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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:05 am

The A320neo family was launched on 1 December 2010. In the press release Airbus stated [b]"Airbus sees a market potential of 4,000 A320neo Family aircraft over the next 15 years."[/b] At that time roughly 4,500 A320 ceo family deliveries had been made.

Well Airbustook over 4,0000 orders for the neo before they delivered the first neo 5 years later.

“We do see a market for 4,000 to 5,000 airplanes [for the proposed NMA],” said Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg at an investor conference in February 2019. “It’s an airplane that’s 220 to 270 passengers, about 5,000 nautical mile airplane. That market can’t really be served efficiently by derivatives of current airplanes, ours or our competitors.”

Are market predictions of any value (other than toilet tissue)?
 
VV
Posts: 1856
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:41 am

What was the prediction for very large aircraft?
 
VV
Posts: 1856
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:21 am

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
What was the prediction for very large aircraft?


Do you still think the A320neo was launched prematurely and grounding the 737 MAX was emotional?


Yes.
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:00 am

VV wrote:
What was the prediction for very large aircraft?


Airbus' Global Market Forecast from the year 2000 predicted that 1,235 “very large aircraft” would be delivered to customers between 2000 and 2019. There were 319 deliveries of the B747 in addition to the 240 A380 deliveries (not counting December 2019). So they missed that one by more than 50%.

The jets with the most seats currently in the US airlines
364 United Airlines (high density domestic flights B777-200- 19 jets)
350 United Airlines (B777-300ER - 20 jets)
318 United Airlines (B787-1000- 11 jets w/ 3 on order)
306 Delta Airlines (A350-900 - 13 jets w/ 16 on order)
304 American Airlines (Boeing 777-300ER - 20 jets)
278 Hawaiian Airlines (Airbus A330-200 - 24 jets)

747-400
2000 9
2001 19
2002 5
2003 6
2004 3
2005 2

747-400ER
2002 3
2003 3

747-400ERF
2002 3
2003 4
2004 5
2005 2
2006 6
2007 8
2008 6
2009 6

747-400F
2000 15
2001 12
2002 15
2003 6
2004 7
2005 9
2006 8
2007 8
2008 8
2009 2

747-400M
2000 1
2002 1

747-8
2012 12
2013 5
2014 10
2015 11
2016 3
2017 6

747-8F
2011 9
2012 19
2013 19
2014 9
2015 7
2016 6
2017 8
2018 6
2019 7
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19169
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:18 am

VV wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
What was the prediction for very large aircraft?


Do you still think the A320neo was launched prematurely and grounding the 737 MAX was emotional?


Yes.


Obstinacy in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. :rotfl:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
oschkosch
Posts: 596
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:58 am

crystal balls are difficult to read :D

Image

Image
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9390
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:41 am

The Airbus definition for VLA were frames for over 400 passengers, that would include the 777-300 or now the 777-9.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:00 pm

There's some great revisionist history out there.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/06/21/boein ... duct-head/

Google '2014 Airbus global market forecast'
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:16 pm

oschkosch wrote:
crystal balls are difficult to read :D

Image

Image


It's easier when you have the best economy in history...
 
VV
Posts: 1856
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Market predictions

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:23 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
...
Google '2014 Airbus global market forecast'


According to that 2014 GMF VLA is something bigger than "twin aisle".

So basically it would be an aircraft with more than one deck. 1.5 or 2 decks.

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