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cuban8
Posts: 253
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:51 pm

I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.
When business goes to hell, you get rid of three things. Your private jet, your yacht and your mistress..........and most importantly in that order.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:53 pm

cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


So multiple video evidence is not sufficient for you? videos which appear to be made in Iran not in Western countries.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
11C
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:53 pm

airhansa wrote:
bmartino99 wrote:
Seeing as the US and Canada both have intelligence pointing to a missile, I'd imagine Russia and China potentially have similar information. Iran would have little choice but to acknowledge the accidental downing of the plane if one of Russia or China release intelligence indicating missile use. Any chance they would release such information?


I actually think that these incidents would be caught by openly available civilian satellites - and hence they'd be visible to even small intelligence agencies let alone the likes of the UK or France (and India). I don't consider Russia doing such a thing since allies are important to it. China may do only if it sees value in supporting Chinese growth.

India might be in a good position to take a stance on this. It's historically a non-aligned country and now it's seeking to be a multi-aligned country. It's history of providing moral/social support to all sides might make it a good candidate to release information on a geopolitical that is viewed by both sides as seeking justice.

http://www.businesstoday.in/current/wor ... 93361.html


As pointed out by others, commercial satellites are launched to make money. Missile launch detection, and especially in a specific country is a military mission, not a commercially viable mission for a civilian satellite. And if you don’t think Russia spies on, or monitors its “allies” I suggest you do some reading on the subject. You will find plenty of evidence that virtually all countries with sufficient resources spy on each other, allies are not exempt. In any case, it sure looks like an SA-15 seeker head in the ditch. If that was faked, it’s right up there with the LAPD pre-planting blood evidence at OJ’s house. Not likely. The actions of the Iranian government since the crash certainly are consistent with an uncoordinated response in the first hours, followed by a more coordinated, consistent message. In other words, after screwing up, and shooting down a jetliner, their first response was to deny, obfuscate, blame others. It reeks of guilt. The initial response, as others have noted, was similar by the US government when we shot down an airliner. The big difference ultimately will be that the US came clean. I’m not sure if a weak, totalitarian, religious regime can afford to do the same. But, we shall see.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:54 pm

JayBCN wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

Thanks, additionally the US is party to the conflict that has led to this tragedy/criminal act, and Boeing’s largest customer is indeed the Pentagon.


The only thing that led to this tragedy is somebody firing a missile towards a civilian plane (according to what we know/are told). Keep US out of this unless you got proof they did something.
Everything else is meaningless considering that nothing was happening in this region.


I disagree, and believe that a whole sequence of events - some driven entirely by the US government - has led to this tragedy. But that is a political discussion.

But back to civil aviation. The point of my recent postings is that the US has no front row seat in the accident investigations. There seems to be an obsession by some in this forum that the NTSB or Boeing should be involved in a lead role despite what international protocol states. I am glad that we seem to agree that the US should stay in the background and only contribute when requested to do so.


It's a US-made aircraft. By international regulation, the US has a seat at the table.

And I'm sorry, but the NTSB has an unimpeached reputation for integrity. Other governments have bent their accident investigations in years past to suit politics (e.g., the Egyptair pilot suicide). The NTSB has not.

You are asking people to trust the same government that told its people that scores of Americans and tons of weapons were hit in their retaliatory missile strikes. They are agnostic as to the truth.

In this case, I think what people want is an objective observer with excellent analytical tools and expertise, one without a dog in the fight. The Dutch have in the past stepped up in this role. Obviously, the French BEA and British AIB also have sterling reputations for integrity.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:54 pm

flybucky wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.


Thanks for the link, that was the first I had heard of a second missile
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
southsidesilver
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm

cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


Lets say they provide some sort of satellite image showing the heat trace or track from the missile.
I bet most people would just say it was fake.

I'm no expert, but I get the feeling whatever they would show, people would say its fake or not real.
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 309
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:00 pm

southsidesilver wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


Lets say they provide some sort of satellite image showing the heat trace or track from the missile.
I bet most people would just say it was fake.

I'm no expert, but I get the feeling whatever they would show, people would say its fake or not real.


It's also possible that such proof would demonstrate technological abilities we have that we don't want to publicize.

Tracking ballistic missiles with spy planes and satellites isn't exactly new technology - we've been doing it for decades.
 
11C
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:01 pm

wjcandee wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

The only thing that led to this tragedy is somebody firing a missile towards a civilian plane (according to what we know/are told). Keep US out of this unless you got proof they did something.
Everything else is meaningless considering that nothing was happening in this region.


I disagree, and believe that a whole sequence of events - some driven entirely by the US government - has led to this tragedy. But that is a political discussion.

But back to civil aviation. The point of my recent postings is that the US has no front row seat in the accident investigations. There seems to be an obsession by some in this forum that the NTSB or Boeing should be involved in a lead role despite what international protocol states. I am glad that we seem to agree that the US should stay in the background and only contribute when requested to do so.


It's a US-made aircraft. By international regulation, the US has a seat at the table.

And I'm sorry, but the NTSB has an unimpeached reputation for integrity. Other governments have bent their accident investigations in years past to suit politics (e.g., the Egyptair pilot suicide). The NTSB has not.

You are asking people to trust the same government that told its people that scores of Americans and tons of weapons were hit in their retaliatory missile strikes. They are agnostic as to the truth.

In this case, I think what people want is an objective observer with excellent analytical tools and expertise, one without a dog in the fight. The Dutch have in the past stepped up in this role. Obviously, the French BEA and British AIB also have sterling reputations for integrity.


Good points, damn you for introducing logic! Seriously, these are points everyone should be considering. Only time will tell how this plays out. I’d hate to be the Iranian guy responsible for their PR on this.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:07 pm

According to international journalists who have visited the crash site, the place has now been cleared of wreckage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer/ ... 3961630720

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:10 pm

bmartino99 wrote:
Seeing as the US and Canada both have intelligence pointing to a missile, I'd imagine Russia and China potentially have similar information. Iran would have little choice but to acknowledge the accidental downing of the plane if one of Russia or China release intelligence indicating missile use. Any chance they would release such information?

China is not going to meddle in other countries' affairs if it doesn't concern them directly
 
southsidesilver
Posts: 98
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:16 pm

Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:17 pm

cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


There's much more evidence to date that it was an external issue that caused it to go down than an internal mechanical problem
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:20 pm

southsidesilver wrote:
Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?

Apparently all the wreckage has already been removed from the crash site
Last edited by kennethP3 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
cpd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:20 pm

southsidesilver wrote:
Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?


Seems that way. All cleared away, nothing to see here.

Speaks of a cover up to me.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:23 pm

ptwings wrote:
The Iranian military was so apprehensive about the threat of an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear installations in 2007 and 2008 that it mistakenly fired on civilian airliners and, in one instance, on one of its own military aircraft, according to classified American intelligence reports. The civilian planes were fired on by surface-to-air missiles and antiaircraft batteries

Yikes, so they were just super lucky that all of them missed?
 
southsidesilver
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:23 pm

cpd wrote:
southsidesilver wrote:
Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?


Seems that way. All cleared away, nothing to see here.

Speaks of a cover up to me.


I did see another source that said the Ukraine investigators have been told where it was all moved to and will be allowed to inspect it.

But its still odd to leave the area where the plane crashed, even though they picked up parts just as it is.
There is still loads of smaller items there and little bits.
I make videos about my airplane travels.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:26 pm

flybucky wrote:
ptwings wrote:
The Iranian military was so apprehensive about the threat of an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear installations in 2007 and 2008 that it mistakenly fired on civilian airliners and, in one instance, on one of its own military aircraft, according to classified American intelligence reports. The civilian planes were fired on by surface-to-air missiles and antiaircraft batteries

Yikes, so they were just super lucky that all of them missed?

From the article:

The combination of heightened vigilance and poor command and control led to series of mistakes, according to a highly classified 2008 Pentagon report on “Operational Mishaps by Air Defense Units.”

In June 2007, the report noted, a Revolutionary Guards air defense unit fired a TOR-M1 surface-to-air missile at a civilian airliner. In May 2008, an antiaircraft battery fired on an Iranian reconnaissance drone and a civilian airliner. That same month, an antiaircraft battery fired on an Iranian F-14 fighter jet.


TOR-M1 being the same missile that apparently has been used here
Last edited by kennethP3 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
cpd
Posts: 6357
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:26 pm

southsidesilver wrote:
cpd wrote:
southsidesilver wrote:
Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?


Seems that way. All cleared away, nothing to see here.

Speaks of a cover up to me.


I did see another source that said the Ukraine investigators have been told where it was all moved to and will be allowed to inspect it.

But its still odd to leave the area where the plane crashed, even though they picked up parts just as it is.
There is still loads of smaller items there and little bits.


I agree, I would have expected that everything is left in place and guarded until all the investigators from everywhere have looked at it.

I think we can be pretty sure anyway that it wasn’t some technical fault with the aircraft. It was obviously shot down likely in error.
Last edited by cpd on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:27 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
You think civilian satellites are designed to/capable of detecting small missile launches?

Probably not the heat signature directly, but apparently you can use publicly available satellite data to pinpoint missile systems in real-time based on their radar signal.

An Isreali researcher working with publicly accessible data sourced through the European Space Agency has discovered that certain types of military radar systems are identifiable through commercial satellite data sets. As a result, civilian organizations using satellite-based synthetic aperture radar systems can pinpoint the exact locations of American-made Patriot missile systems in near real-time, anywhere in the world.

https://sofrep.com/news/israeli-researc ... lite-data/
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:28 pm

cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.

What kind of proof would satisfy you?
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:29 pm

yurieu wrote:

Thanks for that video. It was posted previously, but this one has English captions.
 
cuban8
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:30 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


There's much more evidence to date that it was an external issue that caused it to go down than an internal mechanical problem

I agree and therefore I feel that we as Westerners, (who are supposedly not a part of an alleged cover up), should be able to call them out with more than a statement.
When business goes to hell, you get rid of three things. Your private jet, your yacht and your mistress..........and most importantly in that order.
~ Russian Billionaire ~
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:
Image
Image

The imgbb is showing as "bandwidth limit exceeded". Would you mind reposting on imgur.com?
 
N212R
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:34 pm

Zeppi wrote:
sevenair wrote:
We are constantly told that iran is amazingly well educated and highly advanced.

Well, those amazingly well educated iranians were those that were on that plane, not those on the ground controlling the TOR. Iran has been suffering massive brain drain for decades, so what is now left in Iran is mostly still those highly attached to their tradition, superstition and religion. Everyone who could get the hell out to lead a life free of this BS already has done so. The only few left behind are those who fear that their families might be targeted by the seppa and basiji if they leave, there are even rules in place in Iran that only a limited number of family members can visit relatives abroad at the same time. Plenty of the asylum seekers we currently still receive in Europe are actually Iranians. My wife is half Iranian, her mom managed to escape in the early 80s all by herself, abandoning her entire (very traditional and religious) family. Only few people have the guts to do that, and even if they do, wealthy families will often come after them to "restore family honor". It's also very interesting to listen to the stories of iranian students, they all paint the same picture. Those that still have family in Iran keep a very low profile, even if they are totally against the mullah regime. You never know who might be listening.
So yes, while Iran may have gained some wealth and a better standard of living than many other places in the ME through oil money, at the core and cross section of their demography they are still a rather primitive people, whose lives are dominated by religion, tradition and superstition. And they live a lot in the past, heck, some still hold grudges against Mongolia for the invasion of the Persian Empire in 1219. It's also why the Iranian regime will never admit to shooting down that 737, it's all about saving face and maintaining "honor", even if the evidence is straight in their face.


How refreshing to read a post which notably adds to the scenario and not more of the same rehashed, repetitive nonsense from the usual suspects. Thank You
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:35 pm

xmp125a wrote:
I was also triggered by that suggestion, but there must be a sad state of military that they shoot down an airliner, when everyone has a smartphone and ADS-B is widespread. Totally unlike a decade or two ago.

I also feel that way when there's some crash that could have been avoided if they just used a map app on a smartphone, but their plane was not equipped with a GPS.
 
kennethP3
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Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:37 pm

flybucky wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:
Image
Image

The imgbb is showing as "bandwidth limit exceeded". Would you mind reposting on imgur.com?

Image

Image
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:41 pm

litz wrote:
These are digital recorders ... there is no magnetic tape.

Just to be precise, the older magnetic tapes still recorded digitally. What you mean is that the current FDRs are solid state (no tape or moving parts).

https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Fli ... order_(FDR)
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:47 pm

Netherlands from their own sources confirmed that the plane most likely was shot down by Iranian missile:

https://nos.nl/artikel/2318060-eigen-in ... ioVLq-OoPo


So it's just the matter of details now - who and why made the launch and how exactly the airplane has collapsed.
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:58 pm

zeke wrote:
Has there been any reports of funerals or repatriation of remains.

Any news on how many passengers and crew that have been identified?

The normal Islamic custom would be for a burial within 24 hrs.


While that's the norm, in extreme circumstances that can basically be ignored. I'd imagine that's what's gonna happen. They would need to identify the remains first as well.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
LEJCargo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:05 pm

cuban8 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
I have to admit I’m quite disappointed with the Western countries. If you claim that Iran shot down the aircraft, at least provide us with some proof. Not just a statement from an intelligence office. I believe as much in the Pentagon’s statement as in the Iranian Government’s statement until further evidence has been given.


There's much more evidence to date that it was an external issue that caused it to go down than an internal mechanical problem

I agree and therefore I feel that we as Westerners, (who are supposedly not a part of an alleged cover up), should be able to call them out with more than a statement.



I think this will happen sooner or later. The US will now sit down, relax and enjoy the "fight". Since most of the passengers were Iranian or double citizens there is gonna be a lot of pressure on the government to provide answers. And that pressure is much higher and much more effective than the pressure the US can cause with providing some satellite images that they can easily dispute as fake.

If however Iran will continue their story and provide zero credible evidence, then US and especially Canada will be forced to show the intel that they have and demand answers. Basically its much easier for US (or western powers if you will) to just watch the self destruction of Iranian officials, because majority of people still wouldn't trust the western intel anyways.
Last edited by LEJCargo on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:06 pm

If you look at the damaged engine there are about 4 turbine blade missing. So these could have punctured the fuselage. There are three holes in a wing section but far more in the fuselage section. SO it wasn't an engine failure. Then there is a section of the missile which came away before impact and landed a distance away from the crash site.
The Iranians say the crash site should be much larger if hit by a missile but that would only be the case if it was at cruising height. It waasn't. To many eyes its pretty obvious what preceded the attack. Iran was expecting retribution and fired at a moving target thus shooting themsoelve in the foot and killing many many people.
 
bmartino99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:07 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
bmartino99 wrote:
Seeing as the US and Canada both have intelligence pointing to a missile, I'd imagine Russia and China potentially have similar information. Iran would have little choice but to acknowledge the accidental downing of the plane if one of Russia or China release intelligence indicating missile use. Any chance they would release such information?

China is not going to meddle in other countries' affairs if it doesn't concern them directly


A country that's not directly involved still has a responsibility to protect it's citizens. I would expect there's at least a small number of Russian and Chinese citizens that go to Iran as tourists. Therefore it isn't unreasonable to assume that countries that have knowledge of a missile downing an airliner would relay that information to their citizens in the form of a travel advisory or similar.
Last edited by bmartino99 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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stasisLAX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:10 pm

CBSNEWS.com is reporting that the crash site now has no security presence, no barricades, and that local scavengers are roaming the site, picking up anything that they find.
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:14 pm

bmartino99 wrote:
A country that's not directly involved still has a responsibility to protect it's citizens. I would expect there's at least a small number of Russian and Chinese citizens that go to Iran as tourists. Therefore it isn't unreasonable to assume that countries that have knowledge of a missile downing an airliner would relay that information to their citizens in the form of a travel advisory or similar.


Many people don't realize ... Iran actually has at least one ski resort with ... apparently ... pretty good skiing.

(and at least one seriously hanky ex-US YAN chair lift ... they were known for grip slippage, which isn't very good if you're in the chair sliding down the cable)
Last edited by litz on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:15 pm

Reddevil556 wrote:
flybucky wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
Is that a hunch or are the reports that possibly multiple missiles were launched?

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.


Thanks for the link, that was the first I had heard of a second missile


The information being given by media outlets on what the US military have reported, seems to be that there were two missile launches but only one missile hit, or at least that's what the US believes registered as signatures on their satellites.
 
MR27122
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:17 pm

11C wrote:
airhansa wrote:
bmartino99 wrote:
Seeing as the US and Canada both have intelligence pointing to a missile, I'd imagine Russia and China potentially have similar information. Iran would have little choice but to acknowledge the accidental downing of the plane if one of Russia or China release intelligence indicating missile use. Any chance they would release such information?


I actually think that these incidents would be caught by openly available civilian satellites - and hence they'd be visible to even small intelligence agencies let alone the likes of the UK or France (and India). I don't consider Russia doing such a thing since allies are important to it. China may do only if it sees value in supporting Chinese growth.

India might be in a good position to take a stance on this. It's historically a non-aligned country and now it's seeking to be a multi-aligned country. It's history of providing moral/social support to all sides might make it a good candidate to release information on a geopolitical that is viewed by both sides as seeking justice.

http://www.businesstoday.in/current/wor ... 93361.html


As pointed out by others, commercial satellites are launched to make money. Missile launch detection, and especially in a specific country is a military mission, not a commercially viable mission for a civilian satellite. And if you don’t think Russia spies on, or monitors its “allies” I suggest you do some reading on the subject. You will find plenty of evidence that virtually all countries with sufficient resources spy on each other, allies are not exempt. In any case, it sure looks like an SA-15 seeker head in the ditch. If that was faked, it’s right up there with the LAPD pre-planting blood evidence at OJ’s house. Not likely. The actions of the Iranian government since the crash certainly are consistent with an uncoordinated response in the first hours, followed by a more coordinated, consistent message. In other words, after screwing up, and shooting down a jetliner, their first response was to deny, obfuscate, blame others. It reeks of guilt. The initial response, as others have noted, was similar by the US government when we shot down an airliner. The big difference ultimately will be that the US came clean. I’m not sure if a weak, totalitarian, religious regime can afford to do the same. But, we shall see.


For purposes of clarity....
The USA never accepted legal blame or apologized to Iran re: Flt 655. The Vincennes "strong" crew shot down an Iranian pax A300 over Iranian International Waters in broad daylight. Furthermore the target the Vincennes "strong" crew believed the A300 to be was strictly Air-to-Air & not Air-to-Ground. Stated more plainly, the "strong" US Navy shot down an Iranian airliner, that if it were indeed a military aircraft, posed zero threat to the Vincennes...& they did so over Iranian "territory". The Commander of the Vincennes remained in-command for the remainder of the deployment & was subsequently awarded the Legion of Merit.

Suggesting the US "came clean" is contrary to historical fact.

This was a tragedy that occurred in a very rapid--USA initiated/escalated "atmosphere".

The "calendar" simply didn't "work out" for the victims....from what I've read, many were visiting Iran during a holiday-break. Jan 3, 2020 the USA assassinates Gen Soleimani in Iraq (Provoked by? Reporting suggests this "action" was decided upon by one-person who had been offered a "menu" of options w/ assassination being the ultimate/nuclear offering & those who presented the menu were shocked by the decision to take this "menu" option). Jan 8, 2020 Iran---as EXPECTED---retaliates by targeting USA military targets in Iraq. What is questionable? Why would ANY airline conduct operations out of what immediately---upon expected Iranian retaliation---became a hot/war zone?

My purpose for posting is not to be "pro" any Sovereign Nation....it's for clarity re: Flt 655 facts. An apex modern US Warship v. aging/antiquated surface-to-air...same result (should that end w/ an explanation-point or question-mark)

-USMA '92
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:20 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
According to international journalists who have visited the crash site, the place has now been cleared of wreckage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer/ ... 3961630720

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer


wow... pretty incredible to clean away the debris within 48 hours like that... I guess when you're looking to withhold evidence, that's what is normally done. So sad. How does Iran expect us to see them in the most positive of light when they do deeds like this...

This really shows the world what Iran is all about. The US's measured response to their failure to hurt Americans makes them look even worse. Leave it to the Ukrainians or Canada to extract amends/revenge.
 
johhnieonion
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:22 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:27 pm

Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:28 pm

zkojq wrote:
This is all fairly standard stuff. Once investigators have thoroughly canvassed the site, taken thousands of photographs and removed the bodies, off course the wreckage is going to be removed and put into storage for further investigation. Usually the investigators will put the pieces back together in a warehouse somewhere. Unless the aircraft is in a difficult place to get to (MH370 in a warzone, US1549 needing to be fished out of the river etc) it will be removed fairly promptly. How long do you expect it to be left there

Fair enough. As long as it is being cataloged and allow foreign investigators full access to them. We will see though. According to this Ukrainian article (translation by Google Translate), the Ukrainian investigators have not been satisfied by the process:

"Is Iran interested in a quality investigation? It's not clear. Details of the plane continue to rake at the crash site there is a crowd of different people in and out of uniform, hundreds of people collect and take away fragments of the aircraft, this can not be controlled" Ukrainian experts have not yet been provided with fragments of the bow of the liner and the cockpit. No passenger seats. "We don’t understand, they don’t show us the cabin, because they study something themselves, or because it is completely destroyed by the explosion? At the moment, we have not been presented with any evidence of the version that Iran originally put forward - about the technical reasons for the incident."
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:28 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.


Well, that'll be interesting to see what they've come up with ...
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:31 pm

zkojq wrote:

flybucky wrote:
5. Intentional shootdown of the Wrong flight.
Slightly more likely than above, but what other commercial flight would they have been targeting instead?
Thoughts? Any other theories?

Why do you think they were trying to shoot down a commercial flight? You don't think that maybe they were trying to shoot down a military flight?

You're right, a foreign military flight/drone/missile would be more likely. This scenario is unlikely, but a commercial flight scenario would be if they were trying to target a commercial flight with mostly Americans.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:34 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

This’ll be good.
 
Cdydatzigs
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 3:31 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:44 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
The only thing that led to this tragedy is somebody firing a missile towards a civilian plane ... Keep US out of this unless you got proof they did something.
Everything else is meaningless considering that nothing was happening in this region.


Nothing was happening in this region ... on this very night. Are you serious right now?
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1367
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:02 pm

So does Iran really try to say it wasn't a missile? Or will they admit it was a missile but try to blame it on some faction or rogue soldier acting on his own?
 
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OA412
Moderator
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:02 pm

Again, please keep off-topic politics out of this discussion.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:08 pm

It seems like the Ukrainian team is rebuilding the air plane in a hanger. Seems like they are missing some parts but Iran is starting to provide them. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Another interesting thing is that the Ukrainian ofgicials are urging the press not to jump to conclusions even though they recieved important data from US today.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:09 pm

It would be interesting to see how the EU deals with this crisis, especially considering we have a understanding of how it has dealt with a airliner shootdown in the past over in Ukraine (and heck, this is technically going to be worded as being a "Russian missile bringing down a Ukrainian aircraft" as well). If the EU doesn't ban its civilians from flying over Iran then they are being too partisan.

As far as I know, the UK, France and Germany have advised against flying over Iranian airspace. I believe any sort of airline worth anything would not be flying over Iran in this messy situation - especially in a situation where we don't know whether Iran can control the reasons behind the airline shooting.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:10 pm

Cdydatzigs wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
The only thing that led to this tragedy is somebody firing a missile towards a civilian plane ... Keep US out of this unless you got proof they did something.
Everything else is meaningless considering that nothing was happening in this region.


Nothing was happening in this region ... on this very night. Are you serious right now?


Yep. They were shooting but nothing was flying their way. NOTHING.
Not to mention that at the time of the flight there was no shooting as it was over a while ago (country wise)
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1185
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:15 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
According to international journalists who have visited the crash site, the place has now been cleared of wreckage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer/ ... 3961630720

https://mobile.twitter.com/elizapalmer


I am extremely disappointed to learn that. I criticized the reports yesterday that the site was being cleared as the evidence presented did not show that.

Unfortunately, if the linked report is true, it appears the single front loader shown yesterday was only the start.

If investigators both from within Iran and internationally are given access to the wreckage and documentation of the crash site condition, they should still be able to learn quite a bit from it, but it is almost certain that many small pieces of debris that could bear useful evidence to confirm and further understand the evolving information will have been missed in such a rapid cleanup.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:15 pm

RadicalX wrote:
It seems like the Ukrainian team is rebuilding the air plane in a hanger. Seems like they are missing some parts but Iran is starting to provide them. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Another interesting thing is that the Ukrainian ofgicials are urging the press not to jump to conclusions even though they recieved important data from US today.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


If this is why Iran was moving the wreckage into a hangar, it was a good move. I think the Ukranian team did something similar with MH17 and the same team appears to be leading this investigation.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style

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