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LEJCargo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:10 pm

afgeneral wrote:
It's still odd that Iran has been so open about the situation, allowing pictures and inviting Ukrainian investigators.

Could it be that the communication between Iranian authorities is so bad that they did not know they shot it down in the first few hours after the crash? Maybe the military was super secretive and did not admit they did it until later?


Well it doesn't really matter what investigators find out, if they choose to deny it. For example Egypt has flat out denied investigation findings twice already and nothing happened.
 
bob75013
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:10 pm

michi wrote:
airhansa wrote:
The vertical fin being quite far back from the crash site suggests either that the missile hit it, or that the pilots were too aggressive (or there was some mechanical issue) trying to bring stability to the plane, or a bit of both.


The vertical fin is at the end of the debris field of the crash site. This suggests that the vertical fin was attached until impact.


It is NOT a vertical FIN. It is a vertical STABILIZER.

Sheees...
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:14 pm

bob75013 wrote:
michi wrote:
airhansa wrote:
The vertical fin being quite far back from the crash site suggests either that the missile hit it, or that the pilots were too aggressive (or there was some mechanical issue) trying to bring stability to the plane, or a bit of both.


The vertical fin is at the end of the debris field of the crash site. This suggests that the vertical fin was attached until impact.


It is NOT a vertical FIN. It is a vertical STABILIZER.

Sheees...


I looked at the map again and it came to me that I was presuming the flight came from a certain direction when in fact it was the opposite direction.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:15 pm

N212R wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
We have some more information and verification of the Tor-M1 SAM system missile debris found.

It appears to be genuine.


It also appears to have landed perhaps too perfectly within the confines of that narrow culvert...


Why is that relevant? The likelyhood of it landing right next to it, or anywhere else in the vicinity itself is equal.

The missile tip being found in that culvert or anywhere else doesn't detract or increase the chance of it being real or genuine.

And it's now been established the aircraft was in fact shot down. By a Tor-M1 system. Which is the exact same system this missile tip came from.
 
fly707
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:15 pm

It's so early to expect, let's wait the investigations.
Without mistakes we will never learn
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:17 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Now BBC is also running with "Iran shot it down". Not much information, just that apparently, U.S. satellites detected infrared signals that presumably were missile launches.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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journeyperson
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:18 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

BBC have it now and they are super cautious about reporting.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:22 pm

MaksFly wrote:
Unless they are sourcing Newsweek. Pitch up the chain... this is how stories get planted... plenty of books on this. Give it to a blog, that gets picked up by a smaller magazine/site, that gets pitched up the chain.

I don't think this is the case here because the CBS info had more/different details than Newsweek. When picking up (propagating) news, you would only provide the same amount of info or less.

The Newsweek article said it was shot down by 1 Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile.

The CBS News article said there were 2 missiles, and they detected radar being turned on. Also, they said "CBS News was told", which means they got the info themselves. Reputable news have to credit if they are just propagating (e.g. "as reported by Newsweek")

"U.S. intelligence picked up signals of a radar being turned on, sources told CBS News. U.S. satellites also detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded, CBS News was told."
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:24 pm

enilria wrote:
majano wrote:
enilria wrote:
I appreciate that very much. I am someone who works a lot with statistics. You see that on this site. I know well that extreme coincidences are nearly statistically impossible. It's not unlike if AS adds a route from a Delta hub and a week later DL adds a route or two or three from SEA. People say "they had planned to do that, just a coincidence". It's not a coincidence.

It is fact that ADS-B is easily hacked. It just comes down to whether you choose to believe it is being done. The U.S. did hack an Iranian atomic plant already, so I don't think anything is off the table.

This is all fine. I was merely concerned by you stating that scenarios other than the plane being shot down are conspiracy theories.

Got it.

I'm just saying given the surrounding events, the likelihood is massively greater that the plane was shotdown rather than a mechanical event. That's just based on statistics. The rarity of mechanical failure compared with the certainty that missiles were flying around and the U.S. had given an overflight warning tells me that a mechanical event is the less likely outcome. Generally, while it is not the strict definition, people refer to the less likely story as a "conspiracy theory". In this case I think mechanical failure is the less likely theory being promulgated by the Iranians trying to cover that they shot down an airliner. Of course, I also post that I think it is likely that they were hacked/hoodwinked into believing it was an enemy.

It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.
 
DDR
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:24 pm

It will be interesting to see what Iran says or does next, it the shoot down is correct.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:26 pm

Now that we have learned from CBS that there were 2 missiles fired, I wonder if the flash we saw at 0:05 in the first video was the second missile hitting. A second later, that's when a bunch of flaming debris that falls off.

https://twitter.com/MohamadAhwaze/statu ... 81504?s=19
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:27 pm

enilria wrote:
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.


A technical fault causes ADS-B to stop broadcasting, and then the Iranian missile is fired at a presumably enemy jet?

enilria wrote:
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


A destruction in flight never leads to such a small debris field. Compare to the huge debris field in the Lockerbie case (the explosion happened at cruise altitude, AFAIK).
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:28 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
majano wrote:
This is all fine. I was merely concerned by you stating that scenarios other than the plane being shot down are conspiracy theories.

Got it.

I'm just saying given the surrounding events, the likelihood is massively greater that the plane was shotdown rather than a mechanical event. That's just based on statistics. The rarity of mechanical failure compared with the certainty that missiles were flying around and the U.S. had given an overflight warning tells me that a mechanical event is the less likely outcome. Generally, while it is not the strict definition, people refer to the less likely story as a "conspiracy theory". In this case I think mechanical failure is the less likely theory being promulgated by the Iranians trying to cover that they shot down an airliner. Of course, I also post that I think it is likely that they were hacked/hoodwinked into believing it was an enemy.

It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


As I've said earlier Iran have stated they successfully cyber hacked US defence systems the previous night. Actually bragging about it. Surely it would be happening both ways with US capable of messing with Iranian defence systems far more cleverly etc. I doubt very much everything has been normal with whatever Iranian defence systems there are in recent days. What Iran can do to US - US could do back to them and worse to send a message to them.

None of which would be aimed at bringing a passenger jet down. But could have totally messed up whatever systems Iran do have in place in terms of missile defence etc. They may have been firing in chaos when they pulled that trigger
Last edited by Interested on Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:29 pm

journeyperson wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
BBC have it now and they are super cautious about reporting.


Just pointing out that BBC is re-reporting CBS, so it's not an additional source. Although it means BBC trusts CBS to be very reliable.

"US officials say they believe the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was hit by a missile, CBS says.

CBS News quoting US intelligence said a satellite detected infrared "blips" of two missile launches, followed by another blip of an explosion."
 
captainmeeerkat
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:30 pm

How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before
my luggage is better travelled than me!
 
ktof
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:31 pm

DDR wrote:
It will be interesting to see what Iran says or does next, it the shoot down is correct.


Especially considering the majority of the dead are Iranian nationals.
 
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journeyperson
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:32 pm

If that missile tip was at the crash site it suggests considerable disarray, that someone could photograph and publish photos. It would appear the left hand didn't know what the right hand had done.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:32 pm

Interested wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
Got it.

I'm just saying given the surrounding events, the likelihood is massively greater that the plane was shotdown rather than a mechanical event. That's just based on statistics. The rarity of mechanical failure compared with the certainty that missiles were flying around and the U.S. had given an overflight warning tells me that a mechanical event is the less likely outcome. Generally, while it is not the strict definition, people refer to the less likely story as a "conspiracy theory". In this case I think mechanical failure is the less likely theory being promulgated by the Iranians trying to cover that they shot down an airliner. Of course, I also post that I think it is likely that they were hacked/hoodwinked into believing it was an enemy.

It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


As I've said earlier Iran have stated they successfully cyber hacked US defence systems the previous night. Actually bragging about it. Surely it would be happening both ways with US capable of messing with Iranian defence systems far more cleverly etc. I doubt very much everything has been normal with whatever Iranian defence systems there are in recent days. What Iran can do to US - US could do back to them and worse to send a message to them.

None of which would be aimed at bringing a passenger jet down. But could have totally messed up whatever systems Iran do have in place in terms of missile defence etc. They may have been firing in chaos when they pulled that trigger


Unless it was Russians for example. Ukraine is not exactly on good terms with them.
 
Hannigan
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:36 pm

The whole "turned back to the airport" notion could also just be the plane spinning down after the rocket hit. It doesn't look like it just fell out of the sky based on that video. There was some sort (albeit small) glide in there. Just more speculation to throw on the pile.
We got planes! We got gates! What the hell!
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:36 pm

musman9853 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
We have some more information and verification of the Tor-M1 SAM system missile debris found.

It appears to be genuine.

Earlier, we only had one picture of the missile. Now we have more angles of the same missile debris, as well as images of the larger context around where it was found. And it appears to be from the crash site. Please don't ignore this.

Original image of part of SA-15 / TOR-M1 missile:

Image

New image of the same missile from another angle:

Image

Context / surroundings of the ditch/wall where the missile was found - at the crash site:

Image

Also, Rouhani threatened another "Lockerbie" just 2 days ago:

Image

Hassan Rouhani Twitter post:

https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/statu ... 85824?s=20

The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10686727/ ... e-coffins/

Info / pictures from Peshmerganor Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/Peshmerganor/

Those are some damning photos. They don't prove anything until they can be confirmed but imo the missile is still the most likely cause



Provided by ruptly??? That's Russian gov't funded. I'd think they'd avoid stirring the pot in Iran. I guess not?
情報
 
AKL321NX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:37 pm

captainmeeerkat wrote:
How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before

No intelligence agency really wants to tip what they know until the bosses are fine with it
 
TC957
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:37 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
enilria wrote:
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.


A technical fault causes ADS-B to stop broadcasting, and then the Iranian missile is fired at a presumably enemy jet?

enilria wrote:
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


A destruction in flight never leads to such a small debris field. Compare to the huge debris field in the Lockerbie case (the explosion happened at cruise altitude, AFAIK).

But that was a 747 from 31000ft, not a 738 from 8000ft.
If this was an accident, it probably goes to show the unrealiability of Iran's warfare infrastructure.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:39 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
majano wrote:
This is all fine. I was merely concerned by you stating that scenarios other than the plane being shot down are conspiracy theories.

Got it.

I'm just saying given the surrounding events, the likelihood is massively greater that the plane was shotdown rather than a mechanical event. That's just based on statistics. The rarity of mechanical failure compared with the certainty that missiles were flying around and the U.S. had given an overflight warning tells me that a mechanical event is the less likely outcome. Generally, while it is not the strict definition, people refer to the less likely story as a "conspiracy theory". In this case I think mechanical failure is the less likely theory being promulgated by the Iranians trying to cover that they shot down an airliner. Of course, I also post that I think it is likely that they were hacked/hoodwinked into believing it was an enemy.

It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


Speaking of conspiracy theories, that IS a conspiracy theory.

If I understand your reasoning correctly, you believe it's more likely the U.S. intentionally hide / spoofed the transponder identity of the 737, intentionally killing nearly 200 civilians - than Iranian SAM system crews making a terrible mistake?

I don't think that is credible.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:42 pm

journeyperson wrote:
If that missile tip was at the crash site it suggests considerable disarray, that someone could photograph and publish photos. It would appear the left hand didn't know what the right hand had done.


All the images from the crash site show a multitude of people all over the wreckage area. People taking pictures, videos and picking things up.

It wasn't professional at all.

So I'm not surprised images got leaked without the Iranian government approval. It happens all the time.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:45 pm

famfflores wrote:
Maybe both theories are correct.

A plane having to go around and back due to some issue, flying low over areas where people are not used to planes flying low and are under huge stress over a potential attack. Terrible combination

Yes this is an interesting possible scenario.
1) Due to the Iran strike on Iraq, there setup defense missile with an authorized corridor in the exclusion zone to let the civil aircraft use the airport.
2) The PS752 have an issue that cut the communication and started a turn to go back at the airport, unknowing that it leave the authorized corridor and enter the exclusion zone of a defense missile.
3) Confusion about why an aircraft enter the exclusion zone end up in a missile launch and aircraft hit, fire ball, and ground impact.
But if it was the case, the Iran military did know this since the crash and so the Iran government did know either by now.
Time will tell...
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:46 pm

AKL321NX wrote:
captainmeeerkat wrote:
How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before

No intelligence agency really wants to tip what they know until the bosses are fine with it


That and the "sources" could be people who may have no actual insight into anything.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:47 pm

enilria wrote:
Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


You seem to be suggesting that the plane was deliberately targeted. I don't believe for one second that Iran, of all countries, would deliberately launch missiles at a civilian airliner (especially not one carrying Iranian citizens). If the missile shootdown is confirmed, it is a tragic accident that almost certainly involves human errors.

As with most aviation incidents, there will be a chain of events that led to this disaster. If any one of those doesn't happen, all those folks are still alive.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:51 pm

The NY Times is reporting that Ukraine is Investigating the possibility of a Missile strike. But says the reports of fragments of a Russian-made Tor surface-to-air missile at the crash site are still unconfirmed. So not as confident as CBS, BBC, and Newsweek seem to be about the missile strike. The article also has some interesting info on how the accident investigation will be handled based on the sticky political situation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/worl ... e=Homepage
A:320/21, 333, 343, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772 || MD80, MD90 || E:145, 170, 175, 190, 195 || CR200, 700, 900
 
southsidesilver
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:51 pm

My Arm Chair Theory. I'm not a pilot and know little about aircraft, so total back seat driver input.

1.Plane is delayed at the airport due to transponder issue.
2.Transponder is fixed. (unable to replace unit due to sanctions) So had to fix it.
3.Plane takes off 1 hour late.
4.Iran Missile defense system is active due to recent use, is on high alert for retaliation (be it automated or manual)
5.At some point during the climb out transponder stops working or ADS-B
6.Missile system suddenly thinks its an attack and does not know what it is.
7.Missile launched automatically or manually in error due to not knowing what the aircraft is.
8.Plane hit by error.

Just my thoughts, probably very wrong.
Last edited by southsidesilver on Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
cat3appr50
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:54 pm

First off, may God comfort the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives in this tragic incident.

The flight data (from updated FlightRadar24 and FlightAware) for the UIA PS-752 flight performance parameters (altitude, location, GS, v/s fpm) compared to the most previous day (Jan. 6, 2020) PS-752 flight departing OIIE are similar (including the departure route) up to 8,000’ altitude (at the point this flight instantly lost ADS-B data and ATC communication). Nothing was unusual in the data (and no indication of an engine performance issue) up to that point. And there was a turn to the right after the incident, whether (pilot) purposeful or aerodynamically as a result of the aircraft damage.

Given no unusual aircraft performance up to the 8,000’ altitude, and the instant total loss of ADS-B data and no ATC communication at that point and after, IMO this may have been an accidental SAM missile launch in the hype of potential war, and especially not too long after the launch of missiles from Iran to Iraq, when potentially counter measures/attacks to that missile attack would be expected, and would have created a very tense and hyped sense of defensive stress in Iran. Again, if it was truly a SAM missile launch that brought down that aircraft, it would most likely have been an accidental launch.

Boeing (the designer/manufacturer of the B737 800 incident aircraft) is, via news reports, not being allowed by Iran to be part of the incident/accident investigation or view DFDR data or listen to CVR communications. IMO that is inappropriate and defies the ICAO, etc. agreed upon incident/accident investigation norms. Boeing must be allowed to be an integral member of this very serious incident investigation, and the Pres. of the USA must assert that international right.
 
RadicalX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:54 pm

Well according to CNN, Boeing shares are rising.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:55 pm

Senior pentagon official confirming that the plane was accidently shot down by Iran


https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/iran-beli ... -accident/
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:57 pm

RadicalX wrote:
Well according to CNN, Boeing shares are rising.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


Just a recovery of the small drop it had at the time of the crash
 
Dominion301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:58 pm

Interested wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
I'm very curious why there was a delay. The reason for this, including who was on/near the plane during the delay, seems important to me.


I reckon 20 per cent of planes I've travelled on have been delayed 30 mins or more

What's the big deal about a 60 minute delay?


The difference is only relevant IF there was a bomb onboard. Instead of detonating at cruising altitude say over Iraq with an on-time departure, it explodes 2 minutes after departure. I'm only saying this theoretically.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:59 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
So....lets put the 737 was hit by a US SAM / US drone / US ICBM / US bald eagle theory to bed....

We've seen thousands of parts: body parts, fuselage parts, wing parts, tail parts, photos, shoes, cell phones, etc.

We've not seen and US built SAM parts / drone parts / ICBM parts/ bald eagle feathers.

Can we dispel this nonsense?


Absolutely! Some people just want this to be "shot down by missile" We who can accept what really happened don't see any evidence why USA should be blamed. Also there is no real evidence anyone shot down that plane. Most likely it was fire in the hold, engine explosion that no-one thought can happen. Even Swissair 111 or Valujet 592. What ever caused that accident, I can live with it as long as the truth is told and in the end I believe this was another plane accident. We will see.
 
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sergegva
Posts: 256
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:59 pm

Ok... Less than 24h ago, Western intelligence agencies said: this is probably not a missile.
They added an oddly peremptory comment (similar to the "technical problem" used by Iran just after the tragedy btw): "the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated".

Source: Reuters (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/western-in ... e/45481100)

And now, a Pentagon official and a U.S. senior intelligence official said "we know it was a missile" ?! This raises a number of important questions!

First, how did they know, yesterday, that one of the plane's engines had overheated?
Second, how could they change their minds so quickly?

Looks like the watchword was at first to cover up the Iranian blunder, but the information eventually leaked out. Why? Could this be an indication of an American involvement (hacking into Iranian air defence systems, or aircraft identification systems in the area?) Or just an attempt to calm things down to avoid a violent reaction from an Iran having lost face?
Last edited by sergegva on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PixelFlight
Posts: 1026
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:02 pm

flybucky wrote:
Now that we have learned from CBS that there were 2 missiles fired, I wonder if the flash we saw at 0:05 in the first video was the second missile hitting. A second later, that's when a bunch of flaming debris that falls off.

https://twitter.com/MohamadAhwaze/statu ... 81504?s=19

I think that the apparent flash at 0:05 is a focus adjustment of the camera, as all others details do the same, not just the aircraft.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
btfarrwm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri May 06, 2011 5:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:03 pm

Just curious, when people are making assumptions about the plane's flight path and behavior after becoming crippled, are we talking about the true altitude above the ground? The plane was at 8,000 ft above sea-level, but the altitude in Tehran is listed as 3,900 ft.
Last edited by btfarrwm on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Blankbarcode
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:03 pm

Was this already shared? CCTV allegedly from the moment the aircraft hit the ground. The light before the blast definitely shows the intensity of the fire before impact

https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/video-sho ... s-in-iran/
 
ranold76
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:04 pm

I've seen photos of what looks like a vertical stabilizer with logo LAYING FLAT on the ground and also seeing photos of a burnt fuselage wedged between buildings with the vertical stabilizer still attached...or are both pieces?
Which is it?

NEVERMIND... CNN is using a WRONG image. Oof.
Last edited by ranold76 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1409
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm

THS214 wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
So....lets put the 737 was hit by a US SAM / US drone / US ICBM / US bald eagle theory to bed....

We've seen thousands of parts: body parts, fuselage parts, wing parts, tail parts, photos, shoes, cell phones, etc.

We've not seen and US built SAM parts / drone parts / ICBM parts/ bald eagle feathers.

Can we dispel this nonsense?


Absolutely! Some people just want this to be "shot down by missile" We who can accept what really happened don't see any evidence why USA should be blamed. Also there is no real evidence anyone shot down that plane. Most likely it was fire in the hold, engine explosion that no-one thought can happen. Even Swissair 111 or Valujet 592. What ever caused that accident, I can live with it as long as the truth is told and in the end I believe this was another plane accident. We will see.


No real evidence in the public spectrum. You can be sure there's plenty of evidence (either supporting or debunking a missile) in the private view
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:07 pm

cat3appr50 wrote:
First off, may God comfort the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives in this tragic incident.

The flight data (from updated FlightRadar24 and FlightAware) for the UIA PS-752 flight performance parameters (altitude, location, GS, v/s fpm) compared to the most previous day (Jan. 6, 2020) PS-752 flight departing OIIE are similar (including the departure route) up to 8,000’ altitude (at the point this flight instantly lost ADS-B data and ATC communication). Nothing was unusual in the data (and no indication of an engine performance issue) up to that point. And there was a turn to the right after the incident, whether (pilot) purposeful or aerodynamically as a result of the aircraft damage.

Given no unusual aircraft performance up to the 8,000’ altitude, and the instant total loss of ADS-B data and no ATC communication at that point and after, IMO this may have been an accidental SAM missile launch in the hype of potential war, and especially not too long after the launch of missiles from Iran to Iraq, when potentially counter measures/attacks to that missile attack would be expected, and would have created a very tense and hyped sense of defensive stress in Iran. Again, if it was truly a SAM missile launch that brought down that aircraft, it would most likely have been an accidental launch.

Boeing (the designer/manufacturer of the B737 800 incident aircraft) is, via news reports, not being allowed by Iran to be part of the incident/accident investigation or view DFDR data or listen to CVR communications. IMO that is inappropriate and defies the ICAO, etc. agreed upon incident/accident investigation norms. Boeing must be allowed to be an integral member of this very serious incident investigation, and the Pres. of the USA must assert that international right.


Based on recent reports it seems like Iran has invited all the parties including the manufactorer to get involved in the investigation. It seems like they have walked back on what they said before.

https://www.radiofarda.com/amp/abedzade ... 68045.html
 
awthompson
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:07 pm

I don't have time to read every page to see if someone has corrected you here, but I feel it necessary to point out that the Air France Concorde was NOT brought down by an engine explosion.
The flames in the infamous Concorde video were NOT coming from an engine but were burning fuel which was spilling from a hole in the lower surface of a wing fuel tank. The said hole was caused by a large chunk of rubber tyre which had disintegrated after hitting a sharp piece of metal on the runway.
As the result of a number of different factors including the crew mistakenly shutting down good engine(s), inability to retract gear (high drag) due to hydraulic damage, etc etc, the aircraft stalled, dropped a wing and went down almost inverted. All four engines were fine.
 
btfarrwm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri May 06, 2011 5:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:08 pm

If this is the response of the head of Iran's Civil Aviation board regarding the missile theory, confidence in their ability to perform a competent investigation just took a big hit...

The head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority is questioning the US allegation that Iran mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner that crashed shortly after takeoff in Tehran.

“If a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall," Ali Abedzadeh told CNN.
He said once the plane took off, it continued flying for five minutes. Abedzadeh said “the pilot tried to return to the airport but failed.”

Abedzadeh went on to ask, “How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile” and then the pilot “try to turn back to the airport?”


https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/iran-plane-crash-investigation/h_9d5b3826fc1d733d6dc971fe1b5fb800
 
THS214
Posts: 372
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:08 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
yurieu wrote:
Dear people,

Wouldn't it be the most obvious reason the airplane didn't contact the tower the fact the pilots were uncounsciousness, and that caused by cabin decompression or direct hit by a bomb? And why nobody is asking for ATC last calls?


Cabin decompression at this altitude wouldn't cause instant blackout wouldn't it?


No it wouldn't. Actually you don't need oxygen masks at all at that altitude. Its just couple thousand feet above Denver altitude.
 
southsidesilver
Posts: 98
Joined: Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:14 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:09 pm

Blankbarcode wrote:
Was this already shared? CCTV allegedly from the moment the aircraft hit the ground. The light before the blast definitely shows the intensity of the fire before impact

https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/video-sho ... s-in-iran/


WOW. That's pretty shocking to see.
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
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sergegva
Posts: 256
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:09 pm

AKL321NX wrote:
captainmeeerkat wrote:
How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before

No intelligence agency really wants to tip what they know until the bosses are fine with it


It's one thing not to say anything, it's another to throw out false leads the way they did ("engines had overheated")
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 735
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:12 pm

If you look at big enough groups of people, there are always certain individuals that are not gifted with intelligence. Every military force has them and depending on the recruiting practices most militaries have an above average count of them. That is why there are always signs around every military installation as well as locked air spaces in active areas because intellectually challenged individuals are at work. Most possibly one of those killed this people because of one or multiple those individuals was at work. It is sad but happens all the time, everywhere around the world.

Just stay as far away from them as possible. There are a lot of good service men and women but unfortunately too many are not and from the outside we can not see who is who and on the inside many do not care and we end up with another tragedy.
Last edited by FluidFlow on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1409
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:12 pm

btfarrwm wrote:
If this is the response of the head of Iran's Civil Aviation board regarding the missile theory, confidence in their ability to perform a competent investigation just took a big hit...

The head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority is questioning the US allegation that Iran mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner that crashed shortly after takeoff in Tehran.

“If a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall," Ali Abedzadeh told CNN.
He said once the plane took off, it continued flying for five minutes. Abedzadeh said “the pilot tried to return to the airport but failed.”

Abedzadeh went on to ask, “How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile” and then the pilot “try to turn back to the airport?”


https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/iran-plane-crash-investigation/h_9d5b3826fc1d733d6dc971fe1b5fb800


Kind of an odd denial there. How do we know the pilot actively turned the plane back towards the airport vs it just naturally going that way?
Last edited by smokeybandit on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Eikie
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 pm

ranold76 wrote:
I've seen photos of what looks like a vertical stabilizer with logo LAYING FLAT on the ground and also seeing photos of a burnt fuselage wedged between buildings with the vertical stabilizer still attached...or are both pieces?
Which is it?

The picture you are talking about (buildings/stabilizer) is from another crash last year.

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