Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2571
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:41 pm

LH526 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
LH526 wrote:


Why would the warhead come down so close the actual wreckage (within yards) when it hit the plane minutes earlier and quite some miles away?


The crash site / wreckage area is quite large. Hundreds of meters in multiple directions.

That's not the warhead itself. It's the tip of the missile, likely containing some actuators steering the control surfaces / fins during flight. It would detach before or during detonation of the warhead. The warhead itself explodes sideways in a circle, not forward. That would explain why the tip is intact.


You are right, but it does not explain why the missile-tip came to rest within a hundred yards of the debris field when the actual impact is supposed to be miles away.


I don't know. It would have to follow the same trajectory as the aircraft itself somehow.

I'm not an expert in ballistics, so I don't know how to calculate that. We would also have to know where it was launched from.

One explenation could be the following: The last image, the one with the Ruptly watermark - shows a ditch or a canal of some sort with concrete on both sides. The first two images show the missile tip laying in this ditch. The last image is supposidly from the crash site, but it doesn't depict the missile itself. The ditch might run for miles for all I know.

I'm trying to locate the crash site on Google Earth to find this ditch.
 
majano
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:44 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
majano wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
We have some more information and verification of the Tor-M1 SAM system missile
https://www.facebook.com/Peshmerganor/

User T4tbH, who appeared to be in the know, commented on the first picture of the missile nnosecone yesterday. His conclusion on page 14 (Post #680) was that the version of the missile was not in Iran's inventory. No one contradicted him at the time. So, in keeping an open mind about this, do these new pictures in any way invalidate T4tbH's conclusion?


Yep, I read that. He's talking about if it's an 9M331 or 9M330 missile. I can't verify what he's saying or if the report he quoted was accurate. Or if Iran has taken delivery of more than that one batch of 1200 missiles at a later time.

But it would be great if he came back and elaborated on what he meant. Or if he's done further research.

This site has some interesting info on these missiles:

https://www.ausairpower.net/APA-9K331-Tor.html

I visited the site above and found indeed some interesting information. According to it, only the 9M331 missile was sold to a number of export customers, including Iran. The 9M330 and 9M332 were therefore only ever owned or used by the Soviet / Russian forces.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:48 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
The source is Iranian president Hassan Rouhani's tweet:

Image

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 85824?s=20

But the 290 were their people, right? And on this flight 147 were too. Shooting down an aircraft full of own people, departing from and flying over the own capitol impossibly can be a hostile act against anybody else.

Just to show how absurd that is: Think if the UK during the Falkland war would have shot down an airliner departing from and flying over London from a third country with no Argentiniens on board but a bunch of Brits and other people. That is so absurd, that we can rule out a willing act in this case.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:50 pm

Daimler, please can you also post the source for the air hostess calling her mother saying they were being fired upon? Sorry for multiple posts, it seems all of mine have to be approved individually by a moderator and I am not permitted to PM you. Cheers.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:50 pm

Interested wrote:
Terrorist on board has weapons to take out pilots and bomb(s)/ suicide vest to detonate etc

Would explain fireball and no communication from pilots

Or bomb explodes and takes pilots out at same time as starting fire in plane
No. Bomb that kills pilots is too far away to puncture the tanks. The bomb that punctures the tanks does not kill the pilots. Jet fuel is pretty heavy stuff, it is not gasoline. For it to produce fireball you have to mix it with air, that means that the explosion needs enough force to vaporize the fuel. We are talking about a bomb of size one could bring on board of the plane. Yes, a 10kg device in cargo hold could probably vaporize both the fuel and the pilots, but this is not your typical airliner bomb.

Fact is, even fatal bombing of the plane is very unlikely to produce a fireball, because terrorists want the bomb to be small to be easily hidden/smuggled, and one does not need a fireball to totally destroy a plane. Small bomb that causes just enough structural damage to sever control lines or make large enough hole in the fuselage.

You are stubbornly referring to explosions as seen in movies. Real life explosions are NOT like that.To produce movie effects, large amounts of fuel (e.g. gasoline in plastic bags) are placed next to small charges, which are enough to destroy the bags and spray the fuel around. This then gives a "movie fireball".

But in reality, bomb detonations basically never produce fireball, because detonation is completely different process from burning. All energy that would go into fireball heat and light would be wasted energy, as it would not contribute to the destructive force of the detonation.

So, the only way that explosive device in the cabin/cargo hold would produce fireball is if it is either well placed to target fuel tanks, or it is large enough that its shockwave or shrapnels penetrate fuel tank, with enough energy to disperse enough fuel for a fireball. "large enough" and "filled with shrapnel" is something even the worst airport security in the world would detect if you try to take it on the plane.

Missile, on the other hand, has all the ingredients: sufficient charge (much more than what anyone could hope to smuggle on board) and shrapnel.
 
yurieu
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:07 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:53 pm

Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:54 pm

757gb wrote:
Pudelhund wrote:
Why would the tip of the missile be intact?


Exactly. In all the pictures I've seen of the alleged missile, nobody has asked that question.


I posted a picture earlier that shows the same type of missile, also has its tip intact
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19183
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:56 pm

LH526 wrote:
You are right, but it does not explain why the missile-tip came to rest within a hundred yards of the debris field when the actual impact is supposed to be miles away.


I don't think it's been proven conclusively one way or the other as to the exact location of the alleged missile debris.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1026
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:56 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
There nothing that allow to reliably link the two close images of the speculated missile head with the images of the crash site, as there are many similar structure in that region.
I notice that in the close pictures there are a hard road in a side and a field without grass in the other side. But in the alleged surrounding annotated image with the structure, there are grass all the way along one side of the structure and no hard road in that location, as shown by the two screenshots I grabbed from zoom in of online photos and videos of the crash site.

Close photos:
Image
Image

Alleged surrounding photo:
Image

Screenshots of zoom in of the same location:
Image
Image

I suspect that the missile head is not at the crash site.


I think it is from the crash site. The crash site is huge, it's not one concentrated area.

With regards to pavement on one side, and dirt on the other.. if you look at the Ruptly image, it seems like there is concrete / hard surface on the far side with the vehicles, and dirt on the near side. Even the vegetation is the same type, and has exactly the same colors in all the pictures. Green and red/brown.

The "Ruptly" image is definitively at the crash site location, but the close missile head images are not at that location: no hard road and not enough grass. The Annoted "Ruptly" image is probably a fake that let think that the missiles head is at the crash location, but I conclude that this is not the case. There are many many structure like this in that region.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:57 pm

yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10735
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:57 pm

yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?

A cabin decompression wouldn’t render them instantly unconscious. They were only at 8000ft above sea level- you can fly that high in an unpressurized aircraft.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:58 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The source is Iranian president Hassan Rouhani's tweet:

Image

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 85824?s=20

But the 290 were their people, right? And on this flight 147 were too. Shooting down an aircraft full of own people, departing from and flying over the own capitol impossibly can be a hostile act against anybody else.

Just to show how absurd that is: Think if the UK during the Falkland war would have shot down an airliner departing from and flying over London from a third country with no Argentiniens on board but a bunch of Brits and other people. That is so absurd, that we can rule out a willing act in this case.


Someone suggested they shot the wrong plane down by mistake There's a more American one that would have been similar time but the delays messed things up etc.

It's not inconceivable I guess.
 
User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 1908
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:59 pm

Daimler wrote:
Strange, I was just going to provide the source but it seems the moderator has deleted my post on first results of Ukraininian investigators.
Anyway, posting this again - after examination of engine leftovers investigators found no evidence of burn damage. Therefore they conclude that fire observed on the video was not coming from engines.
Here is the source article: https://censor.net.ua/news/3168988/na_d ... toyatelstv
It is a respectable Ukrainian news site. Unfortunately, they don't have this article in English, but you can use google translate.

So,as someone posted here before, the question is - can the engine explosion due to mechanical failure leave no burn marks on the engine itself?


Thanks for reposting with a source.

As a reminder for everyone: When posting facts please always provide a link to your source, otherwise posts will be deleted. Thanks.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 258
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:59 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?


No. It would pop your ears from a rapid pressure change, but that’s about it. You wouldn’t black out at 8,000 feet. That’s almost a standard cabin altitude at cruise.
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:59 pm

scbriml wrote:
LH526 wrote:
You are right, but it does not explain why the missile-tip came to rest within a hundred yards of the debris field when the actual impact is supposed to be miles away.


I don't think it's been proven conclusively one way or the other as to the exact location of the alleged missile debris.


Yeah it's entirely possible that the supposed missile was miles away from the rest of the debris field
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:00 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Terrorist on board has weapons to take out pilots and bomb(s)/ suicide vest to detonate etc

Would explain fireball and no communication from pilots

Or bomb explodes and takes pilots out at same time as starting fire in plane
No. Bomb that kills pilots is too far away to puncture the tanks. The bomb that punctures the tanks does not kill the pilots. Jet fuel is pretty heavy stuff, it is not gasoline. For it to produce fireball you have to mix it with air, that means that the explosion needs enough force to vaporize the fuel. We are talking about a bomb of size one could bring on board of the plane. Yes, a 10kg device in cargo hold could probably vaporize both the fuel and the pilots, but this is not your typical airliner bomb.

Fact is, even fatal bombing of the plane is very unlikely to produce a fireball, because terrorists want the bomb to be small to be easily hidden/smuggled, and one does not need a fireball to totally destroy a plane. Small bomb that causes just enough structural damage to sever control lines or make large enough hole in the fuselage.

You are stubbornly referring to explosions as seen in movies. Real life explosions are NOT like that.To produce movie effects, large amounts of fuel (e.g. gasoline in plastic bags) are placed next to small charges, which are enough to destroy the bags and spray the fuel around. This then gives a "movie fireball".

But in reality, bomb detonations basically never produce fireball, because detonation is completely different process from burning. All energy that would go into fireball heat and light would be wasted energy, as it would not contribute to the destructive force of the detonation.

So, the only way that explosive device in the cabin/cargo hold would produce fireball is if it is either well placed to target fuel tanks, or it is large enough that its shockwave or shrapnels penetrate fuel tank, with enough energy to disperse enough fuel for a fireball. "large enough" and "filled with shrapnel" is something even the worst airport security in the world would detect if you try to take it on the plane.

Missile, on the other hand, has all the ingredients: sufficient charge (much more than what anyone could hope to smuggle on board) and shrapnel.


Two typical airliner bombs on the plane?

Or based on your reply one bomb that is not your typical airliner bomb
Last edited by Interested on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:01 pm

The standard departure out of IKA when flying towards UKBB would be straight out. Using the FR24 Data it looks like the aircraft did an early turn. As it is not known so far that there has been communication between the aircraft and the controllers, one might think that the crew did the turn for some unknown reason.

This might be an indication that the problem arose before the ADS-B data stopped.

In case of an engine failure an aircraft might leave the track because of thrust asymmetry. Normally this departure of the proposed track should be counteracted by the pilots. Nevertheless they might have been startled and turned a bit without realising it.

Blue is the SID and green the FR24 Data. Leaving the departure track to the north might indicate thrust loss on ENG 2 (right engine).

Image


The impact area indicated a track (orange) of around 160°.

Image


Therefore I conclude that the proposed track (red) after the ADS-B data stops towards the impact area must look at least like this:

Image

I took the timestamp at the impact position from the CCTV camera which shows the alley. It is not known if the timestamp is correct. Assuming the timestamp is local time and correct as well, the flight time after loosing ADS-B data towards impact is around 4min and 36sec.
My assumed ground track is around 13,75NM. The latest speed recorded by FR24 ist 275kts ground speed. An aircraft needs around 3min to cover that distance with 275kts ground speed.

So I conclude that either the red track is way to short or the crew slowed down or the CCTV timestamp is not correct. Nevertheless I expect the aircraft has flown the red track more or less than I have depicted on my third screenshot.

The cyan circles indicate the position of the ballad missile site which was brought up earlier.
http://wikimapia.org/22195465/Malard-missile-launch-site-Missile-base-at-a-depth-of-500-meters

Edit: Sources, Spelling
- FR24
- Pictures of the crash site from various internet pages and twitter
- IKA SID maps (which I can't post due to copyright issues - maybe someone else could)
Last edited by michi on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 187
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:05 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?


Certainly not. 8,000 feet is considered a safe cruising altitude indefinitely, after decompression.
 
Karlsands
Posts: 230
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:53 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:08 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Terrorist on board has weapons to take out pilots and bomb(s)/ suicide vest to detonate etc

Would explain fireball and no communication from pilots

Or bomb explodes and takes pilots out at same time as starting fire in plane
No. Bomb that kills pilots is too far away to puncture the tanks. The bomb that punctures the tanks does not kill the pilots. Jet fuel is pretty heavy stuff, it is not gasoline. For it to produce fireball you have to mix it with air, that means that the explosion needs enough force to vaporize the fuel. We are talking about a bomb of size one could bring on board of the plane. Yes, a 10kg device in cargo hold could probably vaporize both the fuel and the pilots, but this is not your typical airliner bomb.

Fact is, even fatal bombing of the plane is very unlikely to produce a fireball, because terrorists want the bomb to be small to be easily hidden/smuggled, and one does not need a fireball to totally destroy a plane. Small bomb that causes just enough structural damage to sever control lines or make large enough hole in the fuselage.

You are stubbornly referring to explosions as seen in movies. Real life explosions are NOT like that.To produce movie effects, large amounts of fuel (e.g. gasoline in plastic bags) are placed next to small charges, which are enough to destroy the bags and spray the fuel around. This then gives a "movie fireball".

But in reality, bomb detonations basically never produce fireball, because detonation is completely different process from burning. All energy that would go into fireball heat and light would be wasted energy, as it would not contribute to the destructive force of the detonation.

So, the only way that explosive device in the cabin/cargo hold would produce fireball is if it is either well placed to target fuel tanks, or it is large enough that its shockwave or shrapnels penetrate fuel tank, with enough energy to disperse enough fuel for a fireball. "large enough" and "filled with shrapnel" is something even the worst airport security in the world would detect if you try to take it on the plane.

Missile, on the other hand, has all the ingredients: sufficient charge (much more than what anyone could hope to smuggle on board) and shrapnel.

Gasoline and jet fuel only weigh .8 pounds different
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:08 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?


Certainly not. 8,000 feet is considered a safe cruising altitude indefinitely, after decompression.


Direct hit by a bomb works for a blackout though.
 
Daimler
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:08 pm

Also, BBC has talked with stewardess family and confirmed that there was no call made from an airplane during crash, so it was just a yellow press hoax.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-51048545
 
morrisond
Posts: 2791
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:08 pm

michi wrote:
The standard departure out of IKA when flying towards UKBB would be straight out. Using the FR24 Data it looks like the aircraft did an early turn. As it is not known so far that there has been communication between the aircraft and the controllers, one might think that the crew did the turn for some unknown reason.

This might be an indication that the problem arose before the ADS-B data stopped.

In case of an engine failure an aircraft might leave the track because of thrust asymmetry. Normally this departure of the proposed track should be counteracted by the pilots. Nevertheless they might have been startled and turned a bit without realising it.

Blue is the SID and green the FR24 Data. Leaving the departure track to the north might indicate thrust loss on ENG 2 (right engine).

Image


The impact area indicated a track (orange) of around 160°.

Image


Therefore I conclude that the proposed track (red) after the ADS-B data stops and the impact area must look at least like this:

Image

I took the timestamp at the impact position from the CCTV camera which shows the alley. It is not known if the timestamp is correct. Assuming the timestamp is local time and correct as well, the flight time after loosing ADS-B data towards impact is around 4min and 36sec.
My assumed ground track is around 13,75NM. The latest speed recorded by FR24 ist 275kts ground speed. An aircraft needs around 3min to cover that distance with 275kts ground speed.

So I conclude that either the red track is way to short or the crew slowed down or the CCTV timestamp is not correct. Nevertheless I expect the aircraft has flown the red track more or less than I have depicted on my third screenshot.

The cyan circles indicate the position of the ballad missile site which was brought up earlier.
http://wikimapia.org/22195465/Malard-missile-launch-site-Missile-base-at-a-depth-of-500-meters

Edit: Sources
- FR24
- Pictures of the crash site from various internet pages and twitter
- IKA SID maps (which I can't post due to copyright issues - maybe someone else could)


How long had they veered off the straight ahead track before loss of signal?
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2368
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:08 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?


Certainly not. 8,000 feet is considered a safe cruising altitude indefinitely, after decompression.


And considering the aircraft never went above that altitude, there wasn't any decompression to begin with ...
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2571
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:09 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
There nothing that allow to reliably link the two close images of the speculated missile head with the images of the crash site, as there are many similar structure in that region.
I notice that in the close pictures there are a hard road in a side and a field without grass in the other side. But in the alleged surrounding annotated image with the structure, there are grass all the way along one side of the structure and no hard road in that location, as shown by the two screenshots I grabbed from zoom in of online photos and videos of the crash site.

Close photos:
Image
Image

Alleged surrounding photo:
Image

Screenshots of zoom in of the same location:
Image
Image

I suspect that the missile head is not at the crash site.


I think it is from the crash site. The crash site is huge, it's not one concentrated area.

With regards to pavement on one side, and dirt on the other.. if you look at the Ruptly image, it seems like there is concrete / hard surface on the far side with the vehicles, and dirt on the near side. Even the vegetation is the same type, and has exactly the same colors in all the pictures. Green and red/brown.

The "Ruptly" image is definitively at the crash site location, but the close missile head images are not at that location: no hard road and not enough grass. The Annoted "Ruptly" image is probably a fake that let think that the missiles head is at the crash location, but I conclude that this is not the case. There are many many structure like this in that region.


I believe that the Ruptly image is from the crash site. And I believe it's the same ditch as in the first two photos with the missile tip in it.

However, that ditch might run for quite a long stretch in either direction. So the missile tip could be quite far from the crash site (which in itself is very large).

What is more likely?

That the missile tip (which we know comes from an SA-15 which Iran has plenty of) comes from the missile that allegedly shot down the aircraft.

- OR

That someone planted the missile tip there and took the pictures. Who carries around a spent SA-15 missile tip and placing it near the crash site within a short period of time, takes pictures, and uploads it to the internet?

The only other explenation would be if all the images were from somewhere else. But reverse image search can't find any of them uploaded previously to the internet.
 
Daimler
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:09 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Daimler, please can you also post the source for the air hostess calling her mother saying they were being fired upon? Sorry for multiple posts, it seems all of mine have to be approved individually by a moderator and I am not permitted to PM you. Cheers.


It was recently debunked by BBC, so that call was a lie. No sense digging any deeper. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-51048545
 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:11 pm

morrisond wrote:
How long had they veered off the straight ahead track before loss of signal?


It looks like around 43sec, depending which data point is the first one off the SID track.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:14 pm

litz wrote:
airhansa wrote:
Has this fire been brought up? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_120 It was a fairly large fire caused by a punctured fuel tank in the aftermath of maintenance work - a fuel leak caught on fire after contacting areas heated by the engine. Image


That fireball only happened after the airplane stopped at the gate, and the fuel flow from the holed tank dropped onto the hot exhaust manifold of the engine.

Prior to that point, the fuel flow dispersed harmlessly into the airstream.


This is my view on an engine fire as well - it simply cannot lead to: an uncontrolled loss of a plane, all communications lost between plane and ground, or the plane going up in a fireball. But that Air China incident is the closest I've seen to a total hull loss by fireball on a modern jet plane - an engine fire alone should be well contained if not extinguished swiftly.

What scenario would lead to: an uncontrolled loss of a plane, all communications lost between plane and ground, or the plane going up in a fireball, within a matter of minutes (if not seconds) after takeoff? All scenarios do not tick all three points within the given time period. Possible the fuel could have been leaking quite badly and banking the plane caused the fuel to spill onto the hull and set the hull alight - but again it would be ages for communications to be lost.
 
mysfit
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:15 pm

I don't believe those missile fragments are at the crash site.

Per numerous news articles previously linked, al Jazeera's and cnn, and the investigation website, the plane had turned back.

Per PixelFlights back of the envelope calculation, the aircraft crashed about 2 min post LOS. The video is 30 seconds long.

Something happened which prompted the plane to turn around. Initial reports were mech failure/overheating in an engine. I am assuming this is from some ACARS information.

There was a fire prior to the crash and the debris field is pretty spread out

My impression is some hot, fast fire. Anyone remember that plane at the gate in ChiNa which rapidly burned from the cargo hold straight up through the top? Right behind the cockpit?

Something burned hot and fast in a critical spot, IMO.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:19 pm

michi wrote:
The standard departure out of IKA when flying towards UKBB would be straight out. Using the FR24 Data it looks like the aircraft did an early turn. As it is not known so far that there has been communication between the aircraft and the controllers, one might think that the crew did the turn for some unknown reason.

This might be an indication that the problem arose before the ADS-B data stopped.

In case of an engine failure an aircraft might leave the track because of thrust asymmetry. Normally this departure of the proposed track should be counteracted by the pilots. Nevertheless they might have been startled and turned a bit without realising it.

Blue is the SID and green the FR24 Data. Leaving the departure track to the north might indicate thrust loss on ENG 2 (right engine).

Image


The impact area indicated a track (orange) of around 160°.

Image


Therefore I conclude that the proposed track (red) after the ADS-B data stops towards the impact area must look at least like this:

Image

I took the timestamp at the impact position from the CCTV camera which shows the alley. It is not known if the timestamp is correct. Assuming the timestamp is local time and correct as well, the flight time after loosing ADS-B data towards impact is around 4min and 36sec.
My assumed ground track is around 13,75NM. The latest speed recorded by FR24 ist 275kts ground speed. An aircraft needs around 3min to cover that distance with 275kts ground speed.

So I conclude that either the red track is way to short or the crew slowed down or the CCTV timestamp is not correct. Nevertheless I expect the aircraft has flown the red track more or less than I have depicted on my third screenshot.

The cyan circles indicate the position of the ballad missile site which was brought up earlier.
http://wikimapia.org/22195465/Malard-missile-launch-site-Missile-base-at-a-depth-of-500-meters

Edit: Sources, Spelling
- FR24
- Pictures of the crash site from various internet pages and twitter
- IKA SID maps (which I can't post due to copyright issues - maybe someone else could)


Has anyone posted a theory on the loss of the vertical fin far before the crash site? It might be a sign that the pilots were to aggressive in trying to control the plane.
 
VS11
Posts: 1662
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:20 pm

According to Bloomberg, Iran says jet tried to turn back.

"The Boeing Co. jet that crashed near Tehran on Wednesday tried to turn back after takeoff, Iran revealed in an initial report as Ukraine said it’s examining scenarios including a missile strike and terrorism."

Iran Says Crash Jet Tried to Turn Back, While Ukraine Probes Missile Theory
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
Last edited by VS11 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:21 pm

mysfit wrote:
Anyone remember that plane at the gate in ChiNa which rapidly burned from the cargo hold straight up through the top? Right behind the cockpit?


As mentioned above numerous times that fire only started when the aircraft was on the ground, the fuel flow from the leaking tank dripped on the exhaust of the engine.

mysfit wrote:
Something burned hot and fast in a critical spot, IMO.


It's never happened before so would be a first in commercial aviation, not impossible but unprecedented*

*Leading to a crash with no crew contact and normal radar/ADS-B.
Last edited by AeroplaneFreak on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 258
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:22 pm

mysfit wrote:
I don't believe those missile fragments are at the crash site.

Per numerous news articles previously linked, al Jazeera's and cnn, and the investigation website, the plane had turned back.

Per PixelFlights back of the envelope calculation, the aircraft crashed about 2 min post LOS. The video is 30 seconds long.

Something happened which prompted the plane to turn around. Initial reports were mech failure/overheating in an engine. I am assuming this is from some ACARS information.

There was a fire prior to the crash and the debris field is pretty spread out

My impression is some hot, fast fire. Anyone remember that plane at the gate in ChiNa which rapidly burned from the cargo hold straight up through the top? Right behind the cockpit?

Something burned hot and fast in a critical spot, IMO.

Yeah...a hot fast fire caused by a missile. Which also caused the engine fire/failure/overheating scenario.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:22 pm

I have three questions?

How long did the flight actually last from takeoff to crash?

Once it reached 8,000 feet and contact was lost how long til it crashed?

And is 8,000 feet when people on here think the fire started or was it before then?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:22 pm

mysfit wrote:
I don't believe those missile fragments are at the crash site.

Per numerous news articles previously linked, al Jazeera's and cnn, and the investigation website, the plane had turned back.

Per PixelFlights back of the envelope calculation, the aircraft crashed about 2 min post LOS. The video is 30 seconds long.

Something happened which prompted the plane to turn around. Initial reports were mech failure/overheating in an engine. I am assuming this is from some ACARS information.

There was a fire prior to the crash and the debris field is pretty spread out

My impression is some hot, fast fire. Anyone remember that plane at the gate in ChiNa which rapidly burned from the cargo hold straight up through the top? Right behind the cockpit?

Something burned hot and fast in a critical spot, IMO.


I suggested that a cargo fire could be one of the few suggestions that would allow for a fire so large which no one noticed for so long. Also for communications to be lost the fire would have had to have been well into the fuselage hull. The rapidness of the fire may suggest that it was either the cargo or something like furnishings which are too flammable.
 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:24 pm

airhansa wrote:
Has anyone posted a theory on the loss of the vertical fin far before the crash site? It might be a sign that the pilots were to aggressive in trying to control the plane.


The vertical fin was found at the crash site. Numerous pictures available online show the vertical fin at the end of the debris field. I also marked the location on the map you just quoted ;)
 
edu2703
Posts: 162
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:50 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:24 pm

Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1
Last edited by edu2703 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2571
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:24 pm

mysfit wrote:
I don't believe those missile fragments are at the crash site.

Per numerous news articles previously linked, al Jazeera's and cnn, and the investigation website, the plane had turned back.

Per PixelFlights back of the envelope calculation, the aircraft crashed about 2 min post LOS. The video is 30 seconds long.

Something happened which prompted the plane to turn around. Initial reports were mech failure/overheating in an engine. I am assuming this is from some ACARS information.

There was a fire prior to the crash and the debris field is pretty spread out

My impression is some hot, fast fire. Anyone remember that plane at the gate in ChiNa which rapidly burned from the cargo hold straight up through the top? Right behind the cockpit?

Something burned hot and fast in a critical spot, IMO.


That doesn't exclude the missile theory.

Missile fragments could have ruptured flight controls, destroyed flight control surfaces (making the aircraft turn) or the pilots could have tried to turn around to land.
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm

[quote="airhansa"
I suggested that a cargo fire could be one of the few suggestions that would allow for a fire so large which no one noticed for so long. Also for communications to be lost the fire would have had to have been well into the fuselage hull. The rapidness of the fire may suggest that it was either the cargo or something like furnishings which are too flammable.[/quote]

Aren't there detectors in the cargo hold?
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon and Iraqi intelligence officials confirm to Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


eNgInE fIrE
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:26 pm

Interested wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The source is Iranian president Hassan Rouhani's tweet:

Image

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 85824?s=20

But the 290 were their people, right? And on this flight 147 were too. Shooting down an aircraft full of own people, departing from and flying over the own capitol impossibly can be a hostile act against anybody else.

Just to show how absurd that is: Think if the UK during the Falkland war would have shot down an airliner departing from and flying over London from a third country with no Argentiniens on board but a bunch of Brits and other people. That is so absurd, that we can rule out a willing act in this case.


Someone suggested they shot the wrong plane down by mistake There's a more American one that would have been similar time but the delays messed things up etc.

It's not inconceivable I guess.

Which flight from Tehran would have more Americans onboard than own people?

That is not credible. Shooting "own" civil airliners 1000m above ground over the own capitol could only be a mistake.
Last edited by rheinwaldner on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:28 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


Is this source reliable?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:29 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


A missile would explain most of the missing jigsaw pieces.
 
mysfit
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:29 pm

This China flight, not the same one referenced above. This one was apparently tied to lithium batteries.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... -bln-yuan/
 
mysfit
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:16 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:29 pm

airhansa wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


A missile would explain most of the missing jigsaw pieces.

Except the plane turning...
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:30 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Interested wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
But the 290 were their people, right? And on this flight 147 were too. Shooting down an aircraft full of own people, departing from and flying over the own capitol impossibly can be a hostile act against anybody else.

Just to show how absurd that is: Think if the UK during the Falkland war would have shot down an airliner departing from and flying over London from a third country with no Argentiniens on board but a bunch of Brits and other people. That is so absurd, that we can rule out a willing act in this case.


Someone suggested they shot the wrong plane down by mistake There's a more American one that would have been similar time but the delays messed things up etc.

It's not inconceivable I guess.

Which flight from Tehran would have more Americans onboard than own people?

That is not credible. Shooting "own" civil airliners 1000m above ground over the own capitol could only be a mistake.


Somewhere deep earlier in the thread a poster suggested a different plane might have been the target if it wasn't accidental. I wouldn't know where to start to find which one they suggested though.
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:30 pm

Interested wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


Is this source reliable?


newsweek is very reliable.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2571
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:31 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek that the Ukrainian airliner that crashed in Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... 1313?amp=1


"The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek."

From the quoted Newsweek article:

"Images began to circulate Wednesday of what appeared to be fragments of a Tor M-1 missile said to have been found in a suburb southwest of Tehran. Ukraine Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danylov said Thursday in a statement that contact with a Tor M-1 system was among the potential causes for the plane's destruction that his country was looking into."


That's interesting. I've been sceptical of "intelligence officials" saying other things, so it would be hypocritical of me to not be sceptical in this case as well.

But it does align with the missile theory that I believe is most likely.

Sometimes I wonder if these "intelligence officials" read airliners.net and other forums speculating in the cause of this incident.

Linking the article once more to make sure its within forum rules.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot- ... es-1481313
Last edited by JetBuddy on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1389
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:31 pm

Did the pilots intentionally turn back in response to some on board issue? Or did the on board issue cause the flight controls to fail such that it cause the plane to turn in that direction?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:31 pm

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
[quote="airhansa"
I suggested that a cargo fire could be one of the few suggestions that would allow for a fire so large which no one noticed for so long. Also for communications to be lost the fire would have had to have been well into the fuselage hull. The rapidness of the fire may suggest that it was either the cargo or something like furnishings which are too flammable.


Aren't there detectors in the cargo hold?[/quote]

I guess it's now been confirmed as a missile hit, though it could have also been that the cargo itself was flammable. A plane can't be brought down quickly by a small fire, including something like an engine fire, but an accelerator in the cargo hold could have done that.
 
LEJCargo
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:44 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:32 pm

Feith was just on the CNBC Squawk Box, and he leans towards an external catastrophic event (mainly due to the video and the pictures of holes in the fuselage).

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos