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B777LRF
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:07 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Can anyone provide a snippet of reassurance about my upcoming EK8 flight from LHR to DXB in 10 days? In light of the fact Iran seems to be (accidentally or otherwise) shooting down civilian aircraft and also the fact that Emirates continues to fly over Iraqi/Iranian airspace, am I overreacting by worrying about this flight much more than I normally would? The prospect of having to be on an airplane worrying about getting blown out of the sky for ~2.5 hours of my flight, or however long it takes to get from northern Iraq through the Persian Gulf to land in DXB, doesn't sound enticing.


1. If, and currently it's all a big IF, the Iranians shot the aircraft down, they did so as it flew over a SAM site at around 5.000 ft. You'll be crossing Iran at more than 30.000
2. You may safely rest assured that the likes of EK, QR and ET have a much, much better idea of what's going on in the region than any other airline
3. Don't go by what the FAA says; they're a political organisation who'll happily do their part to deprive the Iranian government of an income source
4. Yes, you're overreacting. Hundreds, if not thousands, of flights cross Iranian airspace every day. Yet not a single one has ever, as in never, been shot down whilst at cruise altitude. And, at this point in time it's still not certain they shot down the PS flight
5. LH and OS have reinstated their flights to IKA
6. At this exact moment in time, the following airlines have flights in Iranian airspace: Emirates, Qatar, Etihad, Fly Dubai, Turkish, Iraqi Airways, Jordan Aviation, Pakistan, Ural Airlines, as well as, of course, all the usual Iranian carriers. None of them have been shot down.

Enjoy the cabin service onboard EK, sit back, relax, watch a movie and have a beer. The biggest risk of your journey is still the transport to/from the airport.
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johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:23 pm

B777LRF wrote:

1. If, and currently it's all a big IF, the Iranians shot the aircraft down, they did so as it flew over a SAM site at around 5.000 ft. You'll be crossing Iran at more than 30.000
2. You may safely rest assured that the likes of EK, QR and ET have a much, much better idea of what's going on in the region than any other airline
3. Don't go by what the FAA says; they're a political organisation who'll happily do their part to deprive the Iranian government of an income source
4. Yes, you're overreacting. Hundreds, if not thousands, of flights cross Iranian airspace every day. Yet not a single one has ever, as in never, been shot down whilst at cruise altitude. And, at this point in time it's still not certain they shot down the PS flight
5. LH and OS have reinstated their flights to IKA
6. At this exact moment in time, the following airlines have flights in Iranian airspace: Emirates, Qatar, Etihad, Fly Dubai, Turkish, Iraqi Airways, Jordan Aviation, Pakistan, Ural Airlines, as well as, of course, all the usual Iranian carriers. None of them have been shot down.

Enjoy the cabin service onboard EK, sit back, relax, watch a movie and have a beer. The biggest risk of your journey is still the transport to/from the airport.


Thanks for your reply, it was quite helpful. However, I understand the Iranians have Raad surface-to-air missiles, similar to Russian BUK ones, that would easily hit an airliner at cruising altitude. These missiles can hit targets at up to 80,000 feet and they blasted a US drone from the sky less than a year ago. With the possibility of trigger happy people making mistakes, it is not comforting to know the Iranians have such missiles in their armory.

With regards to the risk assessments conducted by the likes of EK, QR, and ET based on their regional knowledge, it's a tough one. The cost of taking alternative routes would be extremely high and in a high-pressure competitive world where profit seemingly trumps everything, sometimes including passenger safety, it is difficult not to be skeptical of how much thought they are actively putting into the routes they take.

The risk is evidently small as you allude to by citing all the air traffic over Iran/Iraq currently, but that risk still seems a few orders of magnitude higher right now than it would normally be. I will probably end up taking a sedative to calm my thoughts during that particular portion of the flight.
 
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:44 pm

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH ... /EDDF/OIIE

Looks like LH600 FRA-IKA is turning around.
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Western727
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:27 pm

hoons90 wrote:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH600/history/20200109/1240Z/EDDF/OIIE

Looks like LH600 FRA-IKA is turning around.


Intriguing. As of this writing it's roughly 80 km SW of BUD after turning around shortly before the halfway point, and it appears to still be headed to FRA. Coincidence? Anyone know anything?
Jack @ AUS
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:33 pm

Maybe faa is trying to scare the people with it be shot by iran
 
afgeneral
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:36 pm

LH600 looks to have made a common sense decision based on information available.

What is actually intriguing is all the Qatar and Emirates planes flying all over Iranian air space. Why would they risk it?
 
Varsity1
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:43 pm

Lufthansa has canceled IKA service.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
Varsity1
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:45 pm

afgeneral wrote:
LH600 looks to have made a common sense decision based on information available.

What is actually intriguing is all the Qatar and Emirates planes flying all over Iranian air space. Why would they risk it?


Because they have no idea.

Gathering the type of intelligence the USA has requires a very large space program. Neither Qatar or the UAE have one, they must rely on information passed to them from larger countries that capture it first hand.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:47 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Lufthansa has canceled IKA service.

Do you have a source? What I found was LH was flying.

Lightsaber
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juliuswong
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:35 am

lightsaber wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Lufthansa has canceled IKA service.

Do you have a source? What I found was LH was flying.

Lightsaber

Seems like today's 9th Feb 2020 LH600 has returned to FRA after they heard PS752 was potentially shotdown. Today's flight 10th Feb 2020 is also cancelled.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lh600

http://news.trust.org//item/20200108084251-x1w71/
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juliuswong
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:38 am

lightsaber wrote:
readytotaxi wrote:
Imagine airline insurers are going to have a big say in where they fly and at what cost.

This was my first thought. Airlines can fly, insurers can refuse to cover without a rider. This impacts all airlines.

Lightsaber

Big money for insurers and oil companies now. Hopefully cool minds prevail soon. The world cannot afford a war now.
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speedbird52
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:39 am

Varsity1 wrote:
Lufthansa has canceled IKA service.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq ... SKBN1Z71TY
Nope
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:21 am

Did I miss something or do FAA NOTAM's not affect airlines flying to the US?

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P1aneMad
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:35 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Did I miss something or do FAA NOTAM's not affect airlines flying to the US?


No it does not.
It only applies to US registered airlines. Essentially DL, UA and AA.
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:28 am

https://safeairspace.net/

New NOTAMs out today and that website is listing Iran and Iraq as „No Fly“ areas now in their map...

I really hope that all other carriers who as of now are still overflying Iran and Iraq will stop doing so shortly.

I for myself wont take the risk booking on any of those carriers anymore that are flying in that area.

Better to choose the northerly routes to Asia now... e.g. via HKG, ICN, NRT, HND, TPE etc.

Best regards and safe flights everyone
Alex
Last edited by AlexA340B777 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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a320fan
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:29 am

P1aneMad wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Did I miss something or do FAA NOTAM's not affect airlines flying to the US?


No it does not.
It only applies to US registered airlines. Essentially DL, UA and AA.

Plus the US registered Cargo operators, who are seeing the biggest impact of the notam. Especially FedEX and UPS with their significant DXB network.
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:55 pm

AlexA340B777 wrote:
https://safeairspace.net/

I really hope that all other carriers who as of now are still overflying Iran and Iraq will stop doing so shortly.

I for myself wont take the risk booking on any of those carriers anymore that are flying in that area.



QR or EK won't stop overflying these countries. For those of us with flights to the area already booked, this presents a bit of a dilemma. I have an upcoming EK flight to BKK via DXB and I don't like the idea of spending ~2.5 hours of the flight worrying about a missile blasting me out of the sky.
 
Western727
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:17 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
https://safeairspace.net/

I really hope that all other carriers who as of now are still overflying Iran and Iraq will stop doing so shortly.

I for myself wont take the risk booking on any of those carriers anymore that are flying in that area.



QR or EK won't stop overflying these countries. For those of us with flights to the area already booked, this presents a bit of a dilemma. I have an upcoming EK flight to BKK via DXB and I don't like the idea of spending ~2.5 hours of the flight worrying about a missile blasting me out of the sky.


With you on that. Got an upcoming trip directly to DXB (EK 212/211, from/to IAH) to visit my expat sister and her family who live outside of Dubai. 212 to DXB has consistently overflown Iraq with no noticeable change through today; ditto with 211 out of DXB which has consistently overflown Iran. It's not going to be a fun 2.5 hours in either direction.
Jack @ AUS
 
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longhauler
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:34 pm

johhnieonion wrote:

Western727 wrote:


Do you honestly think Emirates would be flying through this airspace if they thought there was any risk involved? The loss of a flight during what could be considered a risky time, would be a nightmare for any carrier.

To me, this looks like they have made (ahem) arrangements with the countries involved.

Personally, I would be comfortable flying Emirates through Iraqi or Iran airspace .... other airlines, not so much. All airlines do risk assessments with regard to operations like this, EK and LH included. It is very involved using levels of government as well as corporate security teams.

My first question upon seeing EK’s continued operations through this “risky” airspace, would not be Why? ... but How? Because trust me, if there was any risk involved, they wouldn’t be doing it.

Enjoy your flight.
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johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:37 pm

Western727 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
https://safeairspace.net/

I really hope that all other carriers who as of now are still overflying Iran and Iraq will stop doing so shortly.

I for myself wont take the risk booking on any of those carriers anymore that are flying in that area.



QR or EK won't stop overflying these countries. For those of us with flights to the area already booked, this presents a bit of a dilemma. I have an upcoming EK flight to BKK via DXB and I don't like the idea of spending ~2.5 hours of the flight worrying about a missile blasting me out of the sky.


With you on that. Got an upcoming trip directly to DXB (EK 212/211, from/to IAH) to visit my expat sister and her family who live outside of Dubai. 212 to DXB has consistently overflown Iraq with no noticeable change through today; ditto with 211 out of DXB which has consistently overflown Iran. It's not going to be a fun 2.5 hours in either direction.


Yeah, I'm not looking forward to it in the slightest and flying is something I usually quite enjoy, particularly with EK. I definitely won't be able to relax on the flight. My flight to DXB is the same; consistently overflying Iraq in both directions according to the latest data; actually it went over Iran last night, which is worse. I'm not sure how risky Iraq's airspace actually is in the current circumstances, to be honest.
 
johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:47 pm

longhauler wrote:

Do you honestly think Emirates would be flying through this airspace if they thought there was any risk involved? The loss of a flight during what could be considered a risky time, would be a nightmare for any carrier.

To me, this looks like they have made (ahem) arrangements with the countries involved.


Even if they have made such arrangements with Emirates, it is difficult as a passenger not to fall into the psychological trap of worrying about trigger-happy militia on the ground locking on to the wrong aircraft if a circumstance arises in which they are reacting to an imminent airstrike.

longhauler wrote:

Personally, I would be comfortable flying Emirates through Iraqi or Iran airspace .... other airlines, not so much. All airlines do risk assessments with regard to operations like this, EK and LH included. It is very involved using levels of government as well as corporate security teams.

My first question upon seeing EK’s continued operations through this “risky” airspace, would not be Why? ... but How? Because trust me, if there was any risk involved, they wouldn’t be doing it.


That is somewhat reassuring. However, it is hard not to be skeptical sometimes about these risk assessments. When weighing up the potential risks, I am assuming the costs of rerouting play a very prominent role. In a world where profit seems to trump everything for many companies, maybe some carriers are more comfortable taking on the extra risk.
 
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longhauler
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:01 pm

I understand your concern, but if there were risks involved, any airline, Emirates included, would be avoiding that airspace.

Look at it from the opposite perspective..... imagine one of their aircraft was shot down. During a known threat, when the rest of the world is pointing saying “I told you so”.

Emirates, being a somewhat “new” airline, thrives on its reputation. Alter or ruin that reputation, and they may as well shut down. No one would risk flying them at any price ... or how good the meals or IFE were. The cost of avoiding the airspace is nothing compared to the loss of that reputation!

But also remember, this risk assessment is very dynamic, changing by the minute. That is why a Lufthansa flight can take off safely, then turn around enroute. Risk changes that quickly. I am certain Emirates is watching this very closely, and ..... if their routing changes, then so must the risk have changed.
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COEWR787
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Re: FAA suspends US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:31 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Al Jazeera live news (available for free on the internet) is reporting that Trump suspended US carrier overflights over entire Gulf Region. So, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Gulf of Oman, etc., are now off limits to US carriers.

Among other things, this means that United and Delta's direct non-stop flights to India, which overfly the region, will have to be r-routed or now involve a one-stop since the aircraft may not have fuel to go direct to India by overflying the region. Which other US flights overfly the region?


United and Delta are instead traversing the CIS and flying close to a polar route. UA uses a B77E (pmCO) to and from DEL and a B77W to and from BOM (both to EWR) and DL uses a B77L to and from BOM.

That is the normal route flown by United and Delta. No changes due to events in the Gulf.
Last edited by COEWR787 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:31 pm

longhauler wrote:
I understand your concern, but if there were risks involved, any airline, Emirates included, would be avoiding that airspace.

Look at it from the opposite perspective..... imagine one of their aircraft was shot down. During a known threat, when the rest of the world is pointing saying “I told you so”.

Emirates, being a somewhat “new” airline, thrives on its reputation. Alter or ruin that reputation, and they may as well shut down. No one would risk flying them at any price ... or how good the meals or IFE were. The cost of avoiding the airspace is nothing compared to the loss of that reputation!

But also remember, this risk assessment is very dynamic, changing by the minute. That is why a Lufthansa flight can take off safely, then turn around enroute. Risk changes that quickly. I am certain Emirates is watching this very closely, and ..... if their routing changes, then so must the risk have changed.


Some helpful points made there, thank you for your reassurance. On a related note, if I conclude that I'm personally not comfortable with EK continuing to fly over Iraq/Iran, are there likely to be any grounds for a refund given the multiple warnings currently in place about the dangers of this airspace?
 
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longhauler
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:36 pm

It is certainly worth a try.
These are such unusual circumstances, it’s hard to say how they may respond.
Let us know!
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redcap1962
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:14 pm

Starting January 8 QF avoids Iranian and Iraqi airspace with QF9/10.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf9
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf10
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Western727
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:31 pm

longhauler wrote:
I understand your concern, but if there were risks involved, any airline, Emirates included, would be avoiding that airspace.

Look at it from the opposite perspective..... imagine one of their aircraft was shot down. During a known threat, when the rest of the world is pointing saying “I told you so”.

Emirates, being a somewhat “new” airline, thrives on its reputation. Alter or ruin that reputation, and they may as well shut down. No one would risk flying them at any price ... or how good the meals or IFE were. The cost of avoiding the airspace is nothing compared to the loss of that reputation!

But also remember, this risk assessment is very dynamic, changing by the minute. That is why a Lufthansa flight can take off safely, then turn around enroute. Risk changes that quickly. I am certain Emirates is watching this very closely, and ..... if their routing changes, then so must the risk have changed.


I've followed you for some time, and your word is gold in my book and thus very reassuring. Thanks, longhauler, for taking the time to share your two cents. From "just" a private pilot, I say this to you: happy flying, sir.
Jack @ AUS
 
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:51 am

Snapshot of air traffic Jan 11, 12:50AM UTC

Image

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chicawgo
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:05 am

longhauler wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:

Western727 wrote:


Do you honestly think Emirates would be flying through this airspace if they thought there was any risk involved? The loss of a flight during what could be considered a risky time, would be a nightmare for any carrier.

To me, this looks like they have made (ahem) arrangements with the countries involved.

Personally, I would be comfortable flying Emirates through Iraqi or Iran airspace .... other airlines, not so much. All airlines do risk assessments with regard to operations like this, EK and LH included. It is very involved using levels of government as well as corporate security teams.

My first question upon seeing EK’s continued operations through this “risky” airspace, would not be Why? ... but How? Because trust me, if there was any risk involved, they wouldn’t be doing it.

Enjoy your flight.


You mean kind of like how Ukraine Airlines had “arrangements” for commercial service out of Tehran?
 
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:54 am

chicawgo wrote:

You mean kind of like how Ukraine Airlines had “arrangements” for commercial service out of Tehran?

Apparently not.

(I’m not going to take the troll bait).
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:54 am

Watching FR24 today, it looks like EK is avoiding Iranian airspace as well, all routed around.

Still overflying Iraq though.
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airhansa
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:07 am

The problem with an accidental missile fire is that not even allies of Iran can be assured that their planes wouldn't get hit - any airline based in Qatar would have a hard time flying out due to the geopolitical situation of the country.
 
xwb777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:39 am

Emirates will be reducing its flights to Tehran. EK977/978 will be dropped.
 
johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:40 pm

AlexA340B777 wrote:
Still overflying Iraq though.


As someone flying to DXB soon with EK, I am trying to figure out whether the fact they are still overflying Iraq should concern me. Longhauler has provided some helpful reassurance in this thread but as a natural worrier, well, I am doing what comes naturally to me and worrying excessively.

The aircraft will remain at cruise altitude for the duration of the time that it passes over Iraq's airspace, however, if Iraqi defense forces or militia possess air defense systems similar to Buks, cruise altitude isn't going to save any aircraft that happens to be targeted accidentally. Only 3 days ago an article appeared online about Russians willing to sell S-400 air defence missile systems to Iraq (https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russ ... s-400-iraq).
 
chicawgo
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:37 pm

longhauler wrote:
chicawgo wrote:

You mean kind of like how Ukraine Airlines had “arrangements” for commercial service out of Tehran?

Apparently not.

(I’m not going to take the troll bait).


Not meant as troll bait at all. You know exactly what my point is just as others have mentioned. That was a regularly scheduled flight and Iran shot it down! Assuming it was accidental, all bets are off! You can have any “agreement” you want. Someone or a group of people made a mistake. I don’t get how you can’t understand how that makes it significantly more dangerous overflying that area. Regardless of what airline you are.
 
chicawgo
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:38 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
AlexA340B777 wrote:
Still overflying Iraq though.


As someone flying to DXB soon with EK, I am trying to figure out whether the fact they are still overflying Iraq should concern me. Longhauler has provided some helpful reassurance in this thread but as a natural worrier, well, I am doing what comes naturally to me and worrying excessively.

The aircraft will remain at cruise altitude for the duration of the time that it passes over Iraq's airspace, however, if Iraqi defense forces or militia possess air defense systems similar to Buks, cruise altitude isn't going to save any aircraft that happens to be targeted accidentally. Only 3 days ago an article appeared online about Russians willing to sell S-400 air defence missile systems to Iraq (https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russ ... s-400-iraq).


What helpful reassurance has Longhauler provided? His/her logic is completely flawed.
 
airhansa
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:40 pm

FR says that 9:00 PM IR712 Stockholm (ARN) Iran Air 330 Canceled. It would be strange of Iran Air to cancel their own flights.
 
xwb777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:09 pm

Not a single Emirates flight is passing thru the Iranian airspace.
 
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longhauler
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Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:55 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Not a single Emirates flight is passing thru the Iranian airspace.

Exactly.

It’s all about managing risk. As that risk changes, and it does by the minute, then so does the game plan.

Now that the 737 shot down on departure from Tehran has been admitted as a “mistake” then the risk changes dramatically. The investigation will continue, as well it should. Questions still need to be answered, and don’t be surprised that as those questions are answered, risk and thus operations will change.

In other words, the risk assessment the day before the 737 was lost was very different than the day after and is still very different three days later! It’s all very dynamic.
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chicawgo
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:39 pm

longhauler wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
Not a single Emirates flight is passing thru the Iranian airspace.

Exactly.

It’s all about managing risk. As that risk changes, and it does by the minute, then so does the game plan.

Now that the 737 shot down on departure from Tehran has been admitted as a “mistake” then the risk changes dramatically. The investigation will continue, as well it should. Questions still need to be answered, and don’t be surprised that as those questions are answered, risk and thus operations will change.

In other words, the risk assessment the day before the 737 was lost was very different than the day after and is still very different three days later! It’s all very dynamic.


Totally agree with everything you said but unfortunately it’s too late for one flight. They could have benefited from a better risk assessment but now they’re being used AS the risk assessment.
 
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AlexA340B777
Posts: 163
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:34 am

And meanwhile TK and QR still flying over Iran... just now on FR24.
6 continents, 85 countries, 746 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
zkncj
Posts: 3892
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:48 am

P1aneMad wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Did I miss something or do FAA NOTAM's not affect airlines flying to the US?


No it does not.
It only applies to US registered airlines. Essentially DL, UA and AA.


Although most western countries tend to take on any advice/notams from FAA when it comes to safety.

Effectively any airline that is flying within x amount of km from Iran are currently doing so at some level of risk.
 
SSPhoenix
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 12:53 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:55 am

Excluding the US3, FedEx and UPS, I think there might be some inconsistencies in the way various airlines are assessing the risks of flying not only over Iran, but also through Iraq close to the Iranian border.

For example, Emirates and Qatar Airways are flying through these regions, but flights to & from Europe on Etihad and Gulf Air seem to be taking the more southerly route to Egypt, and then turning west into Saudi Arabia. Weird.
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mdavies06
Posts: 545
Joined: Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:28 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:20 am

longhauler wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
Not a single Emirates flight is passing thru the Iranian airspace.

Exactly.

It’s all about managing risk. As that risk changes, and it does by the minute, then so does the game plan.

Now that the 737 shot down on departure from Tehran has been admitted as a “mistake” then the risk changes dramatically. The investigation will continue, as well it should. Questions still need to be answered, and don’t be surprised that as those questions are answered, risk and thus operations will change.

In other words, the risk assessment the day before the 737 was lost was very different than the day after and is still very different three days later! It’s all very dynamic.


What is being described is actually either failure in risk assessment or risk limit was set too low, because risks need to be anticipated ahead. The possibility of a shoot down was always there, and is now crystallised. This shows EK has a high risk tolerance and only react to reduce overflight when the risk event was confirmed to have occurred, not when it had some possibility to have occurred.
 
xwb777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:11 am

Emirates flights to Seattle, LAX and SFO, are being rerouted to fly over the the Pakistani, Afghani and Uzbekistan airspaces to reach the US west coast.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:32 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Emirates flights to Seattle, LAX and SFO, are being rerouted to fly over the the Pakistani, Afghani and Uzbekistan airspaces to reach the US west coast.


Wasn't there a possible FAA order out recently that stated airlines should avoid Pakistani airspace? They really ought to avoid Afghani airspace as well.
 
johhnieonion
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:38 pm

I asked EK if they'd waive their normal refund fee for flights because of the current circumstances but unfortunately, that was rejected. I have a flight with them soon and they still overfly Iraq most of all their routes from DXB to Western Europe even though Iraq is regarded as the highest level of risk on the Safe Airspace website. I thought that could provide solid ground for free cancellation but apparently not. https://safeairspace.net/iraq/.
 
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AirKevin
Posts: 625
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:18 am

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:26 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
I asked EK if they'd waive their normal refund fee for flights because of the current circumstances but unfortunately, that was rejected. I have a flight with them soon and they still overfly Iraq most of all their routes from DXB to Western Europe even though Iraq is regarded as the highest level of risk on the Safe Airspace website. I thought that could provide solid ground for free cancellation but apparently not. https://safeairspace.net/iraq/.

Have a good flight.
Captain Kevin
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:59 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
I asked EK if they'd waive their normal refund fee for flights because of the current circumstances but unfortunately, that was rejected. I have a flight with them soon and they still overfly Iraq most of all their routes from DXB to Western Europe even though Iraq is regarded as the highest level of risk on the Safe Airspace website. I thought that could provide solid ground for free cancellation but apparently not. https://safeairspace.net/iraq/.


EK QR and a bunch of other airlines are being reckless about the situation, it's a matter of time before something bad happens
 
johhnieonion
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:14 pm

afgeneral wrote:

EK QR and a bunch of other airlines are being reckless about the situation, it's a matter of time before something bad happens



Yeah, that's what I feel but I'm probably just an overly anxious passenger who doesn't want to die by getting blasted out of the sky over a conflict zone. I'd like to think EK aren't being reckless and know much more than I do but when you see Iraq's airspace designated to the highest risk level and Emirates not reacting, well, it doesn't inspire confidence.

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