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Mightyflyer86
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:50 pm

Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:43 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. This will be quite the windfall for whoever gets the contract. The 757 with the GTF seems to have traction except for cost and all that was unofficial chat.

Grabbing popcorn.....waiting....


ahh Yes it can. The 321XLR can fly further, the tooling is gone for the 757 and it would be a lot heavier. If that mindset would have worked
Boeing would have never succeeded with the 707, McD would be still pumping out some warmed over version of the MD-80 n(ironically enough
wouldn't have suffered from the MAX engine problem) and airbus wouldn't have put europe's builders seriously on the map the the A320.

The orders coming in speak for themselves. The A321XLR has already carved itself out a big chunk of the smaller longer haul market.
Every 100 more orders erodes the business case for Boeing's investment. Their only real option is re engine the 767-300 fast and cheap,
and sell the thing cheap.



People still don't understand why the 757 was created, when it was created and why it was killed.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


I'm not convinced.

United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?

I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers (or more passengers only) ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This "no go" is very significant
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:14 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not convinced.


So if an airline has 787-8s on order, then decides to switch to 787-10s, Boeing will just say "OK, no problem."? Of course the airline is going to have to pay the difference in price for switching to a more expensive model. Sometimes common sense needs to be applied.

Checklist787 wrote:
United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?


Any airline that switches an order from a smaller model to a larger one will pay more. Switching back to the smaller model would likely have not incurred additional costs, but UA also ordered more frames both times.

Do you think Boeing let UA switch from 737-9s to 737-10s for free? :shakehead:

Checklist787 wrote:
I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This no go is very significant


There is no "no go" until all 100 A321neos are delivered.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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keesje
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:21 pm

Delta can just wait and see e.g. how AA from MIA and United from Houston expand their South America markets (destinations, frequencies) with their XLR's. While Delta retire their 30 yr old 757s and wait for an NMA.. probably not.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not convinced.


So if an airline has 787-8s on order, then decides to switch to 787-10s, Boeing will just say "OK, no problem."? Of course the airline is going to have to pay the difference in price for switching to a more expensive model. Sometimes common sense needs to be applied.

Checklist787 wrote:
United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?


Any airline that switches an order from a smaller model to a larger one will pay more. Switching back to the smaller model would likely have not incurred additional costs, but UA also ordered more frames both times.

Do you think Boeing let UA switch from 737-9s to 737-10s for free? :shakehead:

Checklist787 wrote:
I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This no go is very significant


There is no "no go" until all 100 A321neos are delivered.


The A321neo's / derivatives are the same size. Why pay more? But you are right for the different models.

Anyway if Ed Bastian wanted it he would have switched... :)
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Delta can just wait and see e.g. how AA from MIA and United from Houston expand their South America markets (destinations, frequencies) with their XLR's. While Delta retire their 30 yr old 757s and wait for an NMA.. probably not.


They will not replace the 757's but the 767's...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
StTim
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:40 pm

The latest news is that Beoing are looking to reign back on Capex and potentially R&D due to the cash impact of the MAX fiasco. They are hardly likely to launch a new program at the moment.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:57 pm

B757Forever wrote:
SoEWR wrote:
Anybody know why Delta hasn’t ordered a Boeing plane in a long time. It seems like all of their new buys have been Airbus planes.

Delta just recently received the last of a 130 aircraft order for 737-900ER aircraft. It hasn't been that long.


Delta orders from Airbus include 477 single-aisle jets and 60 dual-aisle jets
A220-100 45
A220-300 50
A321ceo 127
A321neo 100
A330-900 35
A350 25

Delta has only ordered 145 Boeing jets since 9/11

10 737-900ER 14. Mar. 2017 CF
20 737-900ER 16. Dec. 2015 CF
100 737-900ER 24. Aug. 2011 CF
------------- September 26, 2008 shareholder approve Delta & Northwest merger
2 777-200LR 31. Jul. 2008 GE
2 777-200LR 12. Dec. 2007 GE
1 777-200LR 29. Jun. 2007 GE
10 737-800 31. Dec. 2006 CF
----
1 767-300ER 19. Sep. 2000 GE
1 737-800 12. Apr. 2000 CF
1 737-800 8. Mar. 2000 CF
1 737-800 15. Feb. 2000 CF
1 737-800 3. Jan. 2000 CF
2 737-800 15. Dec. 1999 CF
1 757-200 15. Dec. 1999 PW
1 737-800 30. Nov. 1999 CF
1 757-200 30. Nov. 1999 PW
18 737-800 30. Sep. 1999 CF
6 737-800 17. Jun. 1999 CF
1 757-200 17. Jun. 1999 PW
6 767-300ER 17. Jun. 1999 GE
1 767-300ER 1. Apr. 1999 GE
30 737-800 22. Dec. 1998 CF
14 757-200 22. Dec. 1998 PW
3 767-300ER 22. Dec. 1998 GE
1 777-200LR 22. Dec. 1998 GE
1 737-800 19. May. 1998 CF
4 757-200 19. May. 1998 PW
1 767-300ER 19. May. 1998 GE
2 777-200ER 27. Mar. 1998 RR
6 777-200ER 13. Nov. 1997 RR
4 777-200LR 13. Nov. 1997 GE
10 737-700 10. Jun. 1997 CF
60 737-800 10. Jun. 1997 CF
5 757-200 10. Jun. 1997 PW
10 767-300ER 10. Jun. 1997 GE
21 767-400ER 10. Jun. 1997 GE
12 767-300ER 31. Jan. 1996 PW
-----
Delta signs an exclusive contract with Boeing. All such contracts are voided by the US government as a pre-condition of Boeing acquiring McDonnell Douglas.
-----
2 757-200 31. Dec. 1991 PW
4 757-200 19. Dec. 1991 PW
4 757-200 13. Jun. 1991 PW
2 767-300ER 1. Jun. 1991 PW
9 757-200 20. Dec. 1990 PW
4 767-300 20. Dec. 1990 PW
7 767-300ER 20. Dec. 1990 PW
1 767-300 9. Nov. 1990 GE
1 767-300ER 9. Nov. 1990 PW
5 737-300 14. Nov. 1989 CF
11 757-200 14. Nov. 1989 PW
6 767-300 14. Nov. 1989 GE
3 767-300ER 14. Nov. 1989 PW
2 767-300 22. Sep. 1988 GE
6 767-300ER 22. Sep. 1988 PW
6 767-300 24. Apr. 1987 GE
6 737-200 2. Oct. 1985 PW
4 767-300 27. Feb. 1985 GE
5 767-300 21. Feb. 1984 GE
33 737-200 21. Dec. 1982 PW
60 757-200 12. Nov. 1980 PW
5 727-200 15. Nov. 1978 PW
15 767-200 15. Nov. 1978 GE
24 727-200 7. Feb. 1977 PW
4 727-200 10. Nov. 1976 PW
21 727-200 11. May. 1976 PW
4 727-200 12. Jun. 1975 PW
19 727-200 17. Oct. 1974 PW
3 727-200 25. Feb. 1974 PW
8 727-200 30. May. 1973 PW
14 727-200 21. Sep. 1972 PW
14 727-200 29. Mar. 1972 PW
2 747-100 21. Jun. 1968 PW
3 747-100 26. Jun. 1967 PW
688
Last edited by PacoMartin on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
And we all know that Boeing have said they were about to launch it last year, the year before, etc...

Yes, (some) people within Boeing are in the know; and those won't speak (NDA...).
Yes, I'm sure most airlines CEOs have been briefed by Boeing as to what their next aircraft will be.
But, yes, airlines are tired of waiting on that (so far) mythical next game-changing aircraft from Boeing; UA just did that and ordered 50 A321XLR.

So, as it stands right now, the NSA/NMA/whatever-you-want-to-call-it remains is but a pipe dream for most people; and it will remain so until Boeing offers it for sale.

Yes, it's still in pipe dream state, one that Boeing has shown to airlines and has assigned staff to work on (I doubt the LinkedIn updates are fake news) but still one that can be halted at any point in time should Boeing choose to do so.

All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.

The problem is that Boeing's dwadling has made it even harder to get the sales volume needed to close a business case.

Boeing has shown it to airlines... and those airlines have not ordered it, have pushed Boeing to launch it so they could (eventually) order it, and in the end ordered the A321XLR.
What does that tell you?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:04 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
flyabr wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

I'm talking about "A321neo derivatives" , LR's and XLR's those supposed to kill the NMA ...

Did Bastian do it?


Not yet, but would not at all be surprised if some of those "plain" NEOs are switched to LRs or XLRs!


Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)

Is DL supposed to get all those A321neos in the next few months? No.
So, the A321neo and the A321XLR varying only by a few internal details, those details can be hammered out when it's time to order them; and DL will make the decision at the point to continue with the A321neo or to switch to the A321XLR. There's plenty of time.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:09 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


I'm not convinced.

United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?

I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers (or more passengers only) ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This "no go" is very significant

Unlike other CEOs and airlines, Ed Bastian and DL are not playing the "I'm first to have this new plane variant" race (even if they stated they wanted to be the launch customer for the NMA, they didn't state they wanted to be the launch operator); so, DL will evaluate the need to order/convert A321XLRs in due time.
This "no go" is absolutely insignificant.

By the way, no such thing as an A321neoXLR; all A321XLRs are neo-based.
 
Austin787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:17 pm

DL could convert some of its A321NEO on order to A321XLR. Maybe DL is just mentioning interest in a hypothetical Boeing NMA to get better price on A321XLR.
 
HunterATL
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:19 pm

One point to consider is that Delta believes the next round of pilot contracts at the US3 will make narrowbody aircraft across the Atlantic unprofitable. When asked about the A321XLR at its investor day, Delta stated that it believed only a modern, medium-range widebody with significant fuel economy could profitably serve secondary markets in Europe after the expected increase in pilot rates. DL stated that this concern has led it not to order the A321XLR, and that its present cost structure and profitability allowed it to take more time in making a decision.

I have no idea what rates the unions have proposed to AA, UA, or DL for this aircraft as part of future contracts or as amendments to present contracts, but DL management is clearly concerned.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:22 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not convinced.


So if an airline has 787-8s on order, then decides to switch to 787-10s, Boeing will just say "OK, no problem."? Of course the airline is going to have to pay the difference in price for switching to a more expensive model. Sometimes common sense needs to be applied.

Checklist787 wrote:
United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?


Any airline that switches an order from a smaller model to a larger one will pay more. Switching back to the smaller model would likely have not incurred additional costs, but UA also ordered more frames both times.

Do you think Boeing let UA switch from 737-9s to 737-10s for free? :shakehead:

Checklist787 wrote:
I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This no go is very significant


There is no "no go" until all 100 A321neos are delivered.


The A321neo's / derivatives are the same size. Why pay more? But you are right for the different models.

Anyway if Ed Bastian wanted it he would have switched... :)

The Mercedes-AMG S 63 uses the same chassis as the S 560 and an engine based on that of the S 560, yet cost 50% more ($151,600 vs $104,450). Why would someone pay more???
Simple: similarly to the AMG S 63 vs MB S 560, the A321neo and the A321XLR are different variants of the same base vehicle.

The A321XLR has more capabilities and more systems; all this comes at a cost, which is borne by the customer.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:36 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
And we all know that Boeing have said they were about to launch it last year, the year before, etc...

Yes, (some) people within Boeing are in the know; and those won't speak (NDA...).
Yes, I'm sure most airlines CEOs have been briefed by Boeing as to what their next aircraft will be.
But, yes, airlines are tired of waiting on that (so far) mythical next game-changing aircraft from Boeing; UA just did that and ordered 50 A321XLR.

So, as it stands right now, the NSA/NMA/whatever-you-want-to-call-it remains is but a pipe dream for most people; and it will remain so until Boeing offers it for sale.

Yes, it's still in pipe dream state, one that Boeing has shown to airlines and has assigned staff to work on (I doubt the LinkedIn updates are fake news) but still one that can be halted at any point in time should Boeing choose to do so.

All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.

The problem is that Boeing's dwadling has made it even harder to get the sales volume needed to close a business case.

Boeing has shown it to airlines... and those airlines have not ordered it, have pushed Boeing to launch it so they could (eventually) order it, and in the end ordered the A321XLR.
What does that tell you?

tht tells me Boeing wasn't prepared to commit as of yet. Why? Who Knows that doesn't work at Boeing? They could be still working on their FBW tech, Waiting for New Engines to be developed, Most anything. they built the KC-46 in the men time and it got a damn LOT of upgrades over the 767 it was based on and they built the P-8A which got a damn lot of upgrades over the 737-700/800 it was based on. So they haven't been sitting Idle. What Boeing Commercial is really doing? We'd all like to know!
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:41 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yes, it's still in pipe dream state, one that Boeing has shown to airlines and has assigned staff to work on (I doubt the LinkedIn updates are fake news) but still one that can be halted at any point in time should Boeing choose to do so.

All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.

The problem is that Boeing's dwadling has made it even harder to get the sales volume needed to close a business case.

Boeing has shown it to airlines... and those airlines have not ordered it, have pushed Boeing to launch it so they could (eventually) order it, and in the end ordered the A321XLR.
What does that tell you?

tht tells me Boeing wasn't prepared to commit as of yet. Why? Who Knows that doesn't work at Boeing? They could be still working on their FBW tech, Waiting for New Engines to be developed, Most anything. they built the KC-46 in the men time and it got a damn LOT of upgrades over the 767 it was based on and they built the P-8A which got a damn lot of upgrades over the 737-700/800 it was based on. So they haven't been sitting Idle. What Boeing Commercial is really doing? We'd all like to know!

Exactly, Boeing isn't prepare to commit as of yet. Cause the business case is not cut-and-dry as some on here are saying.
If it was a no brainer, then Boeing would have offered it for sale years ago.

Boeing is in the business to make money. If they have a product that's a slam dunk, that will outsell the competition and print cash like crazy, you can be sure they will put it on the market.
The fact they haven't means it's no slam dunk.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:42 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
The A321neo's / derivatives are the same size. Why pay more?


What has size got to do with it? The A321XLR is significantly more capable than the base A321neo. Of course Airbus is going to charge more for it. Look at the list price difference between a 777-200ER and a 777-200LR (they're both the same size) - the LR is a lot more expensive because it's a significantly more capable frame.

It's pretty basic stuff, really.

strfyr51 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
Yawn ...
He's been saying that for months .. if not years.
I'm sure DL !! place and order eventually ... when Boeing launches it ... eventually.

It's just a negotiating tactic - he's after better pricing on A321XLRs. After all, a.net experts have told us DL will never order another Boeing! :wink2:


A*net Experts? Are you kidding? And they know HOW? Are they at Delta? Or Boeing? YGBSM! That's just "Airbus Fanboy" wishful thinking!
You don't have the FIRST credible reference to back up your statement! NO NAMES! Nothing!! Boeing will be back!
They'll Field the MNA and it will be ordered like HOTCAKES! and just like always? Airbus will be copying and trying o one up Boeing as always.
You only HOPE Boeing stumbles again, Which I seriously doubt! what they're doing now? What they should have always been doing!
And we'll see them do more and Be even Better than they were. And they were head and shoulders better than Airbus!
In EVERY category other than Arrogance!! Airbus needs to make Hay because they'd better make hay while they can. The A321 is a good airplane as was the A320 and the A319, And I made tons of money working with them. But they are not and Never were head and shoulders above any of the Boeings. NOT A ONE! They've managed to sell the A321 because Boeing quit producing the 757 which could have been re-engineered to outpace the A321 in any and every aspect as the A321 is a stretched A320 with fuel cans in the Cargo Pits. Nothing more. And they've gone as far as they can go with it as well. I've seen talk of the A322, and it's a damn near exact copy of the 757 with Airbus systems. Boeing has only to start building CFRP Wings like they're building for the 787 and a fuselage based on the 757 and the 767? And they'd have a couple of damn HOT airplanes They already have the digital flight control systems and have lots of transfer tech options from their 787,777 and Fighter Tech. Or they can go to other major Tech companies in the USA like Northrop-Grumman, Rockwell-Collins, Or Lockheed- Martin to partner with them. In any case? Airbus can't and won't beat them as long as they do not Beat themselves with a case of the "Stupids"..


Nice rant, but you seem to have missed one important thing from my post.

===> :wink2:

My statement was a joke. :wave:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:45 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Boeing has shown it to airlines... and those airlines have not ordered it, have pushed Boeing to launch it so they could (eventually) order it, and in the end ordered the A321XLR.
What does that tell you?

Pretty much what I already wrote above, I think if NMA gets offered DL and the other US3 will find room for it in their fleets even after ordering A321 because NMA is going to be in a different payload/range class than A321, the big problem (still) is whether or not Boeing thinks it can find enough sales to justify building it.
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strfyr51
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:55 pm

HunterATL wrote:
One point to consider is that Delta believes the next round of pilot contracts at the US3 will make narrowbody aircraft across the Atlantic unprofitable. When asked about the A321XLR at its investor day, Delta stated that it believed only a modern, medium-range widebody with significant fuel economy could profitably serve secondary markets in Europe after the expected increase in pilot rates. DL stated that this concern has led it not to order the A321XLR, and that its present cost structure and profitability allowed it to take more time in making a decision.

I have no idea what rates the unions have proposed to AA, UA, or DL for this aircraft as part of future contracts or as amendments to present contracts, but DL management is clearly concerned.
Boeing

Airbus built the A321 to try and supplant any 767 based airplane from Boeing, But? It's a narrow body and will always Be a Narrow body .
United may very well use the A321 to Latin America and to Near Europe (LHR.FRA etc.) But the big money will be in an airplane that has less range than the 787-8 and can and will replace the 787-8 on Medium range routes as the 787-8 has range to "Beat the Band" and may not be economical on shorter range international routes..
I would doubt the NMA will go Trans-Pacific as the 787-8 and -9 are doing but the 787-10 has not yet stretched it's legs to the fullest extent yet and it remains to be seen Just exactly what it's range maxes out to.. Boeing has been Cagey in this area and they're playing their cards pretty close to the vest as they'll have to if they intend to win back the trust of the FAA and EASA they squandered.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


It usually doesn’t cost anything to switch options from one type to another. Confirmed orders are another story, but for a customer like DL, I can’t see Airbus making them pay anything other than the difference in airframe price.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:02 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


It usually doesn’t cost anything to switch options from one type to another. Confirmed orders are another story, but for a customer like DL, I can’t see Airbus making them pay anything other than the difference in airframe price.


Of course, that's exactly what I would expect and what I said in a subsequent post - either OEM will charge any customer upgauging models the difference in (discounted) price. They're not giving away more capable planes for the price of the less capable model. Why would they?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


It usually doesn’t cost anything to switch options from one type to another. Confirmed orders are another story, but for a customer like DL, I can’t see Airbus making them pay anything other than the difference in airframe price.


Of course, that's exactly what I would expect and what I said in a subsequent post - either OEM will charge any customer upgauging models the difference in (discounted) price. They're not giving away more capable planes for the price of the less capable model. Why would they?



What I meant was that there would be no additional, underlying cost or fees to swap, other than the price difference. Obviously an A321XLR is more expensive than an A321NEO as the former is a more capable aircraft. Your initial posts didn’t specify you were referring solely to the price difference.
Last edited by EA CO AS on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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scbriml
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:02 am

EA CO AS wrote:
Your initial posts didn’t specify you were referring solely to the price difference.


Yeah, I tried the simplest approach first. Serves me right. :)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Lufthansa
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:07 am

wow, some ppl really get tribal on here.
So let me put a few facts down.
1- As we all know Boeing has to make sure it fixes its most important section of the market as a priority.
nothing can happen until the MAX mess is over.

2 - Is there a business case anymore? Despite some emotional posts the A321XXLR can do most transatlantic
routes. An order from Delta alone isn't going to be enough to make a business case and delta are well known
for driving a hard deal.

3 - the 757 cannot come back. The cost of doing so would be better spent on a new aircraft entirely considering
theres no tooling left or supply chains.

In short, Boeing have some other serious issues to deal with that will literally take billions and it gets worse by the day.
Playing fan boys doesn't help them. In any business sometimes you have to seed part of the market to the competition.
An upmarket department store doesn't try to sell $5 outfits. And likewise a burger joint doesn't try and sell meals for $40
each. In this case, a large order from DL isn't going to be enough to get them across the line. It's time for them to strategically
seed part of the market to the competition and focus on their important parts.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:11 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not convinced.


So if an airline has 787-8s on order, then decides to switch to 787-10s, Boeing will just say "OK, no problem."? Of course the airline is going to have to pay the difference in price for switching to a more expensive model. Sometimes common sense needs to be applied.

Checklist787 wrote:
United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?


Any airline that switches an order from a smaller model to a larger one will pay more. Switching back to the smaller model would likely have not incurred additional costs, but UA also ordered more frames both times.

Do you think Boeing let UA switch from 737-9s to 737-10s for free? :shakehead:

Checklist787 wrote:
I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

This no go is very significant


There is no "no go" until all 100 A321neos are delivered.

Upgrades cost. Airbus' business plan to pay for the hundreds of millions of euros of development costs is paid back by charging a premium. The xLR can be ordered years from now, DL and Airbus will negotiate.

Perhaps DL really wants the NMA? Perhaps a negotiating tactic.

I make money in engineering by having the base product almost with low profit (win the contract), but changes cost a cost+ healthy profit. I somehow doubt Airbus is different.

Right now xLRs sell at a high premium over the LR, much less plain A321NEO. Someday they won't. In between Airbus will price wisely.

Lightsaber
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mjoelnir
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:50 am

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Well you should be surprised because it doesn't cost DL anything to do it and E. Bastian didn't.

Strange isn't it? :)


Of course it will cost DL money to switch from an A321neo to an A321XLR. DL has plenty of time before they would need to pull the trigger.


I'm not convinced.

United for example ordered the A350-900 then switched A350-1000 then switched once more time to return to the A350-900. If that's right, United lost money just to do this at will?

I do not believe that DL will switch his A321neo to A321neoXLR and this indicates that they probably want to fly further with more passengers (or more passengers only) ...

Again if Bastian wanted he would have done so to be one of the first to have A321neoXLR in his fleet.

It cost money to switch to the more expensive model. It does not cost to switch per se. That is why a lot of airlines order the standard or smaller model as a place holder and switch at the last possibility moment. They fixed the slot not the model.

This "no go" is very significant
 
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:23 am

Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Boeing has shown it to airlines... and those airlines have not ordered it, have pushed Boeing to launch it so they could (eventually) order it, and in the end ordered the A321XLR.
What does that tell you?

Pretty much what I already wrote above, I think if NMA gets offered DL and the other US3 will find room for it in their fleets even after ordering A321 because NMA is going to be in a different payload/range class than A321, the big problem (still) is whether or not Boeing thinks it can find enough sales to justify building it.


Surely there is a replacement market for the oldest A330-200's, 767-300's and 787-8's, this last will have 15 years old in 2027 and also you have the growth market.

Don't forget that China has promised a boycott of American products in 2018.

Also is not the time for Boeing to launch it now because the 777-X and the 737MAX debacle

A launch in 2021-2022 for an EIS in 2027 seems more relevant to me ... IMO
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jagraham
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:49 am

Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
And we all know that Boeing have said they were about to launch it last year, the year before, etc...

Yes, (some) people within Boeing are in the know; and those won't speak (NDA...).
Yes, I'm sure most airlines CEOs have been briefed by Boeing as to what their next aircraft will be.
But, yes, airlines are tired of waiting on that (so far) mythical next game-changing aircraft from Boeing; UA just did that and ordered 50 A321XLR.

So, as it stands right now, the NSA/NMA/whatever-you-want-to-call-it remains is but a pipe dream for most people; and it will remain so until Boeing offers it for sale.

Yes, it's still in pipe dream state, one that Boeing has shown to airlines and has assigned staff to work on (I doubt the LinkedIn updates are fake news) but still one that can be halted at any point in time should Boeing choose to do so.

All three of the US Big 3 have ordered XLR, but I think all three would also find room in their fleets for NMA even after ordering XLR.

The problem is that Boeing's dwadling has made it even harder to get the sales volume needed to close a business case.

jagraham wrote:
But DL has already made it clear that its core TATL flying will be widebodies for the foreseeable future.

As mentioned above DL has a high pilot/crew pay rate.

It could be that legacies with higher wages need NMA capacity to make their business cases close whereas LCCs and "regionals" can get by with less expensive narrow bodies.

This math too hurts the NMA business case, since most of the airline growth is in the LCC space.



DL has openly said that the premium services make international flying profitable.

AA has a narrowbody premium aircraft - the A321T. 8 First Class pods and 20 Business class 2x2 seats. 102 seats total. In a plane designed to seat 220 or so.

NYC to LHR is the single largest and most profitable city pair. Configuring an A321XLR with A321T seating, while quite feasible technically, would be quite a waste of an expensive and precious slot. Even secondary cities which need narrowbody TATL to work need more seats to reduce the CASM.

Slot utilization and CASM is what it's about. The dominant TATL airlines are all high cost.
 
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:43 am

Strato2 wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. ....


FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.

And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.
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keesje
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:22 am

jetjack74 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. ....


FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.

And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.


The 75 was put out of production 20 years ago for a reason. A321NEO now has a backlog 3x the size of all 75s sold in 20 yrs, and growing. Times changed.

I think Boeing overspecied the MoM / NMA over the last 6 years, that's nobody moved. Plus the groupthink on their own strong position. Delta can't wait for an NMA anymore.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:36 am

keesje wrote:
jetjack74 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.

And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.


The 75 was put out of production 20 years ago for a reason. A321NEO now has a backlog 3x the size of all 75s sold in 20 yrs, and growing. Times changed.

I think Boeing overspecied the MoM / NMA over the last 6 years, that's nobody moved. Plus the groupthink on their own strong position. Delta can't wait for an NMA anymore.


16 years ago actually - and do you think things would have been different if the 757 was introduced 5 years later like the A320/1?

You implied times changed between 1983 and 1988, but not 1988 and 2020 as the A321 is a 1988 aircraft.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:52 am

The title of this thread says, "Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA".

Does it mean the people in Delta know what the NMA is or supposed to be?
You cannot be "Waiting To Order" something that you do not know what it exactly is.

Does anyone here know what the NMA is?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:54 am

jetjack74 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. ....


FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.

And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.


Yes to bypass the small part of the envelope where the 757 had an payload or range advantage, the last niche for the 757-200 gone. The other 90 % the A321 took with launch of the A321-200.
The much lighter more frugal frame will fly now the same payload further. Same payload, more range and considerable less fuel burn.
 
chiad
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:57 am

jetjack74 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
reltney wrote:
All interesting. The cheaper price seems to win over product quality every time. He stated he was waiting on Boeing and said the 321 with all the bells and whistles still can’t do what the 757 can but Boeing has their hands full. ....


FACT the A321XLR runs circles around the 757.

And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.


Remember that Boeing still has not done it.
Both Boeing and Airbus can build something "better" than a B757 (and a A321XLR for matters sake).
The challenge comes in doing it financially viable. NMA wil cost maybe $15B?!? I have no idea of what the A321XLR program could cost, but being a derative of the A321NEO I doubt that it would be more than maybe €100 million. And the A322 program should also cost a fraction of the NMA, but more than the A321XLR I think. I simply dont know.
The manufactures need to make a profit and the airlines needs to make a profit.
Can Boeing build a NMA that is so much more cheaper to operate that airlines are willing to pay the premium to get it compared to the A321XLR or A322.
I dont think so. Neither does Boeing it seems. Otherwise it would be a no brainer, wouldn't you think?
 
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keesje
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:19 am

1989worstyear wrote:
keesje wrote:
jetjack74 wrote:
And it only took them 40 years and 3 remakes to do it. Congratulations Airbus on a “fine” job.


The 75 was put out of production 20 years ago for a reason. A321NEO now has a backlog 3x the size of all 75s sold in 20 yrs, and growing. Times changed.

I think Boeing overspecied the MoM / NMA over the last 6 years, that's nobody moved. Plus the groupthink on their own strong position. Delta can't wait for an NMA anymore.


16 years ago actually - and do you think things would have been different if the 757 was introduced 5 years later like the A320/1?

You implied times changed between 1983 and 1988, but not 1988 and 2020 as the A321 is a 1988 aircraft.


A321 first flight was 1993, 757: 1982.

The 757 weighs 10t (~100 passengers) more than a A321.
Who wants to pay the fuel for flying 10t dead metal around, for decades?
The 757 maintenance program / costs looks more like a 767 than a 737. Also the engines.
I have nothing against the 757, it just became just too heavy & expensive for the airlines.

Designing a NMA, Boeing should watch out not getting too heavy & expensive. Twin aisle oval doesn't sound good in that respect.
It must be able to compete on 190 seats 4000NM and on 220 seats 700NM, 6 times a day. Otherwise it becomes a niche player.

Boeing better assume Airbus will do an affordable A322NEO and will put on 3-5% enhanced engines on the NEO's after 2025.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:30 am

PacoMartin wrote:
B757Forever wrote:
SoEWR wrote:
Anybody know why Delta hasn’t ordered a Boeing plane in a long time. It seems like all of their new buys have been Airbus planes.

Delta just recently received the last of a 130 aircraft order for 737-900ER aircraft. It hasn't been that long.


Delta orders from Airbus include 477 single-aisle jets and 60 dual-aisle jets
A220-100 45
A220-300 50
A321ceo 127
A321neo 100
A330-900 35
A350 25

Delta has only ordered 145 Boeing jets since 9/11

10 737-900ER 14. Mar. 2017 CF
20 737-900ER 16. Dec. 2015 CF
100 737-900ER 24. Aug. 2011 CF
------------- September 26, 2008 shareholder approve Delta & Northwest merger
2 777-200LR 31. Jul. 2008 GE
2 777-200LR 12. Dec. 2007 GE
1 777-200LR 29. Jun. 2007 GE
10 737-800 31. Dec. 2006 CF
----
1 767-300ER 19. Sep. 2000 GE
1 737-800 12. Apr. 2000 CF
1 737-800 8. Mar. 2000 CF
1 737-800 15. Feb. 2000 CF
1 737-800 3. Jan. 2000 CF
2 737-800 15. Dec. 1999 CF
1 757-200 15. Dec. 1999 PW
1 737-800 30. Nov. 1999 CF
1 757-200 30. Nov. 1999 PW
18 737-800 30. Sep. 1999 CF
6 737-800 17. Jun. 1999 CF
1 757-200 17. Jun. 1999 PW
6 767-300ER 17. Jun. 1999 GE
1 767-300ER 1. Apr. 1999 GE
30 737-800 22. Dec. 1998 CF
14 757-200 22. Dec. 1998 PW
3 767-300ER 22. Dec. 1998 GE
1 777-200LR 22. Dec. 1998 GE
1 737-800 19. May. 1998 CF
4 757-200 19. May. 1998 PW
1 767-300ER 19. May. 1998 GE
2 777-200ER 27. Mar. 1998 RR
6 777-200ER 13. Nov. 1997 RR
4 777-200LR 13. Nov. 1997 GE
10 737-700 10. Jun. 1997 CF
60 737-800 10. Jun. 1997 CF
5 757-200 10. Jun. 1997 PW
10 767-300ER 10. Jun. 1997 GE
21 767-400ER 10. Jun. 1997 GE
12 767-300ER 31. Jan. 1996 PW
-----
Delta signs an exclusive contract with Boeing. All such contracts are voided by the US government as a pre-condition of Boeing acquiring McDonnell Douglas.
-----
2 757-200 31. Dec. 1991 PW
4 757-200 19. Dec. 1991 PW
4 757-200 13. Jun. 1991 PW
2 767-300ER 1. Jun. 1991 PW
9 757-200 20. Dec. 1990 PW
4 767-300 20. Dec. 1990 PW
7 767-300ER 20. Dec. 1990 PW
1 767-300 9. Nov. 1990 GE
1 767-300ER 9. Nov. 1990 PW
5 737-300 14. Nov. 1989 CF
11 757-200 14. Nov. 1989 PW
6 767-300 14. Nov. 1989 GE
3 767-300ER 14. Nov. 1989 PW
2 767-300 22. Sep. 1988 GE
6 767-300ER 22. Sep. 1988 PW
6 767-300 24. Apr. 1987 GE
6 737-200 2. Oct. 1985 PW
4 767-300 27. Feb. 1985 GE
5 767-300 21. Feb. 1984 GE
33 737-200 21. Dec. 1982 PW
60 757-200 12. Nov. 1980 PW
5 727-200 15. Nov. 1978 PW
15 767-200 15. Nov. 1978 GE
24 727-200 7. Feb. 1977 PW
4 727-200 10. Nov. 1976 PW
21 727-200 11. May. 1976 PW
4 727-200 12. Jun. 1975 PW
19 727-200 17. Oct. 1974 PW
3 727-200 25. Feb. 1974 PW
8 727-200 30. May. 1973 PW
14 727-200 21. Sep. 1972 PW
14 727-200 29. Mar. 1972 PW
2 747-100 21. Jun. 1968 PW
3 747-100 26. Jun. 1967 PW
688


I'm not sure where you got that data but it is all kinds of wrong. Delta ordered 10 737-700 in 2006. And they certainly didn't order any 772LR's in 1997.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:31 am

HunterATL wrote:
One point to consider is that Delta believes the next round of pilot contracts at the US3 will make narrowbody aircraft across the Atlantic unprofitable. When asked about the A321XLR at its investor day, Delta stated that it believed only a modern, medium-range widebody with significant fuel economy could profitably serve secondary markets in Europe after the expected increase in pilot rates. DL stated that this concern has led it not to order the A321XLR, and that its present cost structure and profitability allowed it to take more time in making a decision.

I have no idea what rates the unions have proposed to AA, UA, or DL for this aircraft as part of future contracts or as amendments to present contracts, but DL management is clearly concerned.


I agree. Paying the crews widebodey payscales for a narrowbody just isn't going to fly.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:02 am

I think the added flexibility of the current frames is cutting the feet out under the idea of an dedicated NMA, MOM or 797 how ever what one calls it.

There is a lot of talk about the right size and that mainly, because there have been large narrow bodies 757-200/300 and small wide bodies 767-200/300 and A300/310 on the market.
But the picture has changed. While the narrow bodies have kept there short range capabilities, new engines and stretching has produced frames that fly more passengers at a time and have increased range. They do the work of several dedicated frames once available.

On the wide body side there are no 767 A300 sized frames any more available. But those frames have been outcompeted by the newer bigger frames available.
The 787 does fly a medium haul or long haul route for nearly the same trip cost as a 767-300, while offering more passenger capacity and significantly more cargo possibilities. Similar points you can say about the A330neo.

The CASM advantage the bigger frames of a family have over the smaller frames of a family, 787-8, 787-9, 787-10 each bigger frame offers a better CASM than the next smaller one, makes the design of a smaller wide body with better CASM, to beat out competing narrow bodies, extremely difficult

It is the question if it is even feasible to design a small wide body frame that improve on the CASM of the bigger frames. I know the idea sounds good, but I think it is unobtainable.
 
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:11 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
And they certainly didn't order any 772LR's in 1997.


Boeing's website shows DL ordering 4 x 77L and 6 x 77E on 13 Nov 1997. If I had to guess, they were originally ordered as 77Es and later converted to 77Ls.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:19 am

scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
And they certainly didn't order any 772LR's in 1997.


Boeing's website shows DL ordering 4 x 77L and 6 x 77E on 13 Nov 1997. If I had to guess, they were originally ordered as 77Es and later converted to 77Ls.


Delta ordered 8 772ER with the last one being delivered in 2002. The 772LR order was placed in 2006.

I imagine some intern entered the data for the website and well...you get what you pay for.
 
sabby
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:04 am

I think there's something else people have missed in 757, it has 38m wingspan, 2m larger than the Code C gates. That is a big advantage to A321 family. Personally, I think 757 is the best looking narrow body aircraft ever made (C series a very close second) with great performance, but it is time to let it go.
 
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:43 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
And they certainly didn't order any 772LR's in 1997.


Boeing's website shows DL ordering 4 x 77L and 6 x 77E on 13 Nov 1997. If I had to guess, they were originally ordered as 77Es and later converted to 77Ls.


Delta ordered 8 772ER with the last one being delivered in 2002. The 772LR order was placed in 2006.

I imagine some intern entered the data for the website and well...you get what you pay for.


Well, this is what Boeing says:
Image
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Checklist787
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:33 am

keesje wrote:


The 75 was put out of production 20 years ago for a reason.

A321NEO now has a backlog 3x the size of all 75s sold in 20 yrs, and growing. Times changed.



Boeing thought the 737-900NG could work.

It was a false belief and a Boeing error! The 757 was completed 16 years ago, not 20 years ago...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:36 am

747megatop wrote:
Well, why would they do up front work? They would need formal board approval to launch the type and offer it to the market. Only then do they do the bulk of the "hard" development & design work. Other wise they would have done design/development work & would be cutting metal for something the market may not order/want.

Airbus and Boeing always do up front work before a public launch. There is no rule saying how much work is allowed to be done. Formal board approval does not have to be made public.

When an aircraft has a public launch the airlines that order it have already signed agreements in private. They do not make the decision to order the aircraft on the day of the public launch. The airlines would already have accurate specs of the aircraft months or even years before the public launch. This requires significant engineering work to be done and the more work that is done the airlines will get more accurate performance data, pricing and delivery timeline.

The 797 would probably have launched around the time of the first 737MAX crash which would have given it a normal timeline to hit the 2025 service date.

Pushing the public launch 18 months does not change the service date. Boeing would not pause development. The airlines would already have verbal and/or written agreements in place to order the aircraft and have rough delivery dates.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:10 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
It is the question if it is even feasible to design a small wide body frame that improve on the CASM of the bigger frames. I know the idea sounds good, but I think it is unobtainable.

It is actually extremely easy.

If you take the same fuselage size and make three cleansheet designs with a range of 4000nm, 6000nm and 8000nm you end up with significant performance differences. Optimising for a shorter range gives huge fuel savings.

Take a A330/787 sized cabin you would end up with these rough specifications if they were fully optimised.

4000nm - 100t empty weight, 50m wingspan, 180t MTOW, 55,000lb thrust engines.

6000nm - 120t empty weight, 60m wingspan, 230t MTOW, 70,000lb thrust engines.

8000nm - 140t empty weight 70m wingspan 280t MTOW, 85,000lb thrust engines.

The wing gets bigger and so does fuel capacity, engine thrust etc.

Now the two 797 will be optimised for two thirds of the range of the 787 family. That will easily give a 10-20% fuel burn improvement per passenger straight off the bat.

Take the 787-9 and 787-10 numbers
787-9 7635nm range, 232m2 cabin, 254t MTOW.
787-10 6430nm range, 265m2 cabin, 254t MTOW.

Reduce the numbers to two thirds
797-8 becomes 5090nm, 156m2 cabin, 170t MTOW.
797-9 becomes 4285nm, 176m2 cabin, 170t MTOW.

Fairly close to what has been reported. As it will be Boeings second carbon design they might be able to get an extra 10m2 of cabin area or the MTOW dropped by 5t and still manage to hit the design range due to improved engines.
Last edited by RJMAZ on Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Olddog
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Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:17 pm

It is so easy, and yet Boeing does not launch it. I wonder why ?
 
StTim
Posts: 3754
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:21 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
747megatop wrote:
Well, why would they do up front work? They would need formal board approval to launch the type and offer it to the market. Only then do they do the bulk of the "hard" development & design work. Other wise they would have done design/development work & would be cutting metal for something the market may not order/want.

Airbus and Boeing always do up front work before a public launch. There is no rule saying how much work is allowed to be done. Formal board approval does not have to be made public.

When an aircraft has a public launch the airlines that order it have already signed agreements in private. They do not make the decision to order the aircraft on the day of the public launch. The airlines would already have accurate specs of the aircraft months or even years before the public launch. This requires significant engineering work to be done and the more work that is done the airlines will get more accurate performance data, pricing and delivery timeline.

The 797 would probably have launched around the time of the first 737MAX crash which would have given it a normal timeline to hit the 2025 service date.

Pushing the public launch 18 months does not change the service date. Boeing would not pause development. The airlines would already have verbal and/or written agreements in place to order the aircraft and have rough delivery dates.


They would need to be cutting metal and letting contracts before public launch. We cannot also forget that they have only one program producing cash and have said they will be reducing capex and probably R&D. The MAX is going to impact the timeline for any new frame significantly.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8487
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:30 pm

I can't tell if you're trying to be facetious or instead know little of finance. Lots of things that can be done (available technology, materials, and manpower) don't get done because they don't have a sufficiently high return on investment. There was an ambition a few decades ago to use eight nuclear reactors solely to pump water from the Mississippi River basin ~700 miles and 3,000 feet up to (very arid) West Texas. The U.S. had built maybe 100 commercial reactors by that time - it certainly could have undertaken a project of that scale. Farmers didn't want the water at commercial prices, however.

Now, if you can spend somebody else's money in the form of launch aid later deemed illegal by the WTO -- sure, go ahead and build that A380. No need to worry about ROI. https://www.reuters.com/article/wto-air ... SL2N24G18K
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 633
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:59 pm

I think sooner rather than later Delta and Boeing will commit to launching the NMA. A symbolic move on Delta's part in restoring faith in the only large U.S.- based aircraft manufacturer. Something tells me Delta will not turn away from Boeing this time, and perhaps Delta's technical expertise in multiple areas would help restore strength in the NMA momentum.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Delta “Waiting To Order” Boeing NMA

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:04 pm

Olddog wrote:
It is so easy, and yet Boeing does not launch it. I wonder why ?

Because the 737MAX is grounded.

I'm shocked how people can't understand how bad that would look.

Boeing did not allow any media to come to the rollout of the 737-10 two months ago. Boeing did not mention it on their social media either.

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