What is being described is actually either failure in risk assessment or risk limit was set too low, because risks need to be anticipated ahead. The possibility of a shoot down was always there, and is now crystallised. This shows EK has a high risk tolerance and only react to reduce overflight when the risk event was confirmed to have occurred, not when it had some possibility to have occurred.
What you say is correct, but think about the day before the 737 was shot down:
It certainly looked like a war brewing as the respective leaders were all thumping their chests causing security alerts to increase worldwide and more specifically in Iran. I can't imagine the work being done in the background at the corporate security departments of most airlines as they watched events very closely. All of them looking for some "event" causing alerts to sound, thus pulling the plug on Iran operations. 99.9% of the time, that "event" is not aviation related .... maybe something as obvious as political statements or actions, or maybe something as mundane as closing schools or movement of troops. But that "event" is noticed and risk is reassessed.
In this case, the "event" was
aviation related. The day after the 737 was shot down, the world and corporate security departments worldwide were taken by surprise. Operations changed, procedures changed and again, risk was reassessed.
The big issue today though .... is that when it was announced that the murder of 176 innocent people was an "accident" or "mistake" then all bets at risk assessment are off. It is virtually impossible to place a risk assessment on a "mistake". That is why I mentioned earlier that while the cause of the accident is known, the "cause of the cause" is not. Was it a weapon malfunction? Was it an uncontrollable sect taking actions in their own hands? Was it uncontrollable testosterone during a war event? In any case, the cause must be determined.
So where are we now?
In my uninformed opinion, until the cause of the "mistake" is determined and rectified
, then no airline should be flyng anywhere near Irani airspace. Personally, I am not as adept as many on here with the online "radar" websites ... is there any activity in Irani airspace? Is Emirates (for example) still overflying Iran? Is any airline still flying into Tehran? If so, I honestly can not imagine why? Emirates and Qatar Airways (for example) are not really cost accountable. The minimum cost of going around Iran is the price one pays for safety.
The term "reckless" is used above. I find that interesting as I stated in this thread above, because if Emirates (for example) lost an airplane now, knowing the risk involved then honestly, they may as well shut down! Social media is very powerful, can you imagine the world seeing that they risked lives for the sole purpose of saving movey? No one and I mean no one
would dare set foot on one of their aircraft!
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!