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XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:11 am

sonicruiser wrote:
One big question.

The Reuters report said the US/Canada/Euro team said there was evidence of the engine overheating. How would they have gotten this evidence without access to the crash site? Do they have access to engine manufacturer live monitoring?

A few hours after a ballistic missile strike in a war zone? Resources deployed would identify even a firecracker going off anywhere in the region.

Ray
 
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eisenbach
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:13 am

NonTechAvLover wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
….. If reports of a backroom deal where Iran gave advance warning to the US about striking bases is true, allowing evacuation of troops resulting in zero US or Iraqi casualties, there may have been some tacit acknowledgement that the US would not retaliate resulting in Iran not being on as heightened of an alert as initially suggested. If there was a real threat from reports of enemy aircraft approaching from the south, Iran would have closed their airspace in time before those enemy aircraft would reach the far north of the country. As all civil aircraft would have been grounded with advance warning from the south, military aircraft would have been isolated and no commercial flights would have been at risk.


Frankly, one does not even need reports to surmise that some sort of a backroom deal may have been going on. It looks like Iran was able to retaliate for Soleimani's killing, but in a manner that was "acceptable" to the U.S. (no loss of lives to any Americans, but presumably some material damage). Incidentally, I do not really understand accusations against Iran for lack of transparency in this context: it should not be that difficult to guess that there are some people who are trying to avert a war here and forgive them if their thinking is not one of prioritizing transparency. When somebody from the WH says that the President is a genius, nobody cries "we want transparency, what is his real IQ?" Everybody understands the statement is not meant to inform the public about their leader's intellectual prowess, but something else. When Iran says it killed so many American soldiers, I do not think it is trying to be transparent, it is actually purposefully misleading as part of a likely orchestrated series of moves to reduce tensions. The regime was able to tell its people that it retaliated and the U.S. is able to walk away from what appears to be a rash move of questionable legality without a war-like retaliation from Iran. I see Iran's hasty announcement that the plane had technical problems in that context: they have a backroom deal and they want to come out and say "look, nobody is shooting at anyone, no military moves." I am not saying the statement is necessarily accurate, I am saying it may be a knee-jerk reaction to preserve the calm (even if it later turns out to have been a mistaken Iranian shoot-down), not to hide some fact known at the time of the statement.

I think a lot of people, not just the U.S. and Iran, but many European and Middle Easter governments were gravely concerned about the escalation and were working very hard to avoid a war. A plane crash is very important news for everyone, but in the context of potential military escalation it may become a very minor issue, even if it had been caused accidentally by the conflict in the region.

Unlike some others, I think we will eventually know what happened to this plane. Whether or not the pilots have communicated with the tower, they will have either communicated with each other and we will either know what they said (and other noises will be heard) or it is abrupt silence, once the recorders are read. If Iran does not release the recordings, there will be reason to believe that its forces were involved in the disaster and at that point I would find criticisms about lack of transparency entirely valid. If it does, then everybody can tell for themselves. what actually happened It will just take time.


Everyone should read this! Could be my words! Thanks!

-----

IF the accident was caused by a missile, I would be not surprised that it was an accident by the Iranian military. But based on my information, at the moment it foes not look like a missile hit.
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mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:16 am

Let me repost the link. It would seem some people quoting my post with the link didn't read it very carefully.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html
 
Eikie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:17 am

FANMD11 wrote:
AeroplaneFreak wrote:

I think what most people are having trouble with is the fact if it was an engine fire or engine failure how did it escalate so fast that essentially within 1 minute it falls from the sky? This would be a first in commercial aviation, of course just because somethings never happened doesn't mean it can't.


Indeed, but a fuel tank fire has happened before with the same consequences : AF4590 Concorde crash. It didnt't stay long airborn and at night it surely would have looked like a massive fireball. I know it's a very different airplane and an external factor was the initial cause, and I wonder if an uncontained engine failure couldn't damage the wing badly enough to make a hole in the fuel tank, leading to a leak being ignited by the heat of the engine.
I haven't any background to make any assumption, so I'm just asking.
A wing fire alone does not explain the ads signal to abruptly end nor the silence from the cockpit.
 
AeroplaneFreak
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:21 am

The two main things that concern me are...

1. Lack of contact from the crew with normal ADS-B until data stops.
2. Mechanical failure listed as the cause within an hour of the accident.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:25 am

2175301 wrote:
flybucky wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I have seen no such claims by western intelligence. Can you provide such a link?

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source. The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction."
https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-cr ... SL1N29D1DU


I don't buy that at all. No normal commercial security service will ever hear a tweet of what the real intelligence agencies have on the details of this event - and the announcement is way to soon as it's unlikely that the intelligence agencies even know what data they really have at this point. I saw a news item saying the CIA was looking at their data... which makes sense.

A reality is a lot of intelligence is recorded and only reviewed later (often weeks to months later). In this case, the intelligence agencies will have to access the readily retrievable stored data and review it. Something that in many cases take time (day + is typical). Some of the best intelligence may be from local sources that are only periodically accessed for their data (and perhaps only accessed manually as they do not transmit at all to keep their presence secret). It may be months before that information is available.

Review of known past intelligent operations that have been leaked or declassified involves many known cases of local gathering devices that were only accessed every 4-6 months to get their recorded data (which in certain cases was known to contain actual phone conversations between military base commanders and the Russian Military headquarters, etc). Russia actually has one of these US espionage data collection devices in their "espionage museum" after they were clued in by a double agent that they existed and then went looking for it - and found it.

To restate - I do not believe that the real intelligence agencies would tell some private security company what they had, and so fast. This sounds like a false story to me.

Have a great day,

Its a war zone. Data on air movements and anything that looks like a launch or explosion is collected and analysed in real time.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:27 am

eisenbach wrote:
NonTechAvLover wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
….. If reports of a backroom deal where Iran gave advance warning to the US about striking bases is true, allowing evacuation of troops resulting in zero US or Iraqi casualties, there may have been some tacit acknowledgement that the US would not retaliate resulting in Iran not being on as heightened of an alert as initially suggested. If there was a real threat from reports of enemy aircraft approaching from the south, Iran would have closed their airspace in time before those enemy aircraft would reach the far north of the country. As all civil aircraft would have been grounded with advance warning from the south, military aircraft would have been isolated and no commercial flights would have been at risk.


Frankly, one does not even need reports to surmise that some sort of a backroom deal may have been going on. It looks like Iran was able to retaliate for Soleimani's killing, but in a manner that was "acceptable" to the U.S. (no loss of lives to any Americans, but presumably some material damage). Incidentally, I do not really understand accusations against Iran for lack of transparency in this context: it should not be that difficult to guess that there are some people who are trying to avert a war here and forgive them if their thinking is not one of prioritizing transparency. When somebody from the WH says that the President is a genius, nobody cries "we want transparency, what is his real IQ?" Everybody understands the statement is not meant to inform the public about their leader's intellectual prowess, but something else. When Iran says it killed so many American soldiers, I do not think it is trying to be transparent, it is actually purposefully misleading as part of a likely orchestrated series of moves to reduce tensions. The regime was able to tell its people that it retaliated and the U.S. is able to walk away from what appears to be a rash move of questionable legality without a war-like retaliation from Iran. I see Iran's hasty announcement that the plane had technical problems in that context: they have a backroom deal and they want to come out and say "look, nobody is shooting at anyone, no military moves." I am not saying the statement is necessarily accurate, I am saying it may be a knee-jerk reaction to preserve the calm (even if it later turns out to have been a mistaken Iranian shoot-down), not to hide some fact known at the time of the statement.

I think a lot of people, not just the U.S. and Iran, but many European and Middle Easter governments were gravely concerned about the escalation and were working very hard to avoid a war. A plane crash is very important news for everyone, but in the context of potential military escalation it may become a very minor issue, even if it had been caused accidentally by the conflict in the region.

Unlike some others, I think we will eventually know what happened to this plane. Whether or not the pilots have communicated with the tower, they will have either communicated with each other and we will either know what they said (and other noises will be heard) or it is abrupt silence, once the recorders are read. If Iran does not release the recordings, there will be reason to believe that its forces were involved in the disaster and at that point I would find criticisms about lack of transparency entirely valid. If it does, then everybody can tell for themselves. what actually happened It will just take time.


Everyone should read this! Could be my words! Thanks!

-----

IF the accident was caused by a missile, I would be not surprised that it was an accident by the Iranian military. But based on my information, at the moment it foes not look like a missile hit.


Iran has some rather strong militias that aren't necessarily privy to those kinds of negotiations and tend to operate without communicating with the official government.
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Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:27 am

mysfit wrote:
Let me repost the link. It would seem some people quoting my post with the link didn't read it very carefully.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 48656.html


From the link:

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources - three Americans, one European and the Canadian - who asked not to be named, told Reuters."

Reuters unlikely to make something like that up??
 
sgrow787
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:29 am

Interested wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Kill rate of a TOR-M1 is between 92-95%:

https://defense-update.com/20070529_tor.html


Thanks

How noticeable would one of those missiles launched at night be to the public in the surrounding areas.



Pretty noticeable:

https://youtu.be/xP5mnkk41JE?t=47
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
CPHGuard
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:31 am

sevenair wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
That's a good point. However, the max velocity of a TOR-M1 SAM is Mach 2.8, which is about 6.4x the speed of a 737 at climbout at 250kts (0.436 Mach at 8000 ft). The engagement range is 12km, or 7.5 miles. That's about 14 seconds worse case, not enough time for most people to get the phone out, turn the camera app on, after spending the first few seconds wondering what they are seeing.

Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


It all seemed normal up to 8000. Then the aircraft went silent.


I'm not 100% sure that 8000 is correct.
A user earlier in this thread wrote:

"Some more information regarding the airport:
- IKA airport elevation is 3305ft.
- According FR24 the aircraft reached around 8000ftMSL. This is "only" 4700ft AGL."
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:32 am

mysfit wrote:
As far as the video, there's no way of knowing how long the plane was in trouble BEFORE filming started.

I evaluate that the time between the ADS-B loss and the ground impact is about 2 minutes, based on the fact that this is about the same distance from the airport and the loss of ADS-B, and that it toke about 3 minutes to travel that distance but with speed increasing according to ADS-B data. The video is about half a minute long, so the first event could be as far as 1.5 minutes before the start of the video.

Note: the video was taken from a location about 10 km from the position of the ADS-B loss, so if any noticeable sound was generated at that moment, it would still take about half a minute to reach the guy that have take the video. We don't know yet if it was the light or the sound that motivated the guy to take the video. I think it was possible that he started to take the video when he realized that the trajectory was going back in the direction of the town. This could explain why the video start only half a minute before impact. In any case, that video is the best evidence we have today about what was happening in flight: fire with debris detaching.
Last edited by PixelFlight on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:34 am

Jouhou wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Pavlakakos wrote:
This is just a rumor and i just wanted to share with you. The mother of a flight attendant said she received a phone call from her daughter saying machine guns were being fired in the cabin and then the connection ended.
The stewardess was from the city of Nova Kakhovka and was my wife's classmate. Don't know if the rumor stands, however i guess we'll soon find out. If there was indeed gunfire, the Iranians will be quick to reveal that info, in order to clear themselves from the missile theory.


Since at this stage we all operate on very noisy and unreliable data, we should really talk in probabilities (and understand them as well -- unlike the media that blamed Nate Silver for assigning Trump "only" 30% probability to win).

So back to the topic.

I'd say that machine gun fire inside the cabin has about 0.1% probability to down the airliner in the manner we have seen (and on the data we can reasonably trust). First, the pilots would probably notify ATC or at least change the transponder code (hijacking). Second, I don't know about security in Tehran airport, but Tehran itself is not a war zone, it is not Baghdad, not even a typical US inner city overflown with guns. So someone bringing a machine gun onto an airplane is basically unbelievable.

Now, to divide the rest 99.9%, IMHO.

0.9% intentional downing by a state actor, either Iran or US (fully aware that it is passenger airplane)
19% intentional downing by a MANPADS, operated by some kind of guerilla or rogue force inside Iran
50% of iran making a tragic mistake with nervous and trigger-happy air defences which expected massive retaliation after hitting US bases with missiles
20% uncontained engine failure or other technical fault
20% some kind of unplanned accidental interference with US or Iran military operation (collision with the US drone, unfortunate collateral damage in legitimate Iran action to shoot down existing US aircraft or drone, etc).

I have assigned highest probability to iran's tragic mistake due to Iran being very tame about this incident and claiming basically immediately that it was not downed by a missile. Please note the usual fiery rhetoric from Iran about USA and the West in general (the great Satan etc.) Claiming that it wasn't a missile basically when aircraft barely touched the ground reveals that they know more than they are saying and the tame reaction basically means that they feel at least partly responsible for the downing - or they are sure there were no missiles in vicinity, therefore technical fault. MANPADS or any organized guerilla force in such close vicinity of Tehran airport and indeed urban city itself would be also a massive humiliation to Iran, so that would probably met with subdued silence as well.

Otherwise they would be screaming all over, after all there were two busloads of Iranians on that plane!

Note (0.9% still means that the outcome is possible... but very unlikely, lesson Nate Silver and Trump election).



Also it should be noted mechanical failures of equipment can create a variety of loud noises that may also happen in rapid succession. https://youtu.be/cR8Tr5T0CFQ?t=25s (example of loud scary noise happening repeatedly, not of machine gun like noise)

It's possible the rumor they are reporting is true, but based on misidentified scary loud noises.


I have found original article about this call from stewardess and it does not state anything about "machine gun fire in cabin", direct translation is actually - "we were shot upon", which knowing the context I would interpret as "we were shot down" by something like Anti-Aircraft Artillery or gunfire. Not a missile because for that case a different word is commonly used. However, if this call is even true - these may not be actual words said by stewardess but what the called person had perceived and remembered. Furthermore, as you said, it would also not prove an external attack on the plane, because the crew was definitely aware of the Iran-USA confrontation and missile strike, so if engine would have exploded by itself during takeoff, they would most probably assume that they were shot down in a military conflict rather than suspect such enormous engine mechanical failure.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:34 am

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
The two main things that concern me are...

1. Lack of contact from the crew with normal ADS-B until data stops.
2. Mechanical failure listed as the cause within an hour of the accident.


Could number 2 just be bad practise and their genuine assumption rather than suspicious ?

At first I assumed they would say 2 because they knew they had accidentally took the plane down with a missile and wanted to cover up

Now I'm thinking they've said 2 because they know a missile wasn't involved from them or anyone else (nobody has disputed this at all)

What they can't be sure of is exactly what mechanical failure bought the plane down and what other than a missile could be involved

Why would they rule out other foul play as possible?
 
aw70
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:35 am

Interested wrote:
"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources - three Americans, one European and the Canadian - who asked not to be named, told Reuters."

Reuters unlikely to make something like that up??


Note that under the very specific circumstances we are looking at here (Western powers probably trying to do their utmost to prevent escalation into a full-blown war), there might be a politically motivated consensus to downplay this incident no matter what actually happened. From a policy viewpoint, this would make a lot of sense, especially as a missile being fired at this plane would almost certainly have been a tragic mistake on the part of Iranian air defences, and not intentional. Not that I'm definitely saying it actually was a shootdown: but if it had been, I could totally see the Western intelligence community throwing the Iranians a stick towards de-escalation by not rubbing their nose in it.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:37 am

sgrow787 wrote:
Interested wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Kill rate of a TOR-M1 is between 92-95%:

https://defense-update.com/20070529_tor.html


Thanks

How noticeable would one of those missiles launched at night be to the public in the surrounding areas.



Pretty noticeable:

https://youtu.be/xP5mnkk41JE?t=47


Even more so at night
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:40 am

aw70 wrote:
Interested wrote:
"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources - three Americans, one European and the Canadian - who asked not to be named, told Reuters."

Reuters unlikely to make something like that up??


Note that under the very specific circumstances we are looking at here (Western powers probably trying to do their utmost to prevent escalation into a full-blown war), there might be a politically motivated consensus to downplay this incident no matter what actually happened. From a policy viewpoint, this would make a lot of sense, especially as a missile being fired at this plane would almost certainly have been a tragic mistake on the part of Iranian air defences, and not intentional. Not that I'm definitely saying it actually was a shootdown: but if it had been, I could totally see the Western intelligence community throwing the Iranians a stick towards de-escalation by not rubbing their nose in it.


Very risky to think they can all keep that a secret together with the lack of trust between them all

Think they owe it to the victims to not get involved in a cover up

Don't think any relationship is there between US and Iran let alone any others to all conspire together to put a lid on this

Western world not at fault here to help Iran in this way

I get your point but I'm sceptical

None of them know what other footage/evidence may be out there etc to cover up
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:42 am

Daimler wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
xmp125a wrote:

Since at this stage we all operate on very noisy and unreliable data, we should really talk in probabilities (and understand them as well -- unlike the media that blamed Nate Silver for assigning Trump "only" 30% probability to win).

So back to the topic.

I'd say that machine gun fire inside the cabin has about 0.1% probability to down the airliner in the manner we have seen (and on the data we can reasonably trust). First, the pilots would probably notify ATC or at least change the transponder code (hijacking). Second, I don't know about security in Tehran airport, but Tehran itself is not a war zone, it is not Baghdad, not even a typical US inner city overflown with guns. So someone bringing a machine gun onto an airplane is basically unbelievable.

Now, to divide the rest 99.9%, IMHO.

0.9% intentional downing by a state actor, either Iran or US (fully aware that it is passenger airplane)
19% intentional downing by a MANPADS, operated by some kind of guerilla or rogue force inside Iran
50% of iran making a tragic mistake with nervous and trigger-happy air defences which expected massive retaliation after hitting US bases with missiles
20% uncontained engine failure or other technical fault
20% some kind of unplanned accidental interference with US or Iran military operation (collision with the US drone, unfortunate collateral damage in legitimate Iran action to shoot down existing US aircraft or drone, etc).

I have assigned highest probability to iran's tragic mistake due to Iran being very tame about this incident and claiming basically immediately that it was not downed by a missile. Please note the usual fiery rhetoric from Iran about USA and the West in general (the great Satan etc.) Claiming that it wasn't a missile basically when aircraft barely touched the ground reveals that they know more than they are saying and the tame reaction basically means that they feel at least partly responsible for the downing - or they are sure there were no missiles in vicinity, therefore technical fault. MANPADS or any organized guerilla force in such close vicinity of Tehran airport and indeed urban city itself would be also a massive humiliation to Iran, so that would probably met with subdued silence as well.

Otherwise they would be screaming all over, after all there were two busloads of Iranians on that plane!

Note (0.9% still means that the outcome is possible... but very unlikely, lesson Nate Silver and Trump election).



Also it should be noted mechanical failures of equipment can create a variety of loud noises that may also happen in rapid succession. https://youtu.be/cR8Tr5T0CFQ?t=25s (example of loud scary noise happening repeatedly, not of machine gun like noise)

It's possible the rumor they are reporting is true, but based on misidentified scary loud noises.


I have found original article about this call from stewardess and it does not state anything about "machine gun fire in cabin", direct translation is actually - "we were shot upon", which knowing the context I would interpret as "we were shot down" by something like Anti-Aircraft Artillery or gunfire. Not a missile because for that case a different word is commonly used. However, if this call is even true - these may not be actual words said by stewardess but what the called person had perceived and remembered. Furthermore, as you said, it would also not prove an external attack on the plane, because the crew was definitely aware of the Iran-USA confrontation and missile strike, so if engine would have exploded by itself during takeoff, they would most probably assume that they were shot down in a military conflict rather than suspect such enormous engine mechanical failure.


If genuine won't more calls emerge etc
 
mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:44 am

PixelFlight wrote:
mysfit wrote:
As far as the video, there's no way of knowing how long the plane was in trouble BEFORE filming started.

I evaluate that the time between the ADS-B loss and the ground impact is about 2 minutes, based on the fact that this is about the same distance from the airport and the loss of ADS-B, and that it toke about 3 minutes to travel that distance but with speed increasing according to ADS-B data. The video is about half a minute long, so the first event could be as far as 1.5 minutes before the start of the video.

Ok. I sit corrected, we do have some idea.

It would seem the video captured the last 30 seconds from 2min loss of ADS-B. Meaning the video missed a fair amount.

Thank you Pixelflight
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:45 am

Interested wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Insider job would explain lack of communication whilst they were bringing the plane down.

Gun and bomb together would explain pilots not communicating if gun used on the pilots or one bomb used near the pilots

Maybe don't even need a bomb. Can the gun cause the fire

When it was pilot suicide I'm sure all the early discussion was there must have been a catastrophic event in cockpit to take the pilot out and the plane had just flew itself to the ground etc

Then insider job answered all the questions

Doesn't insider job potentially answer all the questions here?


No, it does not explain the fireball, sorry.


So internal bomb and/or machine gun can't create the fireball?

Why not?


Because you would need extremely powerful device, placed near the fuel tanks, for the airplane to "explode" mid air, because certain amount of fuel would be needed to vaporize enough fuel. Puncturing the tanks with machine gun fire would create a leak, not a fireball. That leak perhaps could ignite from the engines, but you would need some time shooting at the tank to achieve enough possibility of large-scale fire. And hopefully in that time, passengers would jump on you from behind and stop you from doing it, and pilots would communicate emergency (as they would have no other job to do than to quickly turn around and land, so their first action would be to contact ATC).

So, the gun theory does not fit. Large bomb, strategically placed near the fuel tanks fit. But it would somehow indicate gross negligence with security protocols Teheran, which is a very far fetched idea. I believe many outsiders have mental image of Iran being some kind of lawless war zone. It is not. It is exactly opposite. It is quite oppressive country and as many tourists can vouch, basically safe for islamic laws abiding tourists. So, unless we accept that the bomb was placed by a state actor (why?) then it is not very likely.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:50 am

mysfit wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
mysfit wrote:
As far as the video, there's no way of knowing how long the plane was in trouble BEFORE filming started.

I evaluate that the time between the ADS-B loss and the ground impact is about 2 minutes, based on the fact that this is about the same distance from the airport and the loss of ADS-B, and that it toke about 3 minutes to travel that distance but with speed increasing according to ADS-B data. The video is about half a minute long, so the first event could be as far as 1.5 minutes before the start of the video.

Ok. I sit corrected, we do have some idea.

It would seem the video captured the last 30 seconds from 2min loss of ADS-B. Meaning the video missed a fair amount.

Thank you Pixelflight

Still to be verified, it's just my own evaluation.

Note: the video was taken from a location about 10 km from the position of the ADS-B loss, so if any noticeable sound was generated at that moment, it would still take about half a minute to reach the guy that have take the video. We don't know yet if it was the light or the sound that motivated the guy to take the video. I think it was possible that he started to take the video when he realized that the trajectory was going back in the direction of the town. This could explain why the video start only half a minute before impact. In any case, that video is the best evidence we have today about what was happening in flight: fire with debris detaching.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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OA940
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:51 am

kennethP3 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
All I have to say is that there is nothing credible proving any theory atm, and yall are just pretending to be the NTSB. The missile theory has no evidence now that the ''shrapnel'' turned out to be just pebbles.

It was a blurry image where pebbles were mistaken for shrapnel damage. There are others, clearer pictures, showing holes in the fuselage


I haven't seen any particularly high-res images that clearly show any hole, and those tiny blurred ass pics are clearly not trustworthy
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mysfit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:53 am

I think it's a mistake at this point to base assumptions of cause on various government reactions and our expectations of them. That's all such a cluster and can send you down all kinds of rabbit holes.

I'd stick to facts. Video and physical evidence in proper perspective. Like timing. And yes there is an image of part of a missile but it's such a tight in shot who knows when and where that's from.

I'm curious if the black boxes have data from the final 2 minutes.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:56 am

PixelFlight wrote:
Still to be verified, it's just my own evaluation.

Note: the video was taken from a location about 10 km from the position of the ADS-B loss, so if any noticeable sound was generated at that moment, it would still take about half a minute to reach the guy that have take the video. We don't know yet if it was the light or the sound that motivated the guy to take the video. I think it was possible that he started to take the video when he realized that the trajectory was going back in the direction of the town. This could explain why the video start only half a minute before impact. In any case, that video is the best evidence we have today about what was happening in flight: fire with debris detaching.


Oxygen cannisters?

Edit: or that old stand by, lithium batteries.
Last edited by mysfit on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:57 am

I have seen people talk about a possible drone collision, which would also be a plausible theory. A collision with a larger drone could be violent enough bring the plane down..
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:58 am

Interested wrote:
Daimler wrote:
Jouhou wrote:


Also it should be noted mechanical failures of equipment can create a variety of loud noises that may also happen in rapid succession. https://youtu.be/cR8Tr5T0CFQ?t=25s (example of loud scary noise happening repeatedly, not of machine gun like noise)

It's possible the rumor they are reporting is true, but based on misidentified scary loud noises.


I have found original article about this call from stewardess and it does not state anything about "machine gun fire in cabin", direct translation is actually - "we were shot upon", which knowing the context I would interpret as "we were shot down" by something like Anti-Aircraft Artillery or gunfire. Not a missile because for that case a different word is commonly used. However, if this call is even true - these may not be actual words said by stewardess but what the called person had perceived and remembered. Furthermore, as you said, it would also not prove an external attack on the plane, because the crew was definitely aware of the Iran-USA confrontation and missile strike, so if engine would have exploded by itself during takeoff, they would most probably assume that they were shot down in a military conflict rather than suspect such enormous engine mechanical failure.


If genuine won't more calls emerge etc


Who knows, I would imagine a panic and screams onboard as the plane was on fire and this stewardess could be the only person calm enough to make one last call... Let's wait and see what investigators find and hope they will also check if this call actually happened or not.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:19 pm

lowbank wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
This is the picture that shows the holes. This is not the same piece as the other photos that were likely showing rocks and debris. Image



That’s the one I was on about earlier.

I think that’s the underside of the tail plane, the horizontal stabiliser and the elevator..

How that’s got holes in it I do not know, I have never seen damage there from an engine failure.


From falling out of the sky at velocity into that patch full of trees and what looks like playground equipment?

Honestly, a few holes and gashes seems extremely likely in those circumstances
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oschkosch
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:25 pm

wow, lots of conspiracy theories going on here. Ok I didn't expect anything less.


Maybe it was Qatar that shot the plane down, to prove to UAE and Saudi that they are not on Irans side anymore? Obviously this is just sarcasm.....

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sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:27 pm

CPHGuard wrote:
sevenair wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


It all seemed normal up to 8000. Then the aircraft went silent.


I'm not 100% sure that 8000 is correct.
A user earlier in this thread wrote:

"Some more information regarding the airport:
- IKA airport elevation is 3305ft.
- According FR24 the aircraft reached around 8000ftMSL. This is "only" 4700ft AGL."


The data shows altitude, not height
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:28 pm

CPHGuard wrote:
sevenair wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Then again, there are CCTV-cameras in Teheran. Such recordings would maybe show the launching of a rocket, similar to the videos we often see from Tel Aviv when they intercept rockets. Okay, the typical Teheran citizen would most probably not share the recordings of his CCTV camera showing how an Iranian rocket hits a commercial airliner, but still.

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


It all seemed normal up to 8000. Then the aircraft went silent.


I'm not 100% sure that 8000 is correct.
A user earlier in this thread wrote:

"Some more information regarding the airport:
- IKA airport elevation is 3305ft.
- According FR24 the aircraft reached around 8000ftMSL. This is "only" 4700ft AGL."


8000 feet is
Last edited by sevenair on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:28 pm

Interested wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Interested wrote:

Thanks

How noticeable would one of those missiles launched at night be to the public in the surrounding areas.



Pretty noticeable:

https://youtu.be/xP5mnkk41JE?t=47


Even more so at night


I lived couple of years in Israel 1km away from an Iron Dome launch site and i can tell you from my own experience that rockets are less noticeable at night, during day they leave a smoke plume behind them that is easily seen from a far distance and a spectator knows exactly where to look, at night the only thing you see is the fire behind them and as they fly away it becomes smaller and smaller, and if a spectator is not looking in the correct location he can easily miss it.

Viper911
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:38 pm

Could unsafe cargo like Li batteries cause an uncontained inflight fire capable of bringing down a 737? Aircraft would have been full of fuel for the medium haul trip to Kiev which could have contributed to the fire.
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Aviation737
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:40 pm

Would someone be kind enough to tell me what sort of mechanical failure would cause the fuel to ignite?
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:40 pm

The big thing that makes me discount a missile theory, is that we've not heard a single statement, tweet, instagram comment, facebook post, or video of -anything- going upwards towards the plane. Coupled with statements from the intel community discounting any report of a missile, I'm starting to wonder.

On top of that, we have allegations of a relatively decent sized missile fragment. But no statement of where that fragment was found. Moreover, the fragment appears to be linked to a type of missile that does not result in shrapnel (unlike the BUK missile in MH17). Yet people are searching crash scene videos in an attempt to find shrapnel.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:41 pm

Aviation Herald have updated the story with his own communication with the IAB about the missile head speculatively related image found on the internet.
The IAB responded that there have no evidence like that so far.
http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0

Something new to me: "The chairman indicated the AIB plans to release a preliminary first report in English during Jan 9th 2020."
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:41 pm

A twitter account @TombStoneWyatt tweeted this:

Our military shooting down the missiles from Iran last night ! Our technology is like Star Wars compared to flint stones when it comes US to Iran !!! Watch electronic 50 rounds per minute gunnery take them down as they come ! RTed if U like #TornadoTrump


In the video it shows hundreds of small projectiles flying toward missiles and taking them down. However I'm not sure this was at the time of the incident as the sky seems to be at twilight or early sunrise so I don't think it was from the same time as the incident but it got me thinking.

Do we know yet where the missiles were fired from? What is the range of these anti missile projectiles?
Last edited by sevenair on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
zitterbewegung
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:46 pm

zitterbewegung wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
So that leaves three options:

1. Accidentally shot down by missile.
2. Bomb detonated onboard aircraft.
3. Catastrophic failure of engines to such a degree that it instantly ruptures fuel tanks and sets the whole plane on fire within a split second.

.. at a time when Iranian anti-aircraft crews were on high alert and likely very nervous for an incoming American airstrike. During a time no CIVILIAN airliners were supposed to be in the sky in this area. The SAM operators would only expect military aircraft at this time. (In theory).


What if option 1 is not a missile, but AA gunfire (like KS-19 or S-60, both operated by Iran)? Here are the reasons, that make me think this may be more probable:
1) I think it is easier to accidentally fire the gun, without intending to down a plane.
2) The fragmentation shell pattern is more random and may explain the multiple punctures on the fuselage (if the pictures really show them).
3) The altitude of the impact (8000 ft) is completely within the range of the mentioned AA guns.
In addition, all of Iran's AA missile defenses were probably defending targets with higher military value and the defense of the international airport (low priority for political reasons) may have been assigned to AA batteries.
Here is a possible scenario:
All the AA crews are at high tension expecting US counterstrikes. The AA guns are loaded. An AA battery usually is guided by a targeting radar; the guns follow the target automatically, but each is fired manually by the #1 gunner. The radar operator decides to track a civilian plane for practice (or may be ordered to do so). This may have been done before with unloaded guns. The gunner either forgets that the gun is loaded and pushes the trigger pedal, or does this accidentally.
I am no expert, so this scenario can be completely stupid.

Here are some more arguments why an accidental firing of an air defense gun is more probable than accidental launch of a missile:
The crews may be mobilized reservists who haven't touched their equipment for years. The equipment might be in a poor technical condition. Wikipedia says that Iranian S-60 were taken out of commission. If they were recently recommissioned, they may have not been maintained for a long time.
Of course, it is much harder to hit a plane with a single shell than with a missile, but if the plane was moving in a straight line, steadily gaining elevation and the AA battery was on the flight path, it is plausible.
Another clue is the video of the falling plane. The operator was triggered by something - probably a loud noise. Maybe it was an explosion from the plane, but it was far away. A much stronger sound will come from a nearby AA gun firing. It makes a louder sound than the launch of a MANPAD.
 
SimonL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:49 pm

sevenair wrote:
A twitter account @TombStoneWyatt tweeted this:

Our military shooting down the missiles from Iran last night ! Our technology is like Star Wars compared to flint stones when it comes US to Iran !!! Watch electronic 50 rounds per minute gunnery take them down as they come ! RTed if U like #TornadoTrump


In the video it shows hundreds of small projectiles flying toward missiles and taking them down. However I'm not sure this was at the time of the incident as the sky seems to be at twilight or early sunrise.

Do we know yet where the missiles were fired from?


Given the images of the damage from the missile attack its apparent that the defense failed to shoot down the Iranian missiles (or atleast a bunch of them) It's a bit OT but shows that the twitter guy isnt super reliable. Anyhow: US missile defense would engage the missiles in their terminal phase and would not be anywhere near the aircraft.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:49 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Could unsafe cargo like Li batteries cause an uncontained inflight fire capable of bringing down a 737? Aircraft would have been full of fuel for the medium haul trip to Kiev which could have contributed to the fire.

Fundamentally, batteries could do that. But we've never seen a cargo fire destroy an aircraft this rapidly without any prior warning. The closest would be MS804, where (presumably caused by a personal electronics device) a cockpit & electronics bay fire took out the flight control and electronics before the crew could call mayday.
Last edited by mxaxai on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
aw70
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:49 pm

Interested wrote:
Very risky to think they can all keep that a secret together with the lack of trust between them all

Think they owe it to the victims to not get involved in a cover up

Don't think any relationship is there between US and Iran let alone any others to all conspire together to put a lid on this

Western world not at fault here to help Iran in this way

I get your point but I'm sceptical

None of them know what other footage/evidence may be out there etc to cover up


Please note that I did not say anything about considering such a scenario to be particularly likely. Also note that what I am talking about here is not keeping this under wraps permanently. As the days go on after the droning of Suleimani, things slowly cool down, and the spectre of war recedes - iff no new tinder is thrown on the fire. Maybe the intention here is simply to not anger the Iranians by pointing fingers, when precisely zero gains could be had from pointing them in the first place. Even if there was something to point at, such as a stray missile fired in error brining down an airliner.

It might simply not suit the goals of Western intelligence agencies at this point in time to escalate anything by pointing anything of the sort out right now. Time will tell.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:55 pm

aw70 wrote:
Interested wrote:
Very risky to think they can all keep that a secret together with the lack of trust between them all

Think they owe it to the victims to not get involved in a cover up

Don't think any relationship is there between US and Iran let alone any others to all conspire together to put a lid on this

Western world not at fault here to help Iran in this way

I get your point but I'm sceptical

None of them know what other footage/evidence may be out there etc to cover up


Please note that I did not say anything about considering such a scenario to be particularly likely. Also note that what I am talking about here is not keeping this under wraps permanently. As the days go on after the droning of Suleimani, things slowly cool down, and the spectre of war recedes - iff no new tinder is thrown on the fire. Maybe the intention here is simply to not anger the Iranians by pointing fingers, when precisely zero gains could be had from pointing them in the first place. Even if there was something to point at, such as a stray missile fired in error brining down an airliner.

It might simply not suit the goals of Western intelligence agencies at this point in time to escalate anything by pointing anything of the sort out right now. Time will tell.


Yep the western world not committed to anything either way yet tbf
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:00 pm

seat1a wrote:
Presume for a minute it's a missile. Isn't there a radar track of that, or some satellite proof of that track near the UIA 737?


Would a manpad have any appreciable radar return?
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smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:04 pm

Ukraine investigators still open to the idea it was a hostile act

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-jet ... 1578558346
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:04 pm

heyjoojoo wrote:
Did the US deploy any missile defense systems during the Iranian attack? I haven’t heard any mention of this in any of the reporting up to this point.

I wouldn’t put it past the Iranians to let a civilian airliner go into harms way and then provoke a counter-response the ends up getting the airliner shot down, all in the name of propaganda.

Remember, they did this once before with Iran Air Flight 655


There's missile defense systems in the uae and out in the Indian ocean with the cvsg but realistically nothing with the range to hit over Tehran. Only Iran would have AAA capability over Tehran
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:09 pm

xmp125a wrote:
aden23 wrote:
No one here seems to have mentioned that 2 days ago, Iran’s president threatened to blow up a plane similar to the Lockerbie bombing.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/


Are you serious? Plane departing from their own airport with their own citizens on board?


I've completely missed this.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani sent a threat to shoot down an aircraft just a couple of days ago. That is significant.

He tweeted:

"Those who refer to the number 52 should also remember the number 290. #IR655 Never threaten the Iranian nation."

290 refers to the people killed in the shoot down of an Iran Air A300by a U.S. Navy destroyer in 1988. And it was suspected Lockerbie 5 months later was retaliation for this incident.

The Ukraine flight had both Iranians and a large number of Canadians onboard.

Iran is known to sponsor terrorism throughout the region. Is it possible that some faction viewed these Canadians as the closest thing to an American they could find, and that they read Rouhani's tweet as a go ahead message to either shoot down or blow up the aircraft?

Nobody should ignore the threat Rouhani made. If this was a pure accident, it's the strangest freak aircraft accident I've ever heard of.

The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/
Last edited by JetBuddy on Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
CPHGuard
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:10 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
Would someone be kind enough to tell me what sort of mechanical failure would cause the fuel to ignite?


Massive uncontained engine failure.
Ejection of a major piece of the fan-disc upwards through the wing, breaching the fuel tank.
Fuel gets mixed with air, and ignites on exhaust.

What happened to the AF Concorde is kind of similar, except the fact that it was a piece lost by another aircraft on the runway, that punctured the tire, where debris was thrown at the wing, and the shockwave made the tank burst.
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:16 pm

"...an engine malfunction", with an Iranian official claiming the engine had burst into flames
Well, yeah. Since an AA missile is very likely to hit you in an engine, that wouldn’t be a total lie, now would it?

the crash was caused by “technical difficulties.”

Yeah. An AA missile exploding will certainly induce a bunch of “technical difficulties: loss of lift, loss of thrust, fires, loss of structural integrity, loss of pressure….
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:16 pm

N14AZ wrote:

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


No-one alive knows how high the plane was when the fire started but when the transponder stopped in was at an altitude of 8000 ft which is 4500 ft above ground in that area.
 
ktof
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:22 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
aden23 wrote:
No one here seems to have mentioned that 2 days ago, Iran’s president threatened to blow up a plane similar to the Lockerbie bombing.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/


Are you serious? Plane departing from their own airport with their own citizens on board?


I've completely missed this.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani sent a threat to shoot down an aircraft just a couple of days ago. That is significant.

He tweeted:

"Those who refer to the number 52 should also remember the number 290. #IR655 Never threaten the Iranian nation."

290 refers to the people killed in the shoot down of an Iran Air A300by a U.S. Navy destroyer in 1988. And it was suspected Lockerbie 5 months later was retaliation for this incident.

The Ukraine flight had both Iranians and a large number of Canadians onboard.

Iran is known to sponsor terrorism throughout the region. Is it possible that some faction viewed these Canadians as the closest thing to an American they could find, and that they read Rouhani's tweet as a go ahead message to either shoot down or blow up the aircraft?

Nobody should ignore the threat Rouhani made. If this was a pure accident, it's the strangest freak aircraft accident I've ever heard of.

The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/


If your source is the s*n, just don't bother posting it on here.

Scummy red top newspaper with 0 journalistic respect here in the UK.
 
marcogr12
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:23 pm

Question: has there ever been in the past uncontained engine failure so severe,that would lead to a crash but would also cause fire that would destroy communication channels on the plane?Why the pilots never reported engine failure or sent 'mayday'? Isnt there a logbook where supposedly there would have been data of mechanical/engine problems registered/faulty wiring etc?Previous inspection of the plane (which was rather new)?
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:24 pm

THS214 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:

I could check on the first pages of this thread but it’s easier to ask here: how high was the 737 when the fire started? I guess there is a minimum height an aircraft has to reach before it can be shot down by a missile.


No-one alive knows how high the plane was when the fire started but when the transponder stopped in was at an altitude of 8000 ft which is 4500 ft above ground in that area.


Stopped suddenly.

This was no mechanical issue, no reason to pretend that this was.

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