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abrown532
Topic Author
Posts: 166
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2008 5:17 pm

Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:25 pm

What with the latest escalation in the region of Iraq/Iran will it get to a point where airlines such as Qatar/Emirates/Etihad flying to/from Europe will have to transit completely away from these areas for safety reasons?
 
x1234
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:28 pm

If things get real bad they may have to route the flights over Saudi Arabia/Egyptian airspace.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1770
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:31 pm

I was thinking about this myself, given that I have a flight back from Asia going through Abu Dhabi next week. I guess we'll have to wait and see how Iran responds. If there is a conflict in the region I think it would be centered around the Gulf, which would be bad news for Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar. Plus I suppose Iran's airspace could be closed. Really any kind of conflict in that region is going to have a huge impact on aviation.
 
abrown532
Topic Author
Posts: 166
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:38 pm

Yeah, it's mainly in my thoughts as I am flying to Dubai next month and Doha in May. If things to escalate I would rather hope my flight be re-routed away from any conflict.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:32 pm

I recall flying to Dubai back in 2009 a time when Iraq was a little dodgy still. EK few directly over Iraq and Baghdad. Flights tend to be fine.Just don't fly over the area in an American airline because really you never do know.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:44 pm

I'll avoid for a while. I'm thinking the next time I go downunder I'll go the wrong way and switch stateside. Less chance of anyone blowing you out of the sky, if a bit longer and pricier. I don't trust Russia either.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:45 pm

As long as you aren't flying near a Russian SAM or USN ship you should be ok.

On a more serious note it'll entirely up to the airlines and their insurers to decide what to do. Some insurers will likely demand diversions to avoid certain areas.
 
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andrefranca
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:56 pm

Brazilian gov is removing the non essential staff from embassies in the region... I suppose as long as people there avoid places seen as "american friendly" or "american frequented" they should be fine.
 
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777222LR
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:00 pm

With the blockade against Qatar, I'm wondering how Qatar Airways would handle this situation.
 
Malayil
Posts: 154
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:01 pm

Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:43 pm

Insurance companies will rule who can fly where and when and what is a safe risk for them and the airline will follow suit or lose cover. That's business.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
arfbool
Posts: 97
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:49 pm

Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


That’s not even close to true.

EK 216 (LAX-DXB) has detoured around Iran each of the last 2 days.
 
bradyj23
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 9:24 am

Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:27 pm

arfbool wrote:
Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


That’s not even close to true.

EK 216 (LAX-DXB) has detoured around Iran each of the last 2 days.


What are you getting at? He said shot down. Who else has? Seems pretty accurate to me.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:37 pm

So it is best not to book EK and QR for the foreseeable future?
 
EK216
Posts: 17
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:45 pm

arfbool wrote:
Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


That’s not even close to true.

EK 216 (LAX-DXB) has detoured around Iran each of the last 2 days.


Not sure if they purposely detour it though. Every time I've done EK216, we've never gone over Iran. And with the inbound EK215, 9.5 times out of 10 always flies directly through Iran (even in the last couple days). But it could change because it has in the past. Developments as of late include rockets that have been fired through the night in Baghdad and surrounding areas, which are near the flight paths of many Euro and Asian Airlines but mainly TK, EK, QR, EY and GF (GF has since suspended their flights to Baghdad and Najaf).

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/rockets-target-baghdad-green-zone-successive-night-200105205154964.html

Also yes, the US has shot down civilian airliners/aircraft before - the common example being Iran Air Flight 655.

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/07/17/332318322/a-brief-history-of-civilian-planes-that-have-been-shot-down?t=1578267775970
 
arfbool
Posts: 97
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:58 pm

EK216 wrote:
arfbool wrote:
Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


That’s not even close to true.

EK 216 (LAX-DXB) has detoured around Iran each of the last 2 days.


Not sure if they purposely detour it though. Every time I've done EK216, we've never gone over Iran. And with the inbound EK215, 9.5 times out of 10 always flies directly through Iran (even in the last couple days). But it could change because it has in the past. Developments as of late include rockets that have been fired through the night in Baghdad and surrounding areas, which are near the flight paths of many Euro and Asian Airlines but mainly TK, EK, QR, EY and GF (GF has since suspended their flights to Baghdad and Najaf).

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/rockets-target-baghdad-green-zone-successive-night-200105205154964.html

Also yes, the US has shot down civilian airliners/aircraft before - the common example being Iran Air Flight 655.

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/07/17/332318322/a-brief-history-of-civilian-planes-that-have-been-shot-down?t=1578267775970


I looked the last few and it's a small deviation but it's clear they take a detour to avoid Iran. Go back farther and you see flights over Iran. You can see this with EK 226 as well (SFO-DXB). You don't see the deviation with flights leaving Dubai. Perhaps there is greater concern with being misidentified when approaching Iran from another continent than from Dubai.

Addressing an earlier post, this is an easy-to-find list of commercial airliner shootdown incidents. Many countries have been known to shoot down airliners. Plus there is always a first time. Because something has never happened in no way proves it will not happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... _incidents
 
CairnterriAIR
Posts: 687
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:49 am

Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


*Bulgaria shot down an EL AL flight
*China shot down a Cathay Pacific Hong Kong flight
*Isreal shot down a Libyan flight
*Ukraine shot down a Russian Siberian flight
*Italy may have shot down one of their own civilian aircraft (debated)
 
YIMBY
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:32 am

Most likely all the respectable governments will do their best to avoid shooting down civilian airplanes. Most downed civil airplanes have been shot down by error or rogue forces, though, and the probability for this has increased significantly.

Note particularly that many local pseudomilitary groups considered as pro-Iranian by the US are quite independent and do not obey the commands of the government or military command of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Anyone may conclude whatever, but I will keep avoiding flying over ME, even more those landing there, not only for fear of being shot but also the increased probability of being stuck in an inconvenient place.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:05 am

Does any us carrier fly to dubai
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15101
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:49 am

I would assume that diverting in a mechanical/electrical/smoke condition or health emergency to airports in Iran or Iraq is to be avoided at all costs, especially if any American nationals aboard. Overflights could be at risk for mis-indentification and shot down by the military of several countries involved in the region.
 
andrej
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Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 8:31 am

Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:13 am

Thunderbolt500 wrote:
Does any us carrier fly to dubai

As far as I am aware, only UPS and FedEx are scheduled US flagged carriers. There are no US scheduled passenger carriers in DXB, but at least one (Delta) used to fly there.
 
maxkd
Posts: 12
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:10 am

andrej wrote:
Thunderbolt500 wrote:
Does any us carrier fly to dubai

As far as I am aware, only UPS and FedEx are scheduled US flagged carriers. There are no US scheduled passenger carriers in DXB, but at least one (Delta) used to fly there.


United also used to fly IAD-DXB
 
ExpatVet
Posts: 145
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:35 am

Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:21 am

goosebayguy wrote:
I recall flying to Dubai back in 2009 a time when Iraq was a little dodgy still. EK few directly over Iraq and Baghdad. Flights tend to be fine.Just don't fly over the area in an American airline because really you never do know.


Iirc, Korean, Iranian, and Malaysian airliners have been shot down, but never USA carriers.
L101, 733/4/5/8/9, 741/2/3 (never managed 744!), MD 80/2/3/8/90, MD11, DHC8/3/Q4, E170, E195, 757, 77W, 763/4, Travel Air 2000. A300/310, A319/320/321, A333, ATR-72, probably a few others I forget. Passenger, not pilot, alas! BUD based.
 
DY789
Posts: 72
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:47 am

777222LR wrote:
With the blockade against Qatar, I'm wondering how Qatar Airways would handle this situation.


I'm wondering this also. Other airlines in the region have the luxury of routing anywhere they wish. Qatar not being bale to fly over Saudi causes problems to say the least!
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:57 pm

ExpatVet wrote:
goosebayguy wrote:
I recall flying to Dubai back in 2009 a time when Iraq was a little dodgy still. EK few directly over Iraq and Baghdad. Flights tend to be fine.Just don't fly over the area in an American airline because really you never do know.


Iirc, Korean, Iranian, and Malaysian airliners have been shot down, but never USA carriers.


Not shot down, but PA103 was bombed by a Libyan (my technically the middle East I know but it is regarded as a revenge attack for IranAir855).

I believe a TU154 was shot down over the Black sea after being shot down by the Ukrainian air force.
 
Arion640
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:23 pm

sevenair wrote:
I'll avoid for a while. I'm thinking the next time I go downunder I'll go the wrong way and switch stateside. Less chance of anyone blowing you out of the sky, if a bit longer and pricier. I don't trust Russia either.


Fly Qatar. Friendly with both the west and Iran. Unlikely to see anything happen to them in my opinion
 
arfbool
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:45 pm

I have to correct myself. I looked at a bunch of other EK flights from North America including up to a month before the assassination, and while they do tend to fly over Iran mostly, occasionally they choose a route that avoids Iran by flying just outside the border. This must be due to some technical reason other than air safety.
 
n729pa
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:25 pm

CairnterriAIR wrote:
Malayil wrote:
Considering only the Russians and Americans have shot down civilian airliners, I think you’ll be alright.


*Bulgaria shot down an EL AL flight
*China shot down a Cathay Pacific Hong Kong flight
*Isreal shot down a Libyan flight
*Ukraine shot down a Russian Siberian flight
*Italy may have shot down one of their own civilian aircraft (debated)


1943 KLM /BOAC Flight 777 DC3 Lisbon to Bristol shot down over Bay of Biscay by the Luftwaffe.
Jan and Feb 1942 two Qantas Empire Flying boats were shot down by the Japanese, one off West Timor. The other between Dutch East Indies and Broome.

Plenty of planes shot down in Afghanistan in the 80s/90so by one faction or another.

Bit more up to date....and immediately relevant...

DHL A300 was shot at and hit by a shoulder launched missle, having just taken off from Baghdad.

This kind of operation could be of greater concern.
 
airbazar
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
I'll avoid for a while. I'm thinking the next time I go downunder I'll go the wrong way and switch stateside. Less chance of anyone blowing you out of the sky, if a bit longer and pricier. I don't trust Russia either.


Fly Qatar. Friendly with both the west and Iran. Unlikely to see anything happen to them in my opinion


Yup. Qatar has good relations with Iran so they're safe.
 
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Terrier79
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Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:35 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Fly Qatar. Friendly with both the west and Iran. Unlikely to see anything happen to them in my opinion

Malaysia was not unfriendly with anyone, and still MH17 was shot down.
Airspace is generally not a safe place where missiles fly, no matter whether you are friend or not with the parties involved. Unlikely that any airliner gets targeted intentionally, but accidents may happen.
 
Clackers
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:37 pm

How would rebels have the technology to know what plane they are shooting down?

The Russians shot down MH17 but they didn't pre-plan it? In fact IIRC, wasn't there a SIA flight just behind it (about 10 mins?) on the same route? I think SQ335 from CDG.

Not all rebels in the outback have computer science degrees and radars.
 
debonair
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Re: Safety of Flying over The Middle East

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:46 pm

x1234 wrote:
If things get real bad they may have to route the flights over Saudi Arabia/Egyptian airspace.

Sinai airspace is also regarded as high risk :alert: area... :airplane:
 
edealinfo
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Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:23 am

Al Jazeera live news (available for free on the internet) is reporting that Trump suspended US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region. So, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Gulf of Oman, etc., are now off limits to US carriers.

Among other things, this means that United and Delta's direct non-stop flights to India, which overfly the region, will have to be r-routed or now involve a one-stop since the aircraft may not have fuel to go direct to India by overflying the region. Which other US flights overfly the region?
Last edited by SQ22 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
dcaproducer
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:41 am

WaPost report: move was to prevent misidentification. Developing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:42 am

edealinfo wrote:
Among other things, this means that United and Delta's direct non-stop flights to India, which overfly the region, will have to be r-routed or now involve a one-stop since the aircraft may not have fuel to go direct to India by overflying the region. Which other US flights overfly the region?


Fortunately, UA doesn't overfly the region at this time of year because of winds. They fly a polar route that avoids the affected area. I can't speak for other airlines, but I would expect the same. Virtually zero impact on current passenger ops, although cargo ops are an entirely different story.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:49 am

dcaproducer wrote:
WaPost report: move was to prevent misidentification. Developing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html


The first step in winning a war is air superiority......can’t have that unless you can identify your targets.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:53 am

edealinfo wrote:
Al Jazeera live news (available for free on the internet) is reporting that Trump suspended US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region. So, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Gulf of Oman, etc., are now off limits to US carriers.

Among other things, this means that United and Delta's direct non-stop flights to India, which overfly the region, will have to be r-routed or now involve a one-stop since the aircraft may not have fuel to go direct to India by overflying the region. Which other US flights overfly the region?


United and Delta are instead traversing the CIS and flying close to a polar route. UA uses a B77E (pmCO) to and from DEL and a B77W to and from BOM (both to EWR) and DL uses a B77L to and from BOM.

The real impact would be on FedEx and UPS, whose Dubai operations are severely hampered.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:54 am

Looks like Russia and other Central Asian countries are going to make a boat load of money in airnav fees. I think this will impact US cargo operators more than DL and UA.
All posts are just opinions.
 
incitatus
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:56 am

What happens to Qatar Airways if the Iranian airspace becomes unsafe? It appears that would make their European network impossible to serve.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
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LAXdenizen
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:25 am

Flightaware shows EK215 about to depart DXB-LAX with it's typical route traversing Iran. Will be watching to see if there's any deviation.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE ... /OMDB/KLAX
 
KLSMB
Posts: 82
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 5:34 am

Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:13 am

Flightradar is showing AC56 YYZ-DXB flying quite far south of it's typical route tonight, approaching DXB from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ACA ... /CYYZ/OMDB
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:27 am

incitatus wrote:
What happens to Qatar Airways if the Iranian airspace becomes unsafe? It appears that would make their European network impossible to serve.

Might have to make a fuel stop in Amman, Jordan.
 
vahancrazy
Posts: 187
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:41 am

Sad story and a bit sad it is in civil aviation forum; no comments about politics.

As long as it is FAA only, ME3 carriers do not care and can overfly the area unless mil/jet take off, no?
 
kevertje
Posts: 32
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KLM routes over dangerous areas

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:31 am

https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6022382/kl ... redirect=1

KLM immediately stops flying over dangerous parts in Iran.

When MH16 happened KLM did fly over Ukraine but AirFrance didn't.
Interesting to see the different decisions in skyteam.
 
artflyer
Posts: 141
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Re: KLM routes over dangerous areas

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:34 am

A bit late isn't it? And what does it mean "over dangerous parts" in Iran ie they still overfly Iran?
 
CURQ400
Posts: 35
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Re: KLM routes over dangerous areas

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:11 am

artflyer wrote:
A bit late isn't it? And what does it mean "over dangerous parts" in Iran ie they still overfly Iran?


Those are the OP’s words. The article simply states that they’ve stopped overflying Iran and Iraq.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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Re: KLM routes over dangerous areas

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:29 am

Just happened to look at FR24 for LH's FRA-SIN route, clearly flies just north of the Iran/Turkmenistan border. Although SIN-FRA flies via China half of the time, it seems.

KL AMS-SIN still flew over Iran Dec 31, Jan 1 no more (also Turkmenistan). Westbound SIN-AMS it didn't overfly Iran in any case, not recently, always over Turkmenistan or further north. Of course KL has plenty more flights to SE Asia, but I took SIN as it is the longest and therefore the least flexible in terms of flight planning.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
SQ317
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:06 am

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... aign=share

QF9 badly affected - blocking 90 seats on PER-LHR to allow for a ~50 minute diversion across Afghanistan, may tech stop in SIN or HKG if the situation continues. Presumably they'll reroute non-PER pax onto SIN services as they have to stop anyway, but are there 90 free seats on QF1 SIN-LHR?
 
panamair
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:30 am

Looks like today's DL025 BOM-JFK flew over Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and then the Polar route through Greenland. Don't know if they had to weight restrict or not as it was booked full but left with about two dozen empty seats.
 
787SIN
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:38 am

Some British Airways flights earlier from Southern India were tracking over Oman then Saudi and then north from the west coast of Saudi.

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