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MIflyer12
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Re: Why have DL's A320-200s not been retired?

Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:03 pm

n7371f wrote:
NW was hell bent on maintaining its operational excellence despite firing thousands of AMFA mechanics. Yes, Doug S okayed cut backs on deep aircraft cleaning. Delta focused on branding, like always, and making sure every plane had the same seat cover - while its service reliability went to hell.


'Excellence' and Northwest don't go in the same sentence without a negation. It was a miserable airline. In sixteen years (1995 to end of ops in 2010) of ratings by the American Customer Satisfaction Index (which originated at the University of Michigan, btw), NW beat the industry median just once.

https://www.theacsi.org/index.php?optio ... i=Airlines
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:34 pm

ehaase wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if Delta defers the start of deliveries of 321neos and remaining 339's and 359's (other than needed to replace 777's) until 2024 to 2025. 321neos would then start replacing 757's, 320's and 738's. Don't know about the remaining 321ceo's still on order.

I would have to imagine defferals have been done. A321/330NEOs and A350s plus prior cancellations.

The A321CEOs are too far along and Airbus will push for delivery. Now that would be an interesting negotiation to watch...

Lightsaber
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jagraham
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Re: Any idea of the fate of Delta's 738's?

Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:08 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
Recently, we've been seeing Mad Dogs, A320-200s, and 737-700s narrowbodies being pulled or otherwise downsized. But one thing I'm skeptical about is the 737-800s. They are for the most part 16+ years old, and with a bunch of A321s, and A220s on order, plus the new 737-900ERs, I am pretty questionable about the 738. But then again, they have commonality with the new 739s, and before COVID, I've heard that DL is keeping the 738s till 30 years old.

Any idea?


The seven 767-300ERs DL withdrew from service are the youngest 767s they have. Obviously they are going to sell them, and did not see much operational advantage versus the increased sale price for younger 767s. So it's not always about age.

Besides, 16 years is not that old. Generally only the ME3 and certain Asian carriers get rid of planes that young. And while there is a small market for freighter conversion, it is not that big yet and the freight operators aren't shedding 757s in any large numbers. So it behooves DL to keep those planes, parked or not, rather than get new ones when the time comes.

There is also the fact that DL is not buying parts (for the most part) right now, and so planes with time before next required maintenance visit are valuable from a cash flow perspective.
 
n515cr
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:45 pm

3609 ferried MCI-SBD yesterday, presumed fleet exit. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n309de
3606 scheduled to ferry MWH-SBD today, also presumed fleet exit. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n306dq
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:00 pm

Has the actual tail number of A320 and B763 retirements been determined? Someone said the 763s were the youngest ones?

How many aircraft are still left in MCI?
Looks like based on planespotters, they may be down to 10-15 aircraft. Mostly 739s remaining.
 
n515cr
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:03 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Has the actual tail number of A320 and B763 retirements been determined? Someone said the 763s were the youngest ones?

Haven't seen anything announced other than what was stated in the earnings call/etc.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
How many aircraft are still left in MCI?
Looks like based on planespotters, they may be down to 10-15 aircraft. Mostly 739s remaining.

12 by my count:
1x 73W (3610)
2x 320 (3217, 3219)
5x 739 (3828-31, 3833)
1x 321 (3061)
1x 752 (651)
2x 763 (171, 1605)
 
maddogjt8d
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:58 pm

I wonder if the 7 newest 767's everyone is referring to are the 76T fleet, ships 1607-1613. These were the birds with increased MTOW that used to go the middle-east long hauls from JFK to AMM/CAI/TLV, before the NWA merger progressed and cross-fleeting with the A330's really got underway. It would make sense to sell these for max value since they have extra MTOW over the rest of the fleet and the more updated CF6 engines with FADEC, so are probably more valuable ships where DL doesn't need the capability anymore with the A330 fleet.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:15 pm

maddogjt8d wrote:
I wonder if the 7 newest 767's everyone is referring to are the 76T fleet, ships 1607-1613. These were the birds with increased MTOW that used to go the middle-east long hauls from JFK to AMM/CAI/TLV, before the NWA merger progressed and cross-fleeting with the A330's really got underway. It would make sense to sell these for max value since they have extra MTOW over the rest of the fleet and the more updated CF6 engines with FADEC, so are probably more valuable ships where DL doesn't need the capability anymore with the A330 fleet.


I believe you're correct. As recently as a few years ago they were flying routes like SEA-PVG, LAX-HND, and ATL-LOS, all of which have since been taken over by A330s/777s/A350s. For S20, DL was originally planning on flying them out of HNL to Japan and the mainland, so it seems they don't need their unique range/payload capability anymore anyway.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:03 pm

Looks like 2 B763s scheduled tomorrow on LAX-SBD. Assume this is for storage?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:22 pm

FSDan wrote:
maddogjt8d wrote:
I wonder if the 7 newest 767's everyone is referring to are the 76T fleet, ships 1607-1613. These were the birds with increased MTOW that used to go the middle-east long hauls from JFK to AMM/CAI/TLV, before the NWA merger progressed and cross-fleeting with the A330's really got underway. It would make sense to sell these for max value since they have extra MTOW over the rest of the fleet and the more updated CF6 engines with FADEC, so are probably more valuable ships where DL doesn't need the capability anymore with the A330 fleet.


I believe you're correct. As recently as a few years ago they were flying routes like SEA-PVG, LAX-HND, and ATL-LOS, all of which have since been taken over by A330s/777s/A350s. For S20, DL was originally planning on flying them out of HNL to Japan and the mainland, so it seems they don't need their unique range/payload capability anymore anyway.


The counter-argument to that is the sub-fleet of seven has a useful range capability without the seat count of a 332/333. IMHO DL is going to be flying 767s for some years to come. But this is the narrowbody thread so I won't belabor the point.
 
n515cr
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:01 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Looks like 2 B763s scheduled tomorrow on LAX-SBD. Assume this is for storage?

TBC. These are apparently 76Z's, not L's or T's.
1506 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9965
1504 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9966
 
TigerFlyer
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Re: Why have DL's A320-200s not been retired?

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:42 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
'Excellence' and Northwest don't go in the same sentence without a negation. It was a miserable airline. In sixteen years (1995 to end of ops in 2010) of ratings by the American Customer Satisfaction Index (which originated at the University of Michigan, btw), NW beat the industry median just once.

https://www.theacsi.org/index.php?optio ... i=Airlines


That was by design. NW was a scrappy, well run carrier that punched way above its weight. NW focused on "owning" its hub markets. The business model was to offer an A+ schedule and B- frills. If you lived in DTW, MEM, or MSP you were a NW customer with overwhelming service options. We had you. Anything spent of soft product was a waste of money. It just lowered margins. It was an operationally excellent and safe airline.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:42 pm

n515cr wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Looks like 2 B763s scheduled tomorrow on LAX-SBD. Assume this is for storage?

TBC. These are apparently 76Z's, not L's or T's.
1506 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9965
1504 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9966


Both are 76Zs but part of the 6 ex-Gulf Air 763ER fleet with the second boarding door and one overwing emergency exit only. Two others in that sub-fleet (1501 and 1503) had already retired pre-Covid.
 
777Mech
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:08 pm

n515cr wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Looks like 2 B763s scheduled tomorrow on LAX-SBD. Assume this is for storage?

TBC. These are apparently 76Z's, not L's or T's.
1506 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9965
1504 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9966

Rumor has it CAM has purchased these birds from DL.
 
ocracoke
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:33 am

panamair wrote:
n515cr wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Looks like 2 B763s scheduled tomorrow on LAX-SBD. Assume this is for storage?

TBC. These are apparently 76Z's, not L's or T's.
1506 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9965
1504 - https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl9966


Both are 76Zs but part of the 6 ex-Gulf Air 763ER fleet with the second boarding door and one overwing emergency exit only. Two others in that sub-fleet (1501 and 1503) had already retired pre-Covid.



Not that it matters much, but I believe it was 5 from Gulf Air, and one (ship 1521) that was originally built for Continental, which rejected it during bankruptcy. Came to DL via Asiana.

There was a small discussion on this a few years back:

viewtopic.php?t=1384953
 
panamair
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:46 am

ocracoke wrote:
panamair wrote:
n515cr wrote:


Both are 76Zs but part of the 6 ex-Gulf Air 763ER fleet with the second boarding door and one overwing emergency exit only. Two others in that sub-fleet (1501 and 1503) had already retired pre-Covid.



Not that it matters much, but I believe it was 5 from Gulf Air, and one (ship 1521) that was originally built for Continental, which rejected it during bankruptcy. Came to DL via Asiana.

There was a small discussion on this a few years back:

viewtopic.php?t=1384953


Actually, it was 6 from GF and 1 from OZ. Ships 1501-1506 are GF and 1521 as you said is the OZ bird.
 
n515cr
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:14 pm

 
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EstherLouise
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Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:27 pm

Any word when the Boeing 717's will be flying again? From my observations, none are flying. Correct me if I'm wrong.
712 722 732 734 737 738 741 742 744 752 762 772 A310 DC91 DC93 DC94 DC1030 DC1040 F100 MD82 MD83
 
Ishrion
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:30 pm

 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:34 pm

We have 16 here parked at ILN. No word yet as to when they will be returning to use.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:52 pm

Approximately 45 of the 91 B717 aircraft are in-service.
All of the active fleet is currently flying out of ATL, doing out-and-back flying primarily back-filling a lot of the routes that were previously flown by the MD88s.

Approximately half of the fleet is in storage, primarily at ILN, BHM, and VCV

As a part of the pilot base displacement and realignment in the May-June timeframe, what was officially communicated was the following:
The plan is to an active fleet of 30-45 717s through 2022 with pilot base in ATL and DTW. The MSP and NYC 717 pilot bases will close.

The 717s are leased (all but 3) with various lease expiration dates in the years ahead. The 717s also face an airworthiness directive that would create all of the seats to be replaced by the end of 2022. There was also to be a number of engines coming due for overhauls over the next few years.

As of now, the only thing has been what was said above with the intent to fly then through 2022. There has been nothing to indicate anything either way beyond that yet.
Last edited by PSU.DTW.SCE on Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
NLINK
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:53 pm

There is a good chance that the 717 will be retired fairly soon, at least in the next quarter or two with the announcement. There are multiple moving parts for this to happen.
 
pythoniels
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:04 pm

Would be sad to see the 717 leaving the fleet. I've not had the chance to fly a 717/MD8X/MD90/DC9, but to me, DL 717s as among HA 717s are one of the best looking aircraft out there at the moment!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:07 pm

....kind what I'm thinking that we will likely hear an announcement of the fate of the B717 fleet. I suspect we will see an announcement by the end of the year, with them probably all being gone sometime in late 2021 or 2022.

Like said, lots of moving parts:
- Revised delivery schedule with Airbus on the A220
- Any further idea of what Spring / Summer 2021 flying forecast may look like
- Negotiations with Boeing on the lease situation
- The retraining plan of the pilots
- How much green time is left on the fleet

I don't really see any scenarios at this point of the 717 fleet surviving beyond Summer/Fall 2022, if not sometime in 2021.
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:26 pm

pythoniels wrote:
Would be sad to see the 717 leaving the fleet. I've not had the chance to fly a 717/MD8X/MD90/DC9, but to me, DL 717s as among HA 717s are one of the best looking aircraft out there at the moment!


My home airport is MSP and I've have the opportunity to fly in the 717 a few times. They're hot rods. Beautiful, quiet, powerful. That 2-3 seating is very appealing.
712 722 732 734 737 738 741 742 744 752 762 772 A310 DC91 DC93 DC94 DC1030 DC1040 F100 MD82 MD83
 
Antarius
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:32 pm

NLINK wrote:
There is a good chance that the 717 will be retired fairly soon, at least in the next quarter or two with the announcement. There are multiple moving parts for this to happen.


I could see HA making a beeline for them as soon as financially capable. Or DL may store them for future.

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
wjcandee
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:53 pm

Air travel is going to rebound hard once there is a working vaccine, and maybe even sooner as many people realize that this thing, while terrible, tends to spread mostly among people who don't follow basic precautions with precision and zeal. There is no reason a diligent 30-year-old can't take a business trip somewhere, safely.

No reason for DL to spread CAPX out there on new aircraft during the downturn, when there's a fleet of inexpensively-leased 717s available that are the right size for certain routes. Also, the fact that the BR715 is maintained in-house gives it a lot of control over engine overhaul expense -- something it did not have with the MD90.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:59 pm

Antarius wrote:
NLINK wrote:
There is a good chance that the 717 will be retired fairly soon, at least in the next quarter or two with the announcement. There are multiple moving parts for this to happen.


I could see HA making a beeline for them as soon as financially capable. Or DL may store them for future.

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.

There should be the start of a recovery by 2022. Seats are cheaper than new aircraft.

While HA will, for the right price, buy 717s, there is a fundamental problem. Without DL flying 717s, the type has no economy of scale. The HA fleet isn't large enough to keep vendors rebuilding parts.

Recall, Aerospace requires rebuilding parts within drawing and then performing the ATP (acceptance test procedure) as well as filling out lots of paperv(digital now) and having it on hand for audits. That is why batches must be done every 15 months (keep in the know) and it doesn't cost less to do under 25, so 25 parts is the minimum rebuild quantity.

So if Delta does replace the 717, that leaves only Qantas and HA. Qantas was already looking at the A220.

The only unique capabilities of the 717 are the quick engine turn time and the high limit of Validity (110,000 cycles, 150,000 hours). HA could buy M90, A221, or E2-175/190 with some small penalties in opperational efficiency.

Lightsaber
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BusBlitz
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:00 pm

I've always thought the 717s were very beautiful and I read this article: https://onemileatatime.com/delta-717/
 
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flybynight
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:03 pm

Are they still flying out of SEA?
Heia Norge!
 
777Mech
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:12 pm

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 717 will be done by the end of the summer schedule next year.
 
gdavis003
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:10 pm

Yes they are. I just booked BHM-ATL-CHS for the end of the month, and both flights are on 717-200s
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Antarius wrote:
NLINK wrote:
There is a good chance that the 717 will be retired fairly soon, at least in the next quarter or two with the announcement. There are multiple moving parts for this to happen.


I could see HA making a beeline for them as soon as financially capable. Or DL may store them for future.

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.

There should be the start of a recovery by 2022. Seats are cheaper than new aircraft.

While HA will, for the right price, buy 717s, there is a fundamental problem. Without DL flying 717s, the type has no economy of scale. The HA fleet isn't large enough to keep vendors rebuilding parts.

Recall, Aerospace requires rebuilding parts within drawing and then performing the ATP (acceptance test procedure) as well as filling out lots of paperv(digital now) and having it on hand for audits. That is why batches must be done every 15 months (keep in the know) and it doesn't cost less to do under 25, so 25 parts is the minimum rebuild quantity.

So if Delta does replace the 717, that leaves only Qantas and HA. Qantas was already looking at the A220.

The only unique capabilities of the 717 are the quick engine turn time and the high limit of Validity (110,000 cycles, 150,000 hours). HA could buy M90, A221, or E2-175/190 with some small penalties in opperational efficiency.

Lightsaber

It’s possible they stay and put seats in, but with two cockpits (777 and MD) recently gone, and niche types (737-7) going I see the 717 as another axe to fall to simply and make a more streamlined fleet. A319s can manage any of the heavier routes that might have filled a 717, especially in light of social distancing however long it takes, or to consolidate frequencies. A220 will be the future of small narrowbody.
 
micstatic
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:33 pm

Antarius wrote:
NLINK wrote:

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.


The A220 can handle anything the 717 can. And more.
S340,DH8,AT7,CR2/7,E135/45/170/190,319,320,717,732,733,734,735,737,738,744,752,762,763,764,772,M80,M90
 
jagraham
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:42 pm

The A220 will eventually replace the 717. The issue is capex. That will keep the 717 around until at least 2025. Beyond that it will be a question of how many 110 seaters DL needs. And it should be noted that the next batch of A220s are A223s, which replace 737-700s and A319s.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:42 pm

As I said upthread - all of the active ~45 717s are flying from ATL only doing out-and-back turns primarily on routes that were previously flown by MD88s.
DL pulled the 717s out of the west coast in 2019, moving them back east. Pre-COVID had B717 pilot bases in ATL, DTW, MSP, NYC. Now, the ATL base remains, DTW is to remain, but there is currently no 717 flying out of there and won't be until sometime after they do the massive displacements/retraining/furlough new world order.\

DL never stopped flying them during the pandemic, but they have also not pulled any frames out of storage unlike pretty much every other narrowbody fleet (A319, A320, A321, B738, B739, B752, B753).


Here is all of my opinions/thoughts on the 717 situation, so feel free to shoot holes in them:

Yes, there are going to be capex issues down the road. That in some cases may extend the longevity of certain fleet types, but the flip side of that is going to how much fixed & variable cost and cash-flow needs to be taken out of the business.

Unlike the other narrowbody fleet types which they can be highly flexible on how they store/reactive/retire the B717 has a lot of "moving pieces" and is forcing some big decisions to keep flying beyond the next ~2 years. This includes HMV/overhauls (a few frames were already in storage prior to COVID that had come due), engine overhauls (pre-COVID were to be in-house, but now with all the workforce reduction actions will they still want to do this?), seat replacement ($100M+ CAPEX spend), renewal of leases on what are effectively aging/end-of-life orphan aircraft that would further limit flexibility in the twilight of their career).

If the 717s were like the NW DC-9 situation of owned, fully depreciated aircraft, not facing a major AD, with good part/MRO capability then this would probably be a non-issue at this point and they'd stay at cheap, variable capacity and be reactivated as things recover. If COVID had happened without the big A220 order already placed, then they would have a been outlook of better longevity. The leases, unless Boeing decides to fire-sale them or create some truly unique clauses and arrangements put a real burden on using them as flex-capacity.

Also considering, there are still a lot A319/A320, B738, and B752 to reactivate, some of which are either going to be up against HMVs or really not needed for years. They could fly the green-time/cycles on the 717 for the next ~24 months and reactive the other frames in other fleet types as needed down the road. (2022+).

I suspect Airbus is going to really reluctant to significantly deffer A220s too much. The production rate and amount of the backlog destined for DL really makes what they do have significant impact on that program. I suspect DL may get relief on orders in other models (particularly A321NEO and A350) in exchange for taking A220s. A220s are really the most versatile of any of the future orders that DL has with Airbus and provide capacity up and down the narrowbody spectrum and route profile.

With what DL is operating 717s on currently in the COVID area much was flown by MD88/90 prior. That could easily be covered by burning cycles on the A320 fleet on all that ATL flying.

Things are going to be different.

Its a big hill to climb in my opinion to see the 717s staying beyond 2022 when DL is really striving to cut structural costs, increase efficiencies, and increase flexibility in the business.

Who knows, then again who knows.

Here is fun hail-mary, hot takes:
Boeing fire-sales the 717s to DL as the end of leases for like $1 M / frame, just to get out of the future obligation of having to re-lease the fleet. This is in exchange part of a broader deal for a MAX order in like 2025+. DL keeps a majority of the fleet and sells some to HA down the road.

OR

Airbus buys-out the remaining lease terms of the 717s just so DL gets rid of them in 2022 on condition of resuming deliveries of A220s per plan.

Anyways, reading the road on some of the prior earnings calls....the 717s are in the crosshairs to be removed sooner rather than later.
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:14 pm

B73W on its way to retirement KMWH-KSBD
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KMWH/KSBD
 
Antarius
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:16 pm

micstatic wrote:
Antarius wrote:
NLINK wrote:

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.


The A220 can handle anything the 717 can. And more.


I guess HA, QF and DL are just dumb for holding on to their 717s huh?

Sure the a220 is a capable plane, but it is expensive too. Burning capex when you're hemorrhaging money isn't smart.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
Antarius
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Re: Delta's B712's

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Antarius wrote:
NLINK wrote:
There is a good chance that the 717 will be retired fairly soon, at least in the next quarter or two with the announcement. There are multiple moving parts for this to happen.


I could see HA making a beeline for them as soon as financially capable. Or DL may store them for future.

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.

There should be the start of a recovery by 2022. Seats are cheaper than new aircraft.

While HA will, for the right price, buy 717s, there is a fundamental problem. Without DL flying 717s, the type has no economy of scale. The HA fleet isn't large enough to keep vendors rebuilding parts.

Recall, Aerospace requires rebuilding parts within drawing and then performing the ATP (acceptance test procedure) as well as filling out lots of paperv(digital now) and having it on hand for audits. That is why batches must be done every 15 months (keep in the know) and it doesn't cost less to do under 25, so 25 parts is the minimum rebuild quantity.

So if Delta does replace the 717, that leaves only Qantas and HA. Qantas was already looking at the A220.

The only unique capabilities of the 717 are the quick engine turn time and the high limit of Validity (110,000 cycles, 150,000 hours). HA could buy M90, A221, or E2-175/190 with some small penalties in opperational efficiency.

Lightsaber


Didn't QF also want to buy more? I recall every operator trying their best to get as many frames as they could, which leads me to believe the type fits certain use cases very well. Even if DL does retire them, wouldn't HA and QF buy them for parts?

Do we know whether the A220 can handle the short turnaround? Same Q for the E2 or M90.
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:53 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
As I said upthread - all of the active ~45 717s are flying from ATL only doing out-and-back turns primarily on routes that were previously flown by MD88s.
DL pulled the 717s out of the west coast in 2019, moving them back east. Pre-COVID had B717 pilot bases in ATL, DTW, MSP, NYC. Now, the ATL base remains, DTW is to remain, but there is currently no 717 flying out of there and won't be until sometime after they do the massive displacements/retraining/furlough new world order.\

DL never stopped flying them during the pandemic, but they have also not pulled any frames out of storage unlike pretty much every other narrowbody fleet (A319, A320, A321, B738, B739, B752, B753).


Here is all of my opinions/thoughts on the 717 situation, so feel free to shoot holes in them:

Yes, there are going to be capex issues down the road. That in some cases may extend the longevity of certain fleet types, but the flip side of that is going to how much fixed & variable cost and cash-flow needs to be taken out of the business.

Unlike the other narrowbody fleet types which they can be highly flexible on how they store/reactive/retire the B717 has a lot of "moving pieces" and is forcing some big decisions to keep flying beyond the next ~2 years. This includes HMV/overhauls (a few frames were already in storage prior to COVID that had come due), engine overhauls (pre-COVID were to be in-house, but now with all the workforce reduction actions will they still want to do this?), seat replacement ($100M+ CAPEX spend), renewal of leases on what are effectively aging/end-of-life orphan aircraft that would further limit flexibility in the twilight of their career).

If the 717s were like the NW DC-9 situation of owned, fully depreciated aircraft, not facing a major AD, with good part/MRO capability then this would probably be a non-issue at this point and they'd stay at cheap, variable capacity and be reactivated as things recover. If COVID had happened without the big A220 order already placed, then they would have a been outlook of better longevity. The leases, unless Boeing decides to fire-sale them or create some truly unique clauses and arrangements put a real burden on using them as flex-capacity.

Also considering, there are still a lot A319/A320, B738, and B752 to reactivate, some of which are either going to be up against HMVs or really not needed for years. They could fly the green-time/cycles on the 717 for the next ~24 months and reactive the other frames in other fleet types as needed down the road. (2022+).

I suspect Airbus is going to really reluctant to significantly deffer A220s too much. The production rate and amount of the backlog destined for DL really makes what they do have significant impact on that program. I suspect DL may get relief on orders in other models (particularly A321NEO and A350) in exchange for taking A220s. A220s are really the most versatile of any of the future orders that DL has with Airbus and provide capacity up and down the narrowbody spectrum and route profile.

With what DL is operating 717s on currently in the COVID area much was flown by MD88/90 prior. That could easily be covered by burning cycles on the A320 fleet on all that ATL flying.

Things are going to be different.

Its a big hill to climb in my opinion to see the 717s staying beyond 2022 when DL is really striving to cut structural costs, increase efficiencies, and increase flexibility in the business.

Who knows, then again who knows.

Here is fun hail-mary, hot takes:
Boeing fire-sales the 717s to DL as the end of leases for like $1 M / frame, just to get out of the future obligation of having to re-lease the fleet. This is in exchange part of a broader deal for a MAX order in like 2025+. DL keeps a majority of the fleet and sells some to HA down the road.

OR

Airbus buys-out the remaining lease terms of the 717s just so DL gets rid of them in 2022 on condition of resuming deliveries of A220s per plan.

Anyways, reading the road on some of the prior earnings calls....the 717s are in the crosshairs to be removed sooner rather than later.

Your "hail Mary hot takes" could be the answer. Or it could be business as usual.

The 717s are going to require a good chunk of cash if kept. About the cost of 5 A221s...

If Delta retires the 717s, they must come up with a plan to replace capacity. Sadly, I look at the drop in current used aircraft pricing and what will happen with the 737NG once the MAX returns to service... and I see anything goes.

It will take 18 to 24 months to replace the 717 fleet. So Delta must come to a decision this year. The negotiations will be brutal and facinating. Anything could happen. With A320/A319/73G/717 replacement on the table, we could see a big move. Or not. DL must survive first.

Lightsaber
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Phosphorus
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Re: Delta's B712's

Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:25 am

Antarius wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Antarius wrote:

I could see HA making a beeline for them as soon as financially capable. Or DL may store them for future.

717 is a unique bird with no available counterpart.

There should be the start of a recovery by 2022. Seats are cheaper than new aircraft.

While HA will, for the right price, buy 717s, there is a fundamental problem. Without DL flying 717s, the type has no economy of scale. The HA fleet isn't large enough to keep vendors rebuilding parts.

Recall, Aerospace requires rebuilding parts within drawing and then performing the ATP (acceptance test procedure) as well as filling out lots of paperv(digital now) and having it on hand for audits. That is why batches must be done every 15 months (keep in the know) and it doesn't cost less to do under 25, so 25 parts is the minimum rebuild quantity.

So if Delta does replace the 717, that leaves only Qantas and HA. Qantas was already looking at the A220.

The only unique capabilities of the 717 are the quick engine turn time and the high limit of Validity (110,000 cycles, 150,000 hours). HA could buy M90, A221, or E2-175/190 with some small penalties in opperational efficiency.

Lightsaber


Didn't QF also want to buy more? I recall every operator trying their best to get as many frames as they could, which leads me to believe the type fits certain use cases very well. Even if DL does retire them, wouldn't HA and QF buy them for parts?

Do we know whether the A220 can handle the short turnaround? Same Q for the E2 or M90.


HA wanted more, and Qantas/Cobham wanted more, indeed. Turkmenistan Airlines parked theirs, and sold (at least some) to be scrapped. Pre-COVID, Volotea was gradually replacing theirs with Airbuses.

Both HA and QF would probably pick up some DL birds, once they become available. (My hunch is HA would probably pick up some spare frames, too, for the future. And HA could swap theirs, higher-cycle, exposed to salt-water spray frames, for fresher ones). The question remains -- whether the two of them will be able to sustain the supply chain eco-system, to keep the fleet viable, longer-term.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Here is fun hail-mary, hot takes:
Boeing fire-sales the 717s to DL as the end of leases for like $1 M / frame, just to get out of the future obligation of having to re-lease the fleet. This is in exchange part of a broader deal for a MAX order in like 2025+. DL keeps a majority of the fleet and sells some to HA down the road.

OR

Airbus buys-out the remaining lease terms of the 717s just so DL gets rid of them in 2022 on condition of resuming deliveries of A220s per plan.

Anyways, reading the road on some of the prior earnings calls....the 717s are in the crosshairs to be removed sooner rather than later.

Your "hail Mary hot takes" could be the answer. Or it could be business as usual.

The 717s are going to require a good chunk of cash if kept. About the cost of 5 A221s...


Hail-mary #1 seems the more probable to me. Maybe Boeing could place a few 717s with QF or HA but it wouldn't begin to cover a meaningful fraction of the 88 leased frames.

Five A220s don't replace 91 717s. I expect DL (and everybody else major in the U.S. market, even WN) to be capital constrained for the next ~5 years. The idea of A320s subbing for 717s is interesting. How do those compare on trip costs?
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 256
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Here is fun hail-mary, hot takes:
Boeing fire-sales the 717s to DL as the end of leases for like $1 M / frame, just to get out of the future obligation of having to re-lease the fleet. This is in exchange part of a broader deal for a MAX order in like 2025+. DL keeps a majority of the fleet and sells some to HA down the road.

OR

Airbus buys-out the remaining lease terms of the 717s just so DL gets rid of them in 2022 on condition of resuming deliveries of A220s per plan.

Anyways, reading the road on some of the prior earnings calls....the 717s are in the crosshairs to be removed sooner rather than later.

Your "hail Mary hot takes" could be the answer. Or it could be business as usual.

The 717s are going to require a good chunk of cash if kept. About the cost of 5 A221s...


Hail-mary #1 seems the more probable to me. Maybe Boeing could place a few 717s with QF or HA but it wouldn't begin to cover a meaningful fraction of the 88 leased frames.

Five A220s don't replace 91 717s. I expect DL (and everybody else major in the U.S. market, even WN) to be capital constrained for the next ~5 years. The idea of A320s subbing for 717s is interesting. How do those compare on trip costs?

A319 might be able to sub in for the 717 with frequency changes, combined with RJs. Could probably use Buses to replace the 717 capacity for a bit, and regrow with A220s on the upswing. You ditch a niche fleet that likely brings unique costs, and bring in a consolidation down to a core of 4 NB fleets until 2030 or so. 40 something 717s won’t be a fleet long for this world. It’ll either grow up from there, or head down to zero IMHO. My guess is things stay the same for the next two years, with maybe whatever deliveries can’t be deferred slowly replacing the old and unused fleets.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:46 pm

IMO: Future Delta Fleet by end of decade, echoing Mr. Ed Bastian

A220 (200 replaces 717 / 300 replaces A319 and thinner route A320 / 500 replaces A320 thinner 757
A321 (replaces 757 / NEO replaces 757)
A330NEO (replaces some 767, 777)
A350 (replaces 777)
737-800/900

Long-Range aircraft lower-capacity potentially needed (options: A321XLR, 757X, 767X, 787 or an Airbus derivative, perhaps A330 combi)
Future: 737-MAX if proven successful and demand rebounds through the roof and to keep things swell with Boeing.
 
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:35 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Your "hail Mary hot takes" could be the answer. Or it could be business as usual.

The 717s are going to require a good chunk of cash if kept. About the cost of 5 A221s...


Hail-mary #1 seems the more probable to me. Maybe Boeing could place a few 717s with QF or HA but it wouldn't begin to cover a meaningful fraction of the 88 leased frames.

Five A220s don't replace 91 717s. I expect DL (and everybody else major in the U.S. market, even WN) to be capital constrained for the next ~5 years. The idea of A320s subbing for 717s is interesting. How do those compare on trip costs?

A319 might be able to sub in for the 717 with frequency changes, combined with RJs. Could probably use Buses to replace the 717 capacity for a bit, and regrow with A220s on the upswing. You ditch a niche fleet that likely brings unique costs, and bring in a consolidation down to a core of 4 NB fleets until 2030 or so. 40 something 717s won’t be a fleet long for this world. It’ll either grow up from there, or head down to zero IMHO. My guess is things stay the same for the next two years, with maybe whatever deliveries can’t be deferred slowly replacing the old and unused fleets.

I think what makes DL's so interesting to discuss is their strategy of holding onto obsolete aircraft allows them an amazing flexibility in their going forward decision. A decision, I personally believe, that should be held off as long as possible as the terms for DL must be improving. Due to the lead time for seats or inducting new aircraft, I believe DL will decide on the fate of the 717 by end of 1Q2020, at the latest end 1H2020. That doesn't mean it will be public. This is my estimate on, in this down economy with 'hungry' vendors, how quickly DL could either get seats or a new fleet.

DL could buy used A320CEOs or 737NG. Pricing for those will improve post MAX return to service. So wait. Airlines have just started returning narrowbodies to the leasing companies. I believe there will be quite a few coming up, in particular from Indian airlines committed to NEO or MAX orders.

The airframes would also like orders. We discuss Boeing, but the reality is, Airbus is overproducing the NEO. Their customers want relief. At this time, the NEO slots could easily be freed up if DL wanted to buy and the two sides could come to terms. Or Airbus could deliver A220s. Eventually DL will start receiving them and a larger backlog would help the type. I also wouldn't rule out the E2-195 as a 717 replacement (DL is the master on low cost introduction of new fleets).

Since Delta could do just about anything for the 717 replacement (including refurbish these low utilization aircraft), we'll have to wait. The Delta executives must wait as pricing must be improving with time. With so many options, Delta should put out feelers and negotiate, then negotiate again, and keep on negotiating.

I've been thinking of the CAPEX on new seats, it will be lower in this environment. The vendors must be begging for more business.

So we can debate here quite a bit, but it will be the numbers, in particular cash burn, that determines if:
1. 717s are parked (as WN did for a while)

2. 717s receive new seats
3. Used A320CEO or 737NG fill the capacity (there will be plenty)
4. Or order new A220/A320NEO/MAX/E2-195 as the replacement.

I wouldn't want to be negotiating against DL. They will do something and have absolutely nothing to lose, for they could shrink more.

Of course, if not a GTF, BR700, or CFM-56, engine service contracts would need to be discussed.

For used aircraft pricing, see the aircraft lease values thread (the older one has many links on how used aircraft values have fallen):
viewtopic.php?t=1449067
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991

Aircraft are still being produced and zero new aircraft are required for growth. So unless every new delivered aircraft results in a scrapping of an older aircraft, the market will need until a minimum 2023 to have used aircraft sell at a more traditional price (fraction of new based off wear and tear). So the next say 15 months is the best time for an airline to negotiate.

Lightsaber
Lightsaber
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rrbsztk
Posts: 183
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I think what makes DL's so interesting to discuss is their strategy of holding onto obsolete aircraft allows them an amazing flexibility in their going forward decision. A decision, I personally believe, that should be held off as long as possible as the terms for DL must be improving. Due to the lead time for seats or inducting new aircraft, I believe DL will decide on the fate of the 717 by end of 1Q2020, at the latest end 1H2020. That doesn't mean it will be public.
Lightsaber


Just wanted to clarify, are you saying you think delta has already decided and hasn't shared their decision? Or was that a typo and you meant 2021?
Thanks
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:46 pm

There's just something about how Savvy the folks in ATL negotiate.... play the big OEM's of each other up to the last minute-buy Some orphans planes and used them to perfection and have other wondering why they didn't think of that.....UA & AA seem to be pushing ahead with expansion and other moves while DAL appears to be stuck in mud playing the waiting game-should be interesting to watch who made the right decisions and comes out on the other side with major upward trajectory

lightsaber wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Hail-mary #1 seems the more probable to me. Maybe Boeing could place a few 717s with QF or HA but it wouldn't begin to cover a meaningful fraction of the 88 leased frames.

Five A220s don't replace 91 717s. I expect DL (and everybody else major in the U.S. market, even WN) to be capital constrained for the next ~5 years. The idea of A320s subbing for 717s is interesting. How do those compare on trip costs?

A319 might be able to sub in for the 717 with frequency changes, combined with RJs. Could probably use Buses to replace the 717 capacity for a bit, and regrow with A220s on the upswing. You ditch a niche fleet that likely brings unique costs, and bring in a consolidation down to a core of 4 NB fleets until 2030 or so. 40 something 717s won’t be a fleet long for this world. It’ll either grow up from there, or head down to zero IMHO. My guess is things stay the same for the next two years, with maybe whatever deliveries can’t be deferred slowly replacing the old and unused fleets.

I think what makes DL's so interesting to discuss is their strategy of holding onto obsolete aircraft allows them an amazing flexibility in their going forward decision. A decision, I personally believe, that should be held off as long as possible as the terms for DL must be improving. Due to the lead time for seats or inducting new aircraft, I believe DL will decide on the fate of the 717 by end of 1Q2020, at the latest end 1H2020. That doesn't mean it will be public. This is my estimate on, in this down economy with 'hungry' vendors, how quickly DL could either get seats or a new fleet.

DL could buy used A320CEOs or 737NG. Pricing for those will improve post MAX return to service. So wait. Airlines have just started returning narrowbodies to the leasing companies. I believe there will be quite a few coming up, in particular from Indian airlines committed to NEO or MAX orders.

The airframes would also like orders. We discuss Boeing, but the reality is, Airbus is overproducing the NEO. Their customers want relief. At this time, the NEO slots could easily be freed up if DL wanted to buy and the two sides could come to terms. Or Airbus could deliver A220s. Eventually DL will start receiving them and a larger backlog would help the type. I also wouldn't rule out the E2-195 as a 717 replacement (DL is the master on low cost introduction of new fleets).

Since Delta could do just about anything for the 717 replacement (including refurbish these low utilization aircraft), we'll have to wait. The Delta executives must wait as pricing must be improving with time. With so many options, Delta should put out feelers and negotiate, then negotiate again, and keep on negotiating.

I've been thinking of the CAPEX on new seats, it will be lower in this environment. The vendors must be begging for more business.

So we can debate here quite a bit, but it will be the numbers, in particular cash burn, that determines if:
1. 717s are parked (as WN did for a while)

2. 717s receive new seats
3. Used A320CEO or 737NG fill the capacity (there will be plenty)
4. Or order new A220/A320NEO/MAX/E2-195 as the replacement.

I wouldn't want to be negotiating against DL. They will do something and have absolutely nothing to lose, for they could shrink more.

Of course, if not a GTF, BR700, or CFM-56, engine service contracts would need to be discussed.

For used aircraft pricing, see the aircraft lease values thread (the older one has many links on how used aircraft values have fallen):
viewtopic.php?t=1449067
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991

Aircraft are still being produced and zero new aircraft are required for growth. So unless every new delivered aircraft results in a scrapping of an older aircraft, the market will need until a minimum 2023 to have used aircraft sell at a more traditional price (fraction of new based off wear and tear). So the next say 15 months is the best time for an airline to negotiate.

Lightsaber
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jb1087xna
Posts: 493
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:28 am

Sorry if this has been noted before (couldn't find it anyway), but looks like DL has posted the seat map of the A223, at least on the app. Pretty generous Comfort+ layout with 6 rows / 30 seats in this configuration given F remains at 3 rows / 12 seats.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:52 am

rrbsztk wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I think what makes DL's so interesting to discuss is their strategy of holding onto obsolete aircraft allows them an amazing flexibility in their going forward decision. A decision, I personally believe, that should be held off as long as possible as the terms for DL must be improving. Due to the lead time for seats or inducting new aircraft, I believe DL will decide on the fate of the 717 by end of 1Q2020, at the latest end 1H2020. That doesn't mean it will be public.
Lightsaber


Just wanted to clarify, are you saying you think delta has already decided and hasn't shared their decision? Or was that a typo and you meant 2021?
Thanks

Oops, typo... I meant 2021. There needs to be 18 months (minimum) to impliment the decision.
Winter is coming.
 
n515cr
Posts: 1808
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:49 am

Re: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:12 pm

3610 ferrying to SBD tonight: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n310de
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