flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:43 pm

tu204 wrote:
Why they decided to send in another missile?
They see a threat (sequence as I posted somewhere above), shoot at it, it gets hit but the target doesn't fall in pieces but continues, mainly intact and towards them. So obviously either they missed, the missile detonated too far away to create major damage, and it is still a threat, right?

Right, the SAM operator was convinced the target was a cruise missile. From his point of view, he thought the first missile missed, because the "cruise missile" was still continuing on its course and not dropping out of the sky. So he fired a second missile. After the second missile hit, the plane started veering way off course and away from the military area, so no need to fire a third missile.

(In actuality, the first missile did hit. It knocked out the ADS-B and probably all the avionics. But the Tor/SA-15 missile was intended against cruise missiles and fighters, so the explosive is not powerful enough to immediately drop an airliner out of the sky.)
Last edited by flybucky on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:55 pm

NY Times has an article about the new CCTV video. They also annotated the video to more easily identify the events.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/worl ... video.html

The missiles were launched from an Iranian military site around eight miles from the plane.

The Times also established that the transponder stopped working before that missile hit the plane. The new video appears to confirm that an initial strike disabled the transponder, before the second strike, also seen in the video, around 23 seconds later.

The Times has confirmed that the new video was filmed by a camera on the roof of a building near the village of Bidkaneh, four miles from an Iranian military site
 
tu204
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:32 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
If you've already made the decision and fired your first missile, seeing the target continue (and probably make you assume you missed) only leaves you with one course of action. Fire again and make sure.

I repeat. During this lapse of time someone else from the AA squad could have put their minds together and scramble to abord the shooting.

Time passing by is the support for thought evolving. It allows to realize errors.

They were near an international airport, in the middle of a 24/24 fly corridor, it was more than natural to have aerial crafts in the air moving toward them and so on and on and so on.


Unlikely. Consider what I and flybucky posted. In hindsight you can think what you say, but in the heat of the moment there is tunnel vision and a mentality to "complete the mission". Right there at that time it was to neutralise the threat. That decision was made when they fired the first missile. Thereafter there was no more second guessing or contemplation. The decision was made - they had an incoming missile, they shot at it, they missed/didn't damage it enough and it is still coming at them. It was only 24 seconds till they shot the second missile. Trust me, 90% sure that there were not many people there using those 24 seconds to contemplate about being near a major airport and unsure of what they shot at. They were thinking about the missile coming at them and the fact that they didn't get it with their first shot, and now they had less time to get it with the second one, and probably realising that they wouldn't have a third shot at it.

In these situations there is a mentality to "get the job done", contemplation was before the trigger was pulled the first time. Afterwards you convince yourself, maybe subconciously, that what you are doing is the correct course of action and must be completed. Any "blanks" or doubts that you have in your own mind fills in or get thrown away at that point since you have an ultimate goal and you are sure you are doing the right thing.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:01 pm

This is a cheesy video posted 8 years ago on YouTube, probably filmed in the early 2000's of the Tor-M1, the same version that Iran has at a training excersise by the Russian Forces, built in the early 1990's most likely.. You get an idea of that equipment they had available to them.

https://youtu.be/aqi84ZPLNr8

The main question I had untill watching this video is did they have an Infrared Camera connected to the Operator's panel that would give them the oppertunity to identify the target?

Many here kept posting about visual confirmation with someone standing outside with or without binoculars. Well that is pretty unrealistic anyhow.

In the video posted above at about the 1:00 mark we see that the Tor-M1 does have optics, most likely IR but an older generation. At about the 1:30 mark we see a CRT display. My take is back in the late 80's when the system was developed we didn't have cool recognition systems (that I pointed out on the Pantsir, and thought was very usefull) where it would autozoom the target to give you a full screen image to identify what your target is. They probably saw a distant white light on their (not hight tech, LCD) monitor and had seconds to react.

The question I have now is whether or not the SAM crew's means to be able to identify the target (onboard IR camera) were enough to do so and did they use the available resources at hand.
Now we know they had the means, but were these sufficient and were they used?
Last edited by tu204 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
MrBretz
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:13 pm

flybucky wrote:
NY Times has an article about the new CCTV video. They also annotated the video to more easily identify the events.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/worl ... video.html

The missiles were launched from an Iranian military site around eight miles from the plane.

The Times also established that the transponder stopped working before that missile hit the plane. The new video appears to confirm that an initial strike disabled the transponder, before the second strike, also seen in the video, around 23 seconds later.

The Times has confirmed that the new video was filmed by a camera on the roof of a building near the village of Bidkaneh, four miles from an Iranian military site


This makes it crystal clear what happened. Those poor souls on the plane.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:38 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
I repeat. During this lapse of time someone else from the AA squad could have put their minds together and scramble to abord the shooting.


You're assuming that they gained some additional information in that 30 seconds. Also, in reality, the plane and all on board were already doomed, so even if some bright spark had realised what had happened, aborting the second missile was sadly not going to save anyone.
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TaromA380
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:10 am

I'm not assuming anything nor excluding anything. Things can happen in every second. In our case: second thoughts, better identification, someone from the team making 1+1 or the commander finally answering the call.

I say that it wasn't a case of bad decision after 10 seconds as initially reported but 10+30.seconds and maybe more.

Also we don't know the damage brought by the first missile, to say 100% sure that the plane was already doomed.

Otherwise, we've read above about a video recovered from a passenger's phone ? Rumor or ... ?
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:54 am

TaromA380 wrote:
Also we don't know the damage brought by the first missile, to say 100% sure that the plane was already doomed.


The evidence seems to point to the first missile hitting the plane just below the cockpit almost certainly killing the pilots. That would also correspond with losing ADSB at that point. The plane continued to fly until hit by the second missile.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10722453/ ... e-cockpit/
Pictures of the wreckage show the Boeing 737 was hit on the underside of the cockpit when it crashed near Tehran on Tuesday, Oleskiy Danilov said.

Ukraine’s top security official told the BBC that the pilots died before the jet hit the ground – killing all 176 people on board.

Speaking about a photo of the wrecked plane which shows the bottom half of the cockpit is missing, he said: “The photo shows the part where the missile hit.

“It hit the cockpit from underneath. We think this is proof. And it explains why we didn’t hear anything from the pilots. They died immediately after the first hit.
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Revelation
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:02 am

flybucky wrote:
NY Times has an article about the new CCTV video. They also annotated the video to more easily identify the events.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/worl ... video.html

The missiles were launched from an Iranian military site around eight miles from the plane.

The Times also established that the transponder stopped working before that missile hit the plane. The new video appears to confirm that an initial strike disabled the transponder, before the second strike, also seen in the video, around 23 seconds later.

The Times has confirmed that the new video was filmed by a camera on the roof of a building near the village of Bidkaneh, four miles from an Iranian military site

Agree. It's horrifying.
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TaromA380
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:07 am

scbriml wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
Also we don't know the damage brought by the first missile, to say 100% sure that the plane was already doomed.


The evidence seems to point to the first missile hitting the plane just below the cockpit almost certainly killing the pilots. That would also correspond with losing ADSB at that point. The plane continued to fly until hit by the second missile.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10722453/ ... e-cockpit/
Pictures of the wreckage show the Boeing 737 was hit on the underside of the cockpit when it crashed near Tehran on Tuesday, Oleskiy Danilov said.

Ukraine’s top security official told the BBC that the pilots died before the jet hit the ground – killing all 176 people on board.

Speaking about a photo of the wrecked plane which shows the bottom half of the cockpit is missing, he said: “The photo shows the part where the missile hit.

“It hit the cockpit from underneath. We think this is proof. And it explains why we didn’t hear anything from the pilots. They died immediately after the first hit.

Almost certainly is not certainly.

Then there isn't yet any analyse about what damage comes from the first respectively second missile. From the crashed parts, investigators could only assess the combined damage.

From the first missile we know for sure only that it damaged some of the avionics with the lose of ADSB.
 
planecane
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:31 am

cosmopolitan wrote:
I am in receipt of a video shot inside the plane. Heart wrenching
It seemed like the com system was functional even when the wings were completely engulfed


Do you believe the video is authentic? Was somebody live streaming from the cabin or did the phone it was filmed with survive the crash and get looted by somebody at the site?
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:36 am

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk ... li=BBnba9I suggests Ukraine knew the flight was shot down shortly after seeing the wreckage and released photos showing fragmentation damage but didn't call that out because they didn't want to antagonize Iran.

An interesting quote from the article:

“When an airplane departed from a European capital five-plus years ago, Europe still hasn’t finished its investigation into this catastrophe and can’t say who’s guilty,” Danilov said. “In our case, a lot less time has passed in order to understand what happened.”

Sadly Ukraine has this and MH17 in its recent history.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... thout-iran says Ukraine wants an international criminal probe into the shootdown, even if Iran is unlikely to participate in it.
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2175301
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:49 am

tu204 wrote:
This is a cheesy video posted 8 years ago on YouTube, probably filmed in the early 2000's of the Tor-M1, the same version that Iran has at a training excersise by the Russian Forces, built in the early 1990's most likely.. You get an idea of that equipment they had available to them.

https://youtu.be/aqi84ZPLNr8

The main question I had untill watching this video is did they have an Infrared Camera connected to the Operator's panel that would give them the oppertunity to identify the target?

Many here kept posting about visual confirmation with someone standing outside with or without binoculars. Well that is pretty unrealistic anyhow.

In the video posted above at about the 1:00 mark we see that the Tor-M1 does have optics, most likely IR but an older generation. At about the 1:30 mark we see a CRT display. My take is back in the late 80's when the system was developed we didn't have cool recognition systems (that I pointed out on the Pantsir, and thought was very usefull) where it would autozoom the target to give you a full screen image to identify what your target is. They probably saw a distant white light on their (not hight tech, LCD) monitor and had seconds to react.

The question I have now is whether or not the SAM crew's means to be able to identify the target (onboard IR camera) were enough to do so and did they use the available resources at hand.
Now we know they had the means, but were these sufficient and were they used?


Where do you see an optical system. In that video I see 2 displays inside the vehicle. Both are shown up close later: 1 displays showing a radar screen, and the other display is a computer monitor command/status screen.

Have a great day,
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:56 am

cosmopolitan wrote:
I am in receipt of a video shot inside the plane. Heart wrenching
It seemed like the com system was functional even when the wings were completely engulfed


If this is a serious post, how did you get it?
 
cosmopolitan
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:07 am

planecane wrote:
cosmopolitan wrote:
I am in receipt of a video shot inside the plane. Heart wrenching
It seemed like the com system was functional even when the wings were completely engulfed


Do you believe the video is authentic? Was somebody live streaming from the cabin or did the phone it was filmed with survive the crash and get looted by somebody at the site?


Was sent to me on fb. I did some more digging, turned out to be misinformation.

https://www.facebook.com/amir.taherkham ... 5567830903
 
tu204
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:35 am

2175301 wrote:
tu204 wrote:
This is a cheesy video posted 8 years ago on YouTube, probably filmed in the early 2000's of the Tor-M1, the same version that Iran has at a training excersise by the Russian Forces, built in the early 1990's most likely.. You get an idea of that equipment they had available to them.

https://youtu.be/aqi84ZPLNr8

The main question I had untill watching this video is did they have an Infrared Camera connected to the Operator's panel that would give them the oppertunity to identify the target?

Many here kept posting about visual confirmation with someone standing outside with or without binoculars. Well that is pretty unrealistic anyhow.

In the video posted above at about the 1:00 mark we see that the Tor-M1 does have optics, most likely IR but an older generation. At about the 1:30 mark we see a CRT display. My take is back in the late 80's when the system was developed we didn't have cool recognition systems (that I pointed out on the Pantsir, and thought was very usefull) where it would autozoom the target to give you a full screen image to identify what your target is. They probably saw a distant white light on their (not hight tech, LCD) monitor and had seconds to react.

The question I have now is whether or not the SAM crew's means to be able to identify the target (onboard IR camera) were enough to do so and did they use the available resources at hand.
Now we know they had the means, but were these sufficient and were they used?


Where do you see an optical system. In that video I see 2 displays inside the vehicle. Both are shown up close later: 1 displays showing a radar screen, and the other display is a computer monitor command/status screen.

Have a great day,


At exactly 1:00 you can see protective cover on the optics opening from the outside. At exactly 1:30 we see a CRT screen with crosshairs in the middle.
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2175301
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:28 am

For those looking to show how "ethical" Iran is handling the investigation (compared to the US in 1988).... According to the BBC Iran has arrested the person they think is the "dog walker" who filmed and then posted the video showing the plane being hit by the missile; and have charged them with violating national security.

Fair use extract of start of article:

"Iran says it has arrested the person who filmed the footage showing a Ukrainian passenger plane being shot down by a missile.
It is believed the person being detained will face charges related to national security."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51114945

The BBC says they have the wrong person and that the person who shot the video is safe...

Yes! the person who heard an unusual sound and filmed one of the missile hitting the aircraft is legally responsible... At least in "ethical" Iran...

Have a great day,
 
Virtual737
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:29 am

I cannot begin to imagine what those few minutes must have been like for the people on that plane.

If you cannot track a large commercial airliner on a scheduled flight that has just taken off from your own main airport just a few miles away then you have absolutely no right whatsoever to posses missiles, or even stones. The person that pressed the trigger is... well, many things, but the people who put him in the position to be able to press the trigger are guilty as hell. Not that they will ever answer to that guilt.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:07 pm

cosmopolitan wrote:
planecane wrote:
cosmopolitan wrote:
I am in receipt of a video shot inside the plane. Heart wrenching
It seemed like the com system was functional even when the wings were completely engulfed


Do you believe the video is authentic? Was somebody live streaming from the cabin or did the phone it was filmed with survive the crash and get looted by somebody at the site?


Was sent to me on fb. I did some more digging, turned out to be misinformation.

https://www.facebook.com/amir.taherkham ... 5567830903


Can believe people spend so much time and effort to create fake videos.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:13 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
Then there isn't yet any analyse about what damage comes from the first respectively second missile. From the crashed parts, investigators could only assess the combined damage.

From the first missile we know for sure only that it damaged some of the avionics with the lose of ADSB.


Well, I posited a possible scenario which the Ukrainians appear to believe happened, as part of a response to your question of why the second missile was fired. Given the loss of ADSB, the location of the avionics bay and the Ukrainian response to seeing the cockpit wreckage, it's not an unreasonable assumption. It's a theory which fits the currently known facts. It cannot be dismissed until new facts show the theory to be incorrect.

I don't believe anyone would have survived even if the second missile wasn't fired. Given that the Iranian's appear to be fully cooperating, we can but hope that all the facts will eventually be known.
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T4thH
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:32 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
cosmopolitan wrote:
planecane wrote:

Do you believe the video is authentic? Was somebody live streaming from the cabin or did the phone it was filmed with survive the crash and get looted by somebody at the site?


Was sent to me on fb. I did some more digging, turned out to be misinformation.

https://www.facebook.com/amir.taherkham ... 5567830903


Can believe people spend so much time and effort to create fake videos.


For me the flames seems to be wrong, outside of the jet, as we can see them through the window. It seems, the plane is already on the ground and not any more moving. also electric systems are still working e.g. The flames seems to go straight upwards and are not pushed back, if the jet was still flying.

SSJ 100 Superjet crash in Moscow on 05-May-2019? Fire on the wing on the left site, this would perfectly fit. Is someone able to identify, if these are SSJ windows or B737 NG windows?
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
Then there isn't yet any analyse about what damage comes from the first respectively second missile. From the crashed parts, investigators could only assess the combined damage.

From the first missile we know for sure only that it damaged some of the avionics with the lose of ADSB.


Well, I posited a possible scenario which the Ukrainians appear to believe happened, as part of a response to your question of why the second missile was fired. Given the loss of ADSB, the location of the avionics bay and the Ukrainian response to seeing the cockpit wreckage, it's not an unreasonable assumption. It's a theory which fits the currently known facts. It cannot be dismissed until new facts show the theory to be incorrect.

I don't believe anyone would have survived even if the second missile wasn't fired. Given that the Iranian's appear to be fully cooperating, we can but hope that all the facts will eventually be known.

You're answering to never asked questions. I only underlined the 10+30 new timeframe then reminded you that almost certain is not certain.
 
btfarrwm
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:49 pm

scbriml wrote:

The evidence seems to point to the first missile hitting the plane just below the cockpit almost certainly killing the pilots. That would also correspond with losing ADSB at that point. The plane continued to fly until hit by the second missile.



The investigation and recorders (if still functioning) will be interesting. Watching the new CCTV footage, I'm not sure the pilots were killed by the first missile strike because the plane clearly makes a 180 degree turn back towards the airport after the second strike. Sure it's possible that was just the crippled plane, asymmetric loads and ballistics , but watching the video I get the feeling there was some degree of control for a few moments even after the second missile hit and before the big fire started and the plane began to break up.
 
sovietjet
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:10 pm

Why does the CCTV footage have a date of 2019-10-17??
 
MAH4546
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:25 pm

sovietjet wrote:
Why does the CCTV footage have a date of 2019-10-17??


Iran does not use the Georgian calendar.
a.
 
Theseus
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
The evidence seems to point to the first missile hitting the plane just below the cockpit almost certainly killing the pilots. That would also correspond with losing ADSB at that point. The plane continued to fly until hit by the second missile.


Indeed, but in any case, we should hope for a fair and trustable investigation to give an answer to that question (was the plane doomed after the first missile hit ?) among many others.

I do not necessarily mean that the case is comparable, but a DHL A300 was hit by a missile in Irak in 2003 and could land even though it suffered very serious control problems (we can guess a second missile hit could have been fatal since the pilots were barely able to recover the situation). So in this case, it could be that the plane was irrecoverable right after the first hit, but it could also be that it was not.
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:53 pm

Theseus wrote:
I do not necessarily mean that the case is comparable, but a DHL A300 was hit by a missile in Irak in 2003 and could land even though it suffered very serious control problems (we can guess a second missile hit could have been fatal since the pilots were barely able to recover the situation). So in this case, it could be that the plane was irrecoverable right after the first hit, but it could also be that it was not.

The DHL A300 was hit by a portable SA-14 missile. This is a whole different kettle of fish. The warhead on the SA-15 weighs 13x more than the one on the SA-14
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:00 pm

Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system.

So much for everyone applauding them for admitting responsibility.
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flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:25 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system. So much for everyone applauding them for admitting responsibility.

source?
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:27 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system.

So much for everyone applauding them for admitting responsibility.


Link to this news item please. Thank you.
 
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:35 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system.

So much for everyone applauding them for admitting responsibility.


https://www.ibtimes.sg/iran-claims-us-c ... sile-37718
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mxaxai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:56 pm

btfarrwm wrote:
scbriml wrote:

The evidence seems to point to the first missile hitting the plane just below the cockpit almost certainly killing the pilots. That would also correspond with losing ADSB at that point. The plane continued to fly until hit by the second missile.



The investigation and recorders (if still functioning) will be interesting. Watching the new CCTV footage, I'm not sure the pilots were killed by the first missile strike because the plane clearly makes a 180 degree turn back towards the airport after the second strike. Sure it's possible that was just the crippled plane, asymmetric loads and ballistics , but watching the video I get the feeling there was some degree of control for a few moments even after the second missile hit and before the big fire started and the plane began to break up.

I think the first missile even missed, to some extent:
- The video of the second missile hit does not show much if any light coming from the aircraft, so the second missile likely started the fire by hitting the wing or engine.
- The direction of shrapnel impact marks in the stabilizers don't match with the second missile, which appears to have exploded close to the cockpit.
So the first missile probably exploded adjacent to the stabilizers, with most of its shrapnel being dispersed behind the aircraft.
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:04 pm

sovietjet wrote:
Why does the CCTV footage have a date of 2019-10-17??

They use the Iranian calendar. If you convert Jan 8, 2020 to Iranian calendar, it should be Year 1398, 10th month (Dey), 18th day.

The problem is the CCTV system is probably Gregorian (the calendar used in most of the world), which is incompatible with the Iranian calendar. So they probably try to fit it as best as possible. You can't set the year to 1398, so they set it to 2019 (Iranian New Year has not occurred yet). The month/day should be 10-18, so it is one day off.

The reason it's off by a day is that the 8th month in Iranian calendar (The Aban Month) is 30 days, whereas August has 31 days. (Similar situation if you had those mechanical watches with the date that goes to 31. You'd have to manually adjust the date for certain months.)

source: https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/statu ... 7332728834
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:23 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

Thanks for the link. Excerpts from the article:

The Iranian regime, which has been blamed for the downing of the Ukrainian plane, is investigating how a cyberattack by the US may have been the reason why the Iranian weapon system operator confused the passenger aircraft for a cruise missile. The Iranians believe that the Americans disabled their radar system after Iran fired missiles at US troops housed in Iraqi bases in Anbar and Erbil.

Brigadier General Abdollahi said that a probe team has been formed to investigate how the US disabled the Iranian radar system that led to confusion as the weapons operator had difficulty receiving the message from the command center about the removal of the cruise missile attack threat.


This is believable. The U.S. could have launched a cyberattack on Iran's radar and military communications systems to try to prevent them from launching more missile attacks to Iraq. (The U.S. had no defense against missile attacks on their Iraq bases. The soldiers just had to bunker down and hope it didn't land on them.)

So if the military communications systems were jammed, then the Tor operators didn't know the cruise missile threat was cancelled, could not communicate with his commander, and had to make the decision on his own. The blame still lies with the Tor operators and their commanders for putting them in that position with improper training. But it's reasonable to investigate and find the reasons how the tragedy occurred.
 
btfarrwm
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:48 pm

flybucky wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Iran is now saying that the US shot down the plane by hacking the missiles or caused it to be shot down by hacking the ATC system.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

Thanks for the link. Excerpts from the article:

The Iranian regime, which has been blamed for the downing of the Ukrainian plane, is investigating how a cyberattack by the US may have been the reason why the Iranian weapon system operator confused the passenger aircraft for a cruise missile. The Iranians believe that the Americans disabled their radar system after Iran fired missiles at US troops housed in Iraqi bases in Anbar and Erbil.

Brigadier General Abdollahi said that a probe team has been formed to investigate how the US disabled the Iranian radar system that led to confusion as the weapons operator had difficulty receiving the message from the command center about the removal of the cruise missile attack threat.


This is believable. The U.S. could have launched a cyberattack on Iran's radar and military communications systems to try to prevent them from launching more missile attacks to Iraq. (The U.S. had no defense against missile attacks on their Iraq bases. The soldiers just had to bunker down and hope it didn't land on them.)

So if the military communications systems were jammed, then the Tor operators didn't know the cruise missile threat was cancelled, could not communicate with his commander, and had to make the decision on his own. The blame still lies with the Tor operators and their commanders for putting them in that position with improper training. But it's reasonable to investigate and find the reasons how the tragedy occurred.



To say that this explanation by Iran strains credibility is being generous. Iran is a huge country, and I haven't seen any reports that the missiles that were fired by Iran came from anywhere near Tehran. So why would the US be cyber-attacking radar installations that are likely hundreds of miles from any realistic threat?
 
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par13del
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:01 pm

flybucky wrote:
This is believable. The U.S. could have launched a cyberattack on Iran's radar and military communications systems to try to prevent them from launching more missile attacks to Iraq. (The U.S. had no defense against missile attacks on their Iraq bases. The soldiers just had to bunker down and hope it didn't land on them.)

So the US only jammed the Iran communications for 1 flight making it look the US retaliation was only 1 cruise missile so they only shot down 1 a/c and none of those which took off before this flight?

Ok, if we accept that the conspiracy buffs will then revisit the pax list to see who was on that flight that the US was trying to get rid of.

A lot of tin foil in these scenarios to deflect blame....
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:58 pm

par13del wrote:
So the US only jammed the Iran communications for 1 flight making it look the US retaliation was only 1 cruise missile so they only shot down 1 a/c and none of those which took off before this flight?

That could have been when the jamming started.

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories (feel free to view my posting history). I just like to investigate realistic theories and find evidence that supports and/or refutes them.
 
WIederling
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:34 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
sovietjet wrote:
Why does the CCTV footage have a date of 2019-10-17??


Iran does not use the Georgian calendar.

With the (new) Iranian calendar the year then should be 1398

1398 probably is a year value not settable in most CCTV systems?

ignoring the year 10-17 would point to January 7
ref:
http://www.iranchamber.com/calendar/con ... verter.php

I've had my meetup with the Julian Calendar ( astro stuff ) but not Iranian or Islamic ( they differ )
Murphy is an optimist
 
Alfons
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:42 pm

I only see two reasons.

One, Iran shot down knowingly an airliner with own people inside for reasons we might find out after a few years Khomeiny has been kicked and a regime change occured.
Two, we are witnessing a beginning of some kind of power struggle between the IRGC and the governmental aparatus, after the head IRGC has been killed.

I don't believe in all the (sorry) cr*p here regarding shift change, sleepy operators, jammed radars when no one is attacking, falsified radar blips to risk incidents next to an airport (for what?), and professional operators who - in case of doubts - better shoots two rockets in case the airliner starting from the nearby airport, is not an airliner.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:13 pm

Alfons wrote:
I only see two reasons.

One, Iran shot down knowingly an airliner with own people inside for reasons we might find out after a few years Khomeiny has been kicked and a regime change occured.
Two, we are witnessing a beginning of some kind of power struggle between the IRGC and the governmental aparatus, after the head IRGC has been killed.

I don't believe in all the (sorry) cr*p here regarding shift change, sleepy operators, jammed radars when no one is attacking, falsified radar blips to risk incidents next to an airport (for what?), and professional operators who - in case of doubts - better shoots two rockets in case the airliner starting from the nearby airport, is not an airliner.

You don't believe in a much more plausible explanation, but you believe in the Iranians intentionally shooting down their own plane, with no evidence at all supporting this explanation, and no apparent benefit for any faction in the regime? Or are you privy to the internal politics in the highest levels of the Iranian government, but you aren't sharing with us?

FFS people, not everything is a conspiracy
 
flybucky
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:12 pm

WIederling wrote:
ignoring the year 10-17 would point to January 7
ref:
http://www.iranchamber.com/calendar/con ... verter.php

As mentioned in a post above, the reason it's off by a day is that the 8th month (Aban) in Iranian calendar is 30 days, whereas August has 31 days. (Similar situation if you had those mechanical watches with the date that goes to 31. After a month with 30 days, if you don't manually fix it, you'll be a day early the next month.)

On a side note, I think it's a terrible idea to try to use an electronic device designed for one calendar system with a different calendar system. You're just going to be off all the time when you forget to manually adjust the date every month. Much better to set to the native calendar system of the electronic device, then convert it to your regional calendar when needed.
 
kennethP3
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:21 pm

kennethP3 wrote:
You don't believe in a much more plausible explanation, but you believe in the Iranians intentionally shooting down their own plane, with no evidence at all supporting this explanation, and no apparent benefit for any faction in the regime? Or are you privy to the internal politics in the highest levels of the Iranian government, but you aren't sharing with us?

FFS people, not everything is a conspiracy

*a plane full of their own civilians
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:04 am

T4thH wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
cosmopolitan wrote:

Was sent to me on fb. I did some more digging, turned out to be misinformation.

https://www.facebook.com/amir.taherkham ... 5567830903


Can believe people spend so much time and effort to create fake videos.


For me the flames seems to be wrong, outside of the jet, as we can see them through the window. It seems, the plane is already on the ground and not any more moving. also electric systems are still working e.g. The flames seems to go straight upwards and are not pushed back, if the jet was still flying.

SSJ 100 Superjet crash in Moscow on 05-May-2019? Fire on the wing on the left site, this would perfectly fit. Is someone able to identify, if these are SSJ windows or B737 NG windows?



Yes that video is from the SSJ crash. You guys have bad memory or just never saw it back then
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:14 am

Conspiracy asside, it would be most illogical to tip your hand if you have the capability to hack an air defense system just prevent a potential a rocket attack. You save it for when you have a real shooting war or when you want to bomb the Nuclear facility.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
T4thH
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:47 am

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Can believe people spend so much time and effort to create fake videos.


For me the flames seems to be wrong, outside of the jet, as we can see them through the window. It seems, the plane is already on the ground and not any more moving. also electric systems are still working e.g. The flames seems to go straight upwards and are not pushed back, if the jet was still flying.

SSJ 100 Superjet crash in Moscow on 05-May-2019? Fire on the wing on the left site, this would perfectly fit. Is someone able to identify, if these are SSJ windows or B737 NG windows?



Yes that video is from the SSJ crash. You guys have bad memory or just never saw it back then

No, i have never seen this video before. Now, when everyone is running around with mobile phones (and seems regular first to take out the mobile phone, make some selfies...upps, too late to run away), every crash/accident e.g. is filmed, regular more than once, I have not to see every video. For me the videos of the crash itself and the fire/when the fire-crews reached the plane were in my interest, these I have checked.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:11 am

Anyone geolocate the latest CCTV video?
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:57 pm

Who Targeted Ukraine Airlines Flight 752? Iran Shot It Down but There May be More to the Story

https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-targe ... an/5700765
from an ex-CIA specialist who is thinking along the same lines as I have been. Can we confirm that one thing is wrong about the article though, that the transponder was working up until the first hit? Do we know this because of the flightradar data?

I recommend you click the link as there's much more on there than I can cut and paste but here are some excerpts:

"there just might be considerably more to the story involving cyberwarfare carried out by the U.S. and possibly Israeli governments.

What seems to have been a case of bad judgements and human error does, however, include some elements that have yet to be explained. The Iranian missile operator reportedly experienced considerable “jamming” and the planes transponder switched off and stopped transmitting several minutes before the missiles were launched. There were also problems with the communication network of the air defense command, which may have been related.

it is plausible to assume that something or someone deliberately interfered with both the Iranian air defenses and with the transponder on the airplane, possibly as part of an attempt to create an aviation accident that would be attributed to the Iranian government.

[videos] appeared on January 9th, in an Instagram account called ‘Rich Kids of Tehran‘. Quinn asks how the Rich Kids happened to be in “a low-income housing estate on the city’s outskirts [near the airport] at 6 a.m. on the morning of January 8th with cameras pointed at the right part of the sky in time to capture a missile hitting a Ukrainian passenger plane…?”
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:15 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
The Iranian missile operator reportedly experienced considerable “jamming” and the planes transponder switched off and stopped transmitting several minutes before the missiles were launched. [/i]


We need some clarity around the alleged "several minutes" of transponder outage. The plane was only in the air for around two minutes before the first missile struck.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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par13del
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:20 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Who Targeted Ukraine Airlines Flight 752? Iran Shot It Down but There May be More to the Story

https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-targe ... an/5700765
from an ex-CIA specialist who is thinking along the same lines as I have been. Can we confirm that one thing is wrong about the article though, that the transponder was working up until the first hit? Do we know this because of the flightradar data?

The article starts out with what I think is a confirmation then moves on to speculation.
Has the below been confirmed by anyone that we can accept as gospel?

"The claim that Major General Qassem Soleimani was a “terrorist” on a mission to carry out an “imminent” attack that would kill hundreds of Americans turned out to be a lie,
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:32 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Quinn asks how the Rich Kids happened to be in “a low-income housing estate on the city’s outskirts [near the airport] at 6 a.m. on the morning of January 8th with cameras pointed at the right part of the sky in time to capture a missile hitting a Ukrainian passenger plane…?”


Typical obfuscation from someone with an agenda or someone who is not in tune with internet handle. I can set up an account called "Smart Ass Asian" but that doesn't make me smart, or an ass. :rotfl:

And yes, I do bike. But not as much lately.

bt

PS. In some part of the world, having rich and poor folks living next to each other is not un-common. This comes about when you have poor folks that live on their family land for ages. But then one family member becomes rich for some reason and instead of moving away, they decide to build on the existing land they have.
Last edited by bikerthai on Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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