Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
ragots
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 5:53 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:33 am

It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.
Big loss for Iran here.
So I don't think this is foul play.
Some human error. A screw driver forgotten in the engine ?
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:37 am

ragots wrote:
Some human error. A screw driver forgotten in the engine ?


The problem with these types of theories is what sort of human error could cause this type of fire and how did it escalate so quickly that it fell out of the sky in a minute. Obviously not saying it’s impossible but it’s hard to connect the similarities to any other accident.
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:37 am

kennethP3 wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655

The US Navy shoots down an Iranian airliner flying over Iranian territorial waters, and this was somehow Iran's fault?!

All you have to do is read.

If Iranians *let* the civilian aircraft fly into harm's way, then they're just as blameworthy. This would further incriminate.
Last edited by heyjoojoo on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5009
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:38 am

sonicruiser wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
So that leaves three options:

1. Accidentally shot down by missile.
2. Bomb detonated onboard aircraft.
3. Catastrophic failure of engines to such a degree that it instantly ruptures fuel tanks and sets the whole plane on fire within a split second.


No way it was #2

So that leaves 1 or 3. Could be #1. But it could also be #3. I posted about this earlier but I'll mention it again for anyone who missed it.

Is it possible that during the 1hr delay before takeoff, there was a mechanical fault with the engine for which an FAA approved component wasn’t available at IKA due to sanctions? Under stress of a possible US military strike and a rush to leave as soon as possible, mechanics at IKA replaced the faulty engine component with a defective Iranian made copy?

airlines would never let a vendor use weird ass parts under any circumstance.
 
hpff
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:38 am

sonicruiser wrote:
1) Aircraft departs IKA and begins normal climbout
2) Aircraft suffers a serious technical fault that results in loss of ADS-B data coming off the aircraft; however, it's still flying
3) Crew diverts north, away from the filed/expected route, to return to IKA
4) Air defense crews/systems, not expecting to see anything but a hostile aircraft in that area of the sky (and flying toward the airport) fires upon the aircraft, bringing it down


If something so serious happened that the ADS-B data cut off, which is an exceptionally rare occurrence, it is significantly more likely whatever caused the ADS-B data to be cut off is the cause of the subsequent impact.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:46 am

heyjoojoo wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655

The US Navy shoots down an Iranian airliner flying over Iranian territorial waters, and this was somehow Iran's fault?!

All you have to do is read.

If Iranians *let* the civilian aircraft fly into harm's way, then they're just as blameworthy. This would further incriminate.

Unbelievable stuff. If you let your kid walk around your backyard and I misidentify him as a robber and shoot him, you are just as blameworthy as I am? Okay then.
 
User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 908
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:55 am

ragots wrote:
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.


"So called?" The difference between a born citizen and a naturalized citizen is the latter actually had to make an affirmative choice to belong.
 
axiom
Posts: 901
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:59 am

NameOmitted wrote:
ragots wrote:
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.


"So called?" The difference between a born citizen and a naturalized citizen is the latter actually had to make an affirmative choice to belong.


Yes, quite a problematic comment. They are Canadian. Period.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:01 am

heyjoojoo wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655

The US Navy shoots down an Iranian airliner flying over Iranian territorial waters, and this was somehow Iran's fault?!

All you have to do is read.

If Iranians *let* the civilian aircraft fly into harm's way, then they're just as blameworthy. This would further incriminate.

Sure. But just like 80% of the theories in this thread, does doing this make any sort of logical sense? Would Iranian leadership, even with all their flaws, sign off on such an asinine plan? Not impossible, but I'd bet my life's savings that not in a million years would they do that

And trust me, I'm far from a fan of the Iranian leadership, they do plenty stupid. But the things being suggested in this thread (regarding the Iranian government, the US government, and even Russia's and China's) is absolutely ridiculous

Edit: perhaps I misread your post and are saying they may be irresponsible for letting the airliner fly in an area with a heightened air defense posture? If so, I could agree with that and my apologies
 
User avatar
SQ32
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:27 am

Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down: Canadian source

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z72Q7

...as I have predicted.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15173
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:34 am

sonicruiser wrote:
One big question.

The Reuters report said the US/Canada/Euro team said there was evidence of the engine overheating. How would they have gotten this evidence without access to the crash site? Do they have access to engine manufacturer live monitoring?



To be clear the Reuter’s article stated

“But five security sources - three Americans, one European and one Canadian - who asked not to be named, told Reuters the initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile. There was evidence one of the jet’s engines had overheated, the Canadian source said.”
He
From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z70EL

There is two parts to the engine essentially, the part where the air flows through, and an over temperature in that area we would call an exhaust gas temperature exceedance. The other type of over temperature we would call an engine fire, that is in the are between where the air flows and the outer cowl. That is the area the fire loops are located. The loops work by either burn through or by a break.

How would they know this, it is possible for aircraft to transmit faults via acars, it would be reasonable to assume that that they have an inferred capable satellite over the area that would see any missile plumes and would also see what was in the video from the ground.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
aryonoco
Posts: 681
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:51 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:44 am

My initial thought was that this was brought down by a missile, probably an error by a trigger happy Iranian AA.

Reading the Reuters report though, I'm inclined to discount that possibility. Western intelligence services are able to tell when a missile is launched. There would have been heavy spy satellite coverage of Iran in that period due to tensions with the US. After MH17, they came very quickly and said that there was a missile involved. The fact that not one, not two, but FIVE different western intelligence services are saying that the plane has not been brought down by a missile means we should not put much stock into hypotheses involving missiles.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:49 am

SQ32 wrote:
Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down: Canadian source

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z72Q7

...as I have predicted.

This has already been discussed. "Intelligence agencies..." who? This is a piece of evidence, but it's not particularly strong. Now if they actually name agencies like the CIA or something, that would mean a lot more. But it's so vague

I've seen news sources refer to us a.netters as aviation experts. I'm pretty skeptical of the vagueness of what they're describing. Don't forget, the actual Ukrainian Embassy put out a statement and then retracted it. I think I'll believe this more when these actual "sources" put out something more official
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:59 am

NASBWI wrote:
...

- catastrophic failure caused engine components to rupture critical hydraulic lines a la UA 232; or
- projectile directly damaged/destroyed control surfaces.

If the latter, perhaps:
- had they had more altitude, they may have been able to level off and effectively troubleshoot
- be able to communicate their distress before impact, should control not be gained.


From the photos uploaded to twitter showing shrapnel damage consistent with a TOR-M1 SAM, the 'projectile' is more likely an explosive thing that scatters smaller fragments to maximize damage:

https://twitter.com/intelicorn/status/1 ... 12/photo/1

Any accident investigators out there with an opinion on a fuselage fire from a center fuel tank explosion from shrapnel, but somehow the wings are still intact (or at least one of them)?

EDIT: A heat seeking SAM would theoretically seek one of the engines of the two available on the 737. Therefore the fuselage would be between the missile and the engine and wing on the far side, protecting from shrapnel damage.
Last edited by sgrow787 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:01 am

CBC Report on the victims. That was difficult to watch. Not gonna lie, I shed some tears seeing what happened to those families. I know many Iranians personally and feel devastated for what their close knit community is enduring. 138 people on that plane were heading to Canada. Families have been torn apart. 1% of Edmonton's entire Iranian-Canadian population died in this crash. May God have mercy on them all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g_98p6YY8I
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
zitterbewegung
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:10 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:04 am

JetBuddy wrote:
So that leaves three options:

1. Accidentally shot down by missile.
2. Bomb detonated onboard aircraft.
3. Catastrophic failure of engines to such a degree that it instantly ruptures fuel tanks and sets the whole plane on fire within a split second.

.. at a time when Iranian anti-aircraft crews were on high alert and likely very nervous for an incoming American airstrike. During a time no CIVILIAN airliners were supposed to be in the sky in this area. The SAM operators would only expect military aircraft at this time. (In theory).


What if option 1 is not a missile, but AA gunfire (like KS-19 or S-60, both operated by Iran)? Here are the reasons, that make me think this may be more probable:
1) I think it is easier to accidentally fire the gun, without intending to down a plane.
2) The fragmentation shell pattern is more random and may explain the multiple punctures on the fuselage (if the pictures really show them).
3) The altitude of the impact (8000 ft) is completely within the range of the mentioned AA guns.
In addition, all of Iran's AA missile defenses were probably defending targets with higher military value and the defense of the international airport (low priority for political reasons) may have been assigned to AA batteries.
Here is a possible scenario:
All the AA crews are at high tension expecting US counterstrikes. The AA guns are loaded. An AA battery usually is guided by a targeting radar; the guns follow the target automatically, but each is fired manually by the #1 gunner. The radar operator decides to track a civilian plane for practice (or may be ordered to do so). This may have been done before with unloaded guns. The gunner either forgets that the gun is loaded and pushes the trigger pedal, or does this accidentally.
I am no expert, so this scenario can be completely stupid.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3573
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:28 am

sgrow787 wrote:
From the photos uploaded to twitter showing shrapnel damage consistent with a TOR-M1 SAM, the 'projectile' is more likely an explosive thing that scatters smaller fragments to maximize damage:


The "holes" in the wing and fuselage are rocks. AVherald has a much higher quality version of the same fuselage piece from your twitter link and there are no holes.

There *are* holes in the engine cowling, however they are pushed outward, suggesting that parts from inside the engine caused them. That doesn't rule out a missile, but it doesn't rule out uncontained engine failure either.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 401
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:24 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:29 am

ragots wrote:
It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.


Um, no. Naturalized Canadians are Canadians too. Even if they're from Eye-ran.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:31 am

spacecadet wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
From the photos uploaded to twitter showing shrapnel damage consistent with a TOR-M1 SAM, the 'projectile' is more likely an explosive thing that scatters smaller fragments to maximize damage:


The "holes" in the wing and fuselage are rocks. AVherald has a much higher quality version of the same fuselage piece from your twitter link and there are no holes.

There *are* holes in the engine cowling, however they are pushed outward, suggesting that parts from inside the engine caused them. That doesn't rule out a missile, but it doesn't rule out uncontained engine failure either.


You've inspected the entire fuselage and can verify no holes? Well that settle it then.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5417
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:32 am

As per the latest update of the Aviation Herald, it seems the AIB has asked the Ukrainian authorities to assist with the investigation and Ukraine is dispatching experts to Iran.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0

Hopefully the Ukrainians are given enough access to formulate their own conclusions.
There is still no word as to what will be done with the flight recorders.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:38 am

Given that 737s rarely spontaneously combust into a fireball, I'm still leaning toward a heat seeking missile from a MANPAD.

I believe the reports of an engine overheating could be the result of the missile striking the engine and ACARS possible sending out an instantaneous spike in EGT as a result.

I can't quite grasp how an aircraft goes from an over heated engine, to a fire ball to a billion pieces in a very short period of time.

I also don't buy the air turn back scenario. At the time of the first video the aircraft is not under any control. It's a spiral possible causes by damage to the wing either primary or secondary to an explosive detonation.

MANPADS are quite common throughout the area. It wasnt too long ago that a spent decide was found not a million miles from Cairo airport. It's not unreasonable to expect there to be many left over in Iran from armed conflict in neighbouring countries over the years.
Last edited by sevenair on Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:38 am

What do we make of the weird statement by the airline that they had been using Teheran as a place to train on emergency procedures because it's a difficult airport? And what do we make of the 12,000 hour captain and 12,000 hour instructor pilot and the 7000 hour first officer all being in the cockpit together? Are they implying that they were conducting some sort of training exercise with this particular crew? Is the IP just there as a check Airman? Or is there some other scenario that arises from this cockpit makeup? If this was a loss of control accident, it might be more interesting, but I can't see how any training procedure would cause an engine fire and crash. Still, it is an interesting thing to find out. It's also interesting to see how non-US airlines express concepts and make statements so different than ones we would accept. For example, the airline saying that it is impossible that the pilots made any mistakes because they are so experienced. You wouldn't hear that here.
 
2175301
Posts: 1899
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:39 am

flybucky wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I have seen no such claims by western intelligence. Can you provide such a link?

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source. The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction."
https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-cr ... SL1N29D1DU


I don't buy that at all. No normal commercial security service will ever hear a tweet of what the real intelligence agencies have on the details of this event - and the announcement is way to soon as it's unlikely that the intelligence agencies even know what data they really have at this point. I saw a news item saying the CIA was looking at their data... which makes sense.

A reality is a lot of intelligence is recorded and only reviewed later (often weeks to months later). In this case, the intelligence agencies will have to access the readily retrievable stored data and review it. Something that in many cases take time (day + is typical). Some of the best intelligence may be from local sources that are only periodically accessed for their data (and perhaps only accessed manually as they do not transmit at all to keep their presence secret). It may be months before that information is available.

Review of known past intelligent operations that have been leaked or declassified involves many known cases of local gathering devices that were only accessed every 4-6 months to get their recorded data (which in certain cases was known to contain actual phone conversations between military base commanders and the Russian Military headquarters, etc). Russia actually has one of these US espionage data collection devices in their "espionage museum" after they were clued in by a double agent that they existed and then went looking for it - and found it.

To restate - I do not believe that the real intelligence agencies would tell some private security company what they had, and so fast. This sounds like a false story to me.

Have a great day,
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:41 am

ragots wrote:
It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.
Big loss for Iran here.


Not only that, but the US travel ban severely limited options for Iranian-Canadians looking to travel on a budget. Flights out of Toronto can be very expensive, many Iranian-Canadians in the GTA frequently drove into the US and flew out of various US airports for more affordable flights. After the travel ban, that was no longer an option, forcing many Iranian-Canadians to look for the limited remaining options. This resulted in an unusually high number of Iranian-Canadians that would normally have flown out of the US to transit via other affordable alternatives such as Ukraine.

Although the plane was Ukranian, many of the victims were Iranian. I think this accident should call a review of US sanctions on Iranian aviation. Barring safety critical parts is morally reprehensible and we should not wait for another tragedy to occur and take more lives irrespective of if this crash had anything to do with it.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:46 am

wjcandee wrote:
What do we make of the weird statement by the airline that they had been using Teheran as a place to train on emergency procedures because it's a difficult airport? And what do we make of the 12,000 hour captain and 12,000 hour instructor pilot and the 7000 hour first officer all being in the cockpit together? Are they implying that they were conducting some sort of training exercise with this particular crew? Is the IP just there as a check Airman? Or is there some other scenario that arises from this cockpit makeup? If this was a loss of control accident, it might be more interesting, but I can't see how any training procedure would cause an engine fire and crash. Still, it is an interesting thing to find out. It's also interesting to see how non-US airlines express concepts and make statements so different than ones we would accept. For example, the airline saying that it is impossible that the pilots made any mistakes because they are so experienced. You wouldn't hear that here.


I'm thinking that something has been lost in translation and they're meaning that the training is a route qualification. Some places you can do this in the SIM and some plaxes require actual flights with a trainer.

Regular line flights are not used (in my outfit anyway) for command evaluation or emergency training. That's what the SIM is for.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:55 am

spacecadet wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
From the photos uploaded to twitter showing shrapnel damage consistent with a TOR-M1 SAM, the 'projectile' is more likely an explosive thing that scatters smaller fragments to maximize damage:


The "holes" in the wing and fuselage are rocks. AVherald has a much higher quality version of the same fuselage piece from your twitter link and there are no holes.

There *are* holes in the engine cowling, however they are pushed outward, suggesting that parts from inside the engine caused them. That doesn't rule out a missile, but it doesn't rule out uncontained engine failure either.


I should make you fork up the links before wasting time, but...

Some oddly shaped rocks on the wing:
https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status ... 04/photo/4

The hole in the tail fin is definitely not a rock. The light hitting one edge of the hole, and we know where the Sun is in the photo. If it was a rock, the light would be in front of the dark blob:
https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status ... 04/photo/3
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
Akwagon
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:59 am

-Is it possible to have such a massive uncontained engine failure “explode” like this. Sending shrapnel into the wing? (Much greater event then southwest and not to speculate bad maintenance, Boeing issue, sabotage, or anyone’s “fault”, etc)

- if were to happen and shrapnel through the wing/fuel tank could this cause an instant Catastrophic explosion of the wing?
Last edited by Akwagon on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
dc863
Posts: 1481
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 10:52 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:05 am

sevenair wrote:
Given that 737s rarely spontaneously combust into a fireball, I'm still leaning toward a heat seeking missile from a MANPAD.

.




Indeed. My best guess is that a missile was accidentally fired at a plane which was an hour late. Flying at 8,000 ft the missileer mistakenly thought the aircraft was an enemy plane. This makes more sense considering the extremely high tensions that continue to surround the region that some individuals got nervous and made a tragic error.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1248
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 am

Spacepope wrote:
ragots wrote:
It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.
Big loss for Iran here.
So I don't think this is foul play.
Some human error. A screw driver forgotten in the engine ?


As a response to your first ever a.net post: you are human garbage. Delete your account.


I reported this post, but on further thought, I will give you a little benefit of a doubt.

While it is still inexcusable to call a person human garbage, perhaps you read the comment as suggesting it didn't matter that they died because they are Iranians. I think you should re-read the comment, as I believe the prior poster intended to argue that it does not make sense for the crash to have been any sort of Iranian conspiracy, given how many people born in Iran were victims of the crash.
 
majano
Posts: 277
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:28 am

spacecadet wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
From the photos uploaded to twitter showing shrapnel damage consistent with a TOR-M1 SAM, the 'projectile' is more likely an explosive thing that scatters smaller fragments to maximize damage:


The "holes" in the wing and fuselage are rocks. AVherald has a much higher quality version of the same fuselage piece from your twitter link and there are no holes.

There *are* holes in the engine cowling, however they are pushed outward, suggesting that parts from inside the engine caused them. That doesn't rule out a missile, but it doesn't rule out uncontained engine failure either.

I agree with view and wish to add that I cannot believe that there is someone still peddling the theory that the "holes" on the aircraft structures are some sort of evidence of shrapnel form a missile.
1. Some of the holes are on the top of the horizontal stabilizer, some are on the burnt side of the plane and other on the unburnt side.
2. Looking at the latest video from what is said to be a CCTV camera, one can seen a large quantity of debris from the ground being flung by the velocity just before ground impact.
3. Photographs of the ground itself show a lot of gravel stone around the crash site.
4. The direction of the rudder damage.
All of these factors seem to point to some of the holes being a result of the impact with the ground itself.
 
User avatar
Istanbuler83
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:30 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:31 am

sonicruiser wrote:
ragots wrote:
It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.
Big loss for Iran here.


Not only that, but the US travel ban severely limited options for Iranian-Canadians looking to travel on a budget. Flights out of Toronto can be very expensive, many Iranian-Canadians in the GTA frequently drove into the US and flew out of various US airports for more affordable flights. After the travel ban, that was no longer an option, forcing many Iranian-Canadians to look for the limited remaining options. This resulted in an unusually high number of Iranian-Canadians that would normally have flown out of the US to transit via other affordable alternatives such as Ukraine.

Although the plane was Ukranian, many of the victims were Iranian. I think this accident should call a review of US sanctions on Iranian aviation. Barring safety critical parts is morally reprehensible and we should not wait for another tragedy to occur and take more lives irrespective of if this crash had anything to do with it.


Especially after watching their stories, most of them do not look like fans of Iranian regime, but people who were pushed to leave Iran because of the regime. So, it is more than important to discuss the role of US sanctions on Iranian aviation. Do those sanctions really weaken the regime?
Istanbuler83
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:44 am

Francoflier wrote:
As per the latest update of the Aviation Herald, it seems the AIB has asked the Ukrainian authorities to assist with the investigation and Ukraine is dispatching experts to Iran.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0

Hopefully the Ukrainians are given enough access to formulate their own conclusions.
There is still no word as to what will be done with the flight recorders.


If you think about it, Ukraine likely has experience and expertise on what is and isn't evidence of a shoot down incident due to MH17 crashing in their country. I actually trust they can give us answers.

sevenair wrote:
Given that 737s rarely spontaneously combust into a fireball, I'm still leaning toward a heat seeking missile from a MANPAD.

I believe the reports of an engine overheating could be the result of the missile striking the engine and ACARS possible sending out an instantaneous spike in EGT as a result.

I can't quite grasp how an aircraft goes from an over heated engine, to a fire ball to a billion pieces in a very short period of time.

I also don't buy the air turn back scenario. At the time of the first video the aircraft is not under any control. It's a spiral possible causes by damage to the wing either primary or secondary to an explosive detonation.

MANPADS are quite common throughout the area. It wasnt too long ago that a spent decide was found not a million miles from Cairo airport. It's not unreasonable to expect there to be many left over in Iran from armed conflict in neighbouring countries over the years.


"Engine overheating", as has been mentioned by others, may very well have a heat signature that might look like an incoming missile/drone/hostile aircraft. It's possible both the mechanical failure and missile happened. However I have no idea if they would appear similar, and no idea if those who would know are allowed to tell us that.

As someone also mentioned, focusing on a technical fault might be ideal for de-escalating tensions. On the other hand, I'd also think accidental loss of civilian lives who are citizens of neutral countries due to high tensions in the area might also break a cycle of escalation.

In any case, as I started off with, If Ukraine makes a determination on whether or not a weapon was involved, I'll trust it.
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:45 am

dc863 wrote:
Indeed. My best guess is that a missile was accidentally fired at a plane which was an hour late. Flying at 8,000 ft the missileer mistakenly thought the aircraft was an enemy plane. This makes more sense considering the extremely high tensions that continue to surround the region that some individuals got nervous and made a tragic error.


At that altitude near a major international airport, I find it difficult to think this was a triggered Iranian AA. Regardless of how high tensions were, their most experienced operators would've been guarding Tehran, and Iran would've known the critical importance of not mistaking a civilian aircraft, better than most countries, after being the victim of IR655. 6 flights took off from IKA after the strike and at least 30 from THR so it was not a quiet night over Tehran. That is a whopping 36 civilian flights before PS752 that departed Tehran without incident, so that is practically 36 civilian flights they did not mistake for enemy aircraft. Given that there is >90% chance that the SAM site they flew over was the closest one to IKA with active commercial traffic, I have to assume that shooting anything from that site would have been an extreme last resort option due the extraordinarily high risk of hitting a commercial aircraft from that particular area compared to some random low risk AA in the desert. I think a lot of people assume Iranian air defenses to be worse than they actually are. They are a professional force, that close to the airport, they would have triple checked and maybe quadruple checked what they were looking at. And even if they did think it was a military aircraft, since they were so close to IKA, they may have decided not to risk it and let it fly away since it was heading away from Tehran. Frankly, at an AA site that close to IKA, there is no way they would not have some very accurate radar or info on flightpaths of aircraft departing in real time. The AA site may have even had direct contact with the tower given the heightened tensions or have had people directly watching departing aircraft takeoff from IKA with binoculars to distinguish airliners visually. Additionally, as ridiculous as it sounds, the fact that Iran didn't close their airspace leads me to believe that Iran themselves may not have had any reason to believe an imminent retaliation was coming. If reports of a backroom deal where Iran gave advance warning to the US about striking bases is true, allowing evacuation of troops resulting in zero US or Iraqi casualties, there may have been some tacit acknowledgement that the US would not retaliate resulting in Iran not being on as heightened of an alert as initially suggested. If there was a real threat from reports of enemy aircraft approaching from the south, Iran would have closed their airspace in time before those enemy aircraft would reach the far north of the country. As all civil aircraft would have been grounded with advance warning from the south, military aircraft would have been isolated and no commercial flights would have been at risk.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:50 am

I don't buy the 'engine parts needed to be replaced in Tehran, there are sanctions therefore a fake part was used, this led to the disasters and oh what a terrible man Trump is".

Since when did replacing an engine part only cause a one hour delay? By the time you open the things up, locate your part, remove it, replace it, close it all back up then sign off the paperwork, you're looking at a lot of time, even if we assume they started working on the engine the minute it reached the stand on arrival. I base this on it being a major part capable of complete and utter devastation of the engine, loss of control, inflight break up and a complete loss. This must have been some major engine part and not a simple oil filter change.

It's a good half hour just to get a top up of oil. It's an hour to check for bird ingestion.

UIA are a good operator from what I can tell. I can't imagine they'd be happy to fit their plane with suspected fake parts and would cancel a flight and replace the aircraft. Or they FedEx in a spare part which as a non Iranian airlines they will be permitted to do and won't be subject to sanctions.
Last edited by sevenair on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:02 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:55 am

sonicruiser wrote:
dc863 wrote:
Indeed. My best guess is that a missile was accidentally fired at a plane which was an hour late. Flying at 8,000 ft the missileer mistakenly thought the aircraft was an enemy plane. This makes more sense considering the extremely high tensions that continue to surround the region that some individuals got nervous and made a tragic error.


At that altitude near a major international airport, I find it difficult to think this was a triggered Iranian AA. Regardless of how high tensions were, their most experienced operators would've been guarding Tehran, and Iran would've known the critical importance of not mistaking a civilian aircraft, better than most countries, after being the victim of IR655. 6 flights took off from IKA after the strike and at least 30 from THR so it was not a quiet night over Tehran. That is at least 36 civilian flights before PS752 that departed Tehran without incident, so that is practically 36 civilian flights they did not mistake for enemy aircraft. Given that there is >90% chance that the SAM site they flew over was the closest one to IKA with active commercial traffic, I have to assume that shooting anything from that site would have been an extreme last resort option due the extraordinarily high risk of hitting a commercial aircraft from that particular area compared to some random low risk AA in the desert. I think a lot of people assume Iranian air defenses to be worse than they actually are. They are a professional force, that close to the airport, they would have triple checked and maybe quadruple checked what they were looking at. And even if they did think it was a military aircraft, since they were so close to IKA, they may have decided not to risk it and let it fly away since it was heading away from Tehran. Frankly, at an AA site that close to IKA, there is no way they would not have some very accurate radar or info on flightpaths of aircraft departing in real time. The AA site may have even had direct contact with the tower given the heightened tensions or have had people directly watching departing aircraft takeoff from IKA with binoculars to distinguish airliners visually. Additionally, as ridiculous as it sounds, the fact that Iran didn't close their airspace leads me to believe that Iran themselves may not have had any reason to believe an imminent retaliation was coming. If reports of a backroom deal where Iran gave advance warning to the US about striking bases is true, allowing evacuation of troops resulting in zero US or Iraqi casualties, there may have been some tacit acknowledgement that the US would not retaliate resulting in Iran not being on as heightened of an alert as initially suggested. If there was a real threat from reports of enemy aircraft approaching from the south, Iran would have closed their airspace in time before those enemy aircraft would reach the far north of the country. As all civil aircraft would have been grounded with advance warning from the south, military aircraft would have been isolated and no commercial flights would have been at risk.


You seem to be focused on everything happening in a perfect world. There should never be a case of a cop shooting an innocent person but it happens all too often. I don't know why you would think Iranian military would be incapable of mistakes. Especially on a day when they are expecting a US response after attacking their bases.
 
brocky120
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:54 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:07 am

Always hard to tell, but from the CCTV footage, I’m fairly certain the cockpit looked intact upon impact. Obviously can’t see detail but seems to be complete and no large chunks missing etc.

Possible landing gear flying forward at the beginning?
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 am

brocky120 wrote:
Always hard to tell, but from the CCTV footage, I’m fairly certain the cockpit looked intact upon impact. Obviously can’t see detail but seems to be complete and no large chunks missing etc.

Possible landing gear flying forward at the beginning?


You can make out the cockpit?
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:15 am

Spacepope wrote:
ragots wrote:
It's a cheap flight operated by a Ukranian company from Tehran to Canada but with a stop in Kiev.
This flight is very popular with Iranians Canadians going to see family in Iran
And the 73 so called Canadians are in fact Iranian born naturalized Canadians living in Canada.
So basically, you could say it's all Iranians on board, plus the Ukranian crew.
Big loss for Iran here.
So I don't think this is foul play.
Some human error. A screw driver forgotten in the engine ?


As a response to your first ever a.net post: you are human garbage. Delete your account.


I saw this before and ignored it, and thought more about it. Both times I read it, I thought the fundamental point was that because a lot of these folks were expats or folks who moved permanently away (and it later turned out that many were students at Canadian colleges returning after winter break), that this was an even bigger loss for Iran. I actually saw it as a sympathetic comment.

But sometimes I unreasonably see the best in things...
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:20 am

Simply tragic. Seeing the videos and photos of the passengers' personal belongings such as pictures really strikes the soul. It's so saddening.

As for the crash, my one hope is that the truth will be known. But I do not hold that hope highly. I worry that we will never have closure.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:20 am

sonicruiser wrote:
I think this accident should call a review of US sanctions on Iranian aviation. Barring safety critical parts is morally reprehensible and we should not wait for another tragedy to occur and take more lives irrespective of if this crash had anything to do with it.


If the Ukrainian aircraft went tech in Teheran, there's no restriction on that airline obtaining a genuine part and forwarding it to Iran for installation.

The inbound flight was on-time, and there was a planned 4.5-hour layover, so it is conceivable that some significant work began immediately on the aircraft which took an extra hour to complete, i.e. it landed with a fault indication that had to be addressed. This is important, because I agree that nothing more significant than changing an oil filter or topping off the oil is gonna get accomplished in an hour. But with 5.5 hours, maybe they were doing something significant. It really all depends upon whether it landed with a fault indication or whether that appeared when they were pre-flighting it or after. Regardless, it seems like a very-remote possibility that a significant international carrier would half-ass a repair with an unapproved part. These guys have 25 737s, mostly -800s, 4 767s and 3 777s. It doesn't have a reputation as a rinky-dink operation.
Last edited by wjcandee on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
brocky120
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:54 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:21 am

sevenair wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
Always hard to tell, but from the CCTV footage, I’m fairly certain the cockpit looked intact upon impact. Obviously can’t see detail but seems to be complete and no large chunks missing etc.

Possible landing gear flying forward at the beginning?


You can make out the cockpit?


If you watch the CCTV, just as it impacts, there are 2 frames with what I believe is the cockpit yes
 
xwb777
Posts: 919
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:35 am

Wreckage of a missile has been found in Iran which is believed to be from the missile that was used to shot down the plane. It has been found below the impact area of the Ukrainian B737.

Tbh, i don’t know how to add photos to the forum
 
Fuling
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:41 am

xwb777 wrote:
Wreckage of a missile has been found in Iran which is believed to be from the missile that was used to shot down the plane. It has been found below the impact area of the Ukrainian B737.

Tbh, i don’t know how to add photos to the forum


Any link to them instead?
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 401
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:24 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:41 am

Jouhou wrote:

If you think about it, Ukraine likely has experience and expertise on what is and isn't evidence of a shoot down incident due to MH17 crashing in their country. I actually trust they can give us answers.


I'm surprised no one has (from what I've seen) brought up the experience of the Siberia Airlines plane shot down by an errant Ukrainian missile over the Black Sea shortly after 9/11.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:42 am

xwb777 wrote:
Wreckage of a missile has been found in Iran which is believed to be from the missile that was used to shot down the plane. It has been found below the impact area of the Ukrainian B737.

Tbh, i don’t know how to add photos to the forum


A picture was posted earlier in this thread, but no confirmation or evidence of whether or not it was taken at the crash site.

SurlyBonds wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

If you think about it, Ukraine likely has experience and expertise on what is and isn't evidence of a shoot down incident due to MH17 crashing in their country. I actually trust they can give us answers.


I'm surprised no one has (from what I've seen) brought up the experience of the Siberia Airlines plane shot down by an errant Ukrainian missile over the Black Sea shortly after 9/11.


Honestly, my head categorizes old Ukraine and current Ukraine as two different entities entirely regardless of whether they'd have the same investigators involved. Also someone did bring it up, but not as a matter of Ukraine's expertise.
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
情報
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4155
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:43 am

xwb777 wrote:
Wreckage of a missile has been found in Iran which is believed to be from the missile that was used to shot down the plane. It has been found below the impact area of the Ukrainian B737.

Tbh, i don’t know how to add photos to the forum

Yesterday several pictures of a rocket head have been posted in this thread. I guess you are referring to the same pictures?
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:05 am

Pavlakakos wrote:
This is just a rumor and i just wanted to share with you. The mother of a flight attendant said she received a phone call from her daughter saying machine guns were being fired in the cabin and then the connection ended.
The stewardess was from the city of Nova Kakhovka and was my wife's classmate. Don't know if the rumor stands, however i guess we'll soon find out. If there was indeed gunfire, the Iranians will be quick to reveal that info, in order to clear themselves from the missile theory.


Since at this stage we all operate on very noisy and unreliable data, we should really talk in probabilities (and understand them as well -- unlike the media that blamed Nate Silver for assigning Trump "only" 30% probability to win).

So back to the topic.

I'd say that machine gun fire inside the cabin has about 0.1% probability to down the airliner in the manner we have seen (and on the data we can reasonably trust). First, the pilots would probably notify ATC or at least change the transponder code (hijacking). Second, I don't know about security in Tehran airport, but Tehran itself is not a war zone, it is not Baghdad, not even a typical US inner city overflown with guns. So someone bringing a machine gun onto an airplane is basically unbelievable.

Now, to divide the rest 99.9%, IMHO.

0.9% intentional downing by a state actor, either Iran or US (fully aware that it is passenger airplane)
19% intentional downing by a MANPADS, operated by some kind of guerilla or rogue force inside Iran
50% of iran making a tragic mistake with nervous and trigger-happy air defences which expected massive retaliation after hitting US bases with missiles
20% uncontained engine failure or other technical fault
20% some kind of unplanned accidental interference with US or Iran military operation (collision with the US drone, unfortunate collateral damage in legitimate Iran action to shoot down existing US aircraft or drone, etc).

I have assigned highest probability to iran's tragic mistake due to Iran being very tame about this incident and claiming basically immediately that it was not downed by a missile. Please note the usual fiery rhetoric from Iran about USA and the West in general (the great Satan etc.) Claiming that it wasn't a missile basically when aircraft barely touched the ground reveals that they know more than they are saying and the tame reaction basically means that they feel at least partly responsible for the downing - or they are sure there were no missiles in vicinity, therefore technical fault. MANPADS or any organized guerilla force in such close vicinity of Tehran airport and indeed urban city itself would be also a massive humiliation to Iran, so that would probably met with subdued silence as well.

Otherwise they would be screaming all over, after all there were two busloads of Iranians on that plane!

Note (0.9% still means that the outcome is possible... but very unlikely, lesson Nate Silver and Trump election).
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:15 am

aden23 wrote:
No one here seems to have mentioned that 2 days ago, Iran’s president threatened to blow up a plane similar to the Lockerbie bombing.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/


Are you serious? Plane departing from their own airport with their own citizens on board?
 
zhetenyi1973
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:08 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:16 am

This discussion reminds me of the germanwings accident where someone threw in the pilot suicide scenario early on.
Needless to say, it was vehemently denied while the scenario perfectly fit the data.

I think this happens again here. People are too optimistic. Currently, the missile hit is the
most probable scenario but people repeatedly deny it. It is clear that the whole plane became
a fireball suddenly. So, unless it is a TWA 800 again, the missile hit is the only viable option.

And if you carefully watch the video from the car you will notice that it began with a faint light which
began intensifying but after a very short time it seems to diminish a little. And suddenly, there
is very intense light. On the video a faint light appears at about 0:04. It begins intensifying. Then it
seems to stop intensifying and even seems to diminish. After that very intense light appears suddenly.
I think about 1 second elapses between the first appearance of the faint light and the very intense light.
 
iamtom
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 5:36 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:27 am

zeke wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
One big question.

The Reuters report said the US/Canada/Euro team said there was evidence of the engine overheating. How would they have gotten this evidence without access to the crash site? Do they have access to engine manufacturer live monitoring?


How would they know this, it is possible for aircraft to transmit faults via acars,.


The aircraft landed and had 3 hours on the ground before setting off and we know it was approximately 1 hour delayed leaving. Given there was very little traffic early morning, so unlikely delayed due to congestion, it would indicate a technical issue that needed attention. It's quite possible that the inbound crew flagged an engine overheating issue on their flight in and maintenance were called to investigate. That could easily have involved a support call to Boeing or the engine manufacturer and will absolutely have involved the airlines operations team. All parties involved will have everything logged.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos