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COEWR787
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:41 pm

airhansa wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
Emirates flights to Seattle, LAX and SFO, are being rerouted to fly over the the Pakistani, Afghani and Uzbekistan airspaces to reach the US west coast.


Wasn't there a possible FAA order out recently that stated airlines should avoid Pakistani airspace? They really ought to avoid Afghani airspace as well.

Not quite. It was only about flying at low altitudes. The German NOTAM specifically says don't fly below FL330. US one does not spell out a specific altitude but in effect says to avoid airports and low altitudes.
 
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longhauler
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:54 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
What is being described is actually either failure in risk assessment or risk limit was set too low, because risks need to be anticipated ahead. The possibility of a shoot down was always there, and is now crystallised. This shows EK has a high risk tolerance and only react to reduce overflight when the risk event was confirmed to have occurred, not when it had some possibility to have occurred.


What you say is correct, but think about the day before the 737 was shot down:

It certainly looked like a war brewing as the respective leaders were all thumping their chests causing security alerts to increase worldwide and more specifically in Iran. I can't imagine the work being done in the background at the corporate security departments of most airlines as they watched events very closely. All of them looking for some "event" causing alerts to sound, thus pulling the plug on Iran operations. 99.9% of the time, that "event" is not aviation related .... maybe something as obvious as political statements or actions, or maybe something as mundane as closing schools or movement of troops. But that "event" is noticed and risk is reassessed.

In this case, the "event" was aviation related. The day after the 737 was shot down, the world and corporate security departments worldwide were taken by surprise. Operations changed, procedures changed and again, risk was reassessed.

The big issue today though .... is that when it was announced that the murder of 176 innocent people was an "accident" or "mistake" then all bets at risk assessment are off. It is virtually impossible to place a risk assessment on a "mistake". That is why I mentioned earlier that while the cause of the accident is known, the "cause of the cause" is not. Was it a weapon malfunction? Was it an uncontrollable sect taking actions in their own hands? Was it uncontrollable testosterone during a war event? In any case, the cause must be determined.

So where are we now?

In my uninformed opinion, until the cause of the "mistake" is determined and rectified, then no airline should be flyng anywhere near Irani airspace. Personally, I am not as adept as many on here with the online "radar" websites ... is there any activity in Irani airspace? Is Emirates (for example) still overflying Iran? Is any airline still flying into Tehran? If so, I honestly can not imagine why? Emirates and Qatar Airways (for example) are not really cost accountable. The minimum cost of going around Iran is the price one pays for safety.

The term "reckless" is used above. I find that interesting as I stated in this thread above, because if Emirates (for example) lost an airplane now, knowing the risk involved then honestly, they may as well shut down! Social media is very powerful, can you imagine the world seeing that they risked lives for the sole purpose of saving movey? No one and I mean no one would dare set foot on one of their aircraft!
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
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longhauler
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:15 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Yeah, that's what I feel but I'm probably just an overly anxious passenger who doesn't want to die by getting blasted out of the sky over a conflict zone. I'd like to think EK aren't being reckless and know much more than I do but when you see Iraq's airspace designated to the highest risk level and Emirates not reacting, well, it doesn't inspire confidence.


Looking at the current plot from Flight Radar 24, (I figured it out), I see that only "local" airlines are flying in Irani airspace right now. Emirates and Qatar are avoiding the airspace. It appears they are not being "reckless".

Personally, I don't think you are being "overly anxious" and raise valid concerns. Right now though, it looks like the world's airlines are taking this risk seriously.
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johhnieonion
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:24 pm

longhauler wrote:
Looking at the current plot from Flight Radar 24, (I figured it out), I see that only "local" airlines are flying in Irani airspace right now. Emirates and Qatar are avoiding the airspace. It appears they are not being "reckless".

Personally, I don't think you are being "overly anxious" and raise valid concerns. Right now though, it looks like the world's airlines are taking this risk seriously.


Yeah, Emirates have stopped overflying Iran for the last few days but they are still overflying Iraq on most of their Western Europe to DXB routes. Iraq is also currently at the highest level of airspace risk according to Safe Airspace.
 
COEWR787
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:31 pm

AFAICT no Western airlines are overflying Iran at this time. I have not seen an Emirates flight over Iran either. OTOH there are dozens of Qatar flights, a few Turkish flights, a dozen FlyDubai flights, a few Aeroflot flights and of course lots of various Iranian airlines flights can be seen over Iran.

Emirates is flying over Iraq. AFAICT no Western or South and East Asian airlines over Iraq either.

Many flights to and from Tehran are still operating.
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:05 pm

So how are companies dealing with their internal risk assessments regarding business travel?

Anyone here whose company has published travel ban on certain airlines due to them flying over the conflict zones of Iran/Iraq (of course I am not asking for the company names)?

Would be interesting to know, as the company that I am working for has not released anything as of today.
6 continents, 85 countries, 748 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:23 pm

Checking FR24 today several times, it seems that TK has stopped overflying Iran as well. TK still operated a flight to Teheran though... but TK planes cruising seem to avoid Irans airspace now.
6 continents, 85 countries, 748 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
Tomesh
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:19 pm

What is most interesting is the fact that LH Group was departing IKA a few hours before the PS flight and even after this tragic event they continued flying to IKA (Wednesday evening). As we can see layers of risk assessment (management, ops, pilots) did not assess this as dangerous.

From an outside in perspective (I do not work in the airline industry but do need to assess risk) this appears rather bizarre. What I had seen in this forum and beyond is that quite a few variables known shortly after the accident pointed towards a considerable probability of the plane having been shot down. This is obviously apart from any ideologically driven wishful thinking but trying to be objective. What is bizarre is the fact that for example LH Group did not take action or take the "better safe than sorry" approach on the basis of this probability.

Looking at this with a degree of cynicism one could almost say that Iran's leadership did not close the airspace due to the perceived benefit of international air traffic acting as a shield from retailliatory strikes of the US i.e. some flights would be useful as human shields. Some airlines fell for this. Ultimately (in my opinion) part of good risk assessment is about relentless questioning, diligent assessment of threats and not only about following (e.g. arguing that Tehran airport is open and no local NOTAMs). Do you guys think these airlines acted prudently?
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:25 pm

AlexA340B777 wrote:
Checking FR24 today several times, it seems that TK has stopped overflying Iran as well. TK still operated a flight to Teheran though... but TK planes cruising seem to avoid Irans airspace now.


I stand corrected... TK58 from IST to BKK is just flying north of Teheran right now...
6 continents, 85 countries, 748 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
YIMBY
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:57 pm

longhauler wrote:
mdavies06 wrote:
What is being described is actually either failure in risk assessment or risk limit was set too low, because risks need to be anticipated ahead. The possibility of a shoot down was always there, and is now crystallised. This shows EK has a high risk tolerance and only react to reduce overflight when the risk event was confirmed to have occurred, not when it had some possibility to have occurred.


What you say is correct, but think about the day before the 737 was shot down:

It certainly looked like a war brewing as the respective leaders were all thumping their chests causing security alerts to increase worldwide and more specifically in Iran. I can't imagine the work being done in the background at the corporate security departments of most airlines as they watched events very closely. All of them looking for some "event" causing alerts to sound, thus pulling the plug on Iran operations. 99.9% of the time, that "event" is not aviation related .... maybe something as obvious as political statements or actions, or maybe something as mundane as closing schools or movement of troops. But that "event" is noticed and risk is reassessed.

In this case, the "event" was aviation related. The day after the 737 was shot down, the world and corporate security departments worldwide were taken by surprise. Operations changed, procedures changed and again, risk was reassessed.

The big issue today though .... is that when it was announced that the murder of 176 innocent people was an "accident" or "mistake" then all bets at risk assessment are off. It is virtually impossible to place a risk assessment on a "mistake". That is why I mentioned earlier that while the cause of the accident is known, the "cause of the cause" is not. Was it a weapon malfunction? Was it an uncontrollable sect taking actions in their own hands? Was it uncontrollable testosterone during a war event? In any case, the cause must be determined.

So where are we now?

In my uninformed opinion, until the cause of the "mistake" is determined and rectified, then no airline should be flyng anywhere near Irani airspace. Personally, I am not as adept as many on here with the online "radar" websites ... is there any activity in Irani airspace? Is Emirates (for example) still overflying Iran? Is any airline still flying into Tehran? If so, I honestly can not imagine why? Emirates and Qatar Airways (for example) are not really cost accountable. The minimum cost of going around Iran is the price one pays for safety.

The term "reckless" is used above. I find that interesting as I stated in this thread above, because if Emirates (for example) lost an airplane now, knowing the risk involved then honestly, they may as well shut down! Social media is very powerful, can you imagine the world seeing that they risked lives for the sole purpose of saving movey? No one and I mean no one would dare set foot on one of their aircraft!


Very good analysis, but not to be limited in Iran.

Whether or not the cause was an erratic trigger-prone soldier with a big weapon or a deliberate rebellious terrorist, aggressive, sleep-deprived or just death-scary soldiers exist in all high-threat countries and I consider utmost risky to fly over or even near any country or region that is at war or under imminent threat of aerial attack, as well as whose military has discipline problems or tendencies for mutiny or sabotage. That unfortunately includes most of the ME (and some regions elsewhere, even parts of Europe).

The local airlines have to keep flying despite the risks. Otherwise they would cease to exist, and there are local needs for air transport, with little choice. Those airlines and passengers who have a choice can choose not to fly.
 
uta999
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:14 pm

Both MH17 and this latest event occurred in countries with no previous history of having shot down an airliner. No risk assessment would have flagged either in advance.

However, there is now a good chance that both countries could have a future event, so should be avoided, along with Iraq and Syria.

The problem is, you can add most of the ME, Horn of Africa and even Russia to the growing list of danger areas to be avoided. The Russians have the biggest history of fatalities when it comes to SAMs vs airliners by far.
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sonicruiser
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:57 pm

Interesting new flightpath for Emirates' TPAC flights via Pakistan

DXB-SEA: additional 0.5hr-1hr
DXB-SFO: additional 1.5hr-2hr
DXB-LAX: additional 1hr-1.5hr

Image

Image

Image
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
flyenthu
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:20 pm

SQ22 wrote:
I have updated the title and merged another thread into this thread. We do not need to have a single thread for every airlines suspending flights to and over Gulf Region.


Isn't Iraq considered a conflict zone considering Iran's missiles recently landed in Iraq? I know SQ avoids flights over Iran and Iraq. Why does EK continue to operate over Iraq when some airliners avoid it? Any thoughts?
 
flyenthu
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:23 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Interesting new flightpath for Emirates' TPAC flights via Pakistan

DXB-SEA: additional 0.5hr-1hr
DXB-SFO: additional 1.5hr-2hr
DXB-LAX: additional 1hr-1.5hr

Image

Image

Image


Not to be flippant about this, but EK is sort of screwed with respect to many North America/Europe flights because of this conflict in this area.
 
AA737-823
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:40 pm

I'm concerned about Emirates, too.
Looking at the JFK route, JFK-DXB I mean, on Tuesday, 202 and 204 overflew the conflict zone of Iraq, very near the border with Iran.
On Wednesday, ONE flight overflew Iraq, while the OTHER flight avoided conflict airspace altogether, opting to fly over Egypt and Saudi.

So it's like some pilots think "hmm, better not..." while other pilots think, "what's the worst that could happen!? We're Emirates, and everyone likes us."
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:41 pm

flyenthu wrote:
Isn't Iraq considered a conflict zone considering Iran's missiles recently landed in Iraq? I know SQ avoids flights over Iran and Iraq. Why does EK continue to operate over Iraq when some airliners avoid it? Any thoughts?


Because they have no other option?
DXB-IAH flew via Iraq and had to refuel in Toronto.
Nonstop is above 17hrs with the detour.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:55 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
flyenthu wrote:
Isn't Iraq considered a conflict zone considering Iran's missiles recently landed in Iraq? I know SQ avoids flights over Iran and Iraq. Why does EK continue to operate over Iraq when some airliners avoid it? Any thoughts?


Because they have no other option?
DXB-IAH flew via Iraq and had to refuel in Toronto.
Nonstop is above 17hrs with the detour.
QR is the one that would SOL if Iraq and Iran were made off limits. QR is still flying over Iran, but then again they have warm relations with Iran, so maybe there is some more comfort there.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:02 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
QR is the one that would SOL if Iraq and Iran were made off limits. QR is still flying over Iran, but then again they have warm relations with Iran, so maybe there is some more comfort there.


It's pretty incredible to see how much traffic is now being squeezed through Iraq on FR24. Baghdad center surely has to be amongst the world's busiest centers now?
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:11 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
QR is the one that would SOL if Iraq and Iran were made off limits. QR is still flying over Iran, but then again they have warm relations with Iran, so maybe there is some more comfort there.


It's pretty incredible to see how much traffic is now being squeezed through Iraq on FR24. Baghdad center surely has to be amongst the world's busiest centers now?

Iraq has also had the the threat of missle attacks in the current tensions with Iran.
 
flyenthu
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:01 am

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
flyenthu wrote:
Isn't Iraq considered a conflict zone considering Iran's missiles recently landed in Iraq? I know SQ avoids flights over Iran and Iraq. Why does EK continue to operate over Iraq when some airliners avoid it? Any thoughts?


Because they have no other option?
DXB-IAH flew via Iraq and had to refuel in Toronto.
Nonstop is above 17hrs with the detour.
QR is the one that would SOL if Iraq and Iran were made off limits. QR is still flying over Iran, but then again they have warm relations with Iran, so maybe there is some more comfort there.


Hmm..that way Ukraine probably has good relations with Iran too, no?
 
flyenthu
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:07 am

sonicruiser wrote:
flyenthu wrote:
Isn't Iraq considered a conflict zone considering Iran's missiles recently landed in Iraq? I know SQ avoids flights over Iran and Iraq. Why does EK continue to operate over Iraq when some airliners avoid it? Any thoughts?


Because they have no other option?
DXB-IAH flew via Iraq and had to refuel in Toronto.
Nonstop is above 17hrs with the detour.


It is a mess there and I hope it gets better very soon. I just flew on the IAH-DXB route on Dec 29 and it took 17 hr and 18 min by EK right before it got bad in the region. What a great plane (A380) and a great flight (sat in 41 C)! Sad all of this is taking place.
 
kevertje
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:49 am

This morning on Dutch radio : the Dutch government is discussing why KLM did only stop flying over Iran after the Ukrain-plane was crashed.
It's indeed an interesting question. After the MH17 disaster the Dutch should avoid all those airspaces which are conflict areas.
On the other end : where does it stop. The fly-areas in that regio are getting more and more tiny.

Source in dutch : https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/kamervrage ... ~a1301a70/
 
YIMBY
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Re: Airlines Suspending Overflights over entire Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:25 am

flyenthu wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:

Because they have no other option?
DXB-IAH flew via Iraq and had to refuel in Toronto.
Nonstop is above 17hrs with the detour.
QR is the one that would SOL if Iraq and Iran were made off limits. QR is still flying over Iran, but then again they have warm relations with Iran, so maybe there is some more comfort there.


Hmm..that way Ukraine probably has good relations with Iran too, no?


Yeah, the shooters probably had no idea what aircraft, airline and flag they were shooting at. Also the previous cases.

As we do not know the conditions and chain of events that lead to the shoot-down, it is hard to evaluate exactly the safety situation. Likely the threshold to shoot again is now substantially higher than before in Iran, so Iran may be the safest country thereabouts to fly over. Or maybe not. Do not forget that Saudi-Arabia is at war and there has been aerial attacks against Saudi Arabia, so their air defense is also at very high alert state. And Saudi Arabia has been the home of many infamous terrorists.
 
airhansa
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:59 am

The only options for EK and QR are to fly across the Indo-Pacific region to North America (and polar flights to Europe) unless routing via Cape Town is somehow quicker. The entire region around them (Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Xinjiang, Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia) is full of conflict, as well as many countries in Africa. The only route is through India, Burma/China and onto North America.
 
FANMD11
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:48 pm

Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:47 am

Tomesh wrote:
What is most interesting is the fact that LH Group was departing IKA a few hours before the PS flight and even after this tragic event they continued flying to IKA (Wednesday evening). As we can see layers of risk assessment (management, ops, pilots) did not assess this as dangerous.

From an outside in perspective (I do not work in the airline industry but do need to assess risk) this appears rather bizarre. What I had seen in this forum and beyond is that quite a few variables known shortly after the accident pointed towards a considerable probability of the plane having been shot down. This is obviously apart from any ideologically driven wishful thinking but trying to be objective. What is bizarre is the fact that for example LH Group did not take action or take the "better safe than sorry" approach on the basis of this probability.

Looking at this with a degree of cynicism one could almost say that Iran's leadership did not close the airspace due to the perceived benefit of international air traffic acting as a shield from retailliatory strikes of the US i.e. some flights would be useful as human shields. Some airlines fell for this. Ultimately (in my opinion) part of good risk assessment is about relentless questioning, diligent assessment of threats and not only about following (e.g. arguing that Tehran airport is open and no local NOTAMs). Do you guys think these airlines acted prudently?


I find interesting that Turkish, Qatar, Flydubai and Aeroflot keep overflying Iran, while other ME3 fly south over Iraq.
This morning Air France DXB-CDG flew a very southern route avoiding even Iraqi airspace. Do they always take that route or is it new ?
 
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mercure1
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Re: Airlines Suspending Flights to and over entire or parts of Gulf Region Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:07 pm

Lufthansa extends Tehran suspension until March 28. It also will not utilize Iranian airspace during period.

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-cr ... SL8N29M4P4
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