ERAU1
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:09 pm

I love how so many people on this site are defending Iran. There's no excuses for jeopardizing the lives of innocent people.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:16 pm

The SAM operator requested for the airspace to be cleared of civilian flights (which did not happen). There are reports that Iran kept civilian flights to reduce the likelihood of US retaliation.

we have arranged an interview with this operator, which will be released soon as part of the plan to publicize the issue. He says in this interview that “we requested for several times that the country’s airspace be cleared of [civilian] flights.’ At the Alert Level 3, this is normal; such requests are made; well our dear brothers didn’t follow up the issue for certain considerations. So the planes fly despite the wartime situation.
https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

IRGC's assumption was that keeping the air space open to commercial flights would reduce the likelihood of the US responding to Iran's missile attack.
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/ ... 1046461440
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:19 pm

Thanks KenethP3 for the flight schedule. With this information, I speculate the following scenario, without pre-conceived stereotype.

1) The missile battery crew are not a bunch of trigger happy yahoo's. You wouldn't put any bubba on expensive piece of hardware. They go to front line infantry. I would not be surprised if some of the soldiers manning the battery may have college degrees. If I was one of them, and I have been stationed there for months, I would have memorized if not have a list of scheduled departures on hand.

2) The number of flight that took off prior to the shoot down, but after the rocket strike on US base also tells me that these were not trigger happy missilemen. It's a combination of heighten alert and a plane that was at the wrong place at the wrong time that trigger the missiles to be launched.


3) That bring us to why there was no communication to the battery about the late departure? We already receive word from Iran that the two sides Civil/Military were not talking to each other. So it would be no surprised to me if the late departure of the flight got caught in the red tape of the early morning hours and that information were never forwarded to the military side. Any folks out there familiar with the scheduling tables of that airport? How soon would a scheduled delay show up on the flight table and is disseminated?

To me, the above scenario is most believable without demonizing anybody. I leave the ethicality of allowing flights for others to debate. Mistakes happens as both humans and technology are not perfect.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:31 pm

zeke wrote:
BBC has an interview with an Ukrainian official who states their investigators have had access to the crash site and collected evidence to show a missile struck the aircraft from under the cockpit.

The interview includes images of holes found in various aircraft parts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-510 ... it-ukraine

Pics:

Image

Image

Image

Image
Last edited by kennethP3 on Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
N212R
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:31 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
There were a few flights scheduled to depart between 5:45 and 6:20, they ended up delayed or canceled.

IranAir IRA719 - 05:45a - delayed to 12:41p
ATA TBZ6650 - 06:00a - canceled (?) (other sites show scheduled 05:30a departure)
IranAir IRA721 - 06:20a - delayed to 07:49a
Turkish Airlines THY899 - 06:20a - canceled

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... e=8&hour=6

It'd be odd to not expect flights to be delayed, in any case


Four flights scheduled to depart within the same general time as our ill-fated one are, for unknown reasons, moved completely out of the frame. Almost as if "they" wanted the sky clear of all aircraft EXCEPT the Ukranian 737. Must have just been a coincidence...
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:32 pm

Image

Apparent tracks from heavy machinery used to move the plane:

Image
 
ikramerica
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:34 pm

It is not accidental. It is a mistake. They are not synonymous. Thread title should replace with “mistakenly” as the intent was to shoot down an object, but they mistook an aircraft for a missile/drone.

Accident: shooting randomly into sky and hitting a plane, or unintentionally pressing fire when you are not intending to.
Mistake: shooting at something purposely which turns out not to be what you thought it was.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:37 pm

N212R wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
There were a few flights scheduled to depart between 5:45 and 6:20, they ended up delayed or canceled.

IranAir IRA719 - 05:45a - delayed to 12:41p
ATA TBZ6650 - 06:00a - canceled (?) (other sites show scheduled 05:30a departure)
IranAir IRA721 - 06:20a - delayed to 07:49a
Turkish Airlines THY899 - 06:20a - canceled

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... e=8&hour=6

It'd be odd to not expect flights to be delayed, in any case


Four flights scheduled to depart within the same general time as our ill-fated one are, for unknown reasons, moved completely out of the frame. Almost as if "they" wanted the sky clear of all aircraft EXCEPT the Ukranian 737. Must have just been a coincidence...

Actually, now I'm not sure if that info on IRA719 is accurate... Flightaware has logs of its departures and it's always been after 12:30p

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/IRA719

I imagine as soon as the shootdown happened (06:15a) ATC was probably informed to stop any planes from taking off. That leaves TBZ6650 - which Flightaware also shows hasn't been flown at all in the past two weeks:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/TBZ6650
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:49 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Thanks KenethP3 for the flight schedule. With this information, I speculate the following scenario, without pre-conceived stereotype.

1) The missile battery crew are not a bunch of trigger happy yahoo's. You wouldn't put any bubba on expensive piece of hardware. They go to front line infantry. I would not be surprised if some of the soldiers manning the battery may have college degrees. If I was one of them, and I have been stationed there for months, I would have memorized if not have a list of scheduled departures on hand.

2) The number of flight that took off prior to the shoot down, but after the rocket strike on US base also tells me that these were not trigger happy missilemen. It's a combination of heighten alert and a plane that was at the wrong place at the wrong time that trigger the missiles to be launched.


3) That bring us to why there was no communication to the battery about the late departure? We already receive word from Iran that the two sides Civil/Military were not talking to each other. So it would be no surprised to me if the late departure of the flight got caught in the red tape of the early morning hours and that information were never forwarded to the military side. Any folks out there familiar with the scheduling tables of that airport? How soon would a scheduled delay show up on the flight table and is disseminated?

To me, the above scenario is most believable without demonizing anybody. I leave the ethicality of allowing flights for others to debate. Mistakes happens as both humans and technology are not perfect.

bt

It was the Revolutionary Guard who shot it down. They are Iran's ideological army, created by the Ayatollah after the revolution... Think of the SS compared to the Wehrmacht in WW2 Germany. They were designated as a terrorist organization by the US, so I imagine they would be the first targets in a possible US strike, putting them further on edge
Last edited by kennethP3 on Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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OA412
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:55 pm

N212R wrote:
kennethP3 wrote:
There were a few flights scheduled to depart between 5:45 and 6:20, they ended up delayed or canceled.

IranAir IRA719 - 05:45a - delayed to 12:41p
ATA TBZ6650 - 06:00a - canceled (?) (other sites show scheduled 05:30a departure)
IranAir IRA721 - 06:20a - delayed to 07:49a
Turkish Airlines THY899 - 06:20a - canceled

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... e=8&hour=6

It'd be odd to not expect flights to be delayed, in any case


Four flights scheduled to depart within the same general time as our ill-fated one are, for unknown reasons, moved completely out of the frame. Almost as if "they" wanted the sky clear of all aircraft EXCEPT the Ukranian 737. Must have just been a coincidence...

Oh come on! Conspiracy theories add nothing of value to the discussion.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
cosmopolitan
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:59 pm

Can we take a moment and discuss cybersecurity, more precisely cyberwarfare, on this topic?

Anyone with specific knowledge on this topic?

In the past few years we have had 3 newish BOEING planes perished in mysterious circumstances. Involving shoot down and disappearances.

How easy would it be for a rouge actor with inside knowledge of Boeing aircraft to "hack" and potentially manipulated critical aircraft systems such as transponders and even flight controls without pilots awareness?

MH370 comes to mind specifically.. and more specifically the fact that all these incidents involved newer Boeing aircraft, and all cases involve sensitive geopolitics.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:00 pm

cosmopolitan wrote:
Can we take a moment and discuss cybersecurity, more precisely cyberwarfare, on this topic?

Anyone with specific knowledge on this topic?

In the past few years we have had 3 newish BOEING planes perished in mysterious circumstances. Involving shoot down and disappearances.

How easy would it be for a rouge actor with inside knowledge of Boeing aircraft to "hack" and potentially manipulated critical aircraft systems such as transponders and even flight controls without pilots awareness?

MH370 comes to mind specifically.. and more specifically the fact that all these incidents involved newer Boeing aircraft, and all cases involve sensitive geopolitics.


Feel free to open a separate thread on this topic, but please do not discuss it in this thread, because this thread is about PS752. Thanks.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:11 pm

bikerthai wrote:
If I was one of them, and I have been stationed there for months, I would have memorized if not have a list of scheduled departures on hand.

It was a newly deployed mobile SAM unit. Who knows if the crew was originally from that site or deployed from elsewhere.

the level of preparedness was at wartime conditions; the highest alert level communicated by the integrated air defence to all systems. Under such circumstances, a number of air defence systems was added to Tehran’s air defence ring. The first system – which was behind the incident – was deployed in Bidganeh in western Tehran.
https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane
 
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braynfeeble
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:12 pm

Tragic... many local people (YEG) died in that accident. Rest in Peace.
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32andBelow
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:34 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Thanks KenethP3 for the flight schedule. With this information, I speculate the following scenario, without pre-conceived stereotype.

1) The missile battery crew are not a bunch of trigger happy yahoo's. You wouldn't put any bubba on expensive piece of hardware. They go to front line infantry. I would not be surprised if some of the soldiers manning the battery may have college degrees. If I was one of them, and I have been stationed there for months, I would have memorized if not have a list of scheduled departures on hand.

2) The number of flight that took off prior to the shoot down, but after the rocket strike on US base also tells me that these were not trigger happy missilemen. It's a combination of heighten alert and a plane that was at the wrong place at the wrong time that trigger the missiles to be launched.


3) That bring us to why there was no communication to the battery about the late departure? We already receive word from Iran that the two sides Civil/Military were not talking to each other. So it would be no surprised to me if the late departure of the flight got caught in the red tape of the early morning hours and that information were never forwarded to the military side. Any folks out there familiar with the scheduling tables of that airport? How soon would a scheduled delay show up on the flight table and is disseminated?

To me, the above scenario is most believable without demonizing anybody. I leave the ethicality of allowing flights for others to debate. Mistakes happens as both humans and technology are not perfect.

bt

Memorize all the flights off an airport? That’s not how an airport works. There are always delays and cancellations. Add in one off business and medivac and freight flights and there’s no way you’d have everything memorized.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:57 pm

Does anyone know if this was a year round manned missile station? If this was a previously decommissioned site; hastily reactivated to protect the capital after recent events, it could have been manned by operators who may not necessarily have experience being next to a major airport. If the operators were reassigned from distant desert sites, they may not have much experience with commercial traffic blips at all.
 
GeneralPublic
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:28 pm

He says in this interview that “we requested for several times that the country’s airspace be cleared of [civilian] flights.’ At the Alert Level 3, this is normal; such requests are made; well our dear brothers didn’t follow up the issue for certain considerations. So the planes fly despite the wartime situation.https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-details-of-accidental-downing-of-ukrainian-plane


Sorry to say this but to me as an ordinary passenger this inaction of Iran's civil aviation body seems as either tantamount to making a human shield of unsuspecting civil planes or it has very little communication&coordination with Iran's air defense/doesn't recognize it/wasn't aware of the situation in the country if it decided to ignore such requests. It's very relieving and commendable that apparently every single state actor directly and indirectly involved in this tragedy works to mend and de-escalate the situation, but I feel devastated for the passengers and the crew. Honestly the 'martyrdom' notion which seems to be usual in this address is frightening. I don't know but hope that the Iranian society is willing and could gradually push for the better passengers' safety standarts and any possible international input in this respect would be constructive.
 
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OA412
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:46 pm

Please stick to the topic. If a moderator asks that you create a new thread to discuss a side topic, then do so. Don’t keep posting here.
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speedbird52
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
You know what makes me sick? William C Rogers of the US Navy receiving a medal for "exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ... from April 1987 to May 1989" after killing 290 Iranian civilians because somehow the most advanced ship in the US Navy can't tell the difference between an F-14 and an A300.


:checkmark:

People in glass houses and all that. :sarcastic:

MartijnNL wrote:
It seems you can.


Sadly, yes. You could in 1988 on board one of the World's most advanced warships and it seems we still can.

I'm not sure what the point of all this whataboutism is.

Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?

Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?

RadicalX wrote:
Based on the press conference being held by Iranian military it seems like the avaiation authorities were kept in the dark and didn't know about the shot down.

And the cover up would have held if it wasn't for that guy out walking his dog?

I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did. There was no excuse for what we did in 1988, but I do not disagree that there was no excuse for Iran in 2019 either. I still have a hard time understanding the sheer incompetence this took.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:12 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did.

I think time will have to tell on that score, may be too early.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:17 pm

par13del wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did.

I think time will have to tell on that score, may be too early.

Mind elaborating?
 
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genovesemike9
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:17 pm

Would you accept that there's a possibility of a shift change at, say, 6am? No kool-aid require

Yes it is a possibility, but if there was'nt a shift change were the departures before the Ukrainen in danger too, or maybe they took a different route? And if they did'nt...........
 
2175301
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:46 pm

par13del wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did.

I think time will have to tell on that score, may be too early.


I agree that we have to give it time to see the results of the investigation.

The US admitted to the shoot-down the next day, without a bunch of other information in the public about it being a shoot-down.

Iran took 3 days, and only admitted it after there was substantial evidence of a shoot-down (including that the Ukrainian investigators already had at least photographic evidence of the missile hit on the lower cockpit section).

The US Navy started an investigation and the reports issued did not paint the US Navy in very good light. It appears that nothing was hidden; and the US Navy had an action plan to minimize or eliminate such a mistake in the future.

ICAO did an investigation and confirmed that the US Navy did in fact try to contact IA Flight 655 on both military and civilian frequencies (a total of 10 attempts).

The US offered compensation to the families fairly quickly; which Iran turned down and later pursued a case in international court as their view was this was totally an illegal act by the US Navy and that Iran (and IA) had no fault in the case. Many years later Iran accepted compensation; but, never got an admittance of legal liability from the US because the US views the incident as a "fog of war" incident (understandable mistake) that occurred during other active military engagements at the time in the area.

There have been many other independent studies or reports following (especially related to the legalities involved). My personal opinion after reading a number of the reports is that while the US Navy certainly made some key errors... that there was in fact an active battle in the area and the US asks a very reasonable question as to why Iran would allow a civilian airliner to fly through an active battle zone where Iran is using their airforce in the the area. My personal opinion is that mistakes were made by both sides. Iran has steadily refused to admit that they might have even possibly made any mistakes at the time.

Lets see how well Iran really investigates and does other things.

I find it interesting that a previous post in this thread indicates that Iran did not stop civilian air traffic despite the risk of air warfare activity because they thought that the presence of civilian aircraft would minimize or prevent such air warfare activity. I.e: The civilian aircraft were being used as "Human Shields." It appears from the links that people in Iran are not happy about that.

So, yes; lets see how this all plays out and how detailed the investigations and resolutions are.

Have a great day,
 
32andBelow
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:04 am

genovesemike9 wrote:
Would you accept that there's a possibility of a shift change at, say, 6am? No kool-aid require

Yes it is a possibility, but if there was'nt a shift change were the departures before the Ukrainen in danger too, or maybe they took a different route? And if they did'nt...........

Why do you mean took a different route? IFR airplanes can only go where atc tells them. And I’m sure Iranian ATC is heavily if not fully militarized.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:18 am

Bongodog49 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Would you try to contact a cruise missile?

Coz cruise missiles regularly fly at 400kt... :roll:


Yes, that's not far off the speed of a tomahawk

As to the overall scenario, there's lots of theories in all directions, I'm thinking its just a plain muck up. Missile operator towards the end of a long night shift, knows that there's a chance of a retaliatory US strike, been awake for hours, sees a target, seeks guidance from above, nothing forthcoming so pulls the trigger. Where most of us live, all the operator has at risk is their career and personal liberty, in Iran it might be a matter of their life or death.

The entire Iranian system is not condusive to clear lines of command, on the one hand you have an elected president and regular armed forces, on the other you have a supreme leader and the revolutionary guard. Unfortunately the hand with the religous dogma outranks the democratic one

Yeah only about 100kt/20% faster than this plane (and that’s in cruise...faster on final descent). Nevermind that the plane was also climbing out (why would a Tomahawk be doing that out of Tehran).
64 types. 44 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:21 am

cosmopolitan wrote:
How easy would it be for a rouge actor with inside knowledge of Boeing aircraft to "hack" and potentially manipulated critical aircraft systems such as transponders and even flight controls without pilots awareness?


Even with updated flight computers, the 737 is still pretty old tech with cables running from the cockpit to the flight controls. You can not fly the plane remotely. Not sure if hacking the transponder would be possible, even if it was, the system should not sophisticated enough to hide any discrepancy from the pilots.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:36 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Bongodog49 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Coz cruise missiles regularly fly at 400kt... :roll:


Yes, that's not far off the speed of a tomahawk

As to the overall scenario, there's lots of theories in all directions, I'm thinking its just a plain muck up. Missile operator towards the end of a long night shift, knows that there's a chance of a retaliatory US strike, been awake for hours, sees a target, seeks guidance from above, nothing forthcoming so pulls the trigger. Where most of us live, all the operator has at risk is their career and personal liberty, in Iran it might be a matter of their life or death.

The entire Iranian system is not condusive to clear lines of command, on the one hand you have an elected president and regular armed forces, on the other you have a supreme leader and the revolutionary guard. Unfortunately the hand with the religous dogma outranks the democratic one

Yeah only about 100kt/20% faster than this plane (and that’s in cruise...faster on final descent). Nevermind that the plane was also climbing out (why would a Tomahawk be doing that out of Tehran).


Said that from the beginning, why would a US cruise missile be leaving Tehran and headed abroad? Fog of War hardly, if that were the case all civil air traffic would be grounded and diverted and the military would be the sole entity in the airspace. This is about the same as shooting the postal driver leaving your mailbox because there had been some drive by shootings earlier in the week.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
jupiter2
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:50 am

A lot of excuses being offered here for an inexcusable act. Thought the I.R.G. was meant to be the best of Iranian military, best trained, best equipped, so how is a supposedly well trained operator of their best equipment, not able to tell the difference between a relatively slow moving 737, climbing out of a nearby airport, to a fast, small, low flying cruise missile ? It just doesn't add up. Either the training is woefully deficient, the equipment poor, or a combination of both.

As for the handling of the situation since by the Iranian authorities, equally poor. How you can proclaim that a technical problem brought down the aircraft, whilst it's still smouldering, immediately raised suspicions. To continue to deny, despite overwhelming photographic and video evidence being sent to the world by first responders and witnesses, was just making the Iranian authorities look foolish. The expedited site clean up, lack of site control and the images of the wreckage piled up at the airport, didn't exactly instil confidence in the processes either. The Generals statement after they finally had admitted the downing, was eloquent and appeared sincere, but he had also had 3 days to rehearse it. There are too many holes, too many inconsistences and if the current story is the truth, an enormous number of failings on the part of Iran, that I'm not sure which is better, Iran shot in down on purpose, or that there are that many faults in the system, that it was an accident. Either way, not good.
 
planecane
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:52 am

cosmopolitan wrote:
Can we take a moment and discuss cybersecurity, more precisely cyberwarfare, on this topic?

Anyone with specific knowledge on this topic?

In the past few years we have had 3 newish BOEING planes perished in mysterious circumstances. Involving shoot down and disappearances.

How easy would it be for a rouge actor with inside knowledge of Boeing aircraft to "hack" and potentially manipulated critical aircraft systems such as transponders and even flight controls without pilots awareness?

MH370 comes to mind specifically.. and more specifically the fact that all these incidents involved newer Boeing aircraft, and all cases involve sensitive geopolitics.


Pretty much zero chance of hacking a 737NG. The computers are too antiquated to have any means of a hacker taking them over.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:03 am

jupiter2 wrote:
A lot of excuses being offered here for an inexcusable act. Thought the I.R.G. was meant to be the best of Iranian military, best trained, best equipped, so how is a supposedly well trained operator of their best equipment, not able to tell the difference between a relatively slow moving 737, climbing out of a nearby airport, to a fast, small, low flying cruise missile ? It just doesn't add up. Either the training is woefully deficient, the equipment poor, or a combination of both.


Zkpilot wrote:
Yeah only about 100kt/20% faster than this plane (and that’s in cruise...faster on final descent). Nevermind that the plane was also climbing out (why would a Tomahawk be doing that out of Tehran).

Not an AA operator, but can you even see if stuff is climbing on radar? Also if a cruise missile is only about 20% faster than this plane, that's not much... If you are in a do or die situation, would you have the time to process all that information?

Reddevil556 wrote:
Said that from the beginning, why would a US cruise missile be leaving Tehran and headed abroad? Fog of War hardly, if that were the case all civil air traffic would be grounded and diverted and the military would be the sole entity in the airspace. This is about the same as shooting the postal driver leaving your mailbox because there had been some drive by shootings earlier in the week.

If you were in that installation, wouldn't it just look like the missile was coming from some unknown location and headed in your direction? It would make sense to strike an AA emplacement before hitting other targets
 
airzona11
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 am

speedbird52 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:

:checkmark:

People in glass houses and all that. :sarcastic:



Sadly, yes. You could in 1988 on board one of the World's most advanced warships and it seems we still can.

I'm not sure what the point of all this whataboutism is.

Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?

Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?

RadicalX wrote:
Based on the press conference being held by Iranian military it seems like the avaiation authorities were kept in the dark and didn't know about the shot down.

And the cover up would have held if it wasn't for that guy out walking his dog?

I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did. There was no excuse for what we did in 1988, but I do not disagree that there was no excuse for Iran in 2019 either. I still have a hard time understanding the sheer incompetence this took.


Think of the skills, knowledge, and technology that have developed since 1988. To say “dignity” with regard to how Iran speaks about shooting down a commercial airline doesn’t seem to fit, regardless of what happened 30 years ago. The reality is it is a tragic mistake, one that seems very hard to fathom logistically from the known fact of where the SAMs where placed and with all of the technology and training the so called professionals at the helm should have.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:29 am

2175301 wrote:
par13del wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did.

I think time will have to tell on that score, may be too early.


I agree that we have to give it time to see the results of the investigation.

The US admitted to the shoot-down the next day, without a bunch of other information in the public about it being a shoot-down.

Iran took 3 days, and only admitted it after there was substantial evidence of a shoot-down (including that the Ukrainian investigators already had at least photographic evidence of the missile hit on the lower cockpit section).

The US Navy started an investigation and the reports issued did not paint the US Navy in very good light. It appears that nothing was hidden; and the US Navy had an action plan to minimize or eliminate such a mistake in the future.

ICAO did an investigation and confirmed that the US Navy did in fact try to contact IA Flight 655 on both military and civilian frequencies (a total of 10 attempts).

The US offered compensation to the families fairly quickly; which Iran turned down and later pursued a case in international court as their view was this was totally an illegal act by the US Navy and that Iran (and IA) had no fault in the case. Many years later Iran accepted compensation; but, never got an admittance of legal liability from the US because the US views the incident as a "fog of war" incident (understandable mistake) that occurred during other active military engagements at the time in the area.

There have been many other independent studies or reports following (especially related to the legalities involved). My personal opinion after reading a number of the reports is that while the US Navy certainly made some key errors... that there was in fact an active battle in the area and the US asks a very reasonable question as to why Iran would allow a civilian airliner to fly through an active battle zone where Iran is using their airforce in the the area. My personal opinion is that mistakes were made by both sides. Iran has steadily refused to admit that they might have even possibly made any mistakes at the time.

Lets see how well Iran really investigates and does other things.

I find it interesting that a previous post in this thread indicates that Iran did not stop civilian air traffic despite the risk of air warfare activity because they thought that the presence of civilian aircraft would minimize or prevent such air warfare activity. I.e: The civilian aircraft were being used as "Human Shields." It appears from the links that people in Iran are not happy about that.

So, yes; lets see how this all plays out and how detailed the investigations and resolutions are.

Have a great day,

Iran has already claimed to be prosecuting those responsible.The US gave those responsible medals. We could go on this road for a while, I would argue that the USS Vincennes did not even have the right to be in the Persian Gulf. If Kuwait wanted to aid Iraq's war effort, they should have been prepared to defend their own ships. Ironic that Kuwait ended up getting invaded by Saddam just a few years afterwards. But I don't think this conversation will go anywhere
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:30 am

airzona11 wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I'm not sure what the point of all this whataboutism is.

Are you trying to suggest since Iran was the victim of an accidental airliner shootdown it's okay for them to even the score? Even after they ended up shooting down an aircraft largely filled with their own citizens?

Since Iran knows the pain of an accidental airliner shootdown shouldn't we hope they've set up additional training and procedures to make sure they set a higher standard and avoid another tragedy, in this case largely victimizing their own nationals?


And the cover up would have held if it wasn't for that guy out walking his dog?

I am trying to point out the hypocrisy many posters here are showing, and that with the exception of the rampant denialism at the start of this incident, Iran has handled this incident with far more dignity than the United States did. There was no excuse for what we did in 1988, but I do not disagree that there was no excuse for Iran in 2019 either. I still have a hard time understanding the sheer incompetence this took.


Think of the skills, knowledge, and technology that have developed since 1988. To say “dignity” with regard to how Iran speaks about shooting down a commercial airline doesn’t seem to fit, regardless of what happened 30 years ago. The reality is it is a tragic mistake, one that seems very hard to fathom logistically from the known fact of where the SAMs where placed and with all of the technology and training the so called professionals at the helm should have.


Using that thought process there must haven been at least a half dozen “cruise missiles” coming from Tehran in an organized fashion...something like oh departure traffic. Cruise missiles aren’t like Wily Coyote trying to blend in with scheduled air traffic then popping out to make a surprise attack.
Last edited by Reddevil556 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
IADCA
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:02 am

bikerthai wrote:
Thanks KenethP3 for the flight schedule. With this information, I speculate the following scenario, without pre-conceived stereotype.

1) The missile battery crew are not a bunch of trigger happy yahoo's. You wouldn't put any bubba on expensive piece of hardware. They go to front line infantry. I would not be surprised if some of the soldiers manning the battery may have college degrees. If I was one of them, and I have been stationed there for months, I would have memorized if not have a list of scheduled departures on hand.

2) The number of flight that took off prior to the shoot down, but after the rocket strike on US base also tells me that these were not trigger happy missilemen. It's a combination of heighten alert and a plane that was at the wrong place at the wrong time that trigger the missiles to be launched.


3) That bring us to why there was no communication to the battery about the late departure? We already receive word from Iran that the two sides Civil/Military were not talking to each other. So it would be no surprised to me if the late departure of the flight got caught in the red tape of the early morning hours and that information were never forwarded to the military side. Any folks out there familiar with the scheduling tables of that airport? How soon would a scheduled delay show up on the flight table and is disseminated?

To me, the above scenario is most believable without demonizing anybody. I leave the ethicality of allowing flights for others to debate. Mistakes happens as both humans and technology are not perfect.

bt


The problem is that in the location they were in, they encountered an object flying on the same approximate heading, altitude, speed, and ascent profile as the multitude of daily departures from IKA. Only a trigger happy yahoo - or someone so blinded by the stress of the high alert situation that he should have been nowhere near the trigger - would have pulled the trigger. Anyone with half a brain should have been able to deduce that they were probably about to shoot down a civilian flight. This was a target that was ascending, flying relatively slowly, on a constant path away from the center of Tehran.

Take your pick: either they are trigger happy yahoos or the guys with shootdown authority are so poorly trained and disciplined that they get deadly tunnel vision in an entirely innocuous situation. They add up to basically the same thing on an organizational basis.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:09 am

IADCA wrote:
guys with shootdown authority are so poorly trained and disciplined that they get deadly tunnel vision in an entirely innocuous situation.


Good point. I typically hate to pile on the trigger man. They don't get paid enough. The middle management guy with the shoot down authority is an easier target for ridicule. I've seen enough movies to almost believe that some of the higher ups in the chain of command may have gotten there not through compentence.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
airhansa
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:43 am

The key difference between the Iran Air incident and the Ukrainian International incident was that the Americans made multiple attempts to contact the aircraft before it was shotdown, and furthermore the Americans were shooting down an aircraft in a place where there was likely to be an attack, on the other hand the Iranians did not contact PS and shot it down in front of the country's biggest international airport!
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:54 am

kennethP3 wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
A lot of excuses being offered here for an inexcusable act. Thought the I.R.G. was meant to be the best of Iranian military, best trained, best equipped, so how is a supposedly well trained operator of their best equipment, not able to tell the difference between a relatively slow moving 737, climbing out of a nearby airport, to a fast, small, low flying cruise missile ? It just doesn't add up. Either the training is woefully deficient, the equipment poor, or a combination of both.


Zkpilot wrote:
Yeah only about 100kt/20% faster than this plane (and that’s in cruise...faster on final descent). Nevermind that the plane was also climbing out (why would a Tomahawk be doing that out of Tehran).

Not an AA operator, but can you even see if stuff is climbing on radar? Also if a cruise missile is only about 20% faster than this plane, that's not much... If you are in a do or die situation, would you have the time to process all that information?

Reddevil556 wrote:
Said that from the beginning, why would a US cruise missile be leaving Tehran and headed abroad? Fog of War hardly, if that were the case all civil air traffic would be grounded and diverted and the military would be the sole entity in the airspace. This is about the same as shooting the postal driver leaving your mailbox because there had been some drive by shootings earlier in the week.

If you were in that installation, wouldn't it just look like the missile was coming from some unknown location and headed in your direction? It would make sense to strike an AA emplacement before hitting other targets

20% in cruise. When descending to target it’s faster more like 30% or more. Operator might not be able to see if climbing or descending but they can certainly see direction... which in this case was away from Tehran.
64 types. 44 countries. 24 airlines.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:38 am

Zkpilot wrote:
20% in cruise. When descending to target it’s faster more like 30% or more. Operator might not be able to see if climbing or descending but they can certainly see direction... which in this case was away from Tehran.

Away from Tehran but in the direction of the AA operator... Guy gets spooked thinking a missile is coming for him, and he shoots at it. When your life depends on you making a decision in 10 seconds or however much time they had, some people prioritize saving their own skin

The more I think about this, the more I believe the airspace should have been closed until it became clear how the US was going to respond
 
MildBlueYonder
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:54 am

kennethP3 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
20% in cruise. When descending to target it’s faster more like 30% or more. Operator might not be able to see if climbing or descending but they can certainly see direction... which in this case was away from Tehran.

Away from Tehran but in the direction of the AA operator... Guy gets spooked thinking a missile is coming for him, and he shoots at it. When your life depends on you making a decision in 10 seconds or however much time they had, some people prioritize saving their own skin

The more I think about this, the more I believe the airspace should have been closed until it became clear how the US was going to respond


Yeah maybe that was the key. Constant bearing, range decreasing to the SAM site, either don’t have or don’t see the altitude picture but definitely don’t want to die that night, so the operator freaks out and decides to shoot first. Did any of the other flights coming out of IKA pass so close (nearly directly overhead) the SA-15 unit?
 
gloom
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:49 am

I have not seen anywhere this image referenced:

Image

It sure helps to know that it's not like Tor crewmen knew all the time the traffic is coming along. They've only noticed the airplane when 752 crossed approx 1800m, and during acceleration phase. With vertical speed fluctuating. I'm not saying they were right to fire, just pointing out at this point the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating. It was not a clear picture, certainly.

Picture rights: murdoc from Polish forum.

Cheers,
Adam
 
yukimizake
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:55 am

airhansa wrote:
The key difference between the Iran Air incident and the Ukrainian International incident was that the Americans made multiple attempts to contact the aircraft before it was shotdown, and furthermore the Americans were shooting down an aircraft in a place where there was likely to be an attack, on the other hand the Iranians did not contact PS and shot it down in front of the country's biggest international airport!


Not on any standard civil aviation frequencies as the Vincennes was not equipped for doing so. Seven warnings were sent on military frequencies and three on the international distress frequency. The three on the international distress frequency were addressed to "unidentified Iranian aircraft" that the flightcrew of 655 did not recognize as being themselves.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:25 am

yukimizake wrote:
airhansa wrote:
The key difference between the Iran Air incident and the Ukrainian International incident was that the Americans made multiple attempts to contact the aircraft before it was shotdown, and furthermore the Americans were shooting down an aircraft in a place where there was likely to be an attack, on the other hand the Iranians did not contact PS and shot it down in front of the country's biggest international airport!


Not on any standard civil aviation frequencies as the Vincennes was not equipped for doing so. Seven warnings were sent on military frequencies and three on the international distress frequency. The three on the international distress frequency were addressed to "unidentified Iranian aircraft" that the flightcrew of 655 did not recognize as being themselves.


The USS Sides actually did send out a message that could get through to them, about a minute from the missile strike. The aircraft had actually started changing course when it was struck. The CO of the Sides acted in the way one should, the CO of the Vincennes was behaving dangerously and made poor decisions.

This is actually an excellent characterization of how poor leadership can cause disasters.
 
Alfons
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:05 am

gloom wrote:
I have not seen anywhere this image referenced:

Image

It sure helps to know that it's not like Tor crewmen knew all the time the traffic is coming along. They've only noticed the airplane when 752 crossed approx 1800m, and during acceleration phase. With vertical speed fluctuating. I'm not saying they were right to fire, just pointing out at this point the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating. It was not a clear picture, certainly.

Picture rights: murdoc from Polish forum.

Cheers,
Adam


There is an airport where the red line starts. And the line shows a highway where cars drive always the same, hundred times a day. But the military chose to bomb one car out of it, because it was stressed?

Airlines should avoid this highway until it gets secured.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:44 am

Adipocere wrote:
Does anyone know if this was a year round manned missile station? If this was a previously decommissioned site; hastily reactivated to protect the capital after recent events, it could have been manned by operators who may not necessarily have experience being next to a major airport. If the operators were reassigned from distant desert sites, they may not have much experience with commercial traffic blips at all.

It was not a permanent/fixed station. It was a mobile SAM vehicle (Tor/SA-15) that was just deployed to prepare for retaliation after the Iraq missiles.

So yes, it is quite possible that it was manned by less experienced operators that were not familiar with that area and airport.

https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-detai ... nian-plane

the level of preparedness was at wartime conditions; the highest alert level communicated by the integrated air defence to all systems. Under such circumstances, a number of air defence systems was added to Tehran’s air defence ring. The first system – which was behind the incident – was deployed in Bidganeh in western Tehran.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine 737

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:48 am

MildBlueYonder wrote:
Did any of the other flights coming out of IKA pass so close (nearly directly overhead) the SA-15 unit?

Yes, many other flights took the same path, passing over the SA-15 unit. https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067

One possible theory is that there was a shift change, and the new operator was not aware of the IKA departure paths.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:02 am

gloom wrote:
I have not seen anywhere this image referenced: https://i.ibb.co/GC8xfsC/yyy3.jpg

It sure helps to know that it's not like Tor crewmen knew all the time the traffic is coming along. They've only noticed the airplane when 752 crossed approx 1800m, and during acceleration phase. With vertical speed fluctuating. I'm not saying they were right to fire, just pointing out at this point the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating. It was not a clear picture, certainly.

Picture rights: murdoc from Polish forum.

Interesting graphic. From what I can understand, the thick red line is the pressure altitude of PS752. I suppose the "terrain map" shows the radar visibility from the Tor vehicle because it was blocked by mountains. 25 km is the distance from the airport that the missile struck.

"the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating"

Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752? https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067
 
gloom
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:42 am

flybucky wrote:
Interesting graphic. From what I can understand, the thick red line is the pressure altitude of PS752. I suppose the "terrain map" shows the radar visibility from the Tor vehicle because it was blocked by mountains. 25 km is the distance from the airport that the missile struck.


Right.
I think it would be useful to track back now when the missile was launched (we know the distance, speed of missile, we could add 3-4secs for launch and acceleration) and see, how much time there was between plane entering the radar range and missile launch. I guess it would really be just a couple of seconds. And another reason to believe it was a "hot shot", do, or do not, no time to check, analyze and contact higher command.

And yes, I agree as well, it is now becoming important to find out why PS752, and not any other plane.

Cheers,
Adam
 
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Gonzalo
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:28 pm

gloom wrote:
flybucky wrote:
Interesting graphic. From what I can understand, the thick red line is the pressure altitude of PS752. I suppose the "terrain map" shows the radar visibility from the Tor vehicle because it was blocked by mountains. 25 km is the distance from the airport that the missile struck.


Right.
I think it would be useful to track back now when the missile was launched (we know the distance, speed of missile, we could add 3-4secs for launch and acceleration) and see, how much time there was between plane entering the radar range and missile launch. I guess it would really be just a couple of seconds. And another reason to believe it was a "hot shot", do, or do not, no time to check, analyze and contact higher command.

And yes, I agree as well, it is now becoming important to find out why PS752, and not any other plane.

Cheers,
Adam


I’m affraid the answer to the “why” is very simple: lack of adecuate training to the people in charge of the defensive missile launcher. Or as we said here, you can not expect anything good after giving a machine gun to a monkey.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:57 pm

flybucky wrote:
...
Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752?


It appears air defenses were told early morning is when usually cruise missiles would show up. Lack of experience/training, freshly setup site, heightened state of alert, lack of sleep and the feeling he is the last line of defense.
 
kennethP3
Posts: 41
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:25 pm

flybucky wrote:
gloom wrote:
I have not seen anywhere this image referenced: https://i.ibb.co/GC8xfsC/yyy3.jpg

It sure helps to know that it's not like Tor crewmen knew all the time the traffic is coming along. They've only noticed the airplane when 752 crossed approx 1800m, and during acceleration phase. With vertical speed fluctuating. I'm not saying they were right to fire, just pointing out at this point the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating. It was not a clear picture, certainly.

Picture rights: murdoc from Polish forum.

Interesting graphic. From what I can understand, the thick red line is the pressure altitude of PS752. I suppose the "terrain map" shows the radar visibility from the Tor vehicle because it was blocked by mountains. 25 km is the distance from the airport that the missile struck.

"the airplane was on right turn towards base, and with speed rising and ascent fluctuating"

Lots of departures from IKA had similar routes that morning, with the same right turn towards the base, speed rising, and ascent "fluctuating". Those flights were not shot down, so why PS752? https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8198744067

Maybe there was a shift change at 06:00? The last plane to take off before 752 departed at 05:40

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