RadicalX wrote:

But didn't canadian PM say based on what they have it is likely a missile that shot down the plane.

The Canadian PM said:

“We have intelligence from multiple sources including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile,” Trudeau told a news conference.

He added: “This may well have been unintentional.”

Ref: https://apnews.com/1cf3a9656804672b4ddd72190dcfee22

Revelation wrote:

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1215726625796521985 shows evidence the site has been bulldozed.

No evidence of bulldozer at all, I see no track marks at all just tyre prints.

Russian state media really .....

Does the accidental shootdown of Ukraine International flight 752 mean that the accidental US shootdown of IR655 has been "avenged"? Or the Canadian embassy's help in evacuating Americans from Tehran during the early days of the revolution has also been avenged?? All commercial flights into and out of Iran should be suspended from NATO allied countries... indefinitely.

zeke wrote:

Revelation wrote:

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1215726625796521985 shows evidence the site has been bulldozed.

No evidence of bulldozer at all, I see no track marks at all just tyre prints.

Russian state media really .....

Ok, no "bulldozer".

CBS News reports: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720

CBS crew just visited the #Ukrainian airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday - say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.

--

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

There’s so much verified video and other reports including intelligence from numerous countries, that I cannot believe the Iranian government will try to bluff their way thru it. The citizens will not be happy and there’s already lots of social unrest as evidenced by recent protests put down by the military and IRGC.

As you say, protests can be put down by the military and the IRGC.

sgrow787 wrote:

Polot wrote:

sgrow787 wrote:

Out of curiosity, does the US have a comparable version of the TOR-M1?

Of course.

Link?

I'm no expert, but from some quick research it looks like the two main mobile surface-to-air systems currently used by the U.S. Army are Avenger (short range) and Patriot (medium and long range). Avenger is Hummvee-based and fires Stinger missiles (which can also be fired from a shoulder-based launcher). Patriot is a much bigger and more complex system.

My impression is that TOR-M1 falls somewhere in-between, but is probably more similar to Avenger than Patriot, at least as far as warhead size and intended use. Happy to be corrected by somebody with more familiarity than me.

https://www.military.com/equipment/aven ... pon-system

https://www.military.com/equipment/patriot-pac-3

iamlucky13 wrote:

It is false that an F-14 poses no threat to a ship. It was designed as an air-to-air interceptor, but it was capable of carrying air-to-ground weapons. The shootdown occurred in the aftermath of Iran having successfully attacked USS Stark with Exocets launched from a Mirage, and it was known that they had been working on configuring other aircraft including their F-14's to be able to launch Exocets. In addition to the unknown status of those efforts, it could also have been carrying unguided bombs and been planning to descend to a low level attack like those Argentina successfully carried out in the Falklands War.

Iraq accidentally hit the USS Stark with an Exocet, not Iran. Iran did not have Exocets, nor did it have Mirages (before some flew over from Iraq during the Gulf War).

airhansa wrote:

Reddevil556 wrote:

flybucky wrote:

CBS said: "U.S. satellites detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded."

I don't think the instagram video showed a second missile impact though. My guess is that the first missile missed, and only the second missile hit.

Thanks for the link, that was the first I had heard of a second missile

The information being given by media outlets on what the US military have reported, seems to be that there were two missile launches but only one missile hit, or at least that's what the US believes registered as signatures on their satellites.

There were two blips then one blip, those two blips are most likely the launch, then that one blip was either a missile hitting or the plane hitting the ground, so its possible that only one missile hit buts its unconfirmed.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... ent-people tries to give us some insights into how an accidental shoot down could happen:

After a week of being on extreme alert already wearing down their effectiveness, and with their country having just launched a truly unprecedented ballistic missile strike on U.S. forces in Iraq, even though the American president swore vengeance if such a strike were to occur, the stress and fatigue levels were likely very palpable. In fact, the ballistic missiles flew into Iraq at roughly 3AM local time and dawn was coming soon when the 737 went down three hours later. That makes for a long, very tense night after a long tense week, and if the U.S. were to retaliate, those weapons would arrive before sunrise. For the Iranian air defenders, the window of vulnerability was closing, but as a result, the risk of such a strike was also being compressed into that shrinking timeframe and magnified.

It also goes into other episodes of accidental shootdowns, such as MH17, USS Vincennes, the Patriot shootdown of a RAF Tornado, the recent Indian shoot down of one of their own helicopters, etc.

It's quite well written, I recommend giving it a read.

PixelFlight wrote:

flybucky wrote:

johhnieonion wrote:

Don't know if this is a new development but Sky News UK just had a breaking news alert that Iran will announce the cause of the crash tomorrow.

[/list]

My turn to guess the most incredible cause announce:
PS752 was hit by a defense Tor missile targeted a USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone. The first defense Tor missile activated the electronic countermeasures of the USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone, and by the way this deflected the second defense Tor missile launch to wrongly target the PS752.

If I was in charge of their PR this is definitely the line I would take, it's not blatantly different then what anyone else is saying and its at least plausible enough (no one believe the US government denials about where there off the record assets were or were not). It avoids the blame, and allows everyone to go home.

dstblj52 wrote:

airhansa wrote:

Reddevil556 wrote:

Thanks for the link, that was the first I had heard of a second missile

The information being given by media outlets on what the US military have reported, seems to be that there were two missile launches but only one missile hit, or at least that's what the US believes registered as signatures on their satellites.

There were two blips then one blip, those two blips are most likely the launch, then that one blip was either a missile hitting or the plane hitting the ground, so its possible that only one missile hit buts its unconfirmed.

I believe that these signatures are more uniquely identifiable to the point that the military can distinguish between a missile being launched, a missile hitting its target and a plane smashing into the ground.

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

Daimler wrote:

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

At first thought, I didn't think it matters if we geolocated the video.

But when you think about it, it makes it much harder to say the video was a fake. The fakers would need to have had a video of this area and quickly photoshopped something that is consistent with all the other video evidence, most of which would come out AFTER the video was faked.

Pretty damning

airhansa wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

airhansa wrote:

The information being given by media outlets on what the US military have reported, seems to be that there were two missile launches but only one missile hit, or at least that's what the US believes registered as signatures on their satellites.

There were two blips then one blip, those two blips are most likely the launch, then that one blip was either a missile hitting or the plane hitting the ground, so its possible that only one missile hit buts its unconfirmed.

I believe that these signatures are more uniquely identifiable to the point that the military can distinguish between a missile being launched, a missile hitting its target and a plane smashing into the ground.

These blips that their seeing are thermal flair ups basically, and they have crap resolution from 32,000 miles up, so given the ways its been reported it looks like they can't tell what each blip was and are just looking at time stamps and gaps between them
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

DeltaMD90 wrote:

Daimler wrote:

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

At first thought, I didn't think it matters if we geolocated the video.

But when you think about it, it makes it much harder to say the video was a fake. The fakers would need to have had a video of this area and quickly photoshopped something that is consistent with all the other video evidence, most of which would come out AFTER the video was faked.

Pretty damning

Given the reaction of the trolls on that site, it matters a lot.

Don’t they realise they are making themselves look even more guilty?

I can’t see any other way this can be spun by Iran. It looks damaging. This is probably the point where the discussion has to be moved to off topic I guess as it looks to be a shoot down and not a plane malfunction.

So, riddle me this ... Iran is a very proud country. They do not like to be "told" what to do ...

They've, by all evidence, had members of their air defense make a horrible, tragic mistake ...

How exactly do they extricate themselves from this, considering their air minister is already officially on record debunking any possibility of a shoot-down?

There-in lies the problem ...

Western nations "telling" Iran they "must" do something is only going to get the regime to dig its heels in further.

Daimler wrote:

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

Confess? I am sure they will find a way to blame it on the US..

Revelation wrote:

Russian state media really .....
Ok, no "bulldozer".

CBS News reports: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720

There is a significant difference between bulldozing a site which implies earthworks to bury evidence and what that tweet says “ Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday”.

If people wanted to look for explosive residue that will still be present on the smaller pieces there as well as on the passengers and crew.

The mix of propellant and explosive used in these missiles is easily identifiable. You don’t need large parts to identify it. Swabbing the passengers and crew as well as the smaller pieces is more than enough.

litz wrote:

So, riddle me this ... Iran is a very proud country. They do not like to be "told" what to do ...

They've, by all evidence, had members of their air defense make a horrible, tragic mistake ...

How exactly do they extricate themselves from this, considering their air minister is already officially on record debunking any possibility of a shoot-down?

There-in lies the problem ...

Western nations "telling" Iran they "must" do something is only going to get the regime to dig its heels in further.

They may not like to be told what to do. But we don't like to have our embassies bombed either. That's how wars start.

Iran could easily say the US shot down the 737.

They could spin it any way they want. They could use the standard line that the USA is trying to start another war. As long as the locals in the middle east believe the story then problem solved.

DeltaMD90 wrote:

Daimler wrote:

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

At first thought, I didn't think it matters if we geolocated the video.

But when you think about it, it makes it much harder to say the video was a fake. The fakers would need to have had a video of this area and quickly photoshopped something that is consistent with all the other video evidence, most of which would come out AFTER the video was faked.

Pretty damning

A committed faker could go to the spot after the crash, film it and add a few bright pixels + some explosion sound. All videos show merely a small bright spot, not much rendering and detail required. There's a low chance of multiple videos (in decent quality) showing that precise moment, all other videos so far show just a fireball hitting the ground. The trajectory of the jet was known pretty quickly.
Unlikely, but definitely not impossible.

RJMAZ wrote:

Iran could easily say the US shot down the 737.

They could spin it any way they want. They could use the standard line that the USA is trying to start another war. As long as the locals in the middle east believe the story then problem solved.

In addition it is a Boeing a/c and we not only know about the MAX but all the e-mails about hoodwinking officials, lack of integrity, poor work quality, easy to say technical fault on the a/c, we also have experts who have shown how technical faults could lead to the loss of GPS data, a/c going off course, etc etc...so real easy to convince the masses.

RJMAZ wrote:

Iran could easily say the US shot down the 737.

They could spin it any way they want. They could use the standard line that the USA is trying to start another war. As long as the locals in the middle east believe the story then problem solved.

Of course. It all boils down to who you trust.

I know who I trust and don't trust.

Changing subjects, in the aftermath of this event ... what's been happening with schedules in/out of Tehran's airport?

There have been reports of a lot of flights (gee, surprise) being canceled ...

This looks like a bad call by the Iranians. They'll try to blame the U.S. but this was a Ukranian plane. . . .

If 737 had a transponder failure (technical failure) which resulted in a shoot down (by Iran), both sides have a valid story and there will never be a consensus.

Also this bulldozer story is getting tired. If government won't sweep up as many pieces as quickly as possible, scavengers will pickup even engines and other heavy parts and sell by lbs. to local scrap yard. Any expert can figure out shrapnel damage and perform residual chemical analysis even on dirt covered pieces. It is nearly impossible to bag and tag each piece. Not sure why every 30 minutes one media outlet is reporting this story.

Shooting down a 3 year old 737 is a crime in itself, with worldwide shortage of 737s.

superjeff wrote:

This looks like a bad call by the Iranians. They'll try to blame the U.S. but this was a Ukranian plane. . . .

Are you thinking they meant to shoot down a US airliner instead of a Ukrainian one?

dstblj52 wrote:

PixelFlight wrote:

flybucky wrote:

[/list]

My turn to guess the most incredible cause announce:
PS752 was hit by a defense Tor missile targeted a USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone. The first defense Tor missile activated the electronic countermeasures of the USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone, and by the way this deflected the second defense Tor missile launch to wrongly target the PS752.

If I was in charge of their PR this is definitely the line I would take, it's not blatantly different then what anyone else is saying and its at least plausible enough (no one believe the US government denials about where there off the record assets were or were not). It avoids the blame, and allows everyone to go home.

Max ceiling range of tor is not high enough to catch a reaper flying at FL500 let alone a stealth bomber.
Unless you want to believe that a US drone managed to fly through entire Iran and then some dude decided to get it below FL300 so that the TOR could be deployed.

dtw2hyd wrote:

...

Shooting down a 3 year old 737 is a crime in itself, with worldwide shortage of 737s.

I'm sorry but this made me laugh

PixelPilot wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

PixelFlight wrote:

My turn to guess the most incredible cause announce:
PS752 was hit by a defense Tor missile targeted a USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone. The first defense Tor missile activated the electronic countermeasures of the USA hostile stealth bomber/fighter/drone, and by the way this deflected the second defense Tor missile launch to wrongly target the PS752.

If I was in charge of their PR this is definitely the line I would take, it's not blatantly different then what anyone else is saying and its at least plausible enough (no one believe the US government denials about where there off the record assets were or were not). It avoids the blame, and allows everyone to go home.

Max ceiling range of tor is not high enough to catch a reaper flying at FL500 let alone a stealth bomber.
Unless you want to believe that a US drone managed to fly through entire Iran and then some dude decided to get it below FL300 so that the TOR could be deployed.

Do you think the average person understands the hight operating limits of drones, no and they don't care, its most likely not true, but its basically impossible to disprove.

heyjoojoo wrote:

superjeff wrote:

This looks like a bad call by the Iranians. They'll try to blame the U.S. but this was a Ukranian plane. . . .

Are you thinking they meant to shoot down a US airliner instead of a Ukrainian one?

No, because there are no U.S. airlines operating into Tehran, and I don't even think they overfly.

mxaxai wrote:

DeltaMD90 wrote:

Daimler wrote:

By the way, I don't recall anybody mentioning that geolocation of the video where we see the missile hit has been verified today:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 8391460864

I think Iran has no other choice but to confess.

At first thought, I didn't think it matters if we geolocated the video.

But when you think about it, it makes it much harder to say the video was a fake. The fakers would need to have had a video of this area and quickly photoshopped something that is consistent with all the other video evidence, most of which would come out AFTER the video was faked.

Pretty damning

A committed faker could go to the spot after the crash, film it and add a few bright pixels + some explosion sound. All videos show merely a small bright spot, not much rendering and detail required. There's a low chance of multiple videos (in decent quality) showing that precise moment, all other videos so far show just a fireball hitting the ground. The trajectory of the jet was known pretty quickly.
Unlikely, but definitely not impossible.

A crappy, easily proven fake is that easy. But to do it right, there are tons of things that need to line up, some things that may come up in videos AFTER you make the fake, either requiring coincidence or a bigger conspiracy theory.

For one, they have to be in a location and angle that lines up with where the 737 flew and lost contact. The geolocation jives with what we know (this doesn't 100% prove the video but if it didn't line up that would instantly disprove it)

I'd have to look at the video again, but I recall there being small, low res lights and flashes, but you can time between any flashes (or lack of flashes.) You should be able to roughly line it up with other videos. Again, doesn't 100% prove but anything to the contrary would disprove

The rough launch location and orientation of the missile can be very broadly estimated. If that lines up with anything the US releases, it doesn't 100% prove, but it would suggest the video was faked by the US, the US faked the launch locations based off this video, or coincidence. And again, if the 2 don't line up then it's fake. And any future video would have to have either missile match this video

I could go on, but you can see how all the evidence strengthens each other. You don't have 20 different things pointing to different conclusions, you have many pieces all fitting together. You get to the point where you can completely throw out anything the US says and the rest of the evidence continues to stand on its own.

To the contrary you have Iran saying it was a technical fault (in record time,) super duper vague anonymous "intelligence sources" saying they *think* it was a technical fault with official followup to the contrary, a very quickly redacted statement from the Ukrainian embassy saying they *think* it's a technical fault, and not much else...

superjeff wrote:

heyjoojoo wrote:

superjeff wrote:

This looks like a bad call by the Iranians. They'll try to blame the U.S. but this was a Ukranian plane. . . .

Are you thinking they meant to shoot down a US airliner instead of a Ukrainian one?

No, because there are no U.S. airlines operating into Tehran, and I don't even think they overfly.

I know US-registered freighters were overflying Iran regularly prior to these events.

Bloomberg is reporting that Iran says that they accidentally shot down the jet due to a human error

https://twitter.com/business/status/121 ... 43200?s=21

It appears that Iran has now admitted the plane was shot down as a result of "human error".

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/statu ... 2233370625

Iran has stated that they accidentally shot down the Ukranian plane due to human error.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-jetl ... -1.5423608

qf789 wrote:

Bloomberg is reporting that Iran says that they accidentally shot down the jet due to a human error

https://twitter.com/business/status/121 ... 43200?s=21

Shocked the admission came so fast. Prayers for the families, friends, and colleagues of those who perished.

VectorBlue wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Bloomberg is reporting that Iran says that they accidentally shot down the jet due to a human error

https://twitter.com/business/status/121 ... 43200?s=21

Shocked the admission came so fast. Prayers for the families, friends, and colleagues of those who perished.

Well- it’s kind of hard when evidence is overwhelming

Glad they came clean in the end.

Shame on those of you claiming it was all a fake and the overwhelming evidence was photoshopped and faked literally right up until the moment Iran admitted it.

ikolkyo wrote:

Gotta respect that Iran actually came out clean with that, take notes America.

Why take notes America?

ikolkyo wrote:

Gotta respect that Iran actually came out clean with that, take notes America.

On what? Calling them out more often?

Take notes of what? The U.S. may never had apologized for the Iran Air shoot down but they did admit it the next day.

zeke wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Russian state media really .....
Ok, no "bulldozer".

CBS News reports: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720

There is a significant difference between bulldozing a site which implies earthworks to bury evidence and what that tweet says “ Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday”.

If people wanted to look for explosive residue that will still be present on the smaller pieces there as well as on the passengers and crew.

The mix of propellant and explosive used in these missiles is easily identifiable. You don’t need large parts to identify it. Swabbing the passengers and crew as well as the smaller pieces is more than enough.

You’re being pedantic and it’s a foolish response. It’s crystal clear this site is not being properly handled. Feel free to choose whatever words you want, but this is a cover up.

Class act by Iran, for sure. Yes the evidence was overwhelming ... however, we've seen other governments flat out refuse to admit error (*cough* EgyptAir), despite overwhelming evidence.

ikolkyo wrote:

Gotta respect that Iran actually came out clean with that, take notes America.

While there never was a formal apology from the US, did the US actually deny that we shot down IR655? I don't think we denied it (though it would have been better if we actually apologized)

Glad Iran admitted it, kind of ridiculous they denied it so strongly (calling it the "big lie" and "psychological operations" from the Pentagon) but whatever.

I wonder if they would have eventually admitted it if there wasn't so much video evidence. I figure word of mouth from many Iranians living near the missile launchers would eventually catch up to them, in addition to all the other evidence

Iran murders 170 people less than 72 hours ago, denied it, then realised they had to admit it as the evidence is overwhelming and somehow America is the baddy?! This the same Iran who was claiming an engine failure brought down the plane minutes after it went down?

What a queer world we live in.

CNN reporting as well:

Iran admits to shooting down Ukrainian passenger plane unintentionally, report says:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/middleea ... index.html

DeltaMD90 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

Gotta respect that Iran actually came out clean with that, take notes America.

While there never was a formal apology from the US, did the US actually deny that we shot down IR655? I don't think we denied it (though it would have been better if we actually apologized)

Glad Iran admitted it, kind of ridiculous they denied it so strongly (calling it the "big lie" and "psychological operations" from the Pentagon) but whatever.

I wonder if they would have eventually admitted it if there wasn't so much video evidence. I figure word of mouth from many Iranians living near the missile launchers would eventually catch up to them, in addition to all the other evidence

"OnJuly 5 of 1988 President Ronald Reagan expressed regret; when directly asked if this statement was intended as an apology to Iran, Reagan replied "Yes.""

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_ ... #Aftermath

Based on what I’ve seen here, a claim that it was turning toward a sensitive military base seems dishonest, since it was following the usual flight path.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... g-news-bar

Well, if someone pressed the launch button by mistake, I hope it is still alive, knowing the Iranian regime.

I hope there will be an investigation to find those responsible and that they will be prosecuted and punished.

marktci wrote:

It appears that Iran has now admitted the plane was shot down as a result of "human error".

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/statu ... 2233370625

I am quite impressed that Iran admitted fault. I also hope that there is a thorough investigation now. I guess the cause is known now, with the black boxes analyzed. Hope this will provide some closure to families even if the reasoning is quite undefendable and irresponsible.