Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
T4thH
Posts: 1044
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:22 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
GE90man wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:

The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames


The plane has already been going down in flames way before the small flash, and it's not the first thing that is seen.


You are talking about a completely different flash. And what is the first thing to see? I see a dark sky and at the right side a
flash and after that huge flames. What do you see? Huge flames immediately?


There is another video which was first posted.somewhere here. In this video (from a complete different position/direction), you can see, that the jet is already for prolonged time burning and slowly going down. The flash is when the video is already 30 or 40 sec old, just prior the impact. I will see if I will be able to find the link and to edit this post accordingly.

EDIT: It was already on page 1 of this thread.
https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250
Last edited by T4thH on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:25 pm

The plane being shot down is an obvious possibility considering the circumstances however it seems like the shameless gas lighting from Boeing fanboys has already begun.

If Iran was indeed to blame they could have easily kept absolute secrecy but there are encouraging signs that they are willing to cooperate. Not only did they allow detailed photographs of the crash site to surface (probably not possible / enough time to cover something up) but they also also claim to be open to allow Ukraine and even Boeing to participate in the investigation. The fact that they mentioned the manufacturer as a possible party to the investigation is amazing considering the recent events. They might very well end up sending the black boxes to some "neutral" party like France in the next few weeks. All of this signals to me that they are at least acting as if they have nothing to hide.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:26 pm

arfbool wrote:
Close up of all the FlightRadar24 data showing only when the plane was on the runway or in flight. I don't think this reveals anything new from what we were able to tell initially when the crash was first reported.

Thanks for the graphs. The granular data does confirm that the altitude gain, speed, track were perfectly steady up to the very last data point. Not even the slightest leveling off.

So that would seem to indicate that it was an instantaneously catastrophic event that immediately cut off ADS-B transmission. Not a normal engine fire or damage that would reduce thrust first before causing massive damage.
 
User avatar
United787
Posts: 2938
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 12:20 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:27 pm

N212R wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
Absolutely tragic. I would guess there were a number of people on the flight wanting to get out of Tehran to because of the escalating issues.


And likely more than a few that Iranian intelligence would be happy to see not arrive at their destination.


Wow. If that was remotely true, don't you think it would have been easier to just stop those people at passport control at the airport OR arrest them at the gate while the plane was delayed OR go onto the plane and arrest them before they took off OR not allow the plane to take off and arrest them then? But instead, the Iranian Intelligence just decided to blow the plane out of the sky instead?

I have no affinity for the Iranian government and I think the plane was likely shot down, but most likely by accident. You should be a writer for B movies in Hollywood.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:29 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
It's been mentioned several times, although I see that when I try to demonstrate that, the search feature fails.


Yeah, it seems that the search feature is semi-broken. It doesn't find some keywords, but finds others. It definitely used to work extremely well.

Anyone know if it's been broken for a while? Maybe I'll report it on the site forum.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1885
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:29 pm

flybucky wrote:
arfbool wrote:
Close up of all the FlightRadar24 data showing only when the plane was on the runway or in flight. I don't think this reveals anything new from what we were able to tell initially when the crash was first reported.

Thanks for the graphs. The granular data does confirm that the altitude gain, speed, track were perfectly steady up to the very last data point. Not even the slightest leveling off.

So that would seem to indicate that it was an instantaneously catastrophic event that immediately cut off ADS-B transmission. Not a normal engine fire or damage that would reduce thrust first before causing massive damage.

That's how most uncontained engine failures look like. Everything going smooth until, suddenly, *bang*, there's a few more holes in your jet than you'd really like.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6029
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:39 pm

mxaxai wrote:
flybucky wrote:
arfbool wrote:
Close up of all the FlightRadar24 data showing only when the plane was on the runway or in flight. I don't think this reveals anything new from what we were able to tell initially when the crash was first reported.

Thanks for the graphs. The granular data does confirm that the altitude gain, speed, track were perfectly steady up to the very last data point. Not even the slightest leveling off.

So that would seem to indicate that it was an instantaneously catastrophic event that immediately cut off ADS-B transmission. Not a normal engine fire or damage that would reduce thrust first before causing massive damage.

That's how most uncontained engine failures look like. Everything going smooth until, suddenly, *bang*, there's a few more holes in your jet than you'd really like.


Usually the uncontained high energy failure doesn’t simultaneously cause loss of all electrical power, as indicated by the instantaneous loss of ADS-B. In fact, I can’t think of one. Think QF 32 or WN1380-a 737NG no less. I’d love to know how they determined it was an overheated engine and said engine caused an explosion.
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FANMD11
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:48 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:40 pm

T4thH wrote:

There is another video which was first posted.somewhere here. In this video (from a complete different position/direction), you can see, that the jet is already for prolonged time burning and slowly going down. The flash is when the video is already 30 or 40 sec old, just prior the impact. I will see if I will be able to find the link and to edit this post accordingly.

EDIT: It was already on page 1 of this thread.
https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250


And when I first watched that video it made me think of the AF4590 (Concorde crash)
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2530
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
SuperGee wrote:
Headline writers stirring the pot some and pointing out that it was a "Boeing" airplane:


Soon as I heard about the crash on the radio this morning, I knew the media would quickly try to link this to the MAX (in a way that suggests the crash might be linked to the MAX issues) in one way or another.
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:47 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
The small flash is the first thing to see on the dark sky. It is clearly the root cause of the accident.
This is the timeline: small flash -> dark for a moment -> huge flames
...
And what is the first thing to see? I see a dark sky and at the right side a
flash and after that huge flames. What do you see? Huge flames immediately?


At which second of the video do you see the small flash? Can you take a screenshot and circle the small flash you're talking about?

Is this the small flash that you are referring to at 0:04 seconds (in the red square)? I think you may be confused because it's actually a vertical video from a phone, and there are 2 vertical black bars on the left and right sides of the video. The "small flash" at 0:04 is just the huge flaming airplane partially entering the frame, exiting the frame, then entering again (due to the shaky handheld phone).

Image
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8963
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:47 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
flybucky wrote:
Thanks for the graphs. The granular data does confirm that the altitude gain, speed, track were perfectly steady up to the very last data point. Not even the slightest leveling off.

So that would seem to indicate that it was an instantaneously catastrophic event that immediately cut off ADS-B transmission. Not a normal engine fire or damage that would reduce thrust first before causing massive damage.

That's how most uncontained engine failures look like. Everything going smooth until, suddenly, *bang*, there's a few more holes in your jet than you'd really like.


Usually the uncontained high energy failure doesn’t simultaneously cause loss of all electrical power, as indicated by the instantaneous loss of ADS-B. In fact, I can’t think of one. Think QF 32 or WN1380-a 737NG no less. I’d love to know how they determined it was an overheated engine and said engine caused an explosion.


They didn't. It's propaganda. It's the same news outlet that said the rockets killed dozens of American soldiers and destroyed lots of our tanks. (Which I'm happy they're doing, because it means they did a fireworks show, told lies to their people to tamp down unrest, and can now go back to "normal" for now.)

But absent any call from the plane, which they have admitted, they can't say it was "a technical fault" (or "a mechanical problem" as we say in the US) with any semblance of credibility.

I don't remember an uncontained engine failure that put as much shrapnel into the tail as it did into the wings and fuselage. For me, that's a big concern that will need to be explained.

So far, the media sources aren't articulating a specific suspected cause that makes rational sense. In order to "know" it was a mechanical issue right away, you would likely have to know what that issue was. That's possible, like if the guys who worked on it at Teheran had an "oh crap" moment as the plane was going down the runway, like finding some part they forgot to reinstall. But that would be seriously-unlikely, and would then lead to a more-specific explanation than "the engine overheated". That's not an explanation that makes sense to anybody that knows anything about aviation, and depends upon a certain amount of ignorance in the listener.

I am a firm believer that coincidence in time doesn't prove causation, so we have to analyze the crash independently of the context in which it happened. However, given that transport-category-aircraft hull-losses are so incredibly-rare, that one would happen on the same night in the capital of the same country that was conducting military action in a heightened state of military alert, the relationship between the two absolutely has to be explored.
Last edited by wjcandee on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:04 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1019
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:47 pm

The point of view of Iran media, by using google Chrome, translate in your language, and take the result with care because translation from Persian is far from perfect.
https://www.isna.ir/news/98101813904/%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%87-%DA%86%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%B2%D8%B4%DA%A9%DB%8C

Mostly expected press coverage in case of a such crash near urban location. Something interesting about the black boxes: "Existing laws and regulations tell us where and how to read the black box, as the law explicitly states that the black box must be read in a reputable, state-of-the-art responsible laboratory, Iran. So we determine what happens in this area."
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
iamtom
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 5:36 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:48 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
* ADS-B data show a normal climb.
* ADS-B data suddenly stop in the air, without yet identified abnormal data.
* Last ADS-B data position is far away from the crash site, almost as far as the airport, roughly about 2 minutes of flight.
* Video show aircraft on fire about 30 seconds before impact. so the fire evolved vary fast.
* Video show that debris fell from the aircraft in fire.
* Video show brighter fire a few second before impact.
* Impact position is about in the 5 hour angle from the last ADS-B trajectory, imply a turn, voluntary or not.
* Not distress call reported yet.
* 3 years old 737-800 NG, last check two days ago.

So something massive happened suddenly that caused the ADS-B data to stop immediately, to put the aircraft in a fire big enough to release debris in flight and to loss the control in about two minutes. From a safety point of view, there are two main possibles scenarios groups:
1) The accident will later found to be only related to the aircraft itself (speculatively an engine uncontained failure, or fuel tank failure).
2) The accident will later found to not be related to the aircraft itself (speculatively an on-board fire, or missile shot).
Hard to tell now witch one is what happened, but if it's the aircraft itself, this will be a yet major blow for the civil aircraft safety regulators.

My personal opinion is that the immediate loss of ADS-B data is difficult to explain with a fire so visible that it's almost certainly the aircraft fuel burning. To my knowledge, ADS-B and fuel are not on the same location in the aircraft.


Worth noting the flight was delayed approx. 70 minutes due to a technical issue on the ground.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:51 pm

So if it wasn't explosives or missiles then it must have been one hell of a technical fault! We need to get to the bottom of it given how may 737-800s there are in service. Boeing's headache are going to escalate rapidly.

The debris field shows a largely intact plane and a very high energy impact as opposed to breaking up and fluttering down. If parts fell earloer in the crash sequence then hopefully they'll be found soon. The picture of the spent missile part seems to be a red herring as the poster of the picture hasn't provided the meta data to accompany it. If they did then perhaps it would be more believable.

We may never know the truth.
Last edited by sevenair on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:59 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
Lot of details (warning some human remains) after 30 seconds in that video: https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/0/61535763.mp4
Look like a lot of peoples and efforts on the crash site.


What strikes me is how large the debris field is... it seems much larger than I am used to seeing from accidents.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
IADCA
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:00 pm

WPIAeroGuy wrote:
SimonL wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash/boeing-jet-crashes-in-iran-with-no-survivors-security-sources-see-technical-cause-idUSKBN1Z70EL


I could understand security services saying they didn’t have evidence of a missile attack, but it seems strange they would make the positive statement about the overheated engine. Are they spying on ITT gages now?


Some modern engines transmit data in nearly real-time to manufacturers and carriers, especially if they're on a power-by-the-hour model. If the CFM56s on this bird were so equipped, it wouldn't surprise me that much if a security service had a way to access the data feeds pretty quickly. A lot of ifs in there, but it's a possibility.
Last edited by IADCA on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:02 pm

osiris30 wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
Lot of details (warning some human remains) after 30 seconds in that video: https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/0/61535763.mp4
Look like a lot of peoples and efforts on the crash site.


What strikes me is how large the debris field is... it seems much larger than I am used to seeing from accidents.


It reminds me of Flydubai at Rostov on Don. Very little in the way of aircraft and just a large 'smear' of tiny fragments and charred ground.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:04 pm

One thing is for certain, if Iran shot it down on accident, they definitely know.

Hard to know, being an American, I get a pretty skewed view of Iran, but what is the general consensus on their government's transparency? If they did shoot it down on accident, would they ever admit it?

No matter the case, and I've said it before, but I think the best thing Iran can do is to invite Boeing. It would show a lot of maturity lacking in this diplomatic ****show
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:04 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/s ... 6797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire seen on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
ual763
Posts: 1027
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 11:46 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:12 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire seen on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.


Missile causing a big fire is very very unlikely? Hmm aircraft fully loaded with fuel meets missile filled with explosives.... Nothing to see here everyone. Case closed
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:14 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
One thing is for certain, if Iran shot it down on accident, they definitely know.

Hard to know, being an American, I get a pretty skewed view of Iran, but what is the general consensus on their government's transparency? If they did shoot it down on accident, would they ever admit it?

No matter the case, and I've said it before, but I think the best thing Iran can do is to invite Boeing. It would show a lot of maturity lacking in this diplomatic ****show


Didn't the Iranian regime say that they killed 80 coalition force personnel when actually nobody was killed? Says it all about their transparency.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:15 pm

ual763 wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire seen on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.


Missile causing a big fire is very very unlikely? Hmm aircraft fully loaded with fuel meets missile filled with explosives.... Nothing to see here everyone. Case closed


An overheating engine would actively be adding to the fire while a missile hit would be more of a “bang” instantaneous fire instead of a sustained one.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1019
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:15 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire see on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.

The first video on page 1 of this thread show debits detaching from the aircraft on fire several seconds before the fire intensity increase, and this was obviously several seconds after the guy spotted the fire in the sky since it take some time to start the video. So I can assume that some structure was detaching because of the fire, and less probably because of the initial event that ignited the fire. A rupture of the fuel tank could explain the fire intensity increase.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
dstblj52
Posts: 455
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:19 pm

Look it's a good thing from a geo political point of view of everyone pretends this was a technical fault and definitely not anyone's fault, especially in a region as unstable as that.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:20 pm

OA940 wrote:
All I have to say is that there is nothing credible proving any theory atm, and yall are just pretending to be the NTSB. The missile theory has no evidence now that the ''shrapnel'' turned out to be just pebbles.

It was a blurry image where pebbles were mistaken for shrapnel damage. There are others, clearer pictures, showing holes in the fuselage
 
Morvious
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:36 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:20 pm

Draken21fx wrote:
Morvious wrote:
Draken21fx wrote:



True. But on the other hand, would you post such a picture with your normal username etc?
First thing I thought when I saw the picture was that the person posting that picture must be very brave, stupid, fake or not traceable.


Agreed, but then again would you trust a person who is using a fake picture on their profile, non reverse traceable, who opened the profile only a few months ago and posts only anti Iranian gov posts to serve you a legit non metadata tagged picture of a missile part in a ditch in an unidentifiable location?

Again not an expert in any of the fields that are discussed in the topic but I do want evidence before I draw conclusions and that goes for the accident/incident in question as well, and any "proof" anyone is posting.


No I would not, just pointed out that I could understand a source like this could use fake id's.
IMHO there is just to much going on in that region ATM to trust any source this soon. Hopefully the truth will come out though.

I can't imagine how this must feel like for the relatives.
have a good day,

HereThen
 
Viper911
Posts: 341
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:29 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:27 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire seen on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.



Just a reminder that the Concorde was brought down by a piece of rubber, that started a chain reaction that ruptured the fuel tank, that was subsequently ignited. Of course it a pure speculation, but don't you think there is the slightest chance that if missile explodes within meters of the aircraft releasing hundreds pieces of deadly shrapnel, that might have the same effect as it was in the case of the Concorde thus creating the fire.

Viper911
Last edited by Viper911 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1044
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:28 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SBayatpour/status/1214981406797029377

Rewatching that video suggests that there must have been something major that kept the fire burning all the way down at that level of intensity. Especially the fact that it momentarily pulses brighter is almost impossible if it was a missile hit because something after the missile hit would have caused it. A catastrophic engine fire would have been burning and getting stronger all the way to impact and would explain why it pulsed brightly since the overheating fire would still have been active. Not suggesting that a missile couldn’t have started a fire, but it is very, very unlikely it would have caused the level of fire seen on the video or have caused the mysterious pulse after a missile hit.


Please use the first and much longer video.
https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250

The plane is going down in flames. There is no mystery pulse or anything else. The plane is just on heavy fire, loosing some parts (as can be seen on the video) and shortly prior impact, something like a tanks pops or something is breaking away or or or... But the sudden and catastrophic event, which also cuts all data transfer, was just much earlier, even much earlier than the longer video shows. Interestingly it seems the jet is still partly controlled to the end, it still seems to glide (and not going down completely uncontrolled), so possibly the vertical control is still working (and the horizontal control lost or highly limited)?
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:29 pm

Is it possible that during the 1hr delay before takeoff, there was a mechanical fault with the engine for which an FAA approved component wasn’t available at IKA due to sanctions? Under stress of a possible US military strike and a rush to leave as soon as possible, mechanics at IKA replaced the faulty engine component with a defective Iranian made copy?
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
User avatar
gatibosgru
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:34 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
It's whimsical how some think this bird was not brought down by nefarious means. Keep the theories coming though because it makes for an entertaining read.


Not saying it wasn't, but you must know something we don't?
@DadCelo
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4234
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:41 pm

A few reminders to users:

This thread is for aviation discussion only. Political comments belong in the Non Aviation Forum.

Posts with links only will be removed! Forum rules require users to include their own commentary in EVERY post.

Please be careful of what images are posted. Any images require proper citation for copyright reasons. Furthermore, since there are a number of graphic images circulating, please be sure that anything posted directly to the forum is appropriate. Anything that may be graphic or disturbing should be noted as such if a link is posted. Please be considerate to other users.

Finally, posts in simple agreement with other users are removed per forum rules. Please be sure your posts are contributing to the discussion. Simply saying that you agree with someone cutters up the discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
CPHGuard
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:58 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:44 pm

https://www.isna.ir/photo/98101813851/س ... وکراینی#24

There are some truly horrifying pictures posted on the above link, so viewers discretion is advised...

What is interesting is that I do not see a single piece of fuselage with holes in it.
I looked quite a bit, and I just cannot seem to find any evidence of shrapnel.

I understand most contributors believe this to be foul play, but there are other crashes with immense fire from the wing, f.ex. AF Concorde.
A big uncontained engine failure puncturing a major hole in the wing, fuel spilling and mixing with air, and then ignition on a hot source such as the exhaust.

Random pictures of used missile pieces in some undisclosed place, I simply cannot take serious.
 
noobjustafan
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:44 pm

Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.
 
beechnut
Posts: 927
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:46 pm

Retracting burning landing gear, fire in wheel well melts through hydraulic and fuel lines, fire intensifies, melts though wing spar... it's happened before (Caravelle in Switzerland, Nationair DC8 in Saudi Arabia). Perhaps the "technical fault" and ground delay was related to tires/landing gear/brakes? It will be interesting to find out why there was a tech delay.

I'm rather doubtful it was a missile.

Beech
Last edited by beechnut on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirwayBill
Posts: 181
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:37 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:47 pm

And here we go again.

This just smells like the new TWA 800 to me. A theater of emotional truthers and loud mouths, making false claims based on hijacked/unverified/low quality/wrongly interpreted pictures, videos, sets of data (choose one or several), using the power of the internet to spread their appealingly sensational bs, little facts or evidence, or none at all, as a matter of fact, etc, etc, etc.

Speculation is nothing but dangerous at this stage.
Last edited by AirwayBill on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4234
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:49 pm

Well it's only been seven minutes, but once again, I will remind users that political comments do not belong in this forum. They will be removed, so please just go to the Non Aviation Forum instead.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:51 pm

noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.


That was scary to watch. How close was that to the impact? Was that from someone’s house?
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1379
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:53 pm

noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.


That's impressive.
 
N212R
Posts: 330
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:53 pm

United787 wrote:
I have no affinity for the Iranian government and I think the plane was likely shot down, but most likely by accident. You should be a writer for B movies in Hollywood.


Like they say...Truth is stranger than fiction.

The Iranians are a lot of things but they don't "accidentally" shoot down commercial airplanes.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:57 pm

N212R wrote:
United787 wrote:
I have no affinity for the Iranian government and I think the plane was likely shot down, but most likely by accident. You should be a writer for B movies in Hollywood.


Like they say...Truth is stranger than fiction.

The Iranians are a lot of things but they don't "accidentally" shoot down commercial airplanes.

Neither do Americans or Russian backed forces. Oh wait
 
noobjustafan
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:58 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.


That was scary to watch. How close was that to the impact? Was that from someone’s house?


I’m not sure - found it from twitter. Appears to be around 6-7 meters from the surface.
 
Capt.Fantastic
Posts: 862
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 1999 4:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:58 pm

And in July 1988, many were saying the same thing about United States, until the truth was inescapable.

N212R wrote:
United787 wrote:
I have no affinity for the Iranian government and I think the plane was likely shot down, but most likely by accident. You should be a writer for B movies in Hollywood.


The Iranians are a lot of things but they don't "accidentally" shoot down commercial airplanes.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:59 pm

beechnut wrote:
Retracting burning landing gear, fire in wheel well melts through hydraulic and fuel lines, fire intensifies, melts though wing spar... it's happened before (Caravelle in Switzerland, Nationair DC8 in Saudi Arabia). Perhaps the "technical fault" and ground delay was related to tires/landing gear/brakes? It will be interesting to find out why there was a tech delay.

I'm rather doubtful it was a missile.

Beech


It was pretty cold in Tehran yesterday, no? Not sure why the brakes would get so hot, especially before takeoff.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
MaksFly
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:09 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
N212R wrote:
United787 wrote:
I have no affinity for the Iranian government and I think the plane was likely shot down, but most likely by accident. You should be a writer for B movies in Hollywood.


Like they say...Truth is stranger than fiction.

The Iranians are a lot of things but they don't "accidentally" shoot down commercial airplanes.

Neither do Americans or Russian backed forces. Oh wait


So put your thinking hat on... why would they shoot down an airliner with their own people on it? There is ZERO political win there.
Only win here is for Americans who are now on Facebook saying ... "See... Iran shut down their own."

Here are the facts...
Plane was just serviced 2 days ago, and was on the ground for over an hour due to a technical issue....

We all should know as aviation people or fans, the most dangerous time for a plane is during the climb and in the moments after getting serviced or getting work done.
 
Morvious
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:36 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:11 am

sonicruiser wrote:
beechnut wrote:
Retracting burning landing gear, fire in wheel well melts through hydraulic and fuel lines, fire intensifies, melts though wing spar... it's happened before (Caravelle in Switzerland, Nationair DC8 in Saudi Arabia). Perhaps the "technical fault" and ground delay was related to tires/landing gear/brakes? It will be interesting to find out why there was a tech delay.

I'm rather doubtful it was a missile.

Beech


It was pretty cold in Tehran yesterday, no? Not sure why the brakes would get so hot, especially before takeoff.

Long taxi runs with lots of braking, technical issues.

anyway, I believe this aircraft has a warning message for hot brakes so normal procedures would be gears out longer for departure to cool them?
have a good day,

HereThen
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:15 am

MaksFly wrote:

So put your thinking hat on... why would they shoot down an airliner with their own people on it?

Ok putting on my thinking hat... Oh, an accident????
:roll:
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:17 am

Morvious wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
beechnut wrote:
Retracting burning landing gear, fire in wheel well melts through hydraulic and fuel lines, fire intensifies, melts though wing spar... it's happened before (Caravelle in Switzerland, Nationair DC8 in Saudi Arabia). Perhaps the "technical fault" and ground delay was related to tires/landing gear/brakes? It will be interesting to find out why there was a tech delay.

I'm rather doubtful it was a missile.

Beech


It was pretty cold in Tehran yesterday, no? Not sure why the brakes would get so hot, especially before takeoff.

Long taxi runs with lots of braking, technical issues.

anyway, I believe this aircraft has a warning message for hot brakes so normal procedures would be gears out longer for departure to cool them?

I don't think they have hot brakes warnings but they should have a wheel well fire warning
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:18 am

MaksFly wrote:
Plane was just serviced 2 days ago, and was on the ground for over an hour due to a technical issue.

Where can I find a source for that info?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19993
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:23 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
flybucky wrote:
Thanks for the graphs. The granular data does confirm that the altitude gain, speed, track were perfectly steady up to the very last data point. Not even the slightest leveling off.

So that would seem to indicate that it was an instantaneously catastrophic event that immediately cut off ADS-B transmission. Not a normal engine fire or damage that would reduce thrust first before causing massive damage.

That's how most uncontained engine failures look like. Everything going smooth until, suddenly, *bang*, there's a few more holes in your jet than you'd really like.


Usually the uncontained high energy failure doesn’t simultaneously cause loss of all electrical power, as indicated by the instantaneous loss of ADS-B. In fact, I can’t think of one. Think QF 32 or WN1380-a 737NG no less. I’d love to know how they determined it was an overheated engine and said engine caused an explosion.

I too know of no engine failure that causes loss of ADS-B. That would be a far more disastrous failure as there should be 4 other power sources to ADS-B (other engine generator, APU, RAT, and battery).

I even studied a dual engine loss and power was available for minutes afterward.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
WPIAeroGuy
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:52 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:23 am

IADCA wrote:
WPIAeroGuy wrote:
SimonL wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash/boeing-jet-crashes-in-iran-with-no-survivors-security-sources-see-technical-cause-idUSKBN1Z70EL


I could understand security services saying they didn’t have evidence of a missile attack, but it seems strange they would make the positive statement about the overheated engine. Are they spying on ITT gages now?


Some modern engines transmit data in nearly real-time to manufacturers and carriers, especially if they're on a power-by-the-hour model. If the CFM56s on this bird were so equipped, it wouldn't surprise me that much if a security service had a way to access the data feeds pretty quickly. A lot of ifs in there, but it's a possibility.


Good point, but even still it seems odd and inappropriate for a ‘security agency’ to make that kind claim, let alone multiple. Then again, could be a poor interpretation of technical jargon by the author.
-WPIAeroGuy

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos