Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 931
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:32 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:13 pm

How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before


First, these stories are always evolving as new information comes to light, more analysis occurs, and the proverbial blanks get filled in. It isn't surprising that thoughts and views on an event will change over time, even a brief period of time.

The other option is that Western intelligence services knew that the plane was shot down by a missile, but chose to not advertise that knowledge due to fears of compromising their intelligence gathering methods. For example, if they knew via a human asset, a spy, they wouldn't want to advertise their knowledge for fear of compromising said spy. They would wait for more information to percolate around the world and the news media when they could then claim it was a missile without fear of harming their source.

More than likely, it was a blend of both reasons, if not others, as well.
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2992
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:14 pm

The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10714
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.

Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?
Last edited by Polot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
JayBCN
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 pm

airhansa wrote:
litz wrote:
airhansa wrote:
Has this fire been brought up? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_120 It was a fairly large fire caused by a punctured fuel tank in the aftermath of maintenance work - a fuel leak caught on fire after contacting areas heated by the engine. Image


That fireball only happened after the airplane stopped at the gate, and the fuel flow from the holed tank dropped onto the hot exhaust manifold of the engine.

Prior to that point, the fuel flow dispersed harmlessly into the airstream.


This is my view on an engine fire as well - it simply cannot lead to: an uncontrolled loss of a plane, all communications lost between plane and ground, or the plane going up in a fireball. But that Air China incident is the closest I've seen to a total hull loss by fireball on a modern jet plane - an engine fire alone should be well contained if not extinguished swiftly.

What scenario would lead to: an uncontrolled loss of a plane, all communications lost between plane and ground, or the plane going up in a fireball, within a matter of minutes (if not seconds) after takeoff? All scenarios do not tick all three points within the given time period. Possible the fuel could have been leaking quite badly and banking the plane caused the fuel to spill onto the hull and set the hull alight - but again it would be ages for communications to be lost.


It is China Airlines and not Air China, different countries, different systems, different alliances. On this forum we have to get this right.
 
THS214
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 pm

Interested wrote:
I have three questions?

How long did the flight actually last from takeoff to crash?

Once it reached 8,000 feet and contact was lost how long til it crashed?

And is 8,000 feet when people on here think the fire started or was it before then?


1.5-6 minutes
2. 2-3 minutes
3. We don't know. As they turned back, most likely that fire stated earlier.
 
ranold76
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 pm

Eikie wrote:
ranold76 wrote:
I've seen photos of what looks like a vertical stabilizer with logo LAYING FLAT on the ground and also seeing photos of a burnt fuselage wedged between buildings with the vertical stabilizer still attached...or are both pieces?
Which is it?

The picture you are talking about (buildings/stabilizer) is from another crash last year.


Yeah, CNN is running with the other crash photos. Hence the confusion.
 
brodeurprice
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:30 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:19 pm

sergegva wrote:
Ok... Less than 24h ago, Western intelligence agencies said: this is probably not a missile.
They added an oddly peremptory comment (similar to the "technical problem" used by Iran just after the tragedy btw): "the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated".

Source: Reuters (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/western-in ... e/45481100)

And now, a Pentagon official and a U.S. senior intelligence official said "we know it was a missile" ?! This raises a number of important questions!

First, how did they know, yesterday, that one of the plane's engines had overheated?
Second, how could they change their minds so quickly?

Looks like the watchword was at first to cover up the Iranian blunder, but the information eventually leaked out. Why? Could this be an indication of an American involvement (hacking into Iranian air defence systems, or aircraft identification systems in the area?) Or just an attempt to calm things down to avoid a violent reaction from an Iran having lost face?


This also stood out to me. The Reuters report quoted Canadian intelligence, and you can be sure that they were in contact with the Americans before coming to the conclusion the plane wasn’t shot down.

Either Canadian intelligence was misinformed or misled. Something doesn't add up for sure.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:19 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before


First, these stories are always evolving as new information comes to light, more analysis occurs, and the proverbial blanks get filled in. It isn't surprising that thoughts and views on an event will change over time, even a brief period of time.

The other option is that Western intelligence services knew that the plane was shot down by a missile, but chose to not advertise that knowledge due to fears of compromising their intelligence gathering methods. For example, if they knew via a human asset, a spy, they wouldn't want to advertise their knowledge for fear of compromising said spy. They would wait for more information to percolate around the world and the news media when they could then claim it was a missile without fear of harming their source.

More than likely, it was a blend of both reasons, if not others, as well.


I presume that there is some sort of delay in making public military intelligence in order to cover up gaps - what if they needed time to understand the radar images? It would provide information to the world that said country couldn't identify a missile - also it would also provide information about which other countries couldn't find radar images.
 
MEMFLY
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:54 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:20 pm

PM Justin Trudeau to hold news conference at 2 pm ET to speak about Iran plane crash. 2 government sources tell CBC the United States has shared intelligence with Canada indicating the Ukrainian airliner was shot down. -CBC News
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2839
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:22 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Senior pentagon official confirming that the plane was accidently shot down by Iran


https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/iran-beli ... -accident/


Same thing just posted 3 minutes ago here in Canada on CBC: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-m ... -1.5420736
 
klwright69
Posts: 2712
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 4:22 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:22 pm

I just heard Trump comment, in his own words over the radio.

The plane was in a "rough neighborhood" and

somebody "probably had an accident" referring to a shootdown.
 
btfarrwm
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri May 06, 2011 5:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:23 pm

brodeurprice wrote:
sergegva wrote:

This also stood out to me. The Reuters report quoted Canadian intelligence, and you can be sure that they were in contact with the Americans before coming to the conclusion the plane wasn’t shot down.




One explanation for the revelations coming out today about satellite data is simple. It took time to extract the satellite data, analyze it and get the appropriate de-classification for people to be able to discuss it with sources in the press.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19175
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:24 pm

RadicalX wrote:
Well according to CNN, Boeing shares are rising.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


Phew! 170 people didn't die in vain. :sarcastic:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Blankbarcode
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:24 pm

Reminder to fellow members that even if you end up being right about the missile, it's still not ok to jump to conclusions in the future.

"Told you so" messages expected to flood in any time now
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2368
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:24 pm

Additionally, the other major news networks in the US are now running with the same story that CBS did ...

As a reminder, these primary news sources independently verify something like this before running with it.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
Well according to CNN, Boeing shares are rising.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


Phew! 170 people didn't die in vain. :sarcastic:


It's not all over yet. http://www.boeing.com/defense/missile-defense/
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19175
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:26 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.


Except the plane clearly turned from its original NW heading to a SE one. So there is that.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Varsity1
Posts: 2226
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:26 pm

Does anyone have Hassan’s tweet? Sounds like he threatened to shoot down an airliner a couple days ago.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:26 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.


To me the fact that Iran wasn't blaming the US or anybody else from the get go meant they suspected/knew right away that this was internal.
I might be wrong of course but that's my opinion after watching the video where you see those flashes and debris falling off due to obvious explosion of some sort.
 
User avatar
sergegva
Posts: 256
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm

btfarrwm wrote:
brodeurprice wrote:
sergegva wrote:

This also stood out to me. The Reuters report quoted Canadian intelligence, and you can be sure that they were in contact with the Americans before coming to the conclusion the plane wasn’t shot down.




One explanation for the revelations coming out today about satellite data is simple. It took time to extract the satellite data, analyze it and get the appropriate de-classification for people to be able to discuss it with sources in the press.


That still doesn't explain why they said "plane was not brought down by a missile" and "there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated", instead of "we can't speak yet".
Last edited by sergegva on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm

litz wrote:
Additionally, the other major news networks in the US are now running with the same story that CBS did ...

As a reminder, these primary news sources independently verify something like this before running with it.


CBC is reporting that Trudeau is holding a news conference about an Iran shoot down based on US intelligence handed by the US government to Canadian officials.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm

Interested wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Terrorist on board has weapons to take out pilots and bomb(s)/ suicide vest to detonate etc

Would explain fireball and no communication from pilots

Or bomb explodes and takes pilots out at same time as starting fire in plane
No. Bomb that kills pilots is too far away to puncture the tanks. The bomb that punctures the tanks does not kill the pilots. Jet fuel is pretty heavy stuff, it is not gasoline. For it to produce fireball you have to mix it with air, that means that the explosion needs enough force to vaporize the fuel. We are talking about a bomb of size one could bring on board of the plane. Yes, a 10kg device in cargo hold could probably vaporize both the fuel and the pilots, but this is not your typical airliner bomb.

Fact is, even fatal bombing of the plane is very unlikely to produce a fireball, because terrorists want the bomb to be small to be easily hidden/smuggled, and one does not need a fireball to totally destroy a plane. Small bomb that causes just enough structural damage to sever control lines or make large enough hole in the fuselage.

You are stubbornly referring to explosions as seen in movies. Real life explosions are NOT like that.To produce movie effects, large amounts of fuel (e.g. gasoline in plastic bags) are placed next to small charges, which are enough to destroy the bags and spray the fuel around. This then gives a "movie fireball".

But in reality, bomb detonations basically never produce fireball, because detonation is completely different process from burning. All energy that would go into fireball heat and light would be wasted energy, as it would not contribute to the destructive force of the detonation.

So, the only way that explosive device in the cabin/cargo hold would produce fireball is if it is either well placed to target fuel tanks, or it is large enough that its shockwave or shrapnels penetrate fuel tank, with enough energy to disperse enough fuel for a fireball. "large enough" and "filled with shrapnel" is something even the worst airport security in the world would detect if you try to take it on the plane.

Missile, on the other hand, has all the ingredients: sufficient charge (much more than what anyone could hope to smuggle on board) and shrapnel.


Two typical airliner bombs on the plane?

Or based on your reply one bomb that is not your typical airliner bomb


Yeah, somehow it decreases probability that it was bomb, after you need more and more convoluted explanations to fit the evidence. Single SAM fits facts that we do know (and we know very little) far better than multiple bombs on the plane. Point is, even a successful bombing of an airplane hardly produces a fireball, even if everyone is killed on impact with the ground.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10714
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm

brodeurprice wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Ok... Less than 24h ago, Western intelligence agencies said: this is probably not a missile.
They added an oddly peremptory comment (similar to the "technical problem" used by Iran just after the tragedy btw): "the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated".

Source: Reuters (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/western-in ... e/45481100)

And now, a Pentagon official and a U.S. senior intelligence official said "we know it was a missile" ?! This raises a number of important questions!

First, how did they know, yesterday, that one of the plane's engines had overheated?
Second, how could they change their minds so quickly?

Looks like the watchword was at first to cover up the Iranian blunder, but the information eventually leaked out. Why? Could this be an indication of an American involvement (hacking into Iranian air defence systems, or aircraft identification systems in the area?) Or just an attempt to calm things down to avoid a violent reaction from an Iran having lost face?


This also stood out to me. The Reuters report quoted Canadian intelligence, and you can be sure that they were in contact with the Americans before coming to the conclusion the plane wasn’t shot down.

Either Canadian intelligence was misinformed or misled. Something doesn't add up for sure.


“Intelligence” is not some monolithic thing. Canadian intelligence said nothing. A Canadian intelligence source said something. It is entirely possible Reuter’s source has no connection to American intelligence at all (and is not expected to as part of the source’s duties). It is entirely possible the source as no actual skin in the game at all, and is only repeating things he/she heard through grapevine at work.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:27 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
So let's suppose for a minute it's a missile. How do you confirm that based on wreckage?


Well, the easiest way is confirmation of those photos of the detonated SAM remains that keep popping up in here.

Most of us had already come to this conclusion by how heavily the plane was already in flames when it came down. We haven't seen mechanical failures caught on video that cause that so rapidly after It's already made it into the air safely.

Metal is distorted by heat. There will probably be evidence of metal exposed to the a small initial blast (it's a small blast, but it's not JUST shrapnel guys) as well as the impact blast. If you think of heat treatment processes the metal will likely show evidence of all separate heat exposures at different temperatures. Also residues of high explosives may be present (would not be present in crash debris where only a normal malfunction without external factors happened) and of course shrapnel patterns.
情報
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2992
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:28 pm

Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.

Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?


The aircraft literally broke up in the air from something and fell out of the sky. Last known data was at 8000ft with speed and climbing normally. Right after that data point I don't think the Pilots were in control any longer. Is there anything that points to the aircraft attempting a return the airport? Or are you just basing this on the fact that the crash site isn't exactly where the last radar point is located?
 
noobjustafan
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:29 pm

Iranian 'Press TV' in full on denial... their civil aviation chief has said it is 'impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane'.
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2368
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:29 pm

Per CNN, European Intelligence officials are now backing the original CBS report:

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-new ... ba6153ffcd
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:30 pm

Blankbarcode wrote:
Reminder to fellow members that even if you end up being right about the missile, it's still not ok to jump to conclusions in the future.

"Told you so" messages expected to flood in any time now


It’s not jumping to conclusions when the evidence is staring you right in the face.
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:31 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Does anyone have Hassan’s tweet? Sounds like he threatened to shoot down an airliner a couple days ago.


It's been posted here before. But the context of that tweet is different. It is a respinse to Trump's claim that US is ready to target 52 sites. It wouldn't make sense to target a plane full of Iranians, operated by a country that has nothing to do with the conflict.
 
AKL321NX
Posts: 25
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:35 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:31 pm

btfarrwm wrote:
One explanation for the revelations coming out today about satellite data is simple. It took time to extract the satellite data, analyze it and get the appropriate de-classification for people to be able to discuss it with sources in the press.

And to think we could have saved all that time ensuring accuracy by listening to Jimbo Dingleberry, bored inventory manager sitting at his office computer back on page one :roll:
 
TMccrury
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:24 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:31 pm

This was just posted on Fox News as breaking news. https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian ... ls-believe
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:32 pm

Karlsands wrote:
Gasoline and jet fuel only weigh .8 pounds different


Heavy like "heavy oil" vs "light oil". Heavy = difficult to ignite. Maybe I did not use exactly the most appropriate words, but jet fuel is closer to diesel than to gasoline regarding the flammability.
 
eric19
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:59 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:32 pm

Anyone gonna source the plane not even attempting to turn back?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:33 pm

RadicalX wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Does anyone have Hassan’s tweet? Sounds like he threatened to shoot down an airliner a couple days ago.


It's been posted here before. But the context of that tweet is different. It is a respinse to Trump's claim that US is ready to target 52 sites. It wouldn't make sense to target a plane full of Iranians, operated by a country that has nothing to do with the conflict.


Technically most of them hold passports other than Iran's. They are not viewed by Iranians as dual citizens per se as Iran doesn't have dual citizenship.
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.


Except the plane clearly turned from its original NW heading to a SE one. So there is that.


Yeah when the plane exploded from the missile the ADSB headed SW.
 
Blankbarcode
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:33 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Blankbarcode wrote:
Reminder to fellow members that even if you end up being right about the missile, it's still not ok to jump to conclusions in the future.

"Told you so" messages expected to flood in any time now


It’s not jumping to conclusions when the evidence is staring you right in the face.



It still is if there is no credible source. With all due respect, you as a member of the public, presumably thousands of miles away, know nothing. I know the current age allows for instantaneous results and data, but events like this don't follow that logic. ESPECIALLY in the fog of war.
 
THS214
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:33 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Interested wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
But the 290 were their people, right? And on this flight 147 were too. Shooting down an aircraft full of own people, departing from and flying over the own capitol impossibly can be a hostile act against anybody else.

Just to show how absurd that is: Think if the UK during the Falkland war would have shot down an airliner departing from and flying over London from a third country with no Argentiniens on board but a bunch of Brits and other people. That is so absurd, that we can rule out a willing act in this case.


Someone suggested they shot the wrong plane down by mistake There's a more American one that would have been similar time but the delays messed things up etc.

It's not inconceivable I guess.


I think it was an accident / mistake as well. It has happened numerous times before.

The Rouhani tweet is suspicious and very oddly timed - because it brings up the fact that the U.S. Navy shot down an Iran Air A300 in 1988. The Iranians have claimed that this was on purpose. So the tweet is a thinly veiled threat.

However, that connection is speculation. And I agree it doesn't make much sense to shoot down a plane with so many Iranian citizens. Unless some faction believed that the Canadians onboard were actually Americans, and read the tweet as a signal to go ahead.

But I lean more towards the accidental theory as well.


I already proved your assumption of that tweet is wrong, You ignored it so you are trolling.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2570
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:33 pm

sergegva wrote:
Ok... Less than 24h ago, Western intelligence agencies said: this is probably not a missile.
They added an oddly peremptory comment (similar to the "technical problem" used by Iran just after the tragedy btw): "the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated".

Source: Reuters (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/western-in ... e/45481100)

And now, a Pentagon official and a U.S. senior intelligence official said "we know it was a missile" ?! This raises a number of important questions!

First, how did they know, yesterday, that one of the plane's engines had overheated?
Second, how could they change their minds so quickly?

Looks like the watchword was at first to cover up the Iranian blunder, but the information eventually leaked out. Why? Could this be an indication of an American involvement (hacking into Iranian air defence systems, or aircraft identification systems in the area?) Or just an attempt to calm things down to avoid a violent reaction from an Iran having lost face?


1. The "Western intelligence agencies" in that article was one guy from Canada.
2. The "some evidence engines had overheated" sounds like he watched flames coming from the aircraft as it fell to the ground in a Twitter video. I don't think this guy knows anything about airplanes.
3. Now - the next day - new evidence has surfaced. In the form of a radar signal detected (from the Tor-M1), then two infrared blips on the satellite data indicating 2 missiles were launched, and then another blip when the aircraft was hit.
4. They didn't change their minds.You're hearing from different people. Some within the loop, and others who wish they were.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:34 pm

airhansa wrote:
What scenario would lead to: an uncontrolled loss of a plane, all communications lost between plane and ground, or the plane going up in a fireball, within a matter of minutes (if not seconds) after takeoff? All scenarios do not tick all three points within the given time period. Possible the fuel could have been leaking quite badly and banking the plane caused the fuel to spill onto the hull and set the hull alight - but again it would be ages for communications to be lost.


Explosive device outside airplane, carrying large amount of high explosive and fair amount of shrapnel that would instantly made swiss cheese from large portion of a plane. AKA SAM missile.
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2992
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:34 pm

scbriml wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.


Except the plane clearly turned from its original NW heading to a SE one. So there is that.


Can I see this information? I have not come across this at all.
 
chumley
Posts: 78
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:39 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:34 pm

litz wrote:
As a reminder, these primary news sources independently verify something like this before running with it.

In theory that's true. But as a reminder, these primary news sources may also independently verify something like this by all talking to the same person(s) at different times. It's not like CBS is has a Pentagon source that is confirming it and NBC has a different source in Beijing or Moscow.
 
hivue
Posts: 2078
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:35 pm

Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.

Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?


4) Airplane deviated from the SID back in the direction of the airport for whatever reason into an area where it wasn't expected to be and was shot down.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:36 pm

ranold76 wrote:
Eikie wrote:
ranold76 wrote:
I've seen photos of what looks like a vertical stabilizer with logo LAYING FLAT on the ground and also seeing photos of a burnt fuselage wedged between buildings with the vertical stabilizer still attached...or are both pieces?
Which is it?

The picture you are talking about (buildings/stabilizer) is from another crash last year.


Yeah, CNN is running with the other crash photos. Hence the confusion.


CNN...[facepalm]
 
edu2703
Posts: 162
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:50 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:36 pm

Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705
Last edited by edu2703 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
THS214
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:37 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
CO787EWR wrote:
"[email protected]: US officials are confident Ukrainian Flt 752 was shot down by Iran. US intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on & satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion."

https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 2086675459


US officials believe an Iranian SA-15 downed the 737-800


Let me unpack that tweet:

1. U.S. Officials are confident Flight 752 was shot down by Iran
2. U.S. Intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on
3. Satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches
4. Satellite detected another infrared blip of an explosion.


(SA-15 Gauntlet / 9K330 / Tor-M1 are all the same system)

This is as close to confirmation we can get. If you believe U.S. Officials. And I know not everyone will.

https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 75459?s=20

The current theory is that it was an accident. Which makes sense because:

1. This crash happened after Iran had launched 20 missiles towards Iraq
2. Iranian military was expecting American retaliation in form of air strikes, and SAM system crews were likely on high alert and nervous.


Number two is not correct. Radar is mostly on. Maybe they mean radar lock?

Corrected as my initially post was in the middle of post. ???
Last edited by THS214 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1084
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:40 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705


Could fit, difficult to say, houses e.g. could fit for Iran.
Last edited by T4thH on Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2368
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:40 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Karlsands wrote:
Gasoline and jet fuel only weigh .8 pounds different


Heavy like "heavy oil" vs "light oil". Heavy = difficult to ignite. Maybe I did not use exactly the most appropriate words, but jet fuel is closer to diesel than to gasoline regarding the flammability.


You can drop a lit match into aviation kerosene and it'll just snuff right out.

The stuff has to be aerosol'd to ignite (hence why jet engines have fuel injectors to spray the fuel into the combustion chamber).

The reason you get fireballs in crash scenarios is the fuel is spread into the air, then an ignition source is found, completing the fire triangle.
 
southsidesilver
Posts: 98
Joined: Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:14 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:40 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705


Even though the video is poor, that sure looks like something hitting something the air.
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10714
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:41 pm

hivue wrote:
Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
The Iranians coming out and saying "The pilot tried to return the airport and failed" just smelled like total BS looking at the information we had from the beginning.

Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?


4) Airplane deviated from the SID back in the direction of the airport for whatever reason into an area where it wasn't expected to be and was shot down.


The satellite data ends before any significant deviation from course. I don’t really buy the theory that the plane accidentally drifted into an area it wasn’t suppose to be unless the plane’s course upon leaving the airport did not follow norm. I suspect the deviation was a result of the problem (whatever it was).
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:41 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705


We need to wait for confirmation but this looks bad :/

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos