Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:25 pm

flybucky wrote:
gloom wrote:
I have not seen anywhere this image referenced: https://i.ibb.co/GC8xfsC/yyy3.jpg

It sure helps to know that it's not like Tor crewmen knew all the time the traffic is coming along. They've only noticed the airplane when 752 crossed approx 1800m, and during acceleration phase. With vertical speed fluctuating. I'm not saying they were right to fire, just pointing out at this point the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating. It was not a clear picture, certainly.

Picture rights: murdoc from Polish forum.

Interesting graphic. From what I can understand, the thick red line is the pressure altitude of PS752. I suppose the "terrain map" shows the radar visibility from the Tor vehicle because it was blocked by mountains. 25 km is the distance from the airport that the missile struck.

"the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating"

Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752? https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067

Maybe there was a shift change at 06:00? The last plane to take off before 752 departed at 05:40
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:36 pm

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/0 ... -ne-terakt

Andrey Gorbachevsky, engineer, radar developer.

- Andrei Alekseevich, what does the video published by The New York Times tell you about? Does it really look like a missile attack?

..., judging by the outbreak, this missile is not portable, but quite a serious air defense system. Just like "Tor." If this, I emphasize, is really reliable shooting.

- If this is a mistake, then it’s grossest. The rudest. Incredibly rude. Because the Tor-M1 air defense system itself is a serious expensive complex. And that he mistakenly took and shot down a passenger plane - it is very unlikely. This is such a crawler-like tractor, similar to a tank. And on this “tank” are both a survey locator, that is, one that spins and continuously watches the situation around, and a guidance radar with a very narrow beam. The beam width is 1 degree. And when the target is found, a rocket is aimed at it by this narrow beam. That is, the probability that some other goal is caught is negligible.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.

Question: Could the Iranian air defense worked by mistake, because after the shelling of American bases, the United States was preparing for retaliatory attacks?

- No, launching a rocket is not possible without an indication of the crew commander.

This is the so-called short-range air defense system. That is, its firing range is not more than 12 kilometers. This means that he was close enough to the plane... here the distance is - well ... five kilometers, ten. How a crew commander could confuse a passenger plane with something else is incredible to me. The biggest mistake.
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:51 pm

SORRY MODERATORS FOR LONG POST, THE AUTOMATIC PAGE TRANSLATE DOESN’T WORK SO I DID IT ALL MANUALLY, AS THE LINK IS IN RUSSIAN AND NO ONE COULD READ IT OTHERWISE.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/0 ... s-granatoy

*******It essentially says no one could confuse a passenger plane with a cruise missile under any circumstances.*******************

Andrei Gorbachevsky explains how the Iranian air defense could have made such a mistake.

The flight of Ukrainian Airlines from Tehran was regular. All scheduled flights in the country's air defense system are recorded. The SAM commander compares the received mark of the target with marks that should go on schedule. At a certain time, the plane takes off from the airport - and the commander of the SAM system knows: this is such a flight.

- The Ukrainian plane took off with a delay of about an hour. “It doesn’t matter, the message to the commander should have been received anyway.” But the point is not even in the schedule. The plane took off from a civilian airfield and went along a standard highway. A passenger plane cannot fly anyhow, it goes along a dedicated corridor.

The commander of the air defense system’s crew must see that the target is in the corridor allocated for passenger aircraft. This alone should show him: before him is not some American drone, but a civilian airliner.

Next - the plane took off. At a certain height, he gains a certain speed. The crew commander immediately correlates: if the target goes at such a height and at such a speed, then it is most likely civilian.

- In addition, transponders are on passenger planes. - Mandatory. And on the air defense system is a state recognition system - such a "requestor" of data from this transponder. And she had to recognize the plane as a civilian. But Iran may have its own state recognition system, different from the standard NATO one. That is, Iran could create for itself a special system that does not coincide in frequency with NATO. - What for? - So that the enemy could not interfere with their system with interference. –

Just one of the versions is that they did not recognize the passenger plane due to interference. It turns out that there could be no interference.

- I can’t say exactly what state recognition system is in Iran. But, for example, in Russia such a system for military aircraft differs from NATO. Therefore, in addition to our own system, we put a second one, which reads the data of civilian aircraft. So it was accepted back in the Soviet Union, when we did everything differently than in NATO. And what was there with the state recognition system when we delivered Tor air defense systems to Iran? The Iranians could well put some of their own. - But you have already mentioned other degrees of protection, in addition to the state recognition system. - That's right. Therefore, I can only repeat that the mistake is gross. Incredible.

- Just one of the versions is that they did not recognize the passenger plane due to interference. It turns out that there could be no interference? - I can’t say exactly what state recognition system is in Iran. But, for example, in Russia such a system for military aircraft differs from NATO. Therefore, in addition to our own system, we put a second one, which reads the data of civilian aircraft. So it was accepted back in the Soviet Union, when we did everything differently than in NATO. And what was there with the state recognition system when we delivered Tor air defense systems to Iran? The Iranians could well put some of their own.

- But you have already mentioned other degrees of protection, in addition to the state recognition system.

- That's right. Therefore, I can only repeat that the mistake is gross. Incredible.

- And yet, since they still haven’t fired on each aircraft, the Iranians have some kind of system. Why didn’t she block the launch of the rocket? - This may indicate some kind of malfunction. This means that the Iranians do not have service personnel who would monitor the status of all air defense systems. - But there are probably Russian instructors there too? - How do Russian instructors work - you saw it when the Syrians shot down the IL-20. It was also a gross mistake, although still less gross than in this case. - Iran claims that the passenger Boeing was mistaken for a US cruise missile. Can they be mixed up at all?

- No one could confuse a passenger plane with a cruise missile under any circumstances. Unless it was just a monkey with a grenade, but a drunk monkey with a grenade. This means that Iran no longer knows what to lie.

At the Tor air defense system, as I told you last time, there are two locators. One is a panoramic one that rotates continuously and captures everything that flies around. When the plane took off from the airfield, the survey locator saw it in twenty seconds. And then all the while the plane flew, all six minutes, on the screen of the surveillance radar was the track. That is, from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

- Of course. While only the survey locator was working, one would still think that something military was flying next to a civilian plane. But then the missile guidance locator turns on. The missile is aimed at the target by a very narrow beam, of the order of one degree wide. He distinguishes everything so well that there can already be no mistake. The probability that not only a civilian aircraft, but also something else military will fall into this beam is zero.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:15 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
SORRY MODERATORS FOR LONG POST, THE AUTOMATIC PAGE TRANSLATE DOESN’T WORK SO I DID IT ALL MANUALLY, AS THE LINK IS IN RUSSIAN AND NO ONE COULD READ IT OTHERWISE.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/0 ... s-granatoy

*******It essentially says no one could confuse a passenger plane with a cruise missile under any circumstances.*******************

[...]

Thanks for the link and analysis.

There's some other stuff on there. If I understand this correctly, the guy also dismisses the notion that the airliner was intentionally shot down. One, because there would be too much evidence that it was hit by AA, like the shrapnel holes in the wreckage, which couldn't be mistaken for anything else.

The other reason is that two missiles were fired at the plane, and this wouldn't be done if they were targeting a civilian craft. This would only be done against a military target, which are smaller and much more maneuverable, making evasion more likely. More than one shot would be needed to ensure it goes down
 
User avatar
remcor
Posts: 374
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 9:25 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:19 pm

New York Times today released a video "visual investigation" up where they go through what they think happened. It's interesting:
https://youtu.be/tcFn6KsxOgo
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:34 pm

@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.
 
User avatar
TheLunchbox
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:54 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.


Well it was pitch black so i'm not so sure what you're looking at with binoculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
katekebo
Posts: 681
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2001 12:02 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 pm

One important thing to consider is the very short time that the missile crew has to decide if to launch the missile or not. TOR's effective range is 12 km. Detection range is probably somewhat bigger, but not much. For an incoming missile flying ~500 knots, it's ~60 sec from detection to impact. Considering that the missile has be launched before the attacking missile or aircraft gets too close, the crew literally has a less than 30 sec window to decide between "kill or get killed". 30 sec to identify the incoming aircraft, confirm if it is a threat, perform whatever manual tasks are needed to lock on the target and launch the missile. There is no time for telephone calls, asking for confirmation or lengthy analysis. The crew is trained to perform memorized tasks like a machine - it's "do or die" dituation, not thinking time. Any hesitation or delay can mean death.

Of course, this does not justify the action. But it explains why the missile operator pushed the "launch" button. He was performing things he was trained to do. Based on how tense the situation was and the expected imminent retaliation from US side, he erred on side of safety (his own, not the passengers).

The real failure is on the command side that did not properly prepared for such situation. It could be lack of long range radar to identify and assess potential threats with sufficient time (minutes, not seconds), proper training about routine departure routes and flight profiles from the airport for the missile crew, positive radio confirmation about every departing airplane, etc., etc. There is a number of procedural and technical things that could have been implemented to prevent a tragic event like this one, and most likely they were missing. It is a much larger structural and organization problem than just a "trigger happy" missile operator.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.

What does any faction of the military hope to accomplish by shooting down a civilian plane from a neutral country and full of Iranian civilians?
 
User avatar
SuseJ772
Posts: 998
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:13 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:19 am

remcor wrote:
New York Times today released a video "visual investigation" up where they go through what they think happened. It's interesting:
https://youtu.be/tcFn6KsxOgo


That is interesting. I didn’t realize it was still airborne for another 5 minutes. Also, with only a 1,500’ foot debris field, and the relatively shallow “dive”, and the fact bodies (at least some) still had some figure to them in the body bags, I wonder if there was more control til the end than (at least I) initially thought.

I also wonder if the second explosion was of (the reported) second missile or just the final explosion of the fuel tank.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
User avatar
SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2223
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:13 am

bristolflyer1 wrote:
"from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”
You seem to be assuming that their radar was able to pick up the Boeing 737 as soon it left the runway. :shakehead:
Are you familiar with the phrase "line-of-sight" in connection with radio/radar waves?
On another forum there is a nice graphic suggesting the Boeing 737 might have been hidden from view for some time by a piece of elevated ground (I might have called it a mountain, but it was probably just a molehill)
And then suddenly the Tor system starts flashing and beeping and you have just a few seconds to identify a "new" target - one that you have NOT been able to observe previously originating from IKA.

The answer of course is to position the Tor M1 launcher at the summit of the mountain, awarding it a fantastic field of fire, but leaving it a little... vulnerable. Which is why that doesn't happen too often.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_horizon

bristolflyer1 wrote:
He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.
Oh dear! Google Translate claims yet another victim.
Check the original Russian script, and search for alternative translations. Better still, ask an actual Russian speaker to explain whether they recognize any material difference between "sitting on" versus "sitting in" a vehicle. :scratchchin:
Failing that, put away your bias, and simply apply common sense. On what planet would you find military personnel sitting "on" their vehicle (whilst on combat duty) ?

Andrei Gorbachevsky wrote:
****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****

They "see" everything... that is displayed on the two radar displays in front of them.
One radar is wide angle with 360° coverage ("the big goal"), the other is "a very narrow beam, of the order of one degree wide"
(Another win for Google mis-Translate...)

And at 12km range on a dark night, you are not going to see much with the naked eye, or with standard binoculars, unless the 737 is side on and lit up like Xmas. (Spoiler alert; it was head-on)

(BTW you seem to have conveniently ignored the testimony of another Russian here on a.net - the one with personal experience who already explained to you that the missile operators were located inside a windowless compartment)

Target threat classification is automatic and the {Tor M1} system can be operated with little operator input, if desired.
Perhaps they placed a little too much trust in the machine?
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 681
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:04 am

kennethP3 wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.

What does any faction of the military hope to accomplish by shooting down a civilian plane from a neutral country and full of Iranian civilians?


You might ask what they are trying to accomplish shooting unarmed protesters in the streets?
 
IADCA
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:53 am

TheLunchbox wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.


Well it was pitch black so i'm not so sure what you're looking at with binoculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Those cute little red and green nav lights and flashing strobes that airliners have and cruise missiles don't would be pretty nice clues. The weather was clear, so you'd see them if you looked, especially with binoculars.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:14 am

I think a big issue here is long economic stress (for example in Venezuela too) would lead to a breakdown of military and other professional development, including things like medicine, ATC and parts of the military.

Certain countries run their aviation system very well, but non-rich countries do not have the MONEY to really professionalize everything the way we might expect. I do not believe anyone would intend to shoot down this airliner. It is just a display of sad and scary ineptitude by Iran state forces. It would be unrealistic to expect the level of costly training we do in the West. Nobody can afford that except rich countries. Most countries are literally just trying to keep up appearances. Iran is struggling because of its failed system, which is what caused the accident.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1739
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:27 am

LCDFlight wrote:
I think a big issue here is long economic stress (for example in Venezuela too) would lead to a breakdown of military and other professional development, including things like medicine, ATC and parts of the military.

Certain countries run their aviation system very well, but non-rich countries do not have the MONEY to really professionalize everything the way we might expect. I do not believe anyone would intend to shoot down this airliner. It is just a display of sad and scary ineptitude by Iran state forces. It would be unrealistic to expect the level of costly training we do in the West. Nobody can afford that except rich countries. Most countries are literally just trying to keep up appearances.


Iran has plenty of money, their problem is where they chose to spend it. The revolutionary guard is one of the main beneficiaries of their spending, so equipment and training should not be one of their problems. People really need to stop looking for excuses for an action that was inexcusable.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:35 am

yukimizake wrote:
airhansa wrote:
The key difference between the Iran Air incident and the Ukrainian International incident was that the Americans made multiple attempts to contact the aircraft before it was shotdown, and furthermore the Americans were shooting down an aircraft in a place where there was likely to be an attack, on the other hand the Iranians did not contact PS and shot it down in front of the country's biggest international airport!


Not on any standard civil aviation frequencies as the Vincennes was not equipped for doing so. Seven warnings were sent on military frequencies and three on the international distress frequency. The three on the international distress frequency were addressed to "unidentified Iranian aircraft" that the flightcrew of 655 did not recognize as being themselves.


It was in the middle of a war, in a region where air-to-ship missiles had been launched in the past, and there was already a measure put in place that all civilian aircraft had to follow the international distress frequency due to the previous two phrases I mentioned.
 
solarflyer22
Posts: 1517
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:07 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:49 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
flybucky wrote:
...
Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752?


It appears air defenses were told early morning is when usually cruise missiles would show up. Lack of experience/training, freshly setup site, heightened state of alert, lack of sleep and the feeling he is the last line of defense.


If you have been to Iran and seen the soldiers there, a lot of them are young, not college educated, possibly doing their mandatory national service etc., and its easy to see how this accident happened. They were expecting attacks, the US just days earlier had threatened to bomb their cultural sites (something particularly precious to Iranians) and it lead to a perfect storm. There is a reason why we have the term "trigger finger" and its because young armed men occasionally get it. No one even knows who fired the first shot in the US Revolutionary war.

I blame Iran for not closing the airspace at least until daylight so they could visually identify planes. The US assassination and 40 years of threats to bomb the country into oblivion certainly had an affect too. The Tor System was bought specifically to stop cruise missile attacks on the Leadership and the Nuclear Infrastructure which the US has threatened for 15 years now. Thats the entire adult lives for these kids manning these systems. For all they know that one missile is aimed at the President or Supreme Leader so they are going to shot if in doubt. As we've seen repeatedly, the US and Iran's hardliners bring out the worst in each other.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:32 am

solarflyer22 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
flybucky wrote:
...
Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752?


It appears air defenses were told early morning is when usually cruise missiles would show up. Lack of experience/training, freshly setup site, heightened state of alert, lack of sleep and the feeling he is the last line of defense.


If you have been to Iran and seen the soldiers there, a lot of them are young, not college educated, possibly doing their mandatory national service etc., and its easy to see how this accident happened. They were expecting attacks, the US just days earlier had threatened to bomb their cultural sites (something particularly precious to Iranians) and it lead to a perfect storm. There is a reason why we have the term "trigger finger" and its because young armed men occasionally get it. No one even knows who fired the first shot in the US Revolutionary war.

I blame Iran for not closing the airspace at least until daylight so they could visually identify planes. The US assassination and 40 years of threats to bomb the country into oblivion certainly had an affect too. The Tor System was bought specifically to stop cruise missile attacks on the Leadership and the Nuclear Infrastructure which the US has threatened for 15 years now. Thats the entire adult lives for these kids manning these systems. For all they know that one missile is aimed at the President or Supreme Leader so they are going to shot if in doubt. As we've seen repeatedly, the US and Iran's hardliners bring out the worst in each other.


I think there's more to it than that. I agree that most of the educated Iranians tend to leave the country, with the addition that the military may not be a desirable job (a similar situation exists in Europe), but I also believe that there must have been some reshuffle taking place with the "better trained" Tehran missile group moving to another location to fire missiles in Iraq.
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:37 am

After seeing the post earlier with the map and the terrain values I think I may have a theory.

Inexperienced, on edge Tor crew, possibly fresh from a shift change, unfamiliar with the area are on duty, they haven't seen the previous departures go overhead.

Aircraft comes into radar range from over the "mountain" headed in their direction and accelerating.

The Tor issues a false "incoming" alarm to the operator. (If it is like the Pantsir, this alarm is issued either when you detect radiation pointed at you OR the system calculates that one of the "blips" on the screen is coming at you. This "false alarm" does happen. Especially when a "fast" target appears nearby out of nowhere).

Above mentioned inexperienced and on edge operator shoots.

My two cents.

P.S. I guarantee you that the operator is inside the cabin! He has no immediate view of the sky! I've seen a Tor close up at MAKS, as many have here I am sure as well. How can the operator's station even be outside? Logically. It looks like several monitors with keypads.
Looks like there was some mistranslation from that Ukrainian article, because with everything else it is correct. But you are not "on" the tractor or tank or whatever it said there
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:06 am

Ok thanks a lot for the input. Tu24 obviously has more experience than me. What I understood by the article was that the operator would be inside the thing pictured (look like a tank to me). But there would be crew outside he would be talking to just a few feet away. Tu24 can you confirm that please? Or would it really have just been one person shut away with nobody else around?

I would expect the crew to have infrared binoculars. Anyway, the moon was nearly full and there would have been light pollution from Tehran, so it definitely would not have been pitch black. So the plane would have been seen by anyone outside: remember it was 7x bigger than a missile and only 4,000 feet above if we account for the terrain altitude.

As to who or why, IF this (or the comms jamming) was deliberate - the USA and Russia would gain from politically isolating Iran and destabilising the region. A rogue faction may have been unhappy with the stand down and wanted war.

I absolutely agree that the translation is inadequate, there is a better one (made by a Russian?) by Ele on pprune which says similar things to mine, but if anyone knows a Russian who can do a better job, it would be appreciated. TIA.
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:42 am

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Ok thanks a lot for the input. Tu24 obviously has more experience than me. What I understood by the article was that the operator would be inside the thing pictured (look like a tank to me). But there would be crew outside he would be talking to just a few feet away. Tu24 can you confirm that please? Or would it really have just been one person shut away with nobody else around?


To clarify: have seen Tor up close at MAKS that was off and been inside a first version Pantsir while it was running and tracking a single piston a/c around for calibration/testing purposes (funny they physically disconnected the rockets just in case ). So thats my experience, plus I asked a lot of questions ;)

Yes, on the Tor there are to ops stations inside the "tank", you can have the hatch open and have someone (or even a crowd of people) stand outside right beside if you want. I don't know what the Iranian procedures on that would be.
But look at this video https://youtu.be/QY_S01bcMPE
You probably don't want to be standing out and beside the machine when it starts launching rockets. At the very least it will be very, very loud.

P.S. Watched another video, bit starring the Tor-M2, so one that is newer that what the Iranians have. It does have an IR camera like what I talked about earlier.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:08 am

Watch this video https://youtu.be/OaCFZYzMXxk at:
6:20 - you get an idea of what the cabin area looks like.
11:45 - live fire exercises where they also show interior and there's a view from it's own IR camera as the intercepting missile tracks and hits the target. Also gives you an idea of why you probably don't want to be outside and nearby when it starts firing. Best case scenario you will be deaf for a day and have dust and sand in every orifice of your body.

So the sequence of target acquisition, lock on, fire and following after you fire would be displayed on that screen at 12:30.

Keep in mind you can abort at any time from when you fire untill the intercept.

This video again shows Tor-M2, not the M1 that Iranians have. So take it with a grain of salt.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Reddevil556
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:09 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:19 am

We need to quite using the term accidental, it was a mistake. An accident implies there was an “act of god” moment. For example a lightning strike or some other phenomenon outside of human control. A human decision was made to fire the missiles, establishing control. Human error and a mistake can be attributed to this, but it wasn’t an accident. Ok enough of my rant about word choice.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
Menelaos
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:52 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:38 am

jupiter2 wrote:
People really need to stop looking for excuses for an action that was inexcusable.


There is a difference between looking for excuses and looking for explanations.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:14 pm

Yeah I think there is a huge misunderstanding on how air defense systems operate. It's not WWII, you don't have guys looking out with binoculars, modern air defense systems have incredible range.

The operators are inside looking at the scope, not scanning the horizon with binoculars!!!!!! I think the reason is pretty obvious but just in case it's not, it's because these air defense systems would not be effective if they waited until the target gets within visual range. And that implies it will get within visual range... If the target flies past but not over the AA unit, the target may never be visual


I'm not necessarily absolving the AA operator of guilt, he may very well be negligent. I'm just not naive enough to say, never spending a second of training on an AA unit, that I'm all high and mighty and couldn't make the same mistake. I'd wager a majority of the forum is capable of making the same mistake (assuming the operator was not truly a negligent dufus)

People here act like this guy watched 10 targets on his radar with a little airliner logo nicely take off from IKA and travel in a nice smooth path across the screen, PS752 does the same and uh oh it has flashing lights (because I totally have a window pointed right at it) let me randomly fire.

I highly doubt it was that stupidly moronic... but that's seems to be how basic people are pretending it is

(Assuming no operator negligence,) it's fog of war. Shit happens in war. So there's no blame here? NO, the blame is on the AUTHORITIES for not taking proper steps to protect aviation. That doesn't necessarily mean shutting down airspace, but honestly, on that particular night, that was probably the right call. I'd even say the authorities are on the hook no matter what, even if the AA operator was a complete idiot... In war, tragedies happen even with the best trained troops. Keep civilians away
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:36 pm

@TU204, thanks, very useful info.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:57 pm

ikramerica wrote:
discussion should be moved to military.


Why? The forum title is "Military Aviation and Space". The accidental shooting down of a civilian airliner doesn't fit in either of those categories.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
TheLunchbox
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:10 pm

IADCA wrote:
TheLunchbox wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
@kennneth, I think actually he seems to be saying it was impossible for it to be an accident.

He is saying there is no way to confuse a missile with a plane. And yes that it would definitely be found out to have been shot down because of shrapnel etc.

So that begs the question, how was all of the data manipulated to such an extent that the operators thought it was a missile? "from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

So this leads me back to the question of cyberhacking or a rogue faction of the military who deliberately shot down an airliner and now it's being covered up ...

He is also saying that operators would have been physically sitting on the tank, so as I suspected they would have been able to see with the naked eye or binos it was a plane.

****The operators sitting on this tractor see everything very well: a big goal, a small one - they could not be mistaken*****.


Well it was pitch black so i'm not so sure what you're looking at with binoculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Those cute little red and green nav lights and flashing strobes that airliners have and cruise missiles don't would be pretty nice clues. The weather was clear, so you'd see them if you looked, especially with binoculars.


The cute red and green ones are my favvv. who knows if they're even visible at the distance they're at. ah right you were there.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8344
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:13 pm

tu204 wrote:
After seeing the post earlier with the map and the terrain values I think I may have a theory.

Inexperienced, on edge Tor crew, possibly fresh from a shift change, unfamiliar with the area are on duty, they haven't seen the previous departures go overhead.

Aircraft comes into radar range from over the "mountain" headed in their direction and accelerating.

The Tor issues a false "incoming" alarm to the operator. (If it is like the Pantsir, this alarm is issued either when you detect radiation pointed at you OR the system calculates that one of the "blips" on the screen is coming at you. This "false alarm" does happen. Especially when a "fast" target appears nearby out of nowhere).

Above mentioned inexperienced and on edge operator shoots.

My two cents.


That is a very plausible explanation.

What kind of Identification, Friend or Foe(IFF) capabilities Tor system has?
All posts are just opinions.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15099
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
discussion should be moved to military.


Why? The forum title is "Military Aviation and Space". The accidental shooting down of a civilian airliner doesn't fit in either of those categories.

We have been discussing the functioning of a military AA missile battery for days now. Where is the discussion of anything related to civil aviation?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2177
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:28 pm

TheLunchbox wrote:
IADCA wrote:
TheLunchbox wrote:

Well it was pitch black so i'm not so sure what you're looking at with binoculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Those cute little red and green nav lights and flashing strobes that airliners have and cruise missiles don't would be pretty nice clues. The weather was clear, so you'd see them if you looked, especially with binoculars.


The cute red and green ones are my favvv. who knows if they're even visible at the distance they're at. ah right you were there.


I mean, as I typed that post I was looking out my window at a departure path approximately 5 miles away laterally and at which planes are at roughly 6000 feet above ground level, and the nav lights and strobes were both clearly visible with the naked eye, and that was with more light pollution than you see in the videos from the night in question. On any clear night (as it was for the PS752 incident), it's not hard to see planes at distance. The lights are designed to be seen, even the cute little ones.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:55 pm

Do we know if there were any names of diplomats, military officials, government officials or intelligence operators on the passenger manifest?

It's just a question.

If someone is wondering why ask this, read up on The Ndola United Nations DC-6 crash in 1961 and The Smolensk Air Disaster in 2010.
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:49 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
tu204 wrote:
After seeing the post earlier with the map and the terrain values I think I may have a theory.

Inexperienced, on edge Tor crew, possibly fresh from a shift change, unfamiliar with the area are on duty, they haven't seen the previous departures go overhead.

Aircraft comes into radar range from over the "mountain" headed in their direction and accelerating.

The Tor issues a false "incoming" alarm to the operator. (If it is like the Pantsir, this alarm is issued either when you detect radiation pointed at you OR the system calculates that one of the "blips" on the screen is coming at you. This "false alarm" does happen. Especially when a "fast" target appears nearby out of nowhere).

Above mentioned inexperienced and on edge operator shoots.

My two cents.


That is a very plausible explanation.

What kind of Identification, Friend or Foe(IFF) capabilities Tor system has?


It has a IFF antenna, I think that is the one located above the main radar, it is visible in that YouTube link I posted several posts above. Looks like a parabolic screen.
But this wouldn't help much since an IFF transponder isn't a mode A/C/S transponder you have on a commercial aircraft. At least Russian IFF transponders aren't.
Doesn't mean they can't have an additional antenna which would act like your standard "Secondary Radar" interrogator radar at your local civilian airport. But that has nothing to do with the actual IFF system you reffered to in your question.

Edit:
Just wrote a buddy in the RuAF to confirm - they have your standard Mode A/C/S transponder, plus a IFF transponder. They are two completely different and unrelated in any way pieces of equipment. You get your IFF codes from your command before departure and your Squawk from ATC, civilian or military.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
2175301
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:24 pm

tu204 wrote:

"Deleted for Readability: See above"

It has a IFF antenna, I think that is the one located above the main radar, it is visible in that YouTube link I posted several posts above. Looks like a parabolic screen.
But this wouldn't help much since an IFF transponder isn't a mode A/C/S transponder you have on a commercial aircraft. At least Russian IFF transponders aren't.
Doesn't mean they can't have an additional antenna which would act like your standard "Secondary Radar" interrogator radar at your local civilian airport. But that has nothing to do with the actual IFF system you reffered to in your question.

Edit:
Just wrote a buddy in the RuAF to confirm - they have your standard Mode A/C/S transponder, plus a IFF transponder. They are two completely different and unrelated in any way pieces of equipment. You get your IFF codes from your command before departure and your Squawk from ATC, civilian or military.


The Russian military will almost certainly have the latest generation of the TOR (SA-15). This system dates from the 1970's and the earliest versions would not have had commercial identification systems.

There is still a lot of older systems and equipment out there. Both Russia and the US prefer to sell off older equipment vs scrapping it. They also tend not to sell the latest and greatest to other countries - except very close allies.

We have no idea of what version of the TOR (SA-15) was involved here. Yes, the most modern and advanced system has civilian ID systems. It is unlikely that the system that Iran used for this shoot-down was in fact the most modern and advanced system. Much more likely it was a system purchased in the 1980's or 1990's and with limited (if any) upgrades to it since.

A proper investigation will identify what generation and the capabilities of the TOR (SA-15) system used.

Have a great day,
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:46 pm

2175301 wrote:
tu204 wrote:

"Deleted for Readability: See above"

It has a IFF antenna, I think that is the one located above the main radar, it is visible in that YouTube link I posted several posts above. Looks like a parabolic screen.
But this wouldn't help much since an IFF transponder isn't a mode A/C/S transponder you have on a commercial aircraft. At least Russian IFF transponders aren't.
Doesn't mean they can't have an additional antenna which would act like your standard "Secondary Radar" interrogator radar at your local civilian airport. But that has nothing to do with the actual IFF system you reffered to in your question.

Edit:
Just wrote a buddy in the RuAF to confirm - they have your standard Mode A/C/S transponder, plus a IFF transponder. They are two completely different and unrelated in any way pieces of equipment. You get your IFF codes from your command before departure and your Squawk from ATC, civilian or military.


The Russian military will almost certainly have the latest generation of the TOR (SA-15). This system dates from the 1970's and the earliest versions would not have had commercial identification systems.

There is still a lot of older systems and equipment out there. Both Russia and the US prefer to sell off older equipment vs scrapping it. They also tend not to sell the latest and greatest to other countries - except very close allies.

We have no idea of what version of the TOR (SA-15) was involved here. Yes, the most modern and advanced system has civilian ID systems. It is unlikely that the system that Iran used for this shoot-down was in fact the most modern and advanced system. Much more likely it was a system purchased in the 1980's or 1990's and with limited (if any) upgrades to it since.

A proper investigation will identify what generation and the capabilities of the TOR (SA-15) system used.

Have a great day,


Wikipedia says Iran has the Tor-M1, which was the first generation, produced since 1991.

But I agree with you and was hinting on the fact that it probably doesn't have an SSR (civilian Mode A/C/S interrogator).
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
2175301
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:07 pm

tu204 wrote:
2175301 wrote:
tu204 wrote:

"Deleted for Readability: See above"

It has a IFF antenna, I think that is the one located above the main radar, it is visible in that YouTube link I posted several posts above. Looks like a parabolic screen.
But this wouldn't help much since an IFF transponder isn't a mode A/C/S transponder you have on a commercial aircraft. At least Russian IFF transponders aren't.
Doesn't mean they can't have an additional antenna which would act like your standard "Secondary Radar" interrogator radar at your local civilian airport. But that has nothing to do with the actual IFF system you reffered to in your question.

Edit:
Just wrote a buddy in the RuAF to confirm - they have your standard Mode A/C/S transponder, plus a IFF transponder. They are two completely different and unrelated in any way pieces of equipment. You get your IFF codes from your command before departure and your Squawk from ATC, civilian or military.


The Russian military will almost certainly have the latest generation of the TOR (SA-15). This system dates from the 1970's and the earliest versions would not have had commercial identification systems.

There is still a lot of older systems and equipment out there. Both Russia and the US prefer to sell off older equipment vs scrapping it. They also tend not to sell the latest and greatest to other countries - except very close allies.

We have no idea of what version of the TOR (SA-15) was involved here. Yes, the most modern and advanced system has civilian ID systems. It is unlikely that the system that Iran used for this shoot-down was in fact the most modern and advanced system. Much more likely it was a system purchased in the 1980's or 1990's and with limited (if any) upgrades to it since.

A proper investigation will identify what generation and the capabilities of the TOR (SA-15) system used.

Have a great day,


Wikipedia says Iran has the Tor-M1, which was the first generation, produced since 1991.

But I agree with you and was hinting on the fact that it probably doesn't have an SSR (civilian Mode A/C/S interrogator).


I stand partially corrected, and thanks for the information. TOR-M1 was the 2nd generation (WIKI list 4 main land based generations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system ): 1st Generation was just "TOR" and went operational in 1986 according to WIKI. Design of TOR did start in 1975.

Have a great day,
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:12 pm

remcor wrote:
New York Times today released a video "visual investigation" up where they go through what they think happened. It's interesting:
https://youtu.be/tcFn6KsxOgo

Thanks, that was a great compilation of all the videos and info.

One statement that I would like more evidence of: the NYT video said that there was a 30 second gap between the last ADS-B signal and the missile strike.

How did they know the exact time the missile hit? There was only 1 video that showed the missile strike. Did they obtain the video metadata that showed the exact time? I haven't seen any sources that provided the missile strike time.

Because if the ADS-B signal really did cut out for 30s before missile strike, then I can see it being a plausible explanation for the human error.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:15 pm

SuseJ772 wrote:
I wonder if there was more control til the end than (at least I) initially thought.

I doubt the pilots were in control. They were probably already incapacitated by the shrapnel, which exploded below the cockpit. More likely the plane in a semi-stable flight, only partially affected by the shrapnel. Perhaps the starboard engine was damaged by shrapnel and had reduced thrust, causing the plane to turn right and descend.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:21 pm

ikramerica wrote:
scbriml wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
discussion should be moved to military.


Why? The forum title is "Military Aviation and Space". The accidental shooting down of a civilian airliner doesn't fit in either of those categories.

We have been discussing the functioning of a military AA missile battery for days now. Where is the discussion of anything related to civil aviation?


It's being discussed because it's directly involved in the shooting down of a civilian airliner (the topic of this thread). It's no different to the extensive discussions about BUK systems in the shootdown of MH17 in the Civil Aviation forum.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:32 pm

Incredible new CCTV footage shows 2 missiles launching, 2 missiles exploding, and the burning airplane:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeMoXqbqLBA

Timeline from the video:
0:01 first missile launches
0:20 first missile explodes (about 19s after launch)
0:32 second missile launches
0:44 second missile explodes (about 12s after launch, about 24s after first missile exploded).
1:11 plane on fire comes into view (very faint at first)

The timeline all makes sense now. The first video of the missile strike captured the second missile impact. That explains why there was a ~30s gap after ADS-B cut out and when the first video showed the missile explosion. The first missile had already taken out the ADS-B. The first video captured the second missile, which hit about 24s after the first missile.
 
flybucky
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:38 pm

flybucky wrote:
Because if the ADS-B signal really did cut out for 30s before missile strike, then I can see it being a plausible explanation for the human error.


The newest CCTV showing two missile launches and explosions explains the ~30s gap. First missile took out the ADS-B. Second missile exploded 24s after the first missile.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438597&p=21934791#p21934791

So the ADS-B was working before the first missile struck, eliminating ADS-B failure as a theory of why it was mistakenly shot down.

(Although I doubt the TOR system monitors ADS-B anyways. The crew probably would have had to call their commander to confirm that info, but that call didn't happen.)
 
cosmopolitan
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:01 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:39 pm

I am in receipt of a video shot inside the plane. Heart wrenching
It seemed like the com system was functional even when the wings were completely engulfed
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:04 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
You might ask what they are trying to accomplish shooting unarmed protesters in the streets?

A ruling regime shooting unarmed protesters to maintain power is not unheard of
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:23 pm

flybucky wrote:
Incredible new CCTV footage shows 2 missiles launching, 2 missiles exploding, and the burning airplane:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeMoXqbqLBA

Timeline from the video:
0:01 first missile launches
0:20 first missile explodes (about 19s after launch)
0:32 second missile launches
0:44 second missile explodes (about 12s after launch, about 24s after first missile exploded).
1:11 plane on fire comes into view (very faint at first)

The timeline all makes sense now. The first video of the missile strike captured the second missile impact. That explains why there was a ~30s gap after ADS-B cut out and when the first video showed the missile explosion. The first missile had already taken out the ADS-B. The first video captured the second missile, which hit about 24s after the first missile.


Well that completely answers my question about why someone was filming the night sky that I asked earlier.

I stand by my above mentioned theory then.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
TaromA380
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:35 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:49 pm

So, the official story got slightly bruised. There isn't anymore about a 10-seconds decision but a 10+30 seconds decision.
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:02 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
So, the official story got slightly bruised. There isn't anymore about a 10-seconds decision but a 10+30 seconds decision.


I think after the first impact it wouldn't matter anyhow. The fact there were no actions or contact with them kinda says that.

Why they decided to send in another missile?

Well to me this just points towards the fact that they sincerely did not know it was a civil aircraft and that they just royally f*cked up.

They see a threat (sequence as I posted somewhere above), shoot at it, it gets hit but the target doesn't fall in pieces but continues, mainly intact and towards them.
So obviously either they missed, the missile detonated too far away to create major damage, and it is still a threat, right?

What do you do? Take one more shot.

Don't know about you guys, but to me it makes much more sense now.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24313
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:11 pm

flybucky wrote:
Incredible new CCTV footage shows 2 missiles launching, 2 missiles exploding, and the burning airplane:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeMoXqbqLBA

Timeline from the video:
0:01 first missile launches
0:20 first missile explodes (about 19s after launch)
0:32 second missile launches
0:44 second missile explodes (about 12s after launch, about 24s after first missile exploded).
1:11 plane on fire comes into view (very faint at first)

The timeline all makes sense now. The first video of the missile strike captured the second missile impact. That explains why there was a ~30s gap after ADS-B cut out and when the first video showed the missile explosion. The first missile had already taken out the ADS-B. The first video captured the second missile, which hit about 24s after the first missile.

Presumably this means those not killed instantly by the first missile had 24 seconds where they were in a state of shock and confusion before the second missile hit, then those remaining alive after the second had an even longer time to contemplate the state of affairs till the plane impacted the ground, unless they died before then. Truly ghastly.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TaromA380
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:35 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:16 pm

tu204 wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
So, the official story got slightly bruised. There isn't anymore about a 10-seconds decision but a 10+30 seconds decision.


I think after the first impact it wouldn't matter anyhow. The fact there were no actions or contact with them kinda says that.

Maybe yes or maybe no. What do we know?

No visible action for 30 seconds ... visible in that darkness?!

No contact, perhaps because pilots were more or less incapacitated and trying to realize what just happened and busy to aviate first. We don't know. Perhaps they were already dead. We don't know.

The 10+30 is not about heroic stubbornness against an imaginary enemy, it is about a delay while more than one guy could have done their 1+1 and scream to immediately stop shooting. Still, it didn't happen. Almost a minute (or maybe more, with the prelude) of thinking and eliminating scenarios and the guy(s) still push the button the second time.
 
tu204
Posts: 2174
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:21 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
tu204 wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
So, the official story got slightly bruised. There isn't anymore about a 10-seconds decision but a 10+30 seconds decision.


I think after the first impact it wouldn't matter anyhow. The fact there were no actions or contact with them kinda says that.

Maybe yes or maybe no. What do we know?

No visible action for 30 seconds ... visible in that darkness?!

No contact, perhaps because pilots were more or less incapacitated and trying to realize what just happened and busy to aviate first. We don't know. Perhaps they were already dead. We don't know.

The 10+30 is not about heroic stubbornness against an imaginary enemy, it is about a delay while more than one guy could have done their 1+1 and scream to immediately stop shooting. Still, it didn't happen. Almost a minute (or maybe more, with the prelude) of thinking and eliminating scenarios and the guy(s) still push the button the second time.


I dunno. To me the picture is becoming much more clear and fitting the version of events I imagined/calculated.

Why would you be second guessing what you already did? Plus the whole "tunnel vision" effect. You acted correctly, you look for facts to back that up and throw out any facts that cast doubt on your conclusions. You saw a target, acted, your actions weren't good enough, so you wanna keep acting untill the "goal" is achieved.

It would be helpful if we could plot the first and second strike on the map we had before. That would shed some more light and possibly make things even clearer. If the aircraft after the first hit started changing course towards the position of the battery, it would paint a full picture as far as I see it.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
Presumably this means those not killed instantly by the first missile had 24 seconds where they were in a state of shock and confusion before the second missile hit, then those remaining alive after the second had an even longer time to contemplate the state of affairs till the plane impacted the ground, unless they died before then. Truly ghastly.


Too horrible to contemplate.

TaromA380 wrote:
The 10+30 is not about heroic stubbornness against an imaginary enemy, it is about a delay while more than one guy could have done their 1+1 and scream to immediately stop shooting. Still, it didn't happen. Almost a minute (or maybe more, with the prelude) of thinking and eliminating scenarios and the guy(s) still push the button the second time.


If you've already made the decision and fired your first missile, seeing the target continue (and probably make you assume you missed) only leaves you with one course of action. Fire again and make sure.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos