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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:05 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

A slow week as I suspected...

UA took it over last week
*9K DEC-ORD MAR 3>0.5[3] APR 3>0[3] MAY 3>0[3] JUN 3>0[3] JUL 3>0[3] AUG 3>0[3] SEP 3>0[3] OCT 3>0[3]
9K DEC-STL MAR 1.8>0.2[1.8] APR 1.9>0[1.9] MAY 1.8>0[1.9] JUN 1.9>0[1.8] JUL 1.9>0[1.9] AUG 1.8>0[1.9] SEP 1.9>0[1.8] OCT 1.9>0[1.9]

9X HNL-JHM FEB 1.6>3[0]

AV BOG-FLL JUN 1.0>1.6[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]

CZ CAN-JFK APR 1.4>1.0[1.4] SEP 2>1.5[1.2] OCT 1.8>1.3[0.9]
CZ CAN-LAX APR 1.4>1.0[1.3] MAY 1.5>1.0[1.4] SEP 1.4>1.0[1.0] OCT 1.3>1.0[0.9]

DL ATL-GRB APR 1.7>1.0[1.8]
DL ATL-SAN OCT 8>7[6]
DL BOS-PBI APR 0.9>0.6[0.7]
This one is going to have some cheap fares in it
*DL BOS-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[2] OCT 3>4[1.7]
DL COD-SLC JUL 1.0>1.3[1.3] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.3] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.3]
DL CVG-DTW SEP 5>6[5] OCT 5>6[5]
DL GJT-SLC APR 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3]
DL GTF-SLC JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
DL MSP-TVC OCT 0.5>0[0]
DL SEA-TUS APR 0.6>0.3[0]
DL SGU-SLC APR 4>5[4]
DL SLC-WYS OCT 0.8>0.4[0.4]

DY CDG-JFK OCT 0.6>0.9[1.0]
DY CDG-LAX OCT 0.9>1.1[1.0]

EI DUB-LAX MAR 0.3>0.8[0.8]

Shrink shrink shrink
FI JFK-KEF JUN 2>1.6[1.8] JUL 2>1.5[1.9]
FI KEF-ORD JUN 2>1.6[1.9] JUL 2>1.6[1.9] AUG 2.0>1.5[1.8]

Didn't last long
**HU LAS-PEK APR 0.4>0[0.4] MAY 0.5>0[0.4] JUN 0.4>0[0.4] JUL 0.4>0[0.4] AUG 0.4>0[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]

*LO IAD-WAW JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.4[0]

MU HNL-PVG FEB 0.9>0.6[0.9] MAR 0.9>0.4[0.9]

**PR CEB-LAX MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]

UA ATL-ORD APR 8>7[7]
UA DEN-ONT APR 3>2[1.9]
UA DEN-PHL APR 3>2[2]
UA DEN-SGU FEB 2>1.4[1.9]
UA IAH-IND APR 5>4[4]
UA IAH-PBI APR 2>1.0[1.0]
UA IAH-PDX APR 3>2[3]
UA IAH-PNS APR 5>4[4]
UA RDU-SFO APR 3>1.9[1.7]

VB GDL-LAX JUN 1.0>1.7[1.1] JUL 1.0>1.7[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.2]
*VB GDL-ORD JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
*VB MCO-MTY JUL 0>0.2[0]
*VB MTY-ORD JUL 0>0.2[0]

WS HNL-YYC MAR 0.4>0[0.3]
WS OGG-YEG MAR 0.3>0[0.3]
WS PHX-YEG MAR 1.4>1.1[1.6]
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:08 pm

Cebu to Los Angeles??? WOW.
EDIT: Didn’t realize this was a resumption.

I don’t think any sites have picked up on it? PR hasn’t even released anything about it.

Flights aren’t bookable yet though.
Last edited by Ishrion on Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:10 pm

enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]


Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:20 pm

 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:24 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]


Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.


This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]


Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.


This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.

If the market is so awful why is Delta going to such lengths to keep their own metal in MNL?
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:39 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:

Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.


This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.

If the market is so awful why is Delta going to such lengths to keep their own metal in MNL?


It’s a lot cheaper to fly 4-5 hours than 15. It’s cheap way to stay in the market.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:46 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


It sure is absolute indicative of something. All these flag carriers, notwithstanding the yield coming from said market, coming in to SEA to serve what should be DL nonstop, and on top of that codesharing with AS to get additional U.S. feed, which AS will likely do with the new PR service.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:54 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.

If the market is so awful why is Delta going to such lengths to keep their own metal in MNL?


It’s a lot cheaper to fly 4-5 hours than 15. It’s cheap way to stay in the market.

Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.
 
babastud
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:57 pm

I'm surprised by SEA-MNL don't think there is much demand for the route.
 
alfa164
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:00 pm

enilria wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
enilria wrote:
If the market is so awful why is Delta going to such lengths to keep their own metal in MNL?

It’s a lot cheaper to fly 4-5 hours than 15. It’s cheap way to stay in the market.

Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.


KE had maxed-out their available frequencies between Korea and Manila; adding the DL flight - as a part of their JV - allowed one more frequency that could be shared by both airlines. It was a low-risk, potentially valuable proposition, as it allows additional sales in an otherwise restricted market.

More passengers will probably be ICN-MNL, KE-ticketed travelers than any thru flyers from DL.
Last edited by alfa164 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
jrkmsp
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:01 pm

enilria wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
enilria wrote:
If the market is so awful why is Delta going to such lengths to keep their own metal in MNL?


It’s a lot cheaper to fly 4-5 hours than 15. It’s cheap way to stay in the market.

Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.


I believe the South Korea/Philippines treaty is maxed out. Korean carries can’t get more flights, so Delta keeping that flight is a way around that. If it were different, I don’t think you’d see Delta still flying there.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:13 pm

Happy New Year, enilria! Thanks again.

enilria wrote:
CZ CAN-JFK APR 1.4>1.0[1.4] SEP 2>1.5[1.2] OCT 1.8>1.3[0.9]
CZ CAN-LAX APR 1.4>1.0[1.3] MAY 1.5>1.0[1.4] SEP 1.4>1.0[1.0] OCT 1.3>1.0[0.9]

This is quite interesting. CZ runs just 1x from JFK/LAX outside peak month. I get the feeling the NYC/LA to Asian market yield condition is getting worse than even last year.

I recently got a R/T J fare NYC to southeast asia for under 2K on CA, when it was around 2.5K last year. And of course, MU is as cheap as ever.

This one is going to have some cheap fares in it
*DL BOS-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[2] OCT 3>4[1.7]

I assume this is in response to both AS and B6 adding a flight in the summer month. I really don't see how a couple of months (especially SEP/OCT) don't get reduction from this later on. There just isn't that much O&D here outside of those peak summer month. And DL runs far and away the lowest margin on this route.
**HU LAS-PEK APR 0.4>0[0.4] MAY 0.5>0[0.4] JUN 0.4>0[0.4] JUL 0.4>0[0.4] AUG 0.4>0[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]

A while back looking at itinerary from NYC to PEK, I was seeing a bunch of HU routes that went something like JFK-LAS on B6 + LAS-PEK at pretty low far. Hard to see how this was sustainable all along. And unlike CA, they don't have the Beijing gov't subsidizing them.

MU HNL-PVG FEB 0.9>0.6[0.9] MAR 0.9>0.4[0.9]

continues to surprise me how Chinese tourists haven't discovered HI yet. It's so much better than some of the other options around there.

**PR CEB-LAX MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]

Leaving along MNL-SEA, I don't see how a subdaily CEB-LAX is going to work. There is a ton of 1-stop options there at really low fares that makes 3x weekly non-stop really unattractive.
 
airlineaddict
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:

This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination.


And yet DL is dedicating metal to fly there from ICN???
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:17 pm

babastud wrote:
I'm surprised by SEA-MNL don't think there is much demand for the route.


They will probably go after some low yielding connecting traffic to places like Vietnam and Thailand as well. Philippines Airlines offers attractive fares for business class. $ 3,000 fares from LAX to Southeast Asia are common. It is terribly low yielding especially when they compete with Chinese a Operators who have flooded transpacific capacity.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:43 pm

alfa164 wrote:
enilria wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
It’s a lot cheaper to fly 4-5 hours than 15. It’s cheap way to stay in the market.

Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.


KE had maxed-out their available frequencies between Korea and Manila; adding the DL flight - as a part of their JV - allowed one more frequency that could be shared by both airlines. It was a low-risk, potentially valuable proposition, as it allows additional sales in an otherwise restricted market.

More passengers will probably be ICN-MNL, KE-ticketed travelers than any thru flyers from DL.

Good info, although the DL inflight soft-product is still very much inferior to the Asian carriers, so I would still assume they will carry bottom of the barrel traffic as they did in NRT-SE Asia.
tphuang wrote:
This is quite interesting. CZ runs just 1x from JFK/LAX outside peak month. I get the feeling the NYC/LA to Asian market yield condition is getting worse than even last year.

I recently got a R/T J fare NYC to southeast asia for under 2K on CA, when it was around 2.5K last year. And of course, MU is as cheap as ever.

CZ has publicly said they can't make money on CAN-USA routes. So not surprised.
tphuang wrote:
A while back looking at itinerary from NYC to PEK, I was seeing a bunch of HU routes that went something like JFK-LAS on B6 + LAS-PEK at pretty low far. Hard to see how this was sustainable all along. And unlike CA, they don't have the Beijing gov't subsidizing them.

You'd think there was traffic, but was low yield. It would be interesting to know if it was viable before the trade angst.
 
jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:16 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but I do have questions because people keep saying MNL is a low yield destination again I'm not questioning the low yield because that steers the conversation down a path I don't want to go down.

How has PR found success with their long haul service to the U.S.?
Compared to an airline like DL or even UA how much lower is PR's cost on their MNL-U.S. routes?
Is PR profitable on their own or are they being subsidized?
Being the only airline with nonstop service how much of a factor is that in their success?
If a U.S. carrier were to ever attempt a U.S.-MNL nonstop flight from SEA, SFO, LAX or even HNL what would the impact on the market be?
If a U.S. carrier entered the market what impact if any would they have on PR?
If it really does all come down to yield, how is PR making it work from LAX, SFO and JFK?
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:15 pm

It may seem unremarkable but the addition of more than a single daily for Avianca from Fort Lauderdale to Bogota is interesting. That route has been a single daily (AV 36/37) for as long as I can remember.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:20 pm

jayunited wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but I do have questions because people keep saying MNL is a low yield destination again I'm not questioning the low yield because that steers the conversation down a path I don't want to go down.

How has PR found success with their long haul service to the U.S.?
Compared to an airline like DL or even UA how much lower is PR's cost on their MNL-U.S. routes?
Is PR profitable on their own or are they being subsidized?
Being the only airline with nonstop service how much of a factor is that in their success?
If a U.S. carrier were to ever attempt a U.S.-MNL nonstop flight from SEA, SFO, LAX or even HNL what would the impact on the market be?
If a U.S. carrier entered the market what impact if any would they have on PR?
If it really does all come down to yield, how is PR making it work from LAX, SFO and JFK?

People said that Australia was low yield/all leisure and could never make money non-stop (even LAX-SYD was seen as a loser) and now service is proliferating. Hawaii is all leisure, although shorter, and seems to be doing so well that they are running out of room for tourists.

Part of the issue is that DL expects a margin of 15-20% profit because that is what the airline as a whole is achieving and you don't maintain that by adding routes that are expected to have results below that. OTOH, if your airline expects just to breakeven, already you can have fares 15-20% lower than DL wants and be "happy". That is a big piece of the equation here, but it makes Delta's decision to fly ICN-MNL even more confusing. I get that it helps out KE, but I still don't see how it makes money at a level that DL will be happy with.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:46 pm

enilria wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.


KE had maxed-out their available frequencies between Korea and Manila; adding the DL flight - as a part of their JV - allowed one more frequency that could be shared by both airlines. It was a low-risk, potentially valuable proposition, as it allows additional sales in an otherwise restricted market.

More passengers will probably be ICN-MNL, KE-ticketed travelers than any thru flyers from DL.

Good info, although the DL inflight soft-product is still very much inferior to the Asian carriers, so I would still assume they will carry bottom of the barrel traffic as they did in NRT-SE Asia.
tphuang wrote:
This is quite interesting. CZ runs just 1x from JFK/LAX outside peak month. I get the feeling the NYC/LA to Asian market yield condition is getting worse than even last year.

I recently got a R/T J fare NYC to southeast asia for under 2K on CA, when it was around 2.5K last year. And of course, MU is as cheap as ever.

CZ has publicly said they can't make money on CAN-USA routes. So not surprised.
tphuang wrote:
A while back looking at itinerary from NYC to PEK, I was seeing a bunch of HU routes that went something like JFK-LAS on B6 + LAS-PEK at pretty low far. Hard to see how this was sustainable all along. And unlike CA, they don't have the Beijing gov't subsidizing them.

You'd think there was traffic, but was low yield. It would be interesting to know if it was viable before the trade angst.


The U.S.- China trade thing is simply exposing what we’ve been suspecting for some time, that the Chinese economy is largely BS and hype. And as someone else just posted, the Chinese airlines have been over saturating the trans-Pacific markets. At some point, reality has to set in for both the Chinese economy and routes to/from China.
 
x1234
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:54 pm

The difference between Australia & China is that Australia is a high-income economy similar to the USA and they aren't flooding the market with below average fares and the J/F makes up for it. Last time I checked J for AUS-USA non-stop is $8-10k USD.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:55 pm

enilria wrote:
jayunited wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but I do have questions because people keep saying MNL is a low yield destination again I'm not questioning the low yield because that steers the conversation down a path I don't want to go down.

How has PR found success with their long haul service to the U.S.?
Compared to an airline like DL or even UA how much lower is PR's cost on their MNL-U.S. routes?
Is PR profitable on their own or are they being subsidized?
Being the only airline with nonstop service how much of a factor is that in their success?
If a U.S. carrier were to ever attempt a U.S.-MNL nonstop flight from SEA, SFO, LAX or even HNL what would the impact on the market be?
If a U.S. carrier entered the market what impact if any would they have on PR?
If it really does all come down to yield, how is PR making it work from LAX, SFO and JFK?

People said that Australia was low yield/all leisure and could never make money non-stop (even LAX-SYD was seen as a loser) and now service is proliferating. Hawaii is all leisure, although shorter, and seems to be doing so well that they are running out of room for tourists.


It's worth noting that the US-Australian market is much different now than it was in the past. Business investment on both ends has skyrocketed in recent years, making the dynamics of the market much different than it was in the past.
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panamair
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:59 pm

enilria wrote:
Good info, although the DL inflight soft-product is still very much inferior to the Asian carriers.


How will DL’s soft product necessarily be inferior? They are going to be using mostly MNL-based Filipino cabin crews (except for the US-based purser and “chaser”). Are you saying that Filipinos are worse than Koreans in providing service?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:01 pm

panamair, the problem with KE is that KE's J product is OUTDATED and still not 1-2-1 direct aisle access especially on the A330's they use for regional Asian flights.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:54 pm

enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]

I believe that puts PR at about 45 or 50 weekly nonstop flights between Manila and North America.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:59 pm

panamair wrote:
enilria wrote:
Good info, although the DL inflight soft-product is still very much inferior to the Asian carriers.


How will DL’s soft product necessarily be inferior? They are going to be using mostly MNL-based Filipino cabin crews (except for the US-based purser and “chaser”). Are you saying that Filipinos are worse than Koreans in providing service?

Have you flown some of the premium asian carriers?
 
cityairline
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:38 pm

Philippine Airlines is getting really big in North America!

MNL-YYZ: Daily 359
MNL-YVR: Daily 77W
MNL-JFK: Daily 359
MNL-HNL: 5 weekly 333
MNL-SEA: 3 weekly 359
MNL-SFO: 14 weekly 77W
MNL-LAX: 14-17 weekly
CEB-LAX: 3 weekly 77W

An average of nine daily flights!
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
IPFreely
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:21 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


Trash yields? “Trash” doesn’t mean anything. What were the profit margins on past US-MNL routes flown by US carriers and how do those margins compare to other TPAC routes that could be flown with the same equipment instead of MNL? Like secondary China, GUM, etc.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:
enilria wrote:
Good info, although the DL inflight soft-product is still very much inferior to the Asian carriers.


How will DL’s soft product necessarily be inferior? They are going to be using mostly MNL-based Filipino cabin crews (except for the US-based purser and “chaser”). Are you saying that Filipinos are worse than Koreans in providing service?

Have you flown some of the premium asian carriers?


I just flew JAL and AA to/from Asia on 77Ws. The AA FAs were far better at service. Granted, I'm white, and I could communicate with them far better (the JAL FA's English was very shoddy).
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Lapplander800
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:08 am

enilria wrote:
Shrink shrink shrink
FI JFK-KEF JUN 2>1.6[1.8] JUL 2>1.5[1.9]
FI KEF-ORD JUN 2>1.6[1.9] JUL 2>1.6[1.9] AUG 2.0>1.5[1.8]


While relatively minor, the question is if it a true shrink due to market realities or a risk mitigation manuver to deal with the fact that they will possibly be short of the 14 737MAX that should have been in operation at the start of S20 according to the original delivery plan. 5 had been scheduled for delivery in 2020 in addition to the 6 frames built in 2019 which all have yet to see revenue service.
 
n7371f
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:42 am

Yep. Phillipines coming 3x a week is really going to destroy Delta at SEA. :lol:

phatfarmlines wrote:
enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]


Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.
 
Ebmek
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:15 am

babastud wrote:
I'm surprised by SEA-MNL don't think there is much demand for the route.


The Filipino population in the state of Washington and especially Seattle and the immediate surrounding areas is the fifth largest in the United States.This route does not surprise me one bit.

phatfarmlines wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
This is indicative of absolutely nothing as there are no U.S. carriers flying US50 non-stop to MNL. It's oft-repeated, but some are slow to learn - MNL is a trash (yield) destination. PR can have it.


It sure is absolute indicative of something. All these flag carriers, notwithstanding the yield coming from said market, coming in to SEA to serve what should be DL nonstop, and on top of that codesharing with AS to get additional U.S. feed, which AS will likely do with the new PR service.


The Philippines may be low-yield, but you have year round guaranteed capacity back home to the Philippines for immigrants that would love to visit family for the holidays or any time of year for any reason. (And the premium cabins get filled with businessmen for the booming telemarket and IT industry in the Philippines due to English being a taught language, and rich husbands with Filipina wives) PR has the additional benefit of being from a Southeast Asian nation with lower expenditures in regards to their employees and supplies, their ability to launch these flights from their home base, and almost really any country from that part of the world to Seattle, is a direct reflection of the cheaper cost of opening up routes from that side of the Pacific as opposed to the US side.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:31 am

maps4ltd wrote:
tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:

How will DL’s soft product necessarily be inferior? They are going to be using mostly MNL-based Filipino cabin crews (except for the US-based purser and “chaser”). Are you saying that Filipinos are worse than Koreans in providing service?

Have you flown some of the premium asian carriers?


I just flew JAL and AA to/from Asia on 77Ws. The AA FAs were far better at service. Granted, I'm white, and I could communicate with them far better (the JAL FA's English was very shoddy).


So, your view of the service provided is based upon the ability of the providers ability to speak English? I've flown JAL inter-Asia multiple times and, even with a language barrier, the cabin crew was far superior to that of ANY US-based airline. Maybe it's you and the condescending attitude towards those that don't speak English well?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:26 pm

usflyguy wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Have you flown some of the premium asian carriers?


I just flew JAL and AA to/from Asia on 77Ws. The AA FAs were far better at service. Granted, I'm white, and I could communicate with them far better (the JAL FA's English was very shoddy).


So, your view of the service provided is based upon the ability of the providers ability to speak English? I've flown JAL inter-Asia multiple times and, even with a language barrier, the cabin crew was far superior to that of ANY US-based airline. Maybe it's you and the condescending attitude towards those that don't speak English well?


Getting off topic, but I'll take JL 3-3-3 77W over AA 3-4-3 77W all day long.

Getting back on topic...

enilria wrote:
**HU LAS-PEK APR 0.4>0[0.4] MAY 0.5>0[0.4] JUN 0.4>0[0.4] JUL 0.4>0[0.4] AUG 0.4>0[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]


This was announced back in October anyway:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ght=hainan

This leave KE as the only East Asian carrier left at LAS.

tphuang wrote:
continues to surprise me how Chinese tourists haven't discovered HI yet. It's so much better than some of the other options around there.


Do you really want hordes of mainland Chinese tourists taking over Hawaii also?

To be really fair, though, getting a tourist visa to US is a fair pain compare to places like Thailand (Visa on Arrival or nowaday, e-visa). Even getting a Schnegen Visa is not as complicated as the process is simplified for Chinese citizens.

And unlike routes to, let say, LAX or NYC, the traffic to/from HNL is more or less unidirectional (i.e. Tourist to/from PRC) instead of bidirectional (Tourism from PRC + VFR from USA).
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:40 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:

Getting off topic, but I'll take JL 3-3-3 77W over AA 3-4-3 77W all day long.

Getting back on topic...

tphuang wrote:
continues to surprise me how Chinese tourists haven't discovered HI yet. It's so much better than some of the other options around there.


Do you really want hordes of mainland Chinese tourists taking over Hawaii also?

To be really fair, though, getting a tourist visa to US is a fair pain compare to places like Thailand (Visa on Arrival or nowaday, e-visa). Even getting a Schnegen Visa is not as complicated as the process is simplified for Chinese citizens.

And unlike routes to, let say, LAX or NYC, the traffic to/from HNL is more or less unidirectional (i.e. Tourist to/from PRC) instead of bidirectional (Tourism from PRC + VFR from USA).


I actually find JL to be quite overrated. I like CX a lot better. Hard product better, lounge better and always find the service to be great. CX lounges in HKG are head and shoulders ahead of anything in America. Those who rave about SkyClub or Flagship first need to try out the Pier. Haven't flown SQ, but always heard it to be really great too. Honestly, even CA J service is amazingly good considering how low the fare are. It's a real hidden gem for people going to Asia. Their lounge on the end is horrible.

As for HI, having hordes of mainland Chinese tourists will be no more different than already having Japanese tourists turning Waikiki central into the Golden Gai. Besides, American tourists can always hit up the other 3 islands. Asian tourists rarely leave the comfort of Oahu.

Visa is one thing, but it continues to astound me that Hainan is so ridiculously expensive and Maldives somehow became the place to go when HNL is not any further to fly to and has far more stuff going on. Even in Phuket, you are more likely to see Russians there than Chinese.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:47 pm

Interesting that PR did MNL-SEA but not MNL-SAN. Guess they figure people will just hump it to LAX.
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:42 pm

I can see PAL becoming daily at SEA once they launch, its very comparable to their current YVR-MNL flight.
 
dcajet
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:46 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
It may seem unremarkable but the addition of more than a single daily for Avianca from Fort Lauderdale to Bogota is interesting. That route has been a single daily (AV 36/37) for as long as I can remember.


This is Avianca's competitive response to JetBlue's second daily between FLL & BOG, that runs from 6/11 to 9/8/20. Both airlines' flights have similar schedules ex-BOG:

B6 1957 FLL 20:25 BOG 23:03
B6 1958 BOG 00:10 FLL 05:02

AV118 BOG 00:05 FLL 05:00
AV119 FLL 09:15 BOG 12:00
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
leftcoast8
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:02 pm

Ebmek wrote:
babastud wrote:
I'm surprised by SEA-MNL don't think there is much demand for the route.


The Filipino population in the state of Washington and especially Seattle and the immediate surrounding areas is the fifth largest in the United States.This route does not surprise me one bit.


Lots of Filipinos live in the International District, Beacon Hill, Columbia City, Rainier Beach, etc. There's a park and bridge in Seattle named after Filipino revolutionary Jose Rizal.
 
bcbhokie
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:48 pm

For the skeptics on the DL-operated ICN-MNL flight, keep in mind that it is largely an aircraft utilization move, maximizing the usage Delta gets out of its fleet operating flights to the JV hub in ICN. MNL is a relatively short route compared to the other cities Delta gave up flying to when shutting down NRT, making it low hanging fruit to keep.

Also, Delta will offer one of the best regional J products in all of Asia on this route. You can’t pay me enough to book CX’s garbage regional seat that barely qualifies as premium economy - in comparison, this flight will offer the Suites product from the 330-900neo.

I think Delta is going after a totally different market here than SEA-MNL direct - they’re basically picking up found money on the floor by keeping this simple intra-Asia route alive using resources they already have available. I completely agree this makes a DL operated SEA-MNL unlikely, but I seriously doubt that was happening anyway...
 
maps4ltd
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:21 am

usflyguy wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Have you flown some of the premium asian carriers?


I just flew JAL and AA to/from Asia on 77Ws. The AA FAs were far better at service. Granted, I'm white, and I could communicate with them far better (the JAL FA's English was very shoddy).


So, your view of the service provided is based upon the ability of the providers ability to speak English? I've flown JAL inter-Asia multiple times and, even with a language barrier, the cabin crew was far superior to that of ANY US-based airline. Maybe it's you and the condescending attitude towards those that don't speak English well?


As a flight going from Chicago with a decent load of Americans on what is consistently ranked one of the world's most premier airlines, then I would expect a stronger proficiency in English, yes.
Delta Gold Medallion
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:05 pm

bcbhokie wrote:
For the skeptics on the DL-operated ICN-MNL flight, keep in mind that it is largely an aircraft utilization move, maximizing the usage Delta gets out of its fleet operating flights to the JV hub in ICN. MNL is a relatively short route compared to the other cities Delta gave up flying to when shutting down NRT, making it low hanging fruit to keep.

Also, Delta will offer one of the best regional J products in all of Asia on this route. You can’t pay me enough to book CX’s garbage regional seat that barely qualifies as premium economy - in comparison, this flight will offer the Suites product from the 330-900neo.

I think Delta is going after a totally different market here than SEA-MNL direct - they’re basically picking up found money on the floor by keeping this simple intra-Asia route alive using resources they already have available. I completely agree this makes a DL operated SEA-MNL unlikely, but I seriously doubt that was happening anyway...

Yeah no. Actually, it will be one of the worst utilized airplanes in all of DL's network. It departs at 1940 from ICN, goes to MNL. Sits for 11:40 then arrives back at 1525 into ICN and sits until 1920 when it departs for SEA. So the plane only flies for about 8.5 hours per day. So certainly not being done for utilization, LOL.
 
SQ317
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:37 pm

Where are the frames coming from to facilitate this PR expansion? Presumably the seasonal reduction of MNL-LAX from 17 to 14 weekly (https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... 20airlines) is being made permanent to free up a 77W, what about MNL-SEA? Is utilisation sufficiently low enough with the A359s to allow this new route or is something else being canned?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:46 am

phatfarmlines wrote:
enilria wrote:
**PR MNL-SEA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]


Ouch for DL. That SEA gateway to Asia is looking lackluster at best. Hopefully once the new IAB facilities are finished in Concourse A, then DL can take a hard look at their SEA-Asia network.


My impression is that DL wants to use KE to connect everywhere else across the Pacific besides PEK/PVG/TYO/KIX/NGO/ICN. A lot of business passengers that need to go to MNL usually travel via an Asian hub already, and by refocusing its network on KE connections out of ICN, DL will be able to offer one-stop connections to the Philippines, even if it will only be doing half the flying. Not sure how that will work in the pilot agreement, but I believe we'll see DL continue to pull back its own metal across the Pacific or use it to offer more connections to the markets it already serves in Asia.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/5/2020:PR Adds MNL-SEA,CEB-LAX;HU Drops LAS-PEK

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:50 pm

enilria wrote:
Cheaper maybe, but if the market is a low yield ethnic market why isn’t Delta letting Korean cover it? Flying a route like ICN-MNL with basically no ability to sell the local market (legally they can sell, but zero brand presence) is seemingly not “cheap”. If you are right losing 15% flying SEA-MNL might be the same as losing 50% flying MNL-ICN. Local traffic typically carries a market and provides all the good yield. Not an option here.


DL has full fifth freedom rights on this flight (as is currently the case with NRT-MNL), and they have a significant brand presence in the Philippines. Not sure about Korea, but I imagine the growing market between the two countries will help propel this flight.

panamair wrote:
How will DL’s soft product necessarily be inferior? They are going to be using mostly MNL-based Filipino cabin crews (except for the US-based purser and “chaser”). Are you saying that Filipinos are worse than Koreans in providing service?


When I flew MNL-NRT last month, the flight crew was MNL, NRT and HNL-based, with only 2-3 MNL-based F/As on-board. Hardly a majority. I imagine the shift to ICN will lead to DL using MNL and SEA-based F/As, but I'm left to wonder what the proportion will be. (Truth be told, I've seen more Filipino F/As operating DL domestic flights, but that's probably because I don't really fly DL internationally that much to begin with.)

alfa164 wrote:
KE had maxed-out their available frequencies between Korea and Manila; adding the DL flight - as a part of their JV - allowed one more frequency that could be shared by both airlines. It was a low-risk, potentially valuable proposition, as it allows additional sales in an otherwise restricted market.


Again, not entirely true. As mentioned a few months ago, and contrary to what people on A.net seem to think, Philippine authorities wouldn't allow DL to go around the restrictions imposed by the Philippines-South Korea bilateral. DL's ability to fly to MNL thus is coming at KE's expense, using Korean rather than American entitlements.

alfa164 wrote:
More passengers will probably be ICN-MNL, KE-ticketed travelers than any thru flyers from DL.


DL has an MNL point of sale, and the flight isn't codeshared with KE to begin with. If people went out of their way to fly DL to NRT, I imagine they'd do the same going to ICN, no?

I should also note that DL's U.S.-MNL operation is largely driven by Filipinos in the eastern U.S., as opposed to here in the west where partner airlines (KE/MU/CZ/CI/MF) have a much stronger presence. MNL-NRT is driven by O/D, yes, but I imagine a significant number are also connecting to DTW, MSP and ATL. That shouldn't change with a shift to ICN.

SQ317 wrote:
Where are the frames coming from to facilitate this PR expansion? Presumably the seasonal reduction of MNL-LAX from 17 to 14 weekly (https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... 20airlines) is being made permanent to free up a 77W, what about MNL-SEA? Is utilisation sufficiently low enough with the A359s to allow this new route or is something else being canned?


It's partially that, I imagine, but also it's been hinted that PR may soon decide to exercise its remaining A350 options, which would free up additional capacity.

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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos