-19 pandemic than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is DL likely to permanently discontinue most of its non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG and RDU, or is DL likely to resume some non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG and RDU after demand for domestic air travel recovers?

Is DL likely to ramp up flying out of BOS, LGA, and JFK once demand for domestic air travel recovers, or is DL likely to make some permanent cuts at BOS, LGA, and JFK?
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2904
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:12 pm

jplatts wrote:
I have noticed that DL is much smaller at BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here is the breakdown of current DL nonstop routes out of BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU:
BOS - AMS, ATL, CVG, CLE, DTW, FLL, LAS, LHR, LAX, MSP, BNA, JFK, LGA, MCO, CDG, PIT, RDU, RIC, SLC, SEA, TPA (40 daily departures)
CVG - ATL, DTW, RSW, LAS, LAX, MSP, LGA, EWR, MCO, SLC, TPA (24 daily departures)
LGA - ATL, BOS, CLT, ORD, CVG, CLE, CMH, DFW, DTW, FLL, RSW, IAH, IND, MCI, MIA, MSP, BNA, MCO, PIT, RDU, RIC, STL, TPA, DCA, PBI (59 daily departures)
JFK - ACC, AMS, AUA, ATL, AUS, BOS, BUF, CUN, CHS, ORD, DSS, DEN, DTW, FLL, JAX, LAS, LHR, LAX, MAD, MEX, MIA, MXP, MSP, MBJ, MSY, MCO, CDG, PHX, PDX, RDU, ROC, FCO, STT, SLC, SAN, SFO, SJU, STI, SDQ, SAV, SEA, SYR, TPA, TLV, IAD, DCA (86 daily departures)
RDU - ATL, BOS, DTW, FLL, LAX, MSP, JFK, LGA, MCO, SLC, SEA, TPA (28 daily departures)

I have also noticed that DL is now down to only hubs, Florida, EWR, and LAS out of CVG, whereas DL still had nonstop service to other non-hub destinations out of CVG prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and CVG was still a hub for DL 10 years ago.

I have also noticed that most of the currently operating DL domestic nonstop routes out of BOS and JFK are either to hubs or destinations where DL competes against B6.

I do expect DL to be much smaller at BOS, CVG, LGA, JFK, and RDU post-COVID-19 pandemic than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is DL likely to permanently discontinue most of its non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG and RDU, or is DL likely to resume some non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG and RDU after demand for domestic air travel recovers?

Is DL likely to ramp up flying out of BOS, LGA, and JFK once demand for domestic air travel recovers, or is DL likely to make some permanent cuts at BOS, LGA, and JFK?


Are there ANY airlines that haven't drastically reduced schedules from spokes? Even at ATL, DL's down considerably from pre-Covid. This is the case around the entire world. I don't really understand the point of listing out routes that have been reduced, this pandemic has been the biggest detriment to the airline industry in history.

Jeremy
 
jplatts
Posts: 3794
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:17 am

SESGDL wrote:
Are there ANY airlines that haven't drastically reduced schedules from spokes? Even at ATL, DL's down considerably from pre-Covid. This is the case around the entire world. I don't really understand the point of listing out routes that have been reduced, this pandemic has been the biggest detriment to the airline industry in history.


While WN has made significant cuts throughout its network, WN made fewer cuts at BNA than it did at its other large stations and there are still a few smaller WN spoke stations that have close to pre-pandemic levels of service on WN.

I never expected DL to reduce nonstop service out of CVG down to hubs, Florida, LAS, and EWR prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even though DL has dropped most of its non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The question I was asking is whether DL is planning on downsizing CVG down to a spoke with nonstop service to hubs plus a few p2p routes such as CVG-FLL/RSW/LAS/EWR/MCO/TPA after the COVID-19 pandemic, or if DL is planning on resuming other non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG after the COVID-19 pandemic is over.

I was also asking whether DL plans on resuming point-to-point flying out of RDU to some non-Florida destinations after the COVID-19 pandemic or if DL is planning on reducing RDU down to hubs and Florida post-COVID-19.

While DL is much smaller at LGA than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, I probably expect LGA to remain at least a focus city for DL with the amount of non-DL hub cities that DL still serves nonstop from LGA.

I am also asking if DL is planning on resuming nonstop routes out of BOS that it dropped such as BOS-IND/MCI/MKE/ORF once the COVID-19 pandemic is over.
 
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N717TW
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:50 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I have a great doubt regarding the Delta slots in LHR, for the summer of 2020 they had planned :
JFK 3 Daily
Atlanta 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit 2 Daily
Salt Lake City Daily
Portland Daily
It was eleven daily flights, now with the low demand for COVID-19, the summer 2021 schedule is as follows:
JFK 2 Daily
Boston Daily
Minneapolis Daily
Detroit Daily
Atlanta Daily
Seattle Daily
There are 7 daily flights, which will have happened with the remaining 4 slots, it would be crazy to lose them, can DL save them?


Didn't the slot administrator at LHR suspend slot rules through the pandemic? Recall how airlines were running ghost flights back in mid-march 2020 to preserve LHR slots before the rules were suspended.

Makes no sense for DL to run flights that will just burn more money...plus they honestly need to make sure VS survives. If the slot suspension is over, it would make the most sense for DL to essentially pay KL or AF to "lease" the extra slots and have them run E-Jets or CRJs to/from AMS or France rather than burn cash and potentially cause more harm to VS. I think you are allowed to lease out your slots for up to 18 months.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:10 am

Regarding all these questions about if/when/will these routes return is a complete wildcard. This is an unprecedented industry-wide disruption. This isn't talking about what routes were suspended, or what wasn't, or when it will come back. DL (and everyone else) is looking at a full-on network rebuild.

In the pandemic, they have retrenched to their core hubs. They are adding back capacity in areas where there is demand. RIght now the demand is very uneven across different customer segments, different regions, and different trip purposes. Its not a normal demand environment. Until segments of the demand return, travel restrictions subside, and we start to see an actual demand recovery toward anything resembling normal, these routes will not resume.

DL, like other legacies, have retrenched to their hubs, reduced long/thin hub overflying, and cut business-heavy markets.
When and if it returns all depends on how demand returns.

DL is likely to rebuild from its strengths outward, and yes capitalize in where it has customer/brand loyalty, corporate accounts (when and how they return to travel), and grow from there.

No one with any certainty can say if or when any of that stuff will return. Right now, its like everyone is flying a "Saturday" schedule.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:23 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL is likely to rebuild from its strengths outward, and yes capitalize in where it has customer/brand loyalty, corporate accounts (when and how they return to travel), and grow from there.


Agree. Delta’s most recent presentation indicates it will focus on retaining and growing its HVC (high value customers). It is leveraging its increased NPS and safety focus. It also will focus on core hubs and expand coastal hubs as restrictions ease. I don’t think we will see the UA-type hyper leisure expansion from DL.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... -Final.pdf
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 992
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:02 am

jbs2886 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL is likely to rebuild from its strengths outward, and yes capitalize in where it has customer/brand loyalty, corporate accounts (when and how they return to travel), and grow from there.


Agree. Delta’s most recent presentation indicates it will focus on retaining and growing its HVC (high value customers). It is leveraging its increased NPS and safety focus. It also will focus on core hubs and expand coastal hubs as restrictions ease. I don’t think we will see the UA-type hyper leisure expansion from DL.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... -Final.pdf

Delta’s HVC’s that are traveling, are doing so by private jet now. And just as in the 90’s, once they have discovered that convenience, DL, and the others will play hell getting them back.
 
777Mech
Posts: 1018
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:27 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL is likely to rebuild from its strengths outward, and yes capitalize in where it has customer/brand loyalty, corporate accounts (when and how they return to travel), and grow from there.


Agree. Delta’s most recent presentation indicates it will focus on retaining and growing its HVC (high value customers). It is leveraging its increased NPS and safety focus. It also will focus on core hubs and expand coastal hubs as restrictions ease. I don’t think we will see the UA-type hyper leisure expansion from DL.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... -Final.pdf

Delta’s HVC’s that are traveling, are doing so by private jet now. And just as in the 90’s, once they have discovered that convenience, DL, and the others will play hell getting them back.


Good news is they have a hand in one of the largest private jet operators as well.
 
evank516
Posts: 2170
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:53 pm

Some pretty interesting downgauges out of NYC with LGA-ORD reverting back to the E175 from the A220 and JFK-MSP being downgauged to the CR9 in December as well.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8495
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:17 pm

evank516 wrote:
Some pretty interesting downgauges out of NYC with LGA-ORD reverting back to the E175 from the A220 and JFK-MSP being downgauged to the CR9 in December as well.


One could ask if that's more a seasonal demand change or a consequence of parking A220s as pilots get retrained.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8495
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:19 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL is likely to rebuild from its strengths outward, and yes capitalize in where it has customer/brand loyalty, corporate accounts (when and how they return to travel), and grow from there.


Agree. Delta’s most recent presentation indicates it will focus on retaining and growing its HVC (high value customers). It is leveraging its increased NPS and safety focus. It also will focus on core hubs and expand coastal hubs as restrictions ease. I don’t think we will see the UA-type hyper leisure expansion from DL.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... -Final.pdf

Delta’s HVC’s that are traveling, are doing so by private jet now. And just as in the 90’s, once they have discovered that convenience, DL, and the others will play hell getting them back.


Got any data for that? I don't think lots of firms are telling tens of thousands of employees 'Sure, skip that $1,200 F ticket and go book $26,000 with NetJets.'
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2693
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:54 pm

jplatts wrote:

The question I was asking is whether DL is planning on downsizing CVG down to a spoke with nonstop service to hubs plus a few p2p routes such as CVG-FLL/RSW/LAS/EWR/MCO/TPA after the COVID-19 pandemic, or if DL is planning on resuming other non-hub nonstop routes out of CVG after the COVID-19 pandemic is over.

I was also asking whether DL plans on resuming point-to-point flying out of RDU to some non-Florida destinations after the COVID-19 pandemic or if DL is planning on reducing RDU down to hubs and Florida post-COVID-19.

While DL is much smaller at LGA than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, I probably expect LGA to remain at least a focus city for DL with the amount of non-DL hub cities that DL still serves nonstop from LGA.

I am also asking if DL is planning on resuming nonstop routes out of BOS that it dropped such as BOS-IND/MCI/MKE/ORF once the COVID-19 pandemic is over.


The only people that MIGHT be able to answer this are in the network planning and revenue management groups at Delta, and they're not going to come on here and tell competitors their plan to rebuild their network over the next year or two. They likely don't know the answers to these questions either as they're dependent on how things develop with the pandemic. I'd imagine they've game planned several scenarios with varying levels of demand and redesigned the network for each, but they have as little idea as we do which one they will be executing over the next couple years.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2481
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Agree. Delta’s most recent presentation indicates it will focus on retaining and growing its HVC (high value customers). It is leveraging its increased NPS and safety focus. It also will focus on core hubs and expand coastal hubs as restrictions ease. I don’t think we will see the UA-type hyper leisure expansion from DL.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... -Final.pdf

Delta’s HVC’s that are traveling, are doing so by private jet now. And just as in the 90’s, once they have discovered that convenience, DL, and the others will play hell getting them back.


Got any data for that? I don't think lots of firms are telling tens of thousands of employees 'Sure, skip that $1,200 F ticket and go book $26,000 with NetJets.'


Especially with companies tightening spending... HVCs are far more than just the CEOs of companies. Its the regular travelers of companies.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 206
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:19 pm

Ishrion wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
By comparison, how many daily flights do AA and UA have for summer 2021?


American's planning a full LHR schedule in summer 2021 with two more daily flights compared to summer 2019:

- DFW 4x daily
- ORD 4x daily
- JFK 4x daily
- LAX 2x daily
- PHL 2x daily
- CLT 2x daily
- MIA 1x daily
- RDU 1x daily
- PHX 1x daily
- BOS 1x daily (new for 2021)
- SEA 1x daily (new for 2021)

23 daily flights.


Did the increase on the AA side come from a reduction on the BA side?
 
DEN1895
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:21 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:23 pm

Does anyone know what is going on with Delta adding a ton of capacity to DEN from ATL in December? The week of the 20th, DEN gets 1 767-400, 2 767-300, along with A321s and 757's in addition to the normal 737-900s. I can't remember the last time Delta had multiple widebodies scheduled into DEN in the same day. Some what related, DL is adding an A321 from DTW, and a 757-300 from JFK during the same time period. It is also weird that Delta is advertising Denver on the DL home page for it's outdoor destinations when the SLC hub has similar amenities.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:37 pm

Ski traffic. Also popular over winter holiday break. With middle seats blocked need larger and or more flights for capacity. Plus lots of widebodies without all the international flights.

There are upgauging galore into sun and ski markets over holiday periods.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3052
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:48 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
By comparison, how many daily flights do AA and UA have for summer 2021?


American's planning a full LHR schedule in summer 2021 with two more daily flights compared to summer 2019:

- DFW 4x daily
- ORD 4x daily
- JFK 4x daily
- LAX 2x daily
- PHL 2x daily
- CLT 2x daily
- MIA 1x daily
- RDU 1x daily
- PHX 1x daily
- BOS 1x daily (new for 2021)
- SEA 1x daily (new for 2021)

23 daily flights.


Did the increase on the AA side come from a reduction on the BA side?


I don't believe so. British Airways is maintaining its 2019 SEA/BOS frequencies in March 2021. This is obviously subject to change as the summer approaches.

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