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Starfuryt
Posts: 198
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:58 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:23 pm

Jouhou wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Was this the first flight to takeoff from IKA after the Iraq strike and the missile operators got caught off guard not expecting a plane so soon? Because that would corroborate an accidental hit.



I think that's why people are leaning into the shoot-down idea with limited evidence so fast, including myself.

However, unlike MH17, this situation if it happened like this is a far more understandable mistake. Airlines need to come up with solid plans of their aircraft are stuck in the middle of an escalating conflict. IE flying only during daylight in clear conditions so air defenses on edge can get a clear visual ID on potential airborne threats.


The unfortunate reality given everything that we do know so far, however limited, points to the obvious conclusion. The sudden loss of ADS-B signal combined with the being on fire on the way down points to something very catastrophic. Lets just say that an outside event seems to be very likely at this point until we know more, assuming we ever do.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:24 pm

flybucky wrote:
I will caution that the FR24 non-granular plots use sparse data points that are smoothed out, which can be extremely misleading because it looks very smooth, which is usually accurate for a normal flight. But for a catastrophic incident, the granular data can paint a very different picture. Hopefully FR24 will release the granular data as they often do for major incidents: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/cate ... -incident/


FR24 has released the granular ADS-B data, which has data points every few seconds instead of 1 or 2 per minute.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukra ... om-tehran/

Everything looks pretty smooth through the last data point, then abruptly no more data.

2020-01-08 02:44:57 UTC (06:14:57 local time)
7925 ft pressure alt
275 kts ground speed
312 heading
35.49046, 50.95299 lat/long
 
DoctorVenkman
Posts: 243
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:26 pm

What sort of mechanical failure could cause a midair explosion like that? The only thing I can think of is an uncontained engine failure piercing and igniting the fuel tanks. Is there any other known issue that could have caused this?
 
IADCA
Posts: 2246
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:26 pm

Jouhou wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Was this the first flight to takeoff from IKA after the Iraq strike and the missile operators got caught off guard not expecting a plane so soon? Because that would corroborate an accidental hit.



I think that's why people are leaning into the shoot-down idea with limited evidence so fast, including myself.

However, unlike MH17, this situation if it happened like this is a far more understandable mistake. Airlines need to come up with solid plans of their aircraft are stuck in the middle of an escalating conflict. IE flying only during daylight in clear conditions so air defenses on edge can get a clear visual ID on potential airborne threats.


The victims of IR655 would love the idea of daylight flights somehow fixing the problem of trigger-happy people with missiles. You're going to have trouble persuading me that someone shooting down a commercial airliner at 8k feet in a common departure flightpath from a major international airport is anything other than a trigger-happy idiot, regardless of darkness.

DoctorVenkman wrote:
What sort of mechanical failure could cause a midair explosion like that? The only thing I can think of is an uncontained engine failure piercing and igniting the fuel tanks. Is there any other known issue that could have caused this?


Fuel tank explosions could have other causes (TW800, for example, albeit not something very likely on a 737NG). Could also be an alternate non-mechanical cause, such as dangerous cargo exploding.
Last edited by IADCA on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:27 pm

edu2703 wrote:
The wreckage appears to be from an SA-15 Gauntlet missile and it looks like it should look like this after use. The same source posted an image of wreckage from another attack using this missile. Very similar to the alleged image from the crash site.

Image


If that was not faked, I lean further towards the aircraft being shot down. I think there was a terrible mistake made.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:28 pm

Jouhou wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Was this the first flight to takeoff from IKA after the Iraq strike and the missile operators got caught off guard not expecting a plane so soon? Because that would corroborate an accidental hit.



I think that's why people are leaning into the shoot-down idea with limited evidence so fast, including myself.

However, unlike MH17, this situation if it happened like this is a far more understandable mistake. Airlines need to come up with solid plans of their aircraft are stuck in the middle of an escalating conflict. IE flying only during daylight in clear conditions so air defenses on edge can get a clear visual ID on potential airborne threats.


I thought the same thing but the shootdown theory seems less likely now because at least 6 planes (Turkish, Austrian, Pegasus, Aeroflot, Turkish, Qatar) took off after the strike and before the shootdown in a span of roughly 3hrs30min.

So this means that at least 6 planes flew over the exact same area without incident. They would definitely have been able to distinguish between civilian and military traffic.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
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remcor
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:31 pm

Ops Group, a service/site for commercial pilots wrote a piece saying that pilots should assume that it was shot down for risk assessment purposes. It gives as evidence the photos of the plane with what appear to be shrapnel holes:

https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-i ... shot-down/
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:37 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


Looks like the nosecone from an SA-15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Image


It's with close to 100% certainty a 9M330 missile from the SA-15 yes. So if the image is authentic then the cause is quite clear.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:41 pm

remcor wrote:
Ops Group, a service/site for commercial pilots wrote a piece saying that pilots should assume that it was shot down for risk assessment purposes. It gives as evidence the photos of the plane with what appear to be shrapnel holes:

https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-i ... shot-down/

These guys are pointing out "shrapnel holes" with the image that was proven to be just rocks and their shadows
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:46 pm

So evidence looking like a missile. Sickening. No doubt another group of bandits will get away with mass murder, just like MH17.
 
robertm46
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:49 pm

Fox news just reported on TV that the jet was downed due to an "overheated" engine. Go figure!! Someone must have tower/departure tapes.
 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:49 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


As the point of transponder data loss (the place where a missile would have hit most likely) and the crash site is roughly 10NM apart, finding a missile piece at the crash site (which is suggested by the person who did the picture) would be highly improbable.

Also the warhead of a SA-15 works differently than the BUK warhead that downed MH17. The SA-15 warhead does not produce shrapnel, but a ring of metal that is supposed to cut through the target.

Something does not fit together.


Edited for clarification.
Last edited by michi on Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Starfuryt
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:49 pm

All we can say from the picture is that it's a missile tip lying in a ditch...that's about the extent of the facts there.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:50 pm

SimonL wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


Looks like the nosecone from an SA-15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Image


It's with close to 100% certainty a 9M330 missile from the SA-15 yes. So if the image is authentic then the cause is quite clear.


Yes. From a Tor-M1.

Iran has 29 Tor-M1 SAM systems.

We just need verification of the picture. But Iranian officials have most likely removed the missile debris by now.
 
T4thH
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:50 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


OK, I was able to identify the rocket type. This is the head of a 9M330 rocket (and not of an update version 9M331). It can be identified by the rudders, these are different in the 9M331 version. It is used on TOR systems.
Does someone have a picture of the Iranian TOR systems and pictures of the rockets, Iran is using on it? It will be interesting to see, if they have got the 9M330 or the 9M331 in 2005 from Russia. On this way it will be possible to identify, if the picture is a fake or can be true.
Last edited by T4thH on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:50 pm

It would be nice if whomever took that photo took a wider angle one to contemporaneously place it somewhere near the crash site.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:54 pm

robertm46 wrote:
Fox news just reported on TV that the jet was downed due to an "overheated" engine. Go figure!! Someone must have tower/departure tapes.


Not jumping to conclusions. But insane coincidence if true.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
TimOsman
Posts: 1
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:55 pm

Sabotage. This crash occurred a span of 66 weeks, 6 days after the previous 737-800 crash (fortunately almost all survived that incident). Reminds me of National Airlines Flight 102 (U2RA944L) in Parwan, Afghanistan in 2013:
'Approximately 9 seconds after the crew called to rotate the airplane, the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) stopped recording, and approximately 3 seconds later the flight data recorder (FDR) stopped recording.'
U2RA944L's first flight was 6666 days before the death of Osama bin Laden
 
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:56 pm

Don't you guys think that if the plane was hit by a missile (by mistake or any other reasons), would the Iranian officials let anyone take any pictures from the crash site? Wouldn't they clear the evidence first? They are not stupid you know! I have friends who were walking and taking different photos inside the crash site without any issues for several hours!
 
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enilria
Posts: 10410
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:57 pm

michi wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


As the point of transponder data loss (the place where a missile would have hit most likely) and the crash site is roughly 10NM apart, finding a missile piece at the crash site (which is suggested by the person who did the picture) would be highly improbable.

Also the warhead of a SA-15 works differently than the BUK warhead that downed MH17. The SA-15 warhead does not produce shrapnel, but a ring of metal that is supposed to cut through the target.

Something does not fit together.


Edited for clarification.

I posted this upthread, but I propose that the ADS-B was scrambled/spoofed/hacked purposefully causing the Iranian missile defense to recognize it as a hostile. The reason the crash site is 14km (I measured the GPS coordinates from the last ADS-B to the crash site) is that was the period potentially when the ADS-B signal was being altered and the missile launched and was en route.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ay-hackers
 
arfbool
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:58 pm

flybucky wrote:
flybucky wrote:
I will caution that the FR24 non-granular plots use sparse data points that are smoothed out, which can be extremely misleading because it looks very smooth, which is usually accurate for a normal flight. But for a catastrophic incident, the granular data can paint a very different picture. Hopefully FR24 will release the granular data as they often do for major incidents: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/cate ... -incident/


FR24 has released the granular ADS-B data, which has data points every few seconds instead of 1 or 2 per minute.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukra ... om-tehran/

Everything looks pretty smooth through the last data point, then abruptly no more data.

2020-01-08 02:44:57 UTC (06:14:57 local time)
7925 ft pressure alt
275 kts ground speed
312 heading
35.49046, 50.95299 lat/long


Thanks. I plotted out the data:

Image
 
edu2703
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:00 pm

Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
 
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Raiden
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:00 pm

"Crash"?

Looks more like Soleimani's replacement may have thought for a split second that it was Trump's B-52


Image
Last edited by Raiden on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:00 pm

With the video and now this data, it suggestion a sudden explosion of some sort IMO. Be it by engine failure, missile or whatever.
 
michi
Posts: 266
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:03 pm

enilria wrote:
I posted this upthread, but I propose that the ADS-B was scrambled/spoofed/hacked purposefully causing the Iranian missile defense to recognize it as a hostile. The reason the crash site is 14km (I measured the GPS coordinates from the last ADS-B to the crash site) is that was the period potentially when the ADS-B signal was being altered and the missile launched and was en route.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ay-hackers


The crash site is nowhere near any SID out of IKA. The debris field is oriented around a 160° track. This indicates a return to the airport. While it remains a possibility that some GPS interference was present, the aircraft must have somehow turned off track for some unknown reason.
 
Draken21fx
Posts: 246
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:04 pm

michi wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


As the point of transponder data loss (the place where a missile would have hit most likely) and the crash site is roughly 10NM apart, finding a missile piece at the crash site (which is suggested by the person who did the picture) would be highly improbable.

Also the warhead of a SA-15 works differently than the BUK warhead that downed MH17. The SA-15 warhead does not produce shrapnel, but a ring of metal that is supposed to cut through the target.

Something does not fit together.


Edited for clarification.


In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.

The person behind the twitter account lives in California (if his profile and the TV news pics are to be trusted), the account was opened only recently and from a quick search I can find no trace of him on social media.

I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.
 
morrisond
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:04 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


It could easily have been a bomb triggered to go off at certain altitude.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1483
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:04 pm

enilria wrote:
michi wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


As the point of transponder data loss (the place where a missile would have hit most likely) and the crash site is roughly 10NM apart, finding a missile piece at the crash site (which is suggested by the person who did the picture) would be highly improbable.

Also the warhead of a SA-15 works differently than the BUK warhead that downed MH17. The SA-15 warhead does not produce shrapnel, but a ring of metal that is supposed to cut through the target.

Something does not fit together.


Edited for clarification.

I posted this upthread, but I propose that the ADS-B was scrambled/spoofed/hacked purposefully causing the Iranian missile defense to recognize it as a hostile. The reason the crash site is 14km (I measured the GPS coordinates from the last ADS-B to the crash site) is that was the period potentially when the ADS-B signal was being altered and the missile launched and was en route.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ay-hackers


Why would a hostile entity be broadcasting ADS-B? And that article is from over 8 years ago.
 
T4thH
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:05 pm

T4thH wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


OK, I was able to identify the rocket type. This is the head of a 9M330 rocket (and not of an update version 9M331). It can be identified by the rudders, these are different in the 9M331 version. It is used on TOR systems.
Does someone have a picture of the Iranian TOR systems and pictures of the rockets, Iran is using on it? It will be interesting to see, if they have got the 9M330 or the 9M331 in 2005 from Russia. On this way it will be possible to identify, if the picture is a fake or can be true.


OK, it is stupid to link myself but....

According following source, 1200 9M331 have been delivered to Iran. http://survincity.com/2012/10/iran-s-air-defense/
29 PU «Tor-M1» (17 «Tor-M1» on crawlers and 12 complexes in the towed version «Tor-M1T», delivered to them in 1200 9M331 missiles);


The head of the rocket is a 9M330, as already identified. One of both must be wrong, either the statement in the link regarding delivery of 1200 9M331 (and not 9M330) or the picture. It is likely, the picture is a fake or have been taken somewhere else in the world and has nothing to do with Iran and the crashed B737.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:06 pm

If it really was a technical fault, now it makes sense why Iran could so quickly claim that it was. Because they would've known they didn't shoot it.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1483
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:06 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


If this ends up just being an accident, it has to go down as one of the most zany coincidences in aviation history. An airliner bursts into flames over a missile launch site mere hours after missiles were launched.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:07 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
If it really was a technical fault, now it makes sense why Iran could so quickly claim that it was. Because they would've known they didn't shoot it.


Honestly that means nothing. It's not like they'd immediately admit they did shoot it since they know they did.
 
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Raiden
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:08 pm

Ukraine still refuses to rule out that their airliner was shot down

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... oeing-737/
 
michi
Posts: 266
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:08 pm

Draken21fx wrote:
In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.


Yup.. But this basic knowledge isn't around everywhere :banghead: A picture posted on the net has to be the truth!


Draken21fx wrote:
I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.


:bigthumbsup:
 
SimonL
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:09 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


If this ends up just being an accident, it has to go down as one of the most zany coincidences in aviation history. An airliner bursts into flames over a missile launch site mere hours after missiles were launched.


Indeed. But thats why its important to stay critical and open minded.
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:09 pm

michi wrote:
enilria wrote:
I posted this upthread, but I propose that the ADS-B was scrambled/spoofed/hacked purposefully causing the Iranian missile defense to recognize it as a hostile. The reason the crash site is 14km (I measured the GPS coordinates from the last ADS-B to the crash site) is that was the period potentially when the ADS-B signal was being altered and the missile launched and was en route.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ay-hackers


The crash site is nowhere near any SID out of IKA. The debris field is oriented around a 160° track. This indicates a return to the airport. While it remains a possibility that some GPS interference was present, the aircraft must have somehow turned off track for some unknown reason.

Would they have gotten a TCAS or other type of alert about a missile? Or would they have known their transponder was being messed with? Either would have led to emergency procedures.

I think it is very very very unlikely the plane was not hit by a missile. The only question is *why* was it hit by a missile and I think I have a very good theory on that. To assume anything else other than a missile (motive aside) flies in the face of logic, and Occam's Razor. Frankly, in my mind the conspiracy theory is that the plane was NOT hit by a missile as that is the much less likely scenario.
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:12 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


If this ends up just being an accident, it has to go down as one of the most zany coincidences in aviation history. An airliner bursts into flames over a missile launch site mere hours after missiles were launched.

Right up there with MH370 and MH17 losing 2 of a fleet of 12 777s to seemingly unrelated crashes in a year... with a statistical likelihood of 1 in a ~trillion.
 
michi
Posts: 266
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:12 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
If this ends up just being an accident, it has to go down as one of the most zany coincidences in aviation history. An airliner bursts into flames over a missile launch site mere hours after missiles were launched.


Do you know what kind of missile launch site (e.g. ICBM, SAM) the aircraft flew over? There are loads of missile types with dedicated launch sites.
Do you know if it is a launch site or if it is only a storage site? Production site maybe?

As long as this is not known, the information "missile launch site" is kind of immature.



Edit: Spelling
Last edited by michi on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:13 pm

Is it possible Western intel was actively monitoring Iranian missile sites and determined that nothing was fired around the time of the crash? Because that's the only way I can think western intel could come to that conclusion without having access to the crash.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
majano
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:13 pm

enilria wrote:
michi wrote:
enilria wrote:
I posted this upthread, but I propose that the ADS-B was scrambled/spoofed/hacked purposefully causing the Iranian missile defense to recognize it as a hostile. The reason the crash site is 14km (I measured the GPS coordinates from the last ADS-B to the crash site) is that was the period potentially when the ADS-B signal was being altered and the missile launched and was en route.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ay-hackers


The crash site is nowhere near any SID out of IKA. The debris field is oriented around a 160° track. This indicates a return to the airport. While it remains a possibility that some GPS interference was present, the aircraft must have somehow turned off track for some unknown reason.

Would they have gotten a TCAS or other type of alert about a missile? Or would they have known their transponder was being messed with? Either would have led to emergency procedures.

I think it is very very very unlikely the plane was not hit by a missile. The only question is *why* was it hit by a missile and I think I have a very good theory on that. To assume anything else other than a missile (motive aside) flies in the face of logic, and Occam's Razor. Frankly, in my mind the conspiracy theory is that the plane was NOT hit by a missile as that is the much less likely scenario.

I like your posts on airline operations a great deal. I think you are far better than this...
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:13 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


If this ends up just being an accident, it has to go down as one of the most zany coincidences in aviation history. An airliner bursts into flames over a missile launch site mere hours after missiles were launched.

Right up there with MH370 and MH17 losing 2 of a fleet of 12 777s to seemingly unrelated crashes in a year... with a statistical likelihood of 1 in a ~trillion.
 
Starfuryt
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:15 pm

TCAS works using ADS-B, it's not an active monitoring radar so they would've had no indication of anything heading their way. Realistically at 8000 feet flying at over mach 2 it would've taken the missile only a handful of seconds to reach the target.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:16 pm

Alfons wrote:
The American military for sure already knows the cause. Many airplanes went down in places where a good radar coverage was missing, or an active or recorded coverage. But the place around Iran, Irak.... all rocket starts are registered the second one goes up. Even Israel with their radars and satellites have 24/7 monitoring of launched missiles (they have to). So my question is, when will the american government start to drip indirect information out to the public, which recursively can point out that they have all data. For the moment they are very, very quiet.



I did assume US would know if a missile had been fired by Iran or not

And so what game of poker is now going on like you say

The fact Iran aren't accusing anybody else of doing anything wrong is very telling
 
michi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:17 pm

enilria wrote:
Would they have gotten a TCAS or other type of alert about a missile? Or would they have known their transponder was being messed with? Either would have led to emergency procedures.


No missile warning in civil aircraft.

Transponder failure would not have led to emergency procedures. Transponder failures are the starting point of a nice conversation with ATC. Eg.: They tend to ask if the transponder is switched on.

As I have experienced GPS spoofing by myself flying in various regions of the world I can assure you that this is almost a no brainer for the pilots. Definitely nothing triggering emergency procedures or flying back to an airport without communicating that turn back to ATC.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:18 pm

I think people have a much more Hollywood idea of how radar displays look. It's not like air defense radars are nice and pretty like some flight tracking website. Primary radar is much messier than what we see on FR24. Not saying it was shot down but you can have a series of circumstances that can make a high alert solider mistake an airliner as a threat.

Of course no air defense units would shoot an obvious airliner obviously transiting out of Tehran's airport

majano wrote:
enilria wrote:
michi wrote:

The crash site is nowhere near any SID out of IKA. The debris field is oriented around a 160° track. This indicates a return to the airport. While it remains a possibility that some GPS interference was present, the aircraft must have somehow turned off track for some unknown reason.

Would they have gotten a TCAS or other type of alert about a missile? Or would they have known their transponder was being messed with? Either would have led to emergency procedures.

I think it is very very very unlikely the plane was not hit by a missile. The only question is *why* was it hit by a missile and I think I have a very good theory on that. To assume anything else other than a missile (motive aside) flies in the face of logic, and Occam's Razor. Frankly, in my mind the conspiracy theory is that the plane was NOT hit by a missile as that is the much less likely scenario.

I like your posts on airline operations a great deal. I think you are far better than this...

I agree... :|
 
michi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:18 pm

Please delete... Fingertrouble..
Last edited by michi on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:18 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
NonTechAvLover wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I met two lovely otherwise intelligent American women on a train in Morocco who seemed to think that Iran was run by the Taliban


Not saying this necessarily happened, but one wonders whether the reality of the first attribute may have caused the imagination of the second.

Sorry can you elaborate? I did not quite understand what you meant here


Sorry, it was just a joke suggesting that the loveliness may have clouded your judgment to perceive intelligence. In any event, I do not claim to possess a universally accepted definition of intelligence (if there is one), but I met a lot of people who were not very informed, especially about parts of the world that are remote to them, but I thought were intelligent nonetheless (though Taliban ruling Iran is a bit rich).

I will go off topic here, but I think this has to be said just to remind ourselves what we may forget in the midst of distressing events or heated discussions. The Persian Empire (to which Iranians claim to be the heirs) was a superpower of its time (starting about 2,500 years ago) fighting the Greeks for supremacy over the then known world and while they eventually lost that fight to Alexander the Great, that land has been a center of culture and civilization for a very long time. I am sure there are many other examples, but if memory serves it was their famous 12th century poet Omar Khayyam, who was also an astronomer and mathematician, who was credited with being the first to solve a quadratic equation. The empires of present-day Iran and its peoples have made significant contributions to the world culture in many areas such as the law, literature, architecture, mathematics etc. etc. It is very sad to see the current situation of the country and the suffering of its people in recent history. Its current political predicament may have been the cause of a terrible aviation tragedy, but the consequences of that predicament go a lot wider and deeper than today's crash. I am staying away purposefully from discussing how much of that situation is their own doing and how much belongs to others and just commenting on the sadness of the situation. I hope the seemingly mild reaction from the WH today to a seemingly measured attack will be the beginning of a stop to the escalation of hostilities in a region that suffered more than its fair share of aggression and human suffering in recent decades and, maybe even the beginning of some sort of a process for the resolution of the underlying conflicts. I am not holding my breath for it, but I want to at least be able to hope.

Rgds,
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:19 pm

majano wrote:
enilria wrote:
michi wrote:

The crash site is nowhere near any SID out of IKA. The debris field is oriented around a 160° track. This indicates a return to the airport. While it remains a possibility that some GPS interference was present, the aircraft must have somehow turned off track for some unknown reason.

Would they have gotten a TCAS or other type of alert about a missile? Or would they have known their transponder was being messed with? Either would have led to emergency procedures.

I think it is very very very unlikely the plane was not hit by a missile. The only question is *why* was it hit by a missile and I think I have a very good theory on that. To assume anything else other than a missile (motive aside) flies in the face of logic, and Occam's Razor. Frankly, in my mind the conspiracy theory is that the plane was NOT hit by a missile as that is the much less likely scenario.

I like your posts on airline operations a great deal. I think you are far better than this...

I appreciate that very much. I am someone who works a lot with statistics. You see that on this site. I know well that extreme coincidences are nearly statistically impossible. It's not unlike if AS adds a route from a Delta hub and a week later DL adds a route or two or three from SEA. People say "they had planned to do that, just a coincidence". It's not a coincidence.

It is fact that ADS-B is easily hacked. It just comes down to whether you choose to believe it is being done. The U.S. did hack an Iranian atomic plant already, so I don't think anything is off the table.
Last edited by enilria on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:19 pm

T4thH wrote:
T4thH wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Someone on Twiiter posted a picture of a Surface-to-air missile wreck, claiming it was taken from the crash site. Reverse search did not find any other similar images that were previously posted, so the image may be recent, but it has not yet been confirmed that it was taken near the crash site.

https://twitter.com/AshkanMonfared_/status/1214956002455375872
Image


OK, I was able to identify the rocket type. This is the head of a 9M330 rocket (and not of an update version 9M331). It can be identified by the rudders, these are different in the 9M331 version. It is used on TOR systems.
Does someone have a picture of the Iranian TOR systems and pictures of the rockets, Iran is using on it? It will be interesting to see, if they have got the 9M330 or the 9M331 in 2005 from Russia. On this way it will be possible to identify, if the picture is a fake or can be true.


OK, it is stupid to link myself but....

According following source, 1200 9M331 have been delivered to Iran. http://survincity.com/2012/10/iran-s-air-defense/
29 PU «Tor-M1» (17 «Tor-M1» on crawlers and 12 complexes in the towed version «Tor-M1T», delivered to them in 1200 9M331 missiles);


The head of the rocket is a 9M330, as already identified. One of both must be wrong, either the statement in the link regarding delivery of 1200 9M331 (and not 9M330) or the picture. It is likely, the picture is a fake or have been taken somewhere else in the world and has nothing to do with Iran and the crashed B737.

And the whole try to identify the rocket type get failed,, as I have to identify, that someone has used a wrong picture for the 9M331. A reverse picture search as last control is sometimes helpful. This can be the head of the whole 9M33x family.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:20 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
SimonL wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:

Looks like the nosecone from an SA-15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Image


It's with close to 100% certainty a 9M330 missile from the SA-15 yes. So if the image is authentic then the cause is quite clear.


Yes. From a Tor-M1.

Iran has 29 Tor-M1 SAM systems.

We just need verification of the picture. But Iranian officials have most likely removed the missile debris by now.

Looks like the guy that posted this picture has a least three more. I'm sure he'll sell you one or two. You'll have to use bot coin of course.

Amazing how he got the worldwide scoop on the picture out of Iran within a few hours of the crash to add to his collection of similar snaps.

Ray

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