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sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:14 am

airhansa wrote:
sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.

New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash


https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

And another i believe from the south.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1215579987316625409

I was of the opinion that the smaller flash we see before the aircraft strikes the ground is a structural break but I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the wing and fuel tank vapourising but it seems the aircraft struck the ground largely intact.


It could just be the fuel tank. I don't think that there's any reason why the fuel tank wouldn't blow up on a structurally compromised plane engulfed in fire. Though on the second video the fact that the plane is coming towards the camera may have helped the explosion look less extreme as the fire is always getting bigger.


It could be. The aircraft doesn't seem to change speed or trajectory at all so I think it's just fuel releasing.

What an utter nightmare. Flying to high risk destinations with my work really terrifies me specifically for this reason. I feel sorry for the crew who no doubt had concerns but told themselves 'it'll all be alright' just like I tell myself only to be faced with this. It makes me feel sick. And the poor passengers. What a terrifying experience.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:17 am

sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.

New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash


https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

And another i believe from the south.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1215579987316625409

I was of the opinion that the smaller flash we see before the aircraft strikes the ground is a structural break but I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the wing and fuel tank vapourising but it seems the aircraft struck the ground largely intact.

Only the first link is new and show that the aircraft was in fire about 1 minute before the ground impact. It's probable that the recording was motivated by the big flash in the sky when the missile hit the aircraft.
It's maybe a matter of time until a video will be leaked with the missing time between the flash and the start of this new video.

I agree that it's probably the progressive disintegration of the aircraft that explain the different increasing intensity of the fire. I suspect that the missile hit the front avionic compartment (possibly because of the radar) destroying instantaneously all communications and started a fire in the front baggage compartment. Then the fire could have spread progressively more backward with more and more baggage in fire.

Does anyone identified parts of the cockpit in the available photos and video ?
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:24 am

wjcandee wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

You are correct: That is just not true. \


One of my favorite videos discussing various fuels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nL10C7FSbE


That video is AWESOME. Can't believe the guy has his face so close to this stuff, which might react in an unpredictable way...

Quite the contrary, except for the gasoline, the video explain and demonstrate that those stuff react in a very predictable way: difficult to ignite until fine spreaded in some oxidizer.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:24 am

So assuming that the reports that the crash was due to a missile are correct, the next question is why did it happen? I've listed the theories in order of least likely to most likely;

6. Intentional shootdown of the Correct flight.
It is nearly impossible that Iran purposely meant to shoot down a Ukrainian flight consisting mostly of Iranian citizens (147 Iranians. Many may have had dual citizenship.)

5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?

4. Accidental shootdown due to violation of restricted airspace.
This would have been a good theory, except that all the previous flight 752 took similar routes, as well as the previous departures that day. PS752 did not veer off course before the missile strike.

3. Accidental shootdown due to mechanical failure.
Something went wrong with the airplane (e.g. engine) that caught the attention of the AA crew. I think this is doubtful because the video of the missile strike did not show an engine on fire beforehand, or a loss of climb rate.

2. Accidental shootdown due to transponder failure.
One theory is that the ADS-B transponder failed for whatever reason. Without the transponder, the airplane was an unidentified threat and quickly shot down.

1. Accidental shootdown due to SAM crew error under high alert.
The SAM crew screwed up under high alert due to anticipation of U.S. retaliation after the Iraq missile strikes, and shot down the airliner for no valid reason.

Thoughts? Any other theories?
Last edited by flybucky on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:32 am

flybucky wrote:
So assuming that the reports that the crash was due to a missile are correct, the next question is why did it happen? I've listed the theories in order of least likely to most likely;

6. Intentional shootdown of the Correct flight.
It is nearly impossible that Iran purposely meant to shoot down a Ukrainian flight consisting mostly of Iranian citizens (147 Iranians. Many may have had dual citizenship.)

5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?

4. Accidental shootdown due to violation of restricted airspace.
This would have been a good theory, except that all the previous flight 752 took similar routes, as well as the previous departures that day. PS752 did not veer off course before the missile strike.

3. Accidental shootdown due to mechanical failure.
Something went wrong with the airplane (e.g. engine) that caught the attention of the AA crew. I think this is doubtful because the video of the missile strike did not show an engine on fire beforehand, or a loss of climb rate.

2. Accidental shootdown due to transponder failure.
One theory is that the ADS-B transponder failed for whatever reason. Without the transponder, the airplane was an unidentified threat and quickly shot down.

1. Accidental shootdown due to SAM crew error.
The SAM crew just completely screwed up under pressure and shot down an airliner for no valid reason whatsoever.

Thoughts? Any other theories?


I think military/militia on high alert follow the earlier airstrikes thought it was an enemy aircraft on some sort of revenge run, so they shot it down thinking it had attacked Tehran city so they took it down as it was leaving the built up area.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:39 am

sevenair wrote:
I think military/militia on high alert follow the earlier airstrikes thought it was an enemy aircraft on some sort of revenge run, so they shot it down thinking it had attacked Tehran city so they took it down as it was leaving the built up area.

For sure. I would include the "high alert" as part of my #1 theory. I'll edit my post.
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:43 am

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1215433403648135168 says that NTSB has designated an official representative to the investigation. It's got a bit more jargon to explain what's going on, but in short, NTSB is as of now a participant in the investigation and is sending a representative.


The NTSB “participation” under the ICAO Annex is as an observer, the agency doing the investigation will be the CAO.IR. As well as the country of manufacture of the engines and airframe, it is customary for the country of registration to be invited to observe.

Any observer to the investigation is not permitted to comment on the investigation unless expressly authorized by the agency in change. Therefore the news reported what Ukrainian observers saw in the engines I think is bogus.

There is no protocol for the data recorders to be handed over to the manufacturer as has been suggested on this thread numerous times, likewise any refusal to do so would be totally normal, there is a clear conflict of interest for Boeing to have first access to the data. If this incident happened in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Boeing. Likewise if an Airbus had an incident in the US, the data recorders would go to the NTSB, not Airbus. The “hysteria” about the refusal to release them is baseless the procedures being followed are normal.

My guess is the data recorders will be read by the BEA, they have long standing agreement with most agencies in the area to perform that role. How that is typically done is an investigator from the agency doing the investigation will travel with the data recorders to the BEA and remain with them until the data is read, this maintains the evidence chain.

These are long established procedures and guidelines that are internationally agreed.


First of all censor.net.ua has been a very trustworthy news source for many years. They do their job well.

Secondly they are not providing Investigators/Observers conclusions. They have sent their own reporter together with the Ukrainian investigators team, and this reporter, I assume, basically sneaks around, asks everybody questions and makes photos.And this repoorter draw some conclusions based on all the data he could get. Which was posted here several times already - both engines have no signs of fire damage or internal explosion.

Thridly, the reporter has also provided pictures of recovered engines remains that prove his conclusions as well.
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:51 am

flybucky wrote:
So assuming that the reports that the crash was due to a missile are correct, the next question is why did it happen? I've listed the theories in order of least likely to most likely;

6. Intentional shootdown of the Correct flight.
It is nearly impossible that Iran purposely meant to shoot down a Ukrainian flight consisting mostly of Iranian citizens (147 Iranians. Many may have had dual citizenship.)

5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?

4. Accidental shootdown due to violation of restricted airspace.
This would have been a good theory, except that all the previous flight 752 took similar routes, as well as the previous departures that day. PS752 did not veer off course before the missile strike.

3. Accidental shootdown due to mechanical failure.
Something went wrong with the airplane (e.g. engine) that caught the attention of the AA crew. I think this is doubtful because the video of the missile strike did not show an engine on fire beforehand, or a loss of climb rate.

2. Accidental shootdown due to transponder failure.
One theory is that the ADS-B transponder failed for whatever reason. Without the transponder, the airplane was an unidentified threat and quickly shot down.

1. Accidental shootdown due to SAM crew error under high alert.
The SAM crew screwed up under high alert due to anticipation of U.S. retaliation after the Iraq missile strikes, and shot down the airliner for no valid reason.

Thoughts? Any other theories?


I would say your assesment is correct and number #1 on the list is definitely the most likely scenario. I would add to point 5 and 6 - that missile lauch might have been initiated by some insurgent who is opposing the regime to create panic or social unrest.
Also, as far as I remeber, TOR system has some automatic mode where it just shoots down any approaching targets. Don't quote me on this, as it needs to be verified by reading complex documentation. But it could be another explanation that due to bad training the TOR crew was executing some configuration and accidentally enabled the automatic mode. And when missiles started launching they understood that they have screwed up, but it was too late.

EDIT: now that I think about it, I would probably put the accidental automatic mode enablement on TOR as the #1 theory on my list.
Last edited by Daimler on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:55 am

flybucky wrote:
1. Accidental shootdown due to SAM crew error under high alert.
The SAM crew screwed up under high alert due to anticipation of U.S. retaliation after the Iraq missile strikes, and shot down the airliner for no valid reason.


Most likely, and a testament to the Iranian army's unprofessionalism, unpreparedness and ineptitude if you ask me.

How can you possibly post SAMs to defend the city and the airport and not coordinate with the civilian airspace? And if you can't, why wouldn't you just shut down the airspace?

For such a militarized nation on the brink of war, one would have expected better...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:06 pm

We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced. Does that not extend to a basic smart phone and Flight Radar 24? I mean if I had missiles trained at the sky then surely a quick glance to make sure there's no airliners in the vicinity, particularly when I'm close to a busy airport and air corridor.
Last edited by sevenair on Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Shansgonefishin
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:07 pm

With Iran denying they shot anything down, it will be interesting to see what comes of the Black Box’s. They don’t have a choice but to hand them over for not wanting to look guilty, you’d have to think either way they will be handed over in a state beyond deciphering... at least they probably hope.

I’m not an expert in any way shape or form, but when was the last time a typically reliable 737 just “blew up” so to speak?
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:10 pm

gloom wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
There’s avenger shorad systems


It's not exactly the same.

Avenger is bulit to launch manpad-like missiles on point protection. So basically "get helos out" system, with more rockets available.

Tor was designed to withstand coordinated attacks on important objects. It includes missile/bomb threat defense, and missile is much more capable (range/altitude is much higher). I was looking for US based system, but none is designed to do what Russians did. Perhaps no need to, since army-level systems were more capable and more mobile than russian counterparts.

Cheers,
Adam


Yeah Russia has a lot more interest in Sam systems than the West does since their air Force is so far behind. There's no real Western equivalent to tor and pantsir.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:12 pm

zeke wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
If they hold back on recorders, I think the west will stick to their own conclusions, and we know what they are right now.


These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


NO. I meant "hold back the recorder DATA". I apologize. In any case, recorder will have to be read at lab with proper equipment, but I am pretty sure NTSB is not only one who can read 737-800 FDR/CVR, right? At some point, the recorder would be read and evaluated and Iranians will have to present its findings.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:13 pm

There's nothing left for the foreign investigators to investigate.

CBS crew just visited the #Ukrainian airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday - say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.
https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720
 
Alfons
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:14 pm

JayBCN wrote:
Alfons wrote:
zeke wrote:

These demands for the CVR FDR to be handed over have to stop.

Under international agreement (which includes the USA) the investigation is performed by the country where the accident occurred.


You are right, but playing smallhead here. There are two components in this situation. The first one you mentioned, a plane crashed. But you forgot to mention the 2nd part, that there is a possibility that the plane has been shot down by the same country the planed crashed. Even if only the 1st part is proven, the combination of both parts asks this country to show responsibility when using a global cooperation, like the air travel. Therefore I can't fully agree to what you say.

Like what Boeing does since today, the best way to save public face is to be honest to yourself. And a country has a lot to loose.


But then you forget the 3rd part, which is that the US is the party which the country where the plane crashed had a military conflict with and is thus not impartial.


Nice try. But the 3rd part didn't crash the plane, not working.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:16 pm

flybucky wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner

This is the first I've heard about the Iranian chatter that they were aware they downed an airliner. Is there a source for this?


Two US government sources told The Daily Beast that intelligence intercepts showed that Iran quickly realized that it had shot down the plane, which it knew should not have been a military target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inte ... ast-2020-1
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:22 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Two US government sources told The Daily Beast that intelligence intercepts showed that Iran quickly realized that it had shot down the plane, which it knew should not have been a military target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inte ... ast-2020-1

Thank you.

Here's the original source from Daily Beast:

The U.S. government has intelligence indicating that Iranians quickly learned they’d made a mistake by downing the plane, according to two U.S. government officials. That includes intercepts indicating that civil aviation officials in Iran knew the plane should not have been a military target, the sources said.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-p ... s-suspects
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:25 pm

flybucky wrote:
There's nothing left for the foreign investigators to investigate.

CBS crew just visited the #Ukrainian airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday - say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.
https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720


So deny it was shot down, completely taint the scene to make a proper investigation nearly impossible, and hope there's nothing of note on the CVR.
 
Zeppi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:46 pm

sevenair wrote:
We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced.

Well, those amazingly well educated iranians were those that were on that plane, not those on the ground controlling the TOR. Iran has been suffering massive brain drain for decades, so what is now left in Iran is mostly still those highly attached to their tradition, superstition and religion. Everyone who could get the hell out to lead a life free of this BS already has done so. The only few left behind are those who fear that their families might be targeted by the seppa and basiji if they leave, there are even rules in place in Iran that only a limited number of family members can visit relatives abroad at the same time. Plenty of the asylum seekers we currently still receive in Europe are actually Iranians. My wife is half Iranian, her mom managed to escape in the early 80s all by herself, abandoning her entire (very traditional and religious) family. Only few people have the guts to do that, and even if they do, wealthy families will often come after them to "restore family honor". It's also very interesting to listen to the stories of iranian students, they all paint the same picture. Those that still have family in Iran keep a very low profile, even if they are totally against the mullah regime. You never know who might be listening.
So yes, while Iran may have gained some wealth and a better standard of living than many other places in the ME through oil money, at the core and cross section of their demography they are still a rather primitive people, whose lives are dominated by religion, tradition and superstition. And they live a lot in the past, heck, some still hold grudges against Mongolia for the invasion of the Persian Empire in 1219. It's also why the Iranian regime will never admit to shooting down that 737, it's all about saving face and maintaining "honor", even if the evidence is straight in their face.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:01 pm

xmp125a wrote:
flybucky wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
USA intelligence claims 2 missiles were launched. They independently verified the missile theory by detecting:

- 2 missile launches at that time slot
- tracking radar on for a short period in that time slot
- intercepted iranian chatter over comms (later) that they were aware that they downed an airliner

This is the first I've heard about the Iranian chatter that they were aware they downed an airliner. Is there a source for this?


Two US government sources told The Daily Beast that intelligence intercepts showed that Iran quickly realized that it had shot down the plane, which it knew should not have been a military target.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inte ... ast-2020-1


This same type of intel was pretty instrumental in MH17.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:05 pm

sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.
New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:
Image
Image
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
JayBCN
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:07 pm

Alfons wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
Alfons wrote:

You are right, but playing smallhead here. There are two components in this situation. The first one you mentioned, a plane crashed. But you forgot to mention the 2nd part, that there is a possibility that the plane has been shot down by the same country the planed crashed. Even if only the 1st part is proven, the combination of both parts asks this country to show responsibility when using a global cooperation, like the air travel. Therefore I can't fully agree to what you say.

Like what Boeing does since today, the best way to save public face is to be honest to yourself. And a country has a lot to loose.


But then you forget the 3rd part, which is that the US is the party which the country where the plane crashed had a military conflict with and is thus not impartial.


Nice try. But the 3rd part didn't crash the plane, not working.


We do not know who crashed the plane. Or let me be more precise: there is no consensus and a lack of knowledge for the relevant audience on who intended and/or executed the shoot down. That is why we need a credible investigation.

There are countries that are further removed from the conflict and/or closer to the accident than the US. Canada, SwedenFrance, Germany come to mind.

I am still puzzled why there seems to be an obsession by some that see a front row seat in the investigation for US institutions or companies. There are no US fatalities, neither destination or origin of the flight is in the USA and the plane was registered outside the USA. The NTSB of the US will have an opportunity to be an observer to the investigation.
Last edited by JayBCN on Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
chicawgo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:10 pm

xmp125a wrote:
chicawgo wrote:

I actually don't think it's a crazy possibility that it was an actor external to Iran. Who knows? Systems could have been hacked. Or as you said, perhaps there are Russians with control over artillery. There's a much greater chance of these being the case than there ever was of this being a mechanical problem. All that is clear now is that it was a missile. I'm not ready to say it was definitely Iran.


Trigger happy operator/local commander is definitely the most plausible explanation. You actually don't need anything other given the circumstances. It is quite plausible that the members of the military who manned air defense batteries were under immense stress. We know how US attacks work (and if anybody didn't, the takeout of that iranian general serves as a reminder). Basically, if you are targeted, you are dead a few seconds after being aware that something is amiss. And that was 1 hour after Iran rained missiles on US bases (now we know there were basically 0 fatalities due to US intelligence which basically listens to all Iran military comms), but at the time iranian air defence crews assumed (even more with all the propaganda from Iranian government) that they just killed hundreds of US soldiers and that US is fuming and that the whole wrath of Uncle Sam is going down on them. And they could reasonably assume that US will target military sites first, with air defence installations first of the first.

So imagine being an iranian soldier or local commander in charge of SA-15 system. First incoming strike would probably target you, so you can expect no warning whatsoever. You know that US will send either missiles or stealth bombers. I don't know who mans these systems, but if these were reservists due to escalation of tension, then the pressure would be absolutely crazy. Yesterday you went about your business, got to work, be with your family, today you are sitting duck to US stealth bomber or Tomahawk missile. So your only hope to see family the next day is to shoot down anything before it kills you.


I don’t disagree with anything you said. If you read my post I simply was saying that theres still a possibility of more to the story than that. That’s all I’m saying.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:15 pm

ORDfan wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:

I will believe it when I see it. Iran will never give up the CVR even now that it’s pretty clear they shot this aircraft down. Even if by accident.


NTSB may get a digital/paper copy from Iran after BEA extracts. Most important thing is access to debris and able to perform tests on debris. I doubt NTSB/FBI will have direct access. Again has to depend on a third party.


Even still, I'm really surprised by the turn of events with the NTSB now joining. Are the rep's going to be able to travel to Iran?

It seems very unlikely that that Iran would invite and agree to the NTSB joining, if in fact, they did unfortunately shoot the plane down by accident. Why on earth would they effectively allow the NTSB to prove as such, if it is true? It seems to me, perhaps, maybe they don't have anything to hide?


Most of the victims are Iranian and Canadian(of Irani origin??). I don't think anyone blaming Iran's government. This is either a air defense system failure or rogue element infiltration It is in Iran's interest to identify and resolve the issue. America/NTSB has no vested interest to show bias.

Countries pay big money for sophisticated air defense system, sophistication doesn't means just targeting the foe, identifying and saving friends is a major part of it.

BTW, this happened 900km away from other events.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:15 pm

I saw a video on the midday news of French channel France 2, the crash site is full of small debris, but no big piece anymore, no engine, no fuselage part...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
planecane
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:19 pm

sevenair wrote:
We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced. Does that not extend to a basic smart phone and Flight Radar 24? I mean if I had missiles trained at the sky then surely a quick glance to make sure there's no airliners in the vicinity, particularly when I'm close to a busy airport and air corridor.


Military procedures don't involve looking at FR24 on your smart phone.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:21 pm

flybucky wrote:
There's nothing left for the foreign investigators to investigate.

CBS crew just visited the #Ukrainian airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday - say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.
https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720


Well, I assume it does not help the investigation if pieces are left there for a long time, so certainly they have to be removed, catalogued and possibly reconstructed. Does anybody have an estimate how quickly are aircraft parts removed when there is an accident on easily accessible terrain in western countries? I also assume that there is not more to do on site than pick up the human remains, take many pictures, possibly measurements (which could be done in a day or two, as ukrainian representative is already there, possibly others too) and then remove the debris to the hangar as quickly as possible.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:23 pm

planecane wrote:
sevenair wrote:
We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced. Does that not extend to a basic smart phone and Flight Radar 24? I mean if I had missiles trained at the sky then surely a quick glance to make sure there's no airliners in the vicinity, particularly when I'm close to a busy airport and air corridor.


Military procedures don't involve looking at FR24 on your smart phone.


I was also triggered by that suggestion, but there must be a sad state of military that they shoot down an airliner, when everyone has a smartphone and ADS-B is widespread. Totally unlike a decade or two ago.
 
rrlopes
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:24 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:

BTW, this happened 900km away from other events.


While that is true, I think it's safe to expect that Iranian air defenses around Tehran (and elsewhere) would be in high alert merely hours after they launched a missile attack against the US.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:27 pm

Aesma wrote:
I saw a video on the midday news of French channel France 2, the crash site is full of small debris, but no big piece anymore, no engine, no fuselage part...

While there are a lot of very small debris, the 2 engines was found and inspected by Ukraine investigators that wrote there are without trace of inflight burn. Small parts of the fuselages, small parts of the main wings, the nose gear structure, a big chunk of the horizontal stabilizer with the trim arm and the APU still attached, and the vertical stabilizer are all identifiable on the available photos and videos of the crash site.

I failed to identify any part of the cockpit.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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zeke
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:31 pm

Has there been any reports of funerals or repatriation of remains.

Any news on how many passengers and crew that have been identified?

The normal Islamic custom would be for a burial within 24 hrs.
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Northpole
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:37 pm

The Swedish Foreign Minister just made a statement that " 17 persons living in Sweden were on board the plane " ( the previous indication was 10 persons )
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:37 pm

I feel very sorry for the Iranian people, they seem to be very good people but their government fails them even at saying basic truths such as a cause of a passenger flight crash.

The international community seems to know how is the Iranian SOP of covering up and lying about mostly anything, can't understand how they trusted the Iranians with not getting a nuclear bomb, when clearly they can't even be trusted in conducting a crash investigation of a civil airliner properly.

How can any airline 'international' airline continue flying to a country even using their airspace when they shoot down an aircraft in flight and immediately claim it was a 'mechanical failure'. I would avoid Iranian airspace like the plague, now no one is safe. They should have just come out and admitted they made a mistake.

Continuously covering this up and denying it will make it seem as this was intentional.

I am also shocked at how some people were quick to accept that this was not a shot down, when this exactly happens on the day Iran attacked US air bases and were expecting a retaliation by the US. Too much coincidence. Also that 'earthquake' near a Nuclear facility all of this happening in small time frame. The Iranian regime is very weak, and this crash will expose their further weakness.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:44 pm

zeke wrote:
Has there been any reports of funerals or repatriation of remains.

Any news on how many passengers and crew that have been identified?

The normal Islamic custom would be for a burial within 24 hrs.

It's probably impossible to formally identify all that victims within 24 hours. All will require DNA analysis comparison with relatives to be formally identified. Would probably take a long time to be completed rigorously.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
theaviator380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:45 pm

Is it distant possibility that military could have requested a curfew for some reason for a short window due some intel or threat and despite of that because of some sort of miscommunication ATC still allowed this flight to take off? Military then could have been under stress assuming this is enemy aircraft? failed to ID it in rush and stress and shot it down?

Just trying to judge various possibilities and this one came to my mind.
 
theaviator380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:46 pm

zeke wrote:
Has there been any reports of funerals or repatriation of remains.

Any news on how many passengers and crew that have been identified?

The normal Islamic custom would be for a burial within 24 hrs.



I take knowing the nature of this accident, there could be extensive postmortem? which could take a while.
 
airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:51 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
Is it distant possibility that military could have requested a curfew for some reason for a short window due some intel or threat and despite of that because of some sort of miscommunication ATC still allowed this flight to take off? Military then could have been under stress assuming this is enemy aircraft? failed to ID it in rush and stress and shot it down?

Just trying to judge various possibilities and this one came to my mind.


My view is that some aspect of these missile systems are automated. For example, the Iron Dome in Israel is somewhat automated (it's considered an automatic system according to what I read on Google) and has misfired on occasions. It's could be something gone wrong with the automation.

Edit: for example, here's a time the rockets were fired in Israel in response to gun fire as the system was on high-sensitivity mode - http://www.timesofisrael.com/1-million- ... nsitivity/
 
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Bigfootz67
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:56 pm

xmp125a wrote:
planecane wrote:
sevenair wrote:
We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced. Does that not extend to a basic smart phone and Flight Radar 24? I mean if I had missiles trained at the sky then surely a quick glance to make sure there's no airliners in the vicinity, particularly when I'm close to a busy airport and air corridor.


Military procedures don't involve looking at FR24 on your smart phone.


I was also triggered by that suggestion, but there must be a sad state of military that they shoot down an airliner, when everyone has a smartphone and ADS-B is widespread. Totally unlike a decade or two ago.


I would hate to imagine the discipline military personnel in Iran would face if found to be surfing the internet on their smartphones instead of operating their SAM during a time of heightened alert.
 
theaviator380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:08 pm

airhansa wrote:
theaviator380 wrote:
Is it distant possibility that military could have requested a curfew for some reason for a short window due some intel or threat and despite of that because of some sort of miscommunication ATC still allowed this flight to take off? Military then could have been under stress assuming this is enemy aircraft? failed to ID it in rush and stress and shot it down?

Just trying to judge various possibilities and this one came to my mind.


My view is that some aspect of these missile systems are automated. For example, the Iron Dome in Israel is somewhat automated (it's considered an automatic system according to what I read on Google) and has misfired on occasions. It's could be something gone wrong with the automation.

Edit: for example, here's a time the rockets were fired in Israel in response to gun fire as the system was on high-sensitivity mode - http://www.timesofisrael.com/1-million- ... nsitivity/


Interesting that....wasn't aware. Thanks for sharing.
 
JayBCN
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:15 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I feel very sorry for the Iranian people, they seem to be very good people but their government fails them even at saying basic truths such as a cause of a passenger flight crash.

The international community seems to know how is the Iranian SOP of covering up and lying about mostly anything, can't understand how they trusted the Iranians with not getting a nuclear bomb, when clearly they can't even be trusted in conducting a crash investigation of a civil airliner properly.

How can any airline 'international' airline continue flying to a country even using their airspace when they shoot down an aircraft in flight and immediately claim it was a 'mechanical failure'. I would avoid Iranian airspace like the plague, now no one is safe. They should have just come out and admitted they made a mistake.

Continuously covering this up and denying it will make it seem as this was intentional.

I am also shocked at how some people were quick to accept that this was not a shot down, when this exactly happens on the day Iran attacked US air bases and were expecting a retaliation by the US. Too much coincidence. Also that 'earthquake' near a Nuclear facility all of this happening in small time frame. The Iranian regime is very weak, and this crash will expose their further weakness.


I can think of more than one country where the people are good people, but their government fails them, lies to them, or even is involved in criminal activity - even among anglophile Western democracies.

And following your logic airlines would have to stop overflying Russia too.
Last edited by JayBCN on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:18 pm

xmp125a wrote:
zkojq wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
Look no further than MH17.

The operators of the BUK that shot down MH17 were a bunch of lowly rebels who IIRC had no training on the equipment whatsoever (it was just mysteriously "given" to them by Russia). Hence for them shooting down a civilian target was probably inevitable given that the airspace was only closed below FL330. One would think that the Iranians would have their best and brightest AA team on the unit which was "protecting" their capital.


Why you assume that? There was massive escalation of tensions and it is possible reserve units of the military were called in. I don't know exactly how the Iranian military operates, but given the estimates that it is one of the largest forces in region, it is certainly not 100% professional, but relying on reservists as well.

And who says that missile system protected very valuable targets? SA-15 is short to medium range, not all that useful to defend yourself from the high flying bombers.

Why have the system in Tehran then?


TTailedTiger wrote:
What would Boeing have to be dishonest about in this investigation?


Boeing's biggest customer isn't Emirates, it isn't American or United and it isn't Ryanair. Boeing's biggest customer by far is the Pentagon who is by no means a neutral party in this.

stasisLAX wrote:
From CBSNEWS.com

Witnesses told a CBS reporter they saw a truck and heavy equipment come on Thursday and take away most of the 737s wreckage.

The Iranian government has not released the location that the wreckage was taken.

CBS News film crew is reporting the crash site was large and they were only allowed to view one part of it, but after they visited the crash scene, eyewitnesses told the reporters that larger pieces of the jet's fuselage and cockpit had been removed on large army trucks. The eyewitnesses said removal of both the wreckage and bodies of the victims by Iranian military teams began the day of the crash.


flybucky wrote:
There's nothing left for the foreign investigators to investigate.

CBS crew just visited the #Ukrainian airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday - say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.
https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720



This is all fairly standard stuff. Once investigators have thoroughly canvassed the site, taken thousands of photographs and removed the bodies, off course the wreckage is going to be removed and put into storage for further investigation. Usually the investigators will put the pieces back together in a warehouse somewhere. Unless the aircraft is in a difficult place to get to (MH370 in a warzone, US1549 needing to be fished out of the river etc) it will be removed fairly promptly. How long do you expect it to be left there

sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.

New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash


https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

And another I believe from the south.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1215579987316625409


Two thoughts about that: 1) the trajectory of the aircraft prior to impact is a lot shallower than what other videos seem to have shown 2) why are so many people filming air from a long way away at ~0500 in the morning whilst driving?

flybucky wrote:
5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?
Thoughts? Any other theories?

Why do you think they were trying to shoot down a commercial flight? You don't think that maybe they were trying to shoot down a military flight? :scratchchin:

xmp125a wrote:
Does anybody have an estimate how quickly are aircraft parts removed when there is an accident on easily accessible terrain in western countries?


IIRC US1549 was lifted out of the water on the night following the accident that's (~12 hours) and put on a barge the following day.

Bits of ET302 were removed the day after the accident.

FZ981 was removed 48 hours after.
First to fly the 787-9
 
11C
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:21 pm

JayBCN wrote:
Alfons wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

But then you forget the 3rd part, which is that the US is the party which the country where the plane crashed had a military conflict with and is thus not impartial.


Nice try. But the 3rd part didn't crash the plane, not working.


We do not know who crashed the plane. Or let me be more precise: there is no consensus and a lack of knowledge for the relevant audience on who intended and/or executed the shoot down. That is why we need a credible investigation.

There are countries that are further removed from the conflict and/or closer to the accident than the US. Canada, SwedenFrance, Germany come to mind.

I am still puzzled why there seems to be an obsession by some that see a front row seat in the investigation for US institutions or companies. There are no US fatalities, neither destination or origin of the flight is in the USA and the plane was registered outside the USA. The NTSB of the US will have an opportunity to be an observer to the investigation.


It’s pretty obvious why Boeing would want to be a party to the investigation, and their vested interest is also quite obvious. Remember Egyptair? Egypt still maintains the position that the aircraft had a technical fault, even though the CVR tapes indicated that the aircraft was deliberately crashed.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:24 pm

There are a lot of variables that effect how quickly crash wreckage is removed eg how secure the site is, or how disruptive the wreckage is to the area. You can’t give a definitive time on when it is appropriate to remove wreckage since it is case by case dependent.

What is important is how the wreckage is removed, eg whether possible evidence is properly documented in situ if possible and removed so as to preserve evidence as much as possible.
 
JayBCN
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:32 pm

11C wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
Alfons wrote:

Nice try. But the 3rd part didn't crash the plane, not working.


We do not know who crashed the plane. Or let me be more precise: there is no consensus and a lack of knowledge for the relevant audience on who intended and/or executed the shoot down. That is why we need a credible investigation.

There are countries that are further removed from the conflict and/or closer to the accident than the US. Canada, SwedenFrance, Germany come to mind.

I am still puzzled why there seems to be an obsession by some that see a front row seat in the investigation for US institutions or companies. There are no US fatalities, neither destination or origin of the flight is in the USA and the plane was registered outside the USA. The NTSB of the US will have an opportunity to be an observer to the investigation.


It’s pretty obvious why Boeing would want to be a party to the investigation, and their vested interest is also quite obvious. Remember Egyptair? Egypt still maintains the position that the aircraft had a technical fault, even though the CVR tapes indicated that the aircraft was deliberately crashed.


Thanks, additionally the US is party to the conflict that has led to this tragedy/criminal act, and Boeing’s largest customer is indeed the Pentagon.
Last edited by JayBCN on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:38 pm

Transportstyrelsen temporarily stops Iran Air's flights between Iran and Sweden due to questions regarding the aviation safety in Iran. https://transportstyrelsen.se/sv/Nyhets ... till-iran/ (In Swedish)
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:39 pm

JayBCN wrote:
11C wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

We do not know who crashed the plane. Or let me be more precise: there is no consensus and a lack of knowledge for the relevant audience on who intended and/or executed the shoot down. That is why we need a credible investigation.

There are countries that are further removed from the conflict and/or closer to the accident than the US. Canada, SwedenFrance, Germany come to mind.

I am still puzzled why there seems to be an obsession by some that see a front row seat in the investigation for US institutions or companies. There are no US fatalities, neither destination or origin of the flight is in the USA and the plane was registered outside the USA. The NTSB of the US will have an opportunity to be an observer to the investigation.


Thanks, additionally the US is party to the conflict that has led to this tragedy/criminal act, and Boeing’s largest customer is indeed the Pentagon..


Thanks, and of course the US is party to the conflict that has led to this tragedy or criminal act, and Boeing’s largest customer is indeed the Pentagon.


Why is the US party to this? this happened inside Iran, by Iranians. Why all of the sudden the US government has any fault on this?

Come on folks lets be rational here, so if IR655 is was shot down by the US, the Iranian government is also culpable?

Lets stop thinking the Iranian Gvt is innocent and play nice. They keep denying everything here.
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:40 pm

I was wondering if the Iranians were targeting something else in the area (Drone trying to hide in amongst civilian traffic for example) and hit the civilian plane instead.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:52 pm

Bigfootz67 wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
planecane wrote:

Military procedures don't involve looking at FR24 on your smart phone.


I was also triggered by that suggestion, but there must be a sad state of military that they shoot down an airliner, when everyone has a smartphone and ADS-B is widespread. Totally unlike a decade or two ago.


I would hate to imagine the discipline military personnel in Iran would face if found to be surfing the internet on their smartphones instead of operating their SAM during a time of heightened alert.


Of course. I imagine they have some kind of AA command & control centre for Teheran, no? I assume that command to fire comes from there. And there I would assume, some kind of ADS-B aggregator would come handy... whether it is local ADS-B receiver or a website...

Hopefully the decision to fire deadly missile is not something a grunt laying in the ditch can take on their own...
 
Elementalism
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:53 pm

flybucky wrote:
So assuming that the reports that the crash was due to a missile are correct, the next question is why did it happen? I've listed the theories in order of least likely to most likely;

6. Intentional shootdown of the Correct flight.
It is nearly impossible that Iran purposely meant to shoot down a Ukrainian flight consisting mostly of Iranian citizens (147 Iranians. Many may have had dual citizenship.)

5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?

4. Accidental shootdown due to violation of restricted airspace.
This would have been a good theory, except that all the previous flight 752 took similar routes, as well as the previous departures that day. PS752 did not veer off course before the missile strike.

3. Accidental shootdown due to mechanical failure.
Something went wrong with the airplane (e.g. engine) that caught the attention of the AA crew. I think this is doubtful because the video of the missile strike did not show an engine on fire beforehand, or a loss of climb rate.

2. Accidental shootdown due to transponder failure.
One theory is that the ADS-B transponder failed for whatever reason. Without the transponder, the airplane was an unidentified threat and quickly shot down.

1. Accidental shootdown due to SAM crew error under high alert.
The SAM crew screwed up under high alert due to anticipation of U.S. retaliation after the Iraq missile strikes, and shot down the airliner for no valid reason.

Thoughts? Any other theories?


I'd go with #1.
 
SamH123
Posts: 22
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:54 pm

How many airlines ceased operations over Iran in the hours after the missile strike?
When I read how a shoot down makes sense because the military would be so on edge about a possible attack it seems so sad that all airliners were still happy to fly

Even just from the Soleimani assassination airlines should have maybe reviewed their travel in the area
Last edited by SamH123 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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