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MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:11 pm

TXMikeDC wrote:
DarkKnight5 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Time zones man. It doesn’t get light where I live until like 0900

That probably had less to do with your time zone and more to do with your latitude.


Actually, being on the west side of a time zone has a significant effect on sunrise and sunset times relative to being on the east side of the time zone.


Tehran is at the Eastern edge of the ETC+3 geographic time zone. Iran, however, has it's own UTC+3.5 which puts Tehran right in the middle of the time zone.

I will add thought that many time zones are shifted West and tend to skew people's perception on when sunrise and sunset are expected causing many to have a perception out of line with a "natural" time zone boundary.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:14 pm

From BBC;

"Ukraine's Tehran embassy initially blamed engine failure but later removed the statement.

It said any comment regarding the cause of Wednesday's accident prior to a commission's inquiry was not official."

The initial very early message that it was a technical fault has been retracted it seems?
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:16 pm

Interested wrote:
From BBC;

"Ukraine's Tehran embassy initially blamed engine failure but later removed the statement.

It said any comment regarding the cause of Wednesday's accident prior to a commission's inquiry was not official."

The initial very early message that it was a technical fault has been retracted it seems?


Yes. Perhaps the Ukrainians were put under pressure by Iran to blame the crash on "engine failures". But since there is no hard evidence for this, they had to retract.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:19 pm

After looking at the great circle from a North Dakota launch site to Tehran, I agree that a Minuteman collision with the unfortunate aircraft is pretty much out of bounds. That missile would have to pass within a hundred miles of Moscow and that we still have the internet and not back in the stone age means that didn’t happen.
Last edited by Adipocere on Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
loalq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:19 pm

With all due respect, but I don’t get people that complain about speculation on this forum. There wouldn’t be any discussion for at least a year (or until a final report was created) if not based on speculation. You don’t like to speculate, then just don’t read about this topic and wait for the official communications. I get it that we should refrain from turning the conversation to politics and personal attacks, but to cry about speculation is simply nonsense at this stage!
"...this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped."
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:21 pm

90% chance it was shot down.

But what are the odds of this actually being an engine problem? It was delayed an hour before takeoff for mechanical reasons. Is it actually possible that there was an engine malfunction so catastrophic that it could have brought down the plane? Or maybe it was a single engine failure which could have been handled easily but the pilot overreacted and panicked like in the Atlas crash at IAH?

There is shrapnel damage on the plane but I don't think that can automatically be attributed to a missile as tempting as that may be. A serious unconfined engine failure can cause shrapnel damage that looks identical.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:21 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
MatthewDB wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If Iran has nothing to hide, why not send the CVR and FDR to a neutral party?


Who would that be? It would have to be someone who is trusted by Iran, Ukraine, Canada, USA and France. That's a pretty tall task! Given the hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, that certainly isn't Russia.
Does Switzerland do crash investigations?


I think France could be a candidate. They've always had close relations with Iran, and are seen as more independent geopolitically.

But if Iran suspects they shot it down themselves, I don't think they would be willing to share it with anyone.


BEA in France is my guess too. Outside chance they give it to the Germans.
 
MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:22 pm

Adipocere wrote:
Some missiles are as large as the aircraft itself. Also how long would it take for a Minuteman 3 from say North Dakota to reach IKA? Would the 45 minute window from the Iranian launches to this hit account for that?


This one wins the award for the most over the top, by far.

A flight from North Dakota to Tehran overflys Russia.

So your theory is that the United States launched a nuclear capable missile, said missile overflew Russia and Russia never reacted with a counter strike. That Russia never even mentioned that it happened? That the US would risk a Russian nuclear counter strike?
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:22 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Interested wrote:
From BBC;

"Ukraine's Tehran embassy initially blamed engine failure but later removed the statement.

It said any comment regarding the cause of Wednesday's accident prior to a commission's inquiry was not official."

The initial very early message that it was a technical fault has been retracted it seems?


Yes. Perhaps the Ukrainians were put under pressure by Iran to blame the crash on "engine failures". But since there is no hard evidence for this, they had to retract.


So Iran is still claiming technical fault?

Can we confirm that?

As that's the main thing that would make you think they know it's a missile and it's their own fault I guess?

Otherwise they wouldnt be so quick to say technical fault and would keep all options open?
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:24 pm

What are the odds of an uncontained engine failure? From what I can gather online it's about one in every million flight hours, does that seem right? If so the chances of a one-in-a-million event happening within hours of an armed escalation in the region seems astronomically low.
 
MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:26 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Kadish wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
gatibosgru wrote:
With Trump talking about so many other possible targets for US attacks on Iran I'm surprised at how few people here mention a possible US missile being responsible. Everything is on the table at this time.


If someone hit the plane mistakenly for me it Is more likely to be USA rather than Iran.
Iranians should know better that the airport Is close, the plane was following a normal route after taking off....Anyway I strongly believe it Is a failure or even a terrorist attack rather than an obscure conspiracy.


there isn't any US weapons systems that could hit the target above tehran other than an sm3.


This would be a good geometry maths problem: If a ship is in the gulf, can they even see an aircraft at FL8 in Tehran? I would think it would still be below the horizon when viewed from the Persian Gulf (or Black Sea, or Gulf of Aden).
 
edu2703
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:28 pm

Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:29 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Wow Iran I sure hope this isn't a terror attack or shoot down of an miss ID aircraft.


Why would they shoot down an airplane legitimately taking off from the centre of their own country? I just can't really fathom how they would make such a gross mistake, unless their airspace had been massively breached already, in which case civilian flights would have been grounded.

As for a terror attack, that would seem like an unlikely target, unless they targeted someone aboard specifically.

I'll wait for the details, but sorting through the general chaos and hysteria is going to be tough.

In any case, I'll wait until the mainstream media reports on this. There is no confirmation of anything so far, just internet-propagated rumors.


The US suspended all flights over the Gulf hours before the plane crashed. Did the US know something in advance?


There was missile attack on an American airbase hours before the probable shootdown.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:30 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Exactly, a trigger itchy military on high alert shooting down a civilian aircraft is not unprecedented.

Russia\Soviets done it at least twice

It's 3
KAL902 - although most survived, KAL007, MH17

US done it once that I know about
Looks like Iran may have did it last night.

The French are probably responsible for IH870
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:33 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


I can confirm no reverse image hits (google, yandex, etc.) Also no embedded exif, so no way to verify. (edit for stupid autocorrect)
Last edited by osiris30 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
SEA
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:33 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Kadish wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

If someone hit the plane mistakenly for me it Is more likely to be USA rather than Iran.
Iranians should know better that the airport Is close, the plane was following a normal route after taking off....Anyway I strongly believe it Is a failure or even a terrorist attack rather than an obscure conspiracy.


there isn't any US weapons systems that could hit the target above tehran other than an sm3.


This would be a good geometry maths problem: If a ship is in the gulf, can they even see an aircraft at FL8 in Tehran? I would think it would still be below the horizon when viewed from the Persian Gulf (or Black Sea, or Gulf of Aden).


Tehran is nearly 1,000km from the Gulf.
 
LEJCargo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:34 pm

Were there restrictions in place in Iranian airspace due to military strikes? If they were, maybe that is the reason for delay.

If those restrictions were not lifted, or if not everyone was properly informed what is happening, maybe the airplane unknowingly violated the airspace. Of course a speculation, but it seems like it is a valid reason at least for the delay of the aircraft.

But anyways an 1 hour delay is very non-specific and it does not show any relation with mechanical problems in my opinion.
 
Eikie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:36 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Kadish wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

If someone hit the plane mistakenly for me it Is more likely to be USA rather than Iran.
Iranians should know better that the airport Is close, the plane was following a normal route after taking off....Anyway I strongly believe it Is a failure or even a terrorist attack rather than an obscure conspiracy.


there isn't any US weapons systems that could hit the target above tehran other than an sm3.


This would be a good geometry maths problem: If a ship is in the gulf, can they even see an aircraft at FL8 in Tehran? I would think it would still be below the horizon when viewed from the Persian Gulf (or Black Sea, or Gulf of Aden).

It is simpel enough

When height is in feet and distance in statute miles (1.6km), the formula is 1.22 x sqrt(height).

At 8.000 feet (flightlevel 80) the visible distance is 109 SM/175 KM.
Of course weather, visibility and such do play a role.
 
OlafW
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:37 pm

SumChristianus wrote:

Let's consider a few possibilities in what I hope is a "rational"way:

3. Mechanical Accident?

4. Accidental Shoot-Down


Going out on a bit of a stretch, but how about this combination of the two:
The departing plane has a mechanical failure leading to an engine fire. The military personnel at the compound are aware that their location may be high profile for retaliatory strikes. They notice an airbourne vehicle of some kind, trailed by flames, at a time where there is no plane scheduled (ATA of 0600 should be gone by that time, and it's too early for Turkish at 0620 to appear). Assuming it is some missile, they launch a heat-seeking anti-aircraft missile. Pilots are still dealing with the engine fire when it strikes, hence no communication until then and after the strike no communication is possible anymore.
What wouldn't fit with this theory:
- A foreign missile to appear suddenly going unnoticed for hundreds of miles over the country - is that realistic/possible?
- What would be the action of a cockpit crew when an engine fails on departure? Level off to work your engine fire checklist; keep climbing to get more room for reaction; or sink to limit the effect of an impact?
- The plane seemed to go down mostly intact save for some pieces you could see separating on the video. Would that fit to being hit by an anti-aircraft missile?

Not 100% convinced of my own thoughts but would like to give someone a look on it
 
WNbob
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:37 pm

It would be stupidity of major proportions if this turns out to be the fault of Iran's air defense systems.
 
mi6man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:37 pm

New to this but suspect there might be a hijack situation here.

Jetliner takes off, ISIS hijackers quickly deal with pilots (explains lack of Comms from pilot), gain control of aircraft and attempt to get it on course for Israel about two and a half hours away but of course their plans are known in advance so a ground based unit takes the plane down while it is still at a sensible height.

It would have been so much more complicated if they had to get fighters out to down it. Imagine the publicity.
 
Theseus
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:38 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.


Can this be identified as a specific missile/missile part kind ?
Also, would a missile look like this "after use" ?
 
morrisond
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:39 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Some missiles are as large as the aircraft itself. Also how long would it take for a Minuteman 3 from say North Dakota to reach IKA? Would the 45 minute window from the Iranian launches to this hit account for that?


This one wins the award for the most over the top, by far.

A flight from North Dakota to Tehran overflys Russia.

So your theory is that the United States launched a nuclear capable missile, said missile overflew Russia and Russia never reacted with a counter strike. That Russia never even mentioned that it happened? That the US would risk a Russian nuclear counter strike?


The ICBM would also have to have an Heat Seeker Missile System installed remove the nuclear warhead and put a conventional one on.

It wasn't an ICBM.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:39 pm

But it's true to say Tehran would be on major standby for any retaliation attacks they've just made on US bases
 
MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:41 pm

litz wrote:
In Moscow? Forgetting for a minute the Russians, the Chinese, and every NATO country who'd notice such a launch immediately due to satellite monitoring ... I'm not sure you'd be able to launch a missile without anyone in the US noticing ... it's a rocket when it's going up ... big, loud, leaves a very noticeable trail behind it, visible for miles, if not tens or hundreds of miles, around.


Yeah, I didn't think about the on the ground in the US point of view either! Those that live near the silos know that the sight of a missle going up means that they have minutes left to live. The most likely explanation is that the missile was launched as a counter strike. Even if it wasn't a counter strike, it will be answered soon, and there is no way you're going to get far enough away in time. Every form of social media would be filled with "I love you and goodby" type messages.
 
Kadish
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:45 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Kadish wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

If someone hit the plane mistakenly for me it Is more likely to be USA rather than Iran.
Iranians should know better that the airport Is close, the plane was following a normal route after taking off....Anyway I strongly believe it Is a failure or even a terrorist attack rather than an obscure conspiracy.


there isn't any US weapons systems that could hit the target above tehran other than an sm3.


This would be a good geometry maths problem: If a ship is in the gulf, can they even see an aircraft at FL8 in Tehran? I would think it would still be below the horizon when viewed from the Persian Gulf (or Black Sea, or Gulf of Aden).


You are probably right...but im positive there are several ways beside that one to shoot down a plane...drone,...
 
dunappa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:45 pm

Has anyone heard anything about why the flight was delayed for roughly an hour? Inbound flight arrived at 12:57am.
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:52 pm

Ukraine International said the aircraft had maintenance on Jan 6th.

Although I am unsure of what maintenance was done on the aircraft, could it possibly be engine related maintenance that was then incorrectly reinstalled / installed on the aircraft and this be a factor for the crash?
 
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:54 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
90% chance it was shot down.

But what are the odds of this actually being an engine problem? It was delayed an hour before takeoff for mechanical reasons. Is it actually possible that there was an engine malfunction so catastrophic that it could have brought down the plane? Or maybe it was a single engine failure which could have been handled easily but the pilot overreacted and panicked like in the Atlas crash at IAH?

There is shrapnel damage on the plane but I don't think that can automatically be attributed to a missile as tempting as that may be. A serious unconfined engine failure can cause shrapnel damage that looks identical.


On what grounds? Don't say something that you are not sure of.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:55 pm

If that supposed missile head photo is out now, surely news outlets will pick up on it and try to run with it one way or another.

And if one person has a picture of it, many others will.
 
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:55 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Why would they shoot down an airplane legitimately taking off from the centre of their own country? I just can't really fathom how they would make such a gross mistake, unless their airspace had been massively breached already, in which case civilian flights would have been grounded.

As for a terror attack, that would seem like an unlikely target, unless they targeted someone aboard specifically.

I'll wait for the details, but sorting through the general chaos and hysteria is going to be tough.

In any case, I'll wait until the mainstream media reports on this. There is no confirmation of anything so far, just internet-propagated rumors.


The US suspended all flights over the Gulf hours before the plane crashed. Did the US know something in advance?


There was missile attack on an American airbase hours before the probable shootdown.


Missile attack was in Iraq. Nothing to do with Tehran which is 1000km away!!
 
Elementalism
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:56 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Some missiles are as large as the aircraft itself. Also how long would it take for a Minuteman 3 from say North Dakota to reach IKA? Would the 45 minute window from the Iranian launches to this hit account for that?


This one wins the award for the most over the top, by far.

A flight from North Dakota to Tehran overflys Russia.

So your theory is that the United States launched a nuclear capable missile, said missile overflew Russia and Russia never reacted with a counter strike. That Russia never even mentioned that it happened? That the US would risk a Russian nuclear counter strike?


Not only that but hits a moving 737 midair? The odds of that are astronomical.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:59 pm

dara88 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

The US suspended all flights over the Gulf hours before the plane crashed. Did the US know something in advance?


There was missile attack on an American airbase hours before the probable shootdown.


Missile attack was in Iraq. Nothing to do with Tehran which is 1000km away!!


Iran launched it. So obviously the US would ban its flights from overflying Iraq and Iran.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
edu2703
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:59 pm

Theseus wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.


Can this be identified as a specific missile/missile part kind ?
Also, would a missile look like this ''after use" ?


The wreckage appears to be from an SA-15 Gauntlet missile and it looks like it should look like this after use. The same source posted an image of wreckage from another attack using this missile. Very similar to the alleged image from the crash site.

Image
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:59 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


Looks like the nosecone from an SA-15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Image
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:01 pm

WNbob wrote:
It would be stupidity of major proportions if this turns out to be the fault of Iran's air defense systems.


And yet someone proposed the US may have accidentally shot the airliner down... and yet saw no one suggested the preposterousness of that.

The photo is very interesting...

So far Iran has killed no Americans or Iraqis, but 50 people in a stampede at Soleimani's funeral and 180 Ukranians by shooting down a plane. I would tend to believe that such mishaps or intentional acts are not commonplace with the US but certainly so with Iran.

Al Hadath News agency from Jordan reports the Ukrainian Boeing 737 plane carrying 180 passengers may have been shot down accidentally by an Iranian missile.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:01 pm

Was this the first flight to takeoff from IKA after the Iraq strike and the missile operators got caught off guard not expecting a plane so soon? Because that would corroborate an accidental hit.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
hivue
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:01 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.


Bizarre. Going to the trouble to check if this is an old photo repurposed and wondering about the actual site but not a hint of interest in whether this is even a SAM part.

EDIT: Preparing this post and submitting while the SA-15 pictures were being posted, so I stand corrected. Checking for a repurposed image first was the best idea.
Last edited by hivue on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:02 pm

xwb777 wrote:
The missiles were shot at 1:45 LT and the plane departed at 05:15 am.


What is the source that the missiles were shot at 1:45 LT?

Also, the plane did not depart at 5:15am LT. That was the scheduled time. It actually took off at 6:12am LT.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 2#23732569

Image
 
IADCA
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:03 pm

dara88 wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

The US suspended all flights over the Gulf hours before the plane crashed. Did the US know something in advance?


There was missile attack on an American airbase hours before the probable shootdown.


Missile attack was in Iraq. Nothing to do with Tehran which is 1000km away!!


Missile attack was in Iraq, but the missiles were launched by Iran. The capital of Iran is Tehran. That makes the airspace near Tehran (and between it and the US bases in the Gulf Region) rather dangerous, due to potential retaliation in Tehran and possible further attacks in the Gulf region, doesn't it? "Nothing to do with" is a pretty big stretch.
 
Alfons
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:04 pm

The American military for sure already knows the cause. Many airplanes went down in places where a good radar coverage was missing, or an active or recorded coverage. But the place around Iran, Irak.... all rocket starts are registered the second one goes up. Even Israel with their radars and satellites have 24/7 monitoring of launched missiles (they have to). So my question is, when will the american government start to drip indirect information out to the public, which recursively can point out that they have all data. For the moment they are very, very quiet.
Last edited by Alfons on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sonicruiser
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Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:06 pm

Looks like Qatar was the last to takeoff before PS752

Image
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8846
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:06 pm

WNbob wrote:
It would be stupidity of major proportions if this turns out to be the fault of Iran's air defense systems.

I think it’s the only plausible explanation
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
speedbird52
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Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:30 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:07 pm

NonTechAvLover wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I met two lovely otherwise intelligent American women on a train in Morocco who seemed to think that Iran was run by the Taliban


Not saying this necessarily happened, but one wonders whether the reality of the first attribute may have caused the imagination of the second.

Sorry can you elaborate? I did not quite understand what you meant here
 
arfbool
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:09 pm

Departures: Imam Khomeini Int'l Airport (Tehran) [OIIE]
Ident Tail Type Destination Departure Estimated Arrival Time Arrival
IRM120 EP-MNV A343 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 11:40AM +0330 Wed 02:01PM +03 Wed 02:01PM +03
IRM63 EP-MMF A310 Dubai Int'l (DXB / OMDB) Wed 11:25AM +0330 Wed 01:34PM +04 Wed 01:34PM +04
UAE972 A6-EGF B77W Dubai Int'l (DXB / OMDB) Wed 11:18AM +0330 Wed 01:26PM +04 Wed 01:26PM +04
IRA715 EP-IBK A306 Ankara Esenboğa Havalimanı Int'l (ESB / LTAC) Wed 09:55AM +0330 Wed 11:51AM +03 Wed 11:51AM +03
IRM116 EP-MMA A343 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 09:07AM +0330 Wed 11:26AM +03 Wed 11:26AM +03
IRA713 EP-IJB A330 Stockholm-Arlanda (ARN / ESSA) Wed 08:41AM +0330 Wed 11:26AM CET 11:26AM CET (?)
THY879 TC-LOG A333 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 08:23AM +0330 Wed 10:51AM +03 Wed 10:51AM +03
IRM61 EP-MME A343 Dubai Int'l (DXB / OMDB) Wed 08:19AM +0330 Wed 10:26AM +04 Wed 10:26AM +04
IRA717 EP-IBD A306 Vienna Int'l (Schwechat) (VIE / LOWW) Wed 07:53AM +0330 Wed 09:26AM CET Wed 09:26AM CET
IRA721 EP-IJA A330 Frankfurt Int'l (FRA / EDDF) Wed 07:49AM +0330 Wed 10:03AM CET Wed 10:03AM CET
AUI752 UR-PSR B738 Boryspil Int'l (KBP / UKBB) Wed 06:12AM +0330 Wed 07:50AM EET Wed 07:50AM EET
QTR8408 A7-BFP B772 Hong Kong Int'l (HKG / VHHH) Wed 05:40AM +0330 Wed 05:05PM HKT Wed 05:05PM HKT
KKK1185 TC-AGG A330 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 05:17AM +0330 Wed 07:41AM +03 Wed 07:41AM +03
THY873 TC-JTF A321 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 05:07AM +0330 Wed 07:29AM +03 Wed 07:29AM +03
QTR491 A7-AEB A320 Hamad Int'l (DOH / OTHH) Wed 05:01AM +0330 Wed 06:15AM +03 Wed 06:15AM +03
AFL513 VP-BME A320 Sheremetyevo Int'l (SVO / UUEE) Wed 04:31AM +0330 Wed 07:35AM MSK Wed 07:35AM MSK
AUA872 OE-LBU A320 Vienna Int'l (Schwechat) (VIE / LOWW) Wed 04:23AM +0330 Wed 05:58AM CET Wed 05:58AM CET
THY875 TC-JTJ A321 Istanbul Airport (IST / LTFM) Wed 03:35AM +0330 Wed 06:00AM +03 Wed 06:00AM +03
DLH601 D-AIKB A333 Frankfurt Int'l (FRA / EDDF) Wed 02:43AM +0330 Wed 05:05AM CET Wed 05:05AM CET
AHY9006 VP-BRV E190 Heydar Aliyev Int'l (GYD / UBBB)Wed 01:37AM +0330 Wed 03:07AM +04 Wed 03:07AM +04
 
hamiltondaniel
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2010 1:40 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:12 pm

While the provenance of the SA-15 nosecone photo is still unknown, it's worth noting the SA-15 is the sort of system most likely to be involved in these accidental shootdown scenarios. Unlike larger, more permanent systems which are heavily tied into C3 networks, SA-15s are meant to be mobile, quick-reacting systems deployed individually or in small groups of 3-4. Their operators have a lot more flexibility on when and where to fire. It's hard to imagine an integrated air defense battery getting itchy and launching at a random airliner; in the SA-15, all it takes is one operator to get spooked and make a bad call.

Also worth noting that Wikipedia says Iran has 29 SA-15s.
Last edited by hamiltondaniel on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:13 pm

Vio wrote:
My guess would be that a lot of the Canadian nationals on this flight were of Iranian descent. Like myself, a lot of Canadians have dual citizenship. Ukraine International also flies to Toronto Pearson, with their 767s and 777s. I would imagine they flew from Toronto to Kiev and onto Tehran.


Yes. I saw an article that said the Iranian news reported the citizenship breakdown something like 130 Iranian citizens on board and barely any Canadians. Which would indicate that they had dual passports/citizenship.

BTW, does anyone have a link to an article that has the citizenship numbers from the Iranian sources? I can't find it anymore.
 
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Jouhou
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:14 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Was this the first flight to takeoff from IKA after the Iraq strike and the missile operators got caught off guard not expecting a plane so soon? Because that would corroborate an accidental hit.



I think that's why people are leaning into the shoot-down idea with limited evidence so fast, including myself.

However, unlike MH17, this situation if it happened like this is a far more understandable mistake. Airlines need to come up with solid plans of their aircraft are stuck in the middle of an escalating conflict. IE flying only during daylight in clear conditions so air defenses on edge can get a clear visual ID on potential airborne threats.
情報
 
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sergegva
Posts: 256
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:20 pm

flybucky wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
The missiles were shot at 1:45 LT and the plane departed at 05:15 am.


What is the source that the missiles were shot at 1:45 LT?



Irak military through AFP some time ago already:
https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/iran-fir ... c-1ni65v27
 
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PixelFlight
Posts: 1026
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:21 pm

MatthewDB wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If Iran has nothing to hide, why not send the CVR and FDR to a neutral party?


Who would that be? It would have to be someone who is trusted by Iran, Ukraine, Canada, USA and France. That's a pretty tall task! Given the hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, that certainly isn't Russia.
Does Switzerland do crash investigations?

Yes, Switzerland do crash investigations https://www.sust.admin.ch/en/stsb-homepage/ but only inside Switzerland as far as I know.
Switzerland represents the interests of the United States in the Iranian capital Tehran. Some diplomatic messages are known to pass between USA and Iran via Switzerland, notably this last one: "Swiss deliver U.S. message to Iran over Soleimani killing" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq ... SKBN1Z21AC
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:

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