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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:32 am

AMP44 wrote:
Iran refuses to hand over the black box of the Ukrainian plane to Boeing (Google will translate it as Pyongyang though)

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/sta ... 3866568704


I think you are mistaken.

Boeing has no right to the boxes, they can participate in the investigation as an observer only (if invited). This is done deliberately so there is no conflict of interest.

International convention is for the investigation to be performed by Iran.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
AeroplaneFreak
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:34 am

yurieu wrote:
Remember those airplane crashes which fire shut down all lights and other electricals? What if this is the case?


In those cases there was radar and contact from the crew indicating something wrong.
 
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CrimsonNL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:37 am

Reading through this thread reminds me that there are some very special people among our user base. I'm amazed that there are people that believe that the Iranians would intentionally shoot down an airliner less then 50km (!) from the capital's international airport! One that belongs to a country they have no conflict with, carrying their own nationals too! They didn't even make it above 8000ft ffs..

Martijn
Always comparing your flown types list with mine
 
anrec80
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:37 am

Hmm - an interesting state of affairs, not sure how accurate. There are reports of 63 Canadians having been being onboard.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/63-canadi ... -1.4757783
 
CyberDashie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:38 am

CFM-56’s are fairly reliable and rarely (if ever) have in flight fires. Besides, their in-flight Fire suppression systems truly are world class (even if I am more partial to the CF-6). We have seen fans break off as well as a few other uncontained failures. However, an engine failure, or even a dual failure would not cause a failure of ADS-B, or any other issue with a transponder.
This flight’s data point (in regards to tracking) completely ceases while maintaining a positive climb.
The 737-800 is a true workhorse and I do not know of any other 737 (or any modern jet) crashing in such a manner within the first 2 or 3 minutes of climbout. The only similar crash I can think of at all would be Flight 191 and there was no fire when that plane came down, despite the ENTIRE loss of an engine.
Last edited by CyberDashie on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:41 am

May I kindly remind you to stay on known facts rather to speculate? As already mentioned please also keep out politics as much as possible. Thanks.
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:42 am

Iran would not deliberately shoot down a plane to hurt Boeing.
 
AMP44
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:42 am

zeke wrote:
AMP44 wrote:
Iran refuses to hand over the black box of the Ukrainian plane to Boeing (Google will translate it as Pyongyang though)

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/sta ... 3866568704


I think you are mistaken.

Boeing has no right to the boxes, they can participate in the investigation as an observer only (if invited). This is done deliberately so there is no conflict of interest.

International convention is for the investigation to be performed by Iran.


That's just what Sky News is mentioning, not me. They again post it, rephrasing it slightly:

"The Iranian authorities find the black boxes of the stricken Ukrainian plane and refuse to hand them over to Boeing". https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/sta ... 2150054912
Last edited by AMP44 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Draken21fx
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:43 am

anrec80 wrote:
Hmm - an interesting state of affairs, not sure how accurate. There are reports of 63 Canadians having been being onboard.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/63-canadi ... -1.4757783


Not really. It was mentioned earlier in the thread that there is a connected flight to Canada around midday plus Canada has a big Iranian diaspora so it should not be sth out of the norm, just people flying back home/see relatives.
 
loalq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:44 am

Has any other carrier announced they are halting IKA for now? Im thinking LH and EK would be specially concerned...
"...this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped."
 
FB330
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:46 am

My comments on the media coverage.

I have to say, I too am staggered by how low down this is on the news reports. I am staggered for two reasons; c180 innocent people have died today in a plane crash and two, there is little or no speculation about the potential link to the overnight conflict. News outlets are usually wild with speculation on matters such as this and I find it distinctly odd that they are saying "it is unknown whether there is a link". Whilst that may be factual at this stage....that wouldn't normally be the case.

It is as if people are being asked to downplay this in the media and are being directed to avoid speculation.

This is unusual.

Under normal circumstances, you would have some folks wondering around websites such as this and reposting theories....

I'm shocked this morning....not just because of the incident, but of the 'relative' little noise it is creating given the potential for this to be of outside influence.
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:50 am

CrimsonNL wrote:
Reading through this thread reminds me that there are some very special people among our user base. I'm amazed that there are people that believe that the Iranians would intentionally shoot down an airliner less then 50km (!) from the capital's international airport! One that belongs to a country they have no conflict with, carrying their own nationals too! They didn't even make it above 8000ft ffs..

Martijn


No one has suggested this was intention on the part of Iran in any credible post I've seen. The chance of an accidental shoot down is remarkable high though given the tensions in the area.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
CyberDashie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:50 am

FB330 wrote:
My comments on the media coverage.

I have to say, I too am staggered by how low down this is on the news reports. I am staggered for two reasons; c180 innocent people have died today in a plane crash and two, there is little or no speculation about the potential link to the overnight conflict. News outlets are usually wild with speculation on matters such as this and I find it distinctly odd that they are saying "it is unknown whether there is a link". Whilst that may be factual at this stage....that wouldn't normally be the case.

It is as if people are being asked to downplay this in the media and are being directed to avoid speculation.

This is unusual.

Under normal circumstances, you would have some folks wondering around websites such as this and reposting theories....

I'm shocked this morning....not just because of the incident, but of the 'relative' little noise it is creating given the potential for this to be of outside influence.


It really is quite odd. You would think the news agencies would be ablaze with speculation, given the sensationalism that would stem from drawing their own conclusions. Perhaps they are downplaying it to keep the general public calm? It’s a tragedy no matter how you slice it.
 
yurieu
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:58 am

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Remember those airplane crashes which fire shut down all lights and other electricals? What if this is the case?


In those cases there was radar and contact from the crew indicating something wrong.




Im just a airplane noob, but maybe there was cabin fire, smoke, and people got unconscicousness.
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:00 am

From Reuters:

MORE: Ukraine's embassy in Iran says any previous comments about the cause of the crash were not official
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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Polot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:01 am

CyberDashie wrote:
FB330 wrote:
My comments on the media coverage.

I have to say, I too am staggered by how low down this is on the news reports. I am staggered for two reasons; c180 innocent people have died today in a plane crash and two, there is little or no speculation about the potential link to the overnight conflict. News outlets are usually wild with speculation on matters such as this and I find it distinctly odd that they are saying "it is unknown whether there is a link". Whilst that may be factual at this stage....that wouldn't normally be the case.

It is as if people are being asked to downplay this in the media and are being directed to avoid speculation.

This is unusual.

Under normal circumstances, you would have some folks wondering around websites such as this and reposting theories....

I'm shocked this morning....not just because of the incident, but of the 'relative' little noise it is creating given the potential for this to be of outside influence.


It really is quite odd. You would think the news agencies would be ablaze with speculation, given the sensationalism that would stem from drawing their own conclusions. Perhaps they are downplaying it to keep the general public calm? It’s a tragedy no matter how you slice it.


It happened in the middle of the night in the US when most people are asleep. Just wait a few hours.
 
N757ST
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:01 am

The US news agencies had previously had slogans up saying a technical fault was believed to be the problem. They have all been taken down.
 
m007j
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:03 am

xwb777 wrote:
What are those holes in the aircraft fuselage?


One possibility is a surface to air missile (SAM)- most Russian SAMs have proximity fuzes, meaning that they explode near the target causing shrapnel damage to bring down a target. I say Russian SAMs as Iran has has a lot of indigenous systems, but they also have SA-6s and S300s. The size of those holes are not out of question for a SAM, as they're more intended for smaller targets (fighters).

*Please do not quote me on this later as being conclusive on this topic-I am only suggesting possibilities and I have no idea what happened
 
Rara
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:04 am

loalq wrote:
Has any other carrier announced they are halting IKA for now? Im thinking LH and EK would be specially concerned...


LH600 (FRA-IKA) has been cancelled for today. It's currently still scheduled for tomorrow. More to do with the missile attack than with the crash I gather.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
sevenair
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Tehran Airports Operations

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:06 am

It appears that almost all departures from Merhabad airport are delayed or cancelled and have been since the first departure. In fact it seems (FR24) that all but one flight (to Shiraz) are delayed or have an unknown status.

It also seems that the westerly departures from IKA following the accident flight were cancelled or have an 'unknown' flight status. The flights before the crash flight are largely on time. Then there's the accident flight, a QR flight around 45 mins later then the following half dozen flights cancelled, unknown or delayed.

So Merbabad has had severe disruption from the first flight of the day onwards. IKA operations were largely regular until the crash flight.

Could this be reactionary? Does anyone know where the Iraq bound missiles were shot from in relation to the city's airports?
Last edited by sevenair on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
michi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:14 am

Some observations:

The initial track shown on FR24 looks like a NABAX SID (R285 IKA VOR until D33 IKA). However the aircraft did a right turn around D10 IKA. This turn might have been a direct clearance by ATC. This clearance needs communication. It is not known wether this happened or not.
Shortly after turning right the transponder signal ceased for whatever reason.

The crashsite position according Aviation Herald is somewhere 10NM east of the latest transponder signal. This suggests some further right turn. It might look like a turn back towards the airport.

Some more information regarding the airport:
- IKA airport elevation is 3305ft.
- According FR24 the aircraft reached around 8000ftMSL. This is "only" 4700ft AGL.
- MSA in that area is 6500ft MSL Mountains north with MGA up to 15000ft. To the west terrain with MGA up to 11100ft.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:19 am

osiris30 wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:
Reading through this thread reminds me that there are some very special people among our user base. I'm amazed that there are people that believe that the Iranians would intentionally shoot down an airliner less then 50km (!) from the capital's international airport! One that belongs to a country they have no conflict with, carrying their own nationals too! They didn't even make it above 8000ft ffs..

Martijn


No one has suggested this was intention on the part of Iran in any credible post I've seen. The chance of an accidental shoot down is remarkable high though given the tensions in the area.


I'd say very likely. The one video showing the decent to ground level clearly shows an airframe engulfed in flames falling almost vertically. The images of the holes in the fuselage are very suspect IMO only. I agree it's highly unlikely anything was intentional if this was not mechanical. However, that's why the phrase "The Fog of War" was created. The fact that Iran has the FDR and CVR is not confidence building as far as an accurate outcome goes IMO.
"To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:23 am

Iran has no obligation to hand over the black boxes to Boeing, or anyone else, they are in charge of the investigation.
However, given the situation, its unlikely that this will be an open investigation regardless of the cause.
 
Miquel787
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:24 am

KLM is suspending all flights to Iran and Irak today. Boeing is not allowed to examine the black boxes and Iran blaimes Boeing for the accident with the Ukrainian 737.This was on Dutch radio half an hour ago..

In my opinion nobody knows what happened..In the current situation sure they blame Boeing but this is stupid. There are so much unknowns. Now Ukrainian Airlines suspends flights to Teheran. And if they had an engine problem how could it crash? It can fly on one engine..


The speculationbox is opened. And it.s gonna be a difficult investigation with so much at stake. I hope it will be sorted.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:27 am

Miquel787 wrote:
KLM is suspending all flights to Iran and Irak today. Boeing is not allowed to examine the black boxes and Iran blaimes Boeing for the accident with the Ukrainian 737.This was on Dutch radio half an hour ago..

In my opinion nobody knows what happened..In the current situation sure they blame Boeing but this is stupid. There are so much unknowns. Now Ukrainian Airlines suspends flights to Teheran. And if they had an engine problem how could it crash? It can fly on one engine..


The speculationbox is opened. And it.s gonna be a difficult investigation with so much at stake. I hope it will be sorted.


If Iran has nothing to hide, why not send the CVR and FDR to a neutral party?
 
aircatalonia
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:28 am

SimonL wrote:
Iran has no obligation to hand over the black boxes to Boeing, or anyone else, they are in charge of the investigation.
However, given the situation, its unlikely that this will be an open investigation regardless of the cause.


Maybe Russia will offer to help with the investigation.
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:33 am

An accidental downing of an airliner has happen before so it wont be that unlikely that some nervous guy at the air defense made a bad decision. And its seems more likely than a mechanical failure. But we cannot know for sure. Hopefully there will come out enough information to solve the puzzle.
 
720B
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:33 am

On a related note, Ukraine International closes Tehran reservations from Jan 2020; as per routes online

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -jan-2020/
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:36 am

michi wrote:
Some observations:

Some more information regarding the airport:
- IKA airport elevation is 3305ft.
- According FR24 the aircraft reached around 8000ftMSL. This is "only" 4700ft AGL.
- MSA in that area is 6500ft MSL Mountains north with MGA up to 15000ft. To the west terrain with MGA up to 11100ft.

Great observations. I think you're the first one in this thread to point out that the IKA airport elevation is 3305 ft, so max AGL was only 4700 ft.
 
planecane
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:38 am

Miquel787 wrote:
KLM is suspending all flights to Iran and Irak today. Boeing is not allowed to examine the black boxes and Iran blaimes Boeing for the accident with the Ukrainian 737.This was on Dutch radio half an hour ago..

In my opinion nobody knows what happened..In the current situation sure they blame Boeing but this is stupid. There are so much unknowns. Now Ukrainian Airlines suspends flights to Teheran. And if they had an engine problem how could it crash? It can fly on one engine..


The speculationbox is opened. And it.s gonna be a difficult investigation with so much at stake. I hope it will be sorted.


I don't have much confidence that there will be a true scientific investigation. We don't need someone to blame. We need a real investigation to determine the actual root cause so that future accidents can possibly be prevented if the cause reveals a flaw of some type.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:40 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
If Iran has nothing to hide, why not send the CVR and FDR to a neutral party?


They often are. I would not be surprised if they were sent to the BEA. All the BEA would do is read the data boxes and send the data back to Iran.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
macc
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:48 am

planecane wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
KLM is suspending all flights to Iran and Irak today. Boeing is not allowed to examine the black boxes and Iran blaimes Boeing for the accident with the Ukrainian 737.This was on Dutch radio half an hour ago..

In my opinion nobody knows what happened..In the current situation sure they blame Boeing but this is stupid. There are so much unknowns. Now Ukrainian Airlines suspends flights to Teheran. And if they had an engine problem how could it crash? It can fly on one engine..


The speculationbox is opened. And it.s gonna be a difficult investigation with so much at stake. I hope it will be sorted.


I don't have much confidence that there will be a true scientific investigation. We don't need someone to blame. We need a real investigation to determine the actual root cause so that future accidents can possibly be prevented if the cause reveals a flaw of some type.


Perhaps you should just wait before assuming anything?
I exchanged political frustration with sexual boredom. better spoil a girl than the world
 
loalq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:54 am

Quick historical search shows that some 80pct of the rotations to IKA were performed with -PSR, which shows they are probably running a tight schedule and without the plane are not even able to keep the route operational.
"...this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped."
 
DALMD80
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:01 pm

Until I saw that it was 3 years old I was going to say pickle fork issues...
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:18 pm

planecane wrote:
I don't have much confidence that there will be a true scientific investigation. We don't need someone to blame. We need a real investigation to determine the actual root cause so that future accidents can possibly be prevented if the cause reveals a flaw of some type.


I think that is an unfair dispersion, the CAO.IR previous investigations I think have been very comprehensive. If anything I would classify them as being above average.

Eg https://www.cao.ir/web/accidents/report ... FBPT0=.pdf

For that accident a separate report was written regarding the passenger injuries by the medical examiner office.

http://www.ams.ac.ir/AIM/NEWPUB/12/15/5/0014.pdf
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:21 pm

32andBelow wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:

Everyone is just quoting this al hadath account.


Al hadath Is Saudi owned and therefore not a valid source
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:23 pm

zeke wrote:
planecane wrote:
I don't have much confidence that there will be a true scientific investigation. We don't need someone to blame. We need a real investigation to determine the actual root cause so that future accidents can possibly be prevented if the cause reveals a flaw of some type.


I think that is an unfair dispersion, the CAO.IR previous investigations I think have been very comprehensive. If anything I would classify them as being above average.

Eg https://www.cao.ir/web/accidents/report ... FBPT0=.pdf

For that accident a separate report was written regarding the passenger injuries by the medical examiner office.

http://www.ams.ac.ir/AIM/NEWPUB/12/15/5/0014.pdf


I'm curious. Do you believe the 737NG to have a dubious safety record?
 
lowbank
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:28 pm

As it’s dinner time now I will post a couple of thoughts.
People are talking about engine failure, so can an engine failure cause what’s seen on the video.
I would have to say yes, disk or blisk failures follow the same failure mode. They break into three pieces, one always larger than the other two. They carry large amounts of energy. See QF 32 disk failure, if one of those sections went up through the wing it could cause the type of failure in the video.

There are photos of QF32’s wing which had damage from the engine issue, some look similar to the pictures on this thread, however they had gone through the wing not just embedded like the photo on here. I don’t have time to download the qf32 report and post the images, but it could be useful comparison for people if someone could.
 
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OA940
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:29 pm

Iranian authorities have not been afraid to blame their own in investigations, so unless the government is directly involved in this I have faith, however I hope they cooperate with the NTSB. Politics should never get in the way of safety.

Also, looking at the pics from AVH, that engine damage does not seem like post-impact damage to me. I could be wrong though. Let's all hope it was anything but a shootdown.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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Aesma
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:30 pm

AMP44 wrote:
zeke wrote:
AMP44 wrote:
Iran refuses to hand over the black box of the Ukrainian plane to Boeing (Google will translate it as Pyongyang though)

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/sta ... 3866568704


I think you are mistaken.

Boeing has no right to the boxes, they can participate in the investigation as an observer only (if invited). This is done deliberately so there is no conflict of interest.

International convention is for the investigation to be performed by Iran.


That's just what Sky News is mentioning, not me. They again post it, rephrasing it slightly:

"The Iranian authorities find the black boxes of the stricken Ukrainian plane and refuse to hand them over to Boeing". https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/sta ... 2150054912


Then the "journalist" doesn't know what he's talking about, par for the course with aviation (and most subjects).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Danny
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:31 pm

hpff wrote:
AeroplaneFreak wrote:
Does anyone have a list of incidents where fire led to a commercial aircraft falling out of the sky within minutes?


There are quite a few. The one that comes to mind is the LOT crash.


Which one?
 
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Polot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:32 pm

zeke wrote:
planecane wrote:
I don't have much confidence that there will be a true scientific investigation. We don't need someone to blame. We need a real investigation to determine the actual root cause so that future accidents can possibly be prevented if the cause reveals a flaw of some type.


I think that is an unfair dispersion, the CAO.IR previous investigations I think have been very comprehensive. If anything I would classify them as being above average.

Eg https://www.cao.ir/web/accidents/report ... FBPT0=.pdf

For that accident a separate report was written regarding the passenger injuries by the medical examiner office.

http://www.ams.ac.ir/AIM/NEWPUB/12/15/5/0014.pdf

I don’t think it will ever be possible for people to trust the Iranian investigation unless the outright say we shot the plane down ourselves by mistake. Previous investigations were comprehensive, but you can’t ignore and separate the tension that has arisen this week. Iranian government may not want to admit they accidentally shot down an aircraft at this time, and unless they can come up with a clear unequivocal smoking gun for a technical failure there will always be allegations that CAO.IR is covering up an accidental shoot down, especially if the investigation is insular with limited information given to neutral parties.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:32 pm

OA940 wrote:
Iranian authorities have not been afraid to blame their own in investigations, so unless the government is directly involved in this I have faith, however I hope they cooperate with the NTSB. Politics should never get in the way of safety.

Also, looking at the pics from AVH, that engine damage does not seem like post-impact damage to me. I could be wrong though. Let's all hope it was anything but a shootdown.


So you would rather there be a fatal flaw in thousands of aircraft than an isolated incident of a mistaken shoot-down?
 
Mick34
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:33 pm

Just my thoughts:

- Irianian defenses were on high alert for a strike from US aircraft.
- The plane was just above the Malard missile launch site when it disappeared from radar > https://twitter.com/Kaitain_AZ/status/1214821454711160832
- I have seen photos with projectile holes in the debris > https://twitter.com/JacdecNew/status/1214798706295357440
- Irianians were too quick to state it was mechanical...

I think it is very possible that it was shot down unintentionally given the circumstances.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:34 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If Iran has nothing to hide, why not send the CVR and FDR to a neutral party?


It's possible and common, I'm a bit surprised such talk is happening hours after the crash though.

If relations were the best they have been in decades, I wouldn't expect those boxes to be sent to the US, but the French BEA might have gotten them.

With what's happening right now, I don't see which country with enough expertise can be called a neutral party though. Any country Iran would consider will not be seen as neutral by the US/Canada.
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Kadish
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
Kadish wrote:
For those of u who may think that Iranian government took part in this sad crash, Can you tell me why they hit a plane from a foreign country with a lot of Iranian pax on ir, and a country with no issues against them?
It could be plausible If the plane were American,Saudi Arabian....


I don't think anyone is suggesting Iran deliberately shot down a passenger airliner, especially not with their history. But, until shown otherwise, in the circumstances an accidental shootdown is a distinct possibility.

See IR655
See MH17


As far as I know the IR655 is not yet clear. While president Bush basically said it was a war accident. Later around 199x Newsweek said that the government covered many things that obviously were totally diferent from the oficial version, and the USS Vincennes’captain said they were sailing in Iranian water space. Those are facts. To me, as far as I know they are as different as night and day.

MH17 reading, listening...I get the idea that whoever ( Russia,Ukreine...)hit the plane deliberately.
 
716131
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:35 pm

UIA will suspend flights to Tehran in response to plane crash.

https://www.unian.info/society/10821575 ... ehran.html
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:38 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Great idea. Let's pay them 1.5 billion in cash to investigate MH370 to while we're at it...
Sorry, that might be political,



What do you mean here?


"Rouhani tweeted that America should 'never threaten Iran' after warning the US should 'remember the number 290' in reference to an incident when the US Navy accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger jet in the Persian Gulf in July 1988, killing 290."

Here's the article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html

Ah yes, the prestigious daily mail. Tell me, what on Earth does the US shooting down an airliner have in common with Lockerbie except that both were deliberate drownings of aircraft? What kind of mental gymnastics does it take to conclude that this was a threat? Sounds more to me a reminder of what Iranians perceive as American war crimes.

Given that Iran has been too quick to say the plane crashed due to technical issues when it is unlikely they would really know that, I’d say the Occam’s Razor is that Iran mistakenly hit it with one of their missiles intended for a USA target. They said on Al Jazeera last night that “Iran fired two kinds of missiles, one with advanced tracking of the target”. That basically says one is little better than artillery.

I will say the fact that Ukraine is involved in this is staggeringly coincidental.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:43 pm

Kadish wrote:
As far as I know the IR655 is not yet clear. While president Bush basically said it was a war accident. Later around 199x Newsweek said that the government covered many things that obviously were totally diferent from the oficial version, and the USS Vincennes’captain said they were sailing in Iranian water space. Those are facts. To me, as far as I know they are as different as night and day.

MH17 reading, listening...I get the idea that whoever ( Russia,Ukreine...)hit the plane deliberately.


Even if everything you say about the circumstances around IR655 is correct, the US did not deliberately shoot down a civilian airliner.

I don't believe anyone deliberately targeted MH17 as a civilian airliner.

Regardless, the point is, civilian airliners have mistakenly been shot down before at times of high tension. It is entirely possible it's just happened again.
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Gonzalo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
Kadish wrote:
As far as I know the IR655 is not yet clear. While president Bush basically said it was a war accident. Later around 199x Newsweek said that the government covered many things that obviously were totally diferent from the oficial version, and the USS Vincennes’captain said they were sailing in Iranian water space. Those are facts. To me, as far as I know they are as different as night and day.

MH17 reading, listening...I get the idea that whoever ( Russia,Ukreine...)hit the plane deliberately.


Even if everything you say about the circumstances around IR655 is correct, the US did not deliberately shoot down a civilian airliner.

I don't believe anyone deliberately targeted MH17 as a civilian airliner.

Regardless, the point is, civilian airliners have mistakenly been shot down before at times of high tension. It is entirely possible it's just happened again.


Not only "at times of high tension". Korean Air 007 was shoot down in a relatively calm phase of the Cold War ( 1983 IIRC, I mean, it was not 1962! ).
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