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xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:05 am

airhansa wrote:
The CVR should at least clear up why there was no communications between the plane and the ground,. It would also possible give us more leads as to why the plane banked to the right.


Because it was hit by missile, which is pretty sudden and devastating event?

I think now the onus is on Iran to show that CVR and FDR disprove missile theory, so they are in a really tight spot if the data is not available or shows just everything is OK until a second when nothing more works.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:13 am

airhansa wrote:
The CVR should at least clear up why there was no communications between the plane and the ground,. It would also possible give us more leads as to why the plane banked to the right.


Unfortunately there is a possibility that a cable between the cockpit and the data recorders could be severed.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Redd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:13 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Redd wrote:
airhansa wrote:
The problem with a fire causing problems for the aircraft, is that such a fire would never spread so quickly to result in a situation where the pilot doesn't mayday for help.


1. Aviate
2. Navigate
3. Communicate

Whether it was a missile or uncontained engine failure or another cause, the pilots first job is to fly the plane first, communicate last. If the pilots are dealing with a critical situation, there is no reasonable expectation that they would have communicated with ATC.


There’s no communicating when the electrics go dead in an instant as seen by sudden loss of ADS-B data.



Or that...
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:32 am

Jouhou wrote:
tax1k wrote:
[*]
leghorn wrote:
The fuel is almost like diesel. You can throw a lit match in to Diesel and it usually will not ignite. even stale petrol won't ignite with a lit match. I know, I experimented extensively as a child.


This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


As for anyone discussing the CVR, I don't think it's going to help the investigation at all since it seems pretty certain they were shot down. They literally wouldn't know what hit them. I'd expect confusion and panic and nothing particularly helpful... Would not be incriminating evidence at all though so I don't know why Iran would have any issue with the data being extracted.


The CVR would capture more than just conversations or warnings, it was tied into the MH17 investigation. It had a sound wave related to a high energy event from the missile and they used signal triangulation to determine where it originated from and lined up with. Any conversation or aircraft warnings may not be terribly helpful, but the CVR itself could still hold other evidence pointing toward a shoot down.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 am

xmp125a wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:

It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.


Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner


Your post might get deleted if you don't source your facts.
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Alfons
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:40 am

xmp125a wrote:
chicawgo wrote:

I actually don't think it's a crazy possibility that it was an actor external to Iran. Who knows? Systems could have been hacked. Or as you said, perhaps there are Russians with control over artillery. There's a much greater chance of these being the case than there ever was of this being a mechanical problem. All that is clear now is that it was a missile. I'm not ready to say it was definitely Iran.


Trigger happy operator/local commander is definitely the most plausible explanation. You actually don't need anything other given the circumstances. It is quite plausible that the members of the military who manned air defense batteries were under immense stress. We know how US attacks work (and if anybody didn't, the takeout of that iranian general serves as a reminder). Basically, if you are targeted, you are dead a few seconds after being aware that something is amiss. And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms), but at the time iranian air defence crews assumed (even more with all the propaganda from Iranian government) that they just killed hundreds of US soldiers and that US is fuming and that the whole wrath of Uncle Sam is going down on them. And they could reasonably assume that US will target military sites first, with air defence installations first of the first.

So imagine being an iranian soldier or local commander in charge of SA-15 system. First incoming strike would probably target you, so you can expect no warning whatsoever. You know that US will send either missiles or stealth bombers. I don't know who mans these systems, but if these were reservists due to escalation of tension, then the pressure would be absolutely crazy. Yesterday you went about your business, got to work, be with your family, today you are sitting duck to US stealth bomber or Tomahawk missile. So your only hope to see family the next day is to shoot down anything before it kills you.


while being based next to a known commercial airport seeing dozens of large airliners flying in and out all the time, with sometimes family members or friends sitting inside? No. I don't think so when you are a local. But as a mercenary... .
 
zhetenyi1973
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:46 am

WkndWanderer wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
tax1k wrote:
[*]

This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


As for anyone discussing the CVR, I don't think it's going to help the investigation at all since it seems pretty certain they were shot down. They literally wouldn't know what hit them. I'd expect confusion and panic and nothing particularly helpful... Would not be incriminating evidence at all though so I don't know why Iran would have any issue with the data being extracted.


The CVR would capture more than just conversations or warnings, it was tied into the MH17 investigation. It had a sound wave related to a high energy event from the missile and they used signal triangulation to determine where it originated from and lined up with. Any conversation or aircraft warnings may not be terribly helpful, but the CVR itself could still hold other evidence pointing toward a shoot down.


What is your proof of this? The wiki page of MH17 only mentions sudden stop of recordings. If this is also the case here, Iran can conveniently claim
sudden engine failure. Actually, there can be really such recording on the black boxes further adding support for their lie. Unless the CVR
contains pilots shouting about missile hit there might be no evidence of a missile at all on the recordings.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:54 am

If I am right in thinking, when you put together the multiple intelligence briefs and leaks from the US, it all states that there were two missile launches, but the only ever discusses of one missile strike bringing down the plane - I recall something about there being two "heat signatures" similar to a missile launch followed by one heat signature similar to a plane being hit.
 
Chasensfo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:58 am

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Unless the CVR
contains pilots shouting about missile hit there might be no evidence of a missile at all on the recordings.

If they say ANYTHING that suggests an external object collided with the aircraft, then that alone debunks the "mechanical failure" hypothesis that Iran put out when the wreckage was still smoldering. The CVR and FDR are very, very important here and it is foolish to state otherwise.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:08 am

Andy33 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
The only thing that is unhelpful at present is that the Iranians do have the black boxes but that they will not surrender to Boeing (since it is an US company). I do hope they pass them on to experts which can correctly and impartially analyse the data since - not wanting to cause panic - who knows whether this issue that brought this plane down may not crop up elsewhere?


It would be even more unhelpful if they did pass them to Boeing. Wherever in the world a crash takes place, the accident investigation is by international law the responsibility of the country where the crash occurred. If that country lacks the technical resources to read the data recorder or the cockpit voice recorder they subcontract that to the national accident investigation service of some other country that does have the capability. A recent example is when Ethiopia subcontracted the French BEA to extract data from the damaged recorders of ET302. What is never done is to get the aircraft manufacturer to read the data. That's partly because they won't have the technology to do it - they fit recorders that are designed and built by third party manufacturers, they don't design or build them themselves. There's also a major potential conflict of interest.
If a Boeing aircraft crashes in the USA, the recorders never go to Boeing, they go to the NTSB, which is in charge of crash investigation in the USA. Now if Iran had said that they refused to allow Boeing or the NTSB to observe the investigation, that would be unhelpful, and also illegal since they have a right to observe. But they haven't said that at all, they've already said they will allow this. We don't know whether Iran has the capability to extract the data or not, it may depend on the degree of damage, which their accident investigation team will need to explore. If there is too much damage to extract it using whatever equipment the Iranians may have, chances are they will then negotiate with a third country to do it for them. This is not going to happen instantaneously.
Britain, China, France and Russia certainly have the right equipment, Germany and Canada may well do too, as may others. Of course the NTSB does, but it would be politically unacceptable to ask them.


Thanks for the clarification. Really great point (I mean it!).
This morning there was news that the Iranian Authorities will hand the Black Boxes today to the Ukrainian Authorities so fingers crossed.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:11 am

I find it very implausible that a military unit based near a MAJOR international airport primarily used by ethnic-Iranians (considering the state of international relations of the country) would shoot down a plane so haphazardly without attempting to identify it first.

1) Let's say the first missile strike was when the transponder stopped - at this point the plane had already started to deviate from its intended course - why didn't the pilots contact ATC to request clearance to land at the airport, or to request clearance to do anything? If the radio had failed at this point, then the pilots would have (should have) attempted to communicate the lack of radio through other means before deviating from the intended course, such as through the transponder.

2) If the first missile strike was the cause of the deviation, whether initiated by the pilots or due to the aerodynamic flaws of a strike, why was there a delay before the transponder knocked out? I still consider the lack of communications directly from the pilot to be troublesome since the plane doesn't seem to be too "out of control" and the descent appeared to be shallow.

I doubt any military anywhere would shoot down an airplane within a vicinity of an international airport without trying to make contact. The pilot radio isn't the only method to contact a civilian aircraft and I presume a fighter jet could have been sent up quite quickly since it's Tehran.

Is it possible for us to find out whether the transponder was broadcasting an emergency message?
 
zhetenyi1973
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:19 am

Chasensfo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

If they say ANYTHING that suggests an external object collided with the aircraft, then that alone debunks the "mechanical failure" hypothesis that Iran put out when the wreckage was still smoldering. The CVR and FDR are very, very important here and it is foolish to state otherwise.


According to wikipedia on MH17:
This preliminary report concluded that there was no evidence of any technical or operational failure in the aircraft or from the crew prior to the ending of the CVR and FDR recordings at 13.20:03 hrs (UTC).

So, there was nothing on them. Missile hit was deduced by inspecting the wreckage. Obviously, Iran controls the inspection here, so nothing conclusive can emerge from that. If Iran does not change their rhetoric by Monday that means they will go with this lie forever. That means we can dismiss any findings on the recordings now because we already know the cause of the crash. There is absolutely no need for us to know what is on those recordings. I really hope everybody here understands that the missile hit is a fact. No need to come up with any other scenario anymore.
Last edited by zhetenyi1973 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:20 am

Andy33 wrote:

It would be even more unhelpful if they did pass them to Boeing. Wherever in the world a crash takes place, the accident investigation is by international law the responsibility of the country where the crash occurred. If that country lacks the technical resources to read the data recorder or the cockpit voice recorder they subcontract that to the national accident investigation service of some other country that does have the capability. A recent example is when Ethiopia subcontracted the French BEA to extract data from the damaged recorders of ET302. What is never done is to get the aircraft manufacturer to read the data. That's partly because they won't have the technology to do it - they fit recorders that are designed and built by third party manufacturers, they don't design or build them themselves. There's also a major potential conflict of interest.
If a Boeing aircraft crashes in the USA, the recorders never go to Boeing, they go to the NTSB, which is in charge of crash investigation in the USA. Now if Iran had said that they refused to allow Boeing or the NTSB to observe the investigation, that would be unhelpful, and also illegal since they have a right to observe. But they haven't said that at all, they've already said they will allow this. We don't know whether Iran has the capability to extract the data or not, it may depend on the degree of damage, which their accident investigation team will need to explore. If there is too much damage to extract it using whatever equipment the Iranians may have, chances are they will then negotiate with a third country to do it for them. This is not going to happen instantaneously.
Britain, China, France and Russia certainly have the right equipment, Germany and Canada may well do too, as may others. Of course the NTSB does, but it would be politically unacceptable to ask them.


Ukraine inherited a huge aviation industry from the Soviet Union - it was either the primary or secondary capital of the Soviet aviation industry. It's aviation output is on par with the likes of Canada and Brazil, but probably exceeds the two countries in terms of technological awareness and academics albeit in relation to the Soviet aviation model. I would put a lot of trust in them to be able to investigate the circumstances of the crash alone and I'd also consider the possibility that they have the knowledge to extract data from the VDR and FDR. The problem is probably whether they have the knowledge to extract date from the various manufacturers used in the West - France knows about the Airbus ones, Russia about the Russian ones, NTSB about the American ones etc...
 
Eikie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:24 am

airhansa wrote:
1) Let's say the first missile strike was when the transponder stopped - at this point the plane had already started to deviate from its intended course - why didn't the pilots contact ATC to request clearance to land at the airport, or to request clearance to do anything? If the radio had failed at this point, then the pilots would have (should have) attempted to communicate the lack of radio through other means before deviating from the intended course, such as through the transponder.

2) If the first missile strike was the cause of the deviation, whether initiated by the pilots or due to the aerodynamic flaws of a strike, why was there a delay before the transponder knocked out? I still consider the lack of communications directly from the pilot to be troublesome since the plane doesn't seem to be too "out of control" and the descent appeared to be shallow.

Good chance that if the radio failed due to impact, explosion, fire or other major issue, the transponder also stopped working. Besides that, communication is never the first thing on the list when confronted with a failure. Flying the plane (keep it in the air) and navigating the plane (don't hit the mountain) are paramount.

If there was a sufficient issue, it would cause a stream of warnings, bells and lights in the cockpit, requiring immediate attention. If enough failures are present, you really need some time to proces it and again, communication is far from the first thing on your mind at that time. And setting the transponder, if it still worked, would be even lower on the list, both mentally and on the actual checklists.

regarding the deviation, is it already clear they did deviate and not follow the departure procedure, possibly cutting a corner (some flight management computers do that) or following a shortcut previously gotten from ATC?
 
aw70
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:29 am

Now that it's pretty much beyond doubt that the plane was brought down by a missile... the next question is "within the Iranian military - which unit did this, precisely?"

This might get interesting for a specific reason. The dude which got droned January 3rd was something like the Heinrich Himmler of Iran: a top dog within the Iranian equivalent of the SS. Now analogies only go so far, but there is an interesting similarity between the Third Reich and Iran insofar as both had resp. have a normal army, plus an additional "ideological army". In the Third Reich, this ideological army was the Waffen-SS: in Iran, that job is covered the Revolutionary Guards. The Waffen-SS, as the armed forces of the general SS, was for all practical purposes a second Wehrmacht (and not a mini-Wehrmacht, either: by the war's end they had grown to considerable size). The Revolutionary Guard troops are a very similar outfit: like the Waffen-SS, they have all components needed for ground-based warfare as organic units within their own command structure, completely separate from the regular army. This includes anti-aircraft assets (!).

For obvious reasons, the Revolutionary Guards are not as generally loved within the general population in Iran as the Iranian Government might wish. Rather, a sizeable portion of the population actively loathes them, for being the fanatical soldiers of what is increasingly seen as a doomed and oppressive religious dictatorship. This is also why droning of Soleimani was far from universally mourned by everyone in Iran.

If it were to transpire that a Revolutionary Guard anti-aircraft unit had erroneously creamed that jet full of locals, then this would considerably add to the tensions within the country - far more than if a "normal" anti-aircraft unit had screwed up.

And it's not entirely unlikely that it was, in fact, a Revolutionary Guard unit which did this. Reason being that these guys are first in line to get targeted by U.S. airstrikes - so they have far more reason to be paranoid than normal Iranian army bases.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:35 am

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

As for anyone discussing the CVR, I don't think it's going to help the investigation at all since it seems pretty certain they were shot down. They literally wouldn't know what hit them. I'd expect confusion and panic and nothing particularly helpful... Would not be incriminating evidence at all though so I don't know why Iran would have any issue with the data being extracted.


The CVR would capture more than just conversations or warnings, it was tied into the MH17 investigation. It had a sound wave related to a high energy event from the missile and they used signal triangulation to determine where it originated from and lined up with. Any conversation or aircraft warnings may not be terribly helpful, but the CVR itself could still hold other evidence pointing toward a shoot down.


What is your proof of this? The wiki page of MH17 only mentions sudden stop of recordings. If this is also the case here, Iran can conveniently claim
sudden engine failure. Actually, there can be really such recording on the black boxes further adding support for their lie. Unless the CVR
contains pilots shouting about missile hit there might be no evidence of a missile at all on the recordings.


It's discussed in the MH17 accident report, which is obviously more comprehensive than the Wikipedia page. "The high frequency sound recorded on the Cockpit Voice Recorder is the sound of a pressure wave associated with an explosion." "The short noise peak recorded in the last 20 milliseconds of the recording was a highly energetic soundwave. Signal triangulation showed that the noise originated from outside the aeroplane starting from a position above the left hand side of the cockpit, propagating from front to aft." They used that data and other info from the wreckage and victims to identify the missile trajectory and detonation area.

https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/page/3 ... -july-2014
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:40 am

dara88 wrote:
Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Dara based on your name I can see you are Iranian or of Iranian descent. I know you want to defend your country and believe it did no wrong but sometimes you have to take a step back and just look at everything piling up... mistakes happen. And this plane was shot down


I just hope investigators find other reasons for this crash. I had friends on that flight, heading for Canada.


I'm sorry for your loss but I feel that you're unable accept the obvious. Whether that's due to an emotional response or due to some loyalty toward Iran, I don't know, but the evidence is overwhelming. How can we expect Iran to come clean if those connected to the incident can't look at the objective evidence and accept that there's a strong possibility that it was shot down? How can we learn from this if we can't accept the cause of the problem? Accidental shutdowns happen. This is the third in recent history, all involving the ukraine in some way. Those guys must be feeling very vulnerable and are now looking for answers..
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:45 am

sonicruiser wrote:
For all those people saying this plane might have been shot down because it was 1hr late, why would that even make a difference?

People on A.net can look on FR24 and see if a plane is late. Even if it missed the departure slot assigned to it, the AA crew would've known this.

That was my thought as well. I don't think the plane being late by an hour made any difference.

The AA crew was clearly grossly incompetent, so they wouldn't even be aware of passenger airlines schedules, period.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:49 am

scbriml wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:

Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?


USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner


Your post might get deleted if you don't source your facts.


https://youtu.be/zitU1e_waWc?t=110 (CBS newscast video)

additionally:
- US intelligence was talking about missile evidence on the crash site (so that was not internet hoax)

Here about intercepted communications:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... senger-jet
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:52 am

Chasensfo wrote:
zhetenyi1973 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

If they say ANYTHING that suggests an external object collided with the aircraft, then that alone debunks the "mechanical failure" hypothesis that Iran put out when the wreckage was still smoldering. The CVR and FDR are very, very important here and it is foolish to state otherwise.


At current stage, it actually only chance for Iran to disprove missile theory to present the CVR and FDR that shows evidence of some catastrophic failure that is NOT consistent with the missile, If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:57 am

airhansa wrote:
1) Let's say the first missile strike was when the transponder stopped - at this point the plane had already started to deviate from its intended course - why didn't the pilots contact ATC to request clearance to land at the airport, or to request clearance to do anything? If the radio had failed at this point, then the pilots would have (should have) attempted to communicate the lack of radio through other means before deviating from the intended course, such as through the transponder.

There was no deviation from its intended course before the transponder stopped. That was misinformation. All the previous flight 752s made the same turn in all the previous days. See post #1750.

2) If the first missile strike was the cause of the deviation, whether initiated by the pilots or due to the aerodynamic flaws of a strike, why was there a delay before the transponder knocked out? I still consider the lack of communications directly from the pilot to be troublesome since the plane doesn't seem to be too "out of control" and the descent appeared to be shallow.


There was no delay before the transponder stopped. If anything, the transponder may have stopped prior to the missile strike.
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:00 am

xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:00 am

xmp125a wrote:
USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner

This is the first I've heard about the Iranian chatter that they were aware they downed an airliner. Is there a source for this?
 
Eikie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:05 am

zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.

It seems more and more it was no accident, but a criminal act.

People have every right to demand at least an impartial party to see all the data, including the CVR/FDR.
Last edited by Eikie on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:05 am

zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


No one is disputing that. But when someone is distrusted by many of their peers then the onus is on them to prove they are being truthful.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:10 am

osiris30 wrote:
brocky120 wrote:
From the instagram video, it looks like the plane was either:

A) On fire before the video started
B) Was not on fire before as there is a large explosion mid-air

If it’s B) This would suggest the plane was on fire for about 30 seconds before hitting the ground, and as its a rather shallow descent it wouldn’t have dropped 4,000ft in that time, but what would cause it to be dropping before it exploded in mid air?


It was on fire, just less fire, then the second missile hits it.

In my opinion, that's not a second missile hitting it in the instagram video. It could just be something else catching on fire.

My reasons:
  • We don't see the missile streak like we do in this video.
  • We don't hear a big explosion like in the above video (even accounting for the speed of sound delay).
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:14 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.
 
timh4000
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:17 am

CPHGuard wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
Well. I'm hardly an expert on aircraft major malfunctions and what they can do to a plane. So, I'll be more of in question mode. 1st, has there EVER been a case where an engine explodes for whatever reason and to have it cause this much damage?

I think back at all of the other major engine explosions and while not all of the planes made it down safely, none that I can think of just fell out of the sky in a fireball.


Air France AF 4590 comes to mind, and it was airborne for less than 90 seconds:

https://youtu.be/fjtsbAckbTg?t=74

I have to ask, are you in agreement with me? I would say that the AF4590 further proves the point that even such a massive fire there were still those 90 seconds. Being that AF4590 never got a thousand feet in the air and this latest crash they were at 8 thousand ft. Even if the plane was pointed straight down there would still be ample time to call out a mayday.

Since the very 1st commercial jet airliners went into service in 1952. I've heard of flights before than that but not service. Anyway in the entire history of commercial jet airliners, has there ever once an engine fire (with some altitude) at least a cpl thousand feet ever brought down an airliner creating a massive fireball before the plane even makes contact with the ground.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:19 am

flybucky wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.


I'm of the opinion that the first missile got the attention if the person who filmed the missile strike. They filmed skywards, probably having rheen PS752 hit by the first missile and then co tinued filming.

It was several hours since Iran struck coalition targets and therefore a long time since anything happened. Therefore I don't buy the idea that they had their camera trained at the skies for hours just in case they caught something. Modern phone batteries and memory aren't that conducive to hour after hour of filming and are particularly awful at picking up things in the dark.
 
Interested
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Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:19 am

flybucky wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.


Surely once you've hit it with one missile you don't chase it and wait til near the end and try and hit it again?

I'm assuming like you two missiles initially fired one of which hit the plane
 
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piedmontf284000
Posts: 468
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:21 am

Iran is denying it shot down the airliner. They claim there is no evidence. It appears that the Iranian government is extremely worried that if the missile strike is confirmed to the Iranian public it could have a dramatic impact on public opinion in Iran, who seemed to rally around the killing of Soleimani. The citizens of Iran, knowing that the Iranian military was responsible, could create a lot of problems inside the country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/10/iran-de ... -data.html
 
JayBCN
Posts: 57
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:22 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


No one is disputing that. But when someone is distrusted by many of their peers then the onus is on them to prove they are being truthful.


The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.
Last edited by JayBCN on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:22 am

xmp125a wrote:
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner


xmp125a wrote:
Here about intercepted communications:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... senger-jet

I read the ottawacitizen article. I don't see anything that says there was Iranian chatter that they were aware they downed an airliner.

The closest thing was "The U.S. military also has the capability to intercept communications between Iranian commanders and anti-aircraft missile batteries which would have provided the Pentagon insight into what might have transpired around the time the Ukrainian passenger jet crashed." But that only claims the U.S. has the ability to intercept comms, not that they actually did intercept comms.
 
Alfons
Posts: 310
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:24 am

zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


You are right, but playing smallhead here. There are two components in this situation. The first one you mentioned, a plane crashed. But you forgot to mention the 2nd part, that there is a possibility that the plane has been shot down by the same country the planed crashed. Even if only the 1st part is proven, the combination of both parts asks this country to show responsibility when using a global cooperation, like the air travel. Therefore I can't fully agree to what you say.

Like what Boeing does since today, the best way to save public face is to be honest to yourself. And a country has a lot to loose.
 
aw70
Posts: 142
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:27 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iran is denying it shot down the airliner. They claim there is no evidence. It appears that the Iranian government is extremely worried that if the missile strike is confirmed to the Iranian public it could have a dramatic impact on public opinion in Iran, who seemed to rally around the killing of Soleimani. The citizens of Iran, knowing that the Iranian military was responsible, could create a lot of problems inside the country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/10/iran-de ... -data.html


Precisely this. Let's not forget that there were extensive local anti-government protests last autumn, which the authorities were only able to subdue with considerable difficulty. If their own armed forces, or even worse the actual praetorians of the regime (i.e. the Revolutionary Guards), downed that plane, it might bring people back on the streets in no time. And it might be even harder to subdue them this time round.
 
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journeyperson
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:43 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:28 am

xmp125a wrote:
scbriml wrote:
xmp125a wrote:

USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner


Your post might get deleted if you don't source your facts.


https://youtu.be/zitU1e_waWc?t=110 (CBS newscast video)

additionally:
- US intelligence was talking about missile evidence on the crash site (so that was not internet hoax)

Here about intercepted communications:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... senger-jet


That second link is misleading. What the article means is that US intercepts of communication could support claims - if there are any such communications.
 
JayBCN
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:30 am

Alfons wrote:
zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


You are right, but playing smallhead here. There are two components in this situation. The first one you mentioned, a plane crashed. But you forgot to mention the 2nd part, that there is a possibility that the plane has been shot down by the same country the planed crashed. Even if only the 1st part is proven, the combination of both parts asks this country to show responsibility when using a global cooperation, like the air travel. Therefore I can't fully agree to what you say.

Like what Boeing does since today, the best way to save public face is to be honest to yourself. And a country has a lot to loose.


But then you forget the 3rd part, which is that the US is the party which the country where the plane crashed had a military conflict with and is thus not impartial.
 
zhetenyi1973
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:08 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:32 am

JayBCN wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
zeke wrote:

These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


No one is disputing that. But when someone is distrusted by many of their peers then the onus is on them to prove they are being truthful.


The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.


How easy is to destroy evidence on the recorders? Especially the last few seconds. Is a strong magnet enough?
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2650
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:38 am

JayBCN wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
zeke wrote:

These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


No one is disputing that. But when someone is distrusted by many of their peers then the onus is on them to prove they are being truthful.


The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.


I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence. We know it was shot down. What would Boeing have to be dishonest about in this investigation?
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:40 am

New update from 20 mins ago:

Iran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner that crashed

Iran, which has denied the Boeing 737-800 was downed by a missile, said it could take one or two months to extract information from the voice and flight data recorders. It said it could ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine if it needed help.

Tehran also said the probe might take one or two years.

We prefer to download the black boxes in Iran. But if we see that we can’t do that because the boxes are damaged, then we will seek help,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation, told a news conference in Tehran.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z90RT

Does this mean Iran is backtracking on allowing Ukraine or NTSB from performing the black box download? Maybe they realized that allowing other countries access to the black box first would be a bad idea since it would much almost certainly debunk the mechanical failure theory.

I'm pretty sure they're not going to find any CVR or FDR data that shows the flight encountered mechanical failure or started turning back before the missile hit.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:43 am

flybucky wrote:
New update from 20 mins ago:

Iran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner that crashed

Iran, which has denied the Boeing 737-800 was downed by a missile, said it could take one or two months to extract information from the voice and flight data recorders. It said it could ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine if it needed help.

Tehran also said the probe might take one or two years.

We prefer to download the black boxes in Iran. But if we see that we can’t do that because the boxes are damaged, then we will seek help,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation, told a news conference in Tehran.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z90RT

Does this mean Iran is backtracking on allowing Ukraine or NTSB from performing the black box download? Maybe they realized that allowing other countries access to the black box first would be a bad idea since it would much almost certainly debunk the mechanical failure theory.

I'm pretty sure they're not going to find any CVR or FDR data that shows the flight encountered mechanical failure or started turning back before the missile hit.


Iran had never said they wouldn't perform an investigation themselves. They simply stated that they would provide the evidence to the relevant countries and also allow investigation teams onto the site. Furthermore I don't know whether there was "official" statements from the entity of Iran or just some certain ministers/spokespeople or even just random members of the civil service.
 
Zaf
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:48 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

No one is disputing that. But when someone is distrusted by many of their peers then the onus is on them to prove they are being truthful.


The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.


I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence. We know it was shot down. What would Boeing have to be dishonest about in this investigation?


We assume it was shot down. But we don't know by whom and why. Maybe the plane was behaving suspicious due to technical problems. As you know the 737 series has lot's of problems, pickle fork, bad wiring, longeron fatigue etc...
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19187
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:49 am

airhansa wrote:
Iran had never said they wouldn't perform an investigation themselves. They simply stated that they would provide the evidence to the relevant countries and also allow investigation teams onto the site. Furthermore I don't know whether there was "official" statements from the entity of Iran or just some certain ministers/spokespeople or even just random members of the civil service.


Pretty much the same as any crash discussed here - confusion and misinterpretation of translated statements from people who may or may not be speaking from a position of authority.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:49 am

New video from another angle.

New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash


https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

And another I believe from the south.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1215579987316625409

I was of the opinion that the smaller flash we see before the aircraft strikes the ground is a structural break but I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the wing and fuel tank vapourising but it seems the aircraft struck the ground largely intact. It gives an impression of the vast speed it was going at as it struck the ground.
Last edited by sevenair on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:06 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:54 am

Zaf wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.


I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence. We know it was shot down. What would Boeing have to be dishonest about in this investigation?


We assume it was shot down. But we don't know by whom and why. Maybe the plane was behaving suspicious due to technical problems. As you know the 737 series has lot's of problems, pickle fork, bad wiring, longeron fatigue etc...


Nothing suspicious from the ADS-B data. It flew the same flight profile as the previous days.
 
JayBCN
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:58 am

airhansa wrote:
flybucky wrote:
New update from 20 mins ago:

Iran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner that crashed

Iran, which has denied the Boeing 737-800 was downed by a missile, said it could take one or two months to extract information from the voice and flight data recorders. It said it could ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine if it needed help.

Tehran also said the probe might take one or two years.

We prefer to download the black boxes in Iran. But if we see that we can’t do that because the boxes are damaged, then we will seek help,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation, told a news conference in Tehran.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKBN1Z90RT

Does this mean Iran is backtracking on allowing Ukraine or NTSB from performing the black box download? Maybe they realized that allowing other countries access to the black box first would be a bad idea since it would much almost certainly debunk the mechanical failure theory.

I'm pretty sure they're not going to find any CVR or FDR data that shows the flight encountered mechanical failure or started turning back before the missile hit.


Iran had never said they wouldn't perform an investigation themselves. They simply stated that they would provide the evidence to the relevant countries and also allow investigation teams onto the site. Furthermore I don't know whether there was "official" statements from the entity of Iran or just some certain ministers/spokespeople or even just random members of the civil service.


Exactly! Iran states it would follow protocol, invite the NTSB as an observer and hand over the recorders to Ukraine, the country where the crashed aircraft was registered. The Iranians said they would not turn over the flight recorders to the NTSB and not to Boeing, thus conforming with international rules and protocol.
 
sevenair
Posts: 2959
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2001 7:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 am

Zaf wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

The NTSB is invited by Iran as an observer. The recorders will be turned over to Ukraine. That should be sufficient. Anything else would be inappropriate and against protocol. Boeing has no role to play here and I wouldn’t rate them a trusted party In its current state and in this context.


I'm not sure what you mean by that last sentence. We know it was shot down. What would Boeing have to be dishonest about in this investigation?


We assume it was shot down. But we don't know by whom and why. Maybe the plane was behaving suspicious due to technical problems. As you know the 737 series has lot's of problems, pickle fork, bad wiring, longeron fatigue etc...


Sounds like you're victim blaming. Tech issues or not, no plane should be shot down. As mentioned, the plane seems to be acting perfectly normally until someone shoots at least one missile toward it.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:06 am

washingtonflyer wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
tax1k wrote:
[*]

This is a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I had always thought that Jet A/kerosene wa one of the most flammable things in the world. Is that just not true?


You are correct: That is just not true. \


One of my favorite videos discussing various fuels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nL10C7FSbE


That video is AWESOME. Can't believe the guy has his face so close to this stuff, which might react in an unpredictable way...
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:06 am

sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.

New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash


https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

And another i believe from the south.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1215579987316625409

I was of the opinion that the smaller flash we see before the aircraft strikes the ground is a structural break but I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the wing and fuel tank vapourising but it seems the aircraft struck the ground largely intact.


It could just be the fuel tank. I don't think that there's any reason why the fuel tank wouldn't blow up on a structurally compromised plane engulfed in fire. Though on the second video the fact that the plane is coming towards the camera may have helped the explosion look less extreme as the fire is always getting bigger.
 
User avatar
stasisLAX
Posts: 2968
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:04 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:12 am

From CBSNEWS.com

Witnesses told a CBS reporter they saw a truck and heavy equipment come on Thursday and take away most of the 737s wreckage.

The Iranian government has not released the location that the wreckage was taken.

CBS News film crew is reporting the crash site was large and they were only allowed to view one part of it, but after they visited the crash scene, eyewitnesses told the reporters that larger pieces of the jet's fuselage and cockpit had been removed on large army trucks. The eyewitnesses said removal of both the wreckage and bodies of the victims by Iranian military teams began the day of the crash.
Last edited by stasisLAX on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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