bdak
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QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:11 pm

I see that QF9 flying PER-LHR is having to divert around Iraq/Iran to make it to London, and as a result a result needs to bump 90 passengers from each flight to make it. The flight is approx 50 mins longer.

A few questions:

- How do the choose who gets bumped and where do they get bumped to?
- Does this now make the flight the world's longest? It was 3rd longest before?

Source (there are a few online): https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881428511z
 
Scarebus34
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:28 pm

Where’s your source that 90 passengers will be bumped? That’s extreme. Looking at past flight paths doesn’t appear QF9 ever transited Iranian or Iraqi airspace.
 
SQ317
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:33 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Where’s your source that 90 passengers will be bumped? That’s extreme. Looking at past flight paths doesn’t appear QF9 ever transited Iranian or Iraqi airspace.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... 787-flight Source is QF spokesperson. And QF9 goes over Iran or Iraq almost every day
 
SQ317
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:35 pm

bdak wrote:
I see that QF9 flying PER-LHR is having to divert around Iraq/Iran to make it to London, and as a result a result needs to bump 90 passengers from each flight to make it. The flight is approx 50 mins longer.

A few questions:

- How do the choose who gets bumped and where do they get bumped to?
- Does this now make the flight the world's longest? It was 3rd longest before?

Source (there are a few online): https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881428511z


Suppose the easiest pax to bump are non-PER originating pax, as they can be routed through Singapore on QF metal. But there probably aren't 90 seats going spare on QF1 SIN-LHR. Suppose they could ask EK to pick up some pax too?
 
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qf789
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:43 pm

bdak wrote:
I see that QF9 flying PER-LHR is having to divert around Iraq/Iran to make it to London, and as a result a result needs to bump 90 passengers from each flight to make it. The flight is approx 50 mins longer.

A few questions:

- How do the choose who gets bumped and where do they get bumped to?
- Does this now make the flight the world's longest? It was 3rd longest before?

Source (there are a few online): https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881428511z


The 90 passengers sounds like a worse case scenario. Last year there was one flight at 18hrs20mins which I believe was had around 40 blocked seats. They have also said they may do a fuel stop at SIN or HKG. Today's flight they didn't really have a choice as not enough time to position crew to SIN

It will be Y passengers that are bumped. They will either be accommodated via SIN in QF1 or they will end up on EK, its not like EK has been leaving full out of PER lately, their loads have been pretty poor

Not being able to fly over Iraq/Iran reduces the optimal route, it changes day to day depending on winds, I would expect it would add a couple hundred miles to the flight
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Cubsrule
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:50 pm

qf789 wrote:
bdak wrote:
I see that QF9 flying PER-LHR is having to divert around Iraq/Iran to make it to London, and as a result a result needs to bump 90 passengers from each flight to make it. The flight is approx 50 mins longer.

A few questions:

- How do the choose who gets bumped and where do they get bumped to?
- Does this now make the flight the world's longest? It was 3rd longest before?

Source (there are a few online): https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881428511z


The 90 passengers sounds like a worse case scenario. Last year there was one flight at 18hrs20mins which I believe was had around 40 blocked seats. They have also said they may do a fuel stop at SIN or HKG. Today's flight they didn't really have a choice as not enough time to position crew to SIN

It will be Y passengers that are bumped. They will either be accommodated via SIN in QF1 or they will end up on EK, its not like EK has been leaving full out of PER lately, their loads have been pretty poor

Not being able to fly over Iraq/Iran reduces the optimal route, it changes day to day depending on winds, I would expect it would add a couple hundred miles to the flight


Are there generally some pax on QF9 who connect (backtrack) onto the Continent at LHR? For those passengers - even J passengers - EK might not be that much of a downgrade.
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dcaviation
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:05 pm

Whats the LF on this flight anyway? Is it going out full every day in both directions?
 
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qf789
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:10 pm

dcaviation wrote:
Whats the LF on this flight anyway? Is it going out full every day in both directions?


It lies between 91 and 94%
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PHLspecial
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:12 pm

qf789 wrote:
dcaviation wrote:
Whats the LF on this flight anyway? Is it going out full every day in both directions?


It lies between 91 and 94%


Is that current or numbers from last year?
 
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qf789
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:13 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
qf789 wrote:
dcaviation wrote:
Whats the LF on this flight anyway? Is it going out full every day in both directions?


It lies between 91 and 94%


Is that current or numbers from last year?


The loads are pretty consistent year round
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WorldFlier
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:24 pm

Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

PerLHR.gif


Image

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PER-LHR,per-CRZ-lhr

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?
 
airbazar
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:00 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?


I said the same thing previously. This was my take on it:

Seems a bit extreme. Maybe they're being overly cautious at this early stage until they have a better plan.
A routing over Oman, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would be almost identical in length to their normal route over the Gulf.
2 days ago (9,172mi)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /YPPH/EGLL
A similar route "via" Cairo (~9,193mi)
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=per-sll-ca ... =wls&DU=mi
Does QF have a problem flying over Saudi Arabia?[/quote]
 
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Aesma
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:09 pm

Keep in mind you need diversion airports. If some of those used to be in Iran or Iraq, now they need to be elsewhere.
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PlymSpotter
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:11 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Where’s your source that 90 passengers will be bumped? That’s extreme. Looking at past flight paths doesn’t appear QF9 ever transited Iranian or Iraqi airspace.


They do very frequently. I'm not sure what you are looking at, but yesterday's QF9 transited Iraqi airspace at 40,000ft.

For reference, yesterdays QF9 recorded 19:37-05:00, taking 17h 22m. Today's QF9 departed at 19:54 and is currently estimated to arrive at 05:15 - so very slightly shorter. It is currently over India, perhaps heading North over Pakistan?

Will be interesting to see the actual arrival time.
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bombayduck
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:29 pm

On FR24 QF9 is over Sri Lanka as of 18.27pm U.K time. With an estimated time of 04.41am.
 
Jalap
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:34 pm

bdak wrote:
I see that QF9 flying PER-LHR is having to divert around Iraq/Iran to make it to London, and as a result a result needs to bump 90 passengers from each flight to make it. The flight is approx 50 mins longer.

A few questions:

- How do the choose who gets bumped and where do they get bumped to?
- Does this now make the flight the world's longest? It was 3rd longest before?


Also, wouldn’t adding a technical stop for fuel along the way not be better than to bump 90 passengers?
 
alasizon
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:00 pm

I see no way that bumping 90 pax can be the correct number. Taking just their weight into account that is almost 17,000 lbs and there is no way they need 17,000 lbs more of fuel for the short detour.
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PlymSpotter
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:16 pm

bombayduck wrote:
On FR24 QF9 is over Sri Lanka as of 18.27pm U.K time. With an estimated time of 04.41am.


Interesting, says 05:15 on the mobile app.

Jalap wrote:
Also, wouldn’t adding a technical stop for fuel along the way not be better than to bump 90 passengers?


A technical stop could easily add 1.5h to the trip time - so 3h per rotation.

Aside of issues with crew hours, that could easily upset the schedules meaning whole flights get cancelled.
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eta unknown
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:32 pm

Never, ever, ever bump biz class pax if there are other alternatives (read: economy pax) so by default any backtracking pax will continue to backtrack as originally planned.
If 90 pax is indeed the number then bumping them is far cheaper than landing fees.
 
fessor
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:56 pm

I have tried to be bump in Biz class with LH, QF and BA 2 times ended on TG and 1 time on SQ so it does happen.
 
x1234
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:38 pm

Have they considered flying over Afghanistan or Saudi/Egyptian airspace (east/west of the problem)?
 
airbazar
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:13 pm

bombayduck wrote:
On FR24 QF9 is over Sri Lanka as of 18.27pm U.K time. With an estimated time of 04.41am.

That route will indeed add 50 mins. That detour around the northern part of Iran is quite significant because they will also likely have to detour around Crimea. Make me think that QF doesn't have overflight right for Saudi Arabia. Or maybe the Saudis just charge too much.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:56 pm

airbazar wrote:
bombayduck wrote:
On FR24 QF9 is over Sri Lanka as of 18.27pm U.K time. With an estimated time of 04.41am.

That route will indeed add 50 mins. That detour around the northern part of Iran is quite significant because they will also likely have to detour around Crimea. Make me think that QF doesn't have overflight right for Saudi Arabia. Or maybe the Saudis just charge too much.


The route posted by WorldFlier has them flying right over the area where MH17 was shot down, but even staying further north and crossing from Russia into Belarus is a shorter distance than flying south via Saudi airspace.

Obviously GCMap only shows a straight line, not actual flight paths, but PER-KBL-MSQ-LHR is 9084mi whereas PER-RUH-AMM-LHR is 9109mi (noting that the GC line between RUH and LHR goes through Syrian airspace).

EDIT: Come to think of it the actual route via Saudi would probably be more like PER-SLL-SSH-LHR which is 9193mi. I would be interested to see if QF10 takes this sort of routing, staying further south to take advantage of the tailwinds. It makes sense for QF9 to track further north to keep away from headwind.
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PlymSpotter
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:10 pm

The Northern detour adds 1-2% to the distance - admittedly using crude calculations via GCM.

Unless there are strong headwinds, I do not see how it can add 50 minutes to the flight time. Maybe 20-30 max.

Still, in around 6 hours we should know for sure.
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smi0006
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:12 am

PlymSpotter wrote:
The Northern detour adds 1-2% to the distance - admittedly using crude calculations via GCM.

Unless there are strong headwinds, I do not see how it can add 50 minutes to the flight time. Maybe 20-30 max.

Still, in around 6 hours we should know for sure.


Maybe they are adding additional fuel due to increased airspace congestion in these areas, and last min changes? I recall when the MH aircraft was shot down, QF copped a lot of flack in the media for continuing to fly over these airspace, I’d imagine they are trying to head off some of the bad PR. 90 pax seems extreme to me, better to oversell it than have to undersell.
 
planesarecool
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:11 am

Given the length of the flight, it's flight time will have a large variance day to day anyway. On this particular day, the Northern routing takes it head on into a second jetstream over Northern Europe that it would've largely avoided on the usual routing. The routing also means it spends more time in Indian airspace, where airway routings aren't the most direct and efficient, and shortcuts are nigh on impossible.

A southern routing through Saudi Arabia would've taken a larger penalty Westbound due to the consistent 150-200 knot headwind between India and Egypt. It wouldn't surprise me if, assuming an overflight permit can be obtained, the eastbound flight takes this routing.

Also important to remember that the longer the flight, the more fuel required to carry the fuel. On a flight of this length on the 787, for every 1000kg of extra fuel required on the ground, around 350-400kg would be burnt along the way in order to carry the extra weight. 100kg of fuel would provide less than a minute of extra flight time, so I'd estimate that, all else being equal, at least an extra 5-6 tons of fuel would be required for this routing, not that far short of the 17,000lbs number quoted above for 90 passengers.

Edited to add that the actual number of people required to be offloaded, if any, would be determined at the flight planning stage each day. The article even states "up to" 90, and I'd imagine the actual number would be much lower on most days.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:05 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
airbazar wrote:
bombayduck wrote:
On FR24 QF9 is over Sri Lanka as of 18.27pm U.K time. With an estimated time of 04.41am.

That route will indeed add 50 mins. That detour around the northern part of Iran is quite significant because they will also likely have to detour around Crimea. Make me think that QF doesn't have overflight right for Saudi Arabia. Or maybe the Saudis just charge too much.


The route posted by WorldFlier has them flying right over the area where MH17 was shot down, but even staying further north and crossing from Russia into Belarus is a shorter distance than flying south via Saudi airspace.

Obviously GCMap only shows a straight line, not actual flight paths, but PER-KBL-MSQ-LHR is 9084mi whereas PER-RUH-AMM-LHR is 9109mi (noting that the GC line between RUH and LHR goes through Syrian airspace).

EDIT: Come to think of it the actual route via Saudi would probably be more like PER-SLL-SSH-LHR which is 9193mi. I would be interested to see if QF10 takes this sort of routing, staying further south to take advantage of the tailwinds. It makes sense for QF9 to track further north to keep away from headwind.



The actual route on 01.08.2020 has them going just north of Sri Lanka, north into India, then crossing Pakistan and Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, then in Russia taking a further turn to the north to avoid Ukraine. Taking the route over Belarus, Poland, Germany, The Netherlands and finally arriving. Flight time estimated art 17:52. About 30 minutes longer than the flight on 01.07.2020 which passed up the Persian gulf, Iraq, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, etc.
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mcdu
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:59 am

WorldFlier wrote:
Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

PerLHR.gif

Image

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PER-LHR,per-CRZ-lhr

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?


You don’t fly great circle. You fly airways (charted routings) and the airway might have turns that a great circle route wouldn’t have. You may get a direct across and FIR but my experience in that part of the world is you fly the airway. Especially over the high terrain areas for drift down considerations.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:49 pm

mcdu wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

PerLHR.gif

Image

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PER-LHR,per-CRZ-lhr

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?


You don’t fly great circle. You fly airways (charted routings) and the airway might have turns that a great circle route wouldn’t have. You may get a direct across and FIR but my experience in that part of the world is you fly the airway. Especially over the high terrain areas for drift down considerations.


If you're not flying Great Circle, you should be able to fly routes that avoid Iran with minimal penalties, no?
 
airbazar
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:42 pm

mcdu wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

PerLHR.gif

Image

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PER-LHR,per-CRZ-lhr

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?


You don’t fly great circle. You fly airways (charted routings) and the airway might have turns that a great circle route wouldn’t have. You may get a direct across and FIR but my experience in that part of the world is you fly the airway. Especially over the high terrain areas for drift down considerations.


Yup. Like I said staying the heck away from Crimea and in fact all of Ukraine.
The southbound flight appears to be taking a similar path until it reaches India at which point it will likely stay further north and ride the winds.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /EGLL/YPPH

RyanairGuru wrote:
The route posted by WorldFlier has them flying right over the area where MH17 was shot down, but even staying further north and crossing from Russia into Belarus is a shorter distance than flying south via Saudi airspace.

MH17 was not shot down over Crimea so that would still be avoiding airspace over Crimea.
However, they avoided Ukrainian air space all together.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /YPPH/EGLL
 
mcdu
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:58 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
mcdu wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Bypassing Iranian airspace only adds 0.6% of the distance on a GC Route:

PerLHR.gif

Image

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PER-LHR,per-CRZ-lhr

How can that cause a 50 minute delay unless you're telling me the winds are so much worse flying slightly north of Iran's mountains over plains?


You don’t fly great circle. You fly airways (charted routings) and the airway might have turns that a great circle route wouldn’t have. You may get a direct across and FIR but my experience in that part of the world is you fly the airway. Especially over the high terrain areas for drift down considerations.


If you're not flying Great Circle, you should be able to fly routes that avoid Iran with minimal penalties, no?


Not necessarily. Airspace routings can easily add :50 to that flight. It’s not just putting two pins in a map. Some that airspace, terrain and airways will require a lot of added air miles
 
ltbewr
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:22 pm

This is likely to make sure have enough reserves of fuel so don't have to make a fuel stop for possible delays from weather or traffic at LRH. This also means keeping those in the premium fare seats happy so don't have a longer than expected trip.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:28 pm

Hilarious to read all this. QF uses sophisticated dispatch and flight planning software and everyone calling BS because you’re using a great circle route app! The numbers quoted from QF would be worst case scenario, quit taking everything so literal.
 
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qf789
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 pm

The GCM on PER-LHR is 7829nm. The flight on 8th of Jan was 8078nm, the longest I believe was on 31 Dec 19 at 8230nm
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RyanairGuru
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:48 pm

airbazar wrote:
mcdu wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:


RyanairGuru wrote:
The route posted by WorldFlier has them flying right over the area where MH17 was shot down, but even staying further north and crossing from Russia into Belarus is a shorter distance than flying south via Saudi airspace.

MH17 was not shot down over Crimea so that would still be avoiding airspace over Crimea.
However, they avoided Ukrainian air space all together.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /YPPH/EGLL


I'm very much aware that it was not over Crimea, thank you very much. The map posted by WorldFlier doesn't pass over Crimea either, so I'm really not sure what your point is.
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airbazar
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Re: QF9 Load Restrictions to due Iran/Iraq closure

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:44 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
airbazar wrote:
mcdu wrote:


MH17 was not shot down over Crimea so that would still be avoiding airspace over Crimea.
However, they avoided Ukrainian air space all together.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /YPPH/EGLL


I'm very much aware that it was not over Crimea, thank you very much. The map posted by WorldFlier doesn't pass over Crimea either, so I'm really not sure what your point is.


You brought up MH17, not I. So if anything, what is your point?
But since you seem confused I'll explain. Crimea is under Russian control however no international organization recognized Crimea as being part of Russia. As a result there are no international agreements to fly airplanes over Crimea except Russian airlines. That's my point. Now care to explain why you brought up MH17 to a thread that has absolutely nothing to do with it?

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