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frigatebird
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:01 am

I don't think the next Boeing aircraft will be a twin aisle NMA. DL will have to look for other 767 replacement possibilities.

marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
How attractive would a lower MTOW A330-800 be to airlines?

Not very at all, for the purpose of the market segment we're speaking of.

Reduced TOW A330s with no center tank have been available since the mid '90s.... not exactly a new concept. If they wanted that, they could've gotten it a long time ago.


They could, but it wasn't needed. With already a big fleet of A330-900s, a "regional" A330-800 might be "the next best" solution as a replecement for some routes currently flown with the 767-300ER.

I'm not totally sure if it's true, but I heard rumors the A338 will cost about about the same to operate as an A339. So, if you don't need the range of the A338, you might as well use the A339 as the additional seats are 'free of charge'.

Another possibility could be used 787-8s. Not because it's DL, but I think it could be a smart opportunity to grab the 787-8s QR will retire from 2024 onwards.

As DL hasn't ordered a true A320/738 replacement yet. So I think DL will be interested in a similarly sized new Boeing aircraft, if only to become not too Airbus dependent.

RJMAZ wrote:
chrisp390 wrote:
Does this mean the Boeing NMA is in fact going ahead, and Boeing is maybe just waiting to get past the Max issues before launching it?

I have been saying this for 6 months. The 797 is coming.

It would look really bad to publicly launch a new aircraft when the 737MAX is grounded. Common sense really.

There is no law that states an aircraft must be publicly launched before development can start. Boeing could launch the aircraft on the same day as the first flight if they wanted to. Boeing of course wouldn't do that as keeping things secret for that long puts up the price significantly. On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.


Well probably not cutting the first metal yet, but launching a new single aisle 797 in 2022 with EIS in 2027 could be a possibility. Boeing may have started development 2 years before launch, waiting for the MAX crisis to quiet down.
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:03 am

RJMAZ wrote:
On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.


Right. So how long between official launch and EIS? Eighteen months ought to do it then - Boeing launches at Farnborough in July, takes a gazillion orders and plane enters service before end January 2022. Sweet.

Checklist787 wrote:
I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's


You're assuming:

1 - DL cannot convert any of their existing 100 A321neo orders to XLR
2 - DL won't order more
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keesje
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:12 am

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.


Right. So how long between official launch and EIS? Eighteen months ought to do it then - Boeing launches at Farnborough in July, takes a gazillion orders and plane enters service before end January 2022. Sweet.


That's Great, what a GameChanger. Congratulations to Boeing and Delta !
And GE, Spirit, Raytheon Collins, Safran etc Awesome..
Last edited by keesje on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DartHerald
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:13 am

I'm still puzzled. It is said that the original A330-2/300 lacked range but over time its MTOW has increased to allow more fuel to be carried. How much of the increased weight has due to structural strengthening and why could that not be reversed to create a more attractive limited capability A330-8/900?
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:22 am

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.


Right. So how long between official launch and EIS? Eighteen months ought to do it then - Boeing launches at Farnborough in July, takes a gazillion orders and plane enters service before end January 2022. Sweet.

Checklist787 wrote:
I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's


You're assuming:

1 - DL cannot convert any of their existing 100 A321neo orders to XLR
2 - DL won't order more


Please don't say what I didn't say...

1. Indeed Delta could convert, but why are not they not done so?

2. They can always order the A321neo / LR's / -XLR's but that does not exclude that it will not order the NMA

2+. Just like United for that matter ... :)
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:39 am

keesje wrote:

That's Great, what a GameChanger. Congratulations to Boeing and Delta !
And GE, Spirit, Raytheon Collins, Safran etc Awesome..


Do not be in such a hurry, you will have the opportunity to do it for this GameChanger, when the 737MAX crisis
will behind.. :)
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:45 am

frigatebird wrote:
Well probably not cutting the first metal yet, but launching a new single aisle 797 in 2022 with EIS in 2027 could be a possibility. Boeing may have started development 2 years before launch, waiting for the MAX crisis to quiet down.

Boeing has already stated the 797 is a small sized, medium range widebody. It would be too late to change that to a single aisle as the engines have already gone out to tender with 48,000lb of thrust 12 months ago.

Boeing selected the 787 engine 5 years before the first flight and 7 years before service. So that would point to a 2026 service date for the 797. The 787 did have some delays so I expext the 797 timeline to be slightly quicker.

Late 2020 launch. 2023 first flight. 2025 service date.

2025 was the planned service date that has been stated many times by CEO's. The 737MAX and 777X problems should not change the timeline
by more than 6 months. The 777X problems has GE doing most of the work and the 737MAX problems are mainly regulatory and on the avionics side of things.

Nearly all of the engineers that do structure work would be available to work on the 797. The 797 would no doubt have an off the shelf 787 cockpit, avionics package and electric systems so that would speed things right up.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:47 am

keesje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.


Right. So how long between official launch and EIS? Eighteen months ought to do it then - Boeing launches at Farnborough in July, takes a gazillion orders and plane enters service before end January 2022. Sweet.


That's Great, what a GameChanger. Congratulations to Boeing and Delta !
And GE, Spirit, Raytheon Collins, Safran etc Awesome..


What I understand is a launch in 2022-2025 for an EIS in 2027.

It is also doable ...
I agree with RJMAZ :thumbsup:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
panamair
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:30 pm

I believe that Glen Hauenstein (Delta President) has been on record at the recent Investor Day event (December 2019) as saying that they are not entirely convinced yet of the business case (for Delta) of the A321XLR as the replacement for their 757/767s transatlantic flying.

This was Glen's response to an analyst question:

"....A321XLR, we don't know whether or not – we fly the Boeing 757 today in the trans-Atlantic and we really don't know with the labor rates where they are today, whether or not narrow-bodies in the trans-Atlantic makes sense, we're studying that. And the XLR is really just a A321neo with a tank on it. And so, we can always move some of our orders to that, but really we see the application more for working on our cost structure in Europe, serving big cities and lowering our carbon profile, at the same time bringing more efficiency to our trans-Atlantic fleet and we're not convinced going with a long and narrow plane as where the evolution is going...."

Hence why they are still trying to push Boeing for the NMA...
Last edited by panamair on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:34 pm

panamair wrote:
I believe that Glen Hauenstein (Delta President) has been on record at the recent Investor Day event (December 2019) as saying that they are not entirely convinced yet of the business case (for Delta) of the A321XLR as the replacement for their 757/767s transatlantic flying.

This was Glen's response to an analyst question:

"....A321XLR, we don't know whether or not – we fly the Boeing 757 today in the trans-Atlantic and we really don't know with the labor rates where they are today, whether or not narrow-bodies in the trans-Atlantic makes sense, we're studying that. And the XLR is really just a A321neo with a tank on it. And so, we can always move some of our orders to that, but really we see the application more for working on our cost structure in Europe, serving big cities and lowering our carbon profile, at the same time bringing more efficiency to our trans-Atlantic fleet and we're not convinced going with a long and narrow plane as where the evolution is going...."


That's a call for more seat per plane, and, specifically, more seats per pilot wage $.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:06 pm

reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. This will be quite the windfall for whoever gets the contract. The 757 with the GTF seems to have traction except for cost and all that was unofficial chat.

Grabbing popcorn.....waiting....

Not wanting to beat someone when they're down, but can you remind us how's Boeing supposed "superior quality" is selling right now???
Oh, and, are you aware that the 757 production line is gone and dead? There is no "757 with the GFT", and it's not gaining any traction.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:17 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Well probably not cutting the first metal yet, but launching a new single aisle 797 in 2022 with EIS in 2027 could be a possibility. Boeing may have started development 2 years before launch, waiting for the MAX crisis to quiet down.

Boeing has already stated the 797 is a small sized, medium range widebody. It would be too late to change that to a single aisle as the engines have already gone out to tender with 48,000lb of thrust 12 months ago.

Boeing selected the 787 engine 5 years before the first flight and 7 years before service. So that would point to a 2026 service date for the 797. The 787 did have some delays so I expext the 797 timeline to be slightly quicker.

Late 2020 launch. 2023 first flight. 2025 service date.

2025 was the planned service date that has been stated many times by CEO's. The 737MAX and 777X problems should not change the timeline
by more than 6 months. The 777X problems has GE doing most of the work and the 737MAX problems are mainly regulatory and on the avionics side of things.

Nearly all of the engineers that do structure work would be available to work on the 797. The 797 would no doubt have an off the shelf 787 cockpit, avionics package and electric systems so that would speed things right up.


The timeline is already changed. Launch was expected in 2017, than 2018, than 2019 and now you expect it in 2020. All without changing the end date, the EIS in 2015.
I have not yet heard the current CEO state any timeline for a potential 797. Or do you mean the last CEO, who's stated timelines in other things match reality to perfection? :sarcastic:

If you compare the hypothetical 797 with the 787, the last clean sheet project at Boeing.
Launch 2004, EIS 2011, that is 7 years. There were 5 years between launch and first flight. And a lot of the design work was moved over from the Sonic cruiser project.
If we look at the last project at Boeing the 777X, launch in 2013 and 7 years later we wait for the first flight.
So Boeing has not been speeding up development and you talk about a clean sheet.
Boeing has still to choose the engine. You assume only 3 years from choosing the engine to first flight. Both the last efforts by Airbus and Boeing, A330neo and 777X, have been delayed by the engines.
So I suspect, that the timeline you are painting is straight wishful thinking.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:24 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Boeing has already stated the 797 is a small sized, medium range widebody. It would be too late to change that to a single aisle as the engines have already gone out to tender with 48,000lb of thrust 12 months ago.


A RFP should not be equated with "out to tender".
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:25 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Max Q wrote:
NMA is toast


Boeing dithered too long and Airbus totally outmaneuvered them

You can’t get narrowbody economics from a widebody,
that’s never going to change



If it were true Ed Bastian would have rushed to the A321neo derivatives. It's just that the NMA has nothing to do with the A321neo derivatives in terms of the number of passengers ...

A. Net still hasn't understood :roll:

DL hasn't ordered a boatload of A321neo derivatives (although they can always top up their orders and/or convert existing orders) as they already have quite an order book.
Also, as savvy executives, Ed and other C-suite guys are waiting to see who will fire first and with which breakthrough technology; they don't want to lock themselves in a contract 5-or-more years down the line just to find out the competition has a much better product available.

As of January 2020, DL has ordered what they felt was the best airplanes that fit their network and their financial expectations; as have all the other well-run airlines (regardless whether those orders went to Airbus, Boeing or both).

Not sure why you feel the need to be snarky towards those who do not share your (I believe) biased opinion.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:27 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
chrisp390 wrote:
Does this mean the Boeing NMA is in fact going ahead, and Boeing is maybe just waiting to get past the Max issues before launching it?

I have been saying this for 6 months. The 797 is coming.

It would look really bad to publicly launch a new aircraft when the 737MAX is grounded. Common sense really.

There is no law that states an aircraft must be publicly launched before development can start. Boeing could launch the aircraft on the same day as the first flight if they wanted to. Boeing of course wouldn't do that as keeping things secret for that long puts up the price significantly. On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.

If we follow Boeing's naming logic, the 797 is indeed coming. But, what will the 797 really look like? That's still up for debate.
We've been showed this, and that, and something else. Boeing has (I sure hope) one or more design in the pipeline; which one will come first and to fill which market, that's where the question remains given what has been publicly shown and the (lack of) offer to sell.
 
musman9853
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:37 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
Without some magic and/or deep, deep discounts from Boeing, many people simply don’t see Delta buying a new Boeing jet in the near-medium term.

DL has bought the Airbus alternative to every new jet in Boeing’s product stack. Their 757s can easily be replaced by A321s. And it’s doubtful that their 767s can’t be replaced by a combo of A330neos and more frequent A321s.

Boeing has also no right to launch a new airliner program without cleaning house. Their civilian and military programs are currently a mess. The NMA as it is would be a niche aircraft (any other airlines besides the US3 that have even expressed interest in the hypothetical jet?)


Qf, tui, and a bunch of others off the top of my head. Granted, most of them said that before the max issue so it's very possible they wouldn't take it now.
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:49 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
What I understand is a launch in 2022-2025 for an EIS in 2027.

It is also doable ...
I agree with RJMAZ :thumbsup:


It took Boeing nearly six years from MAX launch to EIS. It took Boeing six years from 747-8 launch to EIS. The 777X will be over seven years from launch to EIS. Those were all derivatives of existing frames. Boeing's last all-new frame took over seven years from launch to EIS rather than the planned four (and that was with a lot of work already done via the Sonic Cruiser).

I think you're both overly optimistic on how long it will take.
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frigatebird
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
What I understand is a launch in 2022-2025 for an EIS in 2027.

It is also doable ...
I agree with RJMAZ :thumbsup:


It took Boeing nearly six years from MAX launch to EIS. It took Boeing six years from 747-8 launch to EIS. The 777X will be over seven years from launch to EIS. Those were all derivatives of existing frames. Boeing's last all-new frame took over seven years from launch to EIS rather than the planned four (and that was with a lot of work already done via the Sonic Cruiser).

I think you're both overly optimistic on how long it will take.

But, if there is an internal go ahead this year (which may even already have happened in 2019, speculatively), EIS in 2027 is possible don't you agree? And a lot of work is already done for the NMA ;)
A new generation of engines will be the biggest challenge IMO.
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chiad
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:25 pm

frigatebird wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
What I understand is a launch in 2022-2025 for an EIS in 2027.

It is also doable ...
I agree with RJMAZ :thumbsup:


It took Boeing nearly six years from MAX launch to EIS. It took Boeing six years from 747-8 launch to EIS. The 777X will be over seven years from launch to EIS. Those were all derivatives of existing frames. Boeing's last all-new frame took over seven years from launch to EIS rather than the planned four (and that was with a lot of work already done via the Sonic Cruiser).

I think you're both overly optimistic on how long it will take.

But, if there is an internal go ahead this year (which may even already have happened in 2019, speculatively), EIS in 2027 is possible don't you agree? And a lot of work is already done for the NMA ;)
A new generation of engines will be the biggest challenge IMO.


So .. launch of a $15 Billion program without any launch orders?
I dont get the impression that any of the airlines or suppliers are aware of any impending launch. No news about any nextgen engine which, IMO, is crucial.
Maybe tight lips?
And all the while ... there's a flood of orders in their hundreds to the competition.
 
Mightyflyer86
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
And I'm waiting for a tuna sandwich from Burger King.

An NSA with 757 specs (range and capacity at least) alongside a 767NG combo and there you have it. NMA would've been great if it weren't for the max fiasco (and more).


Boeing was working on a clean sheet 737 design but it got pushed because of the 787 fiasco and now the NMA got pushed because of the MAX fiasco. Boeing keeps pushing projects because of self inflicted wounds, hopefully they get their sh** in order at some point while BGS and BDS keep the cash flowing.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:46 pm

chiad wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It took Boeing nearly six years from MAX launch to EIS. It took Boeing six years from 747-8 launch to EIS. The 777X will be over seven years from launch to EIS. Those were all derivatives of existing frames. Boeing's last all-new frame took over seven years from launch to EIS rather than the planned four (and that was with a lot of work already done via the Sonic Cruiser).

I think you're both overly optimistic on how long it will take.

But, if there is an internal go ahead this year (which may even already have happened in 2019, speculatively), EIS in 2027 is possible don't you agree? And a lot of work is already done for the NMA ;)
A new generation of engines will be the biggest challenge IMO.


So .. launch of a $15 Billion program without any launch orders?
I dont get the impression that any of the airlines or suppliers are aware of any impending launch. No news about any nextgen engine which, IMO, is crucial.
Maybe tight lips?
And all the while ... there's a flood of orders in their hundreds to the competition.

The A320neo program didn't have firm orders at launch either. Look how that turned out.
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Lufthansa
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:48 pm

reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. This will be quite the windfall for whoever gets the contract. The 757 with the GTF seems to have traction except for cost and all that was unofficial chat.

Grabbing popcorn.....waiting....


ahh Yes it can. The 321XLR can fly further, the tooling is gone for the 757 and it would be a lot heavier. If that mindset would have worked
Boeing would have never succeeded with the 707, McD would be still pumping out some warmed over version of the MD-80 n(ironically enough
wouldn't have suffered from the MAX engine problem) and airbus wouldn't have put europe's builders seriously on the map the the A320.

The orders coming in speak for themselves. The A321XLR has already carved itself out a big chunk of the smaller longer haul market.
Every 100 more orders erodes the business case for Boeing's investment. Their only real option is re engine the 767-300 fast and cheap,
and sell the thing cheap.
 
Mightyflyer86
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:01 pm

frigatebird wrote:
chiad wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But, if there is an internal go ahead this year (which may even already have happened in 2019, speculatively), EIS in 2027 is possible don't you agree? And a lot of work is already done for the NMA ;)
A new generation of engines will be the biggest challenge IMO.


So .. launch of a $15 Billion program without any launch orders?
I dont get the impression that any of the airlines or suppliers are aware of any impending launch. No news about any nextgen engine which, IMO, is crucial.
Maybe tight lips?
And all the while ... there's a flood of orders in their hundreds to the competition.

The A320neo program didn't have firm orders at launch either. Look how that turned out.


How many competitors did the A320neo have at launch?
How big was the A320neo market at launch compared to the potential NMA market?
Are you are suggesting that Boeing commits 10+ billion dollars for a program that has a small market (not sure if we should call it a niche) and that already has a competitor (A321XLR) who can put pressure on price?
Last edited by Mightyflyer86 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:01 pm

frigatebird wrote:
chiad wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But, if there is an internal go ahead this year (which may even already have happened in 2019, speculatively), EIS in 2027 is possible don't you agree? And a lot of work is already done for the NMA ;)
A new generation of engines will be the biggest challenge IMO.


So .. launch of a $15 Billion program without any launch orders?
I dont get the impression that any of the airlines or suppliers are aware of any impending launch. No news about any nextgen engine which, IMO, is crucial.
Maybe tight lips?
And all the while ... there's a flood of orders in their hundreds to the competition.

The A320neo program didn't have firm orders at launch either. Look how that turned out.

The A320neo is a derivative of the A320Family (called A320ceo after the fact); it's not a brand new design.
A portion of then-current order holders were expected (and maybe invited as well) to switch to the new derivative.
The A320neo Program was launched on December 1st, 2010; first order came April 27th, 2011 (AerCap). It was already being negociated when the Program was launched, and Airbus surely knew it was almost a done deal.

Launching a whole new program with no firm orders is much riskier.
 
Prost
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:06 pm

I wish there was a re-winged/re-engined A310. I know, not that simple.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Prost wrote:
I wish there was a re-winged/re-engined A310. I know, not that simple.

Imagine re-engined DC-3 (with radial Diesels) and composite wing; it'd be a winner, they'd sell them by the tens of thousands ;)
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:36 pm

Mightyflyer86 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
chiad wrote:

So .. launch of a $15 Billion program without any launch orders?
I dont get the impression that any of the airlines or suppliers are aware of any impending launch. No news about any nextgen engine which, IMO, is crucial.
Maybe tight lips?
And all the while ... there's a flood of orders in their hundreds to the competition.

The A320neo program didn't have firm orders at launch either. Look how that turned out.


How many competitors did the A320neo have at launch?
How big was the A320neo market at launch compared to the potential NMA market?
Are you are suggesting that Boeing commits 10+ billion dollars for a program that has a small market (not sure if we should call it a niche) and that already has a competitor (A321XLR) who can put pressure on price?

I'm talking about a new narrowbody, a 737 replacement. As I mentioned earlier:
frigatebird wrote:
I don't think the next Boeing aircraft will be a twin aisle NMA. DL will have to look for other 767 replacement possibilities.
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:39 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
The A320neo Program was launched on December 1st, 2010; first order came April 27th, 2011 (AerCap). It was already being negociated when the Program was launched, and Airbus surely knew it was almost a done deal.


Airbus actually booked an order for 30 A320neo from Virgin America on 29th December 2010. That order is now listed by Airbus as for Alaska Airlines following their takeover of Virgin. The deal was announced in January 2011, but the order was booked as unidentified in December 2010 (IIRC).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... ZV20110117

WayexTDI wrote:
Launching a whole new program with no firm orders is much riskier.


Just a bit! :wink2:

The idea it could be kept "secret" as well is just fantasy.
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morrisond
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:48 pm

scbriml wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
The A320neo Program was launched on December 1st, 2010; first order came April 27th, 2011 (AerCap). It was already being negociated when the Program was launched, and Airbus surely knew it was almost a done deal.


Airbus actually booked an order for 30 A320neo from Virgin America on 29th December 2010. That order is now listed by Airbus as for Alaska Airlines following their takeover of Virgin. The deal was announced in January 2011, but the order was booked as unidentified in December 2010 (IIRC).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... ZV20110117

WayexTDI wrote:
Launching a whole new program with no firm orders is much riskier.


Just a bit! :wink2:

The idea it could be kept "secret" as well is just fantasy.


You all know Boeing has made statements previously that they have(maybe had after diverting some to the MAX work) over 1,000 engineers working on defining and engineering of there next program, so that at launch it would be much further along than previous programs.

Does that mean I think it will deliver in 2025 at this point? No of course not but late 2026/early 2027 is entirely possible.

If it is the tight light 7W concept - they have been working on that for a decade by now and should understand it pretty well at this point as it was one of the possible rumored configurations of the 2010 NSA.

And if it is a combined NMA/NSA Common fuselage program it won't be that big of a deal to switch to the smaller winged variant first. Although I still think the larger variant is first as it makes more sense to not cannabilize MAX - even if MAX never gets to 60 or 70 per month and they just cede Market share to Airbus produce MAX at 40-50 per month for the next decade and focus on 2030 NSA.
 
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keesje
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:12 pm

morrisond wrote:
You all know Boeing has made statements previously that they have(maybe had after diverting some to the MAX work) over 1,000 engineers working on defining and engineering of there next program, so that at launch it would be much further along than previous programs.


1,000 Engineers working on NMA usually means they booked some hours on questions on the NMA business case. Not designing..

morrisond wrote:
Does that mean I think it will deliver in 2025 at this point? No of course not but late 2026/early 2027 is entirely possible.


Based on recent projects, a conservative approach seems a good idea. A lesson learned is you don't want to rush these things.

morrisond wrote:
If it is the tight light 7W concept - they have been working on that for a decade by now and should understand it pretty well at this point as it was one of the possible rumored configurations of the 2010 NSA.


Make that 2 decades. https://patents.google.com/patent/US6834833B2/en Some say that what is good, comes fast..
I feel the next Boeing will be single aisle, not twin aisle. Too heavy & expensive for <250 seats <3000NM.

morrisond wrote:
And if it is a combined NMA/NSA Common fuselage program it won't be that big of a deal to switch to the smaller winged variant first. Although I still think the larger variant is first as it makes more sense to not cannabilize MAX - even if MAX never gets to 60 or 70 per month and they just cede Market share to Airbus produce MAX at 40-50 per month for the next decade and focus on 2030 NSA.


I think producing MAX for the next 10 years is possible, but selling it with a healthy margin might be a challenge.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:23 pm

morrisond wrote:
You all know Boeing has made statements previously that they have(maybe had after diverting some to the MAX work) over 1,000 engineers working on defining and engineering of there next program, so that at launch it would be much further along than previous programs.

I don't think I've seen Boeing itself report that.

Jon Ostrower reported almost exactly one year ago (Jan 2019):

More than 1,000 people inside Boeing are now working on the design of its New Mid-Market Airplane (NMA). The program is accelerating toward an internal launch around the end of the first quarter, according to several people familiar with the company’s planning.

In late 2018, staff at Boeing noticed a change in the wind. Manufacturing engineers were being reassigned in large groups, pulled from other programs to begin training on digital tools to join the rapidly-firming effort to design a new small twin-aisle airliner. They even noted the use of a new interim bookkeeping name — the 7K7 — to describe the airplane. (It is widely expected to become the 797)

Ref: https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... -decision/

Also https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... tails.html tells us of several Boeing employees who have updated their LinkedIn profiles to include NMA/797 work in the same time frame.

Clearly one year ago the MAX tragedy was only beginning to unfold, but a lot of these people are design and manufacturing specialists and it's not clear how they could be reassigned in a way that would help the MAX.

I suppose one could go back to LinkedIn and see if the people named in the article above have updated their profiles to indicate they are no longer working on NMA/797 but I'll leave that for someone else.

I would think if we had a "shelving" of the early NMA development work we'd have heard about that since the media has shown that they are ready to report any dirt they can get on Boeing.

So, overall, my best guess is that a lot of design and manufacturing talent is still working on was shopped around as the NMA, but that doesn't mean the program could not be retargeted to being more of a NSA. Pretty much all the decision makers in the reporting chain have changed over the last year or so, and their take on what to do next could be different than their predecessors.

On our last such thread I made my odds of NMA 45%, do nothing 45%, NSA 10% and I haven't seen anything yet that would change my thinking.

I will observe again how DL saying they are interested in the NMA concept seems to trigger lots of discussion about how DL really isn't interested in NMA but is interested in something else.

It might be interesting if we focus on why they are saying what they are saying while having a much fuller view of the competitive landscape than any of us do, but I guess it's more fun to head off on speculative tangents.
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flyabr
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:34 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

If it were true Ed Bastian would have rushed to the A321neo derivatives. It's just that the NMA has nothing to do with the A321neo derivatives in terms of the number of passengers ...

A. Net still hasn't understood :roll:


You do know that Delta has A321neo on order?


I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's those supposed to kill the NMA ...

Did Bastian do it?


Not yet, but would not at all be surprised if some of those "plain" NEOs are switched to LRs or XLRs!
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:45 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Prost wrote:
I wish there was a re-winged/re-engined A310. I know, not that simple.

Imagine re-engined DC-3 (with radial Diesels) and composite wing; it'd be a winner, they'd sell them by the tens of thousands ;)


It's only 5 years older than today's A320 :sarcastic:

Using this logic I should be dating 15 year olds...
Last edited by 1989worstyear on Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:45 pm

morrisond wrote:
scbriml wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
The A320neo Program was launched on December 1st, 2010; first order came April 27th, 2011 (AerCap). It was already being negociated when the Program was launched, and Airbus surely knew it was almost a done deal.


Airbus actually booked an order for 30 A320neo from Virgin America on 29th December 2010. That order is now listed by Airbus as for Alaska Airlines following their takeover of Virgin. The deal was announced in January 2011, but the order was booked as unidentified in December 2010 (IIRC).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... ZV20110117

WayexTDI wrote:
Launching a whole new program with no firm orders is much riskier.


Just a bit! :wink2:

The idea it could be kept "secret" as well is just fantasy.


You all know Boeing has made statements previously that they have(maybe had after diverting some to the MAX work) over 1,000 engineers working on defining and engineering of there next program, so that at launch it would be much further along than previous programs.

Does that mean I think it will deliver in 2025 at this point? No of course not but late 2026/early 2027 is entirely possible.

If it is the tight light 7W concept - they have been working on that for a decade by now and should understand it pretty well at this point as it was one of the possible rumored configurations of the 2010 NSA.

And if it is a combined NMA/NSA Common fuselage program it won't be that big of a deal to switch to the smaller winged variant first. Although I still think the larger variant is first as it makes more sense to not cannabilize MAX - even if MAX never gets to 60 or 70 per month and they just cede Market share to Airbus produce MAX at 40-50 per month for the next decade and focus on 2030 NSA.

And we all know that Boeing have said they were about to launch it last year, the year before, etc...

Yes, (some) people within Boeing are in the know; and those won't speak (NDA...).
Yes, I'm sure most airlines CEOs have been briefed by Boeing as to what their next aircraft will be.
But, yes, airlines are tired of waiting on that (so far) mythical next game-changing aircraft from Boeing; UA just did that and ordered 50 A321XLR.

So, as it stands right now, the NSA/NMA/whatever-you-want-to-call-it remains is but a pipe dream for most people; and it will remain so until Boeing offers it for sale.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:45 pm

Here we go again.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:48 pm

AS desperately wants NSA/NMA/whatever; they need 757 payload and better than 757 range in whatever is developed, and very low operating costs. Absent anything new from Boeing in the next month, there's a possibility of a future fleet replacement order from them in mid to late February after the BOD meets.
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jagraham
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:55 pm

Strato2 wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. ....


FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.


Not for TATL ranges. The XLR does a decent job (several including me said the A321LR was not a good 757 TATL replacement and the market has shown that to be the case), but outside of NY-LON ranges it is still gasping. Pax or cargo, but not both. And increasing the MTOW from 86t to 101t, just under 20%, takes away 10% of the fuel savings. And it's slower. But the XLR is a credible TATL aircraft for which BA has no competitor. As evidenced by the AA and UA orders. But watch AA and UA, their 757s will not disappear completely; about 20 will remain with each airline for the time being.
 
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TheZ
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:55 pm

How Boeing manages to get this project going while dealing with still-increasing MAX fallout will be very interesting. Who knows how big a hole they'll have dug by the time this is all over. If they overcome all this and the NMA is successful, it will be an incredible turnaround.
If you have to say "pun intended," it's not a good enough pun.
 
jagraham
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:57 pm

flyabr wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

You do know that Delta has A321neo on order?


I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's those supposed to kill the NMA ...

Did Bastian do it?


Not yet, but would not at all be surprised if some of those "plain" NEOs are switched to LRs or XLRs!


Some NEOs will probably become XLRs (the LR has been eclipsed) at DL. But DL has already made it clear that its core TATL flying will be widebodies for the foreseeable future.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:09 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
And we all know that Boeing have said they were about to launch it last year, the year before, etc...

Yes, (some) people within Boeing are in the know; and those won't speak (NDA...).
Yes, I'm sure most airlines CEOs have been briefed by Boeing as to what their next aircraft will be.
But, yes, airlines are tired of waiting on that (so far) mythical next game-changing aircraft from Boeing; UA just did that and ordered 50 A321XLR.

So, as it stands right now, the NSA/NMA/whatever-you-want-to-call-it remains is but a pipe dream for most people; and it will remain so until Boeing offers it for sale.

Yes, it's still in pipe dream state, one that Boeing has shown to airlines and has assigned staff to work on (I doubt the LinkedIn updates are fake news) but still one that can be halted at any point in time should Boeing choose to do so.

All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.

The problem is that Boeing's dwadling has made it even harder to get the sales volume needed to close a business case.

jagraham wrote:
But DL has already made it clear that its core TATL flying will be widebodies for the foreseeable future.

As mentioned above DL has a high pilot/crew pay rate.

It could be that legacies with higher wages need NMA capacity to make their business cases close whereas LCCs and "regionals" can get by with less expensive narrow bodies.

This math too hurts the NMA business case, since most of the airline growth is in the LCC space.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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astuteman
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:39 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
AS desperately wants NSA/NMA/whatever; they need 757 payload and better than 757 range in whatever is developed, and very low operating costs. Absent anything new from Boeing in the next month, there's a possibility of a future fleet replacement order from them in mid to late February after the BOD meets.


for what its worth, that description could be tailor-made for the A321XLR.

It will take the same 20 tonne payload as a 757-200 some 500Nm further, even without the additional ACT, at a dramatically lower cost.
4 500Nm on 36,400l (29 tonnes) for the XLR sans ACT
4 000Nm on 42,600l (34.25 tonnes) for the 757-200

The only way that it falls slightly short of the 752 is in cabin length, being about 2 1/2 m shorter (unless you fancy a meaningless foray into the field performance thing)

Rgds
 
747megatop
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:16 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
There is no law that states an aircraft must be publicly launched before development can start. Boeing could launch the aircraft on the same day as the first flight if they wanted to. Boeing of course wouldn't do that as keeping things secret for that long puts up the price significantly. On the day the 797 is launched I expect the design work to be near complete, they will already be cutting metal for the landing gear and the engines would be getting assembled.

Well, why would they do up front work? They would need formal board approval to launch the type and offer it to the market. Only then do they do the bulk of the "hard" development & design work. Other wise they would have done design/development work & would be cutting metal for something the market may not order/want.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
I will observe again how DL saying they are interested in the NMA concept seems to trigger lots of discussion about how DL really isn't interested in NMA but is interested in something else.


For my part, it's just a tease of the reverse situation, where someone like Southwest "looks at" the A320. The immediate reaction is "They're just after better pricing from Boeing." I did add a :wink2: to my post to indicate I wasn't serious.

If Boeing does ever launch NMA, I fully understand why DL would be interested. But, I can also see why LD would be interested in the A321XLR as well. The two are not mutually exclusive.

All that said, I don't share the optimism of some posters that NMA will be launched and EIS in a short timeframe for an all-new airliner.

Revelation wrote:
All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.


While AA and UA certainly have, AFAIK DL currently doesn't have XLRs on order (but of course would have the option to convert some of their existing A321neo order if needed). But agreed re A321XLR and NMA combo (as above).

astuteman wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
AS desperately wants NSA/NMA/whatever; they need 757 payload and better than 757 range in whatever is developed, and very low operating costs. Absent anything new from Boeing in the next month, there's a possibility of a future fleet replacement order from them in mid to late February after the BOD meets.


for what its worth, that description could be tailor-made for the A321XLR.

It will take the same 20 tonne payload as a 757-200 some 500Nm further, even without the additional ACT, at a dramatically lower cost.
4 500Nm on 36,400l (29 tonnes) for the XLR sans ACT
4 000Nm on 42,600l (34.25 tonnes) for the 757-200

The only way that it falls slightly short of the 752 is in cabin length, being about 2 1/2 m shorter (unless you fancy a meaningless foray into the field performance thing)

Rgds


Sacrilege! AS is "Proudly all Boeing". Oh wait...
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HIA350
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:30 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
Airbus did a great job in attacking the NMA business case with the A321XLR. Great timing also.



correct, and now nobody is waiting for the NMA anymore, the business case is dead!


The A321neo cannot be a killer since the NMA is a future killer of A330- / 300 / 800neo...

The 797 office is still officially open!



and you assume airbus won't do anything about it right?
 
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par13del
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:34 pm

I thought Boeing stated that they were not looking for new generation engines for the NMA but modified versions of engines already in production, part of the no new moon shot mantra.

As for whether NMA or NSA, due to the current MAX issue, if Boeing were to announce a new NSA in 2020, how much of the existing MAX backlog would be wiped out in an instant? The 400+ a/c sitting down will take almost 1 year to be delivered allowing production restart to start with a very low number, the longer the current backlog is extended into the future, the closer it get's to the NSA EIS, so I am not sure Boeing would want to do that. However, if they get launch AID from the Feds because of the MAX issue then the sky is the limit, they may do another 757 / 767 and launch both at the same time.
 
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litz
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:48 pm

Delta will go with whichever model/manufacturer fits the mission and has the cheapest price. That's called business.

The last several orders, Airbus has won out. Boeing may well (or may not) win on the NMA ...

There's been some speculation DL may launch the NMA, and might get a goodly discount by doing so ... and that might swing that contract Boeing's way.

We'll all just have to wait and see.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:17 pm

flyabr wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

You do know that Delta has A321neo on order?


I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's those supposed to kill the NMA ...

Did Bastian do it?


Not yet, but would not at all be surprised if some of those "plain" NEOs are switched to LRs or XLRs!


Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)
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Do it! "...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:25 pm

HIA350 wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:


correct, and now nobody is waiting for the NMA anymore, the business case is dead!


The A321neo cannot be a killer since the NMA is a future killer of A330- / 300 / 800neo...

The 797 office is still officially open!



and you assume airbus won't do anything about it right?


Airbus will not be able to answer immediately because if Boeing ever launches the NMA it would be after a long and bitter study to lower production costs dradistically.

Unless Airbus works there too ...
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:34 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.
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Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
What I understand is a launch in 2022-2025 for an EIS in 2027.

It is also doable ...
I agree with RJMAZ :thumbsup:


It took Boeing nearly six years from MAX launch to EIS. It took Boeing six years from 747-8 launch to EIS. The 777X will be over seven years from launch to EIS. Those were all derivatives of existing frames. Boeing's last all-new frame took over seven years from launch to EIS rather than the planned four (and that was with a lot of work already done via the Sonic Cruiser).

I think you're both overly optimistic on how long it will take.


That's what Boeing said. I'm just reminded.

There is certainly some 3D CATIA models since 2014 in gestation out there...
Last edited by Checklist787 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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