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bmartino99
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 7:57 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:32 pm

Karlsands wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Interested wrote:
Terrorist on board has weapons to take out pilots and bomb(s)/ suicide vest to detonate etc

Would explain fireball and no communication from pilots

Or bomb explodes and takes pilots out at same time as starting fire in plane
No. Bomb that kills pilots is too far away to puncture the tanks. The bomb that punctures the tanks does not kill the pilots. Jet fuel is pretty heavy stuff, it is not gasoline. For it to produce fireball you have to mix it with air, that means that the explosion needs enough force to vaporize the fuel. We are talking about a bomb of size one could bring on board of the plane. Yes, a 10kg device in cargo hold could probably vaporize both the fuel and the pilots, but this is not your typical airliner bomb.

Fact is, even fatal bombing of the plane is very unlikely to produce a fireball, because terrorists want the bomb to be small to be easily hidden/smuggled, and one does not need a fireball to totally destroy a plane. Small bomb that causes just enough structural damage to sever control lines or make large enough hole in the fuselage.

You are stubbornly referring to explosions as seen in movies. Real life explosions are NOT like that.To produce movie effects, large amounts of fuel (e.g. gasoline in plastic bags) are placed next to small charges, which are enough to destroy the bags and spray the fuel around. This then gives a "movie fireball".

But in reality, bomb detonations basically never produce fireball, because detonation is completely different process from burning. All energy that would go into fireball heat and light would be wasted energy, as it would not contribute to the destructive force of the detonation.

So, the only way that explosive device in the cabin/cargo hold would produce fireball is if it is either well placed to target fuel tanks, or it is large enough that its shockwave or shrapnels penetrate fuel tank, with enough energy to disperse enough fuel for a fireball. "large enough" and "filled with shrapnel" is something even the worst airport security in the world would detect if you try to take it on the plane.

Missile, on the other hand, has all the ingredients: sufficient charge (much more than what anyone could hope to smuggle on board) and shrapnel.

Gasoline and jet fuel only weigh .8 pounds different


He's talking in the sense that jet fuel requires much more energy to burn than gasoline. Gasoline has a much higher vapor pressure than Jet A. Gasoline is much more volatile than Jet A. Here's a link for further reading on the characteristics of jet fuel if you're interested.
https://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/ar98-26.pdf
 
VS11
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:33 pm

CNN now reports that Iran has invited Boeing to the investigation

Iran says it has invited the US to be present during crash investigation, report says
https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-new ... index.html
 
TObound
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:33 pm

Canada says the plane was likely shot down.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/champa ... -1.5420398

Just so people understand. This is absolutely devastating in Canada. Victims were from so many different parts of the country that a lot of communities have or know someone who was killed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/63-canad ... -1.5418892
 
MadameConcorde
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:33 pm

ISNA pictures. They are quite telling.
Not sure this batch was already posted on the thread or not.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__ ... GNgLQLwfes
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:35 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:

I’m a professional pilot I know what causes aircraft to fall to the earth in a ball of fire......and it isn’t an overheated engine, it isn’t an in a un-contained engine failure.

How many Un-contained engine failures have we seen just in the last 2 years? Non have punctured the fuel tank and blew up an airliner.

Engine fires can be extinguished by the pilot. And in no case should an engine malfunction cause an airliner to fall 8,000 feet straight down in a ball of flames, I don’t care if both pilots on the flight deck were the worst at the airline.

The last plane I can think of that fell out of the sky in a ball of flames was TWA 800.....jury is still out on whether or not that was a missile or the empty center fuel tank.

Also there were pictures that showed shrapnel damage, people who were military can identify that.

So you may not know anything as a member of the public but there are members here that do know a lot.

As a pilot, you should also be aware that being circumspect and getting the facts straight are important. Uncontained engine failure can rupture fuel lines and tanks and can result in fires and even 'fireballs', not to mention cause catastrophic damage to flight controls. That is why they are categorised 'Catastrophic' and the boffin types do everything possible to protect and mitigate against them. Engine fires can be extinguished providing the suppression system is working and effective that can of course be disrupted by a failure in the first place. Engine fire can result in a further uncontained disk failure before the fire is extinguished or spread if not extinguished.

Any of these scenarios could result in the a/c failing out of the sky from 8kft, but this particular UIA event did not. Even if the event was engine related and not missile, as now seems most likely, the a/c flew on for several minutes with some apparent effort at crash landing.

There is only one picture that could show shrapnel damage, in my view. The cabin section cited clearly isn't showing such and the vertical stabiliser damage is far too large to be missile shrapnel and does not show on the port side leaving only the (what looks like) flap section and it is not clear that is not damage from uncontained engine failure or other impact damage. Does not mean it was not a missile, but these can not be used as evidence that it was.

More humility and consideration of the available information and less bluster please.


When you pull the fire handle you cut the fuel to the engine so a severed fuel line would not keep burning. Sure all fire suppression could fail but not likely.

Give me one example of a un-contained engine failure rupturing a fuel tank and exploding. Jet fuel doesn’t explode, it burns. IF the engine is on fire AND the fuel tank is leaking fuel AND you can’t get the fire out you will get a fire trail. However an engine is designed to burn off the pylon before it burns off the wing.

As far as an engine severing lines in a wing United 232 proves that can happen.

It’s not Bluster airplanes don’t burst into flames and fall out of the sky because of a mechanical failure. If you have an example of anything I have said that disputes my claims by all means post it.

'ball of fire' were your words, I just put 'fireball' in quotes to humour the use of language.

Disruption of fuel lines/fuel tanks and consequential fire are recognised potential failure modes. No need to chase records. Similar is no doubt possible due to proximity fused SAMs because they have the same potential effect as uncontained engine failure.

Ray
 
brodeurprice
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:36 pm

adamant365 wrote:
brodeurprice wrote:
Pardon me if these questions have already been answered.

Early on with the missile theory there were questions regarding how remnants of the missile were found at the crash site if the missile(s) were launched/hit kilometres away.

Another thing I find bizarre is this new video surfacing only now when ideas regarding this tragedy are taking on a new direction. The video continues on for some seconds after detonation and it doesn’t seem to show any fire as a result on the aircraft, I wonder how much time rests between the end of this video and the start of others we’ve seen surface.

edit: another question I forgot to include was surrounding the circumstances around which this specific flight was shot down. We know other flights took off before this one without incident, so what was different about this one that caused whoever pulled the trigger to do so?

I don’t mean to doubt the idea that the plane was shot down - it was my initial assumption. That being said, from what I can see, there are still unanswered questions even with this confirmation.


It was never confirmed that missile fragments were found at the crash site. One comment I read (albeit on Twitter) was that the missile guidance head was actually found near an apartment in Parand. This would make sense considering the locations of the nearby air defense and the point of loss of ADS-B signal. There was never any photographic proof of the missile fragment lying near the crash site.

If you watch the supposed missile impact video, you see a glow slightly after the explosion that subsides by the end of the video. It's possible the impact of the missile fragments ruptured fuel lines, etc. inside the engine burning off the fuel/oil, etc. contained within the engine, but that fire somewhat self-extinguished. It was only after some time that as more and more fluid leaked, structures continued to break down, etc., that the remaining fuel found an ignition source and resulted in the blaze we see in the crash video. A fairly large aircraft such as a 737 wouldn't immediately blow up when "hit" by a SAM. In this case, it managed to stay airborne for approximately 1-3 minutes.

I don't know about your other question. That's going to be for authorities to figure out. Was there some sort of jamming occurring that prevented the SAM controller form seeing it was a commercial airliner? Was there miscommunication between ATC and the air defense folks regarding aircraft movements? Too many factors to speculate on there.


Thank you for your insight !

In any case this is a grave tragedy first and foremost. Full answers won’t come for some time, if ever.
 
admdavid
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:40 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
So let's suppose for a minute it's a missile. How do you confirm that based on wreckage?


There should be explosives residue on the surfaces.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:42 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
ISNA pictures. They are quite telling.
Not sure this batch was already posted on the thread or not.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__ ... GNgLQLwfes


in the first photo you can see a human organ. Very sad and presumed terrible actions by the Iranians.
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OEMInsider
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:44 pm

A missile strike was always a possibility for this, but we needed evidence. I'm not convinced by the head of the missile in a ditch - nothing to show where that picture was taken, and why would it be with the wreckage when the plane flew on for several miles? Anyway, I did some sleuthing to follow up on the excellent posts by michi - showing a sensible flight path after to loss of ADSB data and then from Viper911 - who somehow found the coordinates of the video showing the missile hitting the aircraft.

I took this info and put it into Google Earth to see how it all lined up. The answer is - it seems to completely line up.

The angle the missile approaches from is roughly correct.
The time between the flash and the bang is roughly correct.
The location relative to the loss of ADSB is roughly correct.

Very sad, and very similar to IR655 :(.
 
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enilria
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:44 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
enilria wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

Speaking of conspiracy theories, that IS a conspiracy theory.

If I understand your reasoning correctly, you believe it's more likely the U.S. intentionally hide / spoofed the transponder identity of the 737, intentionally killing nearly 200 civilians - than Iranian SAM system crews making a terrible mistake?

I don't think that is credible.

Transponder spoofing isn't new or technically difficult.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-b ... gets-25678.


I understand that. I just don't think it's the more likely thing to happen here. I think this whole thing was accidental and tragic. I don't think the US (or anyone else) spoofed the transponder ID on a civilian airliner. That would be like intentionally killing civilians. I don't think that happened.

I believed that the first time it happened with MH17. Twice is not a coincidence.
 
Iluvtofly
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:45 pm

It seems that it has been confirmed that the aircraft was hit by 2 missiles.
Our Prime Minister held a press conference in Canada a few minutes ago.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/intelli ... -1.4759850
Flown - B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 A300 310 319 320 321 330 340 Concorde BAC111 TU154 VC10 F27 F28 F100 DC3 DC8 DC9 DC10 L1011 L188 DHC6 DHC7 DHC8 E135 E145 HS748 MD11 ST27 CV580 S340 ATR42 J31
 
adamant365
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
MadameConcorde wrote:
ISNA pictures. They are quite telling.
Not sure this batch was already posted on the thread or not.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__ ... GNgLQLwfes


in the first photo you can see a human organ. Very sad and presumed terrible actions by the Iranians.

Many of those photos are quite graphic. I've seen a lot of really ugly things before both in photo/video and real life, but I still find these images very disturbing.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 pm

Odd question I know but where are the seats? Ive not seen any on any of the photos. I imagine the seatbelt sign is still on and everyone still strapped in. Perhaps the authorities removed them from their seats and piled the seats up someplace?
 
Viper911
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:49 pm

Ty134A wrote:
I’ve seen the alleged rocket impact video. Well... the bang was very loud, the rocket sound non existing. There needs to be some sort of rocket engine sound prior to the bang. For somebody who has never heard a SAM, the sound, the noise would catch your attention. Especially when out at night in relative silence.

On the other hand I could witness an uncontained engine failure once, less of a bang, more of a swoosh. Not the same as the sound in the video.

And on one occasion I could witness a very minor explosion on a RR powered 772. Upon engine shut down, one of the fuel valves would not close. Fuel leaked into the hot engine and was heated to vapor. The remaining spin of the engine vented the fuel vapor until BANG. There was a flame and a vortex, the flame about 5m and the vortex fast and well over 20m until it dissolved. That sounded exactly like in the video... minor it was, never want to witness a big one.

So from what I saw, I would not conclude it was a rocket, nor an uncontained engine failure.

What also came to my mind was Tarom YR-BGC, hitting something on the runway. It the PS plane made it into the air after such an event, anything would be possible. Currently for me there is little evidence for any conclusion.

Of course, if one never heared an uncontained engine failure, nor knows how even a small SAM sounds, you’re doomed to believe whatever ist served to you by our trustworthy media, and can’t put anything into perspective.



Back in 2014 i was living 800 meters away from an active Iron Dome launch system in israel, during launch the sound indeed is very loud somewhat similar to a jet engine passing nearby, but once the rocket gains altitude and gains distance, you can barely hear it, the only thing you observe is a light going away from you, furthermore the relative angle between the observer and the noise source is important as well. My assumption about this video is that the alleged missile was never launched near the observer and it was at a considerable altitude when it entered the frame, couple it with low quality camera and mic and you will not hear it.

Edit: After rewatching the video again, you can clearly hear the noise level difference before the explosion sound and after.

Viper911
Last edited by Viper911 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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GE90man
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:50 pm

sevenair wrote:
Odd question I know but where are the seats? Ive not seen any on any of the photos. I imagine the seatbelt sign is still on and everyone still strapped in. Perhaps the authorities removed them from their seats and piled the seats up someplace?

Likely disintegrated on impact
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:50 pm

sevenair wrote:
Odd question I know but where are the seats? Ive not seen any on any of the photos. I imagine the seatbelt sign is still on and everyone still strapped in. Perhaps the authorities removed them from their seats and piled the seats up someplace?


The fabric from the seats burned up and the seat frames are probably just scrap metal now.
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adamant365
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:52 pm

sevenair wrote:
Odd question I know but where are the seats? Ive not seen any on any of the photos. I imagine the seatbelt sign is still on and everyone still strapped in. Perhaps the authorities removed them from their seats and piled the seats up someplace?

I won't get too graphic into the physics of it, but in an impact like that there isn't much left that would be recognizable save for the largest and heaviest aircraft structures like engines, landing gear, wing box, etc.
 
TObound
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:52 pm

OEMInsider wrote:
A missile strike was always a possibility for this, but we needed evidence. I'm not convinced by the head of the missile in a ditch - nothing to show where that picture was taken, and why would it be with the wreckage when the plane flew on for several miles? Anyway, I did some sleuthing to follow up on the excellent posts by michi - showing a sensible flight path after to loss of ADSB data and then from Viper911 - who somehow found the coordinates of the video showing the missile hitting the aircraft.

I took this info and put it into Google Earth to see how it all lined up. The answer is - it seems to completely line up.

The angle the missile approaches from is roughly correct.
The time between the flash and the bang is roughly correct.
The location relative to the loss of ADSB is roughly correct.

Very sad, and very similar to IR655 :(.


Guessing you didn't see the video:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... ssile.html
 
miegapele
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:56 pm

I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:56 pm

Actually you guys are right. I've looked at one of the pictures and I can see what looks to be the base legs of a seat with the stopper bar for under seat bags stowage.

I keep having to remind myself of how high energy this impact was. I know on MH17 a lot of intact seats were among the wreckage but that wasn't quite such a high energy impact.
 
GSOflyerDL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:56 pm

The following is my opinion, so someone with greater knowledge please chime in or correct me if I am wrong:

It seems to me that the regime in Iran keeps the memory of Iran Air 655 fresh, and that it is used to gin up their portrayal of victimization/martrydom at the hands of the US. I recall hearing a commentator on PBS speak to this last year. Rouhani's tweet (https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/121423660819668) on 01/06/20 in response to Trump's bluster (hit 52 cultural sites in memory of the 52 hostages from the '80s hostage crisis) underscores this. I'm not here to argue as to the veracity of this mentality.

With clarity and consensus emerging that a mirror-image situation has transpired, now at the hands of Iran, I'm very curious to see how it this will affect the attitude of the domestic population, who may have already been leery of their regime. In short, they appear to be guilty of the very same thing they railed for decades on the US for doing.
DL Diamond Medallion 360
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:57 pm

Those ISNA photos make it pretty clear that aircraft impacted with pretty good forward speed, at a fairly shallow angle, and plowed through at least two very, very solid walls.

It also shows clearly the aftermath of that kind of impact ... there simply isn't much left that's intact ... whether it's people, cabin fittings, aircraft structures ...

There is simply nothing left but pieces of twisted, shredded ... stuff.

The seats and stuff are all there ... it's just all over the place like every other part of the plane.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:58 pm

miegapele wrote:
I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.


When the Russians give it (or sell it real cheap) to you, you don't ask questions ... you just say "Thank You" and put it into service ...
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:00 pm

MadameConcorde wrote:
ISNA pictures. They are quite telling.
Not sure this batch was already posted on the thread or not.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__ ... GNgLQLwfes



One photo has presumably wedding photos on the ground. The woman in the photos is blurred out but not the man. Is that protecting a victim or is that a local cultural thing to do when taking pictures of pictures?
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:01 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.
 
OEMInsider
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:02 pm

TObound wrote:
OEMInsider wrote:
A missile strike was always a possibility for this, but we needed evidence. I'm not convinced by the head of the missile in a ditch - nothing to show where that picture was taken, and why would it be with the wreckage when the plane flew on for several miles? Anyway, I did some sleuthing to follow up on the excellent posts by michi - showing a sensible flight path after to loss of ADSB data and then from Viper911 - who somehow found the coordinates of the video showing the missile hitting the aircraft.

I took this info and put it into Google Earth to see how it all lined up. The answer is - it seems to completely line up.

The angle the missile approaches from is roughly correct.
The time between the flash and the bang is roughly correct.
The location relative to the loss of ADSB is roughly correct.

Very sad, and very similar to IR655 :(.


Guessing you didn't see the video:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... ssile.html

Yes I did - that's the video I used in my analysis. Follow this link --> https://imgur.com/a/V1SlDty

Should have been clearer - at first I wasn't sure whether it was a missile, but now I am sure.
 
adamant365
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:02 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
miegapele wrote:
I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.

There are multiple types of radar. Usually just observation (search) radars may be used all the time. They have large coverage but can't necessarily track a target for missile guidance. To track a target, a tracking radar would be used. These only activate when preparing for a launch. I'm assuming what the Pentagon refers to when they mention the radar is the tracking radar. The SA-15 has a type of tracking radar that would be easily distinguished from, say, an SA-6 or SA-10. The CBS report specifically mentions "SA-15" so I'm guessing the Pentagon knew exactly the radar that activated.
Last edited by adamant365 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Taeks
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:02 pm

New York Times has verified the video of what appears to be plane being shot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... e=Homepage
 
2175301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:04 pm

zkojq wrote:
United787 wrote:
Lastly, I believe the US immediately claimed responsibility for IR655, no? Even if the circumstances around the shoot down were hotly contested (and still are today to some sort), did the US ever deny that they shot the plane down?


Nope, not at all. Even the US statement many years afterwards doesn't include an admission nor an apology.

"...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."

Completely pathetic....


President Regan issued a statement the very next day admitting that the US Navy mistakenly shot down IR Flight 655.

So, yes, the USA quickly admitted that they did it.

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/04/worl ... ement.html
(you may have to create a "free" account to read it).

Given the war situation and the fact that Flight 655 repeatedly ignored request to identify themselves, they have never apologized for the incident. If you get off of wiki and read the various independent analysis of the events my conclusion is that there were faults on both sides.

Have a great day,
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm

[quote="smokeybandit"]

One photo has presumably wedding photos on the ground. The woman in the photos is blurred out but not the man. Is that protecting a victim or is that a local cultural thing to do when taking pictures of pictures?[/quote]
Cultural, she wasn't appropriately dressed I believe.



If true, Iran is doing the best thing they can do by inviting Boeing. Shows they're above the politics and the better country, in a small way.

But they really need to admit the shoot down if it is the case. They aren't gonna get away with it forever, if they did indeed shoot it down. Maybe the air defense soldiers weren't forthcoming right away but Iran would know by now if they shot it down. Show "the great Satan" how a country should own an accidental shootdown! Don't ineffectively try and hide the inevitable truth...
Last edited by DeltaMD90 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm

miegapele wrote:
I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.

Obviously they have lots of ground based equipment. But those locations would be targeted in the event of an attack. You'd also have mobile AA to supplement fixed emplacements.

Mobile AA also give individual operators much more freedom, increasing the likelihood of a mistake like this
Last edited by kennethP3 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Iluvtofly
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm

Amazed at how close it was to hitting some pretty significant buildings ..... the death toll could have been much much higher.
Flown - B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 A300 310 319 320 321 330 340 Concorde BAC111 TU154 VC10 F27 F28 F100 DC3 DC8 DC9 DC10 L1011 L188 DHC6 DHC7 DHC8 E135 E145 HS748 MD11 ST27 CV580 S340 ATR42 J31
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 353
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm

Taeks wrote:
New York Times has verified the video of what appears to be plane being shot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... e=Homepage


that's behind a paywall, but CNN currently showing a purported video of plane being hit, currently unverified, I assume its the same video!
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm

miegapele wrote:
I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.


ideally the enemy should not know where you SAM command center, launchers, targeting radars are because they are much easier to be targeted and destroyed that way

a fixed air defense system is not a good idea

the moment you turn the targeting radar on you give out your location

you keep moving components around (preferably at night to avoid satellites) to maintain the element of surprise

also if you are protecting a specific target and the target gets destroyed or priorities change you need to be able to move the system around to defend different areas

you may also want to move SAM to a different area depending from which direction a possible threat is likely to come from
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 592
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:07 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.

I think the circumstances are somewhat different, but it’s possible that just like that event, it was the fatal mistake of a jittery, inept crew that led to this tragedy. It’s also possible that it was an intentional act like I mentioned previously.
Last edited by dampfnudel on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
arfbool
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:10 pm

michi wrote:
The standard departure out of IKA when flying towards UKBB would be straight out. Using the FR24 Data it looks like the aircraft did an early turn. As it is not known so far that there has been communication between the aircraft and the controllers, one might think that the crew did the turn for some unknown reason.

This might be an indication that the problem arose before the ADS-B data stopped.



I think the turn to 310 deg was planned. You can review the data from PS 752 the day before, and the day before that and see the same thing.
 
gloom
Posts: 476
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:13 pm

miegapele wrote:
I have one question. Given this was deeply in Iran territory, why would Iran military use some mobile radar and such (according to news, US intelligence detected radar turning on). Shouldn't they have some stationary radars around the country and these would be active all the time. Why use this mobile stuff? And also close to the capital which should definitely be protected by lots of ground based equipment.


This is SA15 set. It's designed to be like that, not an aerial defense, but point defense. Actually, the Russians made it to complete large aerial sets, which are pretty useless against small-low targets. SA15 was designed to intercept not only planes and helos, but missiles and even free falling bombs. That's why it classifies and targets automatically, and the human role there is basically "go-no go" decision. Complete process from detection to launch is claimed to be as short as 5-7 seconds. In the worst case.
That's also the reason why initial reports on possible shutdown reported "blink" from radar. It targets for a few seconds to complete launch, and then gets dark again (passive) to reduce counterattack possibility.

Cheers,
Adam

PS. That's why it's mobile. You don't have enough missiles to defend anything you'd want to. Moving the set around fools enemy (they have to assume it's somewhere, so perhaps where I want to attack), and allows to switch priorities on your defense depending on your needs.
Last edited by gloom on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SEA
Posts: 297
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:21 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:14 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.

I think the circumstances are somewhat different, but it’s possible that just like that event, it was the fatal mistake of a jittery, inept crew that led to this tragedy. It’s also possible that it was an intentional act like I mentioned previously.


Why would Iran shoot down an airliner full of its own citizens intentionally?
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:14 pm

Can we knock it off with the transponder spoofing? Roger, it's possible, but it's also possible the air defense soldier that shot down the aircraft was a CIA or Mossad agent trying to make Iran look bad. There are a billion possible theories with no support for or against

We got it, you think it could have happened. Please let us know when any evidence of this pops up, no one is denying it *could have* happened
 
chicawgo
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:16 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:

One photo has presumably wedding photos on the ground. The woman in the photos is blurred out but not the man. Is that protecting a victim or is that a local cultural thing to do when taking pictures of pictures?

Cultural, she wasn't appropriately dressed I believe.



If true, Iran is doing the best thing they can do by inviting Boeing. Shows they're above the politics and the better country, in a small way.

But they really need to admit the shoot down if it is the case. They aren't gonna get away with it forever, if they did indeed shoot it down. Maybe the air defense soldiers weren't forthcoming right away but Iran would know by now if they shot it down. Show "the great Satan" how a country should own an accidental shootdown! Don't ineffectively try and hide the inevitable truth...


And what about the reports they're currently bulldozing the crash scene?
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:18 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Taeks wrote:
New York Times has verified the video of what appears to be plane being shot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... e=Homepage


that's behind a paywall, but CNN currently showing a purported video of plane being hit, currently unverified, I assume its the same video!


link to purported video on cnn, not behind paywall.

https://cnn.it/37UYB5l
 
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par13del
Posts: 10350
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:18 pm

Looking at the twitter pictures, it seem obvious that the person or persons taking those pictures is authorized to be in the area.
I admit that those of us not there appreciate seeing these and being informed, but anyone concerned that these are being released by authorized individuals onto a public channel?
 
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DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:21 pm

chicawgo wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:

One photo has presumably wedding photos on the ground. The woman in the photos is blurred out but not the man. Is that protecting a victim or is that a local cultural thing to do when taking pictures of pictures?

Cultural, she wasn't appropriately dressed I believe.



If true, Iran is doing the best thing they can do by inviting Boeing. Shows they're above the politics and the better country, in a small way.

But they really need to admit the shoot down if it is the case. They aren't gonna get away with it forever, if they did indeed shoot it down. Maybe the air defense soldiers weren't forthcoming right away but Iran would know by now if they shot it down. Show "the great Satan" how a country should own an accidental shootdown! Don't ineffectively try and hide the inevitable truth...


And what about the reports they're currently bulldozing the crash scene?

Well, obviously I'd advise against that too. I'm not defending their crappy regime. You'd think, assuming they did shoot it down, they'd realize not even their propaganda machine could hide the truth and they would try and do damage control. Show us how to handle an accidental shootdown.

Assuming they did shoot it down and they don't at least admit to it, they'd be the biggest hypocrites ever and should never blab about IR655 again
 
N212R
Posts: 331
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:22 pm

captainmeeerkat wrote:
How is it possible that so many intelligence services were sure 12 hours ago that there was nothing untoward with this incident and now we have the exact opposite? Surely they are looking at the same data as before


Because, as George Carlin said, "it's a big Club...and you ain't in it"!
 
miegapele
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:24 pm

afgeneral wrote:
a fixed air defense system is not a good idea the moment you turn the targeting radar on you give out your location

Maybe that's true, but for example US has quite big JSS system with lots of ground based radars. No doubt other countries also have something similar. After all you need to monitor your airspace all the time. I thought Iran would have something similar too.
 
ranold76
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:27 pm

I applaud the Iranian citizens who are getting these pictures and videos out on the internet for the world to see. I would think there is potential major duress hanging overhead in doing so.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:27 pm

ranold76 wrote:
I applaud the Iranian citizens who are getting these pictures and videos out on the internet for the world to see. I would think there is potential major duress hanging overhead in doing so.


I was thinking exactly the same thing.
Huge cojones to do those things in that regime.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:29 pm

OEMInsider wrote:
A missile strike was always a possibility for this, but we needed evidence. I'm not convinced by the head of the missile in a ditch - nothing to show where that picture was taken, .


People, just read the news! Justin Trudeau confirmed that western intelligence services now think that iranians shot down the airplane by mistake. It is all over mainstream media, so no need to speculate.
Additionally, US intelligence services confirmed that:

- they knew about it yesterday, but needed to verify by confirming with other sources of data
- they detected launch of 2 SA-15 missiles at the time the airplane crashed
- they detected radar of air defense system being switched on for a short time
- they confirmed (and this is really a big deal) that indeed iranians shot down the plane by mistake by analyzing intercepted communications inside Iran.

Here is ONE of the reports:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/09/poli ... index.html

The facts now being reported also explain pretty strange behaviour by Trump, waay too subdued, almost defending Iranians ("mistake"). he was certainly informed immediately when indices were there, and that's probably why there was no retaliatory strike, as US was probably confident that a world of hurt is coming to Iran regime now. They bombed the sand in the desert and basically their own airliner (pax were mainly iranian). Intercepted communications also explain why there was no damage in iranian strike - basically US was listening to their communications and it pack all the stuff away and people into shelters way before the missiles were in range.
Last edited by xmp125a on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11785
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:29 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Taeks wrote:
New York Times has verified the video of what appears to be plane being shot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vide ... e=Homepage


that's behind a paywall, but CNN currently showing a purported video of plane being hit, currently unverified, I assume its the same video!


link to purported video on cnn, not behind paywall.

https://cnn.it/37UYB5l


Thanks for that. It is still hard to tell what happened. I would imagine Iran and Ukraine Airlines will be interested in getting the black box's to accredited data retrieval sites to find out what occured on the plane itself.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
dara88
Posts: 112
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 pm

If a missile hits a plane with a full tank, don't you think that the plane would explode immediately? Or become a fireball? In that video no such thing is visible. Also, why should anyone record a video of the dark black sky without any purpose? In my opinion, it's definitely fake.

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