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stasisLAX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:31 am

MSNBC is now reporting that the Iranian government has admitted that one of its own missiles inadvertently shot down the Ukrainian 737.... big banner at the bottom of the screen. The Iranians are now waiting to see what the US reaction will be to this news.
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drajoshi
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:35 am

Oops!! Iran FM tweets that human error brought down the aircraft.
https://on.rt.com/a8tm


Javad Zarif

@JZarif
A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:

Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster

Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.


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sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:37 am

I respect that they admitted fault. Many countries would never admit it, credit to them so that families can get closure and begin the healing process.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
djm18
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:38 am

From the Financial Times...

"Iran admits it mistakenly shot down Ukrainian jet"

"Iran admitted on Saturday that it mistakenly shot down a Ukraine International Airlines passenger jet, killing all 176 passengers and crew onboard."

"The armed forces joint staff in a statement on Saturday morning said “human error” caused the disaster and promised to bring those who made the mistake to justice and make reforms in its air defence system."
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:44 am

[twoid][/twoid]
edu2703 wrote:
Well, if someone pressed the launch button by mistake, I hope it is still alive, knowing the Iranian regime.

I hope there will be an investigation to find those responsible and that they will be prosecuted and punished.

:redflag:

Hold on there!

Will we be punishing a trained soldier that should have known better and acted extremely negligently?

Or

Scapegoat a poorly trained low ranking reservist trying his best to do his job off minimal sleep, pressure from multiple commanders, fear of imminent death from a US missile strike, etc that may have misread some interference on his scope?

You get the point. They may absolutely throw the book at the guy that shot the missile. They may even brag about how they brought him to justice unlike what the Americans did regarding IR655.

I'm not even saying the guy is innocent in the slightest. But it's something to be mindful of.

Maybe its the guy's supervisor's fault for putting the missiles on an automatic mode.
Maybe it's another operator's fault not properly screening the flights coming out of the airport.
Maybe it's the air defense command's fault for failing to take proper precautions and control their subordinate units
Maybe it's a high level politician's fault for allowing civilian traffic to fly during the aftermath of the missile strikes against the US in Iraq

The world isn't fair. The guilty may walk free and the innocent may take the blame. Already many innocent have died
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:49 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
:redflag:

Hold on there!

Will we be punishing a trained soldier that should have known better and acted extremely negligently?

Or

Scapegoat a poorly trained low ranking reservist trying his best to do his job off minimal sleep, pressure from multiple commanders, fear of imminent death from a US missile strike, etc that may have misread some interference on his scope?

You get the point. They may absolutely throw the book at the guy that shot the missile. They may even brag about how they brought him to justice unlike what the Americans did regarding IR655.

I'm not even saying the guy is innocent in the slightest. But it's something to be mindful of.

Maybe its the guy's supervisor's fault for putting the missiles on an automatic mode.
Maybe it's another operator's fault not properly screening the flights coming out of the airport.
Maybe it's the air defense command's fault for failing to take proper precautions and control their subordinate units
Maybe it's a high level politician's fault for allowing civilian traffic to fly during the aftermath of the missile strikes against the US in Iraq

The world isn't fair. The guilty may walk free and the innocent may take the blame. Already many innocent have died


Couldn't have said it better myself. The grieving families should now be compensated to the fullest extent and be offered counseling. Lessons must be learned from this tragic incident and politicians in both the US and Iran should resolve never to escalate this far again to prevent any more innocent people from dying.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
flyer56
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:49 am

Relieved Iran overcame their internal issues and came out with the truth. Better for the families and frankly better for Iran as a nation.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:52 am

I'm surprised they admitted to it. I thought they were going to pull a 'Putin' and keep flatly denying despite an avalanche of evidence.
At least they are doing the right thing... just too little too late.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
cannedtuna
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:55 am

Began lurking here when I saw early reports about the downed plane the night it happened.

Wanted to chime in here about the odd transponder data vanishing at the 2:44AM UTC on FR24.

I saw someone mention a missed/dud missile hypothesis, but that hypothesis didn't make any sense to me.

Has someone else put forth a hypothesis that vulnerabilities in ADS-B could've been exploited by Iranian military? After all, Iran have hijacked US UAV in 2011 and downed the drone by exploiting ADS-B. (e.g. Iran-US RQ-1720 incident).

I've seen and read several exploit whitepapers surrounding ADS-B and saw message deletion vulnerability can be exploited effortlessly, causing the plane to disappear off the map.
Last edited by cannedtuna on Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
airzona11
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:58 am

Tragic for those who were murdered and their loved ones. I’m sure the pilots did what they could to try and survive. Good detective work to those on this site who pieced this conclusion together early on. Hopefully the world is not fooled by the posturing the Iranian government is doing.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:00 am

So no conspiracy theorist have yet arrived to claim that they are only admitting this because they are getting something else in return?
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:04 am

Francoflier wrote:
I'm surprised they admitted to it. I thought they were going to pull a 'Putin' and keep flatly denying despite an avalanche of evidence.
At least they are doing the right thing... just too little too late.


I thought it was about 50-50, it was going to snowball for them if they lied about it though. Too many people already had access to the crash site, their own citizens seemed to already suspect it. They would have lost too much trust from their own people if they kept trying to cover it up.

It's still good to see them being honest and up-front about it. This also means they can now take steps to prevent it from ever happening again because they aren't pretending it didn't happen.
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aryonoco
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:06 am

As an Iranian, this hurts.

As a human, this hurts.

I had a couple of friends-of-friends on the plane. I hope their families and loved ones can now have some form of closure.

Civilians paying the price of old men playing war games. What a shame.
 
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:14 am

 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:20 am

President Rouhani admits the shoot down on Twitter
https://twitter.com/hassanrouhani/statu ... 23872?s=21
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Dieuwer
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:36 am

Very impressed by the admission of Iran.
Putin (MH17) could learn a thing or two from them.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:46 am

aryonoco wrote:
As an Iranian, this hurts.

As a human, this hurts.

I had a couple of friends-of-friends on the plane. I hope their families and loved ones can now have some form of closure.

Civilians paying the price of old men playing war games. What a shame.


I think the situation did cause a de-escalation of tensions, it seems to have caused all parties involved to stand down. The death of innocent civilians sobers people up real quick.
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sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:48 am

Jouhou wrote:
I think the situation did cause a de-escalation of tensions, it seems to have caused all parties involved to stand down. The death of innocent civilians sobers people up real quick.


I truly wish politicians could have deescalated tensions without getting to this point. Heartbreaking.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
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zkojq
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:48 am

I'm glad that they've come clean about it. Shame they didn't do so earlier. Hopefully this makes it easier for the victims families to find peace and closure.


Exeiowa wrote:
I was wondering if the Iranians were targeting something else in the area (Drone trying to hide in amongst civilian traffic for example) and hit the civilian plane instead.


I think this is probably a given. Would be very surprised if US, Israel or Saudi didn't have a drone of somekind high up overhead. Maybe all three. Obviously everyone will deny that so we will never find out. Still, even the presence of a foreign military aircraft doesn't exactly absolve the AA operator for misidentifying the target.

PixelFlight wrote:
"The wreckage of the plane is raked by bulldozers, they don’t show us the cockpit," - a source in the interagency commission of Ukraine

"We don’t understand, they don’t show us the cabin, because they study something themselves, or because it is completely destroyed by the explosion? At the moment, we have not been presented with any evidence of the version that Iran originally put forward - about the technical reasons for the incident,"


cpd wrote:
southsidesilver wrote:
Am I reading right in that the area the crash has taken place has just been left, no security, not cordoned off to stop people going into it ?


Seems that way. All cleared away, nothing to see here.

Speaks of a cover up to me.


heyjoojoo wrote:
wow... pretty incredible to clean away the debris within 48 hours like that... I guess when you're looking to withhold evidence, that's what is normally done. So sad. How does Iran expect us to see them in the most positive of light when they do deeds like this...


flybucky wrote:
Fair enough. As long as it is being cataloged and allow foreign investigators full access to them. We will see though. According to the Ukrainian investigators have not been satisfied by the process:


The bulldozing allegation has been debunked by Ukraine's embassy:

Ukraine's FM @VPrystaiko: "Our team does not confirm the photographs of bulldozers in their area. You have to understand that it's a very big territory, there are a lot of airplane debris around. But Ukrainian experts are working directly at the crash site"


https://twitter.com/UKRintheUSA/status/ ... 2228356097

flybucky wrote:
ptwings wrote:
The Iranian military was so apprehensive about the threat of an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear installations in 2007 and 2008 that it mistakenly fired on civilian airliners and, in one instance, on one of its own military aircraft, according to classified American intelligence reports. The civilian planes were fired on by surface-to-air missiles and antiaircraft batteries
Yikes, so they were just super lucky that all of them missed?


Very sad that nothing seems to have been learned.

southsidesilver wrote:
But its still odd to leave the area where the plane crashed, even though they picked up parts just as it is.


How long should it be left at the crash site? Given that the plane came down right by a residential neighborhood, it's hardly viable to leave it there forever,

litz wrote:
Many people don't realize ... Iran actually has at least one ski resort with ... apparently ... pretty good skiing.

(and at least one seriously hanky ex-US YAN chair lift ... they were known for grip slippage, which isn't very good if you're in the chair sliding down the cable)


Saw a video about this at a Thai Restaurant in Queenstown a few years back. The video had no sound so it took me ages to work out what country it was in.

MR27122 wrote:
For purposes of clarity....
The USA never accepted legal blame or apologized to Iran re: Flt 655. The Vincennes "strong" crew shot down an Iranian pax A300 over Iranian International Waters in broad daylight. Furthermore the target the Vincennes "strong" crew believed the A300 to be was strictly Air-to-Air & not Air-to-Ground. Stated more plainly, the "strong" US Navy shot down an Iranian airliner, that if it were indeed a military aircraft, posed zero threat to the Vincennes...& they did so over Iranian "territory". The Commander of the Vincennes remained in-command for the remainder of the deployment & was subsequently awarded the Legion of Merit.

Suggesting the US "came clean" is contrary to historical fact.

My purpose for posting is not to be "pro" any Sovereign Nation....it's for clarity re: Flt 655 facts. An apex modern US Warship v. aging/antiquated surface-to-air...same result (should that end w/ an explanation-point or question-mark)

:checkmark:

heyjoojoo wrote:
They may not like to be told what to do. But we don't like to have our embassies bombed either. That's how wars start.


I'm guessing that they probably don't like having their general's assassinated, but that's just my speculation.

SFOtoORD wrote:
zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:

Russian state media really .....
Ok, no "bulldozer".

CBS News reports: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/ ... 3961630720


There is a significant difference between bulldozing a site which implies earthworks to bury evidence and what that tweet says “ Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday”.

If people wanted to look for explosive residue that will still be present on the smaller pieces there as well as on the passengers and crew.

The mix of propellant and explosive used in these missiles is easily identifiable. You don’t need large parts to identify it. Swabbing the passengers and crew as well as the smaller pieces is more than enough.


You’re being pedantic and it’s a foolish response. It’s crystal clear this site is not being properly handled. Feel free to choose whatever words you want, but this is a cover up.


Not a very good coverup if you admit responsibility...

DeltaMD90 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
edu2703 wrote:
Well, if someone pressed the launch button by mistake, I hope it is still alive, knowing the Iranian regime.

I hope there will be an investigation to find those responsible and that they will be prosecuted and punished.

:redflag:

Hold on there!

Will we be punishing a trained soldier that should have known better and acted extremely negligently?

Or

Scapegoat a poorly trained low ranking reservist trying his best to do his job off minimal sleep, pressure from multiple commanders, fear of imminent death from a US missile strike, etc that may have misread some interference on his scope?

You get the point. They may absolutely throw the book at the guy that shot the missile. They may even brag about how they brought him to justice unlike what the Americans did regarding IR655.

I'm not even saying the guy is innocent in the slightest. But it's something to be mindful of.

Maybe its the guy's supervisor's fault for putting the missiles on an automatic mode.
Maybe it's another operator's fault not properly screening the flights coming out of the airport.
Maybe it's the air defense command's fault for failing to take proper precautions and control their subordinate units
Maybe it's a high level politician's fault for allowing civilian traffic to fly during the aftermath of the missile strikes against the US in Iraq

The world isn't fair. The guilty may walk free and the innocent may take the blame. Already many innocent have died


Indeed and I'm guessing that the person who pulled the trigger is probably feeling absolutely awful about killing 170 innocent civilians and likely will for the rest of their life.
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Strato2
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:56 am

sonicruiser wrote:
I respect that they admitted fault. Many countries would never admit it, credit to them so that families can get closure and begin the healing process.


After lying for three days.
 
airboss787
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:57 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
keesje wrote:
They'll know soon enough what happened. Wreckage & FDR's are in.Those FDR's can be analyzed everywhere.

Based on a video clip (real?) I would say starboard CFM uncountained failure, a fire progressing & reaching the wing tank shortly before crash.


Oops

https://twitter.com/hassanrouhani/statu ... 9423823872


This thread has had so many crash experts it is amazing. The amount of posts that confidently said exactly what went wrong was astonishing. I dont think I have seen so many "experts" for previous incidents like these. What happened to waiting atleast a few days before jumping to conclusions, to respect the victims.
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11C
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:00 am

MR27122 wrote:
11C wrote:
airhansa wrote:

I actually think that these incidents would be caught by openly available civilian satellites - and hence they'd be visible to even small intelligence agencies let alone the likes of the UK or France (and India). I don't consider Russia doing such a thing since allies are important to it. China may do only if it sees value in supporting Chinese growth.

India might be in a good position to take a stance on this. It's historically a non-aligned country and now it's seeking to be a multi-aligned country. It's history of providing moral/social support to all sides might make it a good candidate to release information on a geopolitical that is viewed by both sides as seeking justice.

http://www.businesstoday.in/current/wor ... 93361.html


As pointed out by others, commercial satellites are launched to make money. Missile launch detection, and especially in a specific country is a military mission, not a commercially viable mission for a civilian satellite. And if you don’t think Russia spies on, or monitors its “allies” I suggest you do some reading on the subject. You will find plenty of evidence that virtually all countries with sufficient resources spy on each other, allies are not exempt. In any case, it sure looks like an SA-15 seeker head in the ditch. If that was faked, it’s right up there with the LAPD pre-planting blood evidence at OJ’s house. Not likely. The actions of the Iranian government since the crash certainly are consistent with an uncoordinated response in the first hours, followed by a more coordinated, consistent message. In other words, after screwing up, and shooting down a jetliner, their first response was to deny, obfuscate, blame others. It reeks of guilt. The initial response, as others have noted, was similar by the US government when we shot down an airliner. The big difference ultimately will be that the US came clean. I’m not sure if a weak, totalitarian, religious regime can afford to do the same. But, we shall see.


For purposes of clarity....
The USA never accepted legal blame or apologized to Iran re: Flt 655. The Vincennes "strong" crew shot down an Iranian pax A300 over Iranian International Waters in broad daylight. Furthermore the target the Vincennes "strong" crew believed the A300 to be was strictly Air-to-Air & not Air-to-Ground. Stated more plainly, the "strong" US Navy shot down an Iranian airliner, that if it were indeed a military aircraft, posed zero threat to the Vincennes...& they did so over Iranian "territory". The Commander of the Vincennes remained in-command for the remainder of the deployment & was subsequently awarded the Legion of Merit.

Suggesting the US "came clean" is contrary to historical fact.

This was a tragedy that occurred in a very rapid--USA initiated/escalated "atmosphere".

The "calendar" simply didn't "work out" for the victims....from what I've read, many were visiting Iran during a holiday-break. Jan 3, 2020 the USA assassinates Gen Soleimani in Iraq (Provoked by? Reporting suggests this "action" was decided upon by one-person who had been offered a "menu" of options w/ assassination being the ultimate/nuclear offering & those who presented the menu were shocked by the decision to take this "menu" option). Jan 8, 2020 Iran---as EXPECTED---retaliates by targeting USA military targets in Iraq. What is questionable? Why would ANY airline conduct operations out of what immediately---upon expected Iranian retaliation---became a hot/war zone?

My purpose for posting is not to be "pro" any Sovereign Nation....it's for clarity re: Flt 655 facts. An apex modern US Warship v. aging/antiquated surface-to-air...same result (should that end w/ an explanation-point or question-mark)

-USMA '92


Admitted it? That’s what I meant. Not sure what you took as my meaning. I don’t think anything about it was ok.
 
Seat1F
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:04 am

sevenair wrote:
Shame on those of you claiming it was all a fake and the overwhelming evidence was photoshopped and faked literally right up until the moment Iran admitted it.

I have to agree with you on this. I was stunned at the number of posters who refused to see this for what it was: A civilian airliner shot out of the sky by Iran. Sad how people can't see the forest through the trees so frequently these days.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:15 am

Iranian TV reports the following in Farsi but I can roughly translate:

Official reason given for the shootdown was that PS752 realized it was carrying too much fuel (due to fuel being cheaper in Iran) and planned to return to the airport. They deviated from their expected flightpath and PS752 was mistakenly shot down.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
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KPDX
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:17 am

Seat1F wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Shame on those of you claiming it was all a fake and the overwhelming evidence was photoshopped and faked literally right up until the moment Iran admitted it.

I have to agree with you on this. I was stunned at the number of posters who refused to see this for what it was: A civilian airliner shot out of the sky by Iran. Sad how people can't see the forest through the trees so frequently these days.


I echo this. They will never admit how ridiculous they sounded defending Iran in this painfully obvious situation.
 
Blankbarcode
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:18 am

Seat1F wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Shame on those of you claiming it was all a fake and the overwhelming evidence was photoshopped and faked literally right up until the moment Iran admitted it.

I have to agree with you on this. I was stunned at the number of posters who refused to see this for what it was: A civilian airliner shot out of the sky by Iran. Sad how people can't see the forest through the trees so frequently these days.


Hopefully you're not lumping in those who were cautious to jump to a conclusion either way, given how dangerous assumptions can be in a politically unstable environment.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:29 am

They've gained some respect back as a civilised country for admitting it

If they hadn't could you ever trust them as a country to ever visit or do business with

It makes long term political sense to admit it and try and build some bridges etc

I don't really see them blaming anyone in their statement. I just see them apologising for their terrible mistake

Now they can move on. I'm so sorry for all the families who can't. I guess the apology and truth will help those families slightly as at least they have nothing to fight now or try to have to prove.
Last edited by Interested on Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
klwright69
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:30 am

Given the circumstances, a conclusion is easily reached when then the facts are obvious and in your face. It's normal to jump to conclusions in the situation.
The first impression turned out to be the correct one here.
It's a bit too soon to talk about healing and closure. But you want to say something comforting, of course.
I feel awful, and I didn't even know anyone on that flight.
 
zkncj
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:30 am

Now that Iran has admitted this, does say the IACO come out with blacklisting air travel to/from Iran and going via there Airspace.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:33 am

Blankbarcode wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
sevenair wrote:
Shame on those of you claiming it was all a fake and the overwhelming evidence was photoshopped and faked literally right up until the moment Iran admitted it.

I have to agree with you on this. I was stunned at the number of posters who refused to see this for what it was: A civilian airliner shot out of the sky by Iran. Sad how people can't see the forest through the trees so frequently these days.


Hopefully you're not lumping in those who were cautious to jump to a conclusion either way, given how dangerous assumptions can be in a politically unstable environment.


I don't think so. The majority of us were pretty convinced it was a shoot down from early on, but leaving open the possibility there was some other explanation. We had pretty much discussed every other possibility we could think of and nothing else seemed to plausibly fit the evidence we had. The only other plausible possibility was a bomb, but that was far less likely than an accidental shoot down given the situation and the particular aircraft downed.

When the U.S. made statements about having picked up radar and heat signatures, that's when all the skeptics flooded the thread. It was highly political. As much as the mods may try to cut the politics out of the threads not everyone is even self aware enough to realize their stance is politically motivated and its too indirect for mods to reject. People weren't necessarily defending Iran, they had a weird visceral negative reaction to the US, which is unfortunate.

However, if you go back before that announcement in the thread, it's mostly to the effect of "It certainly looks like it was shot down, but let's explore any other possible explanations"
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flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:33 am

chiawei wrote:
Well- it’s kind of hard when evidence is overwhelming

Plenty of countries will deny an event despite overwhelming evidence. So I give Iran some credit for admitting it.

But their claim that "The Ukrainian flight took off from Imam Khomeini Airport and came close to a sensitive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military center at an altitude and flight condition that resembled hostile targeting, which led to it getting unintentionally hit" is totally bogus.

FR24 published a graph of all PS752 departure paths (track as well as altitude) from Nov 2 to Jan 8. The Jan 8 flight was right in the middle of the normal track and altitude.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 7942349825

Also, the Jan 8 flight had similar track to the previous flights that morning as well.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067

There was nothing abnormal whatsoever about the Jan 8 flight when it was fired upon. I guess technically you could say that it could have come "close to a sensitive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military center at an altitude and flight condition that resembled hostile targeting", but that would true for most flights that take off from IKA every day.
 
UPS757Pilot
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:35 am

Still not convinced it was accidental.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:36 am

Interested wrote:
They've gained some respect back as a civilised country for admitting it

If they hadn't could you ever trust them as a country to ever visit or do business with

It makes long term political sense to admit it and try and build some bridges etc

I don't really see them blaming anyone in their statement. I just see them apologising for their terrible mistake

Now they can move on. I'm so sorry for all the families who can't. I guess the apology and truth will help those families slightly as at least they have nothing to fight now or try to have to prove.


See soniccruiser's post. They are blaming the flight crew.
 
flybucky
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:39 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Iranian TV reports the following in Farsi but I can roughly translate:

Official reason given for the shootdown was that PS752 realized it was carrying too much fuel (due to fuel being cheaper in Iran) and planned to return to the airport. They deviated from their expected flightpath and PS752 was mistakenly shot down.

"They deviated from their expected flightpath"

No they didn't. FR24 published the path of the previous 45 flights for PS752. The Jan 8 was exactly the same as the others.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 7942349825

The "deviation from their expected flightpath" was after it was hit by a missile.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:44 am

UPS757Pilot wrote:
Still not convinced it was accidental.


It wasn't accidental in that they accidentally pulled the trigger. They meant to do that however they thought the target was an enemy aircraft.

I'm no Iran apologist (unlike many Iran fanboys we see on here) but I respect their admitting of the attrocity.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:47 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Iranian TV reports the following in Farsi but I can roughly translate:

Official reason given for the shootdown was that PS752 realized it was carrying too much fuel (due to fuel being cheaper in Iran) and planned to return to the airport. They deviated from their expected flightpath and PS752 was mistakenly shot down.

Because that makes sense.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
aircatalonia
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:48 am

UPS757Pilot wrote:
Still not convinced it was accidental.


Many flights departed Tehran that morning. The FR24 departure board was posted in this thread but dont remember where... Indeed it's a strange coincidence that they only shot at the closest American ally. Aeroflot and others departed safely before Ukranian.
 
Interested
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:53 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Interested wrote:
They've gained some respect back as a civilised country for admitting it

If they hadn't could you ever trust them as a country to ever visit or do business with

It makes long term political sense to admit it and try and build some bridges etc

I don't really see them blaming anyone in their statement. I just see them apologising for their terrible mistake

Now they can move on. I'm so sorry for all the families who can't. I guess the apology and truth will help those families slightly as at least they have nothing to fight now or try to have to prove.


See soniccruiser's post. They are blaming the flight crew.


You say "blaming"

They are trying to explain it as part of an apology the way I read it. I'd call it more like an excuse than blaming anybody.

Whether it's true or not is another matter

But the overall tone of what they are saying is theyve made a mistake and they are sorry

Which is good enough for me

Uptil this statement I thought they were going to keep denying
Last edited by Interested on Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:54 am

aircatalonia wrote:
UPS757Pilot wrote:
Still not convinced it was accidental.


Many flights departed Tehran that morning. The FR24 departure board was posted in this thread but dont remember where... Indeed it's a strange coincidence that they only shot at the closest American ally. Aeroflot and others departed safely before Ukranian.

Here comes the tinfoil hats...

There were also three Turkish flights (KK 1185, TK 873, TK 875) and a German flight (LH 601), which are NATO members and closer allies to America than Ukraine. Heck, even Austria (OS 872) should be considered closer to the US than Ukraine
Last edited by kennethP3 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:56 am

Apparently Ukraine Airlines is known for fuel smuggling and frequently sends pax bags a few days later in place of filling up tanks more than the route requires since Iranian fuel is cheaper. For some reason, they had to return to the airport this time.

According to the investigation team, the missile was fired after the plane changed trajectory.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
gloom
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:01 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Scapegoat a poorly trained low ranking reservist


Said it before - that's a massive coordinated point defense system, quite capable and quite advanced. And most important - you take decision in seconds, because the sytsem is ready in few seconds.You don't sit a reservist on a seat like this. If it was army, or Revolution Guards, that's another story.

On the other hand, on Polish forum one man did some calculations. It seems the missiles were fired only few seconds from plane appearing. It seems there was no delay at all, plane appeared on scope after departure/entering visibility range, and only a few seconds later missiles depart. It seems no one expected the plane, not a single idea it is a civil plane. Some nice pictures (altitude vs visibility from site), and numbers in the post (Polish, but translate should do the trick).
http://lotnictwo.net.pl/3-tematy_ogolne ... ost1372677

Cheers,
Adam
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:03 am

kennethP3 wrote:
aircatalonia wrote:
UPS757Pilot wrote:
Still not convinced it was accidental.


Many flights departed Tehran that morning. The FR24 departure board was posted in this thread but dont remember where... Indeed it's a strange coincidence that they only shot at the closest American ally. Aeroflot and others departed safely before Ukranian.

Here comes the tinfoil hats...

There were also three Turkish flights (KK 1185, TK 873, TK 875) and a German flight (LH 601), which are NATO members and closer allies to America than Ukraine. Heck, even Austria (OS 872) should be considered closer to the US than Ukraine


If I'd wanted to make a statement, I'd have taken Lufty down. Striking at the heart of Europe. An ally of the US closer than Ukraine. A NATO member.

It was accidental. A
 
anrec80
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:08 am

aircatalonia wrote:
Many flights departed Tehran that morning. The FR24 departure board was posted in this thread but dont remember where... Indeed it's a strange coincidence that they only shot at the closest American ally. Aeroflot and others departed safely before Ukranian.


That could have been any flight, just happened to be Ukrainian. I as well respect Iranian leadership admitting the mistake.
Last edited by anrec80 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:23 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Apparently Ukraine Airlines is known for fuel smuggling and frequently sends pax bags a few days later in place of filling up tanks more than the route requires since Iranian fuel is cheaper. For some reason, they had to return to the airport this time.

According to the investigation team, the missile was fired after the plane changed trajectory.


No. The plane was on track. Being hit by one or more missiles was the cause of deviating from track.

I don't understand why you'd need to go back because you have too much fuel? For starters you're likely going to need to do an overweight landing. And if you do sense you're too heavy, perhaps it's not the best idea to be low and slow making another approach.

Or if it was a tech fault, you don't go north and do a 180, toward the high ground and toward the other airport whose departure track you're likely to cross. It makes no sense. You go south just like numerous SIDs do. I've checked the IKA charts. The AOI mentions strolling dogs yet mentions no reason for not flying to the south.

It seems whenever there's a plane crash there's often talk of a so called 'turn back'. Sadly, it's rarely the case.
Last edited by sevenair on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:23 am

It looks like pretty much all the passengers were Iranian or of Iranian-descent. So ultimately Iran has killed +150 Iranians. The outcome was not very different than if they had destroyed a Mahan Air or Iran Air plane.

So maybe this is also a way to content local Iranians and Iranian diaspora.
 
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dara88
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:27 am

drajoshi wrote:
Oops!! Iran FM tweets that human error brought down the aircraft.
https://on.rt.com/a8tm


Javad Zarif

@JZarif
A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:

Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster

Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.


Twitter Ads info and privacy


Sad day... for the whole world.. Unbelievable
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:31 am

sevenair wrote:
No. The plane was on track. Being hit by one or more missiles was the cause of deviating from track.


From what I can tell watching Iranian TV, the missile being fired after the plane changed trajectory is new information discovered by the investigation team.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

You can sanction people, but you can't sanction style
 
cpd
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:33 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Iranian TV reports the following in Farsi but I can roughly translate:

Official reason given for the shootdown was that PS752 realized it was carrying too much fuel (due to fuel being cheaper in Iran) and planned to return to the airport. They deviated from their expected flightpath and PS752 was mistakenly shot down.


That's a strange reason to turn back. Why wouldn't they just fly on to the destination and at least burn off some of the fuel load during the flight instead of returning immediately with a very high amount of fuel onboard?

What cannot be argued is Iran shot down a lot of its own people. That's an enormous price to pay. May all the victims rest in peace. At least they've admitted it and the families will get some closure.

I hope this might bring the opposing sides back to the negotiating table.
Last edited by cpd on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:36 am

sonicruiser wrote:
sevenair wrote:
No. The plane was on track. Being hit by one or more missiles was the cause of deviating from track.


From what I can tell watching Iranian TV, the missile being fired after the plane changed trajectory is new information discovered by the investigation team.


Flightradar24 has debunked that claim in their latest tweet.
 
sevenair
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:38 am

sonicruiser wrote:
sevenair wrote:
No. The plane was on track. Being hit by one or more missiles was the cause of deviating from track.


From what I can tell watching Iranian TV, the missile being fired after the plane changed trajectory is new information discovered by the investigation team.


Is that the same Iranian TV that were telling us that it crashed due to engine failure just hours after the crash?

Tracks of PS742 the previous day's show it was where it was meant to be and only veered off course once it was disabled by one or more missiles.

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