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stranger706
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Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:19 am

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/news-2644058020.html

People are posting this article on Facebook. I'm not sure if its legitimate or not.

Quotes from article

"6:00am (11:00 UTC) - January 5, 2020 - by Sylvain Faust for fliegerfaust.com

Interesting is what I heard through the grapevine about Airbus lately. Airbus would currently be planning for 2 additional assembly lines in North America.

Mobile, Alabama would be the location where "another" A320 production line is to be added. This US Airbus facility is already home of one A320 FAL (final assembly line) and one A220 (aka Bombardier CSeries) FAL.

Airbus would be building another A320 FAL in Mobile, making it two for this model. Local officials offered Airbus interesting incentive and the "official" announcement is to come shortly according to what I heard."

Also goes on to talk about another A350 FAL and possible military FAL. I don't know some of it sounds kind of crazy. I could believe another A320 FAL but not sure about the others.
 
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flee
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 am

If the rumours are true, I would imagine more A220 and A320 lines are urgently required.

Military? What aircraft would they need to assemble, A330 MRTT?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:30 am

Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:09 am

Francoflier wrote:
Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?


There is no need for an A321 only line, every Airbus A320 family FAL apart from the two oldest in TLS, can do A321. The current FAL in Mobile could go A321 only. Adjustment between types takes 2.5 minutes at each station. At the new #4 FAL in XFW no adjustment is needed, a new FAL in Mobile would be similar.
 
airzona11
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:25 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?


There is no need for an A321 only line, every Airbus A320 family FAL apart from the two oldest in TLS, can do A321. The current FAL in Mobile could go A321 only. Adjustment between types takes 2.5 minutes at each station. At the new #4 FAL in XFW no adjustment is needed, a new FAL in Mobile would be similar.


That’s fascinating. Very impressive and another reason why there are so few major players for major commercial aircraft.
 
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zeke
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:32 am

Would the second FAL be the “B“ plant, producing those B320s I read about for time to time in the media ?
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juliuswong
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:31 am

How soon can they up and running if the news is true? How about the soon to be vacant A380 lines?
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mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:12 am

juliuswong wrote:
How soon can they up and running if the news is true? How about the soon to be vacant A380 lines?


The FAL #4 is in a former A380 outfitting hangar. To use a former A380 hangar the next FAL would need to be built in XFW or TLS. I would assume a new FAL in BFM would be specially to support USA production ramp up. It would need a new building in BFM.

But Airbus does not need a new FAL to ramp past 60 frames a month. The current capacities are, XFW 34, TLS 16 and BFM and TSN are each theoretical 8, though running at a lower rate. So theoretical capacity is 66 frames. If TLS does 16, XFW 32 and TSN and BFM 6 each, it is already 60 frames.
So a new FAL in about 2 years could support a ramp up to 70 frames and above. It took about a year to build FAL #4 in the hangar at XFW.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:15 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?


There is no need for an A321 only line, every Airbus A320 family FAL apart from the two oldest in TLS, can do A321. The current FAL in Mobile could go A321 only. Adjustment between types takes 2.5 minutes at each station. At the new #4 FAL in XFW no adjustment is needed, a new FAL in Mobile would be similar.



And yet, the A321 is only produced in HAM, which is encountering difficulties implementing the new production processes and Airbus is planning a possible A321-only line in TLS in lieu of the dying A380 line...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1UW1VN

The demand is shifting to the A321 and I suspect reconfiguring lines for one to the other is not as easy as it sounds, especially since the 321 is getting increasingly different from its smaller siblings.
With that many production lines and that many orders, it is more efficient to have dedicated lines for specific models rather than juggling from one to the other on multiple lines.
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sciing
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:58 am

Francoflier wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
And yet, the A321 is only produced in HAM.

O.k. so the 120 A321 build in and delivered from Mobile were just fakes?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:02 am

Francoflier wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?


There is no need for an A321 only line, every Airbus A320 family FAL apart from the two oldest in TLS, can do A321. The current FAL in Mobile could go A321 only. Adjustment between types takes 2.5 minutes at each station. At the new #4 FAL in XFW no adjustment is needed, a new FAL in Mobile would be similar.



And yet, the A321 is only produced in HAM, which is encountering difficulties implementing the new production processes and Airbus is planning a possible A321-only line in TLS in lieu of the dying A380 line...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1UW1VN

The demand is shifting to the A321 and I suspect reconfiguring lines for one to the other is not as easy as it sounds, especially since the 321 is getting increasingly different from its smaller siblings.
With that many production lines and that many orders, it is more efficient to have dedicated lines for specific models rather than juggling from one to the other on multiple lines.


The A321ceo and neo are produced in BFM. Check before you make statements. An example for A321-271 produced in BFM are MSN974 and 9223 produced for Hawaiian Airlines. A321ceo have been produced for example for Delta, MSN9176, You will find also A321 produced for JetBlue and American Airlines. I think if you start counting, you will find more A321 assembled in BFM than A320. And the A320 and A321 are assembled freely mixed in BFM, not in in batches.

Just once more, the A320 family FALs are not the problem, supply line (pre FAL production) and outfitting (post FAL production) are. That is combined with still low availability of high thrust LEAP engines. Quite a few more A321-27x have been delivered than A321-25x. Even if the order situation is the other way round.

The problem with reading articles is, that they often do not get the information completely right.

That is I think the reason, why the next new A320 family FAL could be build in BFM:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wto- ... SKBN1WI04K

The frames assembled in BFM are not hit by the tariffs, nor the components needed.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
mwhcvt
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:11 am

I maybe wrong but I believe the BFM FAL and the TSN FAL both currently have a monthly output of 4x A320 Family aircraft however as both follow the same design and were built with the capacity to produce up to 8 aircraft a month so a second FAL at either location might be a bit far, but I could completely see authorisation to increase staffing and production at both lines subject to logistical support as the key factors would be parts production both internally and third parties and the ability to get those parts to the FALs

Where it gets interesting is that the A337 aka the new BelugaXL has unlike the A300 Beluga gone through full certifications and a 6th frame has already been ordered, so should airbus wish the could increase the fleet still further and start delivery via air to the non European FALs
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
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stasisLAX
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:25 am

I seriously doubt that its going to be an A320/321 FAL. Given the high demand for the A220, its likely that another A220 FAL is coming online.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:36 am

mwhcvt wrote:
I maybe wrong but I believe the BFM FAL and the TSN FAL both currently have a monthly output of 4x A320 Family aircraft however as both follow the same design and were built with the capacity to produce up to 8 aircraft a month so a second FAL at either location might be a bit far, but I could completely see authorisation to increase staffing and production at both lines subject to logistical support as the key factors would be parts production both internally and third parties and the ability to get those parts to the FALs

Where it gets interesting is that the A337 aka the new BelugaXL has unlike the A300 Beluga gone through full certifications and a 6th frame has already been ordered, so should airbus wish the could increase the fleet still further and start delivery via air to the non European FALs


You are wrong.

The standard A320 family FAL at Airbus has a capacity of 8 frames a month. That applies to FAL #1 #2 and #3 in XFW. BFM is a to a big part a slightly modernized copy of FAL #3 in XFW. To ramp BFM up the talk was about more peripheral equipment or buildings. In BFM, there is no limit to expanding staffing or infrastructure, as expansion is part of the plan from the beginning. I think inside certain limits, Airbus can just expand in BFM and the Authorities there are happy with any expansion. BFM is ramping to 6 a month, but it can be delayed by supply line problems.

The situation in TSN is rather different. The FAL is again a copy of one of the FALs, #2 or #3, in XFW and capable of 8 frames. Again the FAL should be able to do A319, A320 and A321. But in TSN there are certain contracts with the Chinese government. As it is, I think the ramp to 6 frames is in the contract and being prepared, but the production as it is, is limited to A319 and A320 only. I would assume the investments and contracts are connected to the Chinese buying a certain number of frames.

I think the journalist got one thing wrong, a new FAL in TLS is thought for the A321XLR, but as far as I know, there is no yet known any problem with doing them on the current FALs being able to take the A321.

Regarding ramp up in BFM.
https://www.al.com/news/mobile/2019/02/ ... obile.html
Last edited by mjoelnir on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:02 am

Talking about delivery troubles at Airbus, is hiding the fact, that 2019 was a record year for Airbus in narrow body deliveries, bothe with an increase for the A320 family and the A220 family.

If there is talk about problems in XFW, it does not need to be the FAL. XFW is producing fuselage parts for all Airbus frames. For the A320, it is the aft part of the fuselage, including the wing box (the wing box itself comes from France). XFW is the design center for outfitting at Airbus, troubles with outfitting has therefor to be laid at the feet of XFW. In regards to BFM and TSN, in XFW are the shipsets prepared, for TSN today without wings.
So I assume trouble, stays at home in XFW. If there are no A321 ship set ready for BFM, they will get a A320 set, to not disturb the workflow there

I regards to engine shortages. I believe that P&W is still working in upgrading engines that were delivered to Airbus, but could not be used for customer deliveries, because they did not conform to the current standard. I also believe the number of new engines for the assembly lines are still tight.
In regard to LEAP engines for the A321neo. We saw 103 A321neo delivered with GTF last year and only 60 with LEAP engines. I would have expected an even number and I believe that high thrust LEAP engines are not yet available in sufficient numbers. 40 more A321neo with LEAP engines would nearly cancel the shortfall we see for A320 family deliveries in 2019.

So there could be a multitude of reasons why the A320 family production and especially the A321 has issues, but as long as we see a lot of frames standing around after being assembled, I have little believe that the FALs themselves can not cope.

If we are Airbus fans, we can console us with 640 delivered narrow bodies (excluding the A220) and that is an new record for any airframe producer.
 
mwhcvt
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:51 am

mjoelnir wrote:
mwhcvt wrote:
I maybe wrong but I believe the BFM FAL and the TSN FAL both currently have a monthly output of 4x A320 Family aircraft however as both follow the same design and were built with the capacity to produce up to 8 aircraft a month so a second FAL at either location might be a bit far, but I could completely see authorisation to increase staffing and production at both lines subject to logistical support as the key factors would be parts production both internally and third parties and the ability to get those parts to the FALs

Where it gets interesting is that the A337 aka the new BelugaXL has unlike the A300 Beluga gone through full certifications and a 6th frame has already been ordered, so should airbus wish the could increase the fleet still further and start delivery via air to the non European FALs


You are wrong.

The standard A320 family FAL at Airbus has a capacity of 8 frames a month. That applies to FAL #1 #2 and #3 in XFW. BFM is a to a big part a slightly modernized copy of FAL #3 in XFW. To ramp BFM up the talk was about more peripheral equipment or buildings. In BFM, there is no limit to expanding staffing or infrastructure, as expansion is part of the plan from the beginning. I think inside certain limits, Airbus can just expand in BFM and the Authorities there are happy with any expansion. BFM is ramping to 6 a month, but it can be delayed by supply line problems.

The situation in TSN is rather different. The FAL is again a copy of one of the FALs, #2 or #3, in XFW and capable of 8 frames. Again the FAL should be able to do A319, A320 and A321. But in TSN there are certain contracts with the Chinese government. As it is, I think the ramp to 6 frames is in the contract and being prepared, but the production as it is, is limited to A319 and A320 only. I would assume the investments and contracts are connected to the Chinese buying a certain number of frames.

I think the journalist got one thing wrong, a new FAL in TLS is thought for the A321XLR, but as far as I know, there is no yet known any problem with doing them on the current FALs being able to take the A321.

Regarding ramp up in BFM.
https://www.al.com/news/mobile/2019/02/ ... obile.html


Well colour me confused you quite emphatically say I’m wrong but the practically say in the next breath that what said in regards designed capacity of the two FALs is for a max production of 8 frames per month so I’m struggling to see where I’m so wrong?
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:59 pm

It tells me being isn't going to very well building planes
 
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:20 pm

Thunderbolt500 wrote:
It tells me being isn't going to very well building planes

UH??? What does that mean?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The A321ceo and neo are produced in BFM. Check before you make statements.


Yes mom.

Except my statement stands.
Airbus mainly only produces the A321 on one line.

BFM has produced a few (relatively to the total output) because it is the only line that Airbus has which is not subject to import tariffs in the US. They'd rather produce as much of the US-bound backlog there, whatever it is. The point is that if it was that easy for them to switch from one to the other, they'd do it in other lines.

If the new line is for the A32X instead of the A220, and given that the backlog is approaching parity, I still believe that they might make a line dedicated to the 321. It would still be modular, as are all the other lines, and able to produce 320s if required, but they obviously prefer to stick to one type per line if they can.

Anyhow. The $5 is still on the table.
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:53 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
That is I think the reason, why the next new A320 family FAL could be build in BFM:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wto- ... SKBN1WI04K

The frames assembled in BFM are not hit by the tariffs, nor the components needed.

Indeed. Now that the 737 production stand down has influenced CFM to shift some LEAP-1A production to the USA, we could see US-sourced CFMs and Canadian sourced PWs (ex-Mirabel) being attached to USA sourced Airbus airframes. Alabama is a right to work state and not likely to change. As above there is a rumor of local government encouragement of an expansion, with details unspecified. All of this could shift the balance towards expansion at BFM.
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:37 pm

May I be skeptical about this news!? AFAIK what is needed to ramp up production is pre-FAL facilities and simplified logistics.
Also please educate me about the locations of the Hamburg FAL's. The situation is AFAIK much more complicated than described here.
About the A350 FAL in the US; I only expect a cabin outfitting facility, like the A330 facility in China. Reason Logistics.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
That is I think the reason, why the next new A320 family FAL could be build in BFM:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wto- ... SKBN1WI04K

The frames assembled in BFM are not hit by the tariffs, nor the components needed.

Indeed. Now that the 737 production stand down has influenced CFM to shift some LEAP-1A production to the USA, we could see US-sourced CFMs and Canadian sourced PWs (ex-Mirabel) being attached to USA sourced Airbus airframes. Alabama is a right to work state and not likely to change. As above there is a rumor of local government encouragement of an expansion, with details unspecified. All of this could shift the balance towards expansion at BFM.


Companies don't make investments in property and plant (40-yr depreciation) and equipment (typically 7-yr depreciation) to solve what should be a short-term tariff problem. We can expect the EU case against Boeing to proceed at the WTO, tariffs against U.S. products to be approved, and tariffs implemented by the EU. At that point there are U.S. tariffs against Airbus, EU tariffs against Boeing, and the logical thing (even for the Trump administration) is to negotiate an end to both tariffs. Countervailing tariffs just drive up costs for carriers (and consumers) and depress manufacturing employment.

IMHO it's too soon to declare a permanent shift in the Airbus demand curve warranting incremental production of ~20 frames a month. You certainly can expect the State of Alabama to throw subsidies at every big-industry opportunity, however.

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/09/01/busi ... plant.html
https://siteselection.com/ssinsider/inc ... ti9906.htm
https://www.al.com/live/2011/04/alabama ... id_to.html
https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.or ... ndai-motor
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 022925001/
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-air ... -us-2012-7

(That may lead to another Boeing trade complaint - oh, joy.)
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
...
We can expect the EU case against Boeing to proceed at the WTO, tariffs against U.S. products to be approved, and tariffs implemented by the EU. At that point there are U.S. tariffs against Airbus, EU tariffs against Boeing, and the logical thing (even for the Trump administration) is to negotiate an end to both tariffs. ...


Not so fast. US managed to close the door for further WTO Appellate mechanism functioning (and further rulings):
https://time.com/5746978/wto-appeals-court/

With one hand, US will be applying the decisions that it had time to secure, before it shut down WTO mechanisms.
On the the other hand, same US will appeal any WTO rulings (it doesn't like) to Appellate -- and with Appellate being in abeyance, no action will be legitimate.

Kind of shrewd. In Smoot-Hawley kind of way. Last time, Smoot-Hawley catalyzed a depression, that eventually blew up into a world war. Let's see, what happens this time.
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:25 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Companies don't make investments in property and plant (40-yr depreciation) and equipment (typically 7-yr depreciation) to solve what should be a short-term tariff problem.

CFM recently did just that, spent capital dollars to set up US facilities to produce the LEAP-1A to solve a problem whose duration should be measured in months. Given the proper motivations, it seems these large international corporations find value in diversifying their industrial footprints. I think there will be fiscal advantages to delivering US manufactured content to US airline customers regardless of WTO outcomes.
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catiii
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:45 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Given that delivering their current NEO backlog is their biggest issue at the moment, and add to that the trade war and tariffs, this would be a no brainer.

$5 that it's an A321 NEO only line... any takers?


They also cannot deliver a narrowbody on time since they rolled out ACF, with massive delays to carrier delivery schedules. A new FAL won't fix that problem. They need better supply chain management and better processes.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:10 am

Francoflier wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The A321ceo and neo are produced in BFM. Check before you make statements.


Yes mom.

Except my statement stands.
Airbus mainly only produces the A321 on one line.

BFM has produced a few (relatively to the total output) because it is the only line that Airbus has which is not subject to import tariffs in the US. They'd rather produce as much of the US-bound backlog there, whatever it is. The point is that if it was that easy for them to switch from one to the other, they'd do it in other lines.

If the new line is for the A32X instead of the A220, and given that the backlog is approaching parity, I still believe that they might make a line dedicated to the 321. It would still be modular, as are all the other lines, and able to produce 320s if required, but they obviously prefer to stick to one type per line if they can.

Anyhow. The $5 is still on the table.


Your statement stands? You write completely nonsense and you still state that your nonsense stands?

BFM is assembling A321 both ceo and neo. BFM has been assembling A321 right from the start. Not only since the tariffs were set. BFM has assembled more A321 than A320.

You can believe what you want about A320 family assembly lines, but that does not change facts. And stating nonsense does not become a fact because you say so.

The next point regarding Airbus would only produce A321 on one line, is again completely nonsense. Doing some small calculations would tell you that that can not stand.

One line has a 8 frames per month capacity. That are 96 frames a year. Airbus delivered more than 200 A321 last year. That would mean that 2 lines in XFW would have to be dedicated to A321. But the point is, that none of the lines in XFW are dedicated to one type of A320 family frame. The mix of types in the assembly line, depends only on the parts that are provide from the supply line.

If the supply line provides the parts XFW can assemble A321 only if needed. As there are about 50 % of the FAL capacity situated in XFW, that would bring A321 production up to and above 50%.

The next point you are forgetting is, that the bulk of the A320neo orders are older that the A321neo orders. So we will see for still quite a while more A320 assembled and delivered, than A321.
And overall the A320 backlog is bigger than the A321 backlog.

The problem is not assembly of A321, but the supply line. And that still includes engines. Only 60 A321 with LEAP engines have been delivered last year. When enough A321 parts come out of the supply line, the percentage of A321 in the assembly lines will increase.

Airbus has to ramp up A320 family production overall, because A320 customers have also to get their frames.

And again with all the problems, Airbus still has set a new record for narrow body deliveries last year.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:49 am

There were only 136 A321NEO delivered last year per Wikipedia.

60 LEAP A321
76 PW1100G A321

We know that cabin flex delayed production:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... story.html

It isn't just LEAP.
JetBlue expected 13 A321NEO, allocated 6 and still shorted one in 2020 (14 instead of 15).

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ery-delays

Indigo has a 3 to 6 month wait, blamed on Hamburg:
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 61186.html


Vendors aren't perfect, but it looks like Hamburg issues cost a number of A321 deliveries.

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sciing
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Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
There were only 136 A321NEO delivered last year per Wikipedia.

60 LEAP A321
76 PW1100G A321

This is without the 33 in December, 12 LEAP, 21 P&W.
There were 38 A321ceos delivered in 2019.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:53 am

lightsaber wrote:
There were only 136 A321NEO delivered last year per Wikipedia.

60 LEAP A321
76 PW1100G A321


here you have a list of all A321neo flown out in 2019
http://a380.boards.net/thread/2503/a321 ... t-1?page=1
there can be slight difference to Airbus numbers, as this list counts delivery flights and not deliveries, so you will find a few frames delivered in 2018 and flown out in 2019 and some frames delivered in 2019 and not flown out will be missing.

60 LEAP A321 against 103 GTF A321. While orders are about even.

lightsaber wrote:
We know that cabin flex delayed production:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... story.html

It isn't just LEAP.
JetBlue expected 13 A321NEO, allocated 6 and still shorted one in 2020 (14 instead of 15).

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ery-delays

Indigo has a 3 to 6 month wait, blamed on Hamburg:
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 61186.html


Vendors aren't perfect, but it looks like Hamburg issues cost a number of A321 deliveries.

Lightsaber


Yes we all know that Airbus has delivery problems with the A321neo, but my points are about where this problems are, and they are not in regard to FAL capacity or capabilities.

It is not only the high thrust LEAP that are missing, but there are also GTF engines still delayed and the rebuild of old GTF engines is not yet finished, while the numbers of new delivered GTF to Airbus is still tight. As you should well know. When we look at A321neo delays, not only ACF are delayed.

Yes there were a lot of problems with the ACF, but most of those problems are after the FAL in outfitting. There were more A321neo assembled than delivered in 2019 otherwise we would not see undelivered A321neo standing around in XFW. The problems with the ACF are the many versions on offer, compared to the old A321neo, and the many HOV, head of versions, the number of new versions to sometimes new customers. And again outfitting does also not get all the parts in a timely fashion.

So Airbus is last year short in deliveries compared to planing. We can assume Airbus wanted to deliver slightly less than 700 A320 family frames and have done 642 (still unofficial number and still a record number). Airbus is about 45 A321neo short and perhaps 15 others. Give and take some, as there seem also to be some A319ceo and A320ceo delayed. That would be Chinese customers taking their frames late (I think especially Chengdu and Tibet airlines) and it is sometimes difficult to follow those numbers.

I assume that if Airbus gets its supply line problems fixed, engines, other vendors and yes indoor problems in the pre Fal production especially at the aft fuselage production in XFW, I assume we will see near to 700 frames produced this year.
 
jghealey
Posts: 232
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 5:46 pm

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:07 am

stasisLAX wrote:
I seriously doubt that its going to be an A320/321 FAL. Given the high demand for the A220, its likely that another A220 FAL is coming online.

The A220 may be increasing in popularity but when you look at the A320 backlog the difference is absolutely huge. In the region of 6100 A320s on order compared to just 600 or so A220s. Plus the A220 FAL at BFM is already being built.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:38 am

I regards to Airbus delivery delays one has also to think a bit about CFM will produce more LEAP 1A engines. What could be the reason if there were no shortages now? It is sad to see P&W having blown their early advantage being the first to market and originally favoured engine, with the LEAP now the better selling engine on the A320neo family frames.

In regards to more FAL capacity, there is nothing urgent at Airbus, current capacity can be stretched easily to 63 and even 66 a month. A new FAL in TLS is seen in connection to the XLR. A second FAL in BFM could be a short term decision, if tariffs are kept up.
 
sciing
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2015 9:54 am

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 am

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... he-us.html
Rate for Mobile will be increased from 5 to 7 per month until 2021. With the 4 A220 per month Mobile will build more than 130 aircraft per year.
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8783
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:40 pm

Even though I’m an avgeek, these volumes really worry me. Where are we going to get the pilots, where are we going to get the fuel, and what about the emissions? I mean these things are basically flying swimming pools that have to be filled with jet fuel multiple times a day. When airlines you’ve never heard of are ordering 100 jets at a time, you have to wonder what the long term thinking is.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1706
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:45 pm

cedarjet wrote:
Even though I’m an avgeek, these volumes really worry me. Where are we going to get the pilots, where are we going to get the fuel, and what about the emissions? I mean these things are basically flying swimming pools that have to be filled with jet fuel multiple times a day. When airlines you’ve never heard of are ordering 100 jets at a time, you have to wonder what the long term thinking is.

A good portion of those orders (and deliveries) are to replace older and thirstier planes; and some of the rest of those planes are going to regions where the current mass transportation means are old polluting buses and/or cars.
Overall, the massive delivery of brand new, more fuel efficient planes will most likely decrease the global consumption of fuel and the emissions.
 
User avatar
PepeTheFrog
Posts: 380
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Possible 2nd A320 FAL in Mobile

Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:49 pm

stranger706 wrote:
Also goes on to talk about another A350 FAL and possible military FAL. I don't know some of it sounds kind of crazy. I could believe another A320 FAL but not sure about the others.


Airbus could set up a A350 plant in Mobile to avoid US tariffs.

But it's too soon to decide: if Trump doesn't get re-elected, perhaps the next Administration will restore balance with the EU and get rid of the tariffs. If that would happen, any A350 investments in Mobile would be a waste.
Good moaning!

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