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JamesCousins
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:18 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
priority will still likely be LHR/LGW for VS, with MAN providing an opportunity to extract value from another market’s O&D and some hub connectivity opportunities.


Manchester isn't just an add-on opportunity for Virgin, it's just as much (if not more) of a focus as Gatwick. VS has cut a number of routes from Gatwick (e.g. Cancun & Vegas) while doing the opposite with Manchester, building a transatlantic network there that trumps its Gatwick counterpart.

Of all airports VS operates from, Manchester has the most opportunities for expansion in the short, medium & long term. It is the least slot restricted, serves the biggest under-served market (the North-East, North-West, Central-England and the Midlands), is the focus of Virgin Connect (aka Flybe), while the airport itself is in the middle of a huge transformation. As much as Virgin would 'prefer' to build a hub at Heathrow they simply won't be able to for 10 years in a best case scenario.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
iberiadc852
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:31 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:


Before replying to my post, you should read it. I just claimed that PMI (which roughly has the same number of PAX than MAN) has not carriers like TAP or Turkish that pretty much fly everywhere in Europe.


So what was the point of comparing MAN to PMI if by your own admission above they serve very different markets?

Looks like a pretty transparent attempt at trolling to me (and not for the first time either on this topic).


I was not comparing PMI to MAN. I was just replying to this comment:

mjoelnir wrote:
MAN is a big airport getting near to 30 million. that compares to CPH or OSL, or on the other side of the Atlantic, to DTW, PHL, BWI, YVR, to name some..


Having 10 or 30 million passengers / year is relatively irrelevant for British Airways. Mallorca (or Antalya) are the perfect examples of very large airports in terms of passengers that do have few legacy carriers because their traffic is extremely leisure-oriented. And BA serves LCY (about 5M PAX) despite being a "small airport".

So "number of passengers/year" is just a metric for any carrier to start a destination.


Yes, and Singapur is a 60+ million passenger airport and Iberia doesn't fly there.
But BAW is British, MAN is British and Mallorca is Spain, that's what you cannot compare in terms of brand image about serving certain demand/airports.
Last edited by iberiadc852 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:31 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
priority will still likely be LHR/LGW for VS, with MAN providing an opportunity to extract value from another market’s O&D and some hub connectivity opportunities.


Manchester isn't just an add-on opportunity for Virgin, it's just as much (if not more) of a focus as Gatwick. VS has cut a number of routes from Gatwick (e.g. Cancun & Vegas) while doing the opposite with Manchester, building a transatlantic network there that trumps its Gatwick counterpart.


Interestingly, as Virgin has left Cancun and Vegas from Gatwick, BA has successfully replaces them to both destinations. BA will be near daily to both Vegas and Cancun this summer and has nearly doubled capacity to Cancun this winter. BA will also make up the capacity Virgin is withdrawing at St. Lucia.

Gatwick is a real longhaul premium leisure powerhouse for BA at the moment with the backing of BA holidays and a very competitive cost base. They'll be more interested in adding to that organically with lower risks than a whole new operation at Manchester.

Some people seem to think the argument is that Manchester will lose money for BA. That's not it, no one is arguing that. It's just that added capacity at Heathrow and Gatwick will yield better returns than a token operation at Manchester and the complexity that would involve.
 
airbazar
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:55 pm

David_itl wrote:
Yes, that's right. Going from 3 weekly A330 to daily 757. For such a "bad" route to get 30% to 40% increase capacity indicates that the beancounters in the joint venture must have seen some merit in the service.

The general anti-MAN rhetoric that pervade this forum is astonishing.

You failed to point out that MAN-BOS is a shortened seasonal route that doesn't even operate the entire Summer schedule, only in the peak period from May 21-Sep 7. That is the definition of not enough demand IMO. No one is arguing whether it makes money or not. It's not being anti-MAN. It's being factual and realistic.
The smaller aircraft allows the JV to operate the route daily which in theory should attract more business flyers and result in higher yields. The downgauge is a good thing however it doesn't change the fact that it's the smallest aircraft there is for the route and that it only runs for a short period of time in the peak Summer months. That says everything one needs to know about the demand for this route.
There's also been a new development on the BOS side that didn't exist before: BOS is now a Delta hub. this means that DL will be channeling more connecting traffic thru BOS which should be a boost for this and other DL TATL routes.
Last edited by airbazar on Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SueD
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:57 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
SueD wrote:
Madrid and onward connections to Latin America are weak from the UK including the capital as a whole . UK PLC simply doesn’t have the historical business or financial ties period.


Yet London has non-stop flights to BOG, EZE, GIG, GRU, HAV, LIM, MEX and SCL (at least) in Latin America. Even if the UK (we agree) doesn't have a lot of historial/financial links with most of Spanish/Portuguese-speaking LATAM, it shows how even there (at a relatively secondary market for the UK), London has an edge that Manchester cannot remotely match. Something like LHR-GRU (being Sao Paulo Latin America's largest urban economy) is served by three carriers and something like MAN-GRU would be an announced failure.


Absolutely no one is suggesting Manchester is even remotely comparable to London or that any services to Latin America would be viable other than you !

It a red herring .

Any BA long haul would be heavily dependent on BA World Holidays true enough and the destination choices would be pretty much New York ( subject to slot availability) Orlando and Barbados with possibly Las Vegas and in direct competition with Virgin/Delta period.

It would be a spoiler operation .
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:02 pm

Manchester would be a great place to place the B788 fleet if you ask me. BA can then do a top-up order of B789s...and on routes not needing F, F can be sold as J.
 
Bhoy
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:22 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
Manchester isn't just an add-on opportunity for Virgin, it's just as much (if not more) of a focus as Gatwick. VS has cut a number of routes from Gatwick (e.g. Cancun & Vegas) while doing the opposite with Manchester, building a transatlantic network there that trumps its Gatwick counterpart.

Of all airports VS operates from, Manchester has the most opportunities for expansion in the short, medium & long term. It is the least slot restricted, serves the biggest under-served market (the North-East, North-West, Central-England and the Midlands), is the focus of Virgin Connect (aka Flybe), while the airport itself is in the middle of a huge transformation. As much as Virgin would 'prefer' to build a hub at Heathrow they simply won't be able to for 10 years in a best case scenario.


Umm, Glasgow? Virtually no TATL competition, much swifter security queues and generally better Pax experience, reasonably sized Virgin Connect presence, no slot restrictions, equally big underserved market reaching as far down as the Lake District and Northumberland. I'll put my fishing rod away again now.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:23 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Manchester would be a great place to place the B788 fleet if you ask me. BA can then do a top-up order of B789s...and on routes not needing F, F can be sold as J.


The 788 has a specific role in the BA fleet, BA use it to open routes like MSY, CHS, etc. All the places that people think an airline like BA would never fly wide-bodies to. The 789 plays a similar role to Asia, not just lying idle!

BA could offer some service into the Caribbean and the US, TCX operated Cuba, Cancun, Jamaica, LAX, LAS, MCO, SFO, JFK. Virgin and Delta seem to have those covered well between them. What BA could use to operate those routes? They haven't got additional aircraft coming unless they hold onto the 747s longer and allow more 777s to be released, or keep the 3 777-200As which were planned to be retired this year and they need cover for the 787 engine issues and Club Suite refits.

If BA are going to launch long-haul routes I would expect that they see potential for long-term profitable operation.
 
ASA
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:04 pm

Biman Bangladesh just started/resumed non-stop 3x weekly DAC-MAN using a brand new 789 ... :thumbsup:
https://www.thedailystar.net/business/n ... ht-1849843
 
IrishLessor
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:19 pm

SueD wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
MAN is a big airport getting near to 30 million. that compares to CPH or OSL, or on the other side of the Atlantic, to DTW, PHL, BWI, YVR, to name some.
Anybody instantly crying it must be loss making if BA ties out a few TATL routes from MAN, should be explain why that is a natural law. What size of airport or catchment do you need to start new routes? And perhaps you do not start with routes were you have the heaviest competition, but even though.


30M PAX doesn't mean anything. Palma de Mallorca has roughly those numbers and even "basic" carriers (for European standards) like TAP or Turkish do not operate there.

Manchester is very leisure and very local oriented. An enormous part of those passengers are just looking for sun. If you look at the top 10 destinations in 2018, 4 are sun destinations: TFS (798,954), ALC (748,982), PMI (720,393) and AGP (567,747). The busiest (by far) US destination is... another holiday destination: Orlando (484,811).

The ME3 are big but I wonder how many of those passengers are just VFR/holiday (whether South Asians that live in the MAN area or British that live in Australia, etc. or just British heading to Phuket or Bali).

Another problem is that Manchester doesn't have a big international influence, and foreigners do not want to go there (other than VFR, business, etc.). Dublin has roughly the same number of passengers but it is a completely different story as it is a much more global city and a tourism destination. For instance Iberia (despite IAG and the connection possibilities at MAD) has only made MAN daily recently. Aer Lingus/Iberia operate multiple daily MAD-DUB. Just simply because many more Spaniards, Americans, Brazilians etc. want to go to DUB than to MAN. Long-haul would rely almost exclusively on the local market (that is why Orlando is the most popular destination in the US out of MAN) which is riskier than a balanced market with demand on both sides.


IAG and previous Iberia presence in the Manchester-Spain market remains via Barcelona and has been since the seventies currently using the Vueling brand .

Madrid and onward connections to Latin America are weak from the UK including the capital as a whole . UK PLC simply doesn’t have the historical business or financial ties period.

BTW Iberia Express still hasn’t returned daily after the financial restructuring of a few years back . It’s just going to 5 weekly for northern summer at random times and certain isn’t targeting onward connections!

As for the Spanish market Manchester has a plethora of other direct none stop options to just about every major town and city cepting the North West of Galicia so connections aren’t exactly necessary are they ?

Whilst TAP are scheduling two daily To and from little ol’ Lisbon and interestingly specifically do target connections into Brazil and West Africa. As well as strong business and of course leisure clients. The popularity of Estoril coast line from Cascais to Carcavelos and their casinos goes back almost half a century from the North West of England and there are numerous industrial ties with businesses in the North West and around Carnaxide in particular.

Still don’t let a few facts dent your very Madrid centric view point .

Manchester isn’t an A or A+ Global city agreed, however it is rising once again as an major economic centre of importance, with universities, medical research centres , sporting events , presence of global tech businesses and media companies right in the heart of the city. Oh and the city is the second major UK point for inbound tourist visitor numbers (Yes that’s actually true !)

Iberia simply can’t compete and their Madrid Hub is therefore among the weakest in the UK regions sorry to say.

As a control measure for demand and yield it’s probably the worst matrix you could devise and choose.

As for this rumour and my personal opinion I am not going down that path again .

Look at my former comments online using my other pseudonyms

The will BA (IAG) re introduce long haul flights from the regions thread is almost as recurrent and circuitous in nature as the R3 debate, and neither ever gets to a satisfactory conclusion.

In economics things do change and professional modellers get the number wrong quite often !

What Dublin has is a resident former national carrier that has prioritised ease of onward connections to New York and Boston for fifty years whilst that same carrier survived the disruptive turbulence of the changed face of the European free for all a decade and half past by quitting alliances and going down market - That cost cutting drive remains the basis of their current DNA to be honest and still they aren’t a One World member - no they actually still have a code share relationship with United strange that !

Much of the extra 1.2 millions terminal numbers at Dublin are actually double counted transfers and are by definition much lower yielding than point to point ! and the basket of fares from Manchester on the legacies in particular are generally far from bargain basement in my experience .

If Manchester were a fares pit and yield dustbin some suggest , those legacies which include almost all EU carriers (cepting bust Alitalia ) the three primary US internationals , South Asian, Hong Kong and indeed multiple flights by the ME3 plus one wouldn’t be operating I can tell you.

With a new terminal 2 coming on line two fully usable 10,000+ runways and huge catchment area and rail accessibility from all points north of Birmingham , Manchester is very well placed right now.


Iberia can't compete?
What a load of toss, Iberia is profitable and focussed strategically on EU to South America. What facts or data set do you have to back up claims like this?
What is the volume of pax flying MAN South America and what share of said traffic do Iberia have that leads you to this assertion?
 
LAXffDUB
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:57 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
BOACJrJet wrote:
Shouldn't that be re-launch ? I have flown BOAC/BA tatl into MAN on VC10, L1011, 757, 767 - I have connected from MAN both domestic and European destinations on BA. Big disappointment when BA dropped MAN-JFK. They also had MAN-LAX at one time. Winter months there was a JFK-MAN-GLA L1011 service.


Yes, BA flew JFK-MAN for years, most recently before it was axed, on a 767-300ER, I think. They also for a short time had JFK-GLA and I seem to recall BHX too, but I could be wrong on BHX. AA had JFK-MAN and JFK-BHX and axed them both a few years ago. It was the second iteration of JFK-MAN for AA. When AA started flying JFK-LHR in 1992, it added a JFK-MAN route, on a 762ER as well but was quickly phased out. AA had ORD-MAN for years and for a time, ORD-BHX and ORD-GLA.


You are correct. There were two daily flights from JFK to BHX and GLA using 757s, They only lasted a short while. When they were axed I recall GLA became an extension of the MAN service. But that didn't last long either. Shortly afterwards JFK/MAN got axed as well.
 
SueD
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:14 pm

IrishLessor wrote:
SueD wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

30M PAX doesn't mean anything. Palma de Mallorca has roughly those numbers and even "basic" carriers (for European standards) like TAP or Turkish do not operate there.

Manchester is very leisure and very local oriented. An enormous part of those passengers are just looking for sun. If you look at the top 10 destinations in 2018, 4 are sun destinations: TFS (798,954), ALC (748,982), PMI (720,393) and AGP (567,747). The busiest (by far) US destination is... another holiday destination: Orlando (484,811).

The ME3 are big but I wonder how many of those passengers are just VFR/holiday (whether South Asians that live in the MAN area or British that live in Australia, etc. or just British heading to Phuket or Bali).

Another problem is that Manchester doesn't have a big international influence, and foreigners do not want to go there (other than VFR, business, etc.). Dublin has roughly the same number of passengers but it is a completely different story as it is a much more global city and a tourism destination. For instance Iberia (despite IAG and the connection possibilities at MAD) has only made MAN daily recently. Aer Lingus/Iberia operate multiple daily MAD-DUB. Just simply because many more Spaniards, Americans, Brazilians etc. want to go to DUB than to MAN. Long-haul would rely almost exclusively on the local market (that is why Orlando is the most popular destination in the US out of MAN) which is riskier than a balanced market with demand on both sides.


IAG and previous Iberia presence in the Manchester-Spain market remains via Barcelona and has been since the seventies currently using the Vueling brand .

Madrid and onward connections to Latin America are weak from the UK including the capital as a whole . UK PLC simply doesn’t have the historical business or financial ties period.

BTW Iberia Express still hasn’t returned daily after the financial restructuring of a few years back . It’s just going to 5 weekly for northern summer at random times and certain isn’t targeting onward connections!

As for the Spanish market Manchester has a plethora of other direct none stop options to just about every major town and city cepting the North West of Galicia so connections aren’t exactly necessary are they ?

Whilst TAP are scheduling two daily To and from little ol’ Lisbon and interestingly specifically do target connections into Brazil and West Africa. As well as strong business and of course leisure clients. The popularity of Estoril coast line from Cascais to Carcavelos and their casinos goes back almost half a century from the North West of England and there are numerous industrial ties with businesses in the North West and around Carnaxide in particular.

Still don’t let a few facts dent your very Madrid centric view point .

Manchester isn’t an A or A+ Global city agreed, however it is rising once again as an major economic centre of importance, with universities, medical research centres , sporting events , presence of global tech businesses and media companies right in the heart of the city. Oh and the city is the second major UK point for inbound tourist visitor numbers (Yes that’s actually true !)

Iberia simply can’t compete and their Madrid Hub is therefore among the weakest in the UK regions sorry to say.

As a control measure for demand and yield it’s probably the worst matrix you could devise and choose.

As for this rumour and my personal opinion I am not going down that path again .

Look at my former comments online using my other pseudonyms

The will BA (IAG) re introduce long haul flights from the regions thread is almost as recurrent and circuitous in nature as the R3 debate, and neither ever gets to a satisfactory conclusion.

In economics things do change and professional modellers get the number wrong quite often !

What Dublin has is a resident former national carrier that has prioritised ease of onward connections to New York and Boston for fifty years whilst that same carrier survived the disruptive turbulence of the changed face of the European free for all a decade and half past by quitting alliances and going down market - That cost cutting drive remains the basis of their current DNA to be honest and still they aren’t a One World member - no they actually still have a code share relationship with United strange that !

Much of the extra 1.2 millions terminal numbers at Dublin are actually double counted transfers and are by definition much lower yielding than point to point ! and the basket of fares from Manchester on the legacies in particular are generally far from bargain basement in my experience .

If Manchester were a fares pit and yield dustbin some suggest , those legacies which include almost all EU carriers (cepting bust Alitalia ) the three primary US internationals , South Asian, Hong Kong and indeed multiple flights by the ME3 plus one wouldn’t be operating I can tell you.

With a new terminal 2 coming on line two fully usable 10,000+ runways and huge catchment area and rail accessibility from all points north of Birmingham , Manchester is very well placed right now.


Iberia can't compete?
What a load of toss, Iberia is profitable and focussed strategically on EU to South America. What facts or data set do you have to back up claims like this?
What is the volume of pax flying MAN South America and what share of said traffic do Iberia have that leads you to this assertion?


Iberia are good at what they do however they can’t and don’t compete in the UK regional market where their USP has little demand period !

They have three focuses Latin America where there is little demand, the peninsula where a plethora of none stop options exist. Only places Iberia does well via Madrid from Manchester and Birmingham is actually down to the Canaries .

By the way I do have more than a passing interest in getting to Badajos a rather small town twice a year so going to Madrid is something l do reasonably regularly . The Iberia Express services are hopeless and indeed twice in the last three years I chose to go to Lisbon where I have other business links , hired a car and drove the three hours across the boarder. Each to their own I suppose.

And I never said they were a failure -And I can’t vouch for your own comprehension of the words written that’s not my problem !

Eire is rather different in that there is the religious market and also rather deep political ties between the Dáil and Corte Generale particularly on EU issues and no discredit for that .
 
AstanaMagic
Posts: 72
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:48 pm

SueD wrote:
The Iberia Express services are hopeless


Have to agree both I2 and IB service quality are more than hopeless - based on my own personal experience (over 250 flights in the last 10 years, mostly in J).

I remember well and travelled frequently, on the direct flights to JFK, LAX, BGI, HKG and ISB, when I lived in the UK in the 1990s. I personally would love to see BA back in the regions rather than being London centric, however, after all these years I am skeptical.

I’ve read some of the contributors speculating that IAG would offer the Level brand and frankly in my opinion this would be a huge mistake for IAG to do if they want to dislodge VS.
2020: AGP, KSQ, LGW, LHR, MXP, SVQ, TAS, XRY, ZRH
A/C: 32B, 32S, 752, 763, E90
A/L: BA, HY, LX, 2L
 
spud757
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:55 pm

The only way I can see BA making a success on targeted routes is using the densified 3 class 772 fleet on W patterns with LGW crew, after all, this is primarily what is used for the mostly O&D leisure & VFR services out of LGW. There is premium demand to be had at MAN, hence why VS flies UC & Premium Y, and why the likes of EK/SQ/CX/EY/QR offer services, including F on EK.

Also, BA must have a long-haul leisure market up north. Why else would BA Holidays bother with expensive TV advertising in the NW and Yorkshire? Of course, many of these holidays will involve a trek to London but from these sales and from their own stats transferring via LHR they know the market that exists. Now the have the aircraft configuration better suited... perhaps it’ll happen.

However, for me, VS is the number one choice across the Atlantic via MAN. I wish VS well for future growth and for the interesting times ahead with integration of BE network and new facilities at T2.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:00 pm

Thanks for the comprehensive response!

BA777FO wrote:
You're right, usually a majority are travelling for non-business related reasons on most flights - that's why the majority of the aircraft's seats are in the economy cabin. Some wealthy leisure passengers are also willing to pay for premium seats - this is the big difference at LGW and the London market. BA during the peak Caribbean season can offer up to 28 seats per day in First to Barbados, 96 seats in business class (sometimes more than it does on LHR-EWR!). During the summer it offers 64 business class seats and over 100 premium economy seats to Orlando. Those seats are the ones that need filling to turn a decent margin. Can Manchester fill those seats on a consistent basis at a yield at least equal to Gatwick? If not, then it's unlikely BA will initiate the operational risk of a few long haul flights from there. The differential between LHR & LGW is still quite marked. The difference in the number of Gold Card holders on a LHR-JFK flight compared to LGW-JFK flights is amazing.

The point that many seem not to appreciate is that IAG/BA aren't necessarily interested in what anyone else does as long as what IAG/BA does meets their target return on investment - unlike in the USA where some airlines involve themselves in marketshare battles, IAG isn't interested in that, it is all about shareholder returns and little else. There may well be money to be made doing MAN-MCO but in all liklihood they've determined a few extra LGW-CUNs is going to make them more. LHR-PDX, being the new route, is likely to have higher returns than MAN-ORD.

There was a mention that BA should resume MAN-LGW to help fill up long haul flights from LGW - BA doesn't need feed to fill up its LGW long haul flights. MAN-LGW was an awfully performing route 10 years ago. That MAN-LHR has been reduced (to be fair, so has NCL for the same reasons) because BA has shifted some of its flying from short haul to longhaul for those higher yields. When you have finite resources you allocate them where you'll get the highest return. LHR to Entebbe, Lusaka and Dar es Salam were profitable, but deploying those 787s to New Orleans, Nashville and Austin had higher returns. On that basis, BA setting up at Manchester with unnecessary start up costs, doesn't make sense when they can command higher yields in London.

Are BA bothered by 20-30 Virgin/Flybe aircraft at MAN snd a few more direct MAN-USA flights? Even if R3 happens at LHR and all of those move down, BA again won't be too concerned by a few Dash-8s and any extra Virgin competition can be more than matched by BA given the efforts its taken to reduce its cost base.


To summarise, in your lexicon leisure is analogous to relatively low yield and business is analogous to relatively high yield - is that summary a fair reflection?

I’m sure there are differences in yield across the board from LHR to LGW to MAN. To the points above I would say the following:

First - at LHR and LGW the question is marginal gains. Will that extra rotation to X, Y or Z at LHR or LGW make a greater return than a new service at MAN (accepting that a new base at MAN would carry additional operational risk and new fixed costs which do not come into the equation). I’d say that is likely to be more finely balanced than you think.

Second - within the next year or two, it is likely that VS will be flying double daily A35K between MAN-MCO. If this is the leisure configured model, that is likely to be 100 two way UC seats per day, broadly compatible to BA at LGW. A similar pattern is likely to play out elsewhere on the VS network at MAN - that haven’t built the clubhouse expecting a small premium response.

Third - I suspect a number of passengers using the LGW services are FF’s using redemptions - whilst this has value for BA, it doesn’t equate to a direct profit for the specific route.

Fourth - the larger number of gold card holders on LHR services compared to LGW whilst no surprise if true does not necessarily mean they are London based fliers. If anything, it supports a proposition that BA’s gold card holders are drawn from a far wider geographical area across the U.K. and Europe.

Fifth - if BA are able to fill their long haul traffic at LHR and LGW using local O&D, I’d say that it an argument in support of opening a new base to deliver additional capacity (assuming neither LHR or LGW will deliver additional capacity any time soon). The question is whether that additional base would cannibalise business from LHR / LGW (which a base at MAN - whether BA or VS probably would). Perversely, that would also be a rationale to start at MAN.

Sixth - is this not more likely to be the strategic objective of protecting IAG’s growth and position at DUB by frustrating VS at MAN (where BA is the best IAG brand to accomplish this objective) as specific to growing BA or protecting BA at LHR (the rules of the London market would not apply to DUB which would be more “normal”).

Seventh - I don’t think it’s right to say BA/IAG have no interest in their competition and it would be unwise if they ignored it. They have over a sustained period of time tried to eliminate competition using a variety of tactics. Historically through trying to lock their competition out of the U.K. entirely using the political lobby, and more recently by flooding capacity into LGW to deal with the threat of Norwegian head on - they even created an entire new airline brand (Level) to compete with Norwegian. To me, the strongest argument in favour of BA resuming MAN is as a spoiler to what VS are building at MAN (which would require relatively limited resource by BA’s standard).

BA777FO wrote:
Emirates can fill a flight from MAN with 30 people each going from MAN to BOM, DEL, SIN, HKG, PVG, SYD, AKL etc (you get the idea) as those 500 passengers or so are all then put onto those flights out of DXB. BA can't justify a flight between MAN and BOM based upon 30 passengers worth of demand without any meaningful feed at either end. As Emirates has feed in DXB it makes sense. BA still carries passengers between MAN and India and the Far East over LHR but not enough to justify direct flights. Very few people travel solely between MAN and DXB.

...

Just as Air France is unlikely to start long haul flights from NCE, TLS or BOD, BA is unlikely to start long haul flights from MAN. This rumour has been done before, but that's all it is, a rumour - it won't be happening any time soon.


In isolation, the point about EK routing passengers through DXB is a fair one. However, that point is magnified through tens of daily departures from a variety of airlines, meaning the ppdew is theoretically there for a number of routes to the Far East, Subcontinent and Africa. The market was there if BA wanted it. However, they only wanted it on their terms and it therefore went elsewhere.

I don’t think the comparison of MAN to NCE, TLS, BOD et al are valid ones - each are very different markets to MAN.

I think there is a fair point to make at this stage about BA’s historical poor decision making when it comes to dealing with change. The best known example is reacting to the low cost carriers appearing. BA rather naively thought they wouldn’t have to compete on price and they could win on service. The outcome of that particular decision was BA’s mass retreat from the U.K. regions, and BA now offering from LHR a de facto low cost service on short haul. It remains to be seen if BA’s management have learned the lessons of the past and if so if their approach to dealing with change has changed.

Whichever way we look at it - this is unlikely to come to pass so it’s a paper based exercise. I also think our views are pretty close - which is that BA could make money at MAN if they wanted to, but could they make at least a broadly similar amount of money without having to do so. The other side of the coin is whether a MAN base could help or harm the wider IAG network in any way - that’s difficult to assess.

On the current trajectory, I think a tipping point will be reached at some stage in the relatively near future, but whether that is imminent I’m not so sure.
 
czek6
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:20 pm

With Thomas Cook gone, I am surprised that MAN hasn’t produced more of a turf war, but maybe I haven’t been paying close enough attention.

It’s a good point about IAG not using Level, but maybe they want to expand British Airways to being a UK airline and not just a London centric airline. It makes for nice brand positioning.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:01 am

A comparison with France is not very telling because of two reasons.
1, NCE, TLS and BOD are together about the same size as MAN. There is no comparable 3rd airport in France, even #2 in France, ORY, is about the size of MAN.
2. High speed rail. France has it, the UK does not.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:54 am

mjoelnir wrote:
A comparison with France is not very telling because of two reasons.
1, NCE, TLS and BOD are together about the same size as MAN. There is no comparable 3rd airport in France, even #2 in France, ORY, is about the size of MAN.
2. High speed rail. France has it, the UK does not.


What's the significance of high speed rail? You can still get to Manchester from London in 2 hours by rail. Despite the French TGV, from Paris, Nice and Toulouse have more weekly departures than any other destination. Marseille is 9th and Montpelier is 16th (according to OAG for summer 2018).

Air France feels no need to start long haul flights from Nice in the same respect that BA feels no need to start flights from Manchester because it can command higher yielda from its limited assets by deploying them from London airports.

There's no basis to this rumour, in fact, internally it has been quashed just about every year for the last decade. If Virgin wants to build up a hub at Manchester, good luck to them, but BA won't be too bothered about a dozen destinations from Manchester against its near 200 from the London airports.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:21 am

bhxalex wrote:
Surely AA as part of the BA/AA Tatl joint venture would be better placed to add service.

ORD, DFW, LAX, BOS, MIA, CLT and JFK are already hubs or have existing AA metal on Tatl services, so wouldn’t using AA to open these services eliminate the cost of opening a base at MAN?


AA have historically operated from MAN to some of these places but have withdrawn. ORD's rundown is well-documented, MIA lasted one season over 15 years ago and BOS wasn't operated for long either. JFK's withdrawal seems to be consistent with AA removing various routes from there in recent years. US Airways did MAN-CLT for one season just before the merger and its discontinuation speaks for itself.

The only AA route left is the ex-US Airways route to PHL, but even then that's using the 767 with its poor Y product for another year when not long ago it used nearly-new A330's.

spud757 wrote:
Also, BA must have a long-haul leisure market up north. Why else would BA Holidays bother with expensive TV advertising in the NW and Yorkshire?


That thought crossed my mind when I saw a BA Holidays advert on TV within the last week.
 
RvA
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:24 am

BA777FO wrote:

BA feels no need to start flights from Manchester because it can command higher yielda from its limited assets by deploying them from London airports.



Couldn’t agree more. Flights like this not out of your main hub likely end up in a W pattern which is often less than ideal too operationally. Perhaps one day in the future taking over a long haul route from AA out of MAN may make sense provided the operational costs and risks are worth it for the extra revenue and yield BA might be able to bring in over AA. But perhaps that never ends up being the case and this simply never happens.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 am

zkojq wrote:
:checkmark: It's an absolute joke of an airport. By far the worst I've visited in Europe. Apparently the architects of terminals one and three loved low ceilings and narrow passageways, ideally with lots of unnecessary 90 degree turns in them. The army of smokers between terminal one and three is truly one of the most disgusting things I've ever seen. The check-in area of terminal All of the non-airside areas of that airport will suck every bit of hope, joy and happiness out of your soul. How did they get it all so wrong?


T1 and T3 have been "pissed around" with over the years which has led to the current layouts. T3 is unfit for purpose in its current role and I've complained before about the layout of departures, part of that is down to the T1 redevelopment in the mid-2000's and part of that is down to it now being used as a predominantly Ryanair terminal with Flybe, BA, Air France, KLM and a couple of others added in for good measure. T1 arrivals is cramped and the pier that the A380's use is old.

For me, T2 has always been the best of the lot by some margin, though I await to see what the rest of the new terminal looks like in due course.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:52 am

BA777FO wrote:
There's no basis to this rumour, in fact, internally it has been quashed just about every year for the last decade.


I’m not sure you can say it gets quashed - here is a quote from Alex Cruz from 2018:

“I’ll give you the same answer I have given my staff, and the answer is “not yet.” We are serving Manchester. We have an inherent interest in the city of Manchester because we have a pretty large call centre there and we have a fairly large number of Executive Club members from the Manchester area who are coming to Heathrow to fly to a number of places, so while I wouldn’t rule it out, at this particular time there are no plans to do so at the moment.

We will continue to monitor what opportunities surface, however. UK carriers’ Manchester propositions are mostly leisure from Manchester – Las Vegas, Florida, etc. Otherwise Manchester is being connected by non-British carriers coming in from the US or the Gulf. So how would BA fit in with that when BA is not strictly a leisure carrier? I don’t know. It’s not entirely out of the radar but it’s not in the immediate radar.”

I know Alex and BA have their operational and communication challenges, which are well publicised, but it would be surprising for this to be quashed internally when the public message is at the very least ambiguous.

I suspect the truth of this rumour is that BA keep their options under review, but (for the reasons articulated) the message is “not yet”...

https://www.businesstraveller.com/news/ ... 20/428265/
 
GBNWB
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:21 am

BA can't operate its full Heathrow schedule without leasing aircraft, therefore I really cannot see them sending aircraft to MAN any time soon. Have they not just taken a few slots from TUI at LGW too in addition to the Monarch ones?
 
TC957
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:49 am

GBNWB wrote:
BA can't operate its full Heathrow schedule without leasing aircraft, therefore I really cannot see them sending aircraft to MAN any time soon. Have they not just taken a few slots from TUI at LGW too in addition to the Monarch ones?

Yes, but that's due to the 787 RR engines issues still grounding some of them. In another thread, someone said BA will be +7 wide-bodies by the end of this year and that's before the grounded 787's are back in service.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:21 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
MAN is a big airport getting near to 30 million. that compares to CPH or OSL, or on the other side of the Atlantic, to DTW, PHL, BWI, YVR, to name some.
Anybody instantly crying it must be loss making if BA ties out a few TATL routes from MAN, should be explain why that is a natural law. What size of airport or catchment do you need to start new routes? And perhaps you do not start with routes were you have the heaviest competition, but even though.
That an airline the size of BA could not find a few frames to try out a new route, is the next nonsense propagated here.

I am rather astonished how long it takes for the home airline to test this potential.

Read up, it's all been clearly spelled out again and again.
BA has no feed at the UK end, any MAN long haul would be a standalone operation, with a very challenging terminal and non premium experience on the ground. BA know the size of the market well enough, the key point that has been raised time and time again is ROI. They can offer a one stop offering to the whole LHR network on the shuttle. It's not simply about the size of the catchment area, or "trying out". They have tried out in the past and not been especially succesful, and given too many B787s are still grounded as gliders, they're really tight for long haul aircraft. The ROI just isn't there, even American went from four daily after the US merger down to one. The market went for the Thomas Cook style offering or Virgin Holidays, less so the legacy long haul.
 
sevenair
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:22 pm

I don't see the point. BA spent years streamlining the business. It's hub is LHR. It serves the leisure market from LGW. Both servr London O&D as well as connections but largely at LHR. They've got rid of the regional bases, the franchises (except for two airlines called Sun Air, both thousands of miles apart [what are the chances of that!?]). They have nothing to do with flyBE.

IAG has numerous complexities but BA seems to be pretty simple. It works. It makes a fortune.

Yes, CiryFlyer do the odd leisure thing when their main base is shut, but their bread and butter is London.

I think what they need is better capacity to feed LHR on domestic routes. We are a small country and BA don't need an additional hub.

MAN will just complicate things, dilute yields potentially and if it is a predatory move to take out a competitor then we all know where that ends - no service at all or poor service at a high cost.

I just don't see it.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:48 pm

BOACJrJet wrote:
Shouldn't that be re-launch ? I have flown BOAC/BA tatl into MAN on VC10, L1011, 757, 767 - I have connected from MAN both domestic and European destinations on BA. Big disappointment when BA dropped MAN-JFK. They also had MAN-LAX at one time. Winter months there was a JFK-MAN-GLA L1011 service.


Correct. I remember flying into MAN from LIN on a B11, to connect to JFK on the L10. Ahhh, those were the days.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:52 pm

BA should have refurbed their old [but fully paid] RR-767s and have them move up the road to MAN, for a lower-cost, lower-yield operation built around northern-UK O&D. They could have easily done JFK, BOS, YYZ, plus a ton of Florida, Caribbean and Las Vegas and maybe say a couple of Indian towns.
Reality is that all that matters to BA is London.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:16 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
I'm not sure you can say it gets quashed


Publicly everything BA does or may do in the future is "constantly under review". If you asked BA for a comment on a rumour of a new flight from Heathrow to Timbuktu BA would respond with "no plans at the moment but we keep our network plan under constant review"!

Internally, they can be a bit more candid. Revenue managers and slot coordinators have poured cold water on it year after year.

oldannyboy wrote:
BA should have refurbed their old [but fully paid] RR-767s and have them move up the road to MAN, for a lower-cost, lower-yield operation built around northern-UK O&D. They could have easily done JFK, BOS, YYZ, plus a ton of Florida, Caribbean and Las Vegas and maybe say a couple of Indian towns.
Reality is that all that matters to BA is London.


The 767s were knackered and at the end of their useful life. Plus the 767s had no bunks, so India and Las Vegas would be out of the question. Operating old 767s would have been anything but low-cost.

It's not that London is all that matters to BA (if that was the case they wouldn't have spent millions on lounge refurbs in Edinburgh for example) but it is where the finite asset base can achieve the best returns. Operating a few flights a day between Manchester and Orlando, JFK, Toronto and Delhi would add little to BA's overall proposition.
 
by738
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:29 pm

BA777FO wrote:
It's not that London is all that matters to BA (if that was the case they wouldn't have spent millions on lounge refurbs in Edinburgh for example)

Aah but the only reason its refurbished eg EDI is exactly to feed LON.
 
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keesje
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:34 pm

It becomes possible to station a sub fleet of A321XLR's, serving e.g. NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Delhi and Boston to prevent FF high yield BA customers avoiding LHR.

In a few years XLR's from United, American, Jetblue, Indigo, Canada will start popping in from various places, challening customer long haul loyalty. .
Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
vinaixa
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:02 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


I personally find that Manchester Airport can be improved A LOT from its current state. I’ve had airport security check my bag fully because of a highlighter pen (which had no liquid). Also if you’re unlucky enough to fly out of T3, the corridor from security to the boarding gates is sometimes closed to allow passengers disembark from an adjacent gate.

My only complaint with heathrow is that 50% of the times I fly there my suitcase never makes it to the plane (not the next flight) Leaving me with no clothes for 3 days...

Still, I think Heathrow puts Manchester to shame.
 
IADCA
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:29 pm

Bhoy wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
Manchester isn't just an add-on opportunity for Virgin, it's just as much (if not more) of a focus as Gatwick. VS has cut a number of routes from Gatwick (e.g. Cancun & Vegas) while doing the opposite with Manchester, building a transatlantic network there that trumps its Gatwick counterpart.

Of all airports VS operates from, Manchester has the most opportunities for expansion in the short, medium & long term. It is the least slot restricted, serves the biggest under-served market (the North-East, North-West, Central-England and the Midlands), is the focus of Virgin Connect (aka Flybe), while the airport itself is in the middle of a huge transformation. As much as Virgin would 'prefer' to build a hub at Heathrow they simply won't be able to for 10 years in a best case scenario.


Umm, Glasgow? Virtually no TATL competition, much swifter security queues and generally better Pax experience, reasonably sized Virgin Connect presence, no slot restrictions, equally big underserved market reaching as far down as the Lake District and Northumberland. I'll put my fishing rod away again now.


As much as I like GLA, the huge difference for catchment between MAN and GLA (aside from England just being a lot more densely populated than Scotland) is the rail link. MAN has a pretty good one, with services all throughout the UK. GLA doesn't even have one to Glasgow itself. When that changes, GLA becomes a much better option.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:30 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Manchester would be a great place to place the B788 fleet if you ask me. BA can then do a top-up order of B789s...and on routes not needing F, F can be sold as J.

The 788s don’t have First
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
iberiadc852
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:12 pm

BA777FO wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
BA should have refurbed their old [but fully paid] RR-767s and have them move up the road to MAN, for a lower-cost, lower-yield operation built around northern-UK O&D. They could have easily done JFK, BOS, YYZ, plus a ton of Florida, Caribbean and Las Vegas and maybe say a couple of Indian towns.
Reality is that all that matters to BA is London.


The 767s were knackered and at the end of their useful life. Plus the 767s had no bunks, so India and Las Vegas would be out of the question. Operating old 767s would have been anything but low-cost..

Where have they all gone, by the way?
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
SCQ83
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:29 pm

keesje wrote:
It becomes possible to station a sub fleet of A321XLR's, serving e.g. NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Delhi and Boston to prevent FF high yield BA customers avoiding LHR.

In a few years XLR's from United, American, Jetblue, Indigo, Canada will start popping in from various places, challening customer long haul loyalty.


That would be better suited for STN.

Primera Air already tried something like that. A third London hub (or fourth if counting LCY) seems more logical that starting flights out of MAN.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:31 pm

iberiadc852 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
BA should have refurbed their old [but fully paid] RR-767s and have them move up the road to MAN, for a lower-cost, lower-yield operation built around northern-UK O&D. They could have easily done JFK, BOS, YYZ, plus a ton of Florida, Caribbean and Las Vegas and maybe say a couple of Indian towns.
Reality is that all that matters to BA is London.


The 767s were knackered and at the end of their useful life. Plus the 767s had no bunks, so India and Las Vegas would be out of the question. Operating old 767s would have been anything but low-cost..

Where have they all gone, by the way?


To St. Athan where they were scrapped and harvested for parts. Seems to be the fate of most of the 747s leaving the fleet too.
 
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keesje
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:44 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
keesje wrote:
It becomes possible to station a sub fleet of A321XLR's, serving e.g. NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Delhi and Boston to prevent FF high yield BA customers avoiding LHR.

In a few years XLR's from United, American, Jetblue, Indigo, Canada will start popping in from various places, challening customer long haul loyalty.


That would be better suited for STN.

Primera Air already tried something like that. A third London hub (or fourth if counting LCY) seems more logical that starting flights out of MAN.


BA has an unbeatable network from LHR. Only low cost can try get around that. Manchester is a big, seperate market. BA isn't focussing LC.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Skyblue39
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:41 pm

In recent times, Manchester has lost routes to Miami, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco and Charlotte. With summer only routes to Boston and Los Angeles - Boston yet to begin on a 757 and AA Philadelphia only on a 767.
Clearly TATL is not a forté for MAN.
If BA are considering LH from MAN, maybe looking east towards India would be a better idea?
 
by738
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:45 pm

IADCA wrote:
As much as I like GLA, the huge difference for catchment between MAN and GLA (aside from England just being a lot more densely populated than Scotland) is the rail link. MAN has a pretty good one, with services all throughout the UK. GLA doesn't even have one to Glasgow itself. When that changes, GLA becomes a much better option.

Well funding for link just confirmed today as part of a metro tram network. Airport link first in line.
 
User001
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:50 pm

Skyblue39 wrote:
In recent times, Manchester has lost routes to Miami, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco and Charlotte. With summer only routes to Boston and Los Angeles - Boston yet to begin on a 757 and AA Philadelphia only on a 767.
Clearly TATL is not a forté for MAN.
If BA are considering LH from MAN, maybe looking east towards India would be a better idea?


TATL not a MAN forte? Seriously?

Firstly, there's also the Caribbean to factor in, with routes to BGI, MBJ, PUJ, CUN, VRA and LRM.

Seattle and San Fran were only lost because TCX went bust. Its widely accepted within the industry the TCX long haul from MAN was profitable but in the end brought down by the losses of the parent company, so, MAN can not be blamed for that loss.

That aside, still HD aircraft on JFK/MCO and wide bodies on EWR/PHL/ATL/SFB/LAS/IAH/YYZ/YVR and LAX.

For an airport with no (current) based hub airline, non capital city, no obvious tourist centre (on the scale of DUB/BCN/PAR/LON etc) I think MAN punches well above its weight compared to comparable regional centres.

Then there is the fact MAN has had continuous TATL flights since 1954(?) I'd say TATL is well within its forte.

End of the day, I think we can all agree BA isn't going to be serving MAN long haul in the next 2-3 years at least, but some of the comments on here are just plain bonkers!
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:08 pm

You are allowed to admit when you are mistaken!

BA777FO wrote:
Publicly everything BA does or may do in the future is "constantly under review". If you asked BA for a comment on a rumour of a new flight from Heathrow to Timbuktu BA would respond with "no plans at the moment but we keep our network plan under constant review"!

Internally, they can be a bit more candid. Revenue managers and slot coordinators have poured cold water on it year after year.


The first sentence of Alex Cruz’s response - “I’ll give you the same answer I have given my staff, and the answer is “not yet.””. Assuming the reference to “my staff” means BA employees, the meaning of this sentence could not be clearer, yet you have completely ignored it!

Either you are saying the CEO of the major business of a listed entity is putting out misleading and/or false statements into the public domain, or on this point you are mistaken.

That you are not able or willing to acknowledge this when it is in black and white in front of you undermines my confidence in the accuracy of the other points you have made on this and other subjects.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:25 pm

IrishLessor wrote:
They have no short haul ex MAN except London, they need to feed London with all long haul aircraft to support the short haul network....


One of the advantages of flying from MAN is that you do not need much 'feed'; the excellent regional rail connections direct into the rail station at the airport does that for you, so the entire north of England is relatively easily accessible by rail from. most large northern towns........
 
SCQ83
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:30 pm

keesje wrote:
BA has an unbeatable network from LHR. Only low cost can try get around that. Manchester is a big, seperate market. BA isn't focussing LC.


Stansted has already Emirates or SAS. With LGW also getting full, STN getting more legacy carriers is a question of time. BA already serves some weekend summer leisure destinations.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:35 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
You are allowed to admit when you are mistaken!

BA777FO wrote:
Publicly everything BA does or may do in the future is "constantly under review". If you asked BA for a comment on a rumour of a new flight from Heathrow to Timbuktu BA would respond with "no plans at the moment but we keep our network plan under constant review"!

Internally, they can be a bit more candid. Revenue managers and slot coordinators have poured cold water on it year after year.


The first sentence of Alex Cruz’s response - “I’ll give you the same answer I have given my staff, and the answer is “not yet.””. Assuming the reference to “my staff” means BA employees, the meaning of this sentence could not be clearer, yet you have completely ignored it!

Either you are saying the CEO of the major business of a listed entity is putting out misleading and/or false statements into the public domain, or on this point you are mistaken.

That you are not able or willing to acknowledge this when it is in black and white in front of you undermines my confidence in the accuracy of the other points you have made on this and other subjects.


Alex Cruz hasn't really talked to his staff for quite a while, especially since the pilots grounded the airline for two days!

When slot coordinators, revenue management execs and especially network planners tell you it's unlikely to happen it's pretty nailed on not happening. Nothing misleading about "not yet" but "not yet" could also easily translate as not under my tenure.

No need to get personal though.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:53 pm

BA777FO wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
You are allowed to admit when you are mistaken!

BA777FO wrote:
Publicly everything BA does or may do in the future is "constantly under review". If you asked BA for a comment on a rumour of a new flight from Heathrow to Timbuktu BA would respond with "no plans at the moment but we keep our network plan under constant review"!

Internally, they can be a bit more candid. Revenue managers and slot coordinators have poured cold water on it year after year.


The first sentence of Alex Cruz’s response - “I’ll give you the same answer I have given my staff, and the answer is “not yet.””. Assuming the reference to “my staff” means BA employees, the meaning of this sentence could not be clearer, yet you have completely ignored it!

Either you are saying the CEO of the major business of a listed entity is putting out misleading and/or false statements into the public domain, or on this point you are mistaken.

That you are not able or willing to acknowledge this when it is in black and white in front of you undermines my confidence in the accuracy of the other points you have made on this and other subjects.


Alex Cruz hasn't really talked to his staff for quite a while, especially since the pilots grounded the airline for two days!

When slot coordinators, revenue management execs and especially network planners tell you it's unlikely to happen it's pretty nailed on not happening. Nothing misleading about "not yet" but "not yet" could also easily translate as not under my tenure.

No need to get personal though.


Nothing personal - just pointing out the facts.

There is nothing wrong with conceding a point once in a while, especially as clear as this one. As I say, not doing so only serves to undermine the weight of your other points.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2175
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:22 am

by738 wrote:
IADCA wrote:
As much as I like GLA, the huge difference for catchment between MAN and GLA (aside from England just being a lot more densely populated than Scotland) is the rail link. MAN has a pretty good one, with services all throughout the UK. GLA doesn't even have one to Glasgow itself. When that changes, GLA becomes a much better option.

Well funding for link just confirmed today as part of a metro tram network. Airport link first in line.


Yes. Hence "when," not "if."
 
BA777FO
Posts: 577
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:14 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
You are allowed to admit when you are mistaken!



The first sentence of Alex Cruz’s response - “I’ll give you the same answer I have given my staff, and the answer is “not yet.””. Assuming the reference to “my staff” means BA employees, the meaning of this sentence could not be clearer, yet you have completely ignored it!

Either you are saying the CEO of the major business of a listed entity is putting out misleading and/or false statements into the public domain, or on this point you are mistaken.

That you are not able or willing to acknowledge this when it is in black and white in front of you undermines my confidence in the accuracy of the other points you have made on this and other subjects.


Alex Cruz hasn't really talked to his staff for quite a while, especially since the pilots grounded the airline for two days!

When slot coordinators, revenue management execs and especially network planners tell you it's unlikely to happen it's pretty nailed on not happening. Nothing misleading about "not yet" but "not yet" could also easily translate as not under my tenure.

No need to get personal though.


Nothing personal - just pointing out the facts.

There is nothing wrong with conceding a point once in a while, especially as clear as this one. As I say, not doing so only serves to undermine the weight of your other points.


Except there's nothing to concede. Alex Cruz said "not yet". That's the diplomatic answer to a lot of stuff and doesn't commit him one way or the other. Those that would be responsible for actually organising and orchestrating this kind of thing say it's not happening.

But if you choose to not accept that then hey ho. Let me know when I can to fly them ;)
 
PHLCVGAMTK
Posts: 112
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:50 pm

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:21 am

A question for everyone upthread who has emphasised BA/IAG's focus on growing ROIC: Does ownership of a LHR/LGW slot pair count as "invested capital"? If so, IAG might see a higher ROIC by basing a few planes in MAN, even if the yields are slightly lower than in London.

That being said, count me as someone who thinks that this rumor mostly doesn't make sense. IAG already has DUB as a near-ideal non-London hub for ever-expanding TATL connections, especially as EI brings more A321LR/XLRs into its fleet to serve thin NorAm markets. Even to keep VS in check, it seems strange to overfly DUB and its pre-existing network of onward connections, which is far more useful for filling flights than building at MAN from scratch. And if the idea is just to fly to a bare handful of AA hubs, that seems like flying better left to AA. I suppose that BA might be getting more aircraft deliveries this year than AA, so it might make sense for BA to open the routes but to hand them over to AA when established, but at this point the hypotheticals are becoming too complex and layered to be given full credibility.

One more possibility that hasn't gotten much attention in this thread is that these routes might be going east (or south), not west. The rumor as retransmitted in the OP link didn't specify TATL, after all. That would make more sense than duplicating DUB, since it would be an entirely separate market and driven by Northern O&D. That said, MAN-South Asia is something of a yield double-whammy, as exemplified by the late, lamented 9W. We can also surmise that MAN-CAI/TLV/SVO/LOS/ACC wouldn't qualify as fulfilling the rumor, since even if the detail about 787s is wrong, it's clearly about wideboody long-haul, not Club World-equipped A321ceos.
 
standby87
Posts: 405
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2001 2:33 am

Re: Rumor: British Airways To Launch Long-Haul Flights From Manchester

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:43 am

tonystan wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Manchester is a far more user friendly airport than Heathrow. The British and Americans will be thrilled.


MAN is a hideous airport to use. The worst security experience of any airport in Europe in my opinion. I avoid it at all costs preferring to take the train or even drive from London.

Heathrow has transformed itself immensely in the last 11 years. It’s almost a pleasure to use and transit through.


MAN definitely has the worst security experience in Europe - or indeed Africa, Middle East or Asia...for that matter.
I too boycott Manchester Airport due to the Security experience.

Back on topic:
BA jumped off the boat and will never catch up.
The ME3 have effectively carved up the Eastbound longhaul market from MAN.
Best would be a MAN-JFK, but let's throw a curveball in ... MAN-BKK.

Yeah, Bangkok. Why not? I am sure I read somewhere MAN-BKK was the World's Largest O+D in terms of passengers with no Direct Service.
Someone correct me please!!

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