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smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:17 pm

Moving it into a hangar is one thing. But they were moving it as if it was trash, not something to be preserved for investigations
 
nine4nine
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:18 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.



Didn’t they already do that moments after the crash? They said it was a mechanical failure before the flames were even put out.

They’ve also miraculously already extracted information from the black boxes (which usually takes weeks with the NTSB) and said they are too damaged to get any useful information from.

Credibility of any sentence that’s ever come out of Tehran for the past few decades has been utter rubbish and deceitful lies.
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RadicalX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:29 pm

The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
 
2175301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:31 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

This’ll be good.



Hmmm... A bit of speculation on my part: A meteor hit... will be their new claim; unless they are willing to admit that a missile from within the Iran shot it down.

They may even dig some meteor out of a museum or storage and present it as the culprit.

I guess we will find out tomorrow. :)
 
musman9853
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm

dara88 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
dara88 wrote:

Nothing has been proven yet. Are you a 100% sure about the plane being shot down? I heard that Canadian investigators are on their way to Tehran.

Just curious, and don't post anything that will get you in trouble! (Stay safe!)

But is there any proof the US could provide that you or your fellow Iranians would believe?

What if it's not the US, but Canada or other European countries more friendly to Iran saying the same thing?

I think ultimately, the strongest evidence (outside of Iran) is from the Pentagon, evidence they of course can't fully make public (security concerns and military secrets) but as far as what is claimed, it's pretty strong evidence.

Furthermore, countries NOT the US are pretty sure it was a shootdown. Again, answer only if you can, but how do you find the truth if your government says one thing but you think they are lying?


If the US government could track Iranian missiles (or any other), why wouldn't they destroy them in Iraq before they hit the Al Assad Air Base? It's not about saying. Either they should show proof, or wait for the investigators' report. We are all educated here I believe, so if you say something, you should be able to prove it. I'm not denying the shoot down, but nothing is a 100% yet. Southwest Flight 1380 is still under investigation after 20 months. What if it's kind of the same scenario? Could be, could not be; we just have to wait for the report.



All ballistic missile launches are instantly observed by our satellites but we don't have any missile defense system in iraq
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airhansa
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:34 pm

nine4nine wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.



Didn’t they already do that moments after the crash? They said it was a mechanical failure before the flames were even put out.

They’ve also miraculously already extracted information from the black boxes (which usually takes weeks with the NTSB) and said they are too damaged to get any useful information from.

Credibility of any sentence that’s ever come out of Tehran for the past few decades has been utter rubbish and deceitful lies.


  • engine overheating/fire
  • technical malfunction
  • pilot did not contact ATC (or declare mayday)
  • pilot attempted to turn back to airport
  • plane was not shot down by missile because it did not immediately fall out of the sky

The only thing that I am wondering is whether these points were made by the same source? A government official might say things based on political alignment, whereas a civil servant investigator (or police official) would make more factual statements, then there would be other statements made by random civil servants as well.

BTW. Does this mean that the pilots could have contacted ATC? Is there any third party verification?
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:37 pm

airhansa wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.



Didn’t they already do that moments after the crash? They said it was a mechanical failure before the flames were even put out.

They’ve also miraculously already extracted information from the black boxes (which usually takes weeks with the NTSB) and said they are too damaged to get any useful information from.

Credibility of any sentence that’s ever come out of Tehran for the past few decades has been utter rubbish and deceitful lies.


  • engine overheating/fire
  • technical malfunction
  • pilot did not contact ATC (or declare mayday)
  • pilot attempted to turn back to airport
  • plane was not shot down by missile because it did not immediately fall out of the sky

The only thing that I am wondering is whether these points were made by the same source? A government official might say things based on political alignment, whereas a civil servant investigator (or police official) would make more factual statements, then there would be other statements made by random civil servants as well.

BTW. Does this mean that the pilots could have contacted ATC? Is there any third party verification?


https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
They are saying here that the last words of the crew were "before something happened"
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:42 pm

RadicalX wrote:
The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So is the quoted text their actual last words? Or just that the last words were of a peaceful nature, and they thought everything was OK?
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:43 pm

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... 62b4f3d48a

Ukrainian investigators on the ground in Iran are still “missing very important parts of the plane to check for chemical residue," which would allow them to "indicate there was some chemical used in explosives," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with CNN and its affiliate CTV in Kiev today.

Prystaiko said that Ukrainian investigators were missing the chairs from the aircraft but that they “were starting to get them from Iranian authorities.”
 
heyjoojoo
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:43 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So is the quoted text their actual last words? Or just that the last words were of a peaceful nature, and they thought everything was OK?


I would imagine their words were peaceful in nature since they were not expecting 2 missiles to take them out.
 
RadicalX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:46 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So is the quoted text their actual last words? Or just that the last words were of a peaceful nature, and they thought everything was OK?


It's a little bit ambiguous. I'm not sure if it eas the last words of the piolt or how the minister described them.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:50 pm

Also, as they've stated categorically that they don't have the CVR data extracted, that can only be a summation of radio communications between the aircraft and ATC.
 
Daimler
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:51 pm

RadicalX wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So is the quoted text their actual last words? Or just that the last words were of a peaceful nature, and they thought everything was OK?


It's a little bit ambiguous. I'm not sure if it eas the last words of the piolt or how the minister described them.


Well I think it doesn't matter much, as he was talking about recording of last communication with control tower, before transponder went silent... what is actually important I think - is to retreive data and voice recording from Flight Recorder, which would shed some light on what happened.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:52 pm

RadicalX wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So is the quoted text their actual last words? Or just that the last words were of a peaceful nature, and they thought everything was OK?


It's a little bit ambiguous. I'm not sure if it eas the last words of the piolt or how the minister described them.


I'm guessing that's not the actual quote. But some poor writing by the author to quote someone talking about quotes.
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:03 pm

TBH,

My bet is, when they finally get the readouts from the boxes ... the data will just suddenly stop. It would fit what we saw from the transponder data ... a sudden cessation.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:19 pm

The US government shouldn't send any US citizen there really. If its someone they send hopefully just a 'representative' of the NTSB from another nationality.

We wouldn't want to have US citizens used as bargaining chips by the Iranian government now on these very tense times.
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iamlucky13
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:20 pm

MR27122 wrote:
For purposes of clarity....
The USA never accepted legal blame or apologized to Iran re: Flt 655. The Vincennes "strong" crew shot down an Iranian pax A300 over Iranian International Waters in broad daylight. Furthermore the target the Vincennes "strong" crew believed the A300 to be was strictly Air-to-Air & not Air-to-Ground. Stated more plainly, the "strong" US Navy shot down an Iranian airliner, that if it were indeed a military aircraft, posed zero threat to the Vincennes...& they did so over Iranian "territory". The Commander of the Vincennes remained in-command for the remainder of the deployment & was subsequently awarded the Legion of Merit.

Suggesting the US "came clean" is contrary to historical fact.

....

My purpose for posting is not to be "pro" any Sovereign Nation....it's for clarity re: Flt 655 facts. An apex modern US Warship v. aging/antiquated surface-to-air...same result (should that end w/ an explanation-point or question-mark)


The US never formally admitted fault, as in "What we did was wrong." The official position is only that the US regrets what happens, but believes its actions were reasonable under the circumstance. I'm not trying to defend this position, only to clarify what argument was given for it.

The US did admit the factual events: we fired on a civilian aircraft, there were indications it was a civilian aircraft that were not given sufficient consideration, and everyone onboard died as a result. 8 years later, the US paid $130 million in compensation to families of the victims. Again, we did not admit fault, and while the size of the payment may be small compared to what it would have been in the US, at least it provided a non-trivial amount of financial assistance for those who lost family members.

It is false that an F-14 poses no threat to a ship. It was designed as an air-to-air interceptor, but it was capable of carrying air-to-ground weapons. The shootdown occurred in the aftermath of Iran having successfully attacked USS Stark with Exocets launched from a Mirage, and it was known that they had been working on configuring other aircraft including their F-14's to be able to launch Exocets. In addition to the unknown status of those efforts, it could also have been carrying unguided bombs and been planning to descend to a low level attack like those Argentina successfully carried out in the Falklands War.

Nor was it concretely identified as an F-14. It had a proper civilian mode 3 IFF response, but a mode 2 IFF reponse (presumably from some other aircraft in the Vincenne's radar range) was also detected and interpreted as from flight 655. The crew member managing the target tracking then assigned it an ID as an F-14, apparently as an assumption. The actual aircraft type was unknown.

Other factors in the Flight 655 shootdown were the ongoing action with Iranian patrol boats, a mistaken report the aircraft was descending, the fact that it was not departing at a known scheduled time, and the inability to get a response to radio contact attempts.

I think that incident provides a lot of insight on how the Ukranian flight could have been mistakenly shot down.
 
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:21 pm

litz wrote:
TBH,

My bet is, when they finally get the readouts from the boxes ... the data will just suddenly stop. It would fit what we saw from the transponder data ... a sudden cessation.


I think the same
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:27 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
MR27122 wrote:
For purposes of clarity....
The USA never accepted legal blame or apologized to Iran re: Flt 655. The Vincennes "strong" crew shot down an Iranian pax A300 over Iranian International Waters in broad daylight. Furthermore the target the Vincennes "strong" crew believed the A300 to be was strictly Air-to-Air & not Air-to-Ground. Stated more plainly, the "strong" US Navy shot down an Iranian airliner, that if it were indeed a military aircraft, posed zero threat to the Vincennes...& they did so over Iranian "territory". The Commander of the Vincennes remained in-command for the remainder of the deployment & was subsequently awarded the Legion of Merit.

Suggesting the US "came clean" is contrary to historical fact.

....

My purpose for posting is not to be "pro" any Sovereign Nation....it's for clarity re: Flt 655 facts. An apex modern US Warship v. aging/antiquated surface-to-air...same result (should that end w/ an explanation-point or question-mark)


The US never formally admitted fault, as in "What we did was wrong." The official position is only that the US regrets what happens, but believes its actions were reasonable under the circumstance. I'm not trying to defend this position, only to clarify what argument was given for it.

The US did admit the factual events: we fired on a civilian aircraft, there were indications it was a civilian aircraft that were not given sufficient consideration, and everyone onboard died as a result. 8 years later, the US paid $130 million in compensation to families of the victims. Again, we did not admit fault, and while the size of the payment may be small compared to what it would have been in the US, at least it provided a non-trivial amount of financial assistance for those who lost family members.

It is false that an F-14 poses no threat to a ship. It was designed as an air-to-air interceptor, but it was capable of carrying air-to-ground weapons. The shootdown occurred in the aftermath of Iran having successfully attacked USS Stark with Exocets launched from a Mirage, and it was known that they had been working on configuring other aircraft including their F-14's to be able to launch Exocets. In addition to the unknown status of those efforts, it could also have been carrying unguided bombs and been planning to descend to a low level attack like those Argentina successfully carried out in the Falklands War.

Nor was it concretely identified as an F-14. It had a proper civilian mode 3 IFF response, but a mode 2 IFF reponse (presumably from some other aircraft in the Vincenne's radar range) was also detected and interpreted as from flight 655. The crew member managing the target tracking then assigned it an ID as an F-14, apparently as an assumption. The actual aircraft type was unknown.

Other factors in the Flight 655 shootdown were the ongoing action with Iranian patrol boats, a mistaken report the aircraft was descending, the fact that it was not departing at a known scheduled time, and the inability to get a response to radio contact attempts.

I think that incident provides a lot of insight on how the Ukranian flight could have been mistakenly shot down.


And as you say, on that situation at least they admitted hitting an aircraft and saying it was a mistake.

The Iranian govt still denies ever hitting an airplane. Not even as a mistake, not hitting it at all.

Was very unfortunate to happen, but as some people are saying today, if we took the standard the Iranian government used on IR655 saying it was a deliberate and criminal act, the Iranian govt should own up to their own criminal conduct here shooting this aircraft. But it appears it was by mistake, the same thing happened with IR655, saying this was a mistake will take down their narrative that IR655 wasn't a mistake.
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smokeybandit
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 pm

litz wrote:
TBH,

My bet is, when they finally get the readouts from the boxes ... the data will just suddenly stop. It would fit what we saw from the transponder data ... a sudden cessation.


And Iran can say "see, no evidence there that it was a missile"
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:36 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?
 
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litz
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:43 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
litz wrote:
TBH,

My bet is, when they finally get the readouts from the boxes ... the data will just suddenly stop. It would fit what we saw from the transponder data ... a sudden cessation.


And Iran can say "see, no evidence there that it was a missile"


Heh, well if you want to nitpick ... they would be correct in that statement.

Now where it gets interesting is if there's a burst of noise right at the very end of the audio track.

In the MH17 recording, they were actually able to triangulate the location of the source of the burst of noise, based on the microsecond time differences between the various microphones in the cockpit.

They were able to successfully place the source of the noise burst off the left-hand side of the cockpit, which matched the forensic evidence.
 
chiawei
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:43 pm

dara88 wrote:
wingman wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Then why Iran never used this argument for the downing of IR655. According to them it was a criminal act by the US, right when tensions in the gulf were high as well. Lets use the Iranian standard they set with IR655 on this crash as-well please.


I agree. Iran is to blame here and they'll ultimately accept responsibility and pay. Reagan apologized for IR655 and we paid compensation. But in the immediate heat of the moment the Vincennes thought they were shooting down an F14 and the US government did its level best to blame Iran for the entire incident. Same shit, different decade, flip side of the coin.


Nothing has been proven yet. Are you a 100% sure about the plane being shot down? I heard that Canadian investigators are on their way to Tehran.


Well you have Iranian clear the sites before all parties can observe the site. You have Iranian officials already states reason of crash while the debris still burning.

Seriously speaking- if you don’t have things to hide. There is no reason for Iranian to do what has been done.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:47 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?

Because they shot it down?
 
Eikie
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:47 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?

Before the plane was on the ground Iran already declared it was because of an engine fire, so they must have some high end fancy analysis system the west doesn't know.about.
 
DDR
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:48 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?


If they admit the plane was shot down, then I can understand the quick determination. Any other reason they give for the crash will be a lie. It takes many months to determine a malfunction of the aircraft itself.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:54 pm

Eikie wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?

Before the plane was on the ground Iran already declared it was because of an engine fire, so they must have some high end fancy analysis system the west doesn't know.about.



They do. That cardboard And fiberglass stealth fighter they showcased that’s scaled at the size of a Cessna 172 also is an AWACS.
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:00 pm

32andBelow wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?

Because they shot it down?


Delayed the tomorrow's press conference.
 
airtechy
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:14 pm

One other possibility for the ADS-B data ending abruptly would be if the blast sheared off the transponder antenna. I think there are two, but I don't know if they are shared between the two transponders or one serves one and one the other. Without an antenna, no signal is going to be emitted. Other than that, I agree that the boxes will tell us nothing with the possibility of a big bang at the end as in the case of MH17.

I know some data was lost in .. I think .. the PanAm 103 bombing, because the data recorder stored the real time data in temp storage (probably to frame it) for milliseconds before it actually wrote it to permanent protected storage. I think they have since fixed that. In the case of bombs or missiles, end of recorded data is very important.

Jim
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:16 pm

zeke wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Is bulldozing the crash site normal?


Anyone can see that the front end loader is not a bulldozer. The accident site is not being bulldozed, it is a single front end loader which simply could be there to lift large parts so they can recover human remains.

The article above has been modified, it was someone’s tweet that started that, the tweet been changed to

“ (Deleted previous tweet to clarify terminology)

Images of heavy machinery in use at the #PS752 crash site: right (35.561029, 51.104018) and left (35.559296, 51.104630)“

If they were trying to cover anything up, they could block all the media access the site and prevent it for being posted.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1215726625796521985 shows evidence the site has been bulldozed.

xmp125a wrote:
Revelation wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
People, just read the news! Justin Trudeau confirmed that western intelligence services now think that iranians shot down the airplane by mistake. It is all over mainstream media, so no need to speculate.

I think we should be more precise, all he said was that it may have been unintentional.

Ok, my point was that we can stop speculating whether it was a missile. It was. Now for being intentional, following the reasoning I had about the missile most likely, I would say that unintentional is quite consistent with circumstances that night (see my previous post in a thread).

As I wrote it is likely that it was accidental for circumstantial reasons but we don't have strong evidence such as intel voice intercepts to tell us one way or the other and the claim that the Canadian PM said it was accidental wasn't accurate.

xmp125a wrote:
Here about intercepted communications:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... senger-jet

All it says is:

The U.S. military also has the capability to intercept communications between Iranian commanders and anti-aircraft missile batteries which would have provided the Pentagon insight into what might have transpired around the time the Ukrainian passenger jet crashed. Canada also has its own communications intelligence gathering capabilities which are considered top notch.

It means next to nothing. Just because an entity has a capability doesn't mean it has been able to use that capability in a specific instance.

32andBelow wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

How did they determine the cause of the crash so quickly?

Because they shot it down?

Sadly, all they'd need to do is do an inventory of SA-15 warheads.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:31 pm

flybucky wrote:
The imgbb is showing as "bandwidth limit exceeded". Would you mind reposting on imgur.com?

Here are JPEG images with 80% quality, about 1/8 the original PNG file size.

sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.
New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:
Image
Image
Last edited by PixelFlight on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:33 pm

Revelation wrote:

xmp125a wrote:
Here about intercepted communications:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... senger-jet

It means next to nothing. Just because an entity has a capability doesn't mean it has been able to use that capability in a specific instance.

Yeah, I had the same response. xmp125a did post an actual source later:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-p ... s-suspects

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has intelligence indicating that Iranians quickly learned they’d made a mistake by downing the plane, according to two U.S. government officials. That includes intercepts indicating that civil aviation officials in Iran knew the plane should not have been a military target, the sources said.
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:34 pm

So now Ukrainians are looking for possible bomb explosion from inside the plane. They say Ukrain wasn't happy with the one hour delay and are investigating why some luggages were removed.
This is a little weird given the fact that they previously said the got very solid evidence from US.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sadly, all they'd need to do is do an inventory of SA-15 warheads.

TBH missing equipment in a military doesn't mean that it was used. Plenty of stuff gets broken, lost, misplaced, stolen or sold on the black market. Even well organised western militaries find dozens of guns 'missing' every year. The US and allies have no information on the whereabouts of weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars that were transferred to middle eastern countries. Sometimes a SAM shows up in an italian living room.
That said, there's probably less than a dozen people who could've pulled the trigger. I'm sure the Iranian military has ways to make them talk (if required).
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:36 pm

musman9853 wrote:
All ballistic missile launches are instantly observed by our satellites but we don't have any missile defense system in iraq

Another point is that small missiles in Iran (where there is no U.S. military activity) are probably not being monitored real time, but they can be discovered after analysis.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:40 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.
New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:

Well researched! Now if someone could translate what the car's passengers are saying ... are they discussing what to eat for dinner or why that airplane just exploded?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:40 pm

The Prime Minister of Australia has said: "As has been noted and spoken to by our colleagues, both in Canada and the United States today, I can confirm as I have on the radio this morning, that Australia has received similar intelligence to that which has been spoken to by both the Prime Minister of Canada and from out of the United States, this underscores the terrible nature of these events, all of that intelligence as presented to us today does not suggest an intentional act and that is the basis of the information that has supported the comments I've made today."

http://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-confer ... ouse-act-1
Last edited by airhansa on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bmartino99
Posts: 86
Joined: Fri May 18, 2018 7:57 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:42 pm

RadicalX wrote:
So now Ukrainians are looking for possible bomb explosion from inside the plane. They say Ukrain wasn't happy with the one hour delay and are investigating why some luggages were removed.
This is a little weird given the fact that they previously said the got very solid evidence from US.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


They want to run a proper investigation, check all the boxes. I would guess the degree of certainty of the intelligence is much higher in the plane explosion than the launch of a small missile. Time will tell though.
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:44 pm

mxaxai wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.
New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:

Well researched! Now if someone could translate what the car's passengers are saying ... are they discussing what to eat for dinner or why that airplane just exploded?


They are talking about what that fire ball is. And the women tells the man to focous on driving. It seems like they had no idea it wss an airplane.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:44 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html
They are saying here that the last words of the crew were "before something happened"

The quotes are getting really confusing. At first I thought you were saying the last words of the crew were literally "before something happened". But I don't think that's what you meant.

Let me try to reword the article, because I think it's worded poorly and leads to ambiguity. I believe all the quotes are from Prystaiko, not the crew. Here's the original text of the CNN article above:

The last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were “peaceful and that everything was okay,” according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

In an interview with CNN and CNN affiliate CTV, Prystaiko said that Ukrainian investigators have access to the recording of the control tower and to the Ukrainian International Airlines crew "before something happened."


Here's how I would rewrite it unambiguously:

According to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, the last words of the pilot of the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran were peaceful and that everything was okay. Prystaiko said that Ukrainian investigators have access to the recording of the control tower and to the Ukrainian International Airlines crew before something happened.
 
RadicalX
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:46 pm

bmartino99 wrote:
RadicalX wrote:
So now Ukrainians are looking for possible bomb explosion from inside the plane. They say Ukrain wasn't happy with the one hour delay and are investigating why some luggages were removed.
This is a little weird given the fact that they previously said the got very solid evidence from US.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


They want to run a proper investigation, check all the boxes. I would guess the degree of certainty of the intelligence is much higher in the plane explosion than the launch of a small missile. Time will tell though.

But didn't canadian PM say based on what they have it is likely a missile that shot down the plane.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1371
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:58 pm

RadicalX wrote:
So now Ukrainians are looking for possible bomb explosion from inside the plane. They say Ukrain wasn't happy with the one hour delay and are investigating why some luggages were removed.
This is a little weird given the fact that they previously said the got very solid evidence from US.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live ... index.html


So, could something have been planted on the plane that would draw the attention of the missile battery?
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:03 pm

johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

Found the source: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status ... 6141851649
Iran's Fars News says Iran will announce the reason for the crash of the Ukrainian airliner tomorrow

However, I am skeptical of these announcements. A lot of times, there are many different agencies involved, and they are not all on the same page. I remember for Ethiopian, one official would say they would release the Preliminary Report the next day, but then another official would contradict them. This went on for days.

Also, I have not seen other news like CNN or BBC pick this up.

But if Iran really did announce the reason, it would probably be something like this. PS752 crashed because:

  • The plane caught on fire for some reason [but not because of a missile]
  • The engine failed / caught on fire [but not because of a missile]
  • It definitely was not a missile because the plane would have fallen out of the sky instead of gliding for another few minutes.
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:05 pm

Wow, lots of speculations about this event:

- missiles
- bomb aboard
- meteors
- engine
- pilot error[/list]

Any of these still falling under the 'conspiracy theory' label?
I would say no.

Expecting Iran to deliver a truthful, complete, accurate assessment of this aircraft incident as anything but a malicious attack on innocent people is a conspiracy theory in and of itself.

BREAKING: Keep in mind, that Iranian TV, they're telling their viewers that they killed some 80 American troops and that the airliner crashed because of engine failure. Truth.
Last edited by heyjoojoo on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
chiefs11
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:51 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:09 pm

mxaxai wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
sevenair wrote:
New video from another angle.
New video about the #IranPlaneCrash Person who posted it says that it was shot by one of the victims relatives who left the airport a bit before the take off. No source yet, but the pix are very similar with the other videos of the explosion. #PS752 #iran #planecrash

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImHaiderSherazi/status/1215582148893298689

I think that I found the car trajectory from where that video was taken, based on the angle of view of the impact site, the number of lanes, the number of road lights (some missing), the high structure on the left at the beginning and the over road panel on the middle of the video:

Well researched! Now if someone could translate what the car's passengers are saying ... are they discussing what to eat for dinner or why that airplane just exploded?


The video was posted earlier in this thread with subtitles: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438597&start=1950#p21922003

Direct link to video with subtitles: https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1215643154805854213

My impression is that they didn't realize it was an airplane coming down, and they possibly thought it was itself a missile or rocket that hit some target.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:10 pm

RadicalX wrote:
So now Ukrainians are looking for possible bomb explosion from inside the plane. They say Ukrain wasn't happy with the one hour delay and are investigating why some luggages were removed.
This is a little weird given the fact that they previously said the got very solid evidence from US.

I think it is good Ukrainians are doing their due diligence and exploring every possible theory. Otherwise, the optics are bad if they just said, "Oh, the U.S. told us this, so case closed."
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:14 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Well researched! Now if someone could translate what the car's passengers are saying ... are they discussing what to eat for dinner or why that airplane just exploded?

Someone posted this earlier. It has English captions of the same video: https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/12 ... 4805854213
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1018
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:15 pm

flybucky wrote:
johhnieonion wrote:
Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

Found the source: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status ... 6141851649
Iran's Fars News says Iran will announce the reason for the crash of the Ukrainian airliner tomorrow

However, I am skeptical of these announcements. A lot of times, there are many different agencies involved, and they are not all on the same page. I remember for Ethiopian, one official would say they would release the Preliminary Report the next day, but then another official would contradict them. This went on for days.

Also, I have not seen other news like CNN or BBC pick this up.

But if Iran really did announce the reason, it would probably be something like this. PS752 crashed because:

  • The plane caught on fire for some reason [but not because of a missile]
  • The engine failed / caught on fire [but not because of a missile]
  • It definitely was not a missile because the plane would have fallen out of the sky instead of gliding for another few minutes.

My turn to guess the most incredible cause announce:
PS752 was hit by a defense Tor missile targeted a USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone. The first defense Tor missile activated the electronic countermeasures of the USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone, and by the way this deflected the second defense Tor missile launch to wrongly target the PS752.
Last edited by PixelFlight on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1808
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:20 pm

chiefs11 wrote:
The video was posted earlier in this thread with subtitles: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438597&start=1950#p21922003

Direct link to video with subtitles: https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1215643154805854213

My impression is that they didn't realize it was an airplane coming down, and they possibly thought it was itself a missile or rocket that hit some target.

Thanks! Yeah, I can understand that a ball of fire soaring through the sky doesn't make you think of an airliner. One tends to look for more mundane explanations of inexplicable things. Meteors, sky lanterns, possibly even missiles in certain regions.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 606
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:23 pm

heyjoojoo wrote:
Wow, lots of speculations about this event:
- missiles
- bomb aboard
- meteors
- engine
- pilot error

Any of these still falling under the 'conspiracy theory' label?
I would say no.

Expecting Iran to deliver a truthful, complete, accurate assessment of this aircraft incident as anything but a malicious attack on innocent people is a conspiracy theory in and of itself.



You left out the one where a poster earlier considered it possibly being hit from an inbound US launched ICBM minuteman missile from North Dakota.
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