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A321Lufthansa
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:22 pm

By the way, will SN paint some other aircraft in Star Alliance livery as OO-SSC is gone? Taking aircrafts wearing EW livery makes sense, by the way - it can be even not entirely repainted, just the tail.
Last flown aircrafts: A21N TC-LSF < B738 TC-JVY < E190 D-AECF < B77W VP-BGC < A320 VP-BOM < A320 VQ-BES < A320 OE-LBO < A21N CS-TJO < A21N CS-TXC < E190 CS-TPQ < A319 F-GRXC < A321 F-GTAH < B738 SP-LWF < E175 SP-LII
 
tomcat
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Re: Lufthansa considering to remove A380 from the Fleet

Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:36 pm

Antarius wrote:
Nicoeddf wrote:
The 380 burns too much fuel for what it could have been with a wing not restricted to 80m, but hardly is anything near 95% load factor required.
And it burns too much fuel per seat compared with modern twins not in absolute numbers, but if you factor risk of filling around 500 seats vs 250 in.


The core point still stands - its an aircraft that has a much higher break even point than the rest of their fleet. With less demand projected in the near future, filling a large plane with high yield passengers is unlikely and therefore the type is uneconomical compared to the twins and even some smaller quads in their fleet.


So the main issue with the A380 at the moment is its size, not its fuel burn per se. Even if it was burning less fuel per passenger than a smaller twin, it would still be taken out of service. It also has the disadvantage of having a limited cargo capacity in relation to its size, which does not make it a favor. It is actually the ideal aircraft to be removed from the fleet in the current market because it allows to drastically reduce the passenger capacity while proportionally limiting the reduction in cargo capacity.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:32 pm

Lufthansa's CEO:

- "The only four-engine aircraft with a future is the Boeing 747-8."
- A340-600 and 747-400 retirement "will come soon"
- Decision to retire A380s will be made next week. If any are retired, that "probably would mean all".
- In talks with Airbus to speed up leased A350 orders that have the new business class product
- 3 MD-11s will stay until summer 2021.

https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/ ... 7309596673

Edit: Also looking at retiring Austrian's remaining 767s or 777s, "if at all and how many, as these are aircraft that don't have a future"

https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/ ... 6195934208
Last edited by Ishrion on Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Lufthansa considering to remove A380 from the Fleet

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:47 pm

tomcat wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Nicoeddf wrote:
The 380 burns too much fuel for what it could have been with a wing not restricted to 80m, but hardly is anything near 95% load factor required.
And it burns too much fuel per seat compared with modern twins not in absolute numbers, but if you factor risk of filling around 500 seats vs 250 in.


The core point still stands - its an aircraft that has a much higher break even point than the rest of their fleet. With less demand projected in the near future, filling a large plane with high yield passengers is unlikely and therefore the type is uneconomical compared to the twins and even some smaller quads in their fleet.


So the main issue with the A380 at the moment is its size, not its fuel burn per se. Even if it was burning less fuel per passenger than a smaller twin, it would still be taken out of service. It also has the disadvantage of having a limited cargo capacity in relation to its size, which does not make it a favor. It is actually the ideal aircraft to be removed from the fleet in the current market because it allows to drastically reduce the passenger capacity while proportionally limiting the reduction in cargo capacity.

What of if i argue that if the fuel burn was lower then one would’ve been more inclined to use the passenger deck and hold for cargo trips but the premium you would have to charge for the flight to be profitable would take you out of the market?
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:29 pm

mzlin wrote:
I think your interpretative caution is unnecessary, Revelation. Bloomberg doesn't report these things unless they have solid evidence; in this case it's a controlled leak but not to gauge reaction; just to get people prepared so the event doesn't shock people and cause volatility to the stock price. Idea being to give the impression (true) that LH considers things deliberately, and there isn't any unexpected change in LH's market standing.

Bloomberg has broken other stories in aviation recently (I believe they were the first to break the story of the A380 shutdown, or the reengine not going forward, or Emirates not ordering more, can't remember which) and as far as I recall they are always correct.

It looks like your version of events is playing out according to the Spaeth tweets quoted above.

So we had an anonymous leak, now the CEO with a pre-announcement, then the board meeting next week.

Here we have LH conducting the press like an orchestra.

LH A380 fans should go into a prayer vigil, a divine intervention is needed.
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Opus99
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
mzlin wrote:
I think your interpretative caution is unnecessary, Revelation. Bloomberg doesn't report these things unless they have solid evidence; in this case it's a controlled leak but not to gauge reaction; just to get people prepared so the event doesn't shock people and cause volatility to the stock price. Idea being to give the impression (true) that LH considers things deliberately, and there isn't any unexpected change in LH's market standing.

Bloomberg has broken other stories in aviation recently (I believe they were the first to break the story of the A380 shutdown, or the reengine not going forward, or Emirates not ordering more, can't remember which) and as far as I recall they are always correct.

It looks like your version of events is playing out according to the Spaeth tweets quoted above.

So we had an anonymous leak, now the CEO with a pre-announcement, then the board meeting next week.

Here we have LH conducting the press like an orchestra.

LH A380 fans should go into a prayer vigil, a divine intervention is needed.

I don’t think God is on their side with this particular one
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
mzlin wrote:
I think your interpretative caution is unnecessary, Revelation. Bloomberg doesn't report these things unless they have solid evidence; in this case it's a controlled leak but not to gauge reaction; just to get people prepared so the event doesn't shock people and cause volatility to the stock price. Idea being to give the impression (true) that LH considers things deliberately, and there isn't any unexpected change in LH's market standing.

Bloomberg has broken other stories in aviation recently (I believe they were the first to break the story of the A380 shutdown, or the reengine not going forward, or Emirates not ordering more, can't remember which) and as far as I recall they are always correct.

It looks like your version of events is playing out according to the Spaeth tweets quoted above.

So we had an anonymous leak, now the CEO with a pre-announcement, then the board meeting next week.

Here we have LH conducting the press like an orchestra.

LH A380 fans should go into a prayer vigil, a divine intervention is needed.


Given that Lourdes's airport already has an A380 recycling facility and two A380s have already been scrapped there (with more on the way), the prayer comparison sounds ironic.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:22 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Revelation wrote:
LH A380 fans should go into a prayer vigil, a divine intervention is needed.

Given that Lourdes's airport already has an A380 recycling facility and two A380s have already been scrapped there (with more on the way), the prayer comparison sounds ironic.

Fair enough, I'm not a Catholic so I didn't draw the connection, but I can see how others would.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:12 pm

In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:31 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.



I would not be optimistic about the 748Is. If demand does not come back sufficiently for LH —and I do not know what that is, but it is obvious that it will not be to pre-C19 levels—, then it is more than likely the 748Is are out. Once LH get rid of theirs, KE & CA will soon follow, assuming they have not already done so, as HMVs will instantly become significantly more expensive.

The good news is that an STC to convert to BCF models should not pose to great a difficulty, assuming all 36 available units remain so. They would be more expensive to purchase, convert, and operate than anything from the 77W BCF program, but would also fill a niche for existing 748F operators.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:38 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.



I would not be optimistic about the 748Is. If demand does not come back sufficiently for LH —and I do not know what that is, but it is obvious that it will not be to pre-C19 levels—, then it is more than likely the 748Is are out. Once LH get rid of theirs, KE & CA will soon follow, assuming they have not already done so, as HMVs will instantly become significantly more expensive.

The good news is that an STC to convert to BCF models should not pose to great a difficulty, assuming all 36 available units remain so. They would be more expensive to purchase, convert, and operate than anything from the 77W BCF program, but would also fill a niche for existing 748F operators.


Even if the passenger ones don't remain for long, there's still the dedicated cargo frames, and given how the freighter market works it's possible they still have a long life ahead of them (after all, FedEx still has several ancient MD-10s still flying around).
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tomcat
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:41 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Lufthansa's CEO:

- "The only four-engine aircraft with a future is the Boeing 747-8."
- A340-600 and 747-400 retirement "will come soon"
- Decision to retire A380s will be made next week. If any are retired, that "probably would mean all".
- In talks with Airbus to speed up leased A350 orders that have the new business class product
- 3 MD-11s will stay until summer 2021.

https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/ ... 7309596673


Could it be that what allows the 747-8 to have a futur is their market value? I mean, even if they would become uneconomical to be operated as passenger aircraft, they would retain a significant value given their potential to be converted into a freighter (in spite that there is no 748 pax to freighter conversion available yet and that the worldwide 747-8i fleet is very limited). Or eventually, they could even retain some value as part donors while there is little prospect for the A380 and the A346 to turn into valuable part donors given that their global fleet is set to shrink or even disappear in a fairly short term.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:56 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.


It should be anticipated. 747-8i engines have a lot of parts in common with GEnX on 787, and 747-8i will be the new USA executive aircraft so USAF will need to keep the spares available along with freight operators. Both will see the production line shut down in a year or so. A380 has no freighter or military variant to help it long term. We have seen suggestions that EK really only needs 40 or so to keep its operation going. That may mean it will cannibalize a lot of frames it owns to keep the active fleet going, but what this would do is make it even harder for the supply chain to survive.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:44 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.



I would not be optimistic about the 748Is. If demand does not come back sufficiently for LH —and I do not know what that is, but it is obvious that it will not be to pre-C19 levels—, then it is more than likely the 748Is are out. Once LH get rid of theirs, KE & CA will soon follow, assuming they have not already done so, as HMVs will instantly become significantly more expensive.

The good news is that an STC to convert to BCF models should not pose to great a difficulty, assuming all 36 available units remain so. They would be more expensive to purchase, convert, and operate than anything from the 77W BCF program, but would also fill a niche for existing 748F operators.


Keep in mind that the 748 in LH's layout has a high proportion of premium cabin seats and therefore *less* total passenger capacity than the 744 and is therefore easier to fill (and break even) even with depressed demand. It also hauls massive amounts of cargo (unlike any of the Airbuses in their fleet). So there is a reason why LH is continuing to operate these at the present on various routes, while the other 4-holers are parked. I don't think these are going away anytime soon. And as pointed out, the 748 shares an engine with the 787 program, so engine maintenance has certain economies of scale that the A346 and A380 don't benefit from.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:51 pm

DUSdude wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
In all seriousness, it would be ironic if the 747-8 (whether in freighter versions or the few 747-8is produced) outlives the A380 in service. I wonder if it's possible if come the 2030s the only A380 operator left is Emirates (and maybe BA) while 747-8s remain with Lufthansa/Korean/Air China and freighter operators.



I would not be optimistic about the 748Is. If demand does not come back sufficiently for LH —and I do not know what that is, but it is obvious that it will not be to pre-C19 levels—, then it is more than likely the 748Is are out. Once LH get rid of theirs, KE & CA will soon follow, assuming they have not already done so, as HMVs will instantly become significantly more expensive.


Keep in mind that the 748 in LH's layout has a high proportion of premium cabin seats and therefore *less* total passenger capacity than the 744 and is therefore easier to fill (and break even) even with depressed demand. It also hauls massive amounts of cargo (unlike any of the Airbuses in their fleet). So there is a reason why LH is continuing to operate these at the present on various routes, while the other 4-holers are parked. I don't think these are going away anytime soon. And as pointed out, the 748 shares an engine with the 787 program, so engine maintenance has certain economies of scale that the A346 and A380 don't benefit from.


Being as premium heavy as LH's 747-8s are isn't a good thing if the corporate travel market collapses (as many here are predicting). In that situation then you either fly around with a lot of empty premium seats, pay lots of cash to convert the aircraft to a less premium layout (and risk instead flying around lots of empty economy seats) or use an A333/A343/A359 (or eventually a B787-9) instead.

It would be very interesting to know Lufthansa's internal dialog about what the best seating layout for their 777-9Xs would be. Must be like shooting into the dark.
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filipinoavgeek
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:04 am

Given that LH is now floating the idea of retiring all their A380s when they previously stated they were still planning to keep some of them (albeit only keeping them at Munich), does this mean that the A380s being all retired is now the more likely outcome?
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:40 am

All A380s, A340-300 and all 747-400 to be finally retired is what rumors claim. All 747-8 to stay. All A340-600 stored to be kept in reserve.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:22 pm

I think the A380s will not come back. This situation just keeps dragging on and the longer it does, the more money they are losing and the longer it will take to bounce back. I‘d say, very sadly, that their A380s are toast.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:44 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Given that LH is now floating the idea of retiring all their A380s when they previously stated they were still planning to keep some of them (albeit only keeping them at Munich), does this mean that the A380s being all retired is now the more likely outcome?

Yes. It seems the demand is just not there to expect the A380s to become profitable to operate any time soon. LH is committed to taking 777X in 2022 so there will be more capacity coming online later in the decade. It along with 747-8i and possibly some A340-600 will be the big people movers in LH's fleet.
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TC957
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Given that LH is now floating the idea of retiring all their A380s when they previously stated they were still planning to keep some of them (albeit only keeping them at Munich), does this mean that the A380s being all retired is now the more likely outcome?

Yes. It seems the demand is just not there to expect the A380s to become profitable to operate any time soon. LH is committed to taking 777X in 2022 so there will be more capacity coming online later in the decade. It along with 747-8i and possibly some A340-600 will be the big people movers in LH's fleet.

You forgot the A350's which along with the 748 will be the mainstay of the LH long-haul fleet. Latest news is that LH will indeed keep some, not all, A346's service-ready in case traffic pics up quicker than predicted.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:48 pm

TC957 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Given that LH is now floating the idea of retiring all their A380s when they previously stated they were still planning to keep some of them (albeit only keeping them at Munich), does this mean that the A380s being all retired is now the more likely outcome?

Yes. It seems the demand is just not there to expect the A380s to become profitable to operate any time soon. LH is committed to taking 777X in 2022 so there will be more capacity coming online later in the decade. It along with 747-8i and possibly some A340-600 will be the big people movers in LH's fleet.

You forgot the A350's which along with the 748 will be the mainstay of the LH long-haul fleet. Latest news is that LH will indeed keep some, not all, A346's service-ready in case traffic pics up quicker than predicted.

Fair enough. I didn't realize LH put so many seats on its A350-900. It'll be interesting to see the 777X seat map.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:15 pm

Noshow wrote:
All A380s, A340-300 and all 747-400 to be finally retired is what rumors claim. All 747-8 to stay. All A340-600 stored to be kept in reserve.


It sounded like they are keeping a handful of 340-300s and they have them loaded on 5 routes starting October or November can’t remember however things always change fast especially right now
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mzlin wrote:
I think your interpretative caution is unnecessary, Revelation. Bloomberg doesn't report these things unless they have solid evidence; in this case it's a controlled leak but not to gauge reaction; just to get people prepared so the event doesn't shock people and cause volatility to the stock price. Idea being to give the impression (true) that LH considers things deliberately, and there isn't any unexpected change in LH's market standing.

Bloomberg has broken other stories in aviation recently (I believe they were the first to break the story of the A380 shutdown, or the reengine not going forward, or Emirates not ordering more, can't remember which) and as far as I recall they are always correct.

It looks like your version of events is playing out according to the Spaeth tweets quoted above.

So we had an anonymous leak, now the CEO with a pre-announcement, then the board meeting next week.

Here we have LH conducting the press like an orchestra.

LH A380 fans should go into a prayer vigil, a divine intervention is needed.

I don’t think God is on their side with this particular one


I guess this whole Corona saga is basically God’s plot to get rid of the 380. She had a trip on it once and disliked the too quiet cabin.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:55 am

Noshow wrote:
All A380s, A340-300 and all 747-400 to be finally retired is what rumors claim. All 747-8 to stay. All A340-600 stored to be kept in reserve.

Are these the same rumors that were first reported by Bloomberg or are these new? And wasn't the fate of the A380 supposed to be decided on Monday at the earliest? Or does this mean their retirement (if it happens) had already been decided on?
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Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:56 am

This rumor has been all over the place for a while. Not sure when they officially report a decision. When will their board meet? It's likely decided whatever it is and just needs confirmation from above.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:02 am

Noshow wrote:
This rumor has been all over the place for a while. Not sure when they officially report a decision. When will their board meet? It's likely decided whatever it is and just needs confirmation from above.

According to https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/1305852924355055616 and other sources the board meeting will be on Monday. German news media like Der Spiegel seem to be reporting that the A380 is either all but confirmed to be going away or is very likely to do so, but I'm not sure if there's new information in German or if they're just repeating what was reported before.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:20 pm

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/de/newsroom/meldungen/lufthansa-beschliesst-drittes-paket-ihres-restrukturierungsprogramms.html
A380s (along with A340-600s) will be sent to long-term storage and are "taken out of planning" (according to Google Translate). I'm not sure what "taken out of planning" means exactly, but apparently reactivation will only depend on an "unexpected market recovery". I'm not actually sure if the A380s are merely stored indefinitely or retired, but the least we know is that they won't be flying anytime soon.

Update: Here's the English version: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html. There seems to be no news on their 747-400s at least in these press releases. The release does seem to suggest that the A380s aren't being permanently retired at least for now, but the "only be reactivated in the event of an unexpectedly rapid market recovery" wording makes me wonder if the chances of them coming back are almost zilch.
Last edited by filipinoavgeek on Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Opus99
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:24 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
https://www.lufthansagroup.com/de/newsroom/meldungen/lufthansa-beschliesst-drittes-paket-ihres-restrukturierungsprogramms.html
A380s (along with A340-600s) will be sent to long-term storage and are "taken out of planning" (according to Google Translate). I'm not sure what "taken out of planning" means exactly, but apparently reactivation will only depend on an "unexpected market recovery". I'm not actually sure if the A380s are merely stored indefinitely or retired, but the least we know is that they won't be flying anytime soon.

Update: Here's the English version: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html. There seems to be no news on their 747-400s at least in these press releases.

I believe they will be removed from the schedule completely.

So any planning going forward even post Covid does not include the 380
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:26 pm

Opus99 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
https://www.lufthansagroup.com/de/newsroom/meldungen/lufthansa-beschliesst-drittes-paket-ihres-restrukturierungsprogramms.html
A380s (along with A340-600s) will be sent to long-term storage and are "taken out of planning" (according to Google Translate). I'm not sure what "taken out of planning" means exactly, but apparently reactivation will only depend on an "unexpected market recovery". I'm not actually sure if the A380s are merely stored indefinitely or retired, but the least we know is that they won't be flying anytime soon.

Update: Here's the English version: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html. There seems to be no news on their 747-400s at least in these press releases.

I believe they will be removed from the schedule completely.

So any planning going forward even post Covid does not include the 380


So that means they're all but retired?
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:03 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
https://www.lufthansagroup.com/de/newsroom/meldungen/lufthansa-beschliesst-drittes-paket-ihres-restrukturierungsprogramms.html
A380s (along with A340-600s) will be sent to long-term storage and are "taken out of planning" (according to Google Translate). I'm not sure what "taken out of planning" means exactly, but apparently reactivation will only depend on an "unexpected market recovery". I'm not actually sure if the A380s are merely stored indefinitely or retired, but the least we know is that they won't be flying anytime soon.

Update: Here's the English version: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html. There seems to be no news on their 747-400s at least in these press releases.

I believe they will be removed from the schedule completely.

So any planning going forward even post Covid does not include the 380


So that means they're all but retired?

It means they’re in longterm storage. Not planned in for the foreseeable future, but can be reactivated at any time.
Same as SIA and Qantas did with theirs actually.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:05 pm

Terrier79 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I believe they will be removed from the schedule completely.

So any planning going forward even post Covid does not include the 380


So that means they're all but retired?

It means they’re in longterm storage. Not planned in for the foreseeable future, but can be reactivated at any time.
Same as SIA and Qantas did with theirs actually.


Does that mean there's a good chance they'll come back, or given LH's circumstances it's not that likely?
Also didn't SIA and Qantas give a timeframe for their A380s to return? That seems to be a better sign than this where they give no timeframe for a reactivation.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:10 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Terrier79 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:

So that means they're all but retired?

It means they’re in longterm storage. Not planned in for the foreseeable future, but can be reactivated at any time.
Same as SIA and Qantas did with theirs actually.


Does that mean there's a good chance they'll come back, or given LH's circumstances it's not that likely?
Also didn't SIA and Qantas give a timeframe for their A380s to return? That seems to be a better sign than this where they give no timeframe for a reactivation.


If flights and markets unexpectedly return really strong by next spring then those aircraft could return. However, most airlines aren’t predicting that to happen at all
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:50 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Update: Here's the English version: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html. There seems to be no news on their 747-400s at least in these press releases. The release does seem to suggest that the A380s aren't being permanently retired at least for now, but the "only be reactivated in the event of an unexpectedly rapid market recovery" wording makes me wonder if the chances of them coming back are almost zilch.

Since this is the fleet thread and since this is a press release we can and should quote a bit:

    The capacity outlook for the passenger airlines will be significantly revised; the previous assumption that an average production level of 50 percent of the previous year's value would be reached in the fourth quarter of the year no longer seems realistic. If the current trend continues, the available seat kilometres will probably only be in a range between 20 and 30 percent, compared to the previous year.

    The medium term fleet planning will be adjusted and currently foresees a permanent, Group-wide capacity reduction of 150 aircraft by the middle of this decade (starting point is the Group fleet including wet-leased aircraft).

    In addition to the fleet changes already communicated, the following decisions have been made: After six Airbus A380s were finally taken out of service in the spring, the remaining eight A380s and ten A340-600s, which were previously intended for flight service, will be transferred to long-term storage and removed from planning. These aircraft will only be reactivated in the event of an unexpectedly rapid market recovery. In addition, the remaining seven Airbus A340-600s will be permanently decommissioned.

    The previously announced personnel surplus amounting to 22,000 full-time positions will increase as a result of the decisions taken in regards to the third package within the restructuring program. The change in permanent staffing levels within flight operations will be further adjusted in regards to market development. The compensation and reduction of personnel surplus will be discussed with the responsible employee representatives.

There are more things in the release, these are the ones I chose based on relevance.

So, things are worse than earlier forecasted (I'd say significantly worse, they had projected 50% but are now projecting 20% to 30%) and will be parking aircraft and generating 'surplus' positions.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Does that mean there's a good chance they'll come back, or given LH's circumstances it's not that likely?
Also didn't SIA and Qantas give a timeframe for their A380s to return? That seems to be a better sign than this where they give no timeframe for a reactivation.

IIRC all QF said was no earlier than 2023. Not sure if SQ gave a timeline. LH clearly isn't offering a timeline.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:10 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:

Some more key points:
  • Net reduction of LH group fleet by 150 aircraft (compared to 100 aircraft in second restructuring package) until "mid-decade"
  • Expected ASK for Q4 2020 only 20 - 30 % of Q4 2019
  • Early retirement / long term storage of A346 and A380 fleets will result in a 1.1 billion € write down
  • Cash outflow of 400 million € per month throughout the winter season 2020/21. Positive cash flow targeted for summer 2021.
  • Additional redundancies beyond the 22,000 positions agreed on in the second restructuring package.

In the second package, LH limited the delivery of new aircraft to 80 until 2023. So overall retirements will be in the order of 230 old aircraft. I think the remaining 747-400 will remain as reserve units until the first 777-9 get delivered, much like the A346 and A380.

Terrier79 wrote:
It means they’re in longterm storage. Not planned in for the foreseeable future, but can be reactivated at any time.
Same as SIA and Qantas did with theirs actually.

"At any time" is perhaps a bit optimistic. LH has reactivated A340-600 from long term storage in the past, however this usually meant using them for an entire season. It makes no sense to maintain type ratings for an essentially retired sub-fleet, so LH will either have to pull from their remaining A340-300 pilot pool (same TR) or retrain pilots. Same for the A380.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Does that mean there's a good chance they'll come back, or given LH's circumstances it's not that likely?
Also didn't SIA and Qantas give a timeframe for their A380s to return? That seems to be a better sign than this where they give no timeframe for a reactivation.

It only makes sense to reactivate several aircraft; if LH finds themselves short by only one or two aircraft they can easily accelerate A350, 779 or 789 deliveries. So for both the A346 and A380 there need to be multiple large destinations. Pre-COVID A380 destinations were all in the US, China, Singapore and India (+BKK). With the olympic games 2021, Japan could also see a sufficient surge in demand.

However, all these countries have heavy entry restrictions in place or are considered high-risk areas for EU travellers. Without a massive improvement especially in the USA, there is no future for VLA in LH's fleet. The earliest is IMHO either the 2021 summer olympic games in Tokyo or the 2022 winter olympic games in Beijing, as short-term surge capacity.
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Just to illustrate how little long haul traffic there is, the load factor from Frankfurt to the USA in July 2020 was 36.1%, FRA-SIN was at 12.2% and FRA-NRT was only 8.5%. Meanwhile intra-EU traffic has been in the high 70s, some routes even 90+% load factor.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:24 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Cash outflow of 400 million € per month throughout the winter season 2020/21. Positive cash flow targeted for summer 2021.

Thanks for the great summary, it is much appreciated.

So it seems the plan is to shrink the company and hope demand grows enough by summer 2021 to get to net positive cash flow.

I am hopeful that happens, but if not, there will probably need to be more "adjustments".

Do we know if LH is still making payments on any of the now-parked A340-600 or A380 aircraft, or are they all paid off?
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:25 pm

WOW! So with the A380, A340-600 and potentially the 747-400 gone, their once iconic long haul fleet will be down to the A330, A350, 747-8, and a few A340-300s. Really speaks to the volumes of traffic lost due to COVID!
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:42 pm

Wow those loads to SIN and NRT were disastrous, who even operated those flights and at what frequency?
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:09 pm

Blerg wrote:
Wow those loads to SIN and NRT were disastrous, who even operated those flights and at what frequency?


LH, I think 3 times weekly, 340-300. Probably changed now
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:23 pm

777luver wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Wow those loads to SIN and NRT were disastrous, who even operated those flights and at what frequency?


LH, I think 3 times weekly, 340-300. Probably changed now


Could it be that these operated because of cargo demand?
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:06 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Just to illustrate how little long haul traffic there is, the load factor from Frankfurt to the USA in July 2020 was 36.1%, FRA-SIN was at 12.2% and FRA-NRT was only 8.5%. Meanwhile intra-EU traffic has been in the high 70s, some routes even 90+% load factor.

777luver wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Wow those loads to SIN and NRT were disastrous, who even operated those flights and at what frequency?

LH, I think 3 times weekly, 340-300. Probably changed now

Yeah, that's the thing with using load factors, you need to keep in mind the extra-EU flights were flown on smaller aircraft than pre-covid and with lower frequency too, yet the load factor was still "disasterous". The intra-EU load factor may seem high but if we accept "Expected ASK for Q4 2020 only 20 - 30 % of Q4 2019" we see seats flown must be well below norms for intra-EU flying too.
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
Do we know if LH is still making payments on any of the now-parked A340-600 or A380 aircraft, or are they all paid off?

Supervisory Board had to talk about these very fleets because these are still on the books.

Depreciation/useful life was changed (group wide) from twelve to 20 years around 2013/14; thus, only deliveries till/including 2001/02 remained neutral to that accounting transaction. It's an aircraft to aircraft situation.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:25 pm

LF for NRT is meh, LH flew the last passenger flight in 2016
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Just to illustrate how little long haul traffic there is, the load factor from Frankfurt to the USA in July 2020 was 36.1%, FRA-SIN was at 12.2% and FRA-NRT was only 8.5%. Meanwhile intra-EU traffic has been in the high 70s, some routes even 90+% load factor.

777luver wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Wow those loads to SIN and NRT were disastrous, who even operated those flights and at what frequency?

LH, I think 3 times weekly, 340-300. Probably changed now

Yeah, that's the thing with using load factors, you need to keep in mind the extra-EU flights were flown on smaller aircraft than pre-covid and with lower frequency too, yet the load factor was still "disasterous". The intra-EU load factor may seem high but if we accept "Expected ASK for Q4 2020 only 20 - 30 % of Q4 2019" we see seats flown must be well below norms for intra-EU flying too.

Blerg wrote:
Could it be that these operated because of cargo demand?

Yes, most likely. Overall load factor including passengers and cargo was 60.0% on FRA-NRT and 43.1% on FRA-SIN (strictly based on available payload mass, i. e. it is possible that cargo load factor by volume was higher or lower). These numbers include pure cargo flights and are outbound only (can't find inbound load factors, i. e. SIN-FRA or NRT-FRA). However, overall outbound passenger numbers are slightly higher than inbound for July, and cargo is approximately equal in both directions though again slightly more outbound.

In absolute terms, 905 tons of cargo were flown to SIN on 30 flights, or 30 tons per flight. 2,876 tons of cargo were flown to NRT on 61 flights, or 47 tons per flight.

For comparison, FRA-PEK had zero passengers and a (cargo mass) load factor or 57.3% across 90 flights, for a total of 4,089 tons / 45 tons per flight.

Source is https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branc ... sprg239702 [German] btw.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:02 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Yes, most likely. Overall load factor including passengers and cargo was 60.0% on FRA-NRT and 43.1% on FRA-SIN (strictly based on available payload mass, i. e. it is possible that cargo load factor by volume was higher or lower). These numbers include pure cargo flights and are outbound only (can't find inbound load factors, i. e. SIN-FRA or NRT-FRA). However, overall outbound passenger numbers are slightly higher than inbound for July, and cargo is approximately equal in both directions though again slightly more outbound.

In absolute terms, 905 tons of cargo were flown to SIN on 30 flights, or 30 tons per flight. 2,876 tons of cargo were flown to NRT on 61 flights, or 47 tons per flight.

For comparison, FRA-PEK had zero passengers and a (cargo mass) load factor or 57.3% across 90 flights, for a total of 4,089 tons / 45 tons per flight.

Source is https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branc ... sprg239702 [German] btw.

So your claim is: an A343 carries 30t/0,431 = 69,6t available payload mass FRA>SIN? :bigthumbsup:

To avoid further confusion, please consider using seat factor or load factor as applicable.
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:30 am

Any news on LH narrow body fleet? In particular are there any plans for accelerated retirement of A320 ceo and A319? How about the regionals, are both EMB-190 and CRJ-900 to stay?
 
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Re: Lufthansa Group Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:39 am

787X30 wrote:
So your claim is: an A343 carries 30t/0,431 = 69,6t available payload mass FRA>SIN? :bigthumbsup:

To avoid further confusion, please consider using seat factor or load factor as applicable.

I didn't come up with those numbers. The formula given in the report for "total load factor" is: (number_of_passengers / 10 + cargo_carried_in_tons) / (total_payload_capacity_in_tons)

The number of available seats and the payload capacity of a given flight are filed by the airline. From what I can tell, payload capacity is MZFW - OEW, though the precise method is up to the airline.

For FRA-SIN, 436 passengers were carried in total. At 12.2% LF, there would have been only 120 seats per flight; in other words at least some of those flights were filed as pure cargo flights (probably either LH or SQ didn't file any passenger capacity, both served this route 3x weekly). It's also possible that there were further dedicated cargo flights but it's a bit difficult for me to pull up the complete schedule for July.

Upon closer inspection, I'm pretty sure that NRT was served for cargo only (or almost only). There were only 149 passengers for the entirety of July. Meanwhile Japan overall saw 2,600 visitors and a load factor of 25.7%. Did LH, NH or JL serve FRA-HND in July? The numbers would indicate a daily passenger service to HND, double daily cargo to NRT and 1/week passenger to NRT. (96 flights to Japan - 61 flights to NRT = ~ 31 flights to HND + some charters).

The statistics sadly combine scheduled and charter traffic, passenger, cargo and business aircraft all in one number. It's difficult to compare and determine individual airline performance without knowing the exact schedule.
 
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LH keeps 744 but 380's status in limbo

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:47 am

Looks as if the 744 will continue at LH for the time being. However, the remaining 8 380s are being stored with no immediate plans to return to the schedule.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa ... ini-chance
 
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Re: LH keeps 744 but 380's status in limbo

Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:10 am

744's have ~100 less seats to fill but also no First. Is the operating cash cost of the A380-800 that much higher than the 744?
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mxaxai
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Re: LH keeps 744 but 380's status in limbo

Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:37 am

This has been discussed at viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438313, though feel free to open a new topic if you think that this is a significant enough news.
 
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Re: LH keeps 744 but 380's status in limbo

Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:44 am

BawliBooch wrote:
744's have ~100 less seats to fill but also no First. Is the operating cash cost of the A380-800 that much higher than the 744?


747 cargo capabilities?

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