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LEJCargo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:45 pm

Trudeau confirmed a missile strike
 
MadameConcorde
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:45 pm

sergegva wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
wjcandee
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:45 pm

The US intelligence community, contrary to initial reports here on a.net, has evidence of radar being switched on and two launches. https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/iran-beli ... -accident/

This makes sense because a lot of analysis is done retrospectively. We probably also have a bunch of sigint to go through of the aftermath.
Last edited by wjcandee on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
awthompson
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:46 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
THS214 wrote:
LEJCargo wrote:

It seems like everything would have to be just right to catch that so quickly. But if the missile is moving away from him, and he already had a smartphone out and open doing something else why he was walking, then when the glow of a boost motor only a mile or two away on a hazy night may have motivated him to immediately swipe to his camera to see what he might catch.

The odds of any individual doing this is low. But I see several small villages around the airport that could potential comprise several thousand people, and with enough people, the odds add up.


Nowadays there's very little that happens where somebody doesn't get footage. After most aircraft accidents in recent times, videos soon emerged.
Security cameras, mobile phones, dashcams etc. In some recent emergency landings and crashes, we even have on board passenger footage.
 
2175301
Posts: 1898
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:46 pm

sergegva wrote:
sergegva wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

1. The "Western intelligence agencies" in that article was one guy from Canada.
2. The "some evidence engines had overheated" sounds like he watched flames coming from the aircraft as it fell to the ground in a Twitter video. I don't think this guy knows anything about airplanes.
3. Now - the next day - new evidence has surfaced. In the form of a radar signal detected (from the Tor-M1), then two infrared blips on the satellite data indicating 2 missiles were launched, and then another blip when the aircraft was hit.
4. They didn't change their minds.You're hearing from different people. Some within the loop, and others who wish they were.


Thanks for that interesting answer. It in turn raises the question of the power of news agencies such as Reuters, which set the tone for almost all the media in the Western world when it comes to breaking news. If the simple assumptions of a Canadian secret service someone turn into "a missile is not involved, westerners assure us", we have a big problem...


I'm at it again.
Problem is, it was not a single canadian guy only.

"But an initial assessment by Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile, five security sources — three Americans, one European and the Canadian — who asked not to be named told Reuters".

See: https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/ukr ... 176-people (or: https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/o2sj.png)

Reuters and a good part of the websites having taken up this news yesterday, by the way, no longer show it. You can still find it by doing a google search, but no longer on the pages themselves (https://zupimages.net/up/20/02/q2y9.png).

Therefore, it seems that yesterday, the agenda of Western countries' secret services was to say "it's not a missile, it's the engine".


The real problem is that no real intelligence agency would say anything other than "we have no comment at this time" (or similar) to such a question so soon after any event. Actually, that's their normal comment for any question unless they specifically decided to release something. In a few cases they might reply along the line of "we will look into that."

The story was bogus. It speaks very poorly of Reuters to ever have even run it.

Have a great day,
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:46 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Why would any one target a departing aircraft from Tehran.


I don't think anyone has suggested that Iran deliberately targeted a civilian airliner. Most likely explanation is a tragic mistake, not unlike IR655.
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sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:48 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


I think it'll be due to developments in news of it likely being a missile which only happened over the couple of hours.
 
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stasisLAX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:48 pm

Blankbarcode wrote:
Was this already shared? CCTV allegedly from the moment the aircraft hit the ground. The light before the blast definitely shows the intensity of the fire before impact

https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/video-sho ... s-in-iran/


Dear God, that's horrible. Notice all of the small flaming shrapnel holes in the wreckage. Condolences to the victim's families and loved ones. :brokenheart:
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
surclaro
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:49 pm

Alright, considering @michi's amazing post on page 25 and the known trajectory of the aircraft, and considering the alleged location of the video posted by edu2703 on page 28 (with a distance from impact calculation of 3km; also assuming the video is genuine), AND assuming there were two missiles fired as per US Gov Intel, I allege the video shows the SECOND missile impact and not the first one for one main reason:

The 3km radius alleged will have the airplane-missile collision AFTER the airplane left its planned path out of IKA

Now, there can be multiple reasons why the airplane does not appear on fire after the first missile impact, which we can speculate about, including the crappy phone video, shot next to a strong light source, which potentially obscures small source of light at a distance such as NAV lights or an existing fire.

sc
 
Gingersnap
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:50 pm

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215352457972404226?s=19

Video claims to show the impact of the missile when it struck the aircraft.

Unconfirmed for now.
Last edited by Gingersnap on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:50 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


I mean, would you want to be flying in Iranian airspace currently?
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:51 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


US intelligence officials as well as the Pentagon are saying the Ukraine flight was shot down, likely by accident.

So it could be an abundance of precaution.
 
afgeneral
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:51 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:
sevenair wrote:
LH600 returning to FRA.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 0#2377a7a5


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


maybe trying to prevent being shot down by some trigger happy SAM operator?
 
Varsity1
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Why would any one target a departing aircraft from Tehran.


I don't think anyone has suggested that Iran deliberately targeted a civilian airliner. Most likely explanation is a tragic mistake, not unlike IR655.


The action might not be deliberate, but the following deception is.

Iran is waiting to see if they can get away with the 'mechanical fault' theory. They clearly know they have a missile launcher with two empty launch rails right now.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:52 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
What's the launch range of one of those missiles and how prevalent are they outside military hands? Meaning, could it have been some rogue faction that shot it or could it only have been the Iran military?


Range of a Tor missile is about 15 km and effective range is 1500 to 12000 meters. The system would have a Radar, a command center and a missile launcher vehicles, so at least 3 vehicles are needed for operation.

Viper911
Last edited by Viper911 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:53 pm

hivue wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How is Ethiopia less advanced than Iran?


I believe Ethiopia had to send their MAX recorders to France for reading.


That has nothing to do with how advanced the country is.

United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....

Draken21fx wrote:
In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.

The person behind the twitter account lives in California (if his profile and the TV news pics are to be trusted), the account was opened only recently and from a quick search I can find no trace of him on social media.

I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.


Good observation. We currently live in the misinformation age.
First to fly the 787-9
 
32andBelow
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:55 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Why would any one target a departing aircraft from Tehran.


I don't think anyone has suggested that Iran deliberately targeted a civilian airliner. Most likely explanation is a tragic mistake, not unlike IR655.


The action might not be deliberate, but the following deception is.

Iran is waiting to see if they can get away with the 'mechanical fault' theory. They clearly know they have a missile launcher with two empty launch rails right now.

They probably reloaded it
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:55 pm

People are putting too much stock in "American/Canadian/whomever security sources"

What's a security source anyway? May well have been some retired person willing to try to get a buck for his comments and not someone with any actual insight into anything
 
Varsity1
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:00 pm

Somewhat related: Iraq just summoned the Iranian ambassador in protest.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
morrisond
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:00 pm

Gingersnap wrote:
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215352457972404226?s=19

Video claims to show the impact of the missile when it struck the aircraft.

Unconfirmed for now.


You can see the missile rising from the left - very disturbing.
 
chiefs11
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:00 pm

For what it is worth, the so called "Ruptly" image is definetly at the crash site...

It can be seen here, in the image from the ISNA website:
Image

Original image: https://www.isna.ir/photo/98101813851/%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%88%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C#62

Whether or not the remains of the missile were actually found at that location remains to be seen. I don't see how it could have ended up there if the missile impact was actually several miles away, but we will hopefully find out in time.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:02 pm

afgeneral wrote:
MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


maybe trying to prevent being shot down by some trigger happy SAM operator?

It could also be with the new information the insurer or owner of the aircraft (if leased) is not comfortable with the aircraft being in Iran, at least with the current level of insurance that LH had on the flight.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:02 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Blankbarcode wrote:


It still is if there is no credible source. With all due respect, you as a member of the public, presumably thousands of miles away, know nothing. I know the current age allows for instantaneous results and data, but events like this don't follow that logic. ESPECIALLY in the fog of war.


I’m a professional pilot I know what causes aircraft to fall to the earth in a ball of fire......and it isn’t an overheated engine, it isn’t an in a un-contained engine failure.

How many Un-contained engine failures have we seen just in the last 2 years? Non have punctured the fuel tank and blew up an airliner.

Engine fires can be extinguished by the pilot. And in no case should an engine malfunction cause an airliner to fall 8,000 feet straight down in a ball of flames, I don’t care if both pilots on the flight deck were the worst at the airline.

The last plane I can think of that fell out of the sky in a ball of flames was TWA 800.....jury is still out on whether or not that was a missile or the empty center fuel tank.

Also there were pictures that showed shrapnel damage, people who were military can identify that.

So you may not know anything as a member of the public but there are members here that do know a lot.

As a pilot, you should also be aware that being circumspect and getting the facts straight are important. Uncontained engine failure can rupture fuel lines and tanks and can result in fires and even 'fireballs', not to mention cause catastrophic damage to flight controls. That is why they are categorised 'Catastrophic' and the boffin types do everything possible to protect and mitigate against them. Engine fires can be extinguished providing the suppression system is working and effective that can of course be disrupted by a failure in the first place. Engine fire can result in a further uncontained disk failure before the fire is extinguished or spread if not extinguished.

Any of these scenarios could result in the a/c failing out of the sky from 8kft, but this particular UIA event did not. Even if the event was engine related and not missile, as now seems most likely, the a/c flew on for several minutes with some apparent effort at crash landing.

There is only one picture that could show shrapnel damage, in my view. The cabin section cited clearly isn't showing such and the vertical stabiliser damage is far too large to be missile shrapnel and does not show on the port side leaving only the (what looks like) flap section and it is not clear that is not damage from uncontained engine failure or other impact damage. Does not mean it was not a missile, but these can not be used as evidence that it was.

More humility and consideration of the available information and less bluster please.


When you pull the fire handle you cut the fuel to the engine so a severed fuel line would not keep burning. Sure all fire suppression could fail but not likely.

Give me one example of a un-contained engine failure rupturing a fuel tank and exploding. Jet fuel doesn’t explode, it burns. IF the engine is on fire AND the fuel tank is leaking fuel AND you can’t get the fire out you will get a fire trail. However an engine is designed to burn off the pylon before it burns off the wing.

As far as an engine severing lines in a wing United 232 proves that can happen.

It’s not Bluster airplanes don’t burst into flames and fall out of the sky because of a mechanical failure. If you have an example of anything I have said that disputes my claims by all means post it.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:03 pm

The question now is was it an accidental shoot down by a jittery air defense crew or was it intentional by some unknown individual? To be honest, I’m leaning toward the latter because I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude, with other aircraft, already being tracked as a hostile target and not just popping up that close to Tehran, etc.
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MadameConcorde
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:04 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
MadameConcorde wrote:
sergegva wrote:


Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


I mean, would you want to be flying in Iranian airspace currently?


I am absolutely not fearful so yes. I would do it if I had to,

though in this case if I was on board LH600 right now (and I have been on board LH600 a number of times) i would go along with the Captain's decision without saying a word.

Captain is boss. I respect them. I am a LH Lifetime Senator. I trust my life to them.
I am sure all those on board will be compensated and taken good care of.

Waiting to hear more.

:eek:
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:05 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
People are putting too much stock in "American/Canadian/whomever security sources"

What's a security source anyway? May well have been some retired person willing to try to get a buck for his comments and not someone with any actual insight into anything

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

That's what many of us were saying yesterday. "security sources..." what does that even mean? It'd be one thing if they said the CIA or Pentagon or something. It was evidence, it was something, but it was hardly strong.

I was skeptical of the shootdown reports today until it was actually confirmed to be said by the organizations themselves.

Surely people can see a huge difference between the vague, ill-defined "sources" of yesterday and the actual confirmations of the sources today by the sources themselves! Regardless of your trust of the Pentagon, the Canada, European countries, etc

This thread is a good crash course on how conspiracy theories form
 
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sergegva
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:08 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
People are putting too much stock in "American/Canadian/whomever security sources"

What's a security source anyway? May well have been some retired person willing to try to get a buck for his comments and not someone with any actual insight into anything


But when you work for Reuters, you just can't call one (or two) retired grandpas, and then write "...acording to five security sources" ! All the more so on such a subject!
 
AirnerdTX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:09 pm

zkojq wrote:
hivue wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How is Ethiopia less advanced than Iran?


I believe Ethiopia had to send their MAX recorders to France for reading.


That has nothing to do with how advanced the country is.

United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....

Draken21fx wrote:
In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.

The person behind the twitter account lives in California (if his profile and the TV news pics are to be trusted), the account was opened only recently and from a quick search I can find no trace of him on social media.

I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.


Good observation. We currently live in the misinformation age.


IMO, "pathetic" would be lying about the cause. Thankfully America never stooped to such childish antics.
 
LHA320
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:09 pm

Polot wrote:
afgeneral wrote:
MadameConcorde wrote:

Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


maybe trying to prevent being shot down by some trigger happy SAM operator?

It could also be with the new information the insurer or owner of the aircraft (if leased) is not comfortable with the aircraft being in Iran, at least with the current level of insurance that LH had on the flight.


D-AIKS, the aircraft in question, is owned by LH. I think the insurer would have decided before the flight, not within. Most likely decided to return the aircraft to base by LH.
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mi6man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:10 pm

With over 170 people on the plane and some time elapsed between incident and ground impact there must have been some onboard videos taken with phones.
If general objects survived as is indicated by the images on the ISNA site then surely there must be some phones scattered about.

One wonders who has collected these devices.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:10 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
The question now is was it an accidental shoot down by a jittery air defense crew or was it intentional by some unknown individual? To be honest, I’m leaning toward the latter because I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude, with other aircraft, already being tracked as a hostile target and not just popping up that close to Tehran, etc.

A state of the art cruiser from the most powerful, most advanced navy to ever sail the Earth did something similar.

People, air defense radars are not like FR24. There is a lot of complexities, a lot of noise, so much that goes into it. We have no idea what they saw, what interference there may have been, etc. I too think it's absurd anyone would see an airliner-like object flying from an obvious civilian airport and shoot it down. I highly doubt that's what they saw, assuming it was shot down.

Read about the American shootdown of the Iranian aircraft. Mistakes were made, but you can see how factors combined into a shootdown
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:10 pm

Polot wrote:
afgeneral wrote:
MadameConcorde wrote:

Hello all,
I saw LH600 to Tehran making a turnaround above Bucharest airports?
Are there any non speculative info as to why they decided on the U turn to FRA?

:eek:

Thanks.


maybe trying to prevent being shot down by some trigger happy SAM operator?

It could also be with the new information the insurer or owner of the aircraft (if leased) is not comfortable with the aircraft being in Iran, at least with the current level of insurance that LH had on the flight.

Or the German government told LH to bring the flight back to FRA because they now know the airspace is not safe/under full control of the Iranians. It could’ve been an accident or an intentional act by some unknown individual(s) with a grudge again the Iranian government.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:11 pm

2175301 wrote:
Apparently there is already some confirmation that the buildings in the missile hit video are from the area; and the NY Times has apparently gotten a high resolution copy of the original and is working to obtain pictures to verify the location of the buildings and structures. This per...


https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1 ... 7972404226

If the NY Times can validate the location... they will tell us. I also expect them to tell us if the buildings and structures do not match up to the claimed location.

Have a great day,


Here's the direct link to the NYT investigation referenced in that thread:

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1215348488164298752
 
D L X
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:13 pm

Canada says their intel says the plane was shot down.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics ... index.html
 
brodeurprice
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:13 pm

Pardon me if these questions have already been answered.

Early on with the missile theory there were questions regarding how remnants of the missile were found at the crash site if the missile(s) were launched/hit kilometres away.

Another thing I find bizarre is this new video surfacing only now when ideas regarding this tragedy are taking on a new direction. The video continues on for some seconds after detonation and it doesn’t seem to show any fire as a result on the aircraft, I wonder how much time rests between the end of this video and the start of others we’ve seen surface.

edit: another question I forgot to include was surrounding the circumstances around which this specific flight was shot down. We know other flights took off before this one without incident, so what was different about this one that caused whoever pulled the trigger to do so?

I don’t mean to doubt the idea that the plane was shot down - it was my initial assumption. That being said, from what I can see, there are still unanswered questions even with this confirmation.
Last edited by brodeurprice on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2790
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:15 pm

brodeurprice wrote:
Pardon me if these questions have already been answered.

Early on with the missile theory there were questions regarding how remnants of the missile were found at the crash site if the missile(s) were launched/hit kilometres away.

Another thing I find bizarre is this new video surfacing only now when ideas regarding this tragedy are taking on a new direction. The video continues on for some seconds after detonation and it doesn’t seem to show any fire as a result on the aircraft, I wonder how much time rests between the end of this video and the start of others we’ve seen surface.

I don’t mean to doubt the idea that the plane was shot down - it was my initial assumption. That being said, from what I can see, there are still unanswered questions even with this confirmation.


If there was two missiles - that may have been the first strike which caused them to start to turn back - the second may have created the fireball.
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 629
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:16 pm

Pentagon is now unofficially saying it was a missile strike.

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-new ... index.html

From CNN - The Ukrainian plane that crashed Wednesday was shot down by two Russian-made surface to air missiles (SA-15), according to a US official familiar with the intelligence.
The US saw Iranian radar signals lock onto the jetliner, before it was shot down. The morning after the incident, US analysts discovered the data but took another day to verify.
 
Morvious
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:36 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:16 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
The question now is was it an accidental shoot down by a jittery air defense crew or was it intentional by some unknown individual? To be honest, I’m leaning toward the latter because I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude, with other aircraft, already being tracked as a hostile target and not just popping up that close to Tehran, etc.


History have shown us that these mistakes were made in the past.
The missile was apparently fired from a SA-15 site. I can’t see no others involed in this but Iran themselves. Location shown in the video does match up the nearby SAM site, posted earlier in the post few pages back.


The planes course went straight for that SAM site, it was delayed so maybe unexpected. I can see why on that night this mistake was made.
have a good day,

HereThen
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:16 pm

JayBCN wrote:
German news channel n-tv reporting that based on US intelligence sources Iranian air defense accidentally shot down PS752. US sattilites monitored missle launch. It’s being reported in their ticker. Iranians deny.


I'm trying to figure out why so many people are so interested in wanting to deny that this was a missile. But some are doing this almost the point that they're no longer even being objective.

We all know it was missile.
 
Arion640
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Why would any one target a departing aircraft from Tehran.


I don't think anyone has suggested that Iran deliberately targeted a civilian airliner. Most likely explanation is a tragic mistake, not unlike IR655.


I agree. Targeting civilians is a whole different kettle of fish.
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 324
Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:18 pm

zkojq wrote:
hivue wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How is Ethiopia less advanced than Iran?


I believe Ethiopia had to send their MAX recorders to France for reading.


That has nothing to do with how advanced the country is.

United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....


You're twisting the facts here. We never formally apologized for it, but we most certainly took responsibility for what had happened and there was never any question that the Vincennes was responsible. We also paid reparations to the Iranian government in the amount of $131M for the incident. If that isn't an admission of guilt, I don't know what is.
 
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Look2theSky
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat May 05, 2018 6:34 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:20 pm

Well.... all I can think of are the innocent people dead now because of other’s actions....whatever happened.
My daughter just came in and told me her friend’s classmate at university was a victim. Classmate is in shock. Two dead from our local university. I can’t even look at the pictures of the deceased. Too upsetting.
Canada is very multicultural. But I did not know we have the largest population of Iranians outside of Iran. Those communities have been deeply affected. We are getting a lot of coverage of the victims and their loved ones. It makes me sick thinking what happened to all these passengers, whatever their nationality. Rest In Peace, to all and condolences to their loved ones. Entire families killed, I heard 20 children dead. They will need great strength in the upcoming months.
I can’t help but think of how words and deeds are easily said and done, but how often it leads to unexpected consequences. I know we have been waiting to confirm why this plane came down, but I think now I can state how frustrating it is to hear that...all is well, no casualties. There are casualties, by the looks of things. Let’s hope it is unintended consequences. The fact Iran had mentioned this past week to remember Lockerbie, then a jet goes down, rattles me....
Thank you for all the informed conversation from professional / experienced members in this thread. So much to think about.
Last edited by Look2theSky on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FlyingSicilian
Posts: 1634
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:53 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:20 pm

zkojq wrote:
hivue wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How is Ethiopia less advanced than Iran?


I believe Ethiopia had to send their MAX recorders to France for reading.


That has nothing to do with how advanced the country is.

United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....

Draken21fx wrote:
In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.

The person behind the twitter account lives in California (if his profile and the TV news pics are to be trusted), the account was opened only recently and from a quick search I can find no trace of him on social media.

I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.


Good observation. We currently live in the misinformation age.


This is incorrect (though tangent to today) information. The USA did admit to shooting down IR655 and even explained the immediate circumstances. Certainly one can debate whether an 'apology' came later, but the USA did have an admission, noted the Vincennes was in an active firefight with five Iranian Navy boats and had issues prior warnings and did trying a warning to the aircraft on guard freq before firing. Your narrative is skewed and missing facts. The USA also paid compensation to the families IIRC.

As for the UIA flight is seems obvious to me with both a pilot and military and int'l security background looking at the current available evidence the aeroplane was shoot down by a SAM. Even the USA and Canadian sources have said likely as an "accident". Some of the current conspiracies, while entertaining, boggle the mind. YMMV
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8414
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:24 pm

I would assume no missile battery operator that close to major airport would be dumb enough (or) trigger happy to shoot down a climbing aircraft. Iran has some serious soul searching in order.
All posts are just opinions.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:24 pm

The cover-up begins...

More and more reports from people with access to the crash site that the wreckage has been bulldozed into a pile, making a truly forensic investigation next to impossible. #PS752

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status ... 3464235008

Image
Last edited by kennethP3 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9065
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:25 pm

FlyingSicilian wrote:
zkojq wrote:
hivue wrote:

I believe Ethiopia had to send their MAX recorders to France for reading.


That has nothing to do with how advanced the country is.

United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....

Draken21fx wrote:
In the times that we live you have to triple check everything.

The person behind the twitter account lives in California (if his profile and the TV news pics are to be trusted), the account was opened only recently and from a quick search I can find no trace of him on social media.

I would take it with a pinch of salt due to all the above. Someone more of an expert than me could do some further digging into it.


Good observation. We currently live in the misinformation age.


This is incorrect (though tangent to today) information. The USA did admit to shooting down IR655 and even explained the immediate circumstances. Certainly one can debate whether an 'apology' came later, but the USA did have an admission, noted the Vincennes was in an active firefight with five Iranian Navy boats and had issues prior warnings and did trying a warning to the aircraft on guard freq before firing. Your narrative is skewed and missing facts. The USA also paid compensation to the families IIRC.

As for the UIA flight is seems obvious to me with both a pilot and military and int'l security background looking at the current available evidence the aeroplane was shoot down by a SAM. Even the USA and Canadian sources have said likely as an "accident". Some of the current conspiracies, while entertaining, boggle the mind. YMMV


The US also released the detailed bridge video from the Vincennes with audio so you could see moment by moment how they f-ed up.
 
MadameConcorde
Posts: 9265
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:08 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:25 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
Polot wrote:
afgeneral wrote:

maybe trying to prevent being shot down by some trigger happy SAM operator?

It could also be with the new information the insurer or owner of the aircraft (if leased) is not comfortable with the aircraft being in Iran, at least with the current level of insurance that LH had on the flight.

Or the German government told LH to bring the flight back to FRA because they now know the airspace is not safe/under full control of the Iranians. It could’ve been an accident or an intentional act by some unknown individual(s) with a grudge again the Iranian government.


Plane is about to land at FRA. Most important is that they are safe.
As a former LH600 user I would have followed the Captain's decision without further questions or comments. All on board will be happy to be back on ffirm ground. Lufthansa will take good care of them, reroute them, whatever is best.

9,050 ft
9,050 ft

:eek:
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
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Ty134A
Posts: 533
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:25 pm

I’ve seen the alleged rocket impact video. Well... the bang was very loud, the rocket sound non existing. There needs to be some sort of rocket engine sound prior to the bang. For somebody who has never heard a SAM, the sound, the noise would catch your attention. Especially when out at night in relative silence.

On the other hand I could witness an uncontained engine failure once, less of a bang, more of a swoosh. Not the same as the sound in the video.

And on one occasion I could witness a very minor explosion on a RR powered 772. Upon engine shut down, one of the fuel valves would not close. Fuel leaked into the hot engine and was heated to vapor. The remaining spin of the engine vented the fuel vapor until BANG. There was a flame and a vortex, the flame about 5m and the vortex fast and well over 20m until it dissolved. That sounded exactly like in the video... minor it was, never want to witness a big one.

So from what I saw, I would not conclude it was a rocket, nor an uncontained engine failure.

What also came to my mind was Tarom YR-BGC, hitting something on the runway. It the PS plane made it into the air after such an event, anything would be possible. Currently for me there is little evidence for any conclusion.

Of course, if one never heared an uncontained engine failure, nor knows how even a small SAM sounds, you’re doomed to believe whatever ist served to you by our trustworthy media, and can’t put anything into perspective.
TU3/5,T20,IL8/6/W/9,I14,YK4/2,AN2/4,A26,A28,A38,A40,A81,SU9,L4T,L11,D1C,M11,M80/2/7,
AB4/6,318-321,313,332/3,342/3/5/6,712,703,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,741/L/2/3/4,752/3,763,
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adamant365
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:06 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:28 pm

brodeurprice wrote:
Pardon me if these questions have already been answered.

Early on with the missile theory there were questions regarding how remnants of the missile were found at the crash site if the missile(s) were launched/hit kilometres away.

Another thing I find bizarre is this new video surfacing only now when ideas regarding this tragedy are taking on a new direction. The video continues on for some seconds after detonation and it doesn’t seem to show any fire as a result on the aircraft, I wonder how much time rests between the end of this video and the start of others we’ve seen surface.

edit: another question I forgot to include was surrounding the circumstances around which this specific flight was shot down. We know other flights took off before this one without incident, so what was different about this one that caused whoever pulled the trigger to do so?

I don’t mean to doubt the idea that the plane was shot down - it was my initial assumption. That being said, from what I can see, there are still unanswered questions even with this confirmation.


It was never confirmed that missile fragments were found at the crash site. One comment I read (albeit on Twitter) was that the missile guidance head was actually found near an apartment in Parand. This would make sense considering the locations of the nearby air defense and the point of loss of ADS-B signal. There was never any photographic proof of the missile fragment lying near the crash site.

If you watch the supposed missile impact video, you see a glow slightly after the explosion that subsides by the end of the video. It's possible the impact of the missile fragments ruptured fuel lines, etc. inside the engine burning off the fuel/oil, etc. contained within the engine, but that fire somewhat self-extinguished. It was only after some time that as more and more fluid leaked, structures continued to break down, etc., that the remaining fuel found an ignition source and resulted in the blaze we see in the crash video. A fairly large aircraft such as a 737 wouldn't immediately blow up when "hit" by a SAM. In this case, it managed to stay airborne for approximately 1-3 minutes.

I don't know about your other question. That's going to be for authorities to figure out. Was there some sort of jamming occurring that prevented the SAM controller form seeing it was a commercial airliner? Was there miscommunication between ATC and the air defense folks regarding aircraft movements? Too many factors to speculate on there.
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:32 pm

Ty134A wrote:
I’ve seen the alleged rocket impact video. Well... the bang was very loud, the rocket sound non existing. There needs to be some sort of rocket engine sound prior to the bang. For somebody who has never heard a SAM, the sound, the noise would catch your attention. Especially when out at night in relative silence.

On the other hand I could witness an uncontained engine failure once, less of a bang, more of a swoosh. Not the same as the sound in the video.

And on one occasion I could witness a very minor explosion on a RR powered 772. Upon engine shut down, one of the fuel valves would not close. Fuel leaked into the hot engine and was heated to vapor. The remaining spin of the engine vented the fuel vapor until BANG. There was a flame and a vortex, the flame about 5m and the vortex fast and well over 20m until it dissolved. That sounded exactly like in the video... minor it was, never want to witness a big one.

So from what I saw, I would not conclude it was a rocket, nor an uncontained engine failure.

What also came to my mind was Tarom YR-BGC, hitting something on the runway. It the PS plane made it into the air after such an event, anything would be possible. Currently for me there is little evidence for any conclusion.

Of course, if one never heared an uncontained engine failure, nor knows how even a small SAM sounds, you’re doomed to believe whatever ist served to you by our trustworthy media, and can’t put anything into perspective.


are you blind by any chance? you seem to be basing your analysis exclusively on the audio

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