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eidvm
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:22 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
trijetsonly wrote:
eidvm wrote:
What would be the possibility that this was a USA/Western missile targeting a close by Iranian military site that instead accidentally hit an airliner, rather than the other way around?

Are there any possible target sites in the vicinity of where the aircraft was hit, assuming/speculating a possible missile strike?


I thought the same.



One single western missile hitting one single Ukrainian airliner at 630am with nothing else hit or launched by the west. I'd give it about a 0.00% chance.


Well given this happened about 45 minutes after an Iranian missile attack on American military bases in Iraq is there not a possibility this is not a retaliatory shot back at a target close to the capital, a warning shot that went wrong?

Someone above mentioned that the aircraft was close to an Iranian military installation, I don’t think it should be ruled out yet that this could have been a warning shot gone wrong if that is the case.

An attempted show of power by taking out a military installation right beside the capital that accidentally hit an airliner?
 
P1aneMad
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:24 pm

sharpley wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.

Who do they hand them to? It crashed in Iran and its their investigation.


They hand them to the Ukrainians or Europeans IF they don't want the results of the investigation to be laughed at like the results of the Russian investigators for MH17.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:26 pm

lowbank wrote:
Link to the article with the picture in it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html


In that link you can see photos of both sides of the vertical stab. Under the “silly stories” photo there is a photo of the other side.

I don’t understand the impact damage at the tip of the vertical edge stab, I also don’t understand the amount of soot on the vertical stab, especially the other side which show evidence of burning. The vertical stab is by itself with unburnt grass around it.
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flyingturtle
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:26 pm

heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.


Anyway, it falls to the Iranian aviation authority to investigate the accident. They can decide who will read out the FDR and CVR. They could ask the Chinese or the French.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:27 pm

eidvm wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
trijetsonly wrote:

I thought the same.



One single western missile hitting one single Ukrainian airliner at 630am with nothing else hit or launched by the west. I'd give it about a 0.00% chance.


Well given this happened about 45 minutes after an Iranian missile attack on American military bases in Iraq is there not a possibility this is not a retaliatory shot back at a target close to the capital, a warning shot that went wrong?

Someone above mentioned that the aircraft was close to an Iranian military installation, I don’t think it should be ruled out yet that this could have been a warning shot gone wrong if that is the case.

An attempted show of power by taking out a military installation right beside the capital that accidentally hit an airliner?


If Iran thought for even one second they could blame this on the US they would would already be screaming.

The US already said if Iran attacked US troops they launch and all our assault against Iran, not a single warning shot
 
TXMikeDC
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:29 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Isn't it 07:30 in the Morning in Tehran right now? The videos seem pretty dark.

Time zones man. It doesn’t get light where I live until like 0900

That probably had less to do with your time zone and more to do with your latitude.


Actually, being on the west side of a time zone has a significant effect on sunrise and sunset times relative to being on the east side of the time zone.
 
sharpley
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:29 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
sharpley wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.

Who do they hand them to? It crashed in Iran and its their investigation.


You really think Iran has the capability to download data from modern flight recorders? Look at their fleet of aircraft... Ethiopia is a much more modern country and they had to send theirs to BEA to be examined.

I agree that Iran probably don't have the ability to download data, but as they will be leading any investigation they don't have to hand the boxes over if they don't want to. Even if they did, who would they trust? Perfect scenario for a cover up.
 
morrisond
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:30 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


Exactly - Or if it was a heat seaker it would have impacted the tail pipe of one of the engines making it appear it was an uncontained failure - and the instant explosion really seems to suggest explosives were involved. Damage in the tail seals it for me.

Very unfortunate for all those onboard.

These stupid conflicts really have to stop.

I think if the people of the world were actually allowed to vote on it we would outlaw any future conflicts and kick any politician who seeks to control us through fear out of office.

In general when have you met people from another country in person and found them not to be nice? We all bash each other on these forums but I think if we sat down for coffee things would be a lot different.
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:32 pm

heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.


To whom exactly? Per ICAO, they are the first entity to conduct an investigation as the accident happened on their soil, so to whom they should pass the boxes exactly?

Viper911
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:37 pm

Viper911 wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.


To whom exactly? Per ICAO, they are the first entity to conduct an investigation as the accident happened on their soil, so to whom they should pass the boxes exactly?

Viper911


Why are you confused? Iran doesn't have the capability to read the flight recorders. Lots of countries don't. That's why they will send them off to a country that can. It's happened many times before. Do you think Iran should be able to hold on to them forever without the data being examined? Why wouldn't you want Iran to be pressured to give them up?
 
richierich
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:37 pm

eidvm wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
trijetsonly wrote:

I thought the same.



One single western missile hitting one single Ukrainian airliner at 630am with nothing else hit or launched by the west. I'd give it about a 0.00% chance.


Well given this happened about 45 minutes after an Iranian missile attack on American military bases in Iraq is there not a possibility this is not a retaliatory shot back at a target close to the capital, a warning shot that went wrong?

Someone above mentioned that the aircraft was close to an Iranian military installation, I don’t think it should be ruled out yet that this could have been a warning shot gone wrong if that is the case.

An attempted show of power by taking out a military installation right beside the capital that accidentally hit an airliner?


No need to keep harping on this, but that would be highly - improbably - unlikely. In my opinion, it is more feasible that this was some sort of nervous reaction from the said 'Iranian military installation.' I don't want to blame anybody without more information, but if there is enough evidence to imply that it was shot down, then it would have been much more likely from a local origin.

First of all, I am deeply saddened by this tragic loss of life. No matter where the victims come from, Canada, Iran, Sweden or Ukraine, this is a horrible way to start 2020. Let's hope the authorities get to the bottom of this crash - I'm thinking Iran should send the black boxes to France or Germany for a non-partisan reading. Unfortunately, I doubt Boeing or American investigators will be allowed the investigate, as is usually custom when an American-made airliner goes down, but I'd be happy if a western European country assists.
None shall pass!!!!
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:37 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
sharpley wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.

Who do they hand them to? It crashed in Iran and its their investigation.


Maybe to someone who has the ability to read it?


Yeah, because our intelligence agencies do not have the capabilities of reading it. Lol.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:39 pm

Does anyone know if the 737 sends data back to its owner's manintance departments like AF447 did? I'm just wondering if UIA maybe received any notification of a technical issue.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:39 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


Post #459 already showed that you are wrong. Have you ever been in an accident investigation? Then you should know not to assume anything but find solid facts to verify what happened.
 
pickafivestring
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:42 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Viper911 wrote:

Why are you confused? Iran doesn't have the capability to read the flight recorders. Lots of countries don't. That's why they will send them off to a country that can. It's happened many times before. Do you think Iran should be able to hold on to them forever without the data being examined? Why wouldn't you want Iran to be pressured to give them up?




Are CVR and FDR's encrypted? No way they could be reverse engineered?
 
Salina Chan
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:42 pm

Regarding a US missile:
The coast to the Persian Gulf is at least 620 kms away from the crash site, the border to a remote area in Iraq about 450 kms. Certainly within the range of a ballistic missile or a cruise missile, however, that's not what one uses to bring down an aircraft. The longest range air-to-air missile deployed by the US is the AIM-120 AMRAAM with a range of 160 kms, so one would needed to be deep within Iranian airspace to reach a target at the capital and while a F-22 could probably get there undetected...why? As for anything launched from a ship or Iraq, a Patriot has a range of 160 kms as well, and an SM-2 tops at 185 kms. A THAAD can go somewhat further, as can a ship launched SM-3 but they are both meant to destroy incoming ballistic threats, not an airliner less than 5,000 ft AGL hundreds of kilometers away.
Conspiracy mode ON:
If anyone wants to pin the blame on the US, than how about a UAV operating in the vicinity and either hitting the Boeing or someone trying to take it down and hitting the jetliner instead (wasn't a RC-135 somewhat involved in the KAL incident in 1983 as well?)
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:42 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


See reply #459. Maybe it's not so obvious?

heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....


Refusing? On what legal basis are they required to hand them over to anyone?

TTailedTiger wrote:
A 737 comes barrelling out of the sky in a fireball in a country that had very hot military activity that day and some people are first to blame the airplane.


Who specifically blamed Boeing or the 737?

TTailedTiger wrote:
Nevermind the fact the 737NG has millions of hours of safe operation under its belt and nothing of the sort has ever happened to it or any of its former variants before.


*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*
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Pavlakakos
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:43 pm

This is just a rumor and i just wanted to share with you. The mother of a flight attendant said she received a phone call from her daughter saying machine guns were being fired in the cabin and then the connection ended.
The stewardess was from the city of Nova Kakhovka and was my wife's classmate. Don't know if the rumor stands, however i guess we'll soon find out. If there was indeed gunfire, the Iranians will be quick to reveal that info, in order to clear themselves from the missile theory.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:45 pm

THS214 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


Post #459 already showed that you are wrong. Have you ever been in an accident investigation? Then you should know not to assume anything but find solid facts to verify what happened.


One picture showed small stones....there are others that show rips in the skin where the skin bends inward like a puncture. That’s shrapnel
 
Virtual737
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*


That was the classics and jurassics. The NG didn't have a related crash..

Correction.... he wrote "or former" so wasn't just limited to the NG anyway. Apologies.
Last edited by Virtual737 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:46 pm

Pavlakakos wrote:
This is just a rumor and i just wanted to share with you. The mother of a flight attendant said she received a phone call from her daughter saying machine guns were being fired in the cabin and then the connection ended.
The stewardess was from the city of Nova Kakhovka and was my wife's classmate. Don't know if the rumor stands, however i guess we'll soon find out. If there was indeed gunfire, the Iranians will be quick to reveal that info, in order to clear themselves from the missile theory.


Interesting.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:48 pm

zeke wrote:
lowbank wrote:
Link to the article with the picture in it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html


In that link you can see photos of both sides of the vertical stab. Under the “silly stories” photo there is a photo of the other side.

I don’t understand the impact damage at the tip of the vertical edge stab, I also don’t understand the amount of soot on the vertical stab, especially the other side which show evidence of burning. The vertical stab is by itself with unburnt grass around it.

I am confused. In the first picture published on Aviation Herald...

Image

... you cannot see soot on the tail fin. But in the picture Zeke mentioned you can:
Image
Did they really turn around the tail fin? This yellow cup-Thing (oxygen mask?) still seems to be on the same place. And why and how would turn the tail fin?
 
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keesje
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:48 pm

They'll know soon enough what happened. Wreckage & FDR's are in.Those FDR's can be analyzed everywhere.

Based on a video clip (real?) I would say starboard CFM uncountained failure, a fire progressing & reaching the wing tank shortly before crash.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:49 pm

scbriml wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


See reply #459. Maybe it's not so obvious?

heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....


Refusing? On what legal basis are they required to hand them over to anyone?

TTailedTiger wrote:
A 737 comes barrelling out of the sky in a fireball in a country that had very hot military activity that day and some people are first to blame the airplane.


Who specifically blamed Boeing or the 737?

TTailedTiger wrote:
Nevermind the fact the 737NG has millions of hours of safe operation under its belt and nothing of the sort has ever happened to it or any of its former variants before.


*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*


Which accident with the 737 rudder hard-over ended up in a flying fireball? I said "nothing of the sort". You need to learn to read all of the post. This crash has no similarities with any previous 737 crash.
 
OlafW
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:49 pm

zeke wrote:
lowbank wrote:
Link to the article with the picture in it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html


In that link you can see photos of both sides of the vertical stab. Under the “silly stories” photo there is a photo of the other side.

I don’t understand the impact damage at the tip of the vertical edge stab, I also don’t understand the amount of soot on the vertical stab, especially the other side which show evidence of burning. The vertical stab is by itself with unburnt grass around it.


You beat me to that question. Would be interesting to know which side was up originally. With the unburnt grass around it, I got the impression that the soot marks didn't get there on the ground, but rather are an effect from some kind of fire in the air - whether missile explosion or an effect of the burning engine seen on the video, I have no idea.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:52 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*


That was the classics and jurassics, not the NG.


I know, but he said "... or any of its former variants".
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:55 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
THS214 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


Post #459 already showed that you are wrong. Have you ever been in an accident investigation? Then you should know not to assume anything but find solid facts to verify what happened.


One picture showed small stones....there are others that show rips in the skin where the skin bends inward like a puncture. That’s shrapnel


Just pointed that some evidence from real pictures are fabricated for a cause (see what you want to see). I'll rather wait for real facts instead jump to conclusions. Maybe you should do that as well.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:58 pm

OlafW wrote:
zeke wrote:
lowbank wrote:
Link to the article with the picture in it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html


In that link you can see photos of both sides of the vertical stab. Under the “silly stories” photo there is a photo of the other side.

I don’t understand the impact damage at the tip of the vertical edge stab, I also don’t understand the amount of soot on the vertical stab, especially the other side which show evidence of burning. The vertical stab is by itself with unburnt grass around it.


You beat me to that question. Would be interesting to know which side was up originally. With the unburnt grass around it, I got the impression that the soot marks didn't get there on the ground, but rather are an effect from some kind of fire in the air - whether missile explosion or an effect of the burning engine seen on the video, I have no idea.

Please have a look on the bottom of page 10 of this thread. I posted both pictures next to each other and I am confused as well.
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:59 pm

eidvm wrote:
What would be the possibility that this was a USA/Western missile targeting a close by Iranian military site that instead accidentally hit an airliner, rather than the other way around?

Are there any possible target sites in the vicinity of where the aircraft was hit, assuming/speculating a possible missile strike?


there havent been any strikes on iranian soil so very very unlikely.
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:00 pm

OlafW wrote:
You beat me to that question. Would be interesting to know which side was up originally. With the unburnt grass around it, I got the impression that the soot marks didn't get there on the ground, but rather are an effect from some kind of fire in the air - whether missile explosion or an effect of the burning engine seen on the video, I have no idea.



Also don’t see any windows anywhere. We have that piece of fuselage at the bottom of a drainage ditch with green grass and water next to it. With signs of burning on the outside of the fuselage.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Virtual737
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*


That was the classics and jurassics, not the NG.


I know, but he said "... or any of its former variants".


Sorry, I edited my post but probably at the same time as you replied.
 
majano
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:02 pm

zeke wrote:
lowbank wrote:
Link to the article with the picture in it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... media.html


In that link you can see photos of both sides of the vertical stab. Under the “silly stories” photo there is a photo of the other side.

I don’t understand the impact damage at the tip of the vertical edge stab, I also don’t understand the amount of soot on the vertical stab, especially the other side which show evidence of burning. The vertical stab is by itself with unburnt grass around it.

Thank you for calling this as you see it.

My observation is that the impact hole appears to have been punctured from the unburnt side of the horizontal stabiliser, which is the starboard side. Could be wrong though.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:03 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
scbriml wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
It is obvious now that Iran shot that jet down. Anyone who has been in the military or involved in accident investigations know that is shrapnel damage. Most SAMs explode in proximity it’s like goose hunting with a shotgun.


See reply #459. Maybe it's not so obvious?

heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....


Refusing? On what legal basis are they required to hand them over to anyone?

TTailedTiger wrote:
A 737 comes barrelling out of the sky in a fireball in a country that had very hot military activity that day and some people are first to blame the airplane.


Who specifically blamed Boeing or the 737?

TTailedTiger wrote:
Nevermind the fact the 737NG has millions of hours of safe operation under its belt and nothing of the sort has ever happened to it or any of its former variants before.


*cough* Uncommanded rudder hard-overs. *cough*


Which accident with the 737 rudder hard-over ended up in a flying fireball? I said "nothing of the sort". You need to learn to read all of the post. This crash has no similarities with any previous 737 crash.


scbriml clearly pointed out your post "Nevermind the fact the 737NG has millions of hours of safe operation under its belt and nothing of the sort has ever happened to it or any of its former variants before" and he clearly wrote out that something that has not happened in millions hours can't happen and he is right. Like 737 rudder hard-over Easy if you just want to understand.
 
morrisond
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:05 pm

keesje wrote:
They'll know soon enough what happened. Wreckage & FDR's are in.Those FDR's can be analyzed everywhere.

Based on a video clip (real?) I would say starboard CFM uncountained failure, a fire progressing & reaching the wing tank shortly before crash.


With a heat seaking missile up the tail of the CFM causing the engine to explode and the fuel in the wing to explode as well as the most likely cause of the uncontained failure.

A normal uncontained failure could definitely puncture a tank but the odds of the fuel catching fire so quickly with all the inerting systems without explosives being involved are very low.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:05 pm

T4thH wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Initial photos show shrapnel in the fuselage.

Image


Yes, these seems to be shrapnel holes. So question is now, friendly fire by Iran guards or by US forces; I fear, these have been some over stressed Iranian guards with a manpad, who were not informed, that the civil traffic of the airport has been restarted.


Read the thread and you have the answer. Hint: post #459.
 
Starfuryt
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:07 pm

What horrible news to start the day to. May they rest in peace.
 
michi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:09 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Image
Did they really turn around the tail fin? This yellow cup-Thing (oxygen mask?) still seems to be on the same place. And why and how would turn the tail fin?


It looks like it was turned around. The yellow cup looks to be at the same place. However the grooves in the ground are different in relation to the fin.
 
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lamiska
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:12 pm

Can somebody explain how uncontained engine failure would cause ads-b transmission and pilot communication suddenly stop 2 minuters prior the impact to the ground?
Last edited by lamiska on Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:14 pm

majano wrote:
My observation is that the impact hole appears to have been punctured from the unburnt side of the horizontal stabiliser, which is the starboard side. Could be wrong though.


The direction of failure of the rudder may indicate that hole came from ground impact, also see another mark close to the base.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:19 pm

V220 wrote:
These are small stones and shadows. There is another photo from the same piece under another angle.

Image

Brilliant. Thanks for illustrating the jumping-to-conclusions issue on this forum!
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sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:21 pm

I'd be interested in knowing where the portion of the cabin windows come from. When we consider that the vertical stabaliser looks heavily torched and the right side relatively unburned, I think it could paint a picture of what happened pre impact.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

lamiska wrote:
Can somebody explain how uncontained engine failure would cause ads-b transmission and pilot communication suddenly stop 2 minuters prior the impact to the ground?


I explained this up thread a little, going back to QF32 metal from the engine went through the wing and fuselage.

We don’t know if it was an uncontained engine failure, a missile, or collision with a drone.

My thoughts as to why it is not state based attack is the amount of information that is being let out. All the photos, videos, and news which is coming out could all be suppressed by the government if they really wanted to.
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Elementalism
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

Seems way too coincidental this plane goes down the same night they are flinging missiles at US bases in Iraq. I suspect somebody thought this was a US plane on a mission over their capital and shot it down. Hard to say time will tell as it appears Iranian authorities arent going to cooperate neither. So we may never get a true cause of the crash.
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

I see a 99% likelihood of a human error and a missile sent at the plane. Not great for the Iranian government, after a badly organized funeral where 50 additional people died in a stampede, they likely mistakenly shot a civilian aircraft with 170 people on board.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

FR24 shows that the aircraft transponder was transmitting every 6 seconds, and at the time of the last transmission everything seemed fine (assuming the right turn was part of the SID). So within 6 seconds of that last transmission, something happened that made the transponder stop transmitting, but did not incapacitate the plane enough to stop it from turning back.
When looking at the map of AVHerald, it appears that between the last transponder position and the crash site the aircraft still flew approximately 30km (my estimate using G Earth). As the crash site is about 100m higher than the airport, the aircraft lost 1334m altitude over 30km, that is about 1:22 glide angle on average while making a turn, a rather shallow descent under the circumstance (and an average, of course). Does this flight profile match a bomb or missile explosion? Or perhaps, as Zeke mentioned, an uncontained engine failure that cut the power to the ADS-B transponder and penetrated the fuel tank? Note in the video that about a second or so before impact the fire flares up.
Not sure if the power being cut from the transponder also means that the black boxes would have cut out at the same time.
Last edited by Buyantukhaa on Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:23 pm

The black boxes are located in the tail so its possible that they flipped the fin in order to search for them, or for human remains.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:24 pm

I was also wondering why on earth the pilots wouldn't make contact with air traffic control?

The official "views" appear to be that it was an engine fire, but surely a plane such as these ought to be able to fly on another engine alone? Furthermore it would not create a situation where the entire plane was engulfed in fire?
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:25 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Did they really turn around the tail fin? This yellow cup-Thing (oxygen mask?) still seems to be on the same place. And why and how would turn the tail fin?

Possibly to look for victims?
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Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:27 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Viper911 wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Iran refusing to hand over the black boxes....

Oh boy.... My suspicions are leaning to this aircraft having been enacted upon by a malicious external force.


To whom exactly? Per ICAO, they are the first entity to conduct an investigation as the accident happened on their soil, so to whom they should pass the boxes exactly?

Viper911


Why are you confused? Iran doesn't have the capability to read the flight recorders. Lots of countries don't. That's why they will send them off to a country that can. It's happened many times before. Do you think Iran should be able to hold on to them forever without the data being examined? Why wouldn't you want Iran to be pressured to give them up?


Why would you assume i am confused? If anything i am the first one here that would like the records to be decoded, but you cannot assume there was a malicious force involved just because 10 hrs after the accident they don't immediately handle the FDR and CVR to a third party. I am not familiar with the Iranian investigation board, but is there an official statement or source that states they cannot decode said recorders?


Viper911
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
A normal uncontained failure could definitely puncture a tank but the odds of the fuel catching fire so quickly with all the inerting systems without explosives being involved are very low.


Fuel inerting systems do not fill the tanks up with inert gas, they just lower the oxygen levels a little, not to zero. Punching a hole in the tank adds another source of air, so the system becomes useless.
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