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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:25 am

noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.

Absolutely incredible video. Amazing that the camera was not destroyed in the crash.

I can spot a chunk of the aircraft going forward at an insane speed, then followed by the fire. It's intriguing that all the small fires at the end look like a lot of small solid burning, not just liquid fuel. I suspect burning baggages.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:27 am

MaksFly wrote:
Plane was just serviced 2 days ago, and was on the ground for over an hour due to a technical issue.

OK, I found a source about the plane being serviced on Monday (2 days ago).

"The Ukraine International Airlines jet that went down Wednesday was three years old and had been serviced on Monday, the Kyiv-based carrier said in a statement."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ew-crisis/

I have not found a source that said it was delayed for an hour due to technical issue, only that it was delayed an hour (but didn't give a reason).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:29 am

MaksFly wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
N212R wrote:

Like they say...Truth is stranger than fiction.

The Iranians are a lot of things but they don't "accidentally" shoot down commercial airplanes.

Neither do Americans or Russian backed forces. Oh wait


So put your thinking hat on... why would they shoot down an airliner with their own people on it? There is ZERO political win there.
Only win here is for Americans who are now on Facebook saying ... "See... Iran shut down their own."

Here are the facts...
Plane was just serviced 2 days ago, and was on the ground for over an hour due to a technical issue....

We all should know as aviation people or fans, the most dangerous time for a plane is during the climb and in the moments after getting serviced or getting work done.

But what caused a sudden loss of power. That requires many things to fail at once. It takes an explosion greater than any engine failure I know of to create the known symptoms. Or, all power busses disconnecting: This would be a first of that level of failure.

The 737NG has a very simple electrical system. Unless an engine failed sending parts through multiple power distribution lines. I believe there is battery backup for ADS-B.

Lightsaber
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Rara
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:38 am

The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.

In the history of aviation, only a small number of civil airliners were actually downed by missiles. It's an extremely rare occurence. Technical incidents, on the other hand, have caused thousands, probably ten thousands of fatal crashes.

People put a lot of stock in the fact that the crash coincided with military action by Iran. That's certainly notable, and it raises the relative merit of the missile theory. At the same time, let's not forget that in many places in the world, both current and historical, military tension and civil aviation exist side by side. In many places of in the Middle East, for instance, there is a constant possibility of bombing / missiles, and yet passenger planes land and depart all the time without being accidentally shot down. During the Cold War, tensions were often extreme and air strikes or missile assaults were something many countries reckoned with or prepared for, and yet airliners were almost never shot down (but came crashing down for other reasons all the time).
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GE90man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:45 am

PixelFlight wrote:
noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.

Absolutely incredible video. Amazing that the camera was not destroyed in the crash.

I can spot a chunk of the aircraft going forward at an insane speed, then followed by the fire. It's intriguing that all the small fires at the end look like a lot of small solid burning, not just liquid fuel. I suspect burning baggages.

Some were speculating it could’ve been a body. Absolutely horrifying to watch.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:47 am

CBC News Network is pre-empting lots for programming for coverage of flight 752. 138 of the passengers were headed to Canada, 63 were Canadian citizens, a large number were university students and many others were high profile members of their respective local communities. Most Iranian-Canadians contribute deeply to Canada and many are doctors, engineers and the like so many of the victims were well known in Canada.

They are also interviewing many who were on the connecting flight from Kyiv to Toronto where there were 138 empty seats due to the crash of flight 752. One man in particular was distraught over the empty seat beside him as he knew it was one of the victims.

Canada has taken huge losses with ET 302 just 10 months ago and now this.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:50 am

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
You are talking about a completely different flash. And what is the first thing to see? I see a dark sky and at the right side a
flash and after that huge flames. What do you see? Huge flames immediately?


I see:

  • 0 s: nothing relevant
  • 5 s: Apparently flaming object (5-10 pixels?) at the right edge of the screen, moving right to left.
  • 10 s: Brief brightening of the flames (~1s long).
  • 12 s: Disappears mostly from view
  • 13 s: Bright reflection on the clouds
  • 17 s: Rising fireball becomes visible
  • 27 s: Fireball has dissipated.

I interpret 5s as a temporary flare up of the in-flight fire.

13s is likely fine droplets or a portion of the fuel sprayed out by the main impact burning off quickly and brightly. We saw something relatively similar when the World Trade Center towers were hit.

17s is likely the remainder of fuel burning more slowly and dimly in a rising column.

I see nothing in there that looks like the very sudden, very high temperature (more yellow-white than orange-red) flash of high explosives. Personally, a missile is my leading suspicion, but it's crucial to keep an open mind, and consider one's own interpretation of the evidence critically.

DeltaMD90 wrote:
One thing is for certain, if Iran shot it down on accident, they definitely know.


I do not find this claim compelling, especially without any argument given in support of it. In a country where 200-300 people are reported to be executed by their judicial system each year, if an air defense unit made a mistake and killed 180 people, especially during a politically sensitive time for the nation's leadership, I question whether they would immediately confess and that their commanders would immediately transmit it up the chain of command.
 
Zaf
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:50 am

The one hour delay is the key to this case. Either a technical problem that already started at the ground / inbound flight or it was shot because at that time air defence didn't expect a flight.
 
arfbool
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:51 am

Are there any other causes for loss of ADS-B? For example, is the FR24 data crowd-sourced? Was there any other kind of interruption to their stream involving their equipment?
 
CPHGuard
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:52 am

lightsaber wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
That's how most uncontained engine failures look like. Everything going smooth until, suddenly, *bang*, there's a few more holes in your jet than you'd really like.


Usually the uncontained high energy failure doesn’t simultaneously cause loss of all electrical power, as indicated by the instantaneous loss of ADS-B. In fact, I can’t think of one. Think QF 32 or WN1380-a 737NG no less. I’d love to know how they determined it was an overheated engine and said engine caused an explosion.

I too know of no engine failure that causes loss of ADS-B. That would be a far more disastrous failure as there should be 4 other power sources to ADS-B (other engine generator, APU, RAT, and battery).

I even studied a dual engine loss and power was available for minutes afterward.

Lightsaber


Zeke explained how this could happen, earlier in this thread.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:53 am

Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.

In the history of aviation, only a small number of civil airliners were actually downed by missiles. It's an extremely rare occurence. Technical incidents, on the other hand, have caused thousands, probably ten thousands of fatal crashes.

People put a lot of stock in the fact that the crash coincided with military action by Iran. That's certainly notable, and it raises the relative merit of the missile theory. At the same time, let's not forget that in many places in the world, both current and historical, military tension and civil aviation exist side by side. In many places of in the Middle East, for instance, there is a constant possibility of bombing / missiles, and yet passenger planes land and depart all the time without being accidentally shot down. During the Cold War, tensions were often extreme and air strikes or missile assaults were something many countries reckoned with or prepared for, and yet airliners were almost never shot down (but came crashing down for other reasons all the time).


So then what's your response to Lightsaber's post? What sort of technical issue would throw out all electrical buses at once? We have never seen such a thing before.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:02 am

GE90man wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.

Absolutely incredible video. Amazing that the camera was not destroyed in the crash.

I can spot a chunk of the aircraft going forward at an insane speed, then followed by the fire. It's intriguing that all the small fires at the end look like a lot of small solid burning, not just liquid fuel. I suspect burning baggages.

Some were speculating it could’ve been a body. Absolutely horrifying to watch.

Look more like a mechanical part to me:
Image
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:09 am

Have any details from the passenger manifest leaked yet to know if there were any passengers of interest in one regard or another?
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:12 am

Interested wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
If it really was a technical fault, now it makes sense why Iran could so quickly claim that it was. Because they would've known they didn't shoot it.


They wouldn't have known if a terrorist or US had shot it or if a bomb had exploded though would they?

In fact at this stage they would be clueless as to the cause and would leave all options open

So I'm thinking the opposite to you. Immediately saying technical fault is suspicious and would be what they would say if they did know they shot it but wanted to cover that up


It is also possible that there were mayday call that has not been published yet. Maybe they know more than we do.
 
IADCA
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:13 am

WPIAeroGuy wrote:
IADCA wrote:
WPIAeroGuy wrote:

I could understand security services saying they didn’t have evidence of a missile attack, but it seems strange they would make the positive statement about the overheated engine. Are they spying on ITT gages now?


Some modern engines transmit data in nearly real-time to manufacturers and carriers, especially if they're on a power-by-the-hour model. If the CFM56s on this bird were so equipped, it wouldn't surprise me that much if a security service had a way to access the data feeds pretty quickly. A lot of ifs in there, but it's a possibility.


Good point, but even still it seems odd and inappropriate for a ‘security agency’ to make that kind claim, let alone multiple. Then again, could be a poor interpretation of technical jargon by the author.


Considering the political context and the reputation for hotheadedness on both sides of a potential conflict, I can see why they might leak something like that. Weird and unusual, but I could see it.
 
edmountain
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:19 am

ACCS300 wrote:
CBC News Network is pre-empting lots for programming for coverage of flight 752. 138 of the passengers were headed to Canada, 63 were Canadian citizens, a large number were university students and many others were high profile members of their respective local communities. Most Iranian-Canadians contribute deeply to Canada and many are doctors, engineers and the like so many of the victims were well known in Canada.

They are also interviewing many who were on the connecting flight from Kyiv to Toronto where there were 138 empty seats due to the crash of flight 752. One man in particular was distraught over the empty seat beside him as he knew it was one of the victims.

Canada has taken huge losses with ET 302 just 10 months ago and now this.

At least 30 victims from just Edmonton alone.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton ... -1.5418751
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:24 am

GE90man wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
noobjustafan wrote:
Sharing this video because I don’t see any references to it.

https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status ... 56610?s=21

Apparently a CCTV view of the crash area at impact (doesn’t show the plane trajectory however). Very harrowing.

Absolutely incredible video. Amazing that the camera was not destroyed in the crash.

I can spot a chunk of the aircraft going forward at an insane speed, then followed by the fire. It's intriguing that all the small fires at the end look like a lot of small solid burning, not just liquid fuel. I suspect burning baggages.

Some were speculating it could’ve been a body. Absolutely horrifying to watch.


In about 2 frames you can see the shape of a body flying fast away from the impact.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
seat1a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:30 am

Presume for a minute it's a missile. Isn't there a radar track of that, or some satellite proof of that track near the UIA 737?
 
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September11
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:32 am

I can’t believe this happened
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:36 am

michi wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
However a close pattern of multiple holes all with similar directions of travel would indicate a blast. I have seen my fair share of vehicles that have been hit by IED’s. Very similar pattern as what an air burst (proximity detonation) would do.


After a quick search it looks like that a SA-15 uses a warhead with a CR-Warhead (Continous Rod Warhead). This warhead does not produce shrapnel but a "ring of steel" cutting through the target.


It does produce some shrapnel. And if you look at the video of the aircraft falling out of the sky, it's shedding larger pieces on it's way down. I think it could still be the Tor M1 / SA-15 system.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:42 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
138 of the passengers were travelling on to Canada, confirmed by Trudeau

http://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-cr ... a-11904127


I have just seen the local evening news here in Toronto and it indeed is a sad evening, so many families devastated. 63 Canadians and a further 75 Iranians coming to study or visit. Even the passengers interviewed coming off the flight from Kiev to Toronto today felt the sadness even thought they had no connection to the Tehran flight or it's passengers.

I know many here have political bias, but please remember, these are real people with real families.

Every time I go to work a flight I am excited. It's for the experience of the people I will meet. I have been to London, Paris, Hong Kong, Delhi, Dubai etc. countless times and enjoy my time there, but getting there is half the fun. Meeting your passengers, inquiring about their journey and finding out about them is very rewarding and fulfilling. I love to hear when someone is coming to live in Canada, see their family, do business, or just a tourist and to offer them a welcome and some touristic, restaurant hints. I am very proud of my country Canada and the welcome it provides to people from around the world.

My thoughts are with the families. I may have never met their loved ones personally but I have met many like them.
 
AngelsDecay
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:50 am

Please accept my apologies if this is too much *over the top* but sometimes and due to the nature and sensitivity of the main event, we could take on consideration some lil details even if at first could do almost no sense... So here it goes, but I must emphasize this is only a very mere hipothesis... Some minutes before was schedule too depart IKA a flight which airline, an Iranian one, its called ATA...instead Ukraine took off almost the same schedule due to some delays.. As all of us know ATA was one of the most famous American airline with ops worldwide even for US Government... Could someone in a blink of ignorance and fully non updated with Iranian Civil aviation used this as a false target, if I explain myself? I repeat, this is not any kind of certainty... But made me stop a few seconds...
Deepest condolences to all friends and dearest ones... So sad... AD
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:55 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So then what's your response to Lightsaber's post? What sort of technical issue would throw out all electrical buses at once? We have never seen such a thing before.


I have answered it way back, people are obviously just reading the last page or 2 and then posting. The same questions are being asked over and again.
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:59 am

zeke wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
So then what's your response to Lightsaber's post? What sort of technical issue would throw out all electrical buses at once? We have never seen such a thing before.


I have answered it way back, people are obviously just reading the last page or 2 and then posting. The same questions are being asked over and again.


Thanks but you are not without your biases. We would have to set reality aside in a big way to actually think such scenario could occur.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:01 am

NonTechAvLover wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
NonTechAvLover wrote:

Not saying this necessarily happened, but one wonders whether the reality of the first attribute may have caused the imagination of the second.

Sorry can you elaborate? I did not quite understand what you meant here


Sorry, it was just a joke suggesting that the loveliness may have clouded your judgment to perceive intelligence. In any event, I do not claim to possess a universally accepted definition of intelligence (if there is one), but I met a lot of people who were not very informed, especially about parts of the world that are remote to them, but I thought were intelligent nonetheless (though Taliban ruling Iran is a bit rich).

I will go off topic here, but I think this has to be said just to remind ourselves what we may forget in the midst of distressing events or heated discussions. The Persian Empire (to which Iranians claim to be the heirs) was a superpower of its time (starting about 2,500 years ago) fighting the Greeks for supremacy over the then known world and while they eventually lost that fight to Alexander the Great, that land has been a center of culture and civilization for a very long time. I am sure there are many other examples, but if memory serves it was their famous 12th century poet Omar Khayyam, who was also an astronomer and mathematician, who was credited with being the first to solve a quadratic equation. The empires of present-day Iran and its peoples have made significant contributions to the world culture in many areas such as the law, literature, architecture, mathematics etc. etc. It is very sad to see the current situation of the country and the suffering of its people in recent history. Its current political predicament may have been the cause of a terrible aviation tragedy, but the consequences of that predicament go a lot wider and deeper than today's crash. I am staying away purposefully from discussing how much of that situation is their own doing and how much belongs to others and just commenting on the sadness of the situation. I hope the seemingly mild reaction from the WH today to a seemingly measured attack will be the beginning of a stop to the escalation of hostilities in a region that suffered more than its fair share of aggression and human suffering in recent decades and, maybe even the beginning of some sort of a process for the resolution of the underlying conflicts. I am not holding my breath for it, but I want to at least be able to hope.

Rgds,

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Reddevil556
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:09 am

JetBuddy wrote:
michi wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
However a close pattern of multiple holes all with similar directions of travel would indicate a blast. I have seen my fair share of vehicles that have been hit by IED’s. Very similar pattern as what an air burst (proximity detonation) would do.


After a quick search it looks like that a SA-15 uses a warhead with a CR-Warhead (Continous Rod Warhead). This warhead does not produce shrapnel but a "ring of steel" cutting through the target.


It does produce some shrapnel. And if you look at the video of the aircraft falling out of the sky, it's shedding larger pieces on it's way down. I think it could still be the Tor M1 / SA-15 system.


Furthermore there is a chance a missile could have struck an engine causing additional catastrophic damage. This is all still 100% hypothetical.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:09 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Thanks but you are not without your biases. We would have to set reality aside in a big way to actually think such scenario could occur.


There is no bias in my explanation on how transponders are changed routinely between sectors and the fact almost every airliner will only power #1 systems when in a degraded state.

If the crew were using #2 transponder they physically have to move a switch for #1 to transmit.

Same with radio panels, they may automatically shed everything except VHF1 and HF1 in a degraded state.
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heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:11 am

Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.

In the history of aviation, only a small number of civil airliners were actually downed by missiles. It's an extremely rare occurence. Technical incidents, on the other hand, have caused thousands, probably ten thousands of fatal crashes.

People put a lot of stock in the fact that the crash coincided with military action by Iran. That's certainly notable, and it raises the relative merit of the missile theory. At the same time, let's not forget that in many places in the world, both current and historical, military tension and civil aviation exist side by side. In many places of in the Middle East, for instance, there is a constant possibility of bombing / missiles, and yet passenger planes land and depart all the time without being accidentally shot down. During the Cold War, tensions were often extreme and air strikes or missile assaults were something many countries reckoned with or prepared for, and yet airliners were almost never shot down (but came crashing down for other reasons all the time).


And the fact that, as you said, that aircraft have been brought down by missiles.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:14 am

zeke wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Thanks but you are not without your biases. We would have to set reality aside in a big way to actually think such scenario could occur.


There is no bias in my explanation on how transponders are changed routinely between sectors and the fact almost every airliner will only power #1 systems when in a degraded state.

If the crew were using #2 transponder they physically have to move a switch for #1 to transmit.

Same with radio panels, they may automatically shed everything except VHF1 and HF1 in a degraded state.


I think we are focusing on different issues. I find the event of a complete electrical failure of every system to be highly improbable and bordering impossible. It's the same nonsense people were spouting when they initially speculated Germanwings 9525 crashed because of structural fatigue. It just doesn't happen. I find sinister causes such as pilot suicide or missile strike far more comforting than a mechanical or manufacturing issue. It's a one-off event that neither the airline or manufacturer could do anything about. Hoping there is a problem with a popular aircraft just bewilders me.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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rjsampson
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:16 am

zeke wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
So then what's your response to Lightsaber's post? What sort of technical issue would throw out all electrical buses at once? We have never seen such a thing before.


I have answered it way back, people are obviously just reading the last page or 2 and then posting. The same questions are being asked over and again.


OK, we need to make a gentleman's rule here:

I can't imagine how many of us have the time to read a thread of 800 posts that emerge within a couple of hours. Of course people go to the last few pages so, as someone else had pointed out that Zeke answered this question (and is familiar with where the answer is): Before posting as such, do the following:

Find the post where Zeke answered the question (since you've already read it). Right click on the post number, and select "copy link address". Then, post that link below "Zeke already answered that."

This may help.
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:18 am

Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.

In the history of aviation, only a small number of civil airliners were actually downed by missiles. It's an extremely rare occurence. Technical incidents, on the other hand, have caused thousands, probably ten thousands of fatal crashes.

People put a lot of stock in the fact that the crash coincided with military action by Iran. That's certainly notable, and it raises the relative merit of the missile theory. At the same time, let's not forget that in many places in the world, both current and historical, military tension and civil aviation exist side by side. In many places of in the Middle East, for instance, there is a constant possibility of bombing / missiles, and yet passenger planes land and depart all the time without being accidentally shot down. During the Cold War, tensions were often extreme and air strikes or missile assaults were something many countries reckoned with or prepared for, and yet airliners were almost never shot down (but came crashing down for other reasons all the time).


I disagree with your argument.

1. This happened just hours after Iran had retaliated against the Soleimani assasination by launching missiles into Iraq. At this point in time, the Iranians were on high alert, waiting for the American response. That means highly nervous soldiers manning anti-aircraft missile systems.

2. The aircraft flew outside of it's scheduled time. As far as I know, no civilian aircraft were supposed to be airborne during this period of time. This lends creedence to the missile theory.

3. Nobody is suggesting Iran deliberately shot down a civilian airliner. It was almost certainly an accident.

4. There is damage to the aircraft that could come from a radar proximity fuse warhead. If it was the "shotgun" type that produces shrapnel, it would fit with the damage seen. However, if it was a "continious-rod warhead", it also fits with the damage seen. Iran operates both BUK-M1 and Tor-M1 SAM systems.

5. The various videos available show larger, burning chunks of the aircraft seperating in air while the aircraft is falling towards the ground. If it was a "continious-rod warhead", that would make sense - because it chops the plane in various pieces. But clearly, the other type of warhead could cause damage to an aircraft so it disintegrates as well. Like with MH17 which was shot down by a BUK-M1.

6. If Iran shot it down by accident, they would likely never admit to it. Just as the Russians and MH17.

7. The data available shows that whatever happened, happened very quickly. This wasn't some slow developing fire or anything like that. It was very fast. As far as we know, the crew did not put out any Mayday or Pan-Pan.

So that leaves three options:

1. Accidentally shot down by missile.
2. Bomb detonated onboard aircraft.
3. Catastrophic failure of engines to such a degree that it instantly ruptures fuel tanks and sets the whole plane on fire within a split second.

.. at a time when Iranian anti-aircraft crews were on high alert and likely very nervous for an incoming American airstrike. During a time no CIVILIAN airliners were supposed to be in the sky in this area. The SAM operators would only expect military aircraft at this time. (In theory).
 
aden23
Posts: 45
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:30 am

Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.
.


The President of Iran literally threatened to blow up a plane less than 48 hours before a plane mysteriously exploded in Tehran. You think that’s just a coincidence?

In the United States we call that Probable Cause.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:35 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Thanks but you are not without your biases. We would have to set reality aside in a big way to actually think such scenario could occur.


Why would you even engage him in the discussion, when you are immediately disposed to dismiss him due to your bias that he is biased? You're wasting his and your time.
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:37 am

aden23 wrote:
Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.
.


The President of Iran literally threatened to blow up a plane less than 48 hours before a plane mysteriously exploded in Tehran. You think that’s just a coincidence?

In the United States we call that Probable Cause.

So he randomly blew up a *Ukrainian* aircraft with, according to all reports I've seen, *0 Americans*, flying not out of a terrorist country like the US but out of *their capital's airport*?

Come on people, use some common sense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The amount of crap in this thread is astounding.

So yes, "coincidence."
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:38 am

JetBuddy wrote:
So that leaves three options:

1. Accidentally shot down by missile.
2. Bomb detonated onboard aircraft.
3. Catastrophic failure of engines to such a degree that it instantly ruptures fuel tanks and sets the whole plane on fire within a split second.


No way it was #2

So that leaves 1 or 3. Could be #1. But it could also be #3. I posted about this earlier but I'll mention it again for anyone who missed it.

Is it possible that during the 1hr delay before takeoff, there was a mechanical fault with the engine for which an FAA approved component wasn’t available at IKA due to sanctions? Under stress of a possible US military strike and a rush to leave as soon as possible, mechanics at IKA replaced the faulty engine component with a defective Iranian made copy?
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
edmountain
Posts: 235
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 am

JetBuddy wrote:
...

2. The aircraft flew outside of it's scheduled time. As far as I know, no civilian aircraft were supposed to be airborne during this period of time. This lends creedence to the missile theory.

...

.. at a time when Iranian anti-aircraft crews were on high alert and likely very nervous for an incoming American airstrike. During a time no CIVILIAN airliners were supposed to be in the sky in this area. The SAM operators would only expect military aircraft at this time. (In theory).


Flightradar shows 6 flights departed IKA betwen 0500-0700h local and no fewer than 30 (thirty) flights departed between 0500-0630h local from THR. So there was lots of civilian traffic in the area.
Last edited by edmountain on Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
hamiltondaniel
Posts: 51
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 am

aden23 wrote:
Rara wrote:
The probability of a missile is still way overrated in this thread. Yes, it's a distinct possibility that the plane was shot down, but the likelyhood is far smaller than many here make it out to be.
.


The President of Iran literally threatened to blow up a plane less than 48 hours before a plane mysteriously exploded in Tehran. You think that’s just a coincidence?

In the United States we call that Probable Cause.


The beautiful thing about logic is that it works the same everywhere. Presidents of both Iran and the United States have made an unfortunate habit of spouting threats on Twitter, at each other and otherwise. By your logic we should take all of these threats seriously.

I'm not necessarily saying that's a bad idea, I'm just arguing for consistent application of standards.

For my part, I simply can't see any reason Iran would blow up a Ukrainian airliner, filled with Canadians, on purpose. Probable cause usually implies the suspect has some reason or motivation for doing so.
 
Kayenta
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:44 am

If this were an accident so short after maintenance....what the heck did they do to the engines while that was going on?!
 
schernov
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:45 am

 
flightwriter
Posts: 15
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:50 am

Is this scenario a possibility?

1) Aircraft departs IKA and begins normal climbout
2) Aircraft suffers a serious technical fault that results in loss of ADS-B data coming off the aircraft; however, it's still flying
3) Crew diverts north, away from the filed/expected route, to return to IKA
4) Air defense crews/systems, not expecting to see anything but a hostile aircraft in that area of the sky (and flying toward the airport) fires upon the aircraft, bringing it down
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:59 am

flightwriter wrote:
Is this scenario a possibility?

1) Aircraft departs IKA and begins normal climbout
2) Aircraft suffers a serious technical fault that results in loss of ADS-B data coming off the aircraft; however, it's still flying
3) Crew diverts north, away from the filed/expected route, to return to IKA
4) Air defense crews/systems, not expecting to see anything but a hostile aircraft in that area of the sky (and flying toward the airport) fires upon the aircraft, bringing it down


No worse of a hypothesis than any other so far.
 
flightwriter
Posts: 15
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:06 am

smokeybandit wrote:
flightwriter wrote:
Is this scenario a possibility?

1) Aircraft departs IKA and begins normal climbout
2) Aircraft suffers a serious technical fault that results in loss of ADS-B data coming off the aircraft; however, it's still flying
3) Crew diverts north, away from the filed/expected route, to return to IKA
4) Air defense crews/systems, not expecting to see anything but a hostile aircraft in that area of the sky (and flying toward the airport) fires upon the aircraft, bringing it down


No worse of a hypothesis than any other so far.


Thanks, and of course that's all it is at this point.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:08 am

flightwriter wrote:
Is this scenario a possibility?

1) Aircraft departs IKA and begins normal climbout
2) Aircraft suffers a serious technical fault that results in loss of ADS-B data coming off the aircraft; however, it's still flying
3) Crew diverts north, away from the filed/expected route, to return to IKA
4) Air defense crews/systems, not expecting to see anything but a hostile aircraft in that area of the sky (and flying toward the airport) fires upon the aircraft, bringing it down


If it was a simple engine fire that to SAM operators on the ground appeared as afterburners or missiles being launched, this actually makes more sense than any theory I have heard so far regarding the missile possibility or mistaken identity for a fighter plane (with afterburners). It would also explain why none of the 6 aircraft that took off before it were targeted. Assuming this scenario, what I wonder is how long they would've watched the plane before firing. If it was a shoot on sight command for aircraft that appear to be dropping missiles, I could see they would've done it on impulse. But if their SOP said to wait around 30sec before shooting, they would clearly have been able to tell it was in fact a civil aircraft in distress as the fire would have been sustained from the plane unlike missiles that shoot off. Given Trump's threat of 52 strikes, it is plausible they were expecting it.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:22 am, edited 4 times in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
schernov
Posts: 12
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:09 am

 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:14 am

Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:20 am

Personally, I believe that if there had been even the slightest possibility that Americans could have been blamed, Iran would have done so. The fact that they’re keeping this so close to the vest makes me think it was one of their ADA sites and someone screwed up.
 
TheWorm123
Posts: 272
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:22 am

There is a precedent for fluke shoot downs, while flights 655 and 007 were cases of mistaken identity but attacked with prejudice; flight 1812 was accidentally shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force over the Black Sea in 2001.

Joint Air training was going on in the area and a Ukrainian SAM was launched to target a drone however it’s drone was destroyed by another missile so it instead locked into to flight 1812 instead, a total fluke which no-one could have seen coming.
B752 B753 A332 A321 B738
 
NASBWI
Posts: 982
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:12 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:25 am

The latest CCTV video is difficult to watch, but I did notice something (and my apologies if this has been touched upon): the forward velocity at which debris is seen moving after impact would suggest a more shallow descent (albeit at high speed) into the ground.

I wonder if all control surfaces were rendered useless in the initial incident (catastrophic engine failure or projectile weaponry), or if perhaps the pilots had *some* control yet had insufficient altitude/time to recover. If the former, one could speculate that either:

- catastrophic failure caused engine components to rupture critical hydraulic lines a la UA 232; or
- projectile directly damaged/destroyed control surfaces.

If the latter, perhaps:
- had they had more altitude, they may have been able to level off and effectively troubleshoot
- be able to communicate their distress before impact, should control not be gained.
Fierce, Fabulous, and Flawless ;)
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:26 am

One big question.

The Reuters report said the US/Canada/Euro team said there was evidence of the engine overheating. How would they have gotten this evidence without access to the crash site? Do they have access to engine manufacturer live monitoring?
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
kennethP3
Posts: 43
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:30 am

heyjoojoo wrote:
Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655

The US Navy shoots down an Iranian airliner flying over Iranian territorial waters, and this was somehow Iran's fault?!

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