Interested
Posts: 871
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:07 pm

BBC News reporting that protesters have taken to the streets in Iran against their current regime

The gatherings were initially to show respect to those that died. But turned into the protesters demanding "death to the liars!"
 
mga707
Posts: 242
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:52 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 pm

Interested wrote:
BBC News reporting that protesters have taken to the streets in Iran against their current regime

The gatherings were initially to show respect to those that died. But turned into the protesters demanding "death to the liars!"


That is good to hear! First positive thing to come from this whole debacle.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:18 pm

I read that full statement by the IRGC commander that flybucky linked to. It's a straightforward admission that he figured it out right away based on the contemporaneous news of a plane crash and his folks' reports of downing a "cruise missile". He, in turn, reported his conclusions up the chain of command and then shut up. Fair enough.

He also does admit that there was nothing in the actual flight path of the aircraft that should have led to a conclusion that it was hostile. It's a Fog of War deal by one guy, acting alone with a limited time to act during the highest alert level, and that's believable. There's a reason the guy was supposed to get approval to fire, and he didn't. Fair enough as well.

I think he is reaching to say that the civilian aviation authority made its statements based on the erroneous understanding that an antiaircraft missile would have caused the complete destruction of the aircraft at the point of impact. Like in the movies. That's possible, I guess, but it doesn't say much about the knowledge/experience/understanding of Iran's civil aviation authorities. Ninety percent of the members here knew how some kinds of antiaircraft missiles work, but the Iran civil aviation authorities don't? More like wishful thinking on their part. It's a fair bet that some of their top people drew the same conclusion that the General did, but followed the party line.

What I found most interesting is the observation that the battery that fired was a group moved into town to augment the existing air defense of Tehran. In other words, rookies. At least folks unfamiliar with the flight patterns of that area.
Last edited by wjcandee on Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:27 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning: [followed by list]

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


There were a couple of Iran Air flights departing within an hour thereafter, albeit at a time where there would have been some light. Light probably would have reduced the chances of this happening, but who knows. It has to be a concern that they came close-ish to shooting down a domestic airliner. Hardly matters, though, given the nationality of the passengers on the flight that they did shoot down.

It actually IS interesting to me that subsequent fights were delayed or cancelled. Normally, an accident miles from an airport of a flight that has departed from that airport doesn't cause the other flights that day to be cancelled. SOMEBODY had to suspect a shoot-down if they cancelled the rest of the flights that morning.
 
FANMD11
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:48 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:30 pm

I just checked flightradar, and while most european and asian airlines seem to avoid iranian airspace, TK keeps its flights over Iran. Right now they have flights from MNL, BKK, SGN, CGK in iranian airspace and their route goes right over Tehran. And of course they still serve IKA. They look like being the ony major airline (with QR which may not have other choice) to keep flying over Iran.
 
a320fan
Posts: 815
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 5:04 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:18 am

FANMD11 wrote:
I just checked flightradar, and while most european and asian airlines seem to avoid iranian airspace, TK keeps its flights over Iran. Right now they have flights from MNL, BKK, SGN, CGK in iranian airspace and their route goes right over Tehran. And of course they still serve IKA. They look like being the ony major airline (with QR which may not have other choice) to keep flying over Iran.


Qatar, Oman Air, Fly Dubai, Air Arabia and Pakistan international are all major airlines I can see with overflights currently in Iranian airspace.
A319, A320, A321, A330-200, A350-900, A380, 737-700, 737-800, 777-200ER, 777-300, 777-300ER, 787-8, Q300, Q400
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4111
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:33 am

bikerthai wrote:
One question if someone knows the answer. At the time of the shoot down, is there typically traffic coming through the airport?

I mean one possibility is that the crew manning the battery thought that the last flight out that early hours is done and is not expecting another commercial flight until later.

bt
any military should have the full domestic atc picture at all times.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8632
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:45 am

wjcandee wrote:
It's a Fog of War deal by one guy, acting alone with a limited time to act during the highest alert level, and that's believable. There's a reason the guy was supposed to get approval to fire, and he didn't. Fair enough as well.

:redflag:

How do we know this?!

This is no conspiracy, just bureaucracy 101. Superiors blame underlings. All the time. Maliciously, but sometimes not, just human nature. I can name a million examples from us, the US, for example look at the 2 US Navy collisions in Asia and how the Skippers' careers were on the line but C7F (IIRC) eventually got sacked

Guy that pushed the button may be incredibly guilty. He may be a complete scapegoat pawn. Probably somewhere in between. I feel for the guy, but I also want those really responsible to be held accountable
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:58 am

DLMD90: I'm not saying that I know his explanation to be true, but rather that it's believable.

Could higher-ups have been involved or indeed actually-approved the action? Of course. Especially if he reported an incoming cruise missile or something that looked like an incoming cruise missile. That's what they were on alert for.

Do I believe that higher-ups would have approved the downing of a 737 filled with Iranians departing Tehran? No, I don't.

As to wanting higher-ups to be blamed, there are significant student and citizen rallies at the moment calling for the ouster of the Grand Ayatollah as well as the civilian government leaders -- over this screw-up. SO...
 
GeneralPublic
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:11 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:02 am

kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)


One of the initial reports from Iran mentioned that the crew of another passing aircraft witnessed PS752 being engulfed in fire (e.g. Al Jazeera's news piece from 9 Jan: Iran: Ukraine plane caught fire but crew never called for help). Surely this witness aircraft couldn't be any of these departing. It must have been some arriving plane? Is there such a list of arrivals?

I am just a member of the public with no proper understanding of the scene and the dynamics overall, but I wonder in general why a plane (or an unidentifiable flying object for Iran's air defense in this case) flying in the direction away from the main international airport (with the eight planes having uneventfully departed before, or were they all flying in a different direction?) was suddenly deemed to be the enemy's missile, shouldn't the ones flying towards the airport be deemed more threatening?
 
N212R
Posts: 244
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:32 am

kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


They were the NINTH departure in roughly a 3 1/2 hr span.

Can we assume the same, supposed trigger-happy, loose cannons would have been on shift during that entire duration?

Yet it was only then that their trained nerves got somehow spooked?

The bar is open...free Kool-Aid on the house.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8632
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:40 am

N212R wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


They were the NINTH departure in roughly a 3 1/2 hr span.

Can we assume the same, supposed trigger-happy, loose cannons would have been on shift during that entire duration?

Yet it was only then that their trained nerves got somehow spooked?

The bar is open...free Kool-Aid on the house.

Assuming that may or may not be true.

Assuming they saw an obvious airliner depart from IKA, followed by another obvious airliner from IKA following the same path, followed by another airliner from IKA following the same path, etc etc? I'm not so sure.

I'm no air defense operator, but I've seen plenty of cutting edge US military non-air defense radars. It's not like Hollywood, it's not like FR24. An American Aegis cruiser screwed it up before.

I'm not excusing the shootdown, not at all. I just am combating the notion that it's all super obvious and it's like what you see in a Tom Cruise movie. It's all very messy. Mistakes happen. That's why there are precautions, that's why civilians should not be flying through war zones (which Tehran was that night)
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:45 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
It's a Fog of War deal by one guy, acting alone with a limited time to act during the highest alert level, and that's believable. There's a reason the guy was supposed to get approval to fire, and he didn't. Fair enough as well.

:redflag:

How do we know this?!

This is no conspiracy, just bureaucracy 101. Superiors blame underlings. All the time. Maliciously, but sometimes not, just human nature. I can name a million examples from us, the US, for example look at the 2 US Navy collisions in Asia and how the Skippers' careers were on the line but C7F (IIRC) eventually got sacked

Guy that pushed the button may be incredibly guilty. He may be a complete scapegoat pawn. Probably somewhere in between. I feel for the guy, but I also want those really responsible to be held accountable


Here's my experience with bureaucracy. The guys at the bottom know a lot. Young talent led by seasoned experience. The guys in the middle ranks are jockeying for position, constantly doing stupid stuff, with a few good ones. There are some real villains in the middle. The guys at the top are fairly innocent, because they aren't able to figure out what is going on unless middle guys tell them. So I would surmise that some boys were operating under a very broken set of rules due to complete overall disorder and chaos in the organization, likely a smoldering turf war between warlords jockeying for power. An orderly operation would never allow what happened. It is an absurd & humiliating situation for any armed force.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4399
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:30 am

bob75013 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
I wonder if some or all of the passengers died just after the missile hit or when the plane hit the ground. Likely it happened so quickly that there was no time for any pax to leave a note or take a picture on their cellphones.



If reports of the missle exploding at the left front of the aircraft are correct, I suspect that most of the passengers on the right side and many on the left side of the aircraft
were aware of what was happening right til the moment of impact. It would have been horrific.


Likely, they never saw the missile—time of flight was seconds, after the flash of launch, motor burnout occurs and its dark. It was just an explosion and fire to those who weren’t instantly killed by the fragments.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18638
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:42 am

Once again take political discussion to non-aviation.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14379
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:46 am

Lootess wrote:
The fact of the matter is the bulldozing of the site without regard to an on-site investigation is a violation of the Chicago convention, along with shooting down a civilization aircraft with a weapon. This is an ironclad UN resolution that every member abides by.



Few points :

The site was not bulldozed, evidence was not buried, nor were tracked vehicles used.

Heavy machinery including front end loader, crane, and trucks were used to move the aircraft to a hanger.

Article 3 of the Chicago Convention says every state must refrain from resorting to the use of weapons against civil aircraft in flight. Unfortunately we have seen many such occurrences.

The Convention does not deal with accidents and incidents, that came in later via annex 13 later.

Annex 13 states

3.2 The State of Occurrence shall take all reasonable measures to protect the evidence and to maintain safe custody of the aircraft and its contents for such a period as may be necessary for the purposes of an investigation. Protection of evidence shall include the preservation, by photographic or other means of any evidence which might be removed, effaced, lost or destroyed. Safe custody shall include protection against further damage, access by unauthorized persons, pilfering and deterioration.

Note 1.— Control over the wreckage is dealt with in 5.6.

Note 2.— Protection of flight recorder evidence requires that the recovery and handling of the recorder and its recordings be assigned only to qualified personnel.

Request from State of Registry, State of the Operator, State of Design or State of Manufacture

3.3 If a request is received from the State of Registry, the State of the Operator, the State of Design or the State of Manufacture that the aircraft, its contents, and any other evidence remain undisturbed pending inspection by an accredited representative of the requesting State, the State of Occurrence shall take all necessary steps to comply with such request, so far as this is reasonably practicable and compatible with the proper conduct of the investigation; provided that the aircraft may be moved to the extent necessary to extricate persons, animals, mail and valuables, to prevent destruction by fire or other causes, or to eliminate any danger or obstruction to air navigation, to other transport or to the public, and provided that it does not result in undue delay in returning the aircraft to service where this is practicable.”

Moving the wreckage to a hanger where it can be secured is normal. All recent investigations I can think of have done similar.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
airhansa
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:52 am

wjcandee wrote:
I read that full statement by the IRGC commander that flybucky linked to. It's a straightforward admission that he figured it out right away based on the contemporaneous news of a plane crash and his folks' reports of downing a "cruise missile". He, in turn, reported his conclusions up the chain of command and then shut up. Fair enough.

He also does admit that there was nothing in the actual flight path of the aircraft that should have led to a conclusion that it was hostile. It's a Fog of War deal by one guy, acting alone with a limited time to act during the highest alert level, and that's believable. There's a reason the guy was supposed to get approval to fire, and he didn't. Fair enough as well.

I think he is reaching to say that the civilian aviation authority made its statements based on the erroneous understanding that an antiaircraft missile would have caused the complete destruction of the aircraft at the point of impact. Like in the movies. That's possible, I guess, but it doesn't say much about the knowledge/experience/understanding of Iran's civil aviation authorities. Ninety percent of the members here knew how some kinds of antiaircraft missiles work, but the Iran civil aviation authorities don't? More like wishful thinking on their part. It's a fair bet that some of their top people drew the same conclusion that the General did, but followed the party line.

What I found most interesting is the observation that the battery that fired was a group moved into town to augment the existing air defense of Tehran. In other words, rookies. At least folks unfamiliar with the flight patterns of that area.


Generally, politicians are skilled at being able to mediate between civil servants and the electorate. Often it's rare to find someone that is skilled in the trades that they are assigned to oversee. It's highly likely that the ministers and spokespeople were either stating politically motivated statements or even just copying what had been passed to them from lower ranking people.

And at least now we've got confirmation that there had been a huge lapse of safety at the military. It's the only major piece of the jigsaw that doesn't fit - what on earth made a missile base fire at a plane on a regular flight path quite near to an international airport? I suspected that the people usually manning that military base may have been moved to another location in order to attack the US military bases in Iraq, meaning that the officers manning the missile base during the plane missile attack would not have been used to the situation around them - your final paragraph sort of backs my conclusions up, in that the team at the missile base weren't usually there.

In fact nearly all the theories that I had come up with proved correct! I think the only theory left that hasn't been explained officially is the final explosion/flare, which I suspected to be the fuel tank.
 
Daimler
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:54 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
I wonder if some or all of the passengers died just after the missile hit or when the plane hit the ground. Likely it happened so quickly that there was no time for any pax to leave a note or take a picture on their cellphones.



If reports of the missle exploding at the left front of the aircraft are correct, I suspect that most of the passengers on the right side and many on the left side of the aircraft
were aware of what was happening right til the moment of impact. It would have been horrific.


Likely, they never saw the missile—time of flight was seconds, after the flash of launch, motor burnout occurs and its dark. It was just an explosion and fire to those who weren’t instantly killed by the fragments.


TOR has a very small missile (about 4 times smaller than BUK that shot down MH17) and its charge is relatively weak, it's main purpose is to shoot down other missiles or jet planes/helicopters. And it hit the plane under the cockpit, so we can be almost sure that very few fragments have actually made it inside with pilots being the most probable casualties. Which means almost all passengers were alive and then burning alive for 2-4min until the plane crashed. A horrible way to die...

Also, it is still not clear if only one missile hit the plane or there were 2 of them.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18638
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:05 am

Daimler wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
bob75013 wrote:


If reports of the missle exploding at the left front of the aircraft are correct, I suspect that most of the passengers on the right side and many on the left side of the aircraft
were aware of what was happening right til the moment of impact. It would have been horrific.


Likely, they never saw the missile—time of flight was seconds, after the flash of launch, motor burnout occurs and its dark. It was just an explosion and fire to those who weren’t instantly killed by the fragments.


TOR has a very small missile (about 4 times smaller than BUK that shot down MH17) and its charge is relatively weak, it's main purpose is to shoot down other missiles or jet planes/helicopters. And it hit the plane under the cockpit, so we can be almost sure that very few fragments have actually made it inside with pilots being the most probable casualties. Which means almost all passengers were alive and then burning alive for 2-4min until the plane crashed. A horrible way to die...

Also, it is still not clear if only one missile hit the plane or there were 2 of them.

Per Wikipedia, the missile has a 15kg warhead. It takes 1 kg to take down a plane. The warhead would explode at a standoff distance scattering a cone of scrapnel. As there were indications of penatration by the engines and cockpit, there would be a wide swath of destruction.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Lightsaber

Late edit, Stinger has a 3kg warhead:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger

Rapier 1.4 kg
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapier_(missile)#Blindfire_Radar
So 15 kg is fairly large.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
airhansa
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:27 am

My view of what happened that morning

060800: PS752 departs one hour late from IKA in order to offload luggage/cargo due to weight issues.

061420. A few minutes after takeoff, the plane banks to the right, taking a regularly flown flight path that happened in the vicinity of a missile silo.The flight was apparently granted permission to fly the regularly taken route.

061458. The missile silo, which was staffed with personnel that were not usually there, mistook the airliner for a hostile plane and shot it with a missile that exploded in the front of the plane. Around the time the missile hit the plane, the transponder was knocked out and 'something happened' to the CVR.

?: As the fuselage and wings were mostly held together, albeit somewhat ablaze and probably hit by shrapnel, it glided at a shallow angle to the ground, following a rightward curve due to the planes existing rightward bank and also due to the missile hit.

?: A flare or an explosion engulfs the plane just prior to hitting the ground, probably the fuel tank or a leak from the fuel tank catching on fire, after which the plane hits the ground.

There was probably around half a minute between the plane banking right and the missile hitting the plane.If you look a the map below, the distance between the missile hit and the last transponder location could easily be less than ten seconds, probably within the time period between transponder blips. I don't know how long the missile takes to travel.

flybucky wrote:
Image
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1173
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:33 am

zeke wrote:
Moving the wreckage to a hanger where it can be secured is normal.


Do you have evidence that this is actually what is happening as much as I appreciate the half page of copy and pasted text?
 
Daimler
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:35 am

lightsaber wrote:
Daimler wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Likely, they never saw the missile—time of flight was seconds, after the flash of launch, motor burnout occurs and its dark. It was just an explosion and fire to those who weren’t instantly killed by the fragments.


TOR has a very small missile (about 4 times smaller than BUK that shot down MH17) and its charge is relatively weak, it's main purpose is to shoot down other missiles or jet planes/helicopters. And it hit the plane under the cockpit, so we can be almost sure that very few fragments have actually made it inside with pilots being the most probable casualties. Which means almost all passengers were alive and then burning alive for 2-4min until the plane crashed. A horrible way to die...

Also, it is still not clear if only one missile hit the plane or there were 2 of them.

Per Wikipedia, the missile has a 15kg warhead. It takes 1 kg to take down a plane. The warhead would explode at a standoff distance scattering a cone of scrapnel. As there were indications of penatration by the engines and cockpit, there would be a wide swath of destruction.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Lightsaber

Late edit, Stinger has a 3kg warhead:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger


First of all - 1kg to take down a plane? It has to be a very precise 1kg explosion to take down a big plane like Boeing 737. Don't forget about the size and there are many other variables to consider. Hell, this plane could potentially survive even BUK missile hit, with some very very lucky explosion position. A very tiny chance even against a huge missile.
And it definitely had some minor chances to survive TOR missile hit. For example, if it would hit near engine with most fragments luckily going into engine or air, with few actually hitting the wing and the fuselage - the plane would have landed sucessfully with minor or no casualties at all on a remaining engine.


Secondly - we were talking about passengers fate not plane's, and with known missile charge size and explosion position - we can be sure that almost all of the passengers have survived the hit and where alive during the fall. Unless there was a second missile hit in a different location, this could change the assumptions significantly...
 
Reddevil556
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:09 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:40 am

Daimler wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Daimler wrote:

TOR has a very small missile (about 4 times smaller than BUK that shot down MH17) and its charge is relatively weak, it's main purpose is to shoot down other missiles or jet planes/helicopters. And it hit the plane under the cockpit, so we can be almost sure that very few fragments have actually made it inside with pilots being the most probable casualties. Which means almost all passengers were alive and then burning alive for 2-4min until the plane crashed. A horrible way to die...

Also, it is still not clear if only one missile hit the plane or there were 2 of them.

Per Wikipedia, the missile has a 15kg warhead. It takes 1 kg to take down a plane. The warhead would explode at a standoff distance scattering a cone of scrapnel. As there were indications of penatration by the engines and cockpit, there would be a wide swath of destruction.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Lightsaber

Late edit, Stinger has a 3kg warhead:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger


First of all - 1kg to take down a plane? It has to be a very precise 1kg explosion to take down a big plane like Boeing 737. Don't forget about the size and there are many other variables to consider. Hell, this plane could potentially survive even BUK missile hit, with some very very lucky explosion position. A very tiny chance even against a huge missile.
And it definitely had some minor chances to survive TOR missile hit. For example, if it would hit near engine with most fragments luckily going into engine or air, with few actually hitting the wing and the fuselage - the plane would have landed sucessfully with minor or no casualties at all on a remaining engine.


Secondly - we were talking about passengers fate not plane's, and with known missile charge size and explosion position - we can be sure that almost all of the passengers have survived the hit and where alive during the fall. Unless there was a second missile hit in a different location, this could change the assumptions significantly...


Sure, if it had countermeasures. Civil airliners don’t fair well against SAMs.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
User avatar
SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 1902
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:23 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
zeke wrote:
Moving the wreckage to a hanger where it can be secured is normal.

Do you have evidence that this is actually what is happening as much as I appreciate the half page of copy and pasted text?

Let's see now - there was a statement from the Chairman of Iran's AIB, if that is acceptable to you. (he might be lying....)

And Ukrainian Media cited an unnamed member of the Ukrainian investigation team, saying that the Iranian officials fully cooperate and don't appear to hide anything, granting full access to the investigation including the black boxes, and "everything is transparent".

But I don't read either Farsi or Ukrainian, so you will have to accept AvHerald.com instead.

https://avherald.com/
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18638
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:50 am

Daimler wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Daimler wrote:

TOR has a very small missile (about 4 times smaller than BUK that shot down MH17) and its charge is relatively weak, it's main purpose is to shoot down other missiles or jet planes/helicopters. And it hit the plane under the cockpit, so we can be almost sure that very few fragments have actually made it inside with pilots being the most probable casualties. Which means almost all passengers were alive and then burning alive for 2-4min until the plane crashed. A horrible way to die...

Also, it is still not clear if only one missile hit the plane or there were 2 of them.

Per Wikipedia, the missile has a 15kg warhead. It takes 1 kg to take down a plane. The warhead would explode at a standoff distance scattering a cone of scrapnel. As there were indications of penatration by the engines and cockpit, there would be a wide swath of destruction.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system

Lightsaber

Late edit, Stinger has a 3kg warhead:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger


First of all - 1kg to take down a plane? It has to be a very precise 1kg explosion to take down a big plane like Boeing 737. Don't forget about the size and there are many other variables to consider. Hell, this plane could potentially survive even BUK missile hit, with some very very lucky explosion position. A very tiny chance even against a huge missile.
And it definitely had some minor chances to survive TOR missile hit. For example, if it would hit near engine with most fragments luckily going into engine or air, with few actually hitting the wing and the fuselage - the plane would have landed sucessfully with minor or no casualties at all on a remaining engine.


Secondly - we were talking about passengers fate not plane's, and with known missile charge size and explosion position - we can be sure that almost all of the passengers have survived the hit and where alive during the fall. Unless there was a second missile hit in a different location, this could change the assumptions significantly...

The 2nd point is a 15kg warhead is overkill. How many passengers survive or not, I can agree some would.

First Point is Rapier's, an old technology have taken down similar sized aircraft with a 1.4kg warhead.
Recall, a hand grenade is a mere 21g of explosives:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_ ... d_grenades

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1173
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:20 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
zeke wrote:
Moving the wreckage to a hanger where it can be secured is normal.

Do you have evidence that this is actually what is happening as much as I appreciate the half page of copy and pasted text?

Let's see now - there was a statement from the Chairman of Iran's AIB, if that is acceptable to you. (he might be lying....)

And Ukrainian Media cited an unnamed member of the Ukrainian investigation team, saying that the Iranian officials fully cooperate and don't appear to hide anything, granting full access to the investigation including the black boxes, and "everything is transparent".

But I don't read either Farsi or Ukrainian, so you will have to accept AvHerald.com instead.

https://avherald.com/


So, no viable source to make a definitive statement. Thanks.
 
zhetenyi1973
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:08 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:43 am

kennethP3 wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
One question if someone knows the answer. At the time of the shoot down, is there typically traffic coming through the airport?

I mean one possibility is that the crew manning the battery thought that the last flight out that early hours is done and is not expecting another commercial flight until later.

bt

Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


Actually this list is quite a conformation that late departure has a role here. There was supposed to be no flight between 5:40 and 6:20. It is also possible that there was a change of missile operators at eg. 5:30 and the new ones did not know AUI752 had not departed.
 
tu204
Posts: 2022
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:23 am

I posted this in the Non-Av discussion about this crash, but perhaps it better belongs here:

My thoughts on target identification that we are wondering about:

I am not familiar with the Tor and especially not knowing what model they had, but I know a thing of two about the Pantsir and the way that works (even the first version) is when you get target aquisition the IR camera points and zooms on the operator's monitor (in B&W, so you get a pretty good picture) for additional identification purposes. You see a good silhoute of the target. Again I don't know how this works on the Tor, but is it possible that from the angle they were looking at the target it didn't look like an aeroplane and that gave them additional misconspetions in their rushed decision making process?
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14379
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:47 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
Do you have evidence that this is actually what is happening as much as I appreciate the half page of copy and pasted text?


The CAO.IR releases their preliminary accident report on the 9th, I provided a link to that document earlier in this thread. The report stated “ Evidence at the crash site was saved and protected, and the aircraft wreckage parts were collected and transferred to a safe location”.

The report has the following in it.....

CAO.IR wrote:
Actions taken to investigate the accident

- The investigation was instituted based on Annex 13 to the ICAO Convention. Some of the initial actions taken included gathering factual information, forming a crisis management team at the accident site, dispatching related entities' agents to the crash site for search and rescue operations, obtaining the passengers' personal information from the airline involved in the accident and from other authorities including Iranian Migration Police Office, designating the investigator in charge, and dispatching an investigation go-team to the accident site as well as Imam Khomeini Int'l Airport and Mehrabad Int'l Airport;

- The accident relevant news and information was publicly informed;

- In accordance with Aircraft Accident Investigation Regulation adopted by Iran's council of ministers, 11 investigation groups were formed based on ICAO Doc 9756. As it was necessary to determine the cause of initiating fire on the aircraft, a certain group was added to the mentioned groups in order to investigate the issues concerning any unlawful actions.

- Victims' corpses and remains were detected, collected, and under the supervision of judicial authorities were transferred to Tehran Forensic Medicine for identification.

- Flight recorders including the CVR and FDR (black boxes) were found and delivered to the investigator in charge.

- Evidence at the crash site was saved and protected, and the aircraft wreckage parts were collected and transferred to a safe location.


- An initial notification was sent to Ukraine as the State of registry and the operator, the NTSB as the State of design and manufacture, Sweden (SHK),

3 Canada (TSB), and Afghanistan CAO as the States whose citizens suffered fatal injuries in this accident. Ukraine requested to participate in the accident investigation process, and introduced a go-team to identify and transfer their nationals' corpses, and perform other responsibilities resting with the country registering and operating the aircraft in such conditions, which has already arrived in Iran.

In accordance with the Annex 13, the investigation team would like to invite all the States involved in the accident to participate in the investigation process.

Upon the completion of the investigation, all the most up-to-date findings of the accident will be publicly issued on Iran Civil Aviation Organization website.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1173
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:09 am

zeke wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
Do you have evidence that this is actually what is happening as much as I appreciate the half page of copy and pasted text?


The CAO.IR releases their preliminary accident report on the 9th, I provided a link to that document earlier in this thread. The report stated “ Evidence at the crash site was saved and protected, and the aircraft wreckage parts were collected and transferred to a safe location”.

The report has the following in it.....

CAO.IR wrote:
Actions taken to investigate the accident

- The investigation was instituted based on Annex 13 to the ICAO Convention. Some of the initial actions taken included gathering factual information, forming a crisis management team at the accident site, dispatching related entities' agents to the crash site for search and rescue operations, obtaining the passengers' personal information from the airline involved in the accident and from other authorities including Iranian Migration Police Office, designating the investigator in charge, and dispatching an investigation go-team to the accident site as well as Imam Khomeini Int'l Airport and Mehrabad Int'l Airport;

- The accident relevant news and information was publicly informed;

- In accordance with Aircraft Accident Investigation Regulation adopted by Iran's council of ministers, 11 investigation groups were formed based on ICAO Doc 9756. As it was necessary to determine the cause of initiating fire on the aircraft, a certain group was added to the mentioned groups in order to investigate the issues concerning any unlawful actions.

- Victims' corpses and remains were detected, collected, and under the supervision of judicial authorities were transferred to Tehran Forensic Medicine for identification.

- Flight recorders including the CVR and FDR (black boxes) were found and delivered to the investigator in charge.

- Evidence at the crash site was saved and protected, and the aircraft wreckage parts were collected and transferred to a safe location.


- An initial notification was sent to Ukraine as the State of registry and the operator, the NTSB as the State of design and manufacture, Sweden (SHK),

3 Canada (TSB), and Afghanistan CAO as the States whose citizens suffered fatal injuries in this accident. Ukraine requested to participate in the accident investigation process, and introduced a go-team to identify and transfer their nationals' corpses, and perform other responsibilities resting with the country registering and operating the aircraft in such conditions, which has already arrived in Iran.

In accordance with the Annex 13, the investigation team would like to invite all the States involved in the accident to participate in the investigation process.

Upon the completion of the investigation, all the most up-to-date findings of the accident will be publicly issued on Iran Civil Aviation Organization website.


It’s a good quote. Let’s see what Canada has to say when the investigation is further along.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4379
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:18 am

seahawk wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
In IR655, there were 10 attempts made to contact the aircraft before shooting it down. I wonder how many times Iran tried to contact this flight.


Would you try to contact a cruise missile?

Coz cruise missiles regularly fly at 400kt... :roll:
64 types. 44 countries. 24 airlines.
 
FANMD11
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:48 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:45 am

a320fan wrote:
FANMD11 wrote:
I just checked flightradar, and while most european and asian airlines seem to avoid iranian airspace, TK keeps its flights over Iran. Right now they have flights from MNL, BKK, SGN, CGK in iranian airspace and their route goes right over Tehran. And of course they still serve IKA. They look like being the ony major airline (with QR which may not have other choice) to keep flying over Iran.


Qatar, Oman Air, Fly Dubai, Air Arabia and Pakistan international are all major airlines I can see with overflights currently in Iranian airspace.

Right, and I had said it about Qatar. You can add Aeroflot, Uzbekistan and Azreerbaidjan to that list. Of course, it depends on what might be considered «major airline».
 
User avatar
AirlineCritic
Posts: 1703
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2009 1:07 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:53 am

kennethP3 wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
We can contrast these numbers of overall commercial aviation accident statistics. In the 2010s (+ Jan 2020) there were 4396 deaths, and 36096 since 1980s. For the last forty years, 4% of all commercial aviation deaths were related to military action. But in the last ten years, 11%!

There's a bit of survivorship bias in play here. If the number of casualties due to "true" accidents goes down, then the proportion of casualties due to other factors will go up. But the overall number is still going down.

It's kind of like saying rates of death by cancer have gone up. Yes, that's technically true... But it's also because all the other things that used to kill you before you could even get cancer aren't as big of a problem anymore.


Sure. But if our goal is to move towards 0 fatalities, then we need to look at the composition of the remaining accidents to make further improvements, and all I was saying was that shoot-downs are becoming a big factor there. You are right of course that this is mostly due to other accidents becoming less frequent.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18094
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:57 am

N212R wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


They were the NINTH departure in roughly a 3 1/2 hr span.

Can we assume the same, supposed trigger-happy, loose cannons would have been on shift during that entire duration?

Yet it was only then that their trained nerves got somehow spooked?

The bar is open...free Kool-Aid on the house.


Would you accept that there's a possibility of a shift change at, say, 6am? No kool-aid required.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
AndyW35
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:54 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:01 am

I hope some compassion is shown to the person or persons who made this mistake. They already must have a terrible burden to bear. Too many people have died already to add more to the list for punishment.
 
Alfons
Posts: 284
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:55 am

the issues I have with all this story, is how can a sam battery be located next to a main airport with the sky lit with civil and friendly planes knowingly 100% of the time, and the operators not underly to a more strict ruleset of counter control.

Some here talk about schedules and the plane being late, and therefore the button has been pushed. I mean, the default property of an airport is next to many things, having planes often fly at other times than scheduled. So you push the button to shoot at a dot on the radar, just because the dot doesn't fit the official starting times of 24 hours ago?

Further: sam batteries next to airports have direct lines to the airport ATC and can always counter-ask a dot in the sky. And this supposed to be the rule. And I guess the sam operator knew he had to do that, and probably also did.

Other things always coming up in this thread, is that the sam operator didn't 'recognize' the dot. Ok, so you shoot? Really? That's the rule? Next to a main airport with a dot flying away from the airport? Och please.. . So this airport should be closed, or the sam battery be put very, very far away from it.

And regarding people's qualification to use a sam battery. I can't believe that the person at the button of an SA-15 Infrastructure (you saw the pics of this thing) is not an extremely professional person who worked hard to climb the ladder to arrive where he is today, who knows exactly what he is doing, how to 100% identify friend and foe, how to process all the checklist before deciding the next step etc. .

What I'm certain is that we don't know the most interesting yet.

The one more thing I would like to add to this thread, is when thinking about events in other countries, never forget to consider also that systems are different there compared to your own place. Take Egypt as an example, and how strong and own minded the military there is compared to the administrative government. They are not always in one line.
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:10 am

@Alfons, I agree. Do we have any radar experts on this forum please? If so, can you please guess at what equipment the Iranians might have had, and inform us here?

I really don't want this to turn into a political discussion but I have niggles, and I want to know the technical details. I cannot accept that the missile operator wouldn't have just looked up at the sky and been able to identify with the naked eye (as we could with the phone videos) the plane. Surely they would have had binos too.

Do we know where the missile was launched from yet, and above or below ground?

If they were in an underground bunker somewhere, with the plane squawking and bleeping every 6 seconds, what would they have seen on their radar equipment? Is cyberhacking possible to make the PS752 look like something else? I just want technical details please.

I know the most likely explanation is there was a shift change at 6am (PS752 was the first plane to fly after 6) with a rookie crew (the more advanced crew being sent elsewhere because of hostilities). However, my brain is struggling to get around the fact that anyone could be THAT stupid as to press the trigger right next to a civilian airport.

Technical details please, knowledgeable ones!
 
Bongodog49
Posts: 156
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:35 am

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:56 am

Zkpilot wrote:
seahawk wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
In IR655, there were 10 attempts made to contact the aircraft before shooting it down. I wonder how many times Iran tried to contact this flight.


Would you try to contact a cruise missile?

Coz cruise missiles regularly fly at 400kt... :roll:


Yes, that's not far off the speed of a tomahawk

As to the overall scenario, there's lots of theories in all directions, I'm thinking its just a plain muck up. Missile operator towards the end of a long night shift, knows that there's a chance of a retaliatory US strike, been awake for hours, sees a target, seeks guidance from above, nothing forthcoming so pulls the trigger. Where most of us live, all the operator has at risk is their career and personal liberty, in Iran it might be a matter of their life or death.

The entire Iranian system is not condusive to clear lines of command, on the one hand you have an elected president and regular armed forces, on the other you have a supreme leader and the revolutionary guard. Unfortunately the hand with the religous dogma outranks the democratic one
 
jagraham
Posts: 973
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:04 pm

cpd wrote:
par13del wrote:
cpd wrote:
I guess they were on such a state of tension/alert and rushed to shoot down what they suspected was an intruder.

As the missile battery was this close to a major airport, would we be wrong in assuming they should also have had that in the front of their minds versus a battery that was out in the desert protecting a military airbase?


What is going through their minds I don’t know. None of us will as we weren’t there, we can only guess.

They should have exercised more caution, but they didn’t and we are at this point now with little more we can do about it and I guess little chance anything will change.

Can you see the hawks from both sides sitting down together and working to resolve their differences in the aftermath of this incident? No, nor can I, even though I wish they would for the better of everyone. I have to fly through that region later this year... I’m sure my flights will be diverted away from the conflict area but it is still worrying.



If the Iranians are serious about this, we will find out what was going through the missile battery's crew's minds in a few weeks . . . Regarding Iran Air 300, the US eventually released tapes of the CIC goings on
 
airhansa
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:27 pm

Bongodog49 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Would you try to contact a cruise missile?

Coz cruise missiles regularly fly at 400kt... :roll:


Yes, that's not far off the speed of a tomahawk

As to the overall scenario, there's lots of theories in all directions, I'm thinking its just a plain muck up. Missile operator towards the end of a long night shift, knows that there's a chance of a retaliatory US strike, been awake for hours, sees a target, seeks guidance from above, nothing forthcoming so pulls the trigger. Where most of us live, all the operator has at risk is their career and personal liberty, in Iran it might be a matter of their life or death.

The entire Iranian system is not condusive to clear lines of command, on the one hand you have an elected president and regular armed forces, on the other you have a supreme leader and the revolutionary guard. Unfortunately the hand with the religous dogma outranks the democratic one


Another theory I have is that the missile operators usually assigned to the area, which being the most important airport in the most important city, would have some of their best missile operators, were moved to another location so that they could attack the US military bases in Iraq (which I believe ended only three hours beforehand), so lesser missile operators were stationed in Tehran (or at least around the airport).

When the plane took off, the automated aspect of the missile system may have flagged the plane as a threat (which happens with many other systems as well when they are put on a high sensitivity mode) and the lesser officers acted upon it (and for example the calls to superiors may usually have taken a longer amount of time, but these lesser officers may have not had the history to understand the situation).

Alternatively, the issue might be with the ten second call... why didn't they pick up or provide a response?
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 22237
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
It was unintentional! It was mistake! It's ok don't worry.

Makes me sick.

You know what makes me sick? William C Rogers of the US Navy receiving a medal for "exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ... from April 1987 to May 1989" after killing 290 Iranian civilians because somehow the most advanced ship in the US Navy can't tell the difference between an F-14 and an A300.


:checkmark:

People in glass houses and all that. :sarcastic:

MartijnNL wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
You can’t make mistakes like that one a day like today.

It seems you can.


Sadly, yes. You could in 1988 on board one of the World's most advanced warships and it seems we still can.

I'm not sure what the point of all this whataboutism is.

Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?

Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?

RadicalX wrote:
Based on the press conference being held by Iranian military it seems like the avaiation authorities were kept in the dark and didn't know about the shot down.

And the cover up would have held if it wasn't for that guy out walking his dog?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
bristolflyer1
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:51 pm

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaq_(radar) Apparently Iran uses phase array radar.

https://www.airspacemag.com/how-things- ... -10766910/

"We can differentiate between very tightly spaced objects, small and large objects, and the like,” says Army Colonel John Fellows, MDA’s project manager for X-band radars. “We can tell [which] is the threatening object.”

So did the Iranians have the technology to differentiate between a plane and a missile? Can anyone hazard an informed guess please?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18094
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?


Of course not. I'm really not sure why you need to ask, but I'll try and clarify.

Some posters expressed outrage that Iran could accidentally shoot down an airliner either ignoring or conveniently forgetting the not so distant past. Some even going as far as suggesting it was done deliberately and calling Iran hypocritical.

Revelation wrote:
Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?


Exactly. All along I've been arguing that I didn't believe that Iran, especially given their history with IR655, would knowingly shoot down an airliner, least of all one with its own citizens on. It is unforgivable (I was going to say 'sad' but it really didn't sound strong enough) that this has happened again.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1221
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:14 pm

scbriml wrote:
N212R wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


They were the NINTH departure in roughly a 3 1/2 hr span.

Can we assume the same, supposed trigger-happy, loose cannons would have been on shift during that entire duration?

Yet it was only then that their trained nerves got somehow spooked?

The bar is open...free Kool-Aid on the house.


Would you accept that there's a possibility of a shift change at, say, 6am? No kool-aid required.


A shift change would make sense. Some outdated flight departure data was passed along to the next shift, and the new shift sees something on radar that according to the old schedule shouldn't be there.
 
flybucky
Posts: 284
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:41 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Do we know where the missile was launched from yet, and above or below ground?

It was from an above ground, a Tor/SA-15. It's a mobile surface-to-air missile vehicle (looks like a tank) for taking out cruise missiles and smaller aircraft like drones and fighters.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_ ... es_uk.html

bristolflyer1 wrote:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaq_(radar) Apparently Iran uses phase array radar.
https://www.airspacemag.com/how-things- ... -10766910/
"We can differentiate between very tightly spaced objects, small and large objects, and the like,” says Army Colonel John Fellows, MDA’s project manager for X-band radars. “We can tell [which] is the threatening object.”
So did the Iranians have the technology to differentiate between a plane and a missile? Can anyone hazard an informed guess please?

In this situation, it didn't matter what capabilities Iran's radar has. The only relevance is what the Tor/SA-15 unit's radar capabilities are. The unit has its own mobile radar, and AFAIK not linked to other radar systems. Based on the IRGC Commander's press conference (which I found to be very accurate, honest, and not blaming others or making excuses), this is basically what happened:

SAM crew detects a threat, which they believe to a cruise missile. He was supposed to contact his higher ups to get confirmation/approval, but he was not able to due to a comm system issue. He only had a 10 second window to make a go/no-go decision (otherwise, the cruise missile could hit the target). He decides to shoot.

Now, if he was able to contact his higher ups, then they probably could have confirmed from other radar systems that this was a civilian airliner, not a cruise missile, and told him not to shoot.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 22237
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?


Of course not. I'm really not sure why you need to ask, but I'll try and clarify.

Some posters expressed outrage that Iran could accidentally shoot down an airliner either ignoring or conveniently forgetting the not so distant past. Some even going as far as suggesting it was done deliberately and calling Iran hypocritical.

Revelation wrote:
Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?


Exactly. All along I've been arguing that I didn't believe that Iran, especially given their history with IR655, would knowingly shoot down an airliner, least of all one with its own citizens on. It is unforgivable (I was going to say 'sad' but it really didn't sound strong enough) that this has happened again.

Thanks for the clarification. I missed the context that others think this was intentional. Even as I clarified the Canadian PM's remarks where he suggested but did not confirm an accidental shootdown before the IR admission, I pointed out that it was highly likely an accident. It makes no sense for the IR government to shoot down an airliner that was bound to be heavily loaded with their own citizens, like ANY airliner leaving IKA was bound to be, especially given recent street protests in Iran. It is almost certainly an accident. Ideally IR would be able to release some evidence of this, for whatever you think of the Vincennes incident, at least USN released video from the bridge showing the crew unfortunately convinced itself that they were shooting at an hostile F-14 not an airliner.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
flybucky
Posts: 284
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:53 pm

Alfons wrote:
the issues I have with all this story, is how can a sam battery be located next to a main airport with the sky lit with civil and friendly planes knowingly 100% of the time, and the operators not underly to a more strict ruleset of counter control.

Further: sam batteries next to airports have direct lines to the airport ATC and can always counter-ask a dot in the sky. And this supposed to be the rule. And I guess the sam operator knew he had to do that, and probably also did.

I don't think the Tor/SA-15 crew had direct lines to the airport ATC. It is a mobile vehicle that was added to prepare for retaliation for the Iraq missile attack. [1]

They were supposed to get confirmation from his commanders before shooting, but the comm system wasn't working for some reason. He only had a 10 second window to make a decision (presumably before the "cruise missile" would hit its target), and made the tragic mistake to shoot. [2]

https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

[1] "the level of preparedness was at wartime conditions; the highest alert level communicated by the integrated air defence to all systems. Under such circumstances, a number of air defence systems was added to Tehran’s air defence ring."

[2] "Well at such a situation, he was obliged to contact, get approval. This is where this operator makes the mistake; but at that moment, his communication system was apparently disrupted – whether because of jamming systems or the high traffic. For that reason, he fails to contact [his commanders]. He had 10 seconds to decide; he could hit or not hit [the target]. Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision; he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit at this place."
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:55 pm

zhetenyi1973 wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
One question if someone knows the answer. At the time of the shoot down, is there typically traffic coming through the airport?

I mean one possibility is that the crew manning the battery thought that the last flight out that early hours is done and is not expecting another commercial flight until later.

bt

Departures out of IKA that morning:

Lufthansa DLH601 - 02:43a
Turkish Airlines THY875 - 03:35a
Austrian AUA872 - 04:23a
Aeroflot AFL513 - 04:31a
Qatar Airways QTR491 - 05:01a
Turkish Airlines THY873 - 05:07a
AtlasGlobal KKK1185 - 05:17a
Qatar Airways QTR8408 - 05:40a
Ukraine International AUI752 - 06:12a (scheduled 05:15a)
IranAir IRA721 - 07:49a (scheduled 06:20a)
IranAir IRA717 - 07:53a (scheduled 07:30a)
Mahan Air IRM61 - 08:19a (scheduled 08:00a)

There were quite a few flights scheduled to depart at around that time. They ended up being delayed or canceled.


Actually this list is quite a conformation that late departure has a role here. There was supposed to be no flight between 5:40 and 6:20. It is also possible that there was a change of missile operators at eg. 5:30 and the new ones did not know AUI752 had not departed.

There were a few flights scheduled to depart between 5:45 and 6:20, they ended up delayed or canceled.

IranAir IRA719 - 05:45a - delayed to 12:41p
ATA TBZ6650 - 06:00a - canceled (?) (other sites show scheduled 05:30a departure)
IranAir IRA721 - 06:20a - delayed to 07:49a
Turkish Airlines THY899 - 06:20a - canceled

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... e=8&hour=6

It'd be odd to not expect flights to be delayed, in any case
Last edited by kennethP3 on Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flybucky
Posts: 284
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:44 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:00 pm

airhansa wrote:
061458. The missile silo, which was staffed with personnel that were not usually there,

I think your account is pretty much right on. Just one clarification, it was not a missile silo (which means a permanent underground bunker). It was a Tor/SA-15 mobile SAM vehicle.

airhansa wrote:
Alternatively, the issue might be with the ten second call... why didn't they pick up or provide a response?

It was not so much a a "10 second call" or "10 second call attempt". It was that he attempted to call his commander, but the comm system failed. He only had a 10 second window to decide, and made the wrong decision.

https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

Well at such a situation, he was obliged to contact, get approval. This is where this operator makes the mistake; but at that moment, his communication system was apparently disrupted – whether because of jamming systems or the high traffic. For that reason, he fails to contact [his commanders]. He had 10 seconds to decide; he could hit or not hit [the target]. Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision; he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit at this place.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14379
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:00 pm

BBC has an interview with an Ukrainian official who states their investigators have had access to the crash site and collected evidence to show a missile struck the aircraft from under the cockpit.

The interview includes images of holes found in various aircraft parts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-510 ... it-ukraine
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos