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ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:36 am

I'd echo that I haven't seen anyone proposing that if it is a shootdown that it was knowingly done on a civilian airliner. Shit happens. Unfortunately when dealing with stuff designed to destroy any mistake can quickly result in deaths. :(
 
Varsity1
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:38 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Yeah, Iran totally decided to purposely shoot down a random *Ukrainian* aircraft with no Americans/mostly Iranians on board out of their capital airport. I wouldn't say that's tinfoil hat worthy, it's just plain stupid

Dara, stay safe. Never wanted to get you in trouble, don't say anything that will jeopardize you. And yes, many of us Americans are critical towards your government, but also towards ours. We know your people are mostly like us and just want peace, not some jihadist idiots. Always remember that. Won't lie though, many Americans are not your friend, as I'm sure many Iranians hate Americans (the people not just the government)

And sorry for your loss



Pretty ignorant statement, and you don't speak for me.

I've never heard an American say "I hate the Iranians".

It's a conflict of power between old men. Not us.
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flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:42 am

Great work michi, the maps are very helpful!

michi wrote:
The standard departure out of IKA when flying towards UKBB would be straight out. Using the FR24 Data it looks like the aircraft did an early turn. As it is not known so far that there has been communication between the aircraft and the controllers, one might think that the crew did the turn for some unknown reason. This might be an indication that the problem arose before the ADS-B data stopped.

In case of an engine failure an aircraft might leave the track because of thrust asymmetry. Normally this departure of the proposed track should be counteracted by the pilots. Nevertheless they might have been startled and turned a bit without realising it. Blue is the SID and green the FR24 Data. Leaving the departure track to the north might indicate thrust loss on ENG 2 (right engine).

Your theory is an interesting one, but I have some counter-arguments against it.

I don't think the standard departure to UKBB is straight out (do you have some sources for it?). I looked at all the Flightaware past logs for the same flight AUI752 back to Dec 30. Most of them (Jan 4, Jan 3, Jan 2, Jan 1) turned from 289° to 313° around 2 mins after takeoff, 7000-8000 ft, exactly like the doomed flight on Jan 8. Other times (Jan 6, Dec 30), it still made the same turn, but a little later like 3-5 mins, 11000-12000 ft.

I do not think there was any issue before the ADS-B transponder cut out, especially an engine failure. The reason is that even up to the last granular ADS-B data point 02:44:58 UTC (06:14:58 LT), there was no change in climb rate (see graph below). If there was thrust asymmetry due to one of the engines, the climb rate would have decreased.

So I think the turn was planned and normal. It should not have raised any alarms.

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Revelation
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:44 am

https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/statu ... 3648135168 says that NTSB has designated an official representative to the investigation. It's got a bit more jargon to explain what's going on, but in short, NTSB is as of now a participant in the investigation and is sending a representative.
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kc135topboom
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:46 am

Everything was normal, including communications with ATC until she reached 7,650' and 276 knots. Then nothing but a fireball descending towards Earth. The airplane just came out of a scheduled maintenance check (B Check?).

There were 176 people aboard, including 9 Ukrainian crew, 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, and the rest from throughout the EU including 2 Ukrainians as passengers..

The US and Canada both think if it was shot down, it would have been by a Tor-M1 AAW SAM system (NATO designation SA-15 Gauntlet). Iran bought at least 29 Tor systems from Russia in 2007.
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:48 am

kc135topboom wrote:
Everything was normal, including communications with ATC until she reached 7,650' and 276 knots. Then nothing but a fireball descending towards Earth. The airplane just came out of a scheduled maintenance check (B Check?).

There were 176 people aboard, including 9 Ukrainian crew, 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, and the rest from throughout the EU including 2 Ukrainians as passengers..

The US and Canada both think if it was shot down, it would have been by a Tor-M1 AAW SAM system (NATO designation SA-15 Gauntlet). Iran bought at least 29 Tor systems from Russia in 2007.


Scary looking vehicles....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9Y5DT4oPpc
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:58 am

Varsity1 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Yeah, Iran totally decided to purposely shoot down a random *Ukrainian* aircraft with no Americans/mostly Iranians on board out of their capital airport. I wouldn't say that's tinfoil hat worthy, it's just plain stupid

Dara, stay safe. Never wanted to get you in trouble, don't say anything that will jeopardize you. And yes, many of us Americans are critical towards your government, but also towards ours. We know your people are mostly like us and just want peace, not some jihadist idiots. Always remember that. Won't lie though, many Americans are not your friend, as I'm sure many Iranians hate Americans (the people not just the government)

And sorry for your loss



Pretty ignorant statement, and you don't speak for me.

I've never heard an American say "I hate the Iranians".

It's a conflict of power between old men. Not us.

So actually there were 2 separate thoughts, maybe I should have made a divider. Pretend the 2 paragraphs were different posts. Never meant you or anyone here hates Iranians. I meant some Americans in general (yes, I've heard plenty of ignorant hate of Iranians in real life.) So sorry you mistook that as directed to you.

But... I do stand by the notion is dumb to believe Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner with no Americans on in taking off of Tehran intentionally. Yeah there was a tweet referencing IR655. Ok so what. Maybe if it was an American aircraft or filled with Americans or in America. But this Ukrainian 737, intentionally? Absurd.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:04 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Yeah, Iran totally decided to purposely shoot down a random *Ukrainian* aircraft with no Americans/mostly Iranians on board out of their capital airport. I wouldn't say that's tinfoil hat worthy, it's just plain stupid

Dara, stay safe. Never wanted to get you in trouble, don't say anything that will jeopardize you. And yes, many of us Americans are critical towards your government, but also towards ours. We know your people are mostly like us and just want peace, not some jihadist idiots. Always remember that. Won't lie though, many Americans are not your friend, as I'm sure many Iranians hate Americans (the people not just the government)

And sorry for your loss



Pretty ignorant statement, and you don't speak for me.

I've never heard an American say "I hate the Iranians".

It's a conflict of power between old men. Not us.

So actually there were 2 separate thoughts, maybe I should have made a divider. Pretend the 2 paragraphs were different posts. Never meant you or anyone here hates Iranians. I meant some Americans in general (yes, I've heard plenty of ignorant hate of Iranians in real life.) So sorry you mistook that as directed to you.

But... I do stand by the notion is dumb to believe Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner with no Americans on in taking off of Tehran intentionally. Yeah there was a tweet referencing IR655. Ok so what. Maybe if it was an American aircraft or filled with Americans or in America. But this Ukrainian 737, intentionally? Absurd.

There’s the remote possibility that it was intentional, but not sanctioned by the Iranian government. Someone may have gone lone wolf here to make the government lose face in front of the world. I’m still leaning more toward this being a tragic accident caused by jittery and inept personnel.
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cpd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:13 am

dara88 wrote:
Opinions are divided here. Most people (even people against the regime) are not believing the shoot down scenario at the moment. Personally, if I state my opinion, I might be in deep trouble, so it's better for me to just keep silent.


What we are seeing here from our media (aside from the terrible fires in my country) is that it looks like a very tragic accident, the plane seems to have been shot down in error. A large number of your citizens lost their lives from this, along with those from a lot of other countries. :( Hopefully no further tragedies like this happen.

Don't say anything too much - I wouldn't want to put you in a risky position.
 
SC430
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:26 am

Well the only ones that would have conclusively known yesterday whether or not this tragedy was the result of a missile attack are the very same people that are denying access to the black boxes. Go Figure!!
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:26 am

FlightRadar24 published a departure map of the 10 flights prior. PS752 is right in the middle of those routes. It did not veer off course or anything like that.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067
 
skyservice_330
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:32 am

A very sad few days here in Canada. The impact is being felt across the country.

I am curious (and forgive me if this seems dark but I am generally curious) - in a civil aviation incident like this, what is the process for the human remains? I suspect, in the case of the 60+ Canadians, that some of them may be buried in Iran - but for the others? As Canada doesn’t have active relations with Iran, would the bodies be released to a neutral country and then returned to Canada? Has there been any word if Canada will be sending a military aircraft to bring remains back to Canada? Would Iran release them to Canada directly and allow a Canadian military aircraft to land on Iranian soil? I suppose the steps Canada takes would only occur after they have been in touch with families to get a sense of their wishes (and has a sense of how many bodies need to be repatriated).

Again, I am not trying to be insensitive, just curious to understand how the aftermath is dealt with.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:34 am

mysfit wrote:
airhansa wrote:
A missile would explain most of the missing jigsaw pieces.

Except the plane turning...

Think harder.

A heat seaking missile would have hit one of the engines. The wing on that side would have been mostly destroyed causing a reduction in lift. The aircraft would then bank and turn as a result.

As I said within the first hour this is 99% likely a SAM.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:35 am

Yeah, I was kind of an ass, sorry.

Anyway, regarding the SIDs, it's always possible they were assigned the SID but given a vector prior to takeoff or shortly afterwards. Hard to say without knowing anyone that operates out of this airport.

Is Iranian ATC available in any form, audio or transcript? Considering I haven't seen anything in 36 pages I'm guessing not...
 
twinotter
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:40 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.


I hope this is sarcasm. Have you been reading the posts in this thread?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:44 am

What if this was a newly deployed Russian system which treats Ukrainian civilian planes as threats, (or) a old system accidentally got Friend-or-Foe identification config from Russia-Ukraine theater.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:46 am

twinotter wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.


I hope this is sarcasm. Have you been reading the posts in this thread?


Half sarcasm, half truth. We figured out it was a SAM before the major news outlets.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:57 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
twinotter wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.


I hope this is sarcasm. Have you been reading the posts in this thread?


Half sarcasm, half truth. We figured out it was a SAM before the major news outlets.


Yep. The type of missile and everything.

Some of the initial reports, like the Newsweek one looked like it was written by someone who had read this thread.
 
yyztpa2
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:58 am

Hindsight would suggest, in the aftermath of the missile strike into the Iraqi bases, that with an unknown US response heightening a trigger ready air defense, it would have been prudent to have a precautionary shutdown of airspace at least until US response was clear.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:02 am

Something important to look at in all the news reports, government statements, et al ...

nobody has accused Iran (the country) of perpetrating the act. To suggest otherwise, that this was sanctioned by the state entity ...

Not even the current White House occupant ... whose relationship with Iran can -- at best -- be described as "frosty" ... is willing to state that.

In fact, sources are going out of their way to characterize this disaster as an accident. Someone made a horrible, horrible mistake.

Everyone should keep that in mind ...
Last edited by litz on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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TWA302
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:02 am

Daimler wrote:
Also, BBC has talked with stewardess family and confirmed that there was no call made from an airplane during crash, so it was just a yellow press hoax.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-51048545


How is this claim even remotely used as verifiable confirmed evidence? This whole tragedy sucks but saying that a flight attendant, who perished has family members saying there was no call from the cockpit regarding an issue is insane. No way possible they know. I'm not harping on you by any means, but this is one of the things I hate. "News" agencies using bits and pieces of sn interview and using it. My prayers are with the families and those who were killed. Horrible.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:03 am

RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:09 am

RJMAZ wrote:
mysfit wrote:
airhansa wrote:
A missile would explain most of the missing jigsaw pieces.

Except the plane turning...

Think harder.

A heat seaking missile would have hit one of the engines. The wing on that side would have been mostly destroyed causing a reduction in lift. The aircraft would then bank and turn as a result.

As I said within the first hour this is 99% likely a SAM.


If shot down by a SA-15, it’s a radar-guided missile, but most IR-guided missiles have control laws that sense the target proximity and force the control vanes to position the blast forward of the highest IR signature. This control bias is the reason late-model Sidewinders are so deadly on fighters—the blast is aimed at the cockpit. Too many Atolls came back stuck in the AB section without killing the target.

Can’t say exactly how a SA-15 terminal guidance works, but probably center of mass.

GF
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:11 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
twinotter wrote:

I hope this is sarcasm. Have you been reading the posts in this thread?


Half sarcasm, half truth. We figured out it was a SAM before the major news outlets.


Yep. The type of missile and everything.

Some of the initial reports, like the Newsweek one looked like it was written by someone who had read this thread.


They didn't quote us. Let's sue Newsweek! jk
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:11 am

NIKV69 wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.


Not sure why they wouldn’t, nothing on it except routine conversation followed by “end of recording”.

GF
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:15 am

Enough is enough. I hope that there is a silver lining that comes from this and we can use this as a starting point to settle our differences. There are no issues between the American people and the Iranian people. I know a number of Iranians and I like them all. Maybe, just maybe we can use this tragedy to drag our respective governments back from the precipice and move forward toward some type of peace for the good of all and the good of the neighborhood.
 
996vtwin
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:16 am

Hi this is my first post on this site and I am an airplane fanatic and I love to study plane crashes. I have reviewed this crash and from day one I said it was a missile. If you look at the first video released you see a plane that almost seem to break apart at the end or change direction. Its almost like you break apart a paper plan before it hits the ground. It seemed to lack energy and it is indicative of that on the CCTV footage (compared to lets say the max 8 crash). Given the rarity of uncontained engine explosions causing catastrophic hull damage, the only other things was to conceive the airplane was destroyed by an outside force. The airplane lost momentum as seen in the footage and possible was torn apart before final impact, sadly. The loss of momentum I think is a good indicator also, this is the point that the engine was struck I believe.
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:20 am

TWA302 wrote:
Daimler wrote:
Also, BBC has talked with stewardess family and confirmed that there was no call made from an airplane during crash, so it was just a yellow press hoax.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-51048545


How is this claim even remotely used as verifiable confirmed evidence? This whole tragedy sucks but saying that a flight attendant, who perished has family members saying there was no call from the cockpit regarding an issue is insane. No way possible they know. I'm not harping on you by any means, but this is one of the things I hate. "News" agencies using bits and pieces of sn interview and using it. My prayers are with the families and those who were killed. Horrible.


If you have been following this thread closely, or simply bothered translating/reading that article, you would know it's nothing to do with supposed communication from the cockpit. It's regarding a claim that one of the cabin crew called her family from a cell phone to say the plane was going down. They - the family these claims are about - are the ones quoted in the article saying no such call was ever made to them.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:23 am

NIKV69 wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.


NTSB may get a digital/paper copy from Iran after BEA extracts. Most important thing is access to debris and able to perform tests on debris. I doubt NTSB/FBI will have direct access. Again has to depend on a third party.
All posts are just opinions.
 
JeremyB
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:33 am

skyservice_330 wrote:
A very sad few days here in Canada. The impact is being felt across the country.

I am curious (and forgive me if this seems dark but I am generally curious) - in a civil aviation incident like this, what is the process for the human remains? I suspect, in the case of the 60+ Canadians, that some of them may be buried in Iran - but for the others? As Canada doesn’t have active relations with Iran, would the bodies be released to a neutral country and then returned to Canada? Has there been any word if Canada will be sending a military aircraft to bring remains back to Canada? Would Iran release them to Canada directly and allow a Canadian military aircraft to land on Iranian soil? I suppose the steps Canada takes would only occur after they have been in touch with families to get a sense of their wishes (and has a sense of how many bodies need to be repatriated).

Again, I am not trying to be insensitive, just curious to understand how the aftermath is dealt with.


In the case of MH17 it was deemed unsafe to land near the accident site and they used Kiev if I remember correctly to repatriate the victims. They brought all remains they could find to a hangar where they then tried to indentify them. Some could be indentified easily, some relatives just got some tissue as there wasn't much to be recovered. But each country repatriated there citizens. I guess in this case Iran and Canada will come to an agreement that the remains can be picked up by the Canadian Air Force.

@Dara88, I'm sorry for your loss. I personaly know all to well how you are feeling and that the last thing you want to think about is the plane being brought down with a missile. I lost friends and colleagues on MH17. Thank you for your contribution on this site and hopefully lessons will be learned from this terrible accident.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:35 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.


Not sure why they wouldn’t, nothing on it except routine conversation followed by “end of recording”.

GF


Maybe because they said right after they shot it down that it had technical trouble and that If true the CVR should reflect that?
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Boeing757rb211
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:46 am

36 Pages, and 1,781 Posts / Comments and i'm surprised that of all the ones i have gone through which i believe is all of them from the beginning..... Nobody has suggested changing the title of the now incredibly massive thread from the original "Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran, Iran" to something more "on point" and accurate ? For example.... "Ukrainian 737 Crashed (Or downed or whatever word ya wanna use) in Tehran, Iran". Or... "Terrible Ukrainian Airlines 737 crash kills 176 pax and crew" Just thought might be more appropriate given what we now know and have seen to NOT have the title still say "Reports of a crash" Mechanical, Shot down, Wings Broke Off and exploded,,, whatever the cause,,,, those pictures with what i'm sure are not even "All" of the bodies and one which i'm pretty sure had blood and whatnot splashed against the wall.... Quite sad and disturbing,,, but clearly it has happened, the crash into the ground... so its definitely not a ? of iIF, anymore,,, but now just possibly exactly why it happened.
Last edited by Boeing757rb211 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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TWA302
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:48 am

BAeRJ100 wrote:
TWA302 wrote:
Daimler wrote:
Also, BBC has talked with stewardess family and confirmed that there was no call made from an airplane during crash, so it was just a yellow press hoax.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-51048545


How is this claim even remotely used as verifiable confirmed evidence? This whole tragedy sucks but saying that a flight attendant, who perished has family members saying there was no call from the cockpit regarding an issue is insane. No way possible they know. I'm not harping on you by any means, but this is one of the things I hate. "News" agencies using bits and pieces of sn interview and using it. My prayers are with the families and those who were killed. Horrible.


If you have been following this thread closely, or simply bothered translating/reading that article, you would know it's nothing to do with supposed communication from the cockpit. It's regarding a claim that one of the cabin crew called her family from a cell phone to say the plane was going down. They - the family these claims are about - are the ones quoted in the article saying no such call was ever made to them.


My apology. I haven't read each comment in the 37 pages.
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:51 am

sgrow787 wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:

Out of curiosity, does the US have a comparable version of the TOR-M1?

Maybe the ESSM?


I think I said "comparable", meaning it needs to be land based, mobile, autonomous, self contained (as in not dependent on any other systems). The ESSM is ship based. Wow the noise factor with you A nutters.

There’s avenger shorad systems
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:57 am

brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.
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Reddevil556
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:09 am

osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:16 am

996vtwin wrote:
Hi this is my first post on this site and I am an airplane fanatic and I love to study plane crashes. I have reviewed this crash and from day one I said it was a missile. If you look at the first video released you see a plane that almost seem to break apart at the end or change direction. Its almost like you break apart a paper plan before it hits the ground. It seemed to lack energy and it is indicative of that on the CCTV footage (compared to lets say the max 8 crash). Given the rarity of uncontained engine explosions causing catastrophic hull damage, the only other things was to conceive the airplane was destroyed by an outside force. The airplane lost momentum as seen in the footage and possible was torn apart before final impact, sadly. The loss of momentum I think is a good indicator also, this is the point that the engine was struck I believe.


Hello and welcome to the site!

It certainly looked like a missile scenario from the beginning for me as well.

Looking forward to your contributions to the forums.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:16 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


There seem to be reports emerging of Western intelligence detecting 2 IR 'blips' that would correspond to the launch of 2 missiles, but apparently only 1 explosion would have been detected, implying that the other would have missed / not exploded.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Western leaders are starting to call it based on said intelligence, which probably means that while not confirmed, it is probably solid info that fits all the pieces, and it sure seems to...
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musman9853
Posts: 961
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:18 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

Reporting earlier today said us sigint picked up 2 thermal signatures indicating launches.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:19 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


Pentagon said they detected the tracking radar turning on. Then two blips on infrafred satellite video, indicating two launches. And then another blip on infrared, which could be the missile detonating, or the aircraft crashing.

But two missile launches for sure.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:24 am

Revelation wrote:
https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1215433403648135168 says that NTSB has designated an official representative to the investigation. It's got a bit more jargon to explain what's going on, but in short, NTSB is as of now a participant in the investigation and is sending a representative.


The NTSB “participation” under the ICAO Annex is as an observer, the agency doing the investigation will be the CAO.IR. As well as the country of manufacture of the engines and airframe, it is customary for the country of registration to be invited to observe.

Any observer to the investigation is not permitted to comment on the investigation unless expressly authorized by the agency in change. Therefore the news reported what Ukrainian observers saw in the engines I think is bogus.

There is no protocol for the data recorders to be handed over to the manufacturer as has been suggested on this thread numerous times, likewise any refusal to do so would be totally normal, there is a clear conflict of interest for Boeing to have first access to the data. If this incident happened in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Boeing. Likewise if an Airbus had an incident in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Airbus. The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.

My guess is the data recorders will be read by the BEA, they have long standing agreement with most agencies in the area to perform that role. How that is typically done is an investigator from the agency doing the investigation will travel with the data recorders to the BEA and remain with them until the data is read, this maintains the evidence chain.

These are long established procedures and guidelines that are internationally agreed.
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NYPECO
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:35 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
twinotter wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
I feel like the airliners.net community is more competent than any of the governmental agencies that investigate aviation accidents.


I hope this is sarcasm. Have you been reading the posts in this thread?


Half sarcasm, half truth. We figured out it was a SAM before the major news outlets.


News outlets didn't want to report it until it was confirmed by US intelligence agencies, understandably. That doesn't mean they couldn't put two and two together and see that it was a missile strike.
 
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stasisLAX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:44 am

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bu ... ion-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???
Last edited by stasisLAX on Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:52 am

Deleted
 
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ikolkyo
Posts: 2984
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:56 am

stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???


What an innocent act.
 
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zeke
Posts: 14990
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:07 am

JetBuddy wrote:

Pentagon said they detected the tracking radar turning on. Then two blips on infrafred satellite video, indicating two launches. And then another blip on infrared, which could be the missile detonating, or the aircraft crashing.

But two missile launches for sure.


There is absolutely no one saying that the aircraft did not have a technical fault, while it is very probable that the aircraft was hit by a missile, the language being used by most agencies is it was accidental or unintended.

What would still make it accidental or unintended in the eyes of most world leaders given the radar and IR data ?

Is it possible the aircraft did have a technical issue, and in the process the transponder become inoperable. The air defence system sees a primary paint from a large aircraft over the capital with no transponder, and following standing orders fired thinking it was a military target ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
hamiltondaniel
Posts: 51
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:19 am

zeke wrote:

Is it possible the aircraft did have a technical issue, and in the process the transponder become inoperable. The air defence system sees a primary paint from a large aircraft over the capital with no transponder, and following standing orders fired thinking it was a military target ?



Sure, it's possible. But that's all it is at this point.

A lot of modern SAMs have an AACQ (automatic acquisition) capability, and some will then prosecute the target with only a "go/no-go" required from the operator. I can't say for sure whether the SA-15 has such capability, but it would surprise me if it didn't. Patriot radars can integrate IFF signals into this loop, including civilian Mode 3C transponders (but they're more concerned with Mode 4 and 5 military IFF - mode C is very easy to "spoof," if you can even call it that, just by changing the transponder code as on any civilian aircraft). If the Iranian SA-15 battery was set up to automatically acquire anything without a Mode C signal, all it would take from there is to hit the "go" switch. But leaving such a system in an AACQ mode right next to a major international airport, no matter the circumstances, seems more than a little nuts.

Edited for more info.
Last edited by hamiltondaniel on Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
JayBCN
Posts: 57
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:22 am

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1215433403648135168 says that NTSB has designated an official representative to the investigation. It's got a bit more jargon to explain what's going on, but in short, NTSB is as of now a participant in the investigation and is sending a representative.


The NTSB “participation” under the ICAO Annex is as an observer, the agency doing the investigation will be the CAO.IR. As well as the country of manufacture of the engines and airframe, it is customary for the country of registration to be invited to observe.

Any observer to the investigation is not permitted to comment on the investigation unless expressly authorized by the agency in change. Therefore the news reported what Ukrainian observers saw in the engines I think is bogus.

There is no protocol for the data recorders to be handed over to the manufacturer as has been suggested on this thread numerous times, likewise any refusal to do so would be totally normal, there is a clear conflict of interest for Boeing to have first access to the data. If this incident happened in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Boeing. Likewise if an Airbus had an incident in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Airbus. The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.

My guess is the data recorders will be read by the BEA, they have long standing agreement with most agencies in the area to perform that role. How that is typically done is an investigator from the agency doing the investigation will travel with the data recorders to the BEA and remain with them until the data is read, this maintains the evidence chain.

These are long established procedures and guidelines that are internationally agreed.


Thanks zeke for putting it all into perspective. I sprcifically like your summary “ The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.”
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1186
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:25 am

stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???


The link you post does not show that.

It shows a single front loader, not a bulldozer. In one photo, it is empty. In the other photo, it is being used to lift a large piece of a lower wing skin - I think the left wing.

That is certainly not a good way to handle crash site evidence, but it is not bull-dozing the crash site. Let's continue to watch before jumping to conclusions about how Iran will handle this.
 
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ikolkyo
Posts: 2984
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:25 am

zeke wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

Pentagon said they detected the tracking radar turning on. Then two blips on infrafred satellite video, indicating two launches. And then another blip on infrared, which could be the missile detonating, or the aircraft crashing.

But two missile launches for sure.


There is absolutely no one saying that the aircraft did not have a technical fault, while it is very probable that the aircraft was hit by a missile, the language being used by most agencies is it was accidental or unintended.

What would still make it accidental or unintended in the eyes of most world leaders given the radar and IR data ?

Is it possible the aircraft did have a technical issue, and in the process the transponder become inoperable. The air defence system sees a primary paint from a large aircraft over the capital with no transponder, and following standing orders fired thinking it was a military target ?


MH17 would be a good example, no faults with the aircraft, cruising with communication with ATC and following its flightplan. Yet it ended it up destroyed by a missile. I believe the idiots that did it were intending to shoot down a Russian freighter but shot down a Malaysian 777 instead.

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