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majano
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:04 am

sgrow787 wrote:
majano wrote:
I agree with view and wish to add that I cannot believe that there is someone still peddling the theory that the "holes" on the aircraft structures are some sort of evidence of shrapnel form a missile.
1. Some of the holes are on the top of the horizontal stabilizer, some are on the burnt side of the plane and other on the unburnt side.
2. Looking at the latest video from what is said to be a CCTV camera, one can seen a large quantity of debris from the ground being flung by the velocity just before ground impact.
3. Photographs of the ground itself show a lot of gravel stone around the crash site.
4. The direction of the rudder damage.
All of these factors seem to point to some of the holes being a result of the impact with the ground itself.


The area around the hole in the tail fin (which is metal; only the control surface on the NG is CFRP) shows no damage or indentation from rocks on the ground. I find it hard to believe a rock sitting on the ground could put a clean hole into the tail fin. The plane is traveling at a fraction of the speed at impact (400mph) vs that of fragments from an explosion (2000mph).

I agree that the area immediately around that hole does not show damage that may have been caused by the object that punched it. However, there is a scratch towards the top of the fin on the metal surface which proceeds into a tear of the control surface. There is also significant damage at the base of the fin. The one consistency about all of these marks on the tail fin (including the hole) is that they seem to have been propagated from the unburnt side (or the starboard side) of the surface. For me, this is evidence that the damage occurred after whatever it is that caused the fire, not before.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:10 am

xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Insider job would explain lack of communication whilst they were bringing the plane down.

Gun and bomb together would explain pilots not communicating if gun used on the pilots or one bomb used near the pilots

Maybe don't even need a bomb. Can the gun cause the fire

When it was pilot suicide I'm sure all the early discussion was there must have been a catastrophic event in cockpit to take the pilot out and the plane had just flew itself to the ground etc

Then insider job answered all the questions

Doesn't insider job potentially answer all the questions here?


No, it does not explain the fireball, sorry.


So internal bomb and/or machine gun can't create the fireball?

Why not?
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:11 am

majano wrote:
Problem with the missile theory is that it was based primarily on the circumstances in the region and mistrust of Iran. The physical evidence seen so far does not appear to support it. Mistrust of Iran could still be an issue if they do not allow parties external of Iran to support the investigation. Inviting Ukraine is a step in the right direction, but my feeling is that a party such as the French BEA or US NTSB (if possible) should be invited to bring further credibility to the investigation. This is not to say the Iranian authorities cannot do a good job. To the contrary, Zeke provided evidence of how thorough their investigations are. But with A-Net, however thorough they may be, some may still discredit the findings.


The missile theory is alive, because the fireball-like accident on this kind of airplane would be huge anomaly and in absence of being it in Iran, at the time when Iranians were expected retaliatory strike by USA, we would all scratch our heads on HOW this could happen. This is not MAX with experimental design features. 3 year old 737-800 that had regular maintenance 3 days ago is as close as you can get to "reliable, widely tested workhorse". Actually, as far as airplane accidents go, most general public fears exactly this popular "fireball" scenario (note the depiction of airplane accident in Final Destination movie), but such accidents are exceedingly rare, not to mention that I am not aware of any with 737, which is the most widely used airplane series in the world...

That's why I still rate missile strike of any kind to be top possibility, say 50%. Because it fills many blanks, but not all.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:14 am

sevenair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Anyone familiar with B737 electrical system?

I'm wondering if anyone can explain the sudden stop of all data being transmitted from the machine.

On the A320 if say ENG1 goes, nothings driving the generator one and the system configures so that GEN2 feeds ACBUS1 AND ACBUS2 so a good majority of electrical systems are restored just with reduced redundancy. I'd imagine the B737 is similar.

I'm trying to work out why it simply went silent (from a data point of view) and what could cause that. If an engine is taken out, services supplied by that engine would be taken out but I'd imagine backup power would be supplied to the services that were lost.

Very queer indeed.

AA191 lost all electrical power on the captains side, as well as all communications, when the no. 1 engine detached. The FE could have switched the circuits but didn't do so for the 50 seconds between separation and impact.
Obviously a different airplane model, so you'd have to look at the 737NG systems architecture to check if something similar could happen.


That rings a bell actually. Wasnt the stall warning or stick pusher brought offline as a result of losing GEN1 on that flight?

I've had a look at the 737 elec schematics and as I expected it's easy to configure the system if a gen drops offline. You've also got the APU and battery providing 30 mins power should all busses fail. It seems that reconfiguring needs to be done ma usually though, so if whatever started this event took the pilots out, then power may never be restored. Autopilot will drop out, and can't be re-engaged until the opposite gen is manually brought online.


Would the back-up (battery) not kick-in once the engine falls out automatically? Or at least shouldn't the plane automatically draw power from another source?
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:15 am

[photoid][/photoid]
mysfit wrote:

I think the only thing we can remotely agree on is it not being the result of pilot error.


Yes but I wouldn't rule out a pilot or steward being involved in some kind of terrorism on board
 
mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:16 am

Hmm

Now what country in the ME could possibly benefit by taking down a civilian aircraft especially if they could pin it on someone else?

(And no I don't mean Iraq, Iran or the US)

Yes, I know. I read too much fiction.
Last edited by mysfit on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:17 am

Interested wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
mysfit wrote:

I think the only thing we can remotely agree on is it not being the result of pilot error.


Yes but I wouldn't rule out a pilot or steward being involved in some kind of terrorism on board

Yes but that would be an intention act as opposed to pilot error.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:18 am

airhansa wrote:
CPHGuard wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
Well. I'm hardly an expert on aircraft major malfunctions and what they can do to a plane. So, I'll be more of in question mode. 1st, has there EVER been a case where an engine explodes for whatever reason and to have it cause this much damage?

I think back at all of the other major engine explosions and while not all of the planes made it down safely, none that I can think of just fell out of the sky in a fireball.


Air France AF 4590 comes to mind, and it was airborne for less than 90 seconds:

https://youtu.be/fjtsbAckbTg?t=74


I actually use the concorde crash as a visual example of how a engine explosion [i]should[/i] look like at worst. An actually engine fire should be more contained as tools and protective design exists to help prevent such a fire from gaining out of control, I can't see how such a fire could a) bring down a plane to the point that all communications were lost (including no time for a mayday which is highly unusual) and b) engulf the plane in a fireball so quickly.

The Air Chine one posted above shows how a fuel leak + engine could create a massive fireball, far larger than the problems faced by Concorde, but there was a lot of time for the fire to spread and explode. It doesn't explain how the situation could collapse so quickly that the plane was both uncontrollable, engulfed in a large fireball and unable to communicate.


We thought the crew on the pilot suicide plane were unable to communicate and had to speculate all sorts of catastrophes that led to that when the answer was far simpler all along

The pilot left in the cockpit simply didn't want to communicate
Last edited by Interested on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:20 am

mysfit wrote:
Interested wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
mysfit wrote:

I think the only thing we can remotely agree on is it not being the result of pilot error.


Yes but I wouldn't rule out a pilot or steward being involved in some kind of terrorism on board

Yes but that would be an intention act as opposed to pilot error.


That's why I agreed with you but didn't want to rule out a pilot being involved in another way

Hope that makes sense

Trying to explain lack of communication from pilots. Either they all got taken out together or one of them took/locked the others out and didn't want to communicate etc.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:23 am

mysfit wrote:
Hmm

Now what country in the ME could possibly benefit by taking down a civilian aircraft especially if they could pin it on someone else?

(And no I don't mean Iraq, Iran or the US)

Yes, I know. I read too much fiction.


But that needs Iran to say this wasn't a technical or mechanical error?

I ask again have Iran officially made ANY statement on the cause of this crash yet or is this mechanical error message just hearsay?
 
mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:24 am

Interested wrote:
mysfit wrote:
Interested wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

Yes but I wouldn't rule out a pilot or steward being involved in some kind of terrorism on board

Yes but that would be an intention act as opposed to pilot error.


That's why I agreed with you but didn't want to rule out a pilot being involved in another way

Hope that makes sense

Trying to explain lack of communication from pilots. Either they all got taken out together or one of them took/locked the others out and didn't want to communicate etc.


I would think it would be rather difficult during the climb out. Seems like something that would take place later?
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:25 am

mysfit wrote:
Hmm

Now what country in the ME could possibly benefit by taking down a civilian aircraft especially if they could pin it on someone else?

(And no I don't mean Iraq, Iran or the US)

Yes, I know. I read too much fiction.


So far no one pins this on anyone, no country came with any claim that the aircraft was shot down by a missile, furthermore the missile theory is denied so far.

Viper911
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:26 am

xmp125a wrote:
majano wrote:
Problem with the missile theory is that it was based primarily on the circumstances in the region and mistrust of Iran. The physical evidence seen so far does not appear to support it. Mistrust of Iran could still be an issue if they do not allow parties external of Iran to support the investigation. Inviting Ukraine is a step in the right direction, but my feeling is that a party such as the French BEA or US NTSB (if possible) should be invited to bring further credibility to the investigation. This is not to say the Iranian authorities cannot do a good job. To the contrary, Zeke provided evidence of how thorough their investigations are. But with A-Net, however thorough they may be, some may still discredit the findings.


The missile theory is alive, because the fireball-like accident on this kind of airplane would be huge anomaly and in absence of being it in Iran, at the time when Iranians were expected retaliatory strike by USA, we would all scratch our heads on HOW this could happen. This is not MAX with experimental design features. 3 year old 737-800 that had regular maintenance 3 days ago is as close as you can get to "reliable, widely tested workhorse". Actually, as far as airplane accidents go, most general public fears exactly this popular "fireball" scenario (note the depiction of airplane accident in Final Destination movie), but such accidents are exceedingly rare, not to mention that I am not aware of any with 737, which is the most widely used airplane series in the world...

That's why I still rate missile strike of any kind to be top possibility, say 50%. Because it fills many blanks, but not all.


No government claiming missile strike yet?

No members of public claims of seeing or hearing a missile launch yet?

A missile launched at night near a city must be 100 times more noticeable than the world's biggest firework

Isn't it??

You can't possibly hide a missile launch at night can you?

This hasn't happened over the middle of an ocean has it?

Surely many would see or hear a missile launch this close to built up areas?

Let alone radar or intelligence who can monitor stuff like that

Locals are posting images on everything else and videos

Zero mention I've seen of any locals in the area seeing or claiming a missile launch

Just people like us thousands or miles away suspecting it

We have potentially fake images of a used missile on the ground

How do people in the area not see or hear a missile launch at night?
Last edited by Interested on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:33 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:27 am

sonicruiser wrote:
….. If reports of a backroom deal where Iran gave advance warning to the US about striking bases is true, allowing evacuation of troops resulting in zero US or Iraqi casualties, there may have been some tacit acknowledgement that the US would not retaliate resulting in Iran not being on as heightened of an alert as initially suggested. If there was a real threat from reports of enemy aircraft approaching from the south, Iran would have closed their airspace in time before those enemy aircraft would reach the far north of the country. As all civil aircraft would have been grounded with advance warning from the south, military aircraft would have been isolated and no commercial flights would have been at risk.


Frankly, one does not even need reports to surmise that some sort of a backroom deal may have been going on. It looks like Iran was able to retaliate for Soleimani's killing, but in a manner that was "acceptable" to the U.S. (no loss of lives to any Americans, but presumably some material damage). Incidentally, I do not really understand accusations against Iran for lack of transparency in this context: it should not be that difficult to guess that there are some people who are trying to avert a war here and forgive them if their thinking is not one of prioritizing transparency. When somebody from the WH says that the President is a genius, nobody cries "we want transparency, what is his real IQ?" Everybody understands the statement is not meant to inform the public about their leader's intellectual prowess, but something else. When Iran says it killed so many American soldiers, I do not think it is trying to be transparent, it is actually purposefully misleading as part of a likely orchestrated series of moves to reduce tensions. The regime was able to tell its people that it retaliated and the U.S. is able to walk away from what appears to be a rash move of questionable legality without a war-like retaliation from Iran. I see Iran's hasty announcement that the plane had technical problems in that context: they have a backroom deal and they want to come out and say "look, nobody is shooting at anyone, no military moves." I am not saying the statement is necessarily accurate, I am saying it may be a knee-jerk reaction to preserve the calm (even if it later turns out to have been a mistaken Iranian shoot-down), not to hide some fact known at the time of the statement.

I think a lot of people, not just the U.S. and Iran, but many European and Middle Easter governments were gravely concerned about the escalation and were working very hard to avoid a war. A plane crash is very important news for everyone, but in the context of potential military escalation it may become a very minor issue, even if it had been caused accidentally by the conflict in the region.

Unlike some others, I think we will eventually know what happened to this plane. Whether or not the pilots have communicated with the tower, they will have either communicated with each other and we will either know what they said (and other noises will be heard) or it is abrupt silence, once the recorders are read. If Iran does not release the recordings, there will be reason to believe that its forces were involved in the disaster and at that point I would find criticisms about lack of transparency entirely valid. If it does, then everybody can tell for themselves. what actually happened It will just take time.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:28 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
And if you carefully watch the video from the car you will notice that it began with a faint light which

Forget the video. It shows nothing relevant. After ADSB data dropped, the plane flew 20km. The cause of the descend is not shown on any video.

The unanswered question for me is, how could the plane be knocked out electrically (no ADBS feed anymore) and still fly for several minutes on a rather shallow descend (~1:10)?

The missile theory is about as unprobable as the uncontained engine failure to explain that, imo.

So what's possibly left to immediately loss ADS-B + communication and to ignite a such fire with debris detaching in flight + loss of control ?
On board explosion ?
I hope the flight recorders will tell more in a week or two, if the Iran find a way to read them...
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
AeroplaneFreak
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:29 am

Viper911 wrote:
furthermore the missile theory is denied so far.

Viper911


As is every other theory.
 
yurieu
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:29 am

Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.
 
vrbarreto
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:30 am

Has anyone read this yet?

https://www.cao.ir/news/organizatioal/d ... 8%B4%D8%AF

Need google translate but says that there is data but boxes are physically damaged.. Also goes on about some items to do with who has been informed about the investigation and who may be involved.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:30 am

According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.

Good news: Iran is willing to transfer the black boxes to Ukraine. I guess they can and will forward them to Boeing, BEA etc.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:31 am

iamtom wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Personally, I believe that if there had been even the slightest possibility that Americans could have been blamed, Iran would have done so. The fact that they’re keeping this so close to the vest makes me think it was one of their ADA sites and someone screwed up.


In the same respect don't you think that if Iran had blown up a plane the US wouldn't have already announced that? The US (and others) have active satellites monitoring for missile launches across the globe. I imagine these eyes in the skies are tuned specifically to Iran right now, so if anything was fired they would know about it. It was also still dark and clear skies above Tehran so it's just not possible a missile launch (especially right now) could be missed.

Several European defence agencies have also announced they have no intelligence to suggest this was a missile attack, and they have absolutely no reason to protect Iran over this.

That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

https://aerotoolbox.net/airspeed-conversions/
https://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_ ... es_uk.html
Last edited by sgrow787 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:31 am

Viper911 wrote:

Smfurthermore the missile theory is denied so far.

Viper911


Not by everyone.
However unlikely, it remains a viable option.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:37 am

yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


Indeed. Not like anything we've seen in recent years. Quite frightening really.
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:38 am

mysfit wrote:
Viper911 wrote:

Smfurthermore the missile theory is denied so far.

Viper911


Not by everyone.
However unlikely, it remains a viable option.


It is a viable option no doubt about that.

Viper911
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:39 am

xmp125a wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Well, as long as everyone is talking about rapidly progressing fires that disable the pilots and electrical systems fast, a fire originating near the oxygen system is one that hasn't been mentioned.


But fireball?


It seems to create fireballs... in more time than that aircraft was in flight though.

Honestly, the trail of flames on its way down would have to be fuel. But that just brings us back around full circle to how it could be dispersing enough fuel into the air to fuel a fire shining bright while viewed from a distance.
情報
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:39 am

N14AZ wrote:
According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.
.


I read that article differently tbh

"The Iranian authorities spoke of a technical defect shortly after the incident, but did not explain what they were relying on to assess the situation. Iranian President Hassan Ruhabi later asked the Ministry of Transport and the Aviation Authority for complete clarification, as the news channel Chabar reported."

I was awake when that mechanical message was claimed

It was so early at a time we weren't even sure on here the whole crash wasn't fake news

And above we get no detail of who the "Iranian authorities" who said it were

And then we get someone we can lost to asking for complete clarification

I don't believe we have any official message or statement at all about the cause of the crash from Iran?

Same as everybody else. All options open still?
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:42 am

sgrow787 wrote:
iamtom wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Personally, I believe that if there had been even the slightest possibility that Americans could have been blamed, Iran would have done so. The fact that they’re keeping this so close to the vest makes me think it was one of their ADA sites and someone screwed up.


In the same respect don't you think that if Iran had blown up a plane the US wouldn't have already announced that? The US (and others) have active satellites monitoring for missile launches across the globe. I imagine these eyes in the skies are tuned specifically to Iran right now, so if anything was fired they would know about it. It was also still dark and clear skies above Tehran so it's just not possible a missile launch (especially right now) could be missed.

Several European defence agencies have also announced they have no intelligence to suggest this was a missile attack, and they have absolutely no reason to protect Iran over this.

That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

https://aerotoolbox.net/airspeed-conversions/
https://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_ ... es_uk.html


It's not just video evidence we are missing of a missile

It's actually anyone in Iran or in government suggesting there was a missile involved or anyone claiming they saw or heard one launched

This is all happening near built up residential areas?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:43 am

N14AZ wrote:
According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.

Good news: Iran is willing to transfer the black boxes to Ukraine. I guess they can and will forward them to Boeing, BEA etc.


That's not what I've read.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... 6854654d5c
Iran says it will not hand the flight data recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines airliner back to plane-maker Boeing or the United States.

Speaking to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, the head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority, Ali Abedzadeh said the black boxes would be analyzed in the country where the accident took place, in accordance with ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) rules.

Ukrainian investigators would be a part of the process, he added.
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mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:43 am

Seeing multiple reports now that the plane HAD turned back but no radio call. Unknown if the problem resulting in the turn was what brought the plane down. A rapid fire which cut off communication? If so, could that cut off the black boxes?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html

Also CNN
 
AeroplaneFreak
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:43 am

yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


Sorry no one has ruled out a missile strike, furthermore no matter what anyone says on here the chances of it being a missile strike or some kind of foul play (intentional or not) are far greater than a malfunction.
Last edited by AeroplaneFreak on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:44 am

Do these missile launches also have 100 per cent success rate?

One missile can secretly be fired and take out one plane just like that

Is it that simple and easy?

I have no idea?

I still say you can't hide one missile launch in this location even if that's all it takes nowadays
 
zionite
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:44 am

yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


A Kill Switch hidden in a software...
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:46 am

mysfit wrote:
Seeing multiple reports now that the plane HAD turned back but no radio call. Unknown if the problem resulting in the turn was what brought the plane down. A rapid fire which cut off communication? If so, could that cut off the black boxes?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html

Also CNN


There's no radio call and no proof they were turning back. If they were turning back, they'd turn to the south and wouldn't turn right toward the north and the high ground. Whatever it was they were dealing with was so sudden and so catastrophic that they couldn't maintain flight nevermind point the thing where they wanted to go. The first video we saw of the crash shows an aircraft that is very much out of control
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:47 am

sgrow787 wrote:
iamtom wrote:
heyjoojoo wrote:
Personally, I believe that if there had been even the slightest possibility that Americans could have been blamed, Iran would have done so. The fact that they’re keeping this so close to the vest makes me think it was one of their ADA sites and someone screwed up.


In the same respect don't you think that if Iran had blown up a plane the US wouldn't have already announced that? The US (and others) have active satellites monitoring for missile launches across the globe. I imagine these eyes in the skies are tuned specifically to Iran right now, so if anything was fired they would know about it. It was also still dark and clear skies above Tehran so it's just not possible a missile launch (especially right now) could be missed.

Several European defence agencies have also announced they have no intelligence to suggest this was a missile attack, and they have absolutely no reason to protect Iran over this.

That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:47 am

Interested wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.
.


I read that article differently tbh

"The Iranian authorities spoke of a technical defect shortly after the incident, but did not explain what they were relying on to assess the situation. Iranian President Hassan Ruhabi later asked the Ministry of Transport and the Aviation Authority for complete clarification, as the news channel Chabar reported."

I was awake when that mechanical message was claimed

It was so early at a time we weren't even sure on here the whole crash wasn't fake news

And above we get no detail of who the "Iranian authorities" who said it were

And then we get someone we can lost to asking for complete clarification

I don't believe we have any official message or statement at all about the cause of the crash from Iran?

Same as everybody else. All options open still?


It's the same after every crash - lack of information, conflicting reports, unreliable eyewitnesses, language translation issues. Add in a "war zone" and America's favourite bogeyman Iran and you've got a hot mess. Hardly anything attributed as "Iran says..." can be believed because the sources are often not named.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:48 am

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


Sorry no one has ruled out a missile strike, furthermore no matter what anyone says on here the chances of it being a missile strike or some kind of foul play (intentional or not) are far greater than a malfunction.


He hasn't ruled out foul play. You also can't rule out some ultra rare malfunction either at the same time.

I personally have it down to something foul play on board or ultra rare malfunction. Rather than missile the more I think about it.
 
cpd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:49 am

N212R wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
Absolutely tragic. I would guess there were a number of people on the flight wanting to get out of Tehran to because of the escalating issues.


And likely more than a few that Iranian intelligence would be happy to see not arrive at their destination.



But why would they bring it down over their own territory? That doesn’t make any sense at all.

It’s too early to speculate.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:49 am

N14AZ wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
iamtom wrote:

In the same respect don't you think that if Iran had blown up a plane the US wouldn't have already announced that? The US (and others) have active satellites monitoring for missile launches across the globe. I imagine these eyes in the skies are tuned specifically to Iran right now, so if anything was fired they would know about it. It was also still dark and clear skies above Tehran so it's just not possible a missile launch (especially right now) could be missed.

Several European defence agencies have also announced they have no intelligence to suggest this was a missile attack, and they have absolutely no reason to protect Iran over this.

That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


It all seemed normal up to 8000. Then the aircraft went silent.
 
AeroplaneFreak
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:52 am

Interested wrote:
AeroplaneFreak wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


Sorry no one has ruled out a missile strike, furthermore no matter what anyone says on here the chances of it being a missile strike or some kind of foul play (intentional or not) are far greater than a malfunction.


He hasn't ruled out foul play. You also can't rule out some ultra rare malfunction either at the same time.

I personally have it down to something foul play on board or ultra rare malfunction. Rather than missile the more I think about it.


Sorry probably didn't word it correctly. I'm not ruling out a malfunction but it seems that several people are taking random posts claiming it's not a missile to be fact. There is ZERO evidence available to the public which rules out a missile strike and until something of the like does come out a missile strike will remain a very high possibility.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:52 am

scbriml wrote:
Interested wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.
.


I read that article differently tbh

"The Iranian authorities spoke of a technical defect shortly after the incident, but did not explain what they were relying on to assess the situation. Iranian President Hassan Ruhabi later asked the Ministry of Transport and the Aviation Authority for complete clarification, as the news channel Chabar reported."

I was awake when that mechanical message was claimed

It was so early at a time we weren't even sure on here the whole crash wasn't fake news

And above we get no detail of who the "Iranian authorities" who said it were

And then we get someone we can lost to asking for complete clarification

I don't believe we have any official message or statement at all about the cause of the crash from Iran?

Same as everybody else. All options open still?


It's the same after every crash - lack of information, conflicting reports, unreliable eyewitnesses, language translation issues. Add in a "war zone" and America's favourite bogeyman Iran and you've got a hot mess. Hardly anything attributed as "Iran says..." can be believed because the sources are often not named.

I was referring to this sentence:
Der Iran hat einem Tag nach dem Absturz bekräftigt, dass eine technische Ursache zu der Katastrophe geführt haben soll. "Wegen eines technischen Defekts hat die Maschine Feuer gefangen und dies führte zum Absturz", sagte Verkehrs- und Transportminister Mohammed Eslami der Nachrichtenagentur Isna am Donnerstag.

Rough translation: "One day after the crash, Iran confirmed that a technical defect lead to the catastrophe. “The aircraft caught fire due to a technical defect and this led to the crash” said the secretary for traffic and transport Mohammed Eslami to Isna on Thursday."
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:53 am

scbriml wrote:
Interested wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
According to this article https://www.aero.de/news-33671/Nach-737 ... sache.html and several other news report, Iran today re-confirmed their assessment that the crash was due to a “mechanical failure”. I find this very strange. How would they be in a position to already know the cause now. It’s either unprofessional or they have been instructed to say so.
.


I read that article differently tbh

"The Iranian authorities spoke of a technical defect shortly after the incident, but did not explain what they were relying on to assess the situation. Iranian President Hassan Ruhabi later asked the Ministry of Transport and the Aviation Authority for complete clarification, as the news channel Chabar reported."

I was awake when that mechanical message was claimed

It was so early at a time we weren't even sure on here the whole crash wasn't fake news

And above we get no detail of who the "Iranian authorities" who said it were

And then we get someone we can lost to asking for complete clarification

I don't believe we have any official message or statement at all about the cause of the crash from Iran?

Same as everybody else. All options open still?


It's the same after every crash - lack of information, conflicting reports, unreliable eyewitnesses, language translation issues. Add in a "war zone" and America's favourite bogeyman Iran and you've got a hot mess. Hardly anything attributed as "Iran says..." can be believed because the sources are often not named.


But unless someone wants to correct me Iran haven't actually said anything at all about the cause of crash other than the guy above asking for complete clarification?

And even that's based on what a news channel says

Has anyone seen any official statement at all from Iran for us to actually look at and analyse

I don't think they've actually said anything about any cause at all yet?

And we've got carried away by that unofficial message right when the news of the plane crashing emerged. That message about mechanical failure hasn't been attributed to anybody at all in Iran. We don't even have a name of who said it?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:53 am

Has anything been said about the cargo?

mysfit wrote:
Seeing multiple reports now that the plane HAD turned back but no radio call. Unknown if the problem resulting in the turn was what brought the plane down. A rapid fire which cut off communication? If so, could that cut off the black boxes?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html

Also CNN


I read this a few hours ago on multiple websites as well. The crew was able to react to the incident but didn't call mayday. Doesn't the flight data show that the plane was flying down on a steady trajectory as well? Also it was a shallow descent? In such a situation would it not be advisable to call mayday and request immediate emergency assistance on the ground in case there are survivors?
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:55 am

Interested wrote:
Do these missile launches also have 100 per cent success rate?

One missile can secretly be fired and take out one plane just like that

Is it that simple and easy?

I have no idea?

I still say you can't hide one missile launch in this location even if that's all it takes nowadays


Kill rate of a TOR-M1 is between 92-95%:

https://defense-update.com/20070529_tor.html
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
aw70
Posts: 142
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:56 am

cpd wrote:
But why would they bring it down over their own territory? That doesn’t make any sense at all.


I don't think anyone has come up with a reason for why Iran would do something of the sort intentionally. But they do have a very well-provisioned and sophisticated air defence network, which was on high alert at the very moment this happened. And said air defence network is bound to have large amounts of assets near and around Teheran in particular. It is therefore not unthinkable that due to some tragic mistakes by air defence network decision makers, an Iranian AAM was actually fired at the Ukrainian plane in error.
Last edited by aw70 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Interested
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Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:57 am

N14AZ wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Interested wrote:

I read that article differently tbh

"The Iranian authorities spoke of a technical defect shortly after the incident, but did not explain what they were relying on to assess the situation. Iranian President Hassan Ruhabi later asked the Ministry of Transport and the Aviation Authority for complete clarification, as the news channel Chabar reported."

I was awake when that mechanical message was claimed

It was so early at a time we weren't even sure on here the whole crash wasn't fake news

And above we get no detail of who the "Iranian authorities" who said it were

And then we get someone we can lost to asking for complete clarification

I don't believe we have any official message or statement at all about the cause of the crash from Iran?

Same as everybody else. All options open still?


It's the same after every crash - lack of information, conflicting reports, unreliable eyewitnesses, language translation issues. Add in a "war zone" and America's favourite bogeyman Iran and you've got a hot mess. Hardly anything attributed as "Iran says..." can be believed because the sources are often not named.

I was referring to this sentence:
Der Iran hat einem Tag nach dem Absturz bekräftigt, dass eine technische Ursache zu der Katastrophe geführt haben soll. "Wegen eines technischen Defekts hat die Maschine Feuer gefangen und dies führte zum Absturz", sagte Verkehrs- und Transportminister Mohammed Eslami der Nachrichtenagentur Isna am Donnerstag.

Rough translation: "One day after the crash, Iran confirmed that a technical defect lead to the catastrophe. “The aircraft caught fire due to a technical defect and this led to the crash” said the secretary for traffic and transport Mohammed Eslami to Isna on Thursday."


Thank you. So they are saying that officially. I take back some of my recent posts saying nobody from Iran had claimed technical defect.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:59 am

sgrow787 wrote:
Interested wrote:
Do these missile launches also have 100 per cent success rate?

One missile can secretly be fired and take out one plane just like that

Is it that simple and easy?

I have no idea?

I still say you can't hide one missile launch in this location even if that's all it takes nowadays


Kill rate of a TOR-M1 is between 92-95%:

https://defense-update.com/20070529_tor.html


Thanks

How noticeable would one of those missiles launched at night be to the public in the surrounding areas.

I'm assuming very noticeable?

Based on any missiles I've seen on TV (albeit rarely)
 
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Jouhou
Posts: 2539
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:01 am

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Hmm so if this isn't a missile strike, maybe it's a ultra rare kind of malfunction.


Sorry no one has ruled out a missile strike, furthermore no matter what anyone says on here the chances of it being a missile strike or some kind of foul play (intentional or not) are far greater than a malfunction.


When MH17 happened the initial anet discussion went similarly. Like it sure looked like a shootdown, but every time there's any unexplained crashed someone's in here claiming its a shoot down or pilot suicide. The difference is when a majority of people look at the evidence and conclude a shoot down is the most logical explanation, even though it's tragic and rare.

Interested wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Interested wrote:
Do these missile launches also have 100 per cent success rate?

One missile can secretly be fired and take out one plane just like that

Is it that simple and easy?

I have no idea?

I still say you can't hide one missile launch in this location even if that's all it takes nowadays


Kill rate of a TOR-M1 is between 92-95%:

https://defense-update.com/20070529_tor.html


Thanks

How noticeable would one of those missiles launched at night be to the public in the surrounding areas.

I'm assuming very noticeable?

Based on any missiles I've seen on TV (albeit rarely)


When you see missiles on TV they're generally quite large. Something being used for air defense does not have to be particularly large.
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
mysfit
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:02 am

sevenair wrote:
mysfit wrote:
Seeing multiple reports now that the plane HAD turned back but no radio call. Unknown if the problem resulting in the turn was what brought the plane down. A rapid fire which cut off communication? If so, could that cut off the black boxes?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html

Also CNN


There's no radio call and no proof they were turning back. If they were turning back, they'd turn to the south and wouldn't turn right toward the north and the high ground. Whatever it was they were dealing with was so sudden and so catastrophic that they couldn't maintain flight nevermind point the thing where they wanted to go. The first video we saw of the crash shows an aircraft that is very much out of control


I'm simply relaying what is being reported.

Why would the Iranians, who have far better data than anyone here, make that up?

As far as the video, there's no way of knowing how long the plane was in trouble BEFORE filming started.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:07 am

N14AZ wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


For the TOR-M1 SAM:
Minimum range to target is 1.5 km (0.9 miles). Effective altitude: 10–6000 m (30ft - 20000ft).
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
mysfit
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:08 am

Also, doesn't the CCV camera indicate more shallow, horizontal velocity? I could have sworn someone mentioned that, in support of some limited late control.
 
FANMD11
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:48 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:11 am

AeroplaneFreak wrote:

I think what most people are having trouble with is the fact if it was an engine fire or engine failure how did it escalate so fast that essentially within 1 minute it falls from the sky? This would be a first in commercial aviation, of course just because somethings never happened doesn't mean it can't.


Indeed, but a fuel tank fire has happened before with the same consequences : AF4590 Concorde crash. It didnt't stay long airborn and at night it surely would have looked like a massive fireball. I know it's a very different airplane and an external factor was the initial cause, and I wonder if an uncontained engine failure couldn't damage the wing badly enough to make a hole in the fuel tank, leading to a leak being ignited by the heat of the engine.
I haven't any background to make any assumption, so I'm just asking.

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