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SuseJ772
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:08 pm

sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.


Telling. It will be interesting to see how this works out. In some cases if you are Iran, you are weirdly in a better position if it was a military accident than a rogue SAM - it’s easier to contain and ensure doesn’t happen again. If it is a rogue SAM, from a non-military source, insurance companies in the west will not allow flights and the air service their will get severely limited I would think.
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xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:08 pm

litz wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I haven't seen to many videos of missile strikes but wouldn't there be a fire coming from the 737 right after it gets hit by missile from all the fuel? That video shows what would appear to be a missile hit something and then there is nothing afterwards.


You'd need an ignition source to have a fire ... sliced open fuel tanks in a wing will just disperse into the airstream otherwise, not terribly dissimilar to fuel dumping on larger aircraft.


Sliced open fuel tanks and sliced open engines (due to explosion of a shrapnel filled missile close to the airplane) would catch fire within seconds.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:08 pm

THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Wouldn't the plane still have lights on? Why don't we see the plane? And why does a guy just happen to have his cell phone centered on the strike?


Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Yeah but he wasn't tracking the missile.
He was pointing at the plane.
Remember they were expecting retaliation after firing all those rockets so anything in the sky is/was a potential "target" to record.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
enilria wrote:
Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


You seem to be suggesting that the plane was deliberately targeted. I don't believe for one second that Iran, of all countries, would deliberately launch missiles at a civilian airliner (especially not one carrying Iranian citizens). If the missile shootdown is confirmed, it is a tragic accident that almost certainly involves human errors.

As with most aviation incidents, there will be a chain of events that led to this disaster. If any one of those doesn't happen, all those folks are still alive.

No, I'm suggested they were fooled into shooting it down by hacking. Probably same for MH17.
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:10 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
Got it.

I'm just saying given the surrounding events, the likelihood is massively greater that the plane was shotdown rather than a mechanical event. That's just based on statistics. The rarity of mechanical failure compared with the certainty that missiles were flying around and the U.S. had given an overflight warning tells me that a mechanical event is the less likely outcome. Generally, while it is not the strict definition, people refer to the less likely story as a "conspiracy theory". In this case I think mechanical failure is the less likely theory being promulgated by the Iranians trying to cover that they shot down an airliner. Of course, I also post that I think it is likely that they were hacked/hoodwinked into believing it was an enemy.

It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


Speaking of conspiracy theories, that IS a conspiracy theory.

If I understand your reasoning correctly, you believe it's more likely the U.S. intentionally hide / spoofed the transponder identity of the 737, intentionally killing nearly 200 civilians - than Iranian SAM system crews making a terrible mistake?

I don't think that is credible.

Transponder spoofing isn't new or technically difficult.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-b ... gets-25678.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm

flybucky wrote:
"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source. The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction."
https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-cr ... SL1N29D1DU


2175301 wrote:
I don't buy that at all. No normal commercial security service will ever hear a tweet of what the real intelligence agencies have on the details of this event - and the announcement is way to soon as it's unlikely that the intelligence agencies even know what data they really have at this point. I saw a news item saying the CIA was looking at their data... which makes sense.

A reality is a lot of intelligence is recorded and only reviewed later (often weeks to months later).
To restate - I do not believe that the real intelligence agencies would tell some private security company what they had, and so fast. This sounds like a false story to me.


You were right about it. But I think you misinterpreted (or it was poorly worded) the meaning of "security source". I don't think they meant a private/commercial security company. That would be ridiculous, they would have no knowledge. I think they meant more like "national security" like NSA.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm

So questions, now that some "reputable" sources are saying military action, has the Iranian Government taken any further action to secure the site, deploy more personnel to "preserve" the scene, widen the exclusion zone, limit access?

If the a/c was off track as per the graphic from previous pages, could that be the result of an emergency with pilots being distracted responding to the emergency and not maintaining proper track? Do we have any scanners of ATC channels to confirm that there was no communication of an emergency?
 
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sergegva
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm

sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm

THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Wouldn't the plane still have lights on? Why don't we see the plane? And why does a guy just happen to have his cell phone centered on the strike?


Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Allegedly two missiles were fired. Maybe he heard/saw the first and then started filming? I don't know and can't verify what that video is showing, just a suggestion.
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LEJCargo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:11 pm

THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Wouldn't the plane still have lights on? Why don't we see the plane? And why does a guy just happen to have his cell phone centered on the strike?


Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


I am not trying to defend the video, since I have no proof that it is real, but I just want to say it is not impossible to film something like that. Especially if that guy lives near the base where missiles came from. It wasn't very exact, he just pointed in the right direction and was probably also lucky. The guy on 9/11 also managed to film the first impact by luckily pointing the camera in the right direction.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:12 pm

SuseJ772 wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.


Telling. It will be interesting to see how this works out. In some cases if you are Iran, you are weirdly in a better position if it was a military accident than a rogue SAM - it’s easier to contain and ensure doesn’t happen again. If it is a rogue SAM, from a non-military source, insurance companies in the west will not allow flights and the air service their will get severely limited I would think.


It will mean Iran becoming even more isolated in the world. LH has gone down in my estimation. UIA cancelled all IKA flights, LH group didn't. Only now it's become clear it's a missile they have changed.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:13 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:

Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Yeah but he wasn't tracking the missile.
He was pointing at the plane.
Remember they were expecting retaliation after firing all those rockets so anything in the sky is/was a potential "target" to record.

Do we have confirmed timelines of when the general population were advised that Iran had retaliated against American interest that the average man on the street would start looking skyward expecting some retaliation and thus have phones at the ready to "capture" something of interest?
 
bennett123
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:14 pm

mysift

Noted your point about it being shot down by another country.

I can think of 2, not on your list.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:14 pm

par13del wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
THS214 wrote:

That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Yeah but he wasn't tracking the missile.
He was pointing at the plane.
Remember they were expecting retaliation after firing all those rockets so anything in the sky is/was a potential "target" to record.

Do we have confirmed timelines of when the general population were advised that Iran had retaliated against American interest that the average man on the street would start looking skyward expecting some retaliation and thus have phones at the ready to "capture" something of interest?


Seriously?
Advised??
Where have you been in past 72 hours lol
And I get that reading twitter in your couch isn't exactly a reason to be alarmed but when you are (I assume) in the center of a potential retaliatory attack from the US of A you sure AF are expecting anything and anytime.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705


We need to wait for confirmation but this looks bad :/

I cannot verify location, but that is a surface to air intercept. A pretty big warhead too, it seems to be far more than a man carried rocket could have.

What I don't know is where that was, when something was hit, or what was hit.

Lightsaber



Check out these coordinates in google maps: 35.489244, 50.907144

The camera angle seems to be pointing north to north east from approximately that location, the aircraft would enter the frame from right to left and it is next to its last location based on FR24.

We can also see the photos of the said buildings, rows of 5 story rectangular buildings, buildings that are very similar to what you see in the video posted on twitter.

Viper911
Last edited by Viper911 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:15 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Alleged video of a missile hitting the aircraft. Can't confirm the authenticity

https://twitter.com/NarimanGharib/statu ... 6937928705


We need to wait for confirmation but this looks bad :/



Interesting, I see a report of the SAM remains by an account posting in Farsi. I think the general public is suspicious enough where we will see any evidence that might exist even if the government doesn't volunteer it.
情報
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:15 pm

THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Wouldn't the plane still have lights on? Why don't we see the plane? And why does a guy just happen to have his cell phone centered on the strike?


Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Given the delay between AA launch and sound of the missile launching reaching the guy recording the video, I'm amazed how quick he was able to get his phone out. Barely a second after he starts recording the video, the missile hits the plane.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:17 pm

par13del wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
THS214 wrote:

That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Yeah but he wasn't tracking the missile.
He was pointing at the plane.
Remember they were expecting retaliation after firing all those rockets so anything in the sky is/was a potential "target" to record.

Do we have confirmed timelines of when the general population were advised that Iran had retaliated against American interest that the average man on the street would start looking skyward expecting some retaliation and thus have phones at the ready to "capture" something of interest?


The immediate accounts of people living nearby involve hearing an explosion and taking cover because they thought it was a US counterattack. Yes, they were aware.
情報
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:17 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:

Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Given the delay between AA launch and sound of the missile launching reaching the guy recording the video, I'm amazed how quick he was able to get his phone out. Barely a second after he starts recording the video, the missile hits the plane.


Possible reports of two missiles. Perhaps the first didn't do enough damage so they sent another one. Having heard the first missile the filmer could have pointed their phone skyward to see what happens and whoever did this then fired the second rocket.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:17 pm

Based on the impact vs. sound on that video, the filmer is about 5 miles from the impact, which seems about right based on the coordinates posted earlier.
Last edited by smokeybandit on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
khobar95
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:17 pm

Found this on youtube from years ago. Shows a night missle launch that hit a Ukrainian transport plane. It's interesting in that there is no (apparent) visible fireball descending similar to the twitter video. Maybe it was cloudy. The video is also highly compressed.

Again, this was from years ago.

https://youtu.be/MFnaGx-8cwc
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:18 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.

Some of us have investigated accidents, on contract for very specific tasks from the FAA. I reviewed two crashes data independently (I couldn't ask questions as I was the sanity check). One was simultaneous engine oil starvation. The other was... pilot suicide with a large number of involuntary participants.

I find a.net finds the information quickly, but then we swirl. This crash is horrid, no matter the cause.

I worry about those who want punishment. Aviation becomes safer by a no fault find the solution mentality. I'm not saying no one be reprimanded, but this needs a true root cause. That means EASA or another qualified analysis group work the black boxes (obviously not the FAA, which is fine, EASA knows their Boeing contacts).

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TheRacingElf
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:19 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:

Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Given the delay between AA launch and sound of the missile launching reaching the guy recording the video, I'm amazed how quick he was able to get his phone out. Barely a second after he starts recording the video, the missile hits the plane.


Or he was filming for much longer but cut the video short to where the action happens
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:20 pm

LEJCargo wrote:
THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:

Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


I am not trying to defend the video, since I have no proof that it is real, but I just want to say it is not impossible to film something like that. Especially if that guy lives near the base where missiles came from. It wasn't very exact, he just pointed in the right direction and was probably also lucky. The guy on 9/11 also managed to film the first impact by luckily pointing the camera in the right direction.


On 9/11, he was actively filming, heard the sound of jet engines, and instinctively pointed UP ... in the canyons of NYC buildings, there really isn't much to point at other than UP, after all.

He caught the impact as a result.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:20 pm

THS214 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
THS214 wrote:

Number two is not correct. Radar is mostly on. Maybe they mean radar lock?

Corrected as my initially post was in the middle of post. ???


They don't provide any more information. But like you probably know, there are different levels of radar systems. The tracking radar on the Tor-M1 might have been turned on because of reports of an unkown aircraft by a secondary source. Could be visual or another radar. The Tor-M1 battery would not leave radar on continously as it leaves it vulnerable to SEAD. These are the types of details we likely won't have until the final report comes out years from now.


That is possible.

What about my other post where I challenged you? No answer you accept?


I didn't completely understand what you meant with the earlier post. You said you have proven me wrong on something, but I'm not sure what that was about. My guess is it was about the intention behind the Rouhani tweet. In that case, I disagree with you. I do however agree (like I said in the post you quoted) that this thing was accidental.

The forum rules have become quite strict. We are not allowed to do personal back and forth posts - at least not to an unnecessary degree. And since I wasn't entirely sure what you meant, I chose not to respond to that one.

Enjoy the rest of your afternoon / evening, and let's stick to the topic at hand and move forward.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:22 pm

bennett123 wrote:
mysift

Noted your point about it being shot down by another country.

I can think of 2, not on your list.


Tehran is too far inland (and not in unstable region like MH17) for the plane to have been shot down by another country. Iran would have quickly learned and run screaming about it.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:22 pm

THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Wouldn't the plane still have lights on? Why don't we see the plane? And why does a guy just happen to have his cell phone centered on the strike?


Looks like he was walking his dog and probably heard a missile launch so he quickly took a video and then barely caught the impact. Someone wrote, that the suspected launch site was very close to the impact zone.


That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


It seems like everything would have to be just right to catch that so quickly. But if the missile is moving away from him, and he already had a smartphone out and open doing something else why he was walking, then when the glow of a boost motor only a mile or two away on a hazy night may have motivated him to immediately swipe to his camera to see what he might catch.

The odds of any individual doing this is low. But I see several small villages around the airport that could potential comprise several thousand people, and with enough people, the odds add up.

I am definitely treating the video with skepticism, but it does appear to be moderate altitude, which a surface to air missile could reach in a few seconds, and the apparent haziness of the air (not enough to significantly impede the view, but definitely enough to create significant skyglow from a bright flash) seems consistent with the video reportedly show the already burning aircraft crashing and exploding.
 
dragon6172
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:23 pm

Viper911 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

We need to wait for confirmation but this looks bad :/

I cannot verify location, but that is a surface to air intercept. A pretty big warhead too, it seems to be far more than a man carried rocket could have.

What I don't know is where that was, when something was hit, or what was hit.

Lightsaber



Check out these coordinates in google maps: 35.489244, 50.907144

The camera angle seems to be pointing north to north west from approximately that location, the aircraft would enter the frame from right to left and it is next to its last location based on FR24.

We can also see the photos of the said buildings, rows of 5 story rectangular buildings, buildings that are very similar to what you see in the video posted on twitter.

Viper911

I think you mean camera pointed North to Northeast, but agree otherwise.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:23 pm

enilria wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
enilria wrote:
It now appears that mechanical failure is officially a conspiracy as BBC reports there is satellite evidence of two missile launches.

Three things remain unanswered:
1) Why they would shoot at a 737-800? I take you back to my theory on page 15 or so that the transponder was spoofed or hidden causing the defense system to target the aircraft. It is also high suspicious that the plane hit was not from a world power like China/Russia that would invite significant geo-political trouble or a regional ally like UAE, rather it was Ukraine...not unlike Malaysia in terms of the type of country that won't dig too deeply.
2) Why did the ADS-B stop broadcasting 3-4 minutes before the plane crashed? I take you back to #1 or #3.
3) Why did the plane turn back toward the airport? BBC says two missiles fired. I propose the plane was damaged by the first one and destroyed by the second one.


Speaking of conspiracy theories, that IS a conspiracy theory.

If I understand your reasoning correctly, you believe it's more likely the U.S. intentionally hide / spoofed the transponder identity of the 737, intentionally killing nearly 200 civilians - than Iranian SAM system crews making a terrible mistake?

I don't think that is credible.

Transponder spoofing isn't new or technically difficult.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-b ... gets-25678.


I understand that. I just don't think it's the more likely thing to happen here. I think this whole thing was accidental and tragic. I don't think the US (or anyone else) spoofed the transponder ID on a civilian airliner. That would be like intentionally killing civilians. I don't think that happened.
 
adamant365
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:23 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Based on the impact vs. sound on that video, the filmer is about 5 miles from the impact.

Sound does not travel 5 miles in 10 seconds. Sound travels roughly 1000 ft/sec so the viewer is more like 2-3 miles (straight line) from the missile impact.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:23 pm

Like I said earlier, a fireball requires that fuel flowing from the stricken aircraft meet an ignition source.

Only if you had active fuel pumping into a running (and stricken) engine would you have fire.

The airstream would pull the fuel immediately well past the wing (and engines), otherwise.

Where you start getting fireballs is when piece of airplane start breaking off as the structure breaks up, possibly adding ignition sources into the airstream where the fuel is already dispersing.

Alternative source would be sparking from cut wires, etc, inside wings, with airflow into the wing adding necessary oxygen for ignition.
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:25 pm

dragon6172 wrote:
Viper911 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I cannot verify location, but that is a surface to air intercept. A pretty big warhead too, it seems to be far more than a man carried rocket could have.

What I don't know is where that was, when something was hit, or what was hit.

Lightsaber



Check out these coordinates in google maps: 35.489244, 50.907144

The camera angle seems to be pointing north to north west from approximately that location, the aircraft would enter the frame from right to left and it is next to its last location based on FR24.

We can also see the photos of the said buildings, rows of 5 story rectangular buildings, buildings that are very similar to what you see in the video posted on twitter.

Viper911

I think you mean camera pointed North to Northeast, but agree otherwise.


Sorry yes, N-NE

Viper911
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:26 pm

adamant365 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
Based on the impact vs. sound on that video, the filmer is about 5 miles from the impact.

Sound does not travel 5 miles in 10 seconds. Sound travels roughly 1000 ft/sec so the viewer is more like 2-3 miles (straight line) from the missile impact.


Duh, I divided by 2 not 5 for some reason.
 
THS214
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.

Some of us have investigated accidents, on contract for very specific tasks from the FAA. I reviewed two crashes data independently (I couldn't ask questions as I was the sanity check). One was simultaneous engine oil starvation. The other was... pilot suicide with a large number of involuntary participants.

I find a.net finds the information quickly, but then we swirl. This crash is horrid, no matter the cause.

I worry about those who want punishment. Aviation becomes safer by a no fault find the solution mentality. I'm not saying no one be reprimanded, but this needs a true root cause. That means EASA or another qualified analysis group work the black boxes (obviously not the FAA, which is fine, EASA knows their Boeing contacts).

Lightsaber


Can understand you fully. 30 years ago I was in a classroom where an investigator showed us pictures of what you really see in an accident site. After that I never thought the site is pretty. In this Ukrainian case we see body bags, not what there is inside like dismembered bodies, heads nowhere near the body, blood, guts etc. Once you see that, you hope it never happens again.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:28 pm

Per CNN,

Iran's IAB has stated they will go to BEA or TSB for assistance on the black boxes, due to damage. No great surprise there, considering the NTSB would be ruled out due to politics.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:29 pm

If this was a missile hit Iran has bigger internal problems.

Why would any one target a departing aircraft from Tehran. The idea of air defenses (SAM/AAA) is to look for incoming. Its not that enemies of Iran are operating civilian aircraft from Tehran.

Also why would Iran fire missiles from Tehran into Iraq. Waste of missile range.
All posts are just opinions.
 
bennett123
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:30 pm

polot

I was thinking about a MANPAD.

There are a number of countries in the region with a grudge against Iran.

How far would some of them go to trigger a conflict leading to regime change?.
 
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sergegva
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:30 pm

sergegva wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Ok... Less than 24h ago, Western intelligence agencies said: this is probably not a missile.
They added an oddly peremptory comment (similar to the "technical problem" used by Iran just after the tragedy btw): "the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated".

Source: Reuters (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/western-in ... e/45481100)

And now, a Pentagon official and a U.S. senior intelligence official said "we know it was a missile" ?! This raises a number of important questions!

First, how did they know, yesterday, that one of the plane's engines had overheated?
Second, how could they change their minds so quickly?

Looks like the watchword was at first to cover up the Iranian blunder, but the information eventually leaked out. Why? Could this be an indication of an American involvement (hacking into Iranian air defence systems, or aircraft identification systems in the area?) Or just an attempt to calm things down to avoid a violent reaction from an Iran having lost face?


1. The "Western intelligence agencies" in that article was one guy from Canada.
2. The "some evidence engines had overheated" sounds like he watched flames coming from the aircraft as it fell to the ground in a Twitter video. I don't think this guy knows anything about airplanes.
3. Now - the next day - new evidence has surfaced. In the form of a radar signal detected (from the Tor-M1), then two infrared blips on the satellite data indicating 2 missiles were launched, and then another blip when the aircraft was hit.
4. They didn't change their minds.You're hearing from different people. Some within the loop, and others who wish they were.


Thanks for that interesting answer. It in turn raises the question of the power of news agencies such as Reuters, which set the tone for almost all the media in the Western world when it comes to breaking news. If the simple assumptions of a Canadian secret service someone turn into "a missile is not involved, westerners assure us", we have a big problem...


I'm at it again.
Problem is, it was not a single canadian guy only.

"But an initial assessment by Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources — three Americans, one European and the Canadian — who asked not to be named told Reuters".

See: https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/ukr ... 176-people (or: https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/o2sj.png)

Reuters and a good part of the websites having taken up this news yesterday, by the way, no longer show it. You can still find it by doing a google search, but no longer on the pages themselves (https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/q2y9.png).

Therefore, it seems that yesterday, the agenda of Western countries' secret services was to say "it's not a missile, it's the engine".
 
aircatalonia
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:31 pm

People seem to have done the math: 10 sec for the sound to arrive puts the plane about 11000ft away. Landscape seems consistent with the town of Parand, about 1km south of where the ADS-B stopped transmitting. Everything seems to match. I think the cause of the crash is clear.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:32 pm

Is the time line of events taht the aircraft was delayed? Iran fired missiles into Iraq and then Iran expected retribution? The 737 took off late and we feel that Iranian action suspected the 737 to be an attacking american air force aircraft so shot it down?

If so Iran will have to pay huge compensation just as America did when they shot down an Iranian civil airliner.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:35 pm

Polot wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Polot wrote:
Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?


The crash site is only like <10 miles away from the last transponder position no? I believe the non-cockpit sections of MH17 continued to "fly" undirected for as long as another 1.5-2 minutes after its hit before impact so I'm not sure how much you can really read into that.


They don’t fly “undirected” they generally follow the momentum they had. Based on the crash location and last transponder location with direction of the plane’s travel it is hard to see how the debris can end up where it was unless the pilots were purposely turning the plane. But I suppose it is technically possible a missile could do enough damage to result in an uncommanded turn but still be “flightworthy” enough to keep it from immediately plummeting straight down.


If you compare the FR24 path of the accident flight and the previous day, there is a slight right turn made a little bit after takeoff and depending on where an explosion hit it could direct it that way. Also if you look at the last known radar point and debris field comparison of the MH17 and the MetroJet A321 bombing the debris really doesn’t follow the flight path of the aircraft in either case.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:36 pm

Polot wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Polot wrote:
Well they are right that it appears the pilots tried to return to the airport but failed. The crash site is not where the satellite data is lost and suggests the crew was turning the plane back. The question is why-

1) Actual technical issue like major uncontained engine failure that did catastrophic damage?

2) Accidental missile hit?

3) Bomb/other act of sabotage?


The crash site is only like <10 miles away from the last transponder position no? I believe the non-cockpit sections of MH17 continued to "fly" undirected for as long as another 1.5-2 minutes after its hit before impact so I'm not sure how much you can really read into that.


They don’t fly “undirected” they generally follow the momentum they had. Based on the crash location and last transponder location with direction of the plane’s travel it is hard to see how the debris can end up where it was unless the pilots were purposely turning the plane. But I suppose it is technically possible a missile could do enough damage to result in an uncommanded turn but still be “flightworthy” enough to keep it from immediately plummeting straight down.


I meant undirected when referring to MH17 only in the sense that much of the plane continued to fly for some period with no meaningful human or automated ability to direct the remaining flight after the strike. At that point it’s more like a ballistics analysis, with airplane fragments that could retain some aerodynamic properties. I don’t think a disparity between the last data point and the wreckage location is really enough to read anything too deeply into at the moment.
 
2175301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 pm

Apparently there is already some confirmation that the buildings in the missile hit video are from the area; and the NY Times has apparently gotten a high resolution copy of the original and is working to obtain pictures to verify the location of the buildings and structures. This per...


https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1 ... 7972404226

If the NY Times can validate the location... they will tell us. I also expect them to tell us if the buildings and structures do not match up to the claimed location.

Have a great day,
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:38 pm

litz wrote:
Per CNN,

Iran's IAB has stated they will go to BEA or TSB for assistance on the black boxes, due to damage. No great surprise there, considering the NTSB would be ruled out due to politics.


Interesting. There was a pic much earlier which showed a group of people standing around one of the black boxes. Other than seeing some dirt and soot, the boxes appeared physically quite intact.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:40 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Blankbarcode wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:

It’s not jumping to conclusions when the evidence is staring you right in the face.



It still is if there is no credible source. With all due respect, you as a member of the public, presumably thousands of miles away, know nothing. I know the current age allows for instantaneous results and data, but events like this don't follow that logic. ESPECIALLY in the fog of war.


I’m a professional pilot I know what causes aircraft to fall to the earth in a ball of fire......and it isn’t an overheated engine, it isn’t an in a un-contained engine failure.

How many Un-contained engine failures have we seen just in the last 2 years? Non have punctured the fuel tank and blew up an airliner.

Engine fires can be extinguished by the pilot. And in no case should an engine malfunction cause an airliner to fall 8,000 feet straight down in a ball of flames, I don’t care if both pilots on the flight deck were the worst at the airline.

The last plane I can think of that fell out of the sky in a ball of flames was TWA 800.....jury is still out on whether or not that was a missile or the empty center fuel tank.

Also there were pictures that showed shrapnel damage, people who were military can identify that.

So you may not know anything as a member of the public but there are members here that do know a lot.

As a pilot, you should also be aware that being circumspect and getting the facts straight are important. Uncontained engine failure can rupture fuel lines and tanks and can result in fires and even 'fireballs', not to mention cause catastrophic damage to flight controls. That is why they are categorised 'Catastrophic' and the boffin types do everything possible to protect and mitigate against them. Engine fires can be extinguished providing the suppression system is working and effective that can of course be disrupted by a failure in the first place. Engine fire can result in a further uncontained disk failure before the fire is extinguished or spread if not extinguished.

Any of these scenarios could result in the a/c failing out of the sky from 8kft, but this particular UIA event did not. Even if the event was engine related and not missile, as now seems most likely, the a/c flew on for several minutes with some apparent effort at crash landing.

There is only one picture that could show shrapnel damage, in my view. The cabin section cited clearly isn't showing such and the vertical stabiliser damage is far too large to be missile shrapnel and does not show on the port side leaving only the (what looks like) flap section and it is not clear that is not damage from uncontained engine failure or other impact damage. Does not mean it was not a missile, but these can not be used as evidence that it was.

More humility and consideration of the available information and less bluster please.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:40 pm

sergegva wrote:
sergegva wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

1. The "Western intelligence agencies" in that article was one guy from Canada.
2. The "some evidence engines had overheated" sounds like he watched flames coming from the aircraft as it fell to the ground in a Twitter video. I don't think this guy knows anything about airplanes.
3. Now - the next day - new evidence has surfaced. In the form of a radar signal detected (from the Tor-M1), then two infrared blips on the satellite data indicating 2 missiles were launched, and then another blip when the aircraft was hit.
4. They didn't change their minds.You're hearing from different people. Some within the loop, and others who wish they were.


Thanks for that interesting answer. It in turn raises the question of the power of news agencies such as Reuters, which set the tone for almost all the media in the Western world when it comes to breaking news. If the simple assumptions of a Canadian secret service someone turn into "a missile is not involved, westerners assure us", we have a big problem...


I'm at it again.
Problem is, it was not a single canadian guy only.

"But an initial assessment by Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources — three Americans, one European and the Canadian — who asked not to be named told Reuters".

See: https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/ukr ... 176-people (or: https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/o2sj.png)

Reuters and a good part of the websites having taken up this news yesterday, by the way, no longer show it. You can still find it by doing a google search, but no longer on the pages themselves (https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/q2y9.png).

Therefore, it seems that yesterday, the agenda of Western countries' secret services was to say "it's not a missile, it's the engine".


That's interesting.

I think there are geopolitical considerations going on here.

But we need to remember that we have new information the last 12 hours or so. Including the images of the SA-15 missile, but more importantly Pentagon reports about detecting the radar and infrared blips on the satellite surveillance data.

I think the reason the latter took so long to become public, is that every time the Pentagon is publishing their information, they are revealing the level of detail and survaillance they have over Iran. From their latest findings, we know they can detect missile launches (even relatively small ones like the Tor-M1), they can detect missile impacts, and they can detect SAM systems radar being turned on deep inside Iran. I don't think they would choose to publish this info unless they had to.
Last edited by JetBuddy on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:41 pm

sergegva wrote:
sergegva wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

1. The "Western intelligence agencies" in that article was one guy from Canada.
2. The "some evidence engines had overheated" sounds like he watched flames coming from the aircraft as it fell to the ground in a Twitter video. I don't think this guy knows anything about airplanes.
3. Now - the next day - new evidence has surfaced. In the form of a radar signal detected (from the Tor-M1), then two infrared blips on the satellite data indicating 2 missiles were launched, and then another blip when the aircraft was hit.
4. They didn't change their minds.You're hearing from different people. Some within the loop, and others who wish they were.


Thanks for that interesting answer. It in turn raises the question of the power of news agencies such as Reuters, which set the tone for almost all the media in the Western world when it comes to breaking news. If the simple assumptions of a Canadian secret service someone turn into "a missile is not involved, westerners assure us", we have a big problem...


I'm at it again.
Problem is, it was not a single canadian guy only.

"But an initial assessment by Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources — three Americans, one European and the Canadian — who asked not to be named told Reuters".

See: https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/ukr ... 176-people (or: https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/o2sj.png)

Reuters and a good part of the websites having taken up this news yesterday, by the way, no longer show it. You can still find it by doing a google search, but no longer on the pages themselves (https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/q2y9.png).

Therefore, it seems that yesterday, the agenda of Western countries' secret services was to say "it's not a missile, it's the engine".



Information gathered by western intelligence agencies is compartmentalized, it takes a while for one person to review all of the data surrounding a single event.
 
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sergegva
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:41 pm

par13del wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
THS214 wrote:

That camera was ready. See how fast that projectile moves?


Yeah but he wasn't tracking the missile.
He was pointing at the plane.
Remember they were expecting retaliation after firing all those rockets so anything in the sky is/was a potential "target" to record.

Do we have confirmed timelines of when the general population were advised that Iran had retaliated against American interest that the average man on the street would start looking skyward expecting some retaliation and thus have phones at the ready to "capture" something of interest?


The first missiles were launched at 1h45 (local time) according to the Iraqi army and the plane took off 4h30 later at 6h12. That leaves some time.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:43 pm

VS11 wrote:
According to Bloomberg, Iran says jet tried to turn back.

"The Boeing Co. jet that crashed near Tehran on Wednesday tried to turn back after takeoff, Iran revealed in an initial report as Ukraine said it’s examining scenarios including a missile strike and terrorism."

Iran Says Crash Jet Tried to Turn Back, While Ukraine Probes Missile Theory
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium


Looks like the article has been updated and the "turn back" part has been removed. I could not find any text about turning back in the article when I looked. (Although you can tell from the URL that was the original headline).

"January 8, 2020, 11:16 PM PST Updated on January 9, 2020, 8:45 AM PST"
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:43 pm

What's the launch range of one of those missiles and how prevalent are they outside military hands? Meaning, could it have been some rogue faction that shot it or could it only have been the Iran military?

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