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MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:08 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
What sort of mechanical failure could cause a midair explosion like that? The only thing I can think of is an uncontained engine failure piercing and igniting the fuel tanks. Is there any other known issue that could have caused this?

A puncture of the fuel tanks isn't going to result in an explosion unless the fuel tank is mostly empty and already is in the explosive mixture present. That means the tank is in the 30°C to 45°C temperature range. Colder doesn't explode from a lack of fuel fumes and hotter doesn't explode from a lack of air (and the oxygen in it). Usually any aircraft tank is colder than that at all times except on hot days with long times on the ground.

TWA800 was the perfect storm. The center tank was empty because it isn't needed for transatlantic flight. It was a hot summer day, so the little fuel left heated up in the sun and stayed hot. Lacking those conditions, a bunch of shrapnel holes (bomb or engine caused) doesn't result in a catastrophic failure of the aircraft. It means a bunch of fuel leaks and that can cause a fire, and maybe even a subsequent explosion, but not one right away.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:09 pm

Some catastrophic engine failure would be plausible in and of itself. But wouldn't there at least be some time for the pilots to broadcast a mayday, if even a few seconds, before it went off the grid?
 
SEA
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:14 pm

dara88 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Eikie wrote:
It is simpel enough

When height is in feet and distance in statute miles (1.6km), the formula is 1.22 x sqrt(height).

At 8.000 feet (flightlevel 80) the visible distance is 109 SM/175 KM.
Of course weather, visibility and such do play a role.


Minor problem of lots of high mountains between the Gulf and THR.


Where is the Gulf? No such thing exists. It's called PERSIAN Gulf.


It seems like you somehow figured it out though! Miracles do happen :)
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:14 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Carlos01 wrote:
Guys, are you sure about the SA-15? If indeed that warhead is designed to cut the target in half, it doesn't really fit with what we are seeing here. Instead the French Crotale (or a copy of it) would fit the profile, it's smaller in size (would fit the nosecone in the picture better - IF the picture would happen to be legit), and releases High-Energy particles based on a infra-red proximity sensor. Deadly radius on explosion close to 10 meters. (no link, remember this from my time in the AA-forces)

And the question how could this possibly happen, purely speculating, could be as simple as;

- Officer 1: "we are launching an airstrike on US bases in Iraq, get ready for a counter-attack"
- Officer 2: "sure thing, we'll be ready. Will there be any friendly targets in the air in the next hours?"
- Officer 1: "I wouldn't think so, I'm sure they'll shut down the airspace around that time, should be standard protocol"
- Officer 2 to Operator A: "get ready for a US counter-attack, they are shutting down the airspace, consider any target in the air potentially hostile"
- Operator A sees a low-flying target approaching, 1+1 = hit it.

It doesn't take more than a slightly sloppy communication chain. A bit like Tenerife. One small "oops" for the controller, one giant...


6 planes took off after the strike without incident before PS752. This is a big mystery.

The defense missile could have been enabled some hours after the ballistic strike, for example because of new concerning intelligence or military information. Any scenarios are still speculative. But if a 3 years old and properly check 737-800 NG can crash like this by itself, regulators will have even more work to increase safety.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
zhetenyi1973
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:17 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Another video showing the plane going down

https://twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377


You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo
Last edited by zhetenyi1973 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:18 pm

Remember, a punctured tank doesn't = fire ... you need a fuel/air mixture and an ignition source.

There have been several cases where fuel leaks were in-flight, nothing at all happened, because the fuel was sucked into the airstream and dispersed almost instantly.

That's why even an uncontained disc in-flight is so highly unlikely to have started a catastrophic fire ...

Even the BA 777 in Vegas, there was some speculation that had it lifted off there wouldn't have been a fire until it landed again, and the fuel leaked directly onto the hot engine parts, causing ignition (also very similar also to the 737 that had a punctured wing tank).

Those fireballs you're seeing prior to impact are the airframe breaking up, and something (like an engine) going through the cloud of fuel vapor, igniting it.

All of which are occurring after whatever event initiated the accident.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:19 pm

If it's mechanical or technical etc then surely Iran will invite everyone in to help confirm and show there is nothing untoward from missiles etc

They will only hamper an investigation if they have something to hide
 
MatthewDB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:22 pm

PixelFlight wrote:

The "position of the first impact" perfectly fit some last images of the crash: Image
source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... oeing-737/


I can't tell the direction in that photograph - but either a little longer or a little shorter on that impact and there could have been significant additional ground fatalities. Those buildings look residential and that time of the morning would have had most of the people at home.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:23 pm

flybucky wrote:
Yes. I saw an article that said the Iranian news reported the citizenship breakdown something like 130 Iranian citizens on board and barely any Canadians. Which would indicate that they had dual passports/citizenship.

BTW, does anyone have a link to an article that has the citizenship numbers from the Iranian sources? I can't find it anymore.

Found the source:

"The breakdown of the victims’ nationalities also diverged, though that may be because some passengers held dual citizenship; Iran’s tally included 147 Iranians and two Canadians, while Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, said there were 82 Iranians and 63 Canadians."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/worl ... raine.html
 
SEA
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:23 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Another video showing the plane going down

https://twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377


You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


I think you've watched too much sci-fi.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:27 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Some catastrophic engine failure would be plausible in and of itself. But wouldn't there at least be some time for the pilots to broadcast a mayday, if even a few seconds, before it went off the grid?


If the explosion was that bad, they may not have even been alive.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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SuperGee
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:27 pm

Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... a-n1112216

"No survivors after Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane crashes in Iran"
 
chicawgo
Posts: 447
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:30 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Another video showing the plane going down

https://twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377


You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:31 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Carlos01 wrote:
Guys, are you sure about the SA-15? If indeed that warhead is designed to cut the target in half, it doesn't really fit with what we are seeing here. Instead the French Crotale (or a copy of it) would fit the profile, it's smaller in size (would fit the nosecone in the picture better - IF the picture would happen to be legit), and releases High-Energy particles based on a infra-red proximity sensor. Deadly radius on explosion close to 10 meters. (no link, remember this from my time in the AA-forces)

And the question how could this possibly happen, purely speculating, could be as simple as;

- Officer 1: "we are launching an airstrike on US bases in Iraq, get ready for a counter-attack"
- Officer 2: "sure thing, we'll be ready. Will there be any friendly targets in the air in the next hours?"
- Officer 1: "I wouldn't think so, I'm sure they'll shut down the airspace around that time, should be standard protocol"
- Officer 2 to Operator A: "get ready for a US counter-attack, they are shutting down the airspace, consider any target in the air potentially hostile"
- Operator A sees a low-flying target approaching, 1+1 = hit it.

It doesn't take more than a slightly sloppy communication chain. A bit like Tenerife. One small "oops" for the controller, one giant...


6 planes took off after the strike without incident before PS752. This is a big mystery.


Which could mean that something was wrong with that plane or that it was targeted.
 
zhetenyi1973
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Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:08 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:31 pm

SEA wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Another video showing the plane going down

https://twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377


You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


I think you've watched too much sci-fi.


No, I just know what happened with MH17. But tell me, what could cause that small flash if not a missile?
There are not many possibilities. Only fuel/shortcut, engine and terrorist attack.on board beside the missile scenario.
 
zhetenyi1973
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:35 pm

chicawgo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Another video showing the plane going down

https://twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377


You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:36 pm

SuperGee wrote:
Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... a-n1112216

"No survivors after Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane crashes in Iran"


A headline video on YouTube says the plane that went down is a max 737!
 
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GE90man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:37 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
chicawgo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:

You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


The plane has already been going down in flames way before the small flash, and it's not the first thing that is seen.
 
sharpley
Posts: 25
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:37 pm

SuperGee wrote:
Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... a-n1112216

"No survivors after Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane crashes in Iran"

More lazy journalism from Bloomberg : 'Boeing Jet That Crashed in Iran Was Predecessor To 737 Max'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-737-max
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:37 pm

Those Iranians may surprise you yet!

'....Hassan Rezaeifar, head of the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization’s accident-investigation office, said it’s for Iran to decide how and where the plane’s so-called black boxes are decoded, “as per the law,” according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
Reza Jafarzadeh, a spokesman for the aviation organization, told Bloomberg News that his nation observes international protocols, and that Ukraine, “as well as the planemaker,” can take part in the probe....'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-cra ... 05843.html

Ray
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:37 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Some catastrophic engine failure would be plausible in and of itself. But wouldn't there at least be some time for the pilots to broadcast a mayday, if even a few seconds, before it went off the grid?


In this event https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/in ... 80_001.pdf

The engine stopped so quickly (42 revolutions) caused such a severe yaw the co-pilots head hit the pillar between the front window. If that disc that ejected went through the wing instead of just the leading edge it could be very different.

This is a 767 wing which suffered an uncontained failure on the ground during an engine run up, it resulted in the fuel tank being pierced and an extensive fire.

Image

From

https://www.flightglobal.com/pictures-g ... 18.article

“ Judging by images of the incident that have since appeared on the Internet, it appears that an HPT disc ruptured, puncturing the fuel tank in the wing near the trailing edge, slicing partially through the belly of the aircraft and damaging the keel beam. The No.2 engine was also damaged by the exploding debris and the fuel tank on the right wing punctured.”

In that uncontained failure fuel tanks on both wings were punctured by one engine.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:40 pm

All of y'all analyzing these videos are making a presumption that the video contains the entire sequence of events.

It's VERY/LIKELY possible all you are seeing is the endgame, long after whatever initiated the accident occurred, and you're seeing the final stages of descent and breakup.

The only way someone just happened to be filming an airplane 8,000 feet up in the air BEFORE a potential issue occurred, is if they were expecting an issue to occur, and were tracking it to film it.

also, as noted in a few replies above, those flashes you see could very well be airplane pieces impacting high tension power lines.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:40 pm

dara88 wrote:
https://www.isna.ir/photo/98101813851/%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%88%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C#59

There are currently 71 images on that site, with many details. Definitively look like a crash with a lot of horizontal speed.
My understanding is that the vertical tail was found forward the impact trajectory and this is the most intact part remaining.

I can spot one of the black box on the image 23
Image

Maybe the horizontal stabilizer with the arm to the actuator on the right and the APU on the top in the image 2 and 3
Image
Image
Last edited by PixelFlight on Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
2175301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:41 pm

SimonL wrote:
That western intelligence now seems to claim that the plane was not hit by a missile is a heavy argument against it.


I have seen no such claims by western intelligence. Can you provide such a link?

What western intelligence knows will likely never be told - as it would likely identify capabilities they wish to keep secret.

Western intelligence is only likely to release anything if the records are from a known system with known capabilities operating in the region.

As it relates to the crash. May the victims rest in peace; and may the families find peace.

My opinion is that at this point while aircraft malfunction cannot yet be ruled out (exploding fuel tank for some reason, perhaps related to an engine issue - perhaps not). This is most probably either a bomb or a missile due to the suddenness and degree of immediate effects. For the record (and completeness) I believe at this point that pilot actions and errors did not have any significance to this event.

I'm awaiting more evidence: If those are shrapnel holes they should find some shrapnel (as they did in MH-17 - which is what cinched that it was a Russian BUK missile as Ukraine BUK's still have an older warhead). A rod warhead would have caused a large slice somewhere (designed to cut tails or wings off of fighters - and quite effective).

Usually engines contain thrown blades (many examples of them spitting blades out the back). Its only a fracture of a turbine disc that should not be contained.

Lets see what the black boxes say with their data. Iran has everything to loose by not allowing those to be read by independent parties and the information spread to key global parties.

Have a great day,
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:43 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Reuters reporting that Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down, according to a Canadian security source

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-crash-canada-intelligence/western-intelligence-agencies-see-no-signs-ukraine-airliner-was-shot-down-canadian-source-idUSL1N29D1DU?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


I’d like to see the data behind that statement. Sudden loss of all power and a flaming bundle looks like either a missile strike or a bomb.

Look at the video, the crew could NOT have had any control or even been alive to return to the field.


The thing that doesn't add up is that new video looks like a huge mass coming down together. If it was a missile, it would not have been such a single concentrated mass.


Not necessarily, it depends on the missile and where and how it "hits" the aircraft.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
brocky120
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:46 pm

I believe either:

- Foul Play
- Missile attack

I have no evidence of this like all of us here, but these are just my two imfirst insticts based on what I’ve seen and read.

One thing I did see on the two videos was say around 100m above ground or (3 or 4 seconds before impact) the plane seems to explode again. Possible fuel?
 
zhetenyi1973
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:46 pm

GE90man wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
chicawgo wrote:

The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


The plane has already been going down in flames way before the small flash, and it's not the first thing that is seen.


You are talking about a completely different flash. And what is the first thing to see? I see a dark sky and at the right side a
flash and after that huge flames. What do you see? Huge flames immediately?
 
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glideslope
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:46 pm

chicawgo wrote:
The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


IMO, Yes it could. After looking at the images of the scene from daylight that brief flare prior to impact could have been from power lines if the remaining fuselage had some horizontal movement. I thought it looked to be dropping almost vertically in the clip circulating. The pattern of charring on the vertical stab would indicate horizontal movement, but not its origin in the event, IMO.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
Chemist
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:47 pm

AirnerdTX wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Interested wrote:

Any missile that hit the plane should have landed nowhere near where the plane eventually crashed

They should be miles away from each other

The missile won't stay with the plane until it comes down will it?


Also the fact that in flight breakup or disintegration causing loss of structural integrity, for whatever reason missile or something else, I'd expect to look more like the Columbia disaster with multiple fragments coming down separately. I only see one mass coming down in that video which is a tough sell.

Image



But at night and that distance, a bright flash would drown out the smaller bits of fire around it. That Columbia photo is filtered and zoomed in. There wasn't a large enough distance for the pieces to fall at much of a different rate of speed so you could see them individually.

However, I would expect to see some trailing pieces that "flared" off.


The speed of the Columbia breakup was at least an order of magnitude greater than that of a 737. Not comparable.
 
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GE90man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:52 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
GE90man wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:

The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


The plane has already been going down in flames way before the small flash, and it's not the first thing that is seen.


You are talking about a completely different flash. And what is the first thing to see? I see a dark sky and at the right side a
flash and after that huge flames. What do you see? Huge flames immediately?

I understand the flash you're talking about right before impact. But that seems to come from the plane itself, and the plane has already been going down in flames (see video of the other angle on avherald)
 
N212R
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:52 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
Absolutely tragic. I would guess there were a number of people on the flight wanting to get out of Tehran to because of the escalating issues.


And likely more than a few that Iranian intelligence would be happy to see not arrive at their destination.
 
chicawgo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:53 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
chicawgo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:

You can see in this video that there was a small flash right before the huge flames.
That flash can only be some detonation either a missile or the engine. I think a
missile exploding at the other side of the plane (the reason why there was only
a small flash from this vantage point) is more likely than such a huge engine failure
or a bomb on board.

Edit: fixed typo


The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


I'm talking about the pretty large flare about a second before it hits the ground. Not any flares earlier on.
 
arfbool
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:55 pm

Close up of all the FlightRadar24 data showing only when the plane was on the runway or in flight. I don't think this reveals anything new from what we were able to tell initially when the crash was first reported.

Image
 
brocky120
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:55 pm

chicawgo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
chicawgo wrote:

The pictures show huge electrical lines and towers all around the area. Couldn’t the plane or pieces hitting those have caused the flashes right before ground impact?


The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


I'm talking about the pretty large flare about a second before it hits the ground. Not any flares earlier on.



I noticed this. Its a fairly big explosions before it hits the ground. Fuel and power lines perhaps? Who knows.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:01 pm

138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:02 pm

zeke wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Some catastrophic engine failure would be plausible in and of itself. But wouldn't there at least be some time for the pilots to broadcast a mayday, if even a few seconds, before it went off the grid?


In this event https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/in ... 80_001.pdf

The engine stopped so quickly (42 revolutions) caused such a severe yaw the co-pilots head hit the pillar between the front window. If that disc that ejected went through the wing instead of just the leading edge it could be very different.

This is a 767 wing which suffered an uncontained failure on the ground during an engine run up, it resulted in the fuel tank being pierced and an extensive fire.

Image

From

https://www.flightglobal.com/pictures-g ... 18.article

“ Judging by images of the incident that have since appeared on the Internet, it appears that an HPT disc ruptured, puncturing the fuel tank in the wing near the trailing edge, slicing partially through the belly of the aircraft and damaging the keel beam. The No.2 engine was also damaged by the exploding debris and the fuel tank on the right wing punctured.”

In that uncontained failure fuel tanks on both wings were punctured by one engine.

I think that in that particular 767 case, the fact that the fire started while on the ground contributed extensive to the wing fire damage.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:03 pm

I do think missile or bomb. But when it came to MH17 (downed by a missile) and MetroJet (downed by a bomb) I'm fairly sure western intelligence were quick to point out their suspicions. They're rather silent in this instance and Iran is one place in the world I'd expect them to watching and listening VERY carefully.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:05 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


How did it go from 60-70 to 138?
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:05 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


If we assume they were all connecting to UIA's Toronto flight I'd imagine the atmosphere on that flight must have been every sombre.
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:06 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


How did it go from 60-70 to 138?


Canadian citizens versus persons traveling to Canada.
Last edited by NonTechAvLover on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 367
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:06 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


How did it go from 60-70 to 138?


Citizens versus travelling!
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:09 pm

That is devastating to the tight knit Iranian-Canadian community. A huge amount of people in that community would directly or indirectly know someone who perished in this crash.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
MatthewDB
Posts: 172
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:14 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


How did it go from 60-70 to 138?


Perhaps the other 68-78 are non-Canadian nationals traveling to Canada?
 
chicawgo
Posts: 447
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:15 pm

mxaxai wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
memphiX wrote:
16 pages and nobody mentioned "TWA 800" yet.


What do you think happened to TWA that is related to this accident?


There will be speculation of malicious intent for decades even if the official investigation concludes otherwise? So many here "know" that this 737 was shot down just like they "know" that TWA 800 was shot down, "know" that Bush did 9/11 and "know" that MH370 was secretly diverted to Diego Garcia. Don't bother with the facts, just create your own personal reality ...


To be fair.... there are degrees of this. It's not black and white. You can't compare skepticism of this accident with Bush doing 9/11. The probablities of each are not in the same universe.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:15 pm

Lot of details (warning some human remains) after 30 seconds in that video: https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/0/61535763.mp4
Look like a lot of peoples and efforts on the crash site.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:17 pm

SuperGee wrote:
Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... a-n1112216

"No survivors after Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane crashes in Iran"


Damn these journalists and their facts. :sarcastic:

sharpley wrote:
SuperGee wrote:
Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... a-n1112216

"No survivors after Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane crashes in Iran"

More lazy journalism from Bloomberg : 'Boeing Jet That Crashed in Iran Was Predecessor To 737 Max'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-737-max


In what way isn’t a 737NG the predecessor to MAX?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1437
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:17 pm

sevenair wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


If we assume they were all connecting to UIA's Toronto flight I'd imagine the atmosphere on that flight must have been every sombre.


One of the few times where having an open seat next to you isn't a good thing.
 
Viper911
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:29 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:18 pm

michi wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
However a close pattern of multiple holes all with similar directions of travel would indicate a blast. I have seen my fair share of vehicles that have been hit by IED’s. Very similar pattern as what an air burst (proximity detonation) would do.


After a quick search it looks like that a SA-15 uses a warhead with a CR-Warhead (Continous Rod Warhead). This warhead does not produce shrapnel but a "ring of steel" cutting through the target.



Actually, according to some websites both 9K330 and 9K331 rockets have a 15 kg, high explosive fragmentation warhead, operated by a proximity fuse, so in this case yes, fragmentation (shrapnel) damage should be seen on debris.

AirnerdTX wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:

Any missile that hit the plane should have landed nowhere near where the plane eventually crashed

They should be miles away from each other

The missile won't stay with the plane until it comes down will it?


Also the fact that in flight breakup or disintegration causing loss of structural integrity, for whatever reason missile or something else, I'd expect to look more like the Columbia disaster with multiple fragments coming down separately. I only see one mass coming down in that video which is a tough sell.

Image


Except that the shuttle penetrates the Earth's atmosphere at 17,500 mph, with considerably higher aerodynamical and structural loads. On the other hand the 737 has barely climbed to 8000 ft where it was still barely pressurised, shrapnel damage while the fuselage is not under high stress (low pressure difference) will highly unlikely create a complete disintegration of the aircraft (a la MH17 and Lockerbie).

Viper911
 
N212R
Posts: 334
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:21 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Media and information in this world is controlled by a Cabal and is highly coordinated. Watch any breaking news with a political slant and see how the message is unified worldwide within minutes, down to the exact phrasing.


You might even find a few card-carrying members lurking here on Anet. :D
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:22 pm

2175301 wrote:
I have seen no such claims by western intelligence. Can you provide such a link?

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source. The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction."
https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-cr ... SL1N29D1DU

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