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Ishrion
Topic Author
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Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:54 pm

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/rumour ... ardingArea

According to a source which is yet to be incorrect, a strong rumour is floating around that British Airways will indeed launch long haul flights from Manchester, but in a bit of a biting blow – the rumour is that the only reason they are doing so, is because they don’t want Virgin to look good…


Thoughts on this? Where would they launch? BOS or JFK to counter DL/VS?
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:00 pm

Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
jamsco99
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:03 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


Never used it. Have used Stansted which is owned my MAG and stansted is without doubt the worst London airport aimed at the lowest common denominator of flyer
 
tonystan
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:06 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


MAN is a hideous airport to use. The worst security experience of any airport in Europe in my opinion. I avoid it at all costs preferring to take the train or even drive from London.

Heathrow has transformed itself immensely in the last 11 years. It’s almost a pleasure to use and transit through.
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:07 pm

JFK by 777 which can be rotated out of Heathrow on a W pattern is the only thing that’ll work at Manchester unless they optimise schedules to make it a reliever hub for Heathrow. All the inbound long haul traffic at Manchester have feed at their origins, so it’s not fair to say BA don’t care about Manchester, it’s just that they’re at a huge disadvantage compared to foreign carriers flying in because they can only attract O&D traffic.
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.

Hahahahahahahaha! Brilliant!
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
BOACJrJet
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:16 pm

Shouldn't that be re-launch ? I have flown BOAC/BA tatl into MAN on VC10, L1011, 757, 767 - I have connected from MAN both domestic and European destinations on BA. Big disappointment when BA dropped MAN-JFK. They also had MAN-LAX at one time. Winter months there was a JFK-MAN-GLA L1011 service.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:32 pm

Remember the famous LAX-LHR B744 engine shutdown right after take off and they decided to continue the flight? It got as far as MAN
 
sevenair
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:48 pm

I don't see much point. It hasn't worked for them in the past. Or, rather they figured there's more money to be made in London. They have reliever hubs in Dublin and Madrid. I'm not sure MAN can support another TATL operator relying on O&D. But good luck to them.
 
KingB123
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:56 pm

I could see BA launching NYC and other US routes, maybe some seasonal Caribbean destinations? Going east, i really do not see any destinations BA could add, Maybe DXB? ISB? DEL? BOM? PEK?

Is AA the only One World TATL carrier serving Manchester? And thats from PHL right? Maybe if BA do come to MAN it would bolster up the OW operations.

Also MAN is now Virgin's turf and they sure wont be happy!
King B
 
TUGMASTER
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:02 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


That’s so funny.....
MAN is a Poohole of an airport for the pax experience, especially the security ...
What a joke
 
jamsco99
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:02 am

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:07 pm

Wheres the aircraft coming from ?

Dont they have slots at Gatwick that they lease out as they dont have enough aircraft?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:19 pm

So BA is starting to feel the pinch of loosing passengers to other airlines at the airports outside of London.

To my opinion, I have encountered few airports that are worse than LHR. Having to fly through London I prefer anything else, Gatwick, Luton, Stanstead, City. I have not been to Southend, but there was never a connection to KEF.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:23 pm

Urgh. Go away BA, we don’t need you operating spoiler services at a loss for a couple of seasons and then disappearing and leaving us with nothing, again. Virgin seems to be making a genuine go at a long haul network from MAN and that is who needs to be supported for the benefit of the folks who live up north.
 
tphuang
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:26 pm

Looked at ba finances vs that of vs. ba has plenty of resources to wack the yields of a competitor to stop them from gaining traction.

It did the same against dy. Why not against vs getting out of line.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:28 pm

Ishrion wrote:
https://www.godsavethepoints.com/rumour-british-airways-manchester-long-haul-flights/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=BoardingArea

According to a source which is yet to be incorrect, a strong rumour is floating around that British Airways will indeed launch long haul flights from Manchester, but in a bit of a biting blow – the rumour is that the only reason they are doing so, is because they don’t want Virgin to look good…


Thoughts on this? Where would they launch? BOS or JFK to counter DL/VS?


According to a source which is yet to be incorrect...

Oh, that is a feeble, weasley statement. 'I've never talked to him before so he's never been wrong in predictions to me.'

Playing games of 'we can lose more money that you' may not be a winning strategy. Starting a service, driving out the only competitor, and cutting it when they're gone is pretty good evidence of anti-competitive behavior. Does the UK have competition law outside of EU requirements, and does it vigorously enforce that body of law?
 
VanBosch
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:29 pm

Maybe Level would be the carrier not BA?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:31 pm

Having a look at Manchester airport on Wikipedia, it has quite a decent size, It is # 20 in Europe and #3 in the UK, with more than 28 million passengers.
I think it astonishing that posters are astonished, that BA wants to test out the potential there. If it is pointed out, that it did not work in the past, one has to look at MAN having grown a lot, since BA had a long haul operation there.
 
bhxalex
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:33 pm

If someone could enlighten me as to where the aircraft is coming from that would be great...

With 777 densification, 787 engine issues and 747 retirements, there’s no room for expansion. I think they’re gaining 4 77Ws for 3 772s, aside from that there’s no surplus of widebody aircraft planned any time soon.

The only solution would be leasing or allocating an existing frame away from London, I doubt giving up a slot at Gatwick or especially Heathrow is worth it to find a frame.

I won’t say never but there’s too many factors that indicate this will not happen soon.

I’m not sure what the obsession with replacing TCXs capacity is as they bled money on many of the routes, even in peak summer one could often see sub £280 rtn fares a couple of weeks out to all of their US destinations bar MCO.

If MAN-USA was such an underserved goldmine we would have seen Norwegian enter the fray as they’re seemingly struggling to find places to send their 787s, they would be better placed than BA who’s planes are far too premium for the MAN market, especially if talking about replacing the low yield capacity lost from TCX.
Last edited by bhxalex on Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:53 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:37 pm

There is some merit to the story Imo.

VS is growing at MAN, and not just in the 'pure leisure' that they had run in the past. BA may be feeling some degree of pinch from this, of those they previously used the shuttles or travelled over land to LHR. Then there is Aer Lingus to which MAN is a huge contributer to their TATL flights, again, the growth of VS will hurt them. VS have stated intention to grow further so BA won't be sitting back and doing nothing about it. Regardless of what the armchair CEOs on here think regarding yield etc, North West England is an important market for IAG.

Nothing wrong with a hugely profitable company reassigning a few assets somewhere else to 'stamp some authority' on the upstart VS.

Also, using the argument 'it didn't work in the past' is always the most null and void argument you can find. Things change.

The MAN catchment now has some top tech industries, petrochemical (wirral), amazon regional HQ, booking.com HQ coming soon, HP and Microsoft offices, BBC, ITV and more. It has a growing population and soon rumoured to have some political functions too.

Then there are the lower costs at BA. More efficient aircraft, lower cost crew contracts etc.

Therefore, it has a better chance of working now than it ever has in its past, so, we can't just write this one off as a no go. Clearly VS has seen market potential, as do other airlines, so why not BA.

In terms of MAN, I agree T3 is dire, but, when BA move to T2, the user experience has the potential to improve ten fold and more.
 
bhxalex
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
Looked at ba finances vs that of vs. ba has plenty of resources to wack the yields of a competitor to stop them from gaining traction.

It did the same against dy. Why not against vs getting out of line.


Plenty of resources such as a no spare widebody aircraft for the foreseeable future...
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:06 pm

BOACJrJet wrote:
Shouldn't that be re-launch ? I have flown BOAC/BA tatl into MAN on VC10, L1011, 757, 767 - I have connected from MAN both domestic and European destinations on BA. Big disappointment when BA dropped MAN-JFK. They also had MAN-LAX at one time. Winter months there was a JFK-MAN-GLA L1011 service.


Yes, BA flew JFK-MAN for years, most recently before it was axed, on a 767-300ER, I think. They also for a short time had JFK-GLA and I seem to recall BHX too, but I could be wrong on BHX. AA had JFK-MAN and JFK-BHX and axed them both a few years ago. It was the second iteration of JFK-MAN for AA. When AA started flying JFK-LHR in 1992, it added a JFK-MAN route, on a 762ER as well but was quickly phased out. AA had ORD-MAN for years and for a time, ORD-BHX and ORD-GLA.
 
iberiadc852
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:06 pm

User001 wrote:
There is some merit to the story Imo.

VS is growing at MAN, and not just in the 'pure leisure' that they had run in the past. BA may be feeling some degree of pinch from this, of those they previously used the shuttles or travelled over land to LHR. Then there is Aer Lingus to which MAN is a huge contributer to their TATL flights, again, the growth of VS will hurt them. VS have stated intention to grow further so BA won't be sitting back and doing nothing about it. Regardless of what the armchair CEOs on here think regarding yield etc, North West England is an important market for IAG.

Nothing wrong with a hugely profitable company reassigning a few assets somewhere else to 'stamp some authority' on the upstart VS.

Also, using the argument 'it didn't work in the past' is always the most null and void argument you can find. Things change.

The MAN catchment now has some top tech industries, petrochemical (wirral), amazon regional HQ, booking.com HQ coming soon, HP and Microsoft offices, BBC, ITV and more. It has a growing population and soon rumoured to have some political functions too.

Then there are the lower costs at BA. More efficient aircraft, lower cost crew contracts etc.

Therefore, it has a better chance of working now than it ever has in its past, so, we can't just write this one off as a no go. Clearly VS has seen market potential, as do other airlines, so why not BA.

In terms of MAN, I agree T3 is dire, but, when BA move to T2, the user experience has the potential to improve ten fold and more.


I can only agree with this post.
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
TC957
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:12 pm

BA use T3 at MAN which quite frankly is a dump.
 
iberiadc852
Posts: 302
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:16 pm

bhxalex wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looked at ba finances vs that of vs. ba has plenty of resources to wack the yields of a competitor to stop them from gaining traction.

It did the same against dy. Why not against vs getting out of line.


Plenty of resources such as a no spare widebody aircraft for the foreseeable future...


They are still receiving several a350 and 781 in the next future. And further on, several 779
Does your post mean they won't retire WBs next?
Otherwise, they could opt not retire some, and instead taking them to MAN, (unless ALL of them are unserviceable, which I think is unlikely).

On the other hand, out of curiosity. If needed, could IAG deviate some A321XLR orders from IB or EI to BA, if they think they serve the group better there?
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:17 pm

TC957 wrote:
BA use T3 at MAN which quite frankly is a dump.


BA is being moved to T2 with a new terraces lounge to boot, so, the experience will get better. And let's face it with T3, it can only Get better!
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:21 pm

VanBosch wrote:
Maybe Level would be the carrier not BA?


I’ll share my thoughts on the OP in due course, but if the objective of BA / IAG is to limit VS’s horizon at MAN, the Level brand would almost certainly not achieve that.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:31 pm

The only North American destinations I view as a possibility include LAX, PHL, MIA, JFK/EWR (British airways likes EWR, hence their open skies service and now Level)
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:32 pm

With the ME3 filling up most days and other airlines doing well out of MAN its a market BA has ignored for far too long. I shall be flying MAN to Singapore but could I get the SIA flight? No so I'm off with EK.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:34 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
The only North American destinations I view as a possibility include MCO, LAX, PHL, MIA, JFK/EWR (British airways likes EWR, hence their open skies service and now Level)
 
BOACJrJet
Posts: 2
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:35 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
BOACJrJet wrote:
Shouldn't that be re-launch ? I have flown BOAC/BA tatl into MAN on VC10, L1011, 757, 767 - I have connected from MAN both domestic and European destinations on BA. Big disappointment when BA dropped MAN-JFK. They also had MAN-LAX at one time. Winter months there was a JFK-MAN-GLA L1011 service.


Yes, BA flew JFK-MAN for years, most recently before it was axed, on a 767-300ER, I think. They also for a short time had JFK-GLA and I seem to recall BHX too, but I could be wrong on BHX. AA had JFK-MAN and JFK-BHX and axed them both a few years ago. It was the second iteration of JFK-MAN for AA. When AA started flying JFK-LHR in 1992, it added a JFK-MAN route, on a 762ER as well but was quickly phased out. AA had ORD-MAN for years and for a time, ORD-BHX and ORD-GLA.


Yea -at one time you could go into the BA Terminal at JFK and see GLA, MAN, BHX, LHR and LGW all listed on the departure board. I have flown all those flights over the years. The JFK-MAN 767 carried the name "Chatham Historic Dockyard" and went back on forth on that route for something like 15 years. I believe it was primarily the same aircraft unless there was a maintenance substitution. My parents once had their return MAN-JFK leg departure delayed while they did a quick engine change. My dad spoke to to the FO and asked if they needed to perform a ground test of the replacement engine. FO said, "No, we just change 'em and go". I really miss that JFK-MAN 767
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:39 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
The only North American destinations I view as a possibility include LAX, PHL, MIA, JFK/EWR (British airways likes EWR, hence their open skies service and now Level)


I could see JFK/IAD/MIA/LAX/ORD and YYZ as the main contenders. Reason for those choices are that JFK/IAD big US destinations (BA sends the A380 to IAD for example), the next 3 destinations are big AA hubs for feed and YYZ a decent sized market and also could head off Westjet should they launch (WS looking at joining the DL/VS joint venture too).

Depending on the method, I could also see CUN/LAS/BGI/MCO looked at, as BA holidays routes if that was what BA was going after.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10111
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:39 pm

Ishrion wrote:
https://www.godsavethepoints.com/rumour-british-airways-manchester-long-haul-flights/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=BoardingArea

According to a source which is yet to be incorrect, a strong rumour is floating around that British Airways will indeed launch long haul flights from Manchester, but in a bit of a biting blow – the rumour is that the only reason they are doing so, is because they don’t want Virgin to look good…


Thoughts on this? Where would they launch? BOS or JFK to counter DL/VS?


Sure if they want to lose money by the bucket load. BOS at least was less than great in 2019 at only 3x weekly the LF wasn't all that good. To the extent that in 2020 DL is taking over the route with the smaller 752. i can't imagine that there is enough demand for 2 airlines on this route. JFK might be a different story.
 
bhxalex
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:56 pm

iberiadc852 wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looked at ba finances vs that of vs. ba has plenty of resources to wack the yields of a competitor to stop them from gaining traction.

It did the same against dy. Why not against vs getting out of line.


Plenty of resources such as a no spare widebody aircraft for the foreseeable future...


They are still receiving several a350 and 781 in the next future. And further on, several 779
Does your post mean they won't retire WBs next?
Otherwise, they could opt not retire some, and instead taking them to MAN, (unless ALL of them are unserviceable, which I think is unlikely).

On the other hand, out of curiosity. If needed, could IAG deviate some A321XLR orders from IB or EI to BA, if they think they serve the group better there?


All incoming aircraft are replacing old ones bar a surplus of 1 77W, which isn’t 100% a certain surplus.

I mean they could allocate MAN the knackered 744s and 772s leaving the fleet, but they’d hardly be competitive against VS’s offering both in terms of onboard service and CASM so it’s a double edged sword to proceed that way.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:05 pm

How about MAN to One World U.S. hubs: JFK, MIA and (seasonal) DFW?
And then, there are MCO and LAS.
MAN- LATAM hub GRU, even high season, thrice weekly only, IMO, there might not be that big of a demand.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1383
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:10 pm

The rumours seem to come and go periodically. Whilst I think BA may have some success out of MAN if they were to try again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

airbazar wrote:
Sure if they want to lose money by the bucket load. BOS at least was less than great in 2019 at only 3x weekly the LF wasn't all that good. To the extent that in 2020 DL is taking over the route with the smaller 752. i can't imagine that there is enough demand for 2 airlines on this route. JFK might be a different story.


JFK/EWR probably, BOS no. There’s also ORD that’s missing since AA gave up on the route, which frankly came across as being run down by virtue of the aircraft used and moving it to seasonal.

mjoelnir wrote:
Having a look at Manchester airport on Wikipedia, it has quite a decent size, It is # 20 in Europe and #3 in the UK, with more than 28 million passengers.
I think it astonishing that posters are astonished, that BA wants to test out the potential there. If it is pointed out, that it did not work in the past, one has to look at MAN having grown a lot, since BA had a long haul operation there.


Yep. MAN is a different proposition now compared to a decade or so ago and the unavoidable fact is other airlines are making a success of it and probably pinching passengers who may have otherwise flown with BA via LHR.

tphuang wrote:
Looked at ba finances vs that of vs. ba has plenty of resources to wack the yields of a competitor to stop them from gaining traction.

It did the same against dy. Why not against vs getting out of line.


It depends if BA are desperate enough to throw resources at a market which it has expressed little interest in for some time. Norwegian was different as they were competing out of London, so BA had some interest in defending its position and market share, even if it meant launching routes such as OAK and FLL purely to drive them out.

Armodeen wrote:
Urgh. Go away BA, we don’t need you operating spoiler services at a loss for a couple of seasons and then disappearing and leaving us with nothing, again. Virgin seems to be making a genuine go at a long haul network from MAN and that is who needs to be supported for the benefit of the folks who live up north.


I would be inclined to agree with this statement, though with the investment VS are making in their MAN offering (Clubhouse, V-Room refurbishment, routes and frequencies) combined with their plans for Flybe, I can’t see them simply disappearing anytime soon unless the economy weakens substantially and I’m sure they will respond suitably to any new competition be it from their old foes or somebody else.
 
BA777FO
Posts: 570
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:38 pm

bhxalex wrote:
If someone could enlighten me as to where the aircraft is coming from that would be great...


There are 5 A350s, 6 787-10s and 4 77Ws being delivered in 2020 for a total of 15 deliveries. Seven 747s are leaving the fleet in 2020 and 3 77As leave in 2020 for a net 10 widebody reduction. Overall increase of 5 widebody aircraft. You can count on a reduction of about 1.5 to 2 airframes for 777 Club Suite reconfiguration per month so even accounting for that BA should be up 3 airframes.

bhxalex wrote:
I’m not sure what the obsession with replacing TCXs capacity is as they bled money on many of the routes, even in peak summer one could often see sub £280 rtn fares a couple of weeks out to all of their US destinations bar MCO.

If MAN-USA was such an underserved goldmine we would have seen Norwegian enter the fray as they’re seemingly struggling to find places to send their 787s, they would be better placed than BA who’s planes are far too premium for the MAN market, especially if talking about replacing the low yield capacity lost from TCX.


Agreed - MAN isn't the goldmine some people outside of the south east would like it to be or believe it is.

It has been asked about a LGW-MCO-MAN-MCO-LGW W-pattern in the past which has a lot of potential in the summer months. However, BA has always resisted citing too much operational risk with just one or two airframes doing the W and possibly having an aircraft stuck in Manchester when it's needed at LGW. Given the past answers regarding W patterns and complexity I think, ultimately, this rumour has no legs to it. BA still has plenty of ex-Monarch slots to convert to long haul flights and that'll be where there's likely to be more growth.

Regarding the suggestion that BA is "feeling the pinch" from other airlines operating outside of the south east, I'm sorry, but that's nonsense. With the LGW 777 densification, capacity has increased by ~20% but yet yields still increased by ~2%. That kind of yield performance on the back of such a large capacity increase is incredibly impressive. Load factors are very high on many routes, I won't even bother taking the family on ID90s out of LGW anymore, they'd be lucky to get even jumpseats!
 
User001
Posts: 1064
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:45 pm

Agreed - MAN isn't the goldmine some people outside of the south east would like it to be or believe it is.


I don't think anyone has stated its a goldmine, but equally it isn't the yield waste ground that some would have you believe either.

I don't think this rumour has anything to do with TCX either, it's about fighting off the growing threat of VS which if its allowed to grow at MAN along With VS connect, will then suddenly have a rather large asset portfolio to really bring a fight to LHR of R3 ever sees daylight.

Fight something in its infancy then you don't have to fight it when it has rather large muscles to flex. I feel some are ignoring the long game and bigger picture here.
 
bhxalex
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:04 pm

Surely AA as part of the BA/AA Tatl joint venture would be better placed to add service.

ORD, DFW, LAX, BOS, MIA, CLT and JFK are already hubs or have existing AA metal on Tatl services, so wouldn’t using AA to open these services eliminate the cost of opening a base at MAN?

Aside from maybe Washington, Seattle and San Francisco there’s little that could work off p2p traffic which isn’t already a hub/base for AA or served adequately by other carriers, MCO withstanding as that market is large enough for more than VS and BY at SFB.
Last edited by bhxalex on Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:06 pm

Ultimately I don't think BA/IAG perceive a Virgin/Flybe tie-up in Manchester to be anything that would have "large muscles to flex" against its operation at Heathrow. Half a dozen longhaul destinations from Manchester isn't going to scare BA into throwing resources and money at something in Manchester that won't deliver the same ROIC as added capacity at LHR or LGW.
 
David_itl
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:12 pm

bhxalex wrote:
II’m not sure what the obsession with replacing TCXs capacity is as they bled money on many of the routes, even in peak summer one could often see sub £280 rtn fares a couple of weeks out to all of their US destinations bar MCO.


Is this the same TCX that was on course to make £115 million profit from what the BBC reported? Airlines that bleed money om most routes tend to make a small profit overall at best.

airbazar wrote:
Sure if they want to lose money by the bucket load. BOS at least was less than great in 2019 at only 3x weekly the LF wasn't all that good. To the extent that in 2020 DL is taking over the route with the smaller 752. .


Yes, that's right. Going from 3 weekly A330 to daily 757. For such a "bad" route to get 30% to 40% increase capacity indicates that the beancounters in the joint venture must have seen some merit in the service.

The general anti-MAN rhetoric that pervade this forum is astonishing. MAN is doing something about the terminal. It shouldn't be overlooked that T3 was originally designed for BA and it's partners for it to act as a hub (and never forget that BA paid 10% of the construction cost!). Consequently having 10+ Ryanair 737s based using that terminal, it should come as too much of a surprise that some consider the experience there as poor.


As for the view regarding MAN long-haul and BA., please look at exactly what VS now has at MAN. 7 based aircraft. A feeder airline that will now be devoted to feeding their routes instead of sharing it with TCX, Proper lounge facilities being built. . And what does BA have at MAN: a shrinking shuttle frequency. Shrinking passenger numbers to LHR. An almost year-rouind network of mostly leisure services that means aircraft are actually earning some money when LCY closes at the weekend. So why wouldn't BA start to look at MAN as I'd imagine that are plenty of frequent flyer that would now be thinking that the BA option of MAN-LHR-Europe to get a nice freebie of a MAN-LHR-longhaul may not be as good as the option of "VS" doing MAN-Europe to get a nice freebie of MAN-longhaul.

Yes BA tried long-haul at MAN They didn't want it to succeed and to that end, they implemented the strategy perfectly by having a 767 based that got the nickname registration of G-TECH. Then encouraging the MAN premium flyers to ignore the local non-stop option in favour of the Heathrow connection. Oh,not forgetting flying on at the same days and times as competing airlines who were operating a couple of times a week on the "thin" routes instead of flying on different days

For potential routes I have seen it rumoured that VS may going to 12 weekly to JFK. (what's this, backfilling TCX capacity, better not let some posters know \will have a mental breakdown!). So it seems sort of logical for them to make a go of it. Next up would be MCO & BGI in the summer with MIA, MCO & BGI in the winter Type, why not the 777s? Yes, there's an element of filling J class but the volume of passengers in economy should still see a reasonable rate of return for them.
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:21 pm

BA777FO wrote:
Ultimately I don't think BA/IAG perceive a Virgin/Flybe tie-up in Manchester to be anything that would have "large muscles to flex" against its operation at Heathrow. Half a dozen longhaul destinations from Manchester isn't going to scare BA into throwing resources and money at something in Manchester that won't deliver the same ROIC as added capacity at LHR or LGW.


No, I think you missed my point on this.

VS could quietly grow the MAN operation away from direct competition with BA. Both long haul and short haul. They have already stated they want to be a 2nd flag carrier, so that’s eventually taking a battle direct to BA. Whether we think the strategy has merit is irrelevant on these forums, because end of the day, that’s VS aims and BA would be rather unwise to simply ignore that.

If VS then get to a point of say 30-40 aircraft overall at MAN, and then if R3 gets opened, they have a 30-40 strong fleet they can move down and park right on the lawn at LHR to compete head on with BA almost instantaneously. That’s the ‘flexing muscle’ I was referring to. With DL also behind them, they could grow to be a formidable foe. Not ‘bring down BA’ levels, but enough to cause a significant impact.

However, BA have the chance now to *potentially* stop that situation happening, and fight VS into submission while it’s in its infancy, and if that means the battle has to be taken to MAN, perhaps that’s what a plan could entail.

Obviously the long game isn’t a great situation for MAN, but, business has always been ruthless.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:54 pm

User001 wrote:
If VS then get to a point of say 30-40 aircraft overall at MAN, and then if R3 gets opened, they have a 30-40 strong fleet they can move down and park right on the lawn at LHR to compete head on with BA almost instantaneously. That’s the ‘flexing muscle’ I was referring to. With DL also behind them, they could grow to be a formidable foe. Not ‘bring down BA’ levels, but enough to cause a significant impact.

However, BA have the chance now to *potentially* stop that situation happening, and fight VS into submission while it’s in its infancy, and if that means the battle has to be taken to MAN, perhaps that’s what a plan could entail.


I don't think a 30-40 airframe fleet (with anything approaching a significant number of widebody frames) would be anything other than money-bleeding for Virgin. I think BA will be content to watch Virgin dig their own hole. If 30-40 aircraft is ¾ Flybe aircraft, again, I don't think BA will be too bothered by a couple of dozen Dash-8s suddenly appearing. This threat from Virgin isn't really all that serious.

BA isn't really in the business anymore to throw away money for marketshare/run others away - everything is about achieving ROIC targets - which you can't do by throwing millions into an operation with low returns. Aside from starting Oakland, BA hasn't really attempted any spoiling games in the past decade. They're concentrating on their own game rather than worrying about a minor operation in Manchester.

BA hasn't felt any "pinch" from Virgin or others. Loads and yields have been consistently improving even on routes where Norwegian has tried making inroads.
 
SEU
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:59 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


Was a poor attempt at sarcasm ?
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:01 pm

Well that’s your opinion and I have stated mine, just depends which way the situation will go.

However to write off VS completely, with deep pocketed backers and a new strategy, would be very naive. Yes, today they may pose little risk, but, it’s about mitigating future problems. Flybe now for example have a fleet of dash8 and E175, but strong rumours of an A220 order raises that competition up a slight notch too.

Like I say, its all conjecture at this point both from mine and your angle, so, just have to see how it plays out.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:09 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.

Oh my aching sides, BA use T3, the worst major UK terminal by quite some way. Security at MAN have their own special rules, I truly hate what they have done to a once fine airport!
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:21 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
The rumours seem to come and go periodically. Whilst I think BA may have some success out of MAN if they were to try again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Yes, several times 'W' pattern flights using Gatwicked 777s has been mentioned, especially once the re-configurations are complete.

BA777FO wrote:
It has been asked about a LGW-MCO-MAN-MCO-LGW W-pattern in the past which has a lot of potential in the summer months. However, BA has always resisted citing too much operational risk with just one or two airframes doing the W and possibly having an aircraft stuck in Manchester when it's needed at LGW. Given the past answers regarding W patterns and complexity I think, ultimately, this rumour has no legs to it. BA still has plenty of ex-Monarch slots to convert to long haul flights and that'll be where there's likely to be more growth.

Wasn't that more to do withe LGW having lost its longhaul spare after the write-off of G-YMMM? I believe though that with more 777s moving to LGW an operational spare is, if not back, at least planned.



Personally I wonder if BA would be better off re-introducing LGW-MAN flights to feed its growing longhaul operations at LGW. Yes, direct might be a good idea but given VS will soon have Virgin Connect to add some feed surely IAG would be better off trying to optimise feed to its three key longhaul stations in the UK and Ireland - LHR, LGW and DUB - rather than trying to add a minimal number of 777 flights on O&D alone.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
SueD
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:40 pm

FlyCaledonian and others

This BA would be better off re-introducing LGW-MAN flights to feed its growing longhaul operations at LGW. Yes, direct might be a good idea but given VS will soon have Virgin Connect to add some feed surely IAG would be better off trying to optimise feed to its three key longhaul stations in the UK and Ireland - LHR, LGW and DUB - rather than trying to add a minimal number of 777 flights on O&D alone. Agreed !
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:45 pm

FlyCaledonian wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
It has been asked about a LGW-MCO-MAN-MCO-LGW W-pattern in the past which has a lot of potential in the summer months. However, BA has always resisted citing too much operational risk with just one or two airframes doing the W and possibly having an aircraft stuck in Manchester when it's needed at LGW. Given the past answers regarding W patterns and complexity I think, ultimately, this rumour has no legs to it. BA still has plenty of ex-Monarch slots to convert to long haul flights and that'll be where there's likely to be more growth.

Wasn't that more to do withe LGW having lost its longhaul spare after the write-off of G-YMMM? I believe though that with more 777s moving to LGW an operational spare is, if not back, at least planned.


No. The post-mod LGW fleet is planned at 3 4-class 777s, 6 unbunked 3-class 777s and 6 bunked 3-class 777s for a total of 15 - just one airframe over the current situation. There will be no spare airframe at LGW outside of potentially just a long turn between, say, a LAS or SJO arrival and a MRU departure.

The rejection of W patterns on operational risk reasons came as recently as a year or two ago internally and Manchester long haul had cold water poured on it as recently as a few months ago by someone who would be in the know regarding slots etc.

FlyCaledonian wrote:
Personally I wonder if BA would be better off re-introducing LGW-MAN flights to feed its growing longhaul operations at LGW. Yes, direct might be a good idea but given VS will soon have Virgin Connect to add some feed surely IAG would be better off trying to optimise feed to its three key longhaul stations in the UK and Ireland - LHR, LGW and DUB - rather than trying to add a minimal number of 777 flights on O&D alone.


In 2009 LGW-MAN was BA's worst performing shorthaul route (from the MD Gatwick at the time). I operated the route fairly frequently and loads were poor, typically 50-80, and yields were awful too. MAN-LGW-MCO was often sold cheaper than LGW-MCO. That easyJet hasn't taken it up, nor Norwegian, tells you all you need to know about that route. BA doesn't need feed to fill its LGW operation. It naturally gets some from some its Italian destinations and AMS, JER, GLA and EDI, and they're a bonus, but none of that feed is required for any of the routes to be a success. That's why yields there have held up so well despite longhaul capacity increasing by ~20%.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:59 pm

MAN is a big airport getting near to 30 million. that compares to CPH or OSL, or on the other side of the Atlantic, to DTW, PHL, BWI, YVR, to name some.
Anybody instantly crying it must be loss making if BA ties out a few TATL routes from MAN, should be explain why that is a natural law. What size of airport or catchment do you need to start new routes? And perhaps you do not start with routes were you have the heaviest competition, but even though.
That an airline the size of BA could not find a few frames to try out a new route, is the next nonsense propagated here.

I am rather astonished how long it takes for the home airline to test this potential.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:01 pm

User001 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
BA use T3 at MAN which quite frankly is a dump.


BA is being moved to T2 with a new terraces lounge to boot, so, the experience will get better. And let's face it with T3, it can only Get better!


An airport that charges people to drop off passengers will never be a good airport.
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