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TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:25 am

JayBCN wrote:
zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1215433403648135168 says that NTSB has designated an official representative to the investigation. It's got a bit more jargon to explain what's going on, but in short, NTSB is as of now a participant in the investigation and is sending a representative.


The NTSB “participation” under the ICAO Annex is as an observer, the agency doing the investigation will be the CAO.IR. As well as the country of manufacture of the engines and airframe, it is customary for the country of registration to be invited to observe.

Any observer to the investigation is not permitted to comment on the investigation unless expressly authorized by the agency in change. Therefore the news reported what Ukrainian observers saw in the engines I think is bogus.

There is no protocol for the data recorders to be handed over to the manufacturer as has been suggested on this thread numerous times, likewise any refusal to do so would be totally normal, there is a clear conflict of interest for Boeing to have first access to the data. If this incident happened in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Boeing. Likewise if an Airbus had an incident in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Airbus. The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.

My guess is the data recorders will be read by the BEA, they have long standing agreement with most agencies in the area to perform that role. How that is typically done is an investigator from the agency doing the investigation will travel with the data recorders to the BEA and remain with them until the data is read, this maintains the evidence chain.

These are long established procedures and guidelines that are internationally agreed.


Thanks zeke for putting it all into perspective. I sprcifically like your summary “ The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.”



Is bulldozing the crash site normal?
 
osiris30
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:32 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


Official statements are 2x launched missiles detected.
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stasisLAX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:35 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???


The link you post does not show that.

It shows a single front loader, not a bulldozer. In one photo, it is empty. In the other photo, it is being used to lift a large piece of a lower wing skin - I think the left wing.

That is certainly not a good way to handle crash site evidence, but it is not bull-dozing the crash site. Let's continue to watch before jumping to conclusions about how Iran will handle this.


I suggest that you read the description of the scene in the linked article and perhaps AP.org . Good day, Sir.
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JayBCN
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:37 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???


The link you post does not show that.

It shows a single front loader, not a bulldozer. In one photo, it is empty. In the other photo, it is being used to lift a large piece of a lower wing skin - I think the left wing.

That is certainly not a good way to handle crash site evidence, but it is not bull-dozing the crash site. Let's continue to watch before jumping to conclusions about how Iran will handle this.


I agree. Let’s not jump to conclusions. Bull-dozing is an interpretation. And there are enough alternative sources of truth, i. e. videos, satellites, flight data recorders, eye witnesses. The truth will be known.
The truth will be known. Any attempt to cover up will make things worse for the perpetrators.
 
ORDfan
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:43 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.


NTSB may get a digital/paper copy from Iran after BEA extracts. Most important thing is access to debris and able to perform tests on debris. I doubt NTSB/FBI will have direct access. Again has to depend on a third party.


Even still, I'm really surprised by the turn of events with the NTSB now joining. Are the rep's going to be able to travel to Iran?

It seems very unlikely that that Iran would invite and agree to the NTSB joining, if in fact, they did unfortunately shoot the plane down by accident. Why on earth would they effectively allow the NTSB to prove as such, if it is true? It seems to me, perhaps, maybe they don't have anything to hide?
Last edited by ORDfan on Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
yurieu
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:44 am

Iran will be ashamed forever for this act, along with some specific countries for endorsing its acts against US.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:58 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Is bulldozing the crash site normal?


Anyone can see that the front end loader is not a bulldozer. The accident site is not being bulldozed, it is a single front end loader which simply could be there to lift large parts so they can recover human remains.

The article above has been modified, it was someone’s tweet that started that, the tweet been changed to

“ (Deleted previous tweet to clarify terminology)

Images of heavy machinery in use at the #PS752 crash site: right (35.561029, 51.104018) and left (35.559296, 51.104630)“

If they were trying to cover anything up, they could block all the media access the site and prevent it for being posted.
Last edited by zeke on Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tax1k
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 am

[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?
 
majano
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:14 am

It is shocking.
 
Chemist
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:22 am

tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


Very flammable, but not easy to ignite. Those are not the same qualities.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:23 am

tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?

It’s flammable but it has a really high flash point.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:28 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.

The operators of the BUK that shot down MH17 were a bunch of lowly rebels who IIRC had no training on the equipment whatsoever (it was just mysteriously "given" to them by Russia). Hence for them shooting down a civilian target was probably inevitable given that the airspace was only closed below FL330. One would think that the Iranians would have their best and brightest AA team on the unit which was "protecting" their capital.

I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.

Still, one would think that a professional AA crew would be able to properly differentiate an aircraft af FL500 vs one at ~4000 AGL.

smokeybandit wrote:
People are putting too much stock in "American/Canadian/whomever security sources"

What's a security source anyway? May well have been some retired person willing to try to get a buck for his comments and not someone with any actual insight into anything


Indeed. Got to be careful with who's statement you trust. Trusting a statement from the Pentagon without evidence is little better than accepting the Iranian Government's "technical fault" reasoning.

AirnerdTX wrote:
IMO, "pathetic" would be lying about the cause. Thankfully America never stooped to such childish antics.


So why didn't they apologize then? It's the decent thing to do when you screw up this badly.

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
You're twisting the facts here. We never formally apologized for it, but we most certainly took responsibility for what had happened and there was never any question that the Vincennes was responsible. We also paid reparations to the Iranian government in the amount of $131M for the incident. If that isn't an admission of guilt, I don't know what is.


Out of court settlements without admission of guilt are unfortunately common these days. Why is saying sorry so hard? One could say the same for the Russians who irresponsibly provided advanced AA equipment to incompetent Ukranian rebels who subsequently used it to shoot down MH17.

wjcandee wrote:
The US also released the detailed bridge video from the Vincennes with audio so you could see moment by moment how they f-ed up.


Got a link by any chance?

VS11 wrote:
CNN now reports that Iran has invited Boeing to the investigation

Iran says it has invited the US to be present during crash investigation, report says
https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-new ... index.html



Interesting. Dozens of our experts here said that wouldn't be happening and that the Iranian Government wouldn't be cooperating.

bennett123 wrote:
polot

I was thinking about a MANPAD.

There are a number of countries in the region with a grudge against Iran.

How far would some of them go to trigger a conflict leading to regime change?.

I find this an interesting prospect also. Alot of similar weapons were given to "friendly" rebels in Syria in the past few years by the US, Saudi Arabia etc. Could one of those have made it to Iran? Not so long ago the US undesignated the MEK as a terrorist organisation. Could they have been armed with such equipment with the intention of weakening the Iranian government/military?

DeltaMD90 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
One photo has presumably wedding photos on the ground. The woman in the photos is blurred out but not the man. Is that protecting a victim or is that a local cultural thing to do when taking pictures of pictures?

Cultural, she wasn't appropriately dressed I believe.

If true, Iran is doing the best thing they can do by inviting Boeing. Shows they're above the politics and the better country, in a small way.

But they really need to admit the shoot down if it is the case. They aren't gonna get away with it forever, if they did indeed shoot it down. Maybe the air defense soldiers weren't forthcoming right away but Iran would know by now if they shot it down. Show "the great Satan" how a country should own an accidental shootdown! Don't ineffectively try and hide the inevitable truth...


Indeed. In my opinion the biggest suggestion that the Iranian government didn't know that the plane had been shot down is the fact that they left the crash site open for a very long time allowing everybody to photograph the wreckage and upload it. If they'd known they'd shot it down and were going to cover it up the crash site would nearly immediately be swarming with police/military personnel making sure that nobody could photograph incriminating wreckage.

dara88 wrote:
If a missile hits a plane with a full tank, don't you think that the plane would explode immediately? Or become a fireball? In that video no such thing is visible. Also, why should anyone record a video of the dark black sky without any purpose? In my opinion, it's definitely fake.


I don't think it's a fake, though I'm sure such footage could be faked by a government with enough resources....your point about why someone was recording a plane taking off in the dark several kilometres away is very valid though and does lend credence to the idea that somebody knew in advance it was going to happen.

JAAlbert wrote:
-- except that, why does Iran have an active missile launcher near the international airport?


I would think that the mobile launch systems would have multiple different locations that they setup at and that they move around regularly so as to confuse American/Israeli/Saudi reconnaissance satellites. If one of those countries was to attack Iran, then any air defences would be a primary target.

JAAlbert wrote:
Tehran is quite a distance from all the confrontations and disputes happening in the gulf, I wouldn't think they'd feel the need for such weapons so far away.

Given the escalating tensions I would say that it's prudent for them to defend their capital like that. The US President threatened to destroy 52 Iranian cultural sites only a couple of days before and many of those would have been in Tehran....
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wjcandee
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:29 am

tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


You are correct: That is just not true. It's like home heating oil or diesel. Much, much less easily-ignitable than gasoline. It takes a good source of ignition for it to go up, but once it goes, of course, it's a big, smoky fireball and a gallon of Jet A/Kerosene has plenty of energy in it. Interestingly, gasoline has a higher autoignition point than kerosene: in other words if you put it in a pan and heat it up (which nobody in their right mind should ever do), it will get hotter than Jet A before it ignites on its own, but gasoline has a flash point (i.e. the point that it will vaporize enough to create an ignitable fuel/air mixture) that is massively-lower than Jet A.

So in the heating example, the gasoline is gonna blow very quickly because it's likely that there will be some spark or flame or other ignition source nearby that will ignite the massively-volatile fuel/air mixture before the liquid autoignites, which is why one shouldn't try it at home, or with a flame-type stove or Bunsen burner, duh.

BTUs in a gallon of gasoline: 114,000
BTUs in a gallon of Jet A: 134,780
BTUs in a gallon of home heating oil no. 2 (diesel): 139,600

Autoignition temp of Jet A: 410 F
Autoignition temp of gasoline: 536 F

Flash point of gasoline: -45F, e.g. MINUS 45 degrees F
Flash point of Jet A: 100 F, e.g. plus 100 degrees F
Last edited by wjcandee on Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:42 am, edited 5 times in total.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:34 am

[*]
THS214 wrote:
Interested wrote:
I have three questions?

How long did the flight actually last from takeoff to crash?

Once it reached 8,000 feet and contact was lost how long til it crashed?

And is 8,000 feet when people on here think the fire started or was it before then?


1.5-6 minutes
2. 2-3 minutes
3. We don't know. As they turned back, most likely that fire stated earlier.


Thanks a crash analyst told BBC that he did not believe there could have been an engine fire before 8,000 feet as uptil loss of contact the trajectory of the plane was smooth. He said had there been an engine issue before 8,000 feet he would have expected the level of climb of the plane to reduce accordingly

So if there was a fire early on for any reason it was unlikely to involve the engine
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:35 am

tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


It's flammable but not the most flammable of petroleum distillates by far. It's like diesel in being more difficult to ignite than gasoline, but gasoline is *extremely* flammable. Matches are also a pretty poor ignition source and aren't a good point of reference for how flammable it is. And it's really "combustibility" not flammability when discussing diesel and kerosene due to their higher flash points. But I get what you mean. They all burn and release energy and thus are all good fuels. Just gasoline is a more dangerous fuel because it's so easy to ignite.

And to answer the question about why the plane's fuel wouldn't immediately blow up with a missile strike, you need oxygen to burn hydrocarbons. It blows up after hitting the ground because everything is getting blown apart and thrown in the air by the destructive force of the impact, and the rest of the fuel now has enough air exposure to burn.

As for anyone discussing the CVR, I don't think it's going to help the investigation at all since it seems pretty certain they were shot down. They literally wouldn't know what hit them. I'd expect confusion and panic and nothing particularly helpful... Would not be incriminating evidence at all though so I don't know why Iran would have any issue with the data being extracted.
Last edited by Jouhou on Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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seahawk
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:48 am

zkojq wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.

The operators of the BUK that shot down MH17 were a bunch of lowly rebels who IIRC had no training on the equipment whatsoever (it was just mysteriously "given" to them by Russia). Hence for them shooting down a civilian target was probably inevitable given that the airspace was only closed below FL330. One would think that the Iranians would have their best and brightest AA team on the unit which was "protecting" their capital. .


Human factor. the crew could have been on duty since the evening and on highest alert since the launch of the Iranian ballistic missile. So they had been on edge for about 4 hours already and on duty for may 8 hours or more. Anybody who worked night shifts knows that the early morning hours from 4-6 are the hardest and your concentration drops, especially after a hard night.
 
dc863
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:02 am

I assume there were no warnings to commercial aviation issued by the Iranian or Ukrainian govt's in the hours leading up to the shootdown?
 
Virtual737
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:13 am

CCTV video in close proximity to the crash site showing the moment of impact. Not seen it posted as yet.

https://news.sky.com/video/the-ukrainia ... d-11904776
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:13 am

zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?
Last edited by sonicruiser on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:14 am

dc863 wrote:
I assume there were no warnings to commercial aviation issued by the Iranian or Ukrainian govt's in the hours leading up to the shootdown?


I think everyone was just counting on no-one getting overly trigger happy. A little foolish considering the kind of psychological impact all of the rhetoric that preceded all of this would have on people.
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:20 am

sonicruiser wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?

Radar is detectable from space. Even with civilian satellites. https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... ry-radars/
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dc863
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:23 am

sonicruiser wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?



If you're after a target flying 50-60,000 ft why use an SA-15?
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:28 am

sonicruiser wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?


The blame lies squarely with the person who pulled the trigger/pushed the button and failed to properly ID the target. Even if the US had a drone in Iranian airspace (to be clear I don’t think it did), the shooter has a responsibility to ID a target.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:38 am

chicawgo wrote:

I actually don't think it's a crazy possibility that it was an actor external to Iran. Who knows? Systems could have been hacked. Or as you said, perhaps there are Russians with control over artillery. There's a much greater chance of these being the case than there ever was of this being a mechanical problem. All that is clear now is that it was a missile. I'm not ready to say it was definitely Iran.


Trigger happy operator/local commander is definitely the most plausible explanation. You actually don't need anything other given the circumstances. It is quite plausible that the members of the military who manned air defense batteries were under immense stress. We know how US attacks work (and if anybody didn't, the takeout of that iranian general serves as a reminder). Basically, if you are targeted, you are dead a few seconds after being aware that something is amiss. And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms), but at the time iranian air defence crews assumed (even more with all the propaganda from Iranian government) that they just killed hundreds of US soldiers and that US is fuming and that the whole wrath of Uncle Sam is going down on them. And they could reasonably assume that US will target military sites first, with air defence installations first of the first.

So imagine being an iranian soldier or local commander in charge of SA-15 system. First incoming strike would probably target you, so you can expect no warning whatsoever. You know that US will send either missiles or stealth bombers. I don't know who mans these systems, but if these were reservists due to escalation of tension, then the pressure would be absolutely crazy. Yesterday you went about your business, got to work, be with your family, today you are sitting duck to US stealth bomber or Tomahawk missile. So your only hope to see family the next day is to shoot down anything before it kills you.
 
bluecrew
Posts: 40
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:43 am

seahawk wrote:
zkojq wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
Look no further than MH17.

The operators of the BUK that shot down MH17 were a bunch of lowly rebels who IIRC had no training on the equipment whatsoever (it was just mysteriously "given" to them by Russia). Hence for them shooting down a civilian target was probably inevitable given that the airspace was only closed below FL330. One would think that the Iranians would have their best and brightest AA team on the unit which was "protecting" their capital. .


Human factor. the crew could have been on duty since the evening and on highest alert since the launch of the Iranian ballistic missile. So they had been on edge for about 4 hours already and on duty for may 8 hours or more. Anybody who worked night shifts knows that the early morning hours from 4-6 are the hardest and your concentration drops, especially after a hard night.

Checks. 4-6 is the opposite of the Golden Hour, especially if it's been a long day. Even if you're prepared for it anything that happens in those few hours can easily go sideways from a messed up circadian rhythm and just exhaustion if it's not something you're pulling every day.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:44 am

xmp125a wrote:
And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms),

Iran also tipped off Iraq that they were sending missiles their way. The Iraqi then told the Americans, who apparently already knew anyway. An obvious show of force to allow them to tell their people they had done something without angering the US
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:47 am

Revelation wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
People, just read the news! Justin Trudeau confirmed that western intelligence services now think that iranians shot down the airplane by mistake. It is all over mainstream media, so no need to speculate.

I think we should be more precise, all he said was that it may have been unintentional.


Ok, my point was that we can stop speculating whether it was a missile. It was. Now for being intentional, following the reasoning I had about the missile most likely, I would say that unintentional is quite consistent with circumstances that night (see my previous post in a thread). In both cases this is extremely humiliating for Iran, either way. Either their military is quite disorganized - there IS a difference between shooting down unknown aircraft in international waters, as US did, which then turns out to be civilian - and striking the aircraft that had just taken off from your own airport, with your citizens, goddamit. Or they have really serious infiltration of rebel forces near the capital, which would be heap of trouble on their own.
 
User avatar
zkojq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:48 am

Richard28 wrote:
If my country was firing missiles at a neighbour 2 hours earlier, I too would probably be in my garden right now looking into the night sky to see if I could see or film anything.


Personally I'd be in my basement doing my best to stay safe and avoid being caught up in the fallout. No point in dying from shrapnel due to trying to film a video of the action for Instagram/Facebook.

dara88 wrote:
I just hope investigators find other reasons for this crash. I had friends on that flight, heading for Canada.

I'm really sorry to hear this, mate. Must be a very difficult time for you and the other friends and relatives. I hope that the investigation is full and thorough and that everyone affected will get closure.


Daimler wrote:
The investigator's already confirmed that both engines have no signs of fire damage or any kind of internal failure/explosion. They most probably were in working condition up until plane's collision with the ground. The fire was coming from the hull or wings.

So far all the facts corroborate on external missile strike. But you keep pushing your agenda and saying otherwise...


If the Iranian government are trying to do a coverup, why are they letting investigators say that there was no engine damage?

RadicalX wrote:
CNN just reported that a US official confirmed that Iran has invited NTSB to join the investigation.
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


A very positive development. Great to hear.

seahawk wrote:
Human factor. the crew could have been on duty since the evening and on highest alert since the launch of the Iranian ballistic missile. So they had been on edge for about 4 hours already and on duty for may 8 hours or more. Anybody who worked night shifts knows that the early morning hours from 4-6 are the hardest and your concentration drops, especially after a hard night.


Very good point.
First to fly the 787-9
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:50 am

xmp125a wrote:
Ok, my point was that we can stop speculating whether it was a missile. It was. Now for being intentional, following the reasoning I had about the missile most likely, I would say that unintentional is quite consistent with circumstances that night (see my previous post in a thread). In both cases this is extremely humiliating for Iran, either way. Either their military is quite disorganized - there IS a difference between shooting down unknown aircraft in international waters, as US did, which then turns out to be civilian - and striking the aircraft that had just taken off from your own airport, with your citizens, goddamit. Or they have really serious infiltration of rebel forces near the capital, which would be heap of trouble on their own.

It's possible that the AA operator could not see where the aircraft had taken off from
 
gloom
Posts: 476
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:52 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
Half sarcasm, half truth. We figured out it was a SAM before the major news outlets.


Well, not exactly true.

Any aviation geek on aviation forum can have his hypothesis. There are magnitude of them in this thread. It takes only one to pat yourself on the back and say "we did it right". Forgetting tens (or hundreds) of others.

Official analysis is not about giving every single one possible. It's about giving the one true. Especially with tensions like we have in this case.

So, I'd say your phrase is like in many jokes in different languages, where "stole bikes" turns into "opened car lease", or whatever joke this particular language includes.

Your phrase should read "there were thesis among other on this forum, that is was caused by missile, and it has been confirmed". It wasn't "we" (not all), not figured out (took a guess), but sure, before officials, since they had to take time to confirm on many sources, analyze political aspects, contact other countries etc. I guess many officials knew before thesis. Maybe even press. But they just don't say any possibility, they're expected to deliver trusted content.

Cheers,
Adam
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:54 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
But... I do stand by the notion is dumb to believe Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner with no Americans on in taking off of Tehran intentionally. Yeah there was a tweet referencing IR655. Ok so what. Maybe if it was an American aircraft or filled with Americans or in America. But this Ukrainian 737, intentionally? Absurd.


I don't think that anyone who is open to possibility that it was intentional is referring to Iranian government. Because that would probably incite mass protest if not the revolution. They cannot possibly that stupid. Disorganized military which made a tragic mistake, yes. For mullahs to order a shootdown of basically their own people taking from their own airport would be patently crazy.

No, the only possibility would be a rogue force.

Let's not forget that US revealed that they verified the missile theory by analyzing intercepted iranian communications, so while we don't know at what level these communications were, it lends credence to the theory that they were immediately aware that they shot down an airliner, and this pretty much rule out any rebels (except if there was infiltration in iran military).
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:56 am

wjcandee wrote:
tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


You are correct: That is just not true. It's like home heating oil or diesel. Much, much less easily-ignitable than gasoline. It takes a good source of ignition for it to go up, but once it goes, of course, it's a big, smoky fireball and a gallon of Jet A/Kerosene has plenty of energy in it. Interestingly, gasoline has a higher autoignition point than kerosene: in other words if you put it in a pan and heat it up (which nobody in their right mind should ever do), it will get hotter than Jet A before it ignites on its own, but gasoline has a flash point (i.e. the point that it will vaporize enough to create an ignitable fuel/air mixture) that is massively-lower than Jet A.

So in the heating example, the gasoline is gonna blow very quickly because it's likely that there will be some spark or flame or other ignition source nearby that will ignite the massively-volatile fuel/air mixture before the liquid autoignites, which is why one shouldn't try it at home, or with a flame-type stove or Bunsen burner, duh.

BTUs in a gallon of gasoline: 114,000
BTUs in a gallon of Jet A: 134,780
BTUs in a gallon of home heating oil no. 2 (diesel): 139,600

Autoignition temp of Jet A: 410 F
Autoignition temp of gasoline: 536 F

Flash point of gasoline: -45F, e.g. MINUS 45 degrees F
Flash point of Jet A: 100 F, e.g. plus 100 degrees F


One of my favorite videos discussing various fuels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nL10C7FSbE
 
Adipocere
Posts: 323
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:56 am

kennethP3 wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms),

Iran also tipped off Iraq that they were sending missiles their way. The Iraqi then told the Americans, who apparently already knew anyway. An obvious show of force to allow them to tell their people they had done something without angering the US


That may have been the clear to the tippy top Iranian leadership. But to the grunt in the foxhole near Tehran may have just heard news that Iranian missiles had avenged their general and killed 80 or how many ever US soldiers Iran was initially claiming. That local commander or soldier may very well have been expecting a full blown counter attack from the US.
Last edited by Adipocere on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
gloom
Posts: 476
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:56 am

musman9853 wrote:
There’s avenger shorad systems


It's not exactly the same.

Avenger is bulit to launch manpad-like missiles on point protection. So basically "get helos out" system, with more rockets available.

Tor was designed to withstand coordinated attacks on important objects. It includes missile/bomb threat defense, and missile is much more capable (range/altitude is much higher). I was looking for US based system, but none is designed to do what Russians did. Perhaps no need to, since army-level systems were more capable and more mobile than russian counterparts.

Cheers,
Adam
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:57 am

For all those people saying this plane might have been shot down because it was 1hr late, why would that even make a difference?

People on A.net can look on FR24 and see if a plane is late. Even if it missed the departure slot assigned to it, the AA crew would've known this.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:59 am

litz wrote:
Something important to look at in all the news reports, government statements, et al ...

nobody has accused Iran (the country) of perpetrating the act. To suggest otherwise, that this was sanctioned by the state entity ...

Not even the current White House occupant ... whose relationship with Iran can -- at best -- be described as "frosty" ... is willing to state that.

In fact, sources are going out of their way to characterize this disaster as an accident. Someone made a horrible, horrible mistake.

Everyone should keep that in mind ...


Yes, yesterday's trump address was very out of character for him. It looked as he is actually defending Iran, which there was snowball's chance in hell that will happen. He must have known that USA has indications it was friendly fire missile originating in Iran before he gave that talk. And I am pretty sure that that knowledge basically prevented any kind of retaliation by US, as this tragedy would be enough shock for Iranian regime and people, along with further isolation to Iran (no more flights from/to Teheran for a while).
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:00 am

Adipocere wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms),

Iran also tipped off Iraq that they were sending missiles their way. The Iraqi then told the Americans, who apparently already knew anyway. An obvious show of force to allow them to tell their people they had done something without angering the US


That may have been the clear to the tippy top Iranian leadership. But to the grunt in the foxhole near Tehran may have just heard news that Iranian missiles had avenged their general and killed 80 or how many ever US soldiers Iran was initially claiming. That local commander or soldier may very well have been expecting a full blown counter attack from the US.


Man this is the worst scenario I have read in this entire thread so far. Imagine something as bad as fake reports on the media being responsible for this. Terrible.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:03 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:09 am

If the aircraft was shot down by Iranian military authorities, one has to question why they didn't/couldn't identify the aircraft as a regular civilian flight operating from the nearby international airport? How likely is it that a covert mission is able to use an international airport to depart from - I could understand if this was a flight arriving into the airport but this was clearly departing from the airport.

The Trump administration ordered all US flights away from Iranian airspace in the hours before the plane was downed. It could be that the US intelligence know of an escalation in Iranian air missile systems that could theoretically down a plane, or a plot by the Iranians to down a US plane - maybe the latter was converted to a generic western plane in the aftermath of the US order.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:10 am

tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


No, that is NOT TRUE. That is as far from the truth as it could be. Your car gasoline is far more flammable. Chemically, jet engine fuel is basically or most similar to petroleum (like the one used in petroleum lamps before electricity became widely available).
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:18 am

JayBCN wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization has publicly announced thar it is NOT handing over the black box information to Boeing or the US in its investigation, organization chief Ali Abedzadeh told the press, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A preliminary report from the ICAO reported that one of the "black boxes" aboard the 737 — the flight data recorder- was heavily damaged and reportedly lost parts of its memory, The Associated Press has reported.

BULLDOZING THE CRASH SITE???


The link you post does not show that.

It shows a single front loader, not a bulldozer. In one photo, it is empty. In the other photo, it is being used to lift a large piece of a lower wing skin - I think the left wing.

That is certainly not a good way to handle crash site evidence, but it is not bull-dozing the crash site. Let's continue to watch before jumping to conclusions about how Iran will handle this.


I agree. Let’s not jump to conclusions. Bull-dozing is an interpretation. And there are enough alternative sources of truth, i. e. videos, satellites, flight data recorders, eye witnesses. The truth will be known.
The truth will be known. Any attempt to cover up will make things worse for the perpetrators.


I bet there are intense talks going on in Iranian government whether to admit the guilt or continue to deny it against a mountain of evidence. The evidence on crash site becomes immaterial if you can see from orbit (pun intended) that the airplane was downed by a missile. Because, as US intelligence revealed, they intercepted iranian communications where they discussed the downing and implicating themselves. Even flight recorder data is superfluous now. The only problem might be that most evidence comes from "the big Satan". But I assume that perhaps Russians have their own sources too, and perhaps some of Iranian allies as well.

Of course it is possible that Iran will deny it forever (just as Egypt still denies responsibility for at least 2 crashed of Egypt air that happened due to crew error and poor maintenance). But the videos and reports are all over the news. They cannot block internet forever and at some point there will be really uncomfortable questions from their own public, censorship or not. Relatives of the victims are probably willing to risk jail by challenging the government if their loved ones ended up killed by Iranian mistake, and then the site bulldozed over...
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1244
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:21 am

stasisLAX wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

Press and eyewitnesses are reporting that Iranian bulldozers are clearing the flight 752 crash site, destroying vital evidence for crash investigators.
....


The link you post does not show that.

It shows a single front loader, not a bulldozer. In one photo, it is empty. In the other photo, it is being used to lift a large piece of a lower wing skin - I think the left wing.

That is certainly not a good way to handle crash site evidence, but it is not bull-dozing the crash site. Let's continue to watch before jumping to conclusions about how Iran will handle this.


I suggest that you read the description of the scene in the linked article and perhaps AP.org . Good day, Sir.


I did read it. They didn't get off to a great start when they report the wrong equipment, which is for the course for the generation of twitter journalism, but the basic point is that it is not accurate to simply say they are bulldozing the crash site.

To be clear, I am concerned about whether they are documenting pieces thoroughly enough before moving them, and that lifting pieces of the aircraft like that may make some of the more subtle signs of what happened less clear. I'd have a lot more confidence in the thoroughness of the investigation if they were taking more time before moving pieces, and especially if some of the foreign investigation participants were on site providing input on what details they should be documenting before disturbing anything.

At the same time, the mere fact there are a significant number of photos coming out of the crash site is a positive sign.

Jouhou wrote:
As for anyone discussing the CVR, I don't think it's going to help the investigation at all since it seems pretty certain they were shot down.


I think it will have some utility, although mainly for understanding the sequence of events following the fire. There's a good chance it captured the sound of the presumed warhead, and it should establish the condition of the crew afterwards. The Dutch report on MH17 may provide some examples of what investigators were able to learn from the CVR, although if I remember right, the crew was incapacitated immediately in that tragedy.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:23 am

zkojq wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I find it difficult to believe an air defense crew would be unable to differentiate between an aircraft that obviously just took off from IKA and an aircraft that most likely would be flying faster, at a higher altitude,

Look no further than MH17.

The operators of the BUK that shot down MH17 were a bunch of lowly rebels who IIRC had no training on the equipment whatsoever (it was just mysteriously "given" to them by Russia). Hence for them shooting down a civilian target was probably inevitable given that the airspace was only closed below FL330. One would think that the Iranians would have their best and brightest AA team on the unit which was "protecting" their capital.


Why you assume that? There was massive escalation of tensions and it is possible reserve units of the military were called in. I don't know exactly how the Iranian military operates, but given the estimates that it is one of the largest forces in region, it is certainly not 100% professional, but relying on reservists as well.

And who says that missile system protected very valuable targets? SA-15 is short to medium range, not all that useful to defend yourself from the high flying bombers.
 
cosmopolitan
Posts: 7
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:26 am

Iran dismisses claims that plane was shot down:

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... h-Ukraine-
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:27 am

sonicruiser wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?


The tech specs for the TOR-M1 state a max altitude of 20000ft (6000m), so no they wouldn't be trying to shoot a drone at FL500.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:47 am

The CVR should at least clear up why there was no communications between the plane and the ground,. It would also possible give us more leads as to why the plane banked to the right.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:49 am

sonicruiser wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I wonder if there was another target that was legitimate in the area at the time. KAL007 was shot down on a night when there were two US Boeing RC-135s (iirc) in the area at a time and MH17 was shot down when the Ukrainian rebels were trying to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane. Given the tensions in the area at the time, I would be very surprised if the USAF didn't have a Global Hawk sitting up at FL500/600 above Tehran watching what's going on. Maybe the AA operators tried to shoot that down but locked onto the 737 mistakenly instead. The fact that the Pentagon is confirming they have sigint of the Iranian AA radars starting up makes it certain that they had some kind of asset in the area.


I was wondering the same thing. It could actually shift the responsibility from Iran to the US if proven true that Iran intended to lock onto the drone. But would Iran even have been able to lock onto that drone at night?


As with my initial reasoning, based on tame Iranian response, that is highly unlikely and does not absolve iran from guilt.

- they should shut down airspace down for civilian flights anyway at the moment they rained missiles at US bases
- they should be able to distinguish between military and civilian targets or (see the previous point) make sure no civilian air traffic is nearby military operations.

After all, the airplane had been cleared to lift off. Does not change much in assigning guilt outside of Iran, only inside iran (e.g. whether their air regulator is responsible, or ATC, or whoever failed to clear the airspace).
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:56 am

kennethP3 wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Ok, my point was that we can stop speculating whether it was a missile. It was. Now for being intentional, following the reasoning I had about the missile most likely, I would say that unintentional is quite consistent with circumstances that night (see my previous post in a thread). In both cases this is extremely humiliating for Iran, either way. Either their military is quite disorganized - there IS a difference between shooting down unknown aircraft in international waters, as US did, which then turns out to be civilian - and striking the aircraft that had just taken off from your own airport, with your citizens, goddamit. Or they have really serious infiltration of rebel forces near the capital, which would be heap of trouble on their own.

It's possible that the AA operator could not see where the aircraft had taken off from


We are not allowed to deviate to political or non-airplane issues in this thread, but just to say, every decent military in the world has very strong procedures for verifying identity of the target BEFORE you shoot at them. Plus, airplane just took off from largest international airport, and had, we can safely assume, all clearances. Guy at trigger "not aware" that the target is basically their own airliner speaks of total disorganization inside the Iranian military (which wants to have nukes!). I feel that much better scenario for Iran would be just trigger happy overstressed commander who ignored proper procedures for launching SAM...
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:59 am

Adipocere wrote:
That may have been the clear to the tippy top Iranian leadership. But to the grunt in the foxhole near Tehran may have just heard news that Iranian missiles had avenged their general and killed 80 or how many ever US soldiers Iran was initially claiming. That local commander or soldier may very well have been expecting a full blown counter attack from the US.


Exactly. I think this is most likely. Somebody grossly violating procedures at very local level.
 
xmp125a
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:03 am

cosmopolitan wrote:
Iran dismisses claims that plane was shot down:

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/ ... h-Ukraine-


Of course they would. The whole storm that they carefully nurtured to be directed outwards at "the great Satan" can easily turn around and reflects inwards.

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Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos